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Top GOP Super PACs Abandoning Two Republican Incumbents; Can A Democrat Win A House Race In Arkansas?; Byron Donalds' Quest To Win Florida's Undecided Black Voters; GOP Strategists Warn Party Is Losing Ground With Black Voters. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 13, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:31:28]

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: Now to a stark sign of GOP alarm. Two major Republican super PACs aligned with President Trump and Congressional GOP leaders are abandoning two House Republican incumbents. The groups are canceling all remaining ads for Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa after internal polling showed their re-election chances fading.

Vice President JD Vance was asked about those decisions this morning. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JD VANCE (R), VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So I think the nature of a midterm election is sometimes these races have more of an individual rather than a national character. We know that we're swimming against some serious historical trends here, but I think that we have as good a chance as I've ever seen to really defy those historical trends. So we're not giving up anywhere, we're just trying to win the races that we can and focus where we can.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: So on the one hand, Jessica, he says that they have individual characteristics, not a national character, and then he talks about historical trends. But big picture here, these are two seats. We've already seen Republicans give up on the vacant Republican Don Bacon seat. He's retiring.

That's three seats. I know that they're being --

JESSICA TAYLOR, SENATE AND GOVERNORS EDITOR, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: There's some redistricting --

BASH: They're being aggressive and redistricting, so there could be pickups.

TAYLOR: That's only (INAUDIBLE) about four to five seats. BASH: Yes. So give us the big picture here three weeks out.

TAYLOR: I mean, the big picture is that Democrats are heavily favored to take back the House, and right now our estimate at the political report is that Democrats could pick up between 9 and 19 seats. These two seats in Iowa and New Jersey, we recently shifted from our toss-up to our lean Democrat column, and so these are some of the first that we could see fall on election night, that Tom Kean seat, that he was gone for months without explanation. So I think there are some other characteristics at play in that race.

BASH (?): Yes.

TAYLOR: Mariannette Miller-Meeks, she won by only a handful of votes in 2020. This is a race that Republicans feel like has been trending away from them for a while in Iowa as well.

BASH: Yes. I mean, Iowa, nobody expects to like, you know, change very much in big picture, but Iowa is -- excuse me, New Jersey doesn't -- the expectation isn't that.

TAYLOR: Right.

BASH: But Iowa, that's one of the big stories this election is how much it will change, and this is an indication at least that one of the key districts will. We talked a little bit about redistricting. I want you to listen to what the House Speaker, Mike Johnson, said this morning. He was asked broadly about the Republicans' chances and about pulling out of these two races. Listen to his answer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R), HOUSE SPEAKER: In the deep red states, we've got to make sure that we defend the seats. Some of these districts have been redrawn, as you know, over the last cycle, and so you have new territory. We have even incumbents who are moved into areas that have brand-new voters. So we've got to do all the fundamentals and do it right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: So he's speaking from Texas there. Redistricting was their deal. The reason for redistricting mid-decade is because the Republicans pushed for it. That answer really kind of boggles the mind.

ALEX GANGITANO, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, POLITICO: That originally was something in President Trump's toolkit of here's how we can hold on to Congress. Let's focus on redistricting. And now that they're saying this could actually change things not in our favor, or the fact that Speaker Johnson was also not really taking this as the same way as Vice President Vance.

Vance saying, we have to focus where we can. Johnson saying, well, there's other factors at play here, was an interesting answer. And we're seeing Republican donors also have been telling me that we just need to hold on to the Senate here. If the House has to go, if other senators, you know, we have to allocate money from one place to another. At the end of the day, that's all we have left. And I think the Vice President's line of saying we have to allocate money from one place to another. At the end of the day, that's all we have left.

[12:35:06]

And I think the Vice President's line of saying we have to focus where we can is really speaking to that. That they know, as Jessica says, that it's really swaying aggressively in Democrats' favor for the House.

BASH: Oh, go ahead. Quick.

JASMINE WRIGHT, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE WASHINGTON SUN: Yes, I would just say that, look, I think Texas is going to be where everybody looks at to see whether or not the vote -- the redistricting effort actually fails, right? That is the state that's going to make or break whether or not people redistricting in the future.

BASH: All right. Don't go anywhere. We're going to take a quick break.

Coming up, can a Democrat breakthrough in a deep red district in Arkansas? I'm going to speak with a candidate trying to unseat one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress. Stay with us.

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[12:40:04]

BASH: Since Arkansas Republicans redistricted in 2021, no Democrat has come close to winning a House seat. Not competitive at all until now. The Cook Political Report moved the Arkansas second district from solid to likely Republican, and Democrats added the second district to their red to blue program. That means they're putting money behind Chris Jones, an ordained pastor and also a nuclear engineer. It's an effort to unseat Congressman French Hill. He's the powerful chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

Chris Jones joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. President Trump won your district by 15 percentage points only two years ago. Your opponent, as I mentioned, is French Hill. He won by even more.

