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Inside Politics

Trump Uses France Unrest To Deliver Dark Midterm Warning; GOP Has Spending Advantage In Nearly Every Competitive Senate Race; Hamilton: Three-Time Trump Voters Say "They're Frustrated With" Him; Will Montana Send Its First Democrat To The House In 30 years?; Early Voting Underway In Battleground Wisconsin, Texas. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 20, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: President Trump is using chaos across the Atlantic to frame a dire midterm message.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 14 days, just two weeks, until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power right here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar.

We start with new numbers, showing just how huge last-minute ad spending is. More than $300 million in ads will flood the 10 Senate races CNN rates as most likely to flip from now until Election Day. The biggest ad buys are in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. Three states President Trump won handily two years ago, but now their Senate races are toss-ups.

President Trump is taking his midterm message to North Carolina today after using unrest in France to stoke fear here at home. Here's what he said at a rally last night in Kansas.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what's happening in France, a once great nation that is being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists, and communists who hate Christianity and they hate, frankly, the western civilization itself. When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France, just remember that is what the radical democrats want to do to America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: People in France have been protesting soaring costs, but some demonstrations have turned violent with rioting and looting. A new Marist poll out of Ohio shows the Senate race is deadlocked. There's no clear leader between former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who wants to go back to the Senate, and beat the current Republican Senator Jon Husted. In the race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by seven points. President Trump has campaigned twice this month for Husted and Ramaswamy, but this poll puts his Ohio approval rating underwater at just 43 percent.

Now to New Hampshire, where Republican Senate nominee John Sununu is out with a new ad distancing himself from his fellow Republican in the White House.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: Registered independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in New Hampshire. Cook Political Report puts the race for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen's blue seat in the lean Democratic column.

I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters. Hello, everybody. Two weeks, buckle up. We're buckled. You've been buckled for a while. Can we just start with that John Sununu ad? Because it's -- whenever -- first of all, whenever a candidate does a straight to camera ad, it means like listen because I have something important that I want to tell you or more likely need to tell you politically.

And as I mentioned and as we all know New Hampshire loves its independent streak. And I was told that it is so bad for Donald Trump in New Hampshire that people are going up to Sununu's, which is a very famous name and a respected name in New Hampshire, saying, I would love to vote for another Sununu, but I can't vote for a Republican. I need a check on the president and that is a big reason why John Sununu put that ad out.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yeah. I mean, to me, it is the perfect example of what we mean about Trump as a drag on his party, and obviously, that drag is different in different places. But a place like New Hampshire, that yes, thrives on its attachment to independents and association with independents, but is a blue-leaning state in American politics, bluish tint of purple, if you will.

And the fact that two weeks out, that's what is so telling to me, is like, two weeks out that John Sununu needs to still make that case right now direct to camera. He hasn't solved as a candidate yet that fundamental Trump challenge in his candidacy, and obviously Pappas is prosecuting this case and attaching him to Trump as much as he can. And when you have to go to camera and do that, that to me is a tell from the Sununu side that Pappas pursuit of attaching Sununu to Trump is working.

[12:05:00]

BASH: And it's all over the air.

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It shows just how much the environment has deteriorated for Trump and the GOP, because just a few weeks ago this race was deadlocked. I mean, Sununu didn't feel the need to distance himself from Trump the way that he is having to do right now. Remember, Sununu used effectively Trump's endorsement in the primary to run away from that -- to run away from Scott Brown, who was challenging him in that primary. He won overwhelmingly in large part with support of Donald Trump. When I was up there a couple weeks ago, I asked him about it. He said the same thing to me. He said, I never asked for his support. Fine, he gave it to me. And he also stuck by his criticism of Trump too. Remember, he wrote a primary op-ed back in the 2024 primary with the headlines that Trump is a loser. I mean, he backed Nikki Haley in that primary. I believe when he was asked about this by local reporters in the primary, he said, I didn't write the headline.

When I asked him about it, when I was up there a couple weeks ago, he said, oh yeah, I stand by everything that was in there. And now he's going up with this ad. It just shows you how much he needs to distance himself because the polls are showing that Pappas has now got a lead.

