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New Cook Ratings: 11 House Races Move Toward Democrats; Battle For The House Being Fought Deeper Into Red Territory; Trillionaire Musk Gives At Least $276 Million To GOP Groups; Collins Pressed On Minimal Trump Opposition In Last Debate; Jackson Pressed On Vow Not To Take Money From Billionaires; Latest Polls Show No Clear Leader In Jackson- Collins Race; Shooter Kills Three Children & One Teacher At Oregon School. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 16, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Red states, blue ships. A new report shows the battle for the House is pushing even deeper into Trump territory.

I'm Dana Bash in Portland, Maine today. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 18 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power in Washington and all across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar.

First up, the Cook Political Report just shifted 11 more House races, all in Democrats' favor. Nine of those races are in states President Trump won in 2024. Montana's first district, which Trump carried by 12 percentage points is now a toss-up. The five other districts, four of which Trump won by double digits are moving from likely Republican to lean Republican. Several of those House shifts are in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas, where we're also seeing unexpectedly competitive Senate races.

Now to Michigan, where razor-tight Senate race is leading to some very personal attacks. Here's what Vice President J. D. Vance said about Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and El-Sayed response:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J. D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT: You deserve better than a little weasel who should shut his mouth and show a little gratitude to the country that gave him everything.

ABDUL EL-SAYED, (D) MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: I got a front row seat to what my life might have been, had I not been born in America. So don't lecture me about America. I know America. Yeah, I'm Muslim, but I also understand that my allegiance is to a constitution, and that constitution guarantees us all the right to pray how we choose to pray or not pray at all. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: In Alaska, there was a heated clash on the Senate debate stage last night as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan brought up allegations about his Democratic challenger Mary Peltola.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. DAN SULLIVAN (R-AK): She treats young Alaskans horribly. 25 staffers quit on Mary Peltola because she abused them physically and emotionally.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's just stop the decorum here. Please stop.

(CROSSTALK)

SULLIVAN: It's the New York Times, read the article.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Who founded you?

MARY PELTOLA, (D) ALASKA SENATE CANDIDATE: I found allegations. It's a real sad statement that I'm such a threat as a candidate that they're just willing to do and say anything about me to help Dan win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Despite President Trump winning Alaska by double digits two years ago, Republicans are clearly worried so much that the president traveled thousands of miles, more than 4,000 miles to campaign in Alaska for Republicans this week.

And in Ohio, Republican Congressman Max Miller is out with a new ad focusing on his divorce, as abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he denies, derail his re-election campaign.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: New documents reveal Miller is nearly $2 million in campaign debt to himself. And Cook rates his seat, a seat that he won by 15 points just two years ago, a toss-up. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters here today. Hello, one and all. Happy Friday.

I do want to start with the Cook ratings, and luckily, we have Erin Covey, who is the person at the Cook Political Report who does these ratings. Erin, talk to us about the decisions that were made to move so many of these House seats, many of which are in double-digit Trump territory. At least one step towards Democrats, and as you do, we'll put up on the screen again the ratings that you have out this morning.

ERIN COVEY, EDITOR, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Yeah. It's increasingly clear that the center of the House battleground are these seats that Trump won by high single digits, even low double digits. The vast majority of seats that are being contested this cycle are seats that Trump carried, but the fact that we have seats that he carried by double digits now fully on the board is quite remarkable. [12:05:00]

A lot of the shifts were also happening in these mid-western red states where Trump is particularly underwater, and we're seeing very competitive races at the top of the ticket that have trickle down effects on all of these House races, as well, particularly some of those races in Ohio, that we are shifting left, but it's increasingly clear that Democrats are in a very good position to take back the House. We now have 214 seats that favor Democrats, 200 that favor Republicans, and 21 toss-ups, the bulk of which are held by Republicans.

BASH: And we're going to show another graphic that really also helps illustrate what we're talking about here. This is with the ratings and the races that you have out this morning but showing how much Donald Trump won by just two years ago. And you see that starting with Ohio's 15th, Trump won 10 percentage points, going all the way down to New York 21. People remember that is Elise Stefanik's seat. She's leaving. That is a district the president won by almost 21 percentage points.

And Erin, just real quick to you again, is there an overall theme in the movements other than what we have all been hearing about and talking about, which is the cost of living, affordability.