You likely can't win without getting some of those voters to vote for you. So what is your message to them, to win over Trump Hill voters?

CHRIS JONES (D), ARKANSAS CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: Great question. Thank you for having me on here, Dana.

Look, I wear this bee on my lapel because it's a reminder to do what other people say is impossible, because they said the bumblebee couldn't fly. And when I think about this race, that -- we need that reminder. But what we found, though, is that Independents who are breaking for me in every poll at least by 35 points or more are saying they're sick and tired of us going into these unwanted wars of choice. They're sick and tired of their gas prices hurting them. Our farmers are hurting. They're going bankrupt and committing suicide at a rate higher than any other in the country. And our veterans are hurting because they're not getting VA care. All those dynamics are at play as we go out.

And then to line it all on top, French Hill, who's the most powerful banker in Congress, used his power to remove the $5 cap on overdraft and junk fees. And so folks are wondering, if he's using his power for the big banks, then why is he not helping us? And they're ready for a new direction.

BASH: Well, you mentioned Independents moving your way. You also need Republicans, right?

JONES: Absolutely. Absolutely. And the Republicans were promised certain things. And I've been all across the district. When we started this race, I went to all eight counties and did a town hall. Since then, I've done probably 30, 40 town halls in the district, especially in places where they were promised certain things.

They were promised no new wars. They were promised the price would go down at the very beginning. They were promised support for farmers. They're not getting what they were promised. And they understand that this is in large part because folks like French Hill in Congress are not keeping a check on the White House.

BASH: The National Democratic Party is still deeply unpopular nationwide, and I'm guessing that is also true in your district in Arkansas. What differentiates you from a typical Democrat?

JONES: Yes, so when I ran for governor, I went to every county in this state and actually walked a mile in every county. What I heard consistently was that they're sick and tired of people showing up, and then win or lose, they disappear. So I continue to be engaged and on the ground, and we brought that into the campaign.

The difference here is that we have deep relationships throughout the district, and they're saying at the end of the day, they recognize that I am Chris Jones, and I understand that I want the Arkansas voters, the folks in this district, to be my boss, not some party.

BASH: Now, even though, as I mentioned, Democrats have added you to their red to blue program, meaning you're getting some money, you're still being outspent, four to one in your race.

JONES: Yes.

BASH: Do you think National Democrats need to invest more there now that it seems like you're in the hunt?

JONES: 100 percent. Look, we've said -- because we knew the dynamics on the ground, we've said from the beginning that this is the most competitive congressional seat in the South, and it's proven out. What you're noticing, though, is that the Republicans understand how much at risk French Hill is, and so that's why they're dumping money into it.

So 100 percent National Democrats, go to chrisjonesforcongress.com, check me out, donate, because we need your support to win this race.

BASH: This is a heavy question and not much time, but I'm going to go for it. You were trained as a nuclear engineer at MIT. You've written extensively about how to prevent an AI apocalypse. You also are not an AI doomer. What would you do in Congress vis-a-vis AI if you are elected?

JONES: No, great question. I'll give you the short answer, because I am a nuclear engineer. I'm also a rocket scientist. There are frameworks that exist already that are helpful. You know, nuclear power, civilian nuclear power is great. Nuclear weapons are not great.

There's the nonproliferation treaty, which gives us the framework on how to advance civilian power without the dangerous nuclear weapons. That framework can apply to AI.

BASH: Wow, that really was a short version. I appreciate it. You must be campaigning out there on this issue and others.

Chris Jones, thank you --

JONES: Nonstop.

BASH: Thank you so much for being with me. I really appreciate it.

And we have invited --

JONES: Thank you.

BASH: -- the incumbent Republican French Hill on this program, and we hope to have him on soon.

[12:45:03]

Up next, Byron Donalds could make history in Florida, but first he has to win over Black voters. Why he says his party doesn't know how to do it, next.

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BASH: Byron Donalds is poised to make history as Florida's first Black governor if he can beat Democrat David Jolly.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID JOLLY (D), FLORIDA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: The final front and the voters that might decide this race are the currently undecided Black voters in the state of Florida. Someone said to me, are you concerned, Jolly? As a Democrat, you're only getting about 80, 81 percent of the Black voter. And I said, not as concerned as Byron should be that he's only getting 9 percent from his own community.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BASH: And the Washington Sun, Jasmine Wright, our colleague and friend here, profiles Donalds' quest to win those exact voters, despite nearly a dozen Republican operatives and officials warning that nationwide the party effort to keep Black voters is shrinking in Florida.

[12:50:00]

Donalds is barnstorming and voting and campaigning, I should say, in the Black community. His assessment, quote, "I just think they don't know how to do some of this. We've had to build new muscle that typically is not built in Republican campaigns."

Jasmine, this is such a great piece, and it's so interesting.