BASH: Yeah. And we're going to talk a little bit more about as you mentioned this is an open blue seat. A little bit more about how Democrats are defending those seats later in the show. But on the Trump of it all, the president, as I mentioned, is going to North Carolina today. This is an example of a Republican candidate who has campaigned in North Carolina, who has campaigned alongside Donald Trump, being asked about it and asked about the promise or the positivity of being in that situation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You were at the president's rally on Tuesday. You stood next to him. You spoke. You got his endorsement. Is that going to help you?

JENNIFER BALKCOM, (R) NORTH CAROLINA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I think so. I think so, give or take. You know, do everyone has an opinion?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION: That just didn't seem to be the most confident answer. You know, I think you can read between the pauses in that that I found interesting just watching her response just now. But also, I do think there's a different calculus for different candidates, Republican candidates, depending on what their district looks like, right? There are some ruby red districts that--

BASH: But this is -- this is

RAJU: Trump plus nine district--

BASH: Trump plus nine is North Carolina 11--

RAJU: Chuck Edwards won that state two years ago by 13 percentage points.

MITCHELL: Yeah. But quite frankly, Trump plus nine is no longer safe in this map, so I think that's where the pauses we saw come from. Like there's the old way of thinking, which is like this is a Trump plus nine district, of course, I need Trump. But in 2026, you might be in a little trouble, and it might give you a little pause. You don't want to -- that's the other things. These Republicans don't want to be seen as disloyal.

They don't want to get on Trump's bad side. They don't want him coming after them, so they're trying to be careful in not, you know, distancing themselves to Trump in a way that could cause his wrath because that could be just as damaging as being tied to him.

BASH: And to your point, according to Cook, it is now a toss-up. So, you're exactly right. Let's talk a little bit more about the money. I mentioned the expectation of $300 million. Let's just look at who and where some of that money is being spent or at least expected to be spent. If you look at the advantages on the top here, by republic -- well, number one, it's Republicans in Ohio. You see that in Texas, in Michigan, the overall numbers are just eye popping, but the -- again the Republican advantage on money, especially in these top three states, David, it's remarkable.

CHALIAN: Yeah. I mean this has been, as you know, you talk to every Democratic operative in the -- like closing months of this campaign season, and you ask them sort of, OK, this is a favorable environment for you. What is -- what is giving you the biggest worry? And the answer repeatedly is, the money advantage that Republicans have. And so, putting that money to work to try in some of these places to basically save their Senate majority. That is -- that is what they're going to try to apply the advantage. We know that money does not always solve for that.

BASH: Not at all.

CHALIAN: And sometimes an environment is what it is, or candidate quality is what it is, and things can supersede the money. But my God, in these tight races, you'd rather be the one with the money advantage.

BASH: Yeah. Speaking of candidate quality, that's a big question that Republicans have about their incumbent Republican in Kansas, Roger Marshall. We -- there's been a big backdrop of criticism and headlines on Dr. Roger Marshall and how he billed the people who -- his patients, and here are just some examples of the headlines. According to the New York Times, a doctor -- this doctor, Roger Marshall, sued 700 patients for deaths. Kansas City Star, he charged 18 percent on medical bills. The president again was in Kansas last night. Here's what he said to try to defend him.

[12:10:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: He was given a bum rap because he was mandated by law to request strongly money owed from patients. You're not allowed, not to do it. You have to, by law, go after those people, and they made it like, oh, he was some kind of a Shylock type guy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Shylock is an interesting word to use there, just by way of context here, it has been used historically to demean Jews. The president has used it before. Joe Biden used it in 2014 but apologized for using it.

MITCHELL: Yeah. I mean, I think that word, which I'll be honest, I'm not familiar with. But if you use a word, and people tell you, hey, that's anti-Semitic or that's problematic for whatever reason, and then you use it again. The first time you can claim ignorance, you can't later. And so, I think that's what a lot of people are finding troubling because he was called out for using this word before and has apparently kept it in his vocabulary.