COVEY: Yeah. Look, I think some parts of the country are going to swing further left than others. We are definitely seeing disparity in the amount of swing in some of these places. And I think districts where Trump has made some of the biggest gains between 2016 and 2024 are the places where Democrats are doing best because these are districts that voted for Trump because they believed he would be able to handle economic issues better. And now that that hasn't been the case, they're shifting left.

BASH: John, what are your thoughts on these new ratings? And as you talk, I do want to put them back up because there's a lot of numbers, and I want people to be able to digest them, particularly how these House races fare compared to how the president did two years ago.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Dana, you see it, you feel it, you hear it every time you travel. I've been on the road for the last two years, and every trip I come back, I say it's getting worse and worse for Republicans. When often you think late in a campaign, especially with their financial advantage and with the bully pulpit of the presidency, they should be able to at least stabilize it. But it keeps getting worse and you see that in those arrows -- in those rankings right there. There's a lot of overlap also in these House races or in places where there are big Senate races in a lot of cases, in places where there are big governors' races in a lot of places.

Look, I was in North Carolina recently. I was in Ohio, not too long before that, I was in Georgia, and I'm just back from Texas. The speaker of the House was in Texas, desperate to try to solve the Republican enthusiasm gap. Remember, months ago, the Texas Republicans redid the map at the president's request. That was supposed to be plus five Republican seats locked in. So why is the speaker there in the final days begging Republicans to get energy and turn out and the rhetoric.

You showed the J. D. Vance rhetoric. I just want to read you something. This is the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, trying to get Texas Republicans to get energized. You go to a Democratic county headquarters. There are dozens of people there working the phones. Republicans are having trouble getting volunteers and canvassers. Elon Musk is paying canvassers in the districts I was in down in Texas.

But this is the speaker, warning about Marxism and socialism. He says they take away private production. There will be no more private property. It begins with the premise, there is no God, and because of that, it ends in misery, suffering, and poverty, and famine, and death. I mean, I've been doing this for 40 years. Normally, the Republicans say the Democrats are going to raise your taxes, or lately maybe they're going to defund the police. Misery, poverty, and death, it just tells you the desperation.

BASH: Yeah. And I'm glad you brought up the Elon Musk of it all because we started this week on the show, talking about the fact that his, forget it, I'm done with politics' pledge is totally out the window. And David Chalian, we have -- we understand a figure on how much money he has just spent just recently, $276 million.

Much of that is going towards super PACs, who spend much of that in the state of Texas that John was just talking about. And you can just see the comparison to the new numbers that we've gotten from Democrats, this is so-called hard money. So, this is campaign money. Just in Q3, they've raised a lot of money, 231 million combined, but this is what they're up against in somebody with an endless checkbook.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR & WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yeah, Elon Musk doesn't have to raise any of that money to spend it, right? He just writes a cheque. And as you noted, what was so fascinating to learn out of these reports is, you know, Elon Musk singularly, I mean, he is the richest man in the world, so he can do this. But like, this one person is trying to save that Texas Senate seat for Republicans, Ken Paxton.

[12:10:00]

The outside group money is being single-handedly funded in large part by Elon Musk in this potential sort of rescue operation for the Republican Party after Donald Trump got involved with that primary and helped defeat John Cornyn, despite many, many Republicans in Washington, thinking Cornyn would have taken this race and just moved it off the map entirely.

BASH: Yeah. And John, money doesn't always buy you love or enthusiasm, and what you just described that you just saw in Texas would mean that it would maybe take that plus, plus to overcome the enthusiasm gap.

KING: It's a fascinating question. Remember, Musk spent a lot of money in the Wisconsin judicial elections last year in the off-year elections and it didn't work. One of the big themes in politics this year is get the money out. Democrats, Abdul El-Sayed, but Democrats all across the country are running against the money. So, the question is, Democrats are trying to make Musk an issue in a lot of these places. Now, in Texas, where the race for governor, the race for Senate, several of those battleground House districts are so close. Let's be honest, that money just might help. But it does tell you that Republicans are having to buy their canvassers, pay for people to knock on doors, while Democrats are going through the neighborhood. We'll see in the end.

Again, you spend a few days in Texas, you turn on the TV. I mean, you need a shower. The ads down there are incredibly nasty. It's incredibly personal. But I'll tell you, we sat down with a bunch of Republican voters who say Ken Paxton makes them sick to their stomach. They think he's an ethical quagmire. They can't look at their kids, and say, I voted for this guy. That's the problem they have.

