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New Polls: Talarico, Paxton Deadlocked In Texas Senate Race; Vance Jokes About Talarico's Sexuality, Search History; Inflation Got Worse In September As Gas Prices Stay High; GOP Candidates Pushed On Iran War In Key Senate Debates. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 14, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

WOLF BLITZER, CNN CO-ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: And thanks for me as well. And thanks to our viewers for joining us this morning. Inside Politics with our friend and colleague, Dana Bash, starts right now.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Have a great day everyone.

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Can James Talarico defy political history and end a Democratic Senate drought older than he is?

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 20 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. Tonight, the Democrat trying to flip deep red Texas blue and help his party take back the Senate will face voters directly. You're looking at live pictures of the stage where James Talarico will field questions from voters at the CNN Jubilee Town Hall, moderated by Erin Burnett.

Two new polls out today show just how competitive this race is. Marist and University of Texas both find no clear leader between Talarico and President Trump's handpicked GOP candidate Ken Paxton. When it comes to independents, Talarico has a big advantage, leading Paxton by 22 points.

I want to get straight to Roanoke, Texas, outside of Fort Worth. Jeff, I know you've been talking to voters all across the state. What are you hearing?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, there is a sense of hope and optimism among Democratic voters, unlike we have seen, and we actually have seen it, but it's not quite the same flavor. When you talk to Democrats here about why they think this could be the year to finally elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate from Texas. They point to two things. They point to the weakness in their view of the Republican challenger Ken Paxton, who has a long list of controversies, of course, and they also point to just the economy and the hunger for change. So, Democrats, though, are not the most important sector voters in this Texas race. Independents, as you mentioned, certainly are key to this coalition, but Republicans are as well. And talking to so many voters and strategists here in recent days, it is likely the number of Republicans who decide to join the Talarico campaign and vote for him that could make a difference here.

We had a conversation with many of them, but a couple of these are very instructive. Glen Whitley is a former Republican Tarrant County judge in Fort Worth. He is supporting Talarico, but he makes clear that not all Republicans are ready to take that leap.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: Is there some reluctance for lifelong Republicans to vote for Democrat?

GLEN WHITLEY, REPUBLICAN TALARICO SUPPORTER: Yes, there is. And especially, as you move into East Texas or into West Texas. They just, you know, to vote for a Democrat is a really long step, and that's what I think keeps -- I've heard a lot of people say they're just going to stay at home or they're not going to vote in that particular race.

ZELENY: President Trump has come down to Texas several times in the last few weeks, urging people to vote for Ken Paxton. When you see that, is that persuasive at all to you?

PETE NODECKER, REPUBLICAN TALARICO SUPPORTER: No. If anything, it's -- it persuades me to go the opposite direction even more.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: And that was -- that was lifelong Republican Pete Nodecker from Fort Worth, and he voted for Trump twice. He is done with Trump. He is infuriated by the Republican Party because of the attacks on the Capitol back on January 6, 2021. But he said that he believes that when President Trump comes here to campaign, it does not motivate other Republican voters.

So, Dana, the reason that we're talking and -- about these Republican voters is a question hanging over this race, is how many of them decide to vote for Talarico, or how many of them decide to perhaps leave the Senate race blank on their ballot? That could help determine the outcome on Election Day.

BASH: Yeah. I mean it really is. It's a question of -- lots of questions, but one of them that you were pointing out as a question of enthusiasm or just disgust. Let's quickly talk about tonight's town hall with James Talarico because it's going to be different from what we've seen before.

ZELENY: It absolutely is. It's going to be fascinating to watch because James Talarico is going to be face to face with Republican voters, Democratic voters, and independent voters. Our colleague Erin Burnett will be on stage, asking and guiding these questions. But Dana, a very different part of tonight's town hall is a segment called, change my mind. James Talarico is going to be sitting directly across from undecided and other voters, just a few feet across from them and engaging in a dialog and trying to persuade those voters.

We'll be able to see in real time if it works or not. And undecided voters are such a key part of this electorate here. It's one of the reasons that Republicans are spending so much money in Texas, trying to remind voters of some of the liberal positions that James Talarico has, trying to present him as unacceptable. But again, watching his answers tonight, I think will be so instructive in this Texas race, which is at the cornerstone of the Republicans' quest to try and hold on to their Senate majority. Dana?