BASH: And just real quick, I do want to remind our viewers of the conversations that you've had in Kansas, including with the Democrat running against him, Adam Hamilton.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: State that he has won three times by double digits. Is that a risk in a state where you have to win Trump voters in order to win this race?

ADAM HAMILTON, (D) KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: Well, it's interesting as I travel across the state, I'm talking to people who tell me, I voted for President Trump three times, but what's happening today is not OK. And their frustration isn't with -- I mean they're frustrated with the president. They're really frustrated with Roger Marshall. But I have people come and say I voted for him three times, but I think you're going to be a better senator for us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Manu?

RAJU: Yeah. I mean, look, it's a perfect storm that's happening in Kansas right now, which is why the state that Donald Trump has won three times that there's no Democrat has won in nearly a century, that there's actually a chance for a Democrat to win here. Obviously, the Iran war, fuel prices, diesel prices, the farm, the rural America, rural community in Kansas, really, really getting hammered.

And then there's the candidate quality issue that you absolutely cannot ignore. Adam Hamilton being the head of a megachurch, someone who has a huge following, the largest church in Kansas, someone who's very -- has a solid stump speech, charismatic politician. Roger Marshall has struggled to raise money.

He raised 100,000 bucks in the last quarter, and it was almost 11 times less than Adam Hamilton in the last quarter, which is why the Republican rescue operation is underway. And they're doing everything they can to try to nationalize this race, make it about Democratic control of the United States Senate and that may ultimately win. They may ultimately pull it off from the GOP side, but boy, no one thought Kansas would have been this much of a barn burner.

BASH: Not at all. Speaking of, no one thought. I'm going to speak to a candidate from Montana. He's running in the congressional race for the House. And he was just six months old, six months old, rather the last time his state sent a Democrat to the House of Representatives. Can Sam Forstag change that? Plus, CNN's Phil Mattingly has a special report on Iowa farmers reeling from soaring prices and the potential political consequences of their struggles in a crucial Senate race.

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[12:15:00]

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BASH: There aren't a lot of Democrats who can say they're endorsed by their state's former Republican governor/former RNC chair and by Bernie Sanders and AOC. That's the unlikely coalition behind Montana Democratic House candidate and wildfire smoke jumper Sam Forstag. And it might be one reason why a district President Trump carried by double digits is now rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

Democratic House candidate Sam Forstag joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. So, four years ago, your fellow Democrat Senator Jon Tester called the national Democratic brand toxic in your state of Montana. And now, as I mentioned, you're a Democrat in a neck-and-neck race for one of the two Montana House seats. Do you think that your party brand nationally has changed, or is it just that voters are really disillusioned with the president or both?

SAM FORSTAG, (D) MONTANA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I think there's a lot of folks out here and across the country who are disillusioned with both political parties, frankly. And I think there's a lot of folks like my coworkers or some of my union members who certainly got a sour lick on their face when I told them I'd be running, and they said, well, what party you're running with? And I told them, as a Democrat.

And part of the project here is to win back a district like this that we're in a position to win, polling even to up three, and it's also to show people what a new kind of Democrat looks like that, you know, isn't just somebody who's for working people or for union members, but that we're actually a party of working people and union members and that we're still the party of the next generation, who's going to fight for the future of this country and fight for the people who power is supposed to come from, which is the people themselves.

BASH: So, let's get specific on that because you do talk a lot about this bipartisan identity, which you just explained there. You are endorsed by former Republican Governor and RNC chair Mark Roscoe. You have an ad that says Sam ain't your typical Democrat. Can you give me an example or two of where you differ from the National Democratic Party positions?

[12:20:00]

FORSTAG: Yeah, absolutely. I'll tell you whether it is the fact that, you know, our right to bear arms is not only protecting the U.S. Constitution, but in Montana's Constitution even more strongly, or that things like forest management have been places where we have been falling further and further behind. And when the Democratic Party gets a chance to change something, we don't do it. These are places where we need folks who know what it's like on the ground, like myself who spent the last eight years in forestry as a firefighter, as a smoke jumper, parachuting, and remote wildfires. And more broadly, it's simply prioritizing, working people as a matter of policy and representation.