The Republicans, especially in that race, it doesn't mean Paxton won't pull it out. It doesn't mean the Musk money won't help and all the outside money won't help. But Republicans have a problem with their candidate, especially in that race in Texas.

BASH: Yeah. So, you have that and then going back to where we started this conversation. You have these House races continuing to move competitive deeper and deeper and deeper into Trump territory. Thank you for bringing that to us. Erin, John and David stick around.

Up next, I am in Maine, where there is, of course, a very tight Senate race. There was a fiery debate last night and there is a lot of cash coming in. Plus, I'll speak with the Democrat who's also raising a lot of money, millions of dollars, and she's doing it in now deep red Florida, trying to pull off a Senate upset, one few thought was possible.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Welcome back to Inside Politics, live today from Portland, Maine. Senator Susan Collins says she's not afraid to stand up to President Trump or her party but has her opposition to a Trump policy ever actually changed an outcome. That was one of the tough questions she got last night in the final of four debates she's had with her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson. Listen to her answer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): There are several examples of that. At one point, I had organized people to vote against Secretary Hegseth. As you undoubtedly have read at the very last minute, one of our Republicans changed his mind. Otherwise, he would have been defeated for that job, and --

PHIL HIRSCHKORN, HOST OF POLITICAL BREW, NEWS CENTER MAINE: So that didn't change the outcome.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: That that was Phil Hirschkorn, one of the moderators last night, and he's here joining the panel. Also, one of our dear former CNN colleagues.

PHIL HIRSCHKORN, HOST OF POLITICAL BREW, NEWS CENTER MAINE: Yes, we still have together --

BASH: No, taking the state of Maine by storm. What was your takeaway?

HIRSCHKORN: Well, I think both candidates, by the time they got to this fourth debate were pretty sharp. They knew what they wanted to say and how they wanted to say that, and I think that's largely what we heard for the hour. Our goal, and you've been in the hot seat for many debates, was to try to ask something new that would elucidate new information as well as help the voters hear some differences between the candidates.

BASH: OK, one of the other moments, and there were many, was the question of where Troy Jackson gets his money based on a pledge that he made not to take money from "billionaires." Let's watch that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: You've also said that you would take no money from billionaires. That's not accurate. You've also said that you would not take any corporate PAC money, that's not accurate.

TROY JACKSON, (D) MAINE SENATE CANDIDATE: As far as the billionaires that I might have on my campaign, that is accurate. But I haven't -- I haven't made any deals like Senator Collins has with those billionaires. I don't owe my votes. I'm going to tax those billionaires when I get the U.S. Senate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: What was your takeaway from that? And more importantly, as you cover this race, as you do every single day, how much does that kind of issue matter?

HIRSCHKORN: I don't know that voters really care about campaign finance to tell you the truth. That's something that political reporters care about, but I think voters do care about it in this way. There's just an onslaught of ads, paid for by the campaigns, but more so by the outside groups. Maine right now per capita has more spending per voter, more spending than any state in the country. It's crazy. It's been over $100 million on its way to 200. That's just the outside spending, and so we're inundated.

So, I think voters are probably sick of the fact that there's so much money in the politics. You know, Collins has gotten grief because something like 100 billionaires have given money to her or committees supporting her. But you heard Troy last night admit that 28 billionaires perhaps have given his campaign. He just filed his first report yesterday. 200,000 contributors, most 95 percent or $100.

[12:20:00]

But look, we know there's wealthy Democrats too. If I could just take another second, I can fully answer your first question. That was important because Troy's line, Graham Platner's line, the Democrats' line, all year has been Collins votes too much with Donald Trump. It doesn't stand up to Donald Trump. So that's just on things like the bills that come before Congress, but also his appointments, the justices, the cabinet secretaries. So that's why we focused in on that. I thought the Hegseth comment didn't play well for her. That's why I also pressed her on RFK Jr.

BASH: Hegseth meaning, she decided to vote for him because she knew it wouldn't change the outcome.

HIRSCHKORN: Well, I can't say that, but she did vote against him, and it didn't change the outcome.

BASH: Against him -- yeah, against him.