[12:05:00]

BASH: Yeah. People who aren't familiar with Jubilee and the way they do things, that is kind of a key part of how they present them -- themselves in their interviews, which is to change my mind. It'll be really cool to see that tonight, along with Erin and everybody else. Thank you so much, Jeff. Appreciate that.

ZELENY: You bet.

BASH: I have some terrific reporters here at the table with me. Aaron Blake, I'm going to start with you and just put up another number. You saw the top lines that it's no clear leader on these two new polls, but in the Maris poll, one of the things that really struck us is the question of whether or not these voters strongly support their candidate. James Talarico has 84 percent, very sticky. Ken Paxton, 64. I mean, that's not nothing. That's pretty good, but it kind of goes to show how the people who are already in for Talarico are in, and the Paxton support is certainly not as intense.

AARON BLAKE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah. I'm glad you focused on that number because that was really the contrast that stood out for me from this poll. It's actually the first poll that I've seen in a little while, and it's a likely voter poll, so it's a little bit different from what we've seen before, that showed Talarico underwater in his personal image. 49 percent disliked him, 43 percent liked him, but Paxton was 22 points underwater on that question. He really hasn't improved his reputation since that very difficult primary with Cornyn.

There was some thought on the right that maybe like, he was just that unpopular because Cornyn dropped all this money on him and he was going to get better overtime. We haven't seen that. His voters are still very lukewarm on him. He might get over the line because it's Texas and it's a very close race. But if he does get over the line, it's going to be because of those voters who don't feel strongly about him.

BASH: And Jamie, that's really key. It's not as if voters in Texas don't know who he is. He's been on the stage for a long time, and in a lot of the headlines that he's gotten over the years have not been positive. I mean, they've been scandalous, including and especially the bitter fight with his -- with his now ex-wife, who is also in Republican politics, but even just recently, here are some headlines. Ken Paxton partied in Dubai with fugitives ahead of high-stakes tech Senate race. That's the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post. Ken Paxton took campaign funds from donors with interest before his office.

JAMIE GANGEL, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Right. So, I think what we're seeing here is something that actually a Democrat said to me. They are hopeful about Texas. They sort of say it in a whisper because they were afraid, it's like Lucy and Charlie Brown and the football again. That at the last minute they're going to lose.

And what the strategist said to me was, it's not predictable. But then went on to say exactly what you said about enthusiasm and those numbers we saw. You know, is that enthusiasm gap enough to make hope? You know, come to be, or you know, on the other hand, I just think we should talk about independence here again for a minute, which Jeff Zeleny raised, are they going to come out and vote for Talarico? Will they just stay home? These are the things that this is why it's a toss-up. We won't -- we don't know yet.

BASH: Yeah, Marianna?

MARIANNA SOTOMAYOR, CAPITOL HILL CORRESPONDENT, PUCK: And also, I would say back to Paxton and just like all of these headlines that you've noted just happening overtime. I mean, it gives the Democrats, especially Talarico an argument on corruption, right? Because we've seen this in polling too, Democrats, Republicans, Independents on the corruption issue. That is one that is resonating so much among voters, and you could easily just say, and Democrats are saying, that all of the things that Paxton has done leads to something that -- something corrupt while he has been in office.

BASH: Yeah.

SOTOMAYOR: Whether that is a strong enough of an argument, I mean, we'll see. We're in this place of like -- and does it move voters or not?

BASH: And then one of the counter arguments that we are hearing from Republicans is a little bit offbeat but pretty consistent. And the vice president of the United States gave an example last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J. D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES: Now, before we get started, I love you too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Talarico. You got to wonder what the internet search history of a man like that looks like. Ladies and gentlemen, you don't want to find out. Neither do I.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:10:00]

BASH: This is -- this has been kind of the narrative that they've been pushing for a while that he's beta. He's not married. He is, you know, raising questions that are unsubstantiated on this, certainly on the sexuality, and I would argue maybe irrelevant. But this is a state in which you heard from that former judge talking to Jeff Zeleny.