I mean, today the average Congress person is worth 15 times the average American. The average age of a member of Congress is 56 or 58 years old, and somehow, we've let the Democratic Party become the older of those two caucuses in Congress. We need representation for working people so that we're actually at the table when these decisions are being made and we can fight for ourselves. And that is a big part of how we're bringing together six Republican legislators, a former Republican governor, and yeah, folks like Senator Sanders and the Blue Dogs as well.

BASH: Because you mentioned guns, I do want to ask you about that. You are a vocal defender of the Second Amendment. You live in Montana now, obviously. You are from Oregon, where last week a 16-year-old took a shotgun to an elementary school, and the span of three minutes killed three children and a teacher. The gun, a Maverick 88 pump action 12 gage shotgun, had been purchased by the shooter's mother.

Is there any gun safety legislation you can think of that would have prevented this shooting that you would push if you get to Congress?

FORSTAG: Yeah. I think that we need to make investments in making sure that people have education about gun safety that there are safe storage opportunities, and while we also need to make sure that parents are storing their guns safely and the kids aren't getting access to them if they aren't prepared to actually use them responsibly. And more broadly, I mean, when I was well much younger, it seemed like we still had a national conversation every time these tragedies unfolded, and the conversation would break down eventually.

To well, one side saying, we need investments in mental health, and the other saying we need gun control. If we can get some agreement on actually rebuilding our mental health system in this country, well, absolutely. That seemed like one of the most pressing issues we got. I mean, between fire seasons, I worked to build the Montana Coalition to solve homelessness out here. But we got the least affordable housing market in the country, and homelessness has doubled or tripled in every city in the state in the last decade.

As a result, a third of those people are grappling with things like mental illness, behavioral health disorder that they have very little access to services for, and that is the result of decades of policy failures from both parties, who have at one point or another had control in our federal government. Those are places we need to be investing to make sure that every person in this country can afford the basics and that our most vulnerable folks are not ending up on the streets or, yeah, in positions where these tragedies unfold as a result.

BASH: One of the issues that your Republican opponent, Aaron Flint, and other Republicans, including President Trump, they're hitting you on is your stance on trans issues. A lot of your fellow Democrats running in red states like you are, or red areas, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, for example, they've moderated on these issues. Both of them oppose trans athletes playing in women's sports, for example, you do not. Why?

FORSTAG: I mean, I'll tell you what I oppose is the government sticking its nose in the private, personal decisions. And when my opponent, or frankly, folks across this country, try to stir up fear and anger of one vulnerable community or another, they're doing that because they don't actually have any plan for making our lives better as working people because they are trying to distract from the fact that right now there's a very small slice of people getting incredibly rich off our backs and they don't intend to work for us. They intend to work for them, so they find one group or another.

Well, right now it's folks in the trans community that they can direct anger and outrage at. Well, that's not the -- those aren't the folks making us poor. Those aren't the folks picking our pockets while we meant the first human trillionaire in this country. And I think, quite simply, government is not here to impose a worldview on us one way or the other. It should not be.

Government should be here to improve our lives, to make sure that every person in this country can work one job and afford the basics, and I think that that tired old message is not working anymore. And we don't have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections. We just have to be real straightforward about what we're fighting for.

BASH: Sam Forstag, thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate it. Good to talk to you. And we have invited the -- Mr. Forstag's opponent, Aaron Flint, to join us on the show and he is welcome anytime. Thanks again. Early voting data is flashing some big clues in the battlegrounds. Next, the North Carolina numbers that the president is likely watching very closely as he heads there.

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[12:25:00]

BASH: Today, early in-person voting begins in Wisconsin. It joins a wave of battlegrounds heading to the polls. You can see the lines in McKinney, Texas, where polls opened yesterday. Harris County, which includes Houston, reported a record first day turnout. That's likely good news for Democrats. So far, more than 10 million people across the country have already cast their ballots. That is on track with the 2022 midterms, and there are a lot of tea leaves to try to read in the states we're tracking the most closely

[12:30:00]