HIRSCHKORN: I think she couldn't remember. I think it was Iowa, Joni Ernst, who threw the -- threw the vote on that one.

BASH: Yes.

HIRSCHKORN: No, she didn't name her. But that's the kind of thing we've heard a lot that she's a rubber stamp for Donald Trump, of course, you heard her rebuttal to that that well, actually, if you look at a broad sweep of ratings, she is the most bipartisan.

BASH: Which matters so much because this is a very blue state on a presidential level and there hasn't been a Democratic senator here since 1988, which is really remarkable. I want to bring in John and David, and Phil mentioned the money. David, Troy Jackson has raised $20.4 million. This is in these new filings we got. Susan Collins, $3.9 million. What are your thoughts on that, and also on the debate?

CHALIAN: Well, this candidate to candidate fundraising, you know, if you look at the nine most competitive Senate races, you've seen that kind of trend where the Democratic candidate is significantly out raising the Republican candidate in this third quarter. It doesn't mean they have an overall financial advantage, obviously, because we've discussed the outside spending. But I do think it speaks to what John was saying before as well.

You see the enthusiasm play out there with a lot of the grassroots donations as well into these campaigns. Excuse me, but Dana, I would say the debate sort of speak to me, sort of spoke to the overall question that hangs over this main Senate race. Is this -- Susan Collins knew she was getting into what was going to be the toughest re-election battle of her career, as she is seeking this sixth term.

Is the environment just too bad for Republicans in a state like Maine that even Susan Collins' well-established relationship with Maine voters, is it just too bad of an environment that that itself overwhelms what Susan Collins has repeatedly done in her career, or can her relationship with voters in Maine actually withstand the environment? That's the question that hangs over the Maine Senate race.

BASH: Yeah. And John, you've spent time here talking to voters as well. And I remember that is the question that voters were asking themselves out loud in your piece whether it was about Susan Collins, who they like, or about trying to get a Democratic Senate.

KING: Democrats, I can tell you, the Democrats I've been in touch with up there feel better at the end of the debates than they did heading into the debates. They were worried about Jackson, but they think that the more voters get to see Collins, that it reinforces what both Phil -- and Phil, it's great to see you, and David have been talking about, which is look, the national dynamic, the biggest dynamic in the election, in the country right now is change.

This is a change environment and she's standing up there. She's been in the Senate for 30 years and she's asking for six more. That is a hard wind to walk through, and then she's walking through that that wind where people want change and they want new, and they want different in a state that Kamala Harris won, in a state where President Trump is unpopular.

Is Troy Jackson the best candidate? Democrats have been worried about that. They do feel a little better now than at the end. It's a classic race in many ways, a newcomer versus someone who says, look, you might be disappointed with my Brett Kavanaugh vote. You might be disappointed. I don't yell at President Trump more often, but I bring home millions, if not billions of dollars to our state. You will miss me if I'm gone. So, it's one of the classics heading to the end. But again, Democrats think the national climate for change, even though they were nervous a couple weeks ago, they do feel a little better today.

BASH: All right. Phil, thank you so much for having us here. Appreciate it.

HIRSCHKORN: Happy it worked out.

BASH: Yes, me too. All right, everybody, please stand by. Up next, we are going to check in on the horrible shooting in the state of Oregon. Don't go anywhere.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

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BASH: A five-year-old, an eight-year-old, an 11-year-old, and a teacher. Those are the victims murdered at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, Oregon. Police say a 16-year-old forced his way into the school by shooting at locked doors using a long gun. An armed bystander saw the gunman go into the building, followed him, and shot and killed him, ending his rampage. A fifth-grade teacher at the school says she saw the shooter enter the building through her classroom window. She then warned the main office and gathered her students into a corner of the classroom. She spoke to reporters last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATHY SHEIL SMITH, 5TH GRADE TEACHER AT SILVER RAIL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL: I'm sure that every teacher at the school thought today is the day that I am going to die, save my kids. They were so afraid. Looks in their faces was really hard to see. It's trying to calm them down, you know. And some kids were praying. Some kids were consoling other kids. And so, what they were doing so quietly because they know you don't make any noise.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: CNN's Nick Watt is live in Bend, Oregon. Ben -- excuse me, Nick, what is the latest on the investigation?

NICK WATT, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, what CNN is hearing from a source is that investigators have executed a search warrant at this alleged.