WRIGHT: Thank you.

BASH: We actually played an ad from Donalds yesterday where he is leaning into the history of this moment if he does win. But that's new for him.

WRIGHT: Yes, it's new. And I think this story is interesting because it really tells two stories. It tells Byron Donalds owned evolution into perhaps embracing his race, something that he is reticent to talk about in terms of his campaign. As he pushes deeper and deeper into the Black community, he told me that he wants to get north of 20 percent, which would be the highest of any Republican candidate for governor got from the Black community.

And he's doing that by going to barbershops, by going to churches, by really talking to the key locators and trying to say we may not agree on anything like DEI, something that he's against, like the Affordable Care Act, something that people like that he does not like, but I will be candid with you.

At the same time, as he's pushing deeper into the community, trying to draw out more votes, GOP strategists across the country tell me that the Republican Party writ large is doing the exact opposite.

BASH: Let me read a quote from your story on that very issue. "'You know how you buy some stuff, put it in the garage and forget that it's there? That's where the effort is at, ' a Black GOP strategist told you, describing the Republican Party's efforts to win the support of Black voters."

WRIGHT: I mean, that's a stunning quote because it comes just two years after the President to win 2024, put together this coalition that encompassed a lot of Black voters, specifically Black men. I think he got 15 percent of the vote --

BASH: Yes, we can put up the results as you're talking about it.

WRIGHT: 21 percent of Black men. That's something that no Republican candidate had really gotten to that point. And so they really talked about this generational shift of Black voters, specifically Black men, to the Republican Party. And my question going into this was, whether or not Republicans were actually keeping up the effort to retain those voters in the midterm election.

And the answer I got basically was no, right? And they say, you know, a couple of different reasons. President Trump is not on the ballot. He has a unique relationship with the Black community and all these other factors. But what fundamentally people told me is that there's not the resources, attention or the know-how, according to Byron Donalds, to actually keep those important voters.

And so now you're seeing that across the country, there's just not that effort to make sure that those generational voters from 2024 have come over to 2026.

BASH: I didn't want to interrupt you, but just for people looking at the graphic we just had up, we showed what you mentioned, that the President got 15 percent of the Black vote in 2024. There you see it again. What you're seeing on the right there, this is the generic ballot questioning how Black voters will go. Only 7 percent say right now that they will vote for a Republican.

The RNC is pushing for Black voters to move over beyond Florida. Obviously, Florida is one of them. Michigan is another. North Carolina and Georgia, they had. I'm not sure how aggressive they're going to be in those two states where they've basically given up on the Senate race, at least.

But in Michigan, it's another area where you're seeing a dynamic where Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate, is trying to appeal to Black voters who might not be really thrilled with the idea of voting for Abdul El-Sayed. Let's listen to an ad that he just put out yesterday.

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NAURA EVANS, MICHIGAN VOTER: I voted for Barack Obama, but this year I'm voting for Mike Rogers.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Abdul is way too arrogant and way too extreme.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He will kill our jobs and make our communities less safe.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mike Rogers will get to work for us.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Better schools, safer streets, more jobs and affordable health care.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And this is like a critical part of the electorate in Michigan that Mike Rogers really does have to do well in if he has any chance of flipping the seat.

GANGITANO: That's right. It's such a critical voting bloc. And it's also part of him trying to rebuild the coalition that won the president -- the White House in 2024. How can he get into there? And is the Black community that lane that can win him Michigan? I think him leaning in on Abdul El-Sayed as the issue instead of what can I do for Black voters, it's a lot of this man is too extreme and you should be fearful. It's a lot of what we're hearing Republicans in general, the way they talk about Abdul El-Sayed.

But they're hoping that the Black community will read into that as, we don't want this kind of far left leaning wave in our community that we're seeing in other places. And maybe he can monopolize on that.

BASH: Jessica?

TAYLOR: Well, Haley Stevens, that was Abdul's opponent in that primary that just narrowly lost, she did -- she ran very strong with Black voters. When you look at the areas where he was weakest, it was with Black voters in and around Detroit, other suburbs. And so this is what I'm talking with Democrats.

And remember, this is a seat that they're having to defend. So if they lose this seat, that puts them back to the -- from the four that they need.

[12:55:00]

So they are watching that Black margin -- that margin of Black voters in Michigan very closely to see if Abdul El-Sayed after a very bitter primary battle can heal that rift. So I think the onus is almost on El-Sayed at this point to do that.

BASH: Yes, and he had Kamala Harris in --

TAYLOR: Right.

BASH: -- he's going to be campaigning with Barack Obama.

TAYLOR: Barack Obama, yes.

BASH: So he gets it.

TAYLOR: No accident.

BASH: He -- yes, it's definitely not an accident. It's a very clear campaign by both parties.

Thank you so much. Great reporting, Jasmine.

WRIGHT: Thank you.

BASH: Thank you to you as well. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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