The DNA for the last several decades has been so GOP that if you hear even something that could raise alarm bells in your mind from somebody like the vice president of the United States, you're thinking about voting for Talarico, maybe you won't.

BLAKE: Yeah. And we've seen, you know, the president and his allies call James Talarico a vegan, even though he's not a vegan. There was a --

BASH: Such a sick burn.

BLAKE: Yeah. There was an ad from a pro Paxton super PAC that had James Talarico kind of a cutout in a dress. It's very unsubtle what they're trying to do here. The thing I thought about when I saw that though is, you know, there are a lot of very powerful gay people who serve in the Trump administration in the White House --

BASH: Like the treasury secretary.

BLAKE: -- the treasury secretary for one. And I do wonder, you know, this is not subtle what they're doing here. They are trying to turn this into a negative, and you have to wonder how some of those people feel about that.

GANGEL: Can I just add? It's pretty pathetic if on October 14, that's the best thing you have going for you. And I would just add to that millions of people are voting now. They're sending in ballots. They're early voting in some states. There doesn't seem to be an October surprise.

BASH: You just woke up the surprise.

GANGEL: The universe --

BASH: I say it is what it is. If there's a surprise, then it's just -- it's more news that we cover, you know, maybe, maybe not. Coming up. Here's something that may not be a surprise to you at home, prices are rising, paychecks can't keep up. The last inflation report before the midterms is delivering a brutal reality for Republicans and President Trump. Plus, can Democrats hold the governor's mansion in one of the swingiest states in America? I'll speak with the candidate trying to do just that this hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The war is going to end very soon, and when it does, your prices are going to come tumbling down. They already are. We have economic success like nobody thought possible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: That was President Trump campaigning last night in Alaska, promising that prices are already falling. But today's final inflation report before the midterms delivered a different verdict. Americans are paying more. Inflation is going up, not down. 3.7 percent in September, the highest since May. And it's not just gasoline, which is driving that, it's plane tickets, car tune-ups, power bills, and more.

This is a number, Marianna, that is kind of a red flashing light, but it's not news to any Republican on the ballot because they're hearing it in real terms with real live voters on how their lives are right now.

SOTOMAYOR: You're right. It's not new at all. And frankly, I was talking to a couple of Republican strategists today. In light of this, and especially when you talk to those who have been covering a number of House races, they're like, this is already more or less baked in. You're seeing Republicans actually pulling money from states where -- or districts where they were believed that they were more competitive in to try and shore up Republicans in safe seats because they genuinely did not think that it would become such a tough environment for them.

And I mean, as much money as even MAGA Inc. has tried to pour in, a number of people that I've talked to have just not seen those races tighten in the way that they even expected, simply because again, voters already know what's happening in the economy.

BASH: They already know, and let's just illustrate what they know and what they're feeling. We're going to use the numbers to sort of help hit it home. So, we're going to show you wages versus inflation. OK, how much people are making versus how much things cost. So, this is January 2025 when President Trump was inaugurated again. Red is what you make, and the orange is what it costs. What you make is more than what it costs. This is where we are now. What you make is lower than what it costs. It's as simple and sad as that.

BLAKE: Yeah. And I think a big part of this too is that, you know, the Trump people like to always point to the fact that inflation actually was higher during the Biden administration. It actually went above 7 percent. Look at the same point in that election cycle, the 2022 cycle. Inflation was over 7 percent heading into that election. The differences are that people knew that that had something to do with COVID. They didn't totally blame the Biden administration on it, versus now they have these things that they can point to the Trump administration on the tariffs and the Iran war specifically.

And the other thing is that chart that you pointed out, the inflation is not significantly higher than when Trump took office, but it is not -- no longer keeping pace with wage gains, and so that's where it really hurts people.

[12:20:00] BASH: All right, everybody, stand by. Up next, the great GOP distancing act from one debate stage to another. Battleground Republicans tried to move away from President Trump on some issues dominating the midterms.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: There were three Senate debates last night in three key races in Maine, Georgia, and Iowa. The Iran war was a major topic in all of them. Here's how two of the Republicans on stage, Susan Collins in Maine and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, navigated questions about an end to the war.

[12:25:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ms. Hinson, would you switch your vote today on the War Powers Act in order to end the conflict in Iran, yes or no? 30 seconds.

REP. ASHLEY HINSON (R-IA): I don't think we need another resolution on the House floor. I think the president and the U.S. military can bring it to the end.

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): I voted with the Democrats to bring the war to an end, but there were not sufficient votes for that to happen. In addition, I agree that the president did not have a good plan. He should have anticipated the closure of the straight of her moves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Jamie, those two answers are so telling because you have -- these are two GOP seats. One's open, and one is obviously incumbent Susan Collins, desperate to hold on to them, and trying to find a way to push back on the Iran war and do it so that you still have the Trump base, which still exists with you, but nodding to the people who aren't happy about the ramifications of this war, you want to come your way.

GANGEL: But Susan Collins was so different. It's interesting. So, she said three words that she didn't have to say. She said she voted with the Democrats. She wanted that out there and that's me. Look, the Republicans don't want the war, they don't want these gas and diesel prices. But the reality is, what you see there is the difference between this balancing act of how far they're willing to go. Susan Collins in Maine is going to go further.

A Republican strategist said to me last night that the other problem that we're seeing, and this is a little bit different from the war, is you know, do you want Trump to come vote for you? And this strategist said in races he's looking at that his candidates don't want Trump to come because they're afraid it will motivate Democrats to turn out.

BASH: Yeah. It's a very tough balancing act for these Republicans. Speaking of balancing acts, Josh Turek, who you saw on the stage there, the Democrat running against Republican Ashley Hinson. He's trying to turn -- he's a Democrat, trying to turn a red state blue, and his answer on immigration was really telling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What about those who are here illegally, but they have not committed a criminal offense? Should there be a pathway to citizenship for them? You have 60 seconds.

JOSH TUREK, (D) IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: Not a pathway to citizenship for them. And we need to have an earned pathway to citizenship for those that have come here legally. Now I would say that I agree with Representative Nunn, with Representative Miller-Meeks, and Representative Feenstra that we should pass the Dignity Act, which provides work permits to individuals in that situation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Except for the pathway to citizenship for others who are not criminals, the rest of that answer was putting himself squarely in the lane of Republicans in Iowa.

BLAKE: Yeah, very interesting response. I think if you would have asked a couple of years ago if a Democratic Senate candidate in a major race would come out against the pathway to citizenship, that's a pretty stunning development because the pathway to citizenship is actually still pretty popular. It's pretty broadly popular as part of a comprehensive immigration reform agenda.

But we are seeing candidates like Turek in Alaska -- and like the candidates in Alaska, Ohio, Texas, they are taking these kind of more moderate to conservative positions on some of these very culturally sensitive issues, and I think that's a very telling example of that.

BASH: And another issue that hasn't gotten as many headlines recently, but is definitely one on the campaign trail, especially Maine, is ICE also a version of immigration, the president's policies. Let's watch how that played out in Maine last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: I believe that ICE needs reform, and I have proposed and got enacted into law significant reforms for ICE but more needs to be done.

TROY JACKSON, (D) MAINE SENATE CANDIDATE: And Senator Collins, the chair of appropriations, voted to give $70 billion to ICE without the reforms that Mainers deserved. Weeks later, blood was spilled in the streets of Biddeford. Look, Senator Collins paid for the bullets at Donald Trump's command. Now she wants credit for not pulling the trigger.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And they're speaking about a nice shooting in Maine last year. SOTOMAYOR: Yeah. No, it's interesting to see how both ICE and also immigration broadly as a whole. It's going to be an issue that is going to go on beyond this election. I think when it comes to Maine, and we were talking about Republicans who have distanced themselves from Trump. The one consistent thing I've heard is that someone like Collins has a brand of not being close to MAGA or Trump, not being completely tied.

And as much as Democrats have tried to land their argument, it doesn't always stick. In other words, she might have a better chance of keeping her seat. Then Ashley Hinson, who does have a voting record of constantly voting with the Republican Party and backing Trump, and that is the difficulty that even Mike Collins -

[12:30:00]