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10M Plus Early Ballots Cast In Midterm Elections; Democratic Early Voting Turnout Up Across Several Battlegrounds; Top Senate Dem Super PAC Buys First Ads In Mississippi; Trump Announces $8B Aid Package For Farmers During Kansas Rally; Iowa Farmers Struggle With Soaring Diesel & Fertilizer Prices. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 20, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: -- Harris County, which includes Houston, reported a record first day turnout. That's likely good news for Democrats. So far, more than 10 million people across the country have already cast their ballots. That is on track with the 2022 midterms. And there are a lot of tea leaves to try to read. In the states, we're tracking the most closely.

Luckily, Tom Foreman is here at the Magic Wall to help us read some of those tea leaves for us. Where are those 10 million votes coming from?

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, those 10 million votes are coming, if you look at those people in those lines, all the numbers say they're coming largely from Democrats. Republicans are showing up, but if you look at the dark areas here, that's where the Democrats are coming on the strongest.

But let's look at those battleground numbers and forget for a moment whom you might want to win. Just look at the numbers. Blue versus red here. Across the board here, you see in these battlegrounds, it's better for blue. Maine, where Susan Collins is duking it out. That's very, very close there.

If you look at the numbers, it's not much. Zero percent advantage, so there's a little advantage there, but she's down here by under two points. Nebraska, reliably red state. Look at that. Three percent more Republicans turning up at this point compared to 2022 -- or, excuse me, Democrats showing up at this point compared to 7 percent.

In North Carolina, tough battle going on down there where they have an advantage. Same in Ohio here. The only one that's an outlier here right now is Pennsylvania, down by 4 points. But it's important to remember, Pennsylvania doesn't have in-person early voting like you think of with voting machines where you go in and do it.

It's basically all mail-in voting and Democratic operatives there have said a lot of their people were scared by the talk from the White House about using the Postal Service to control that. So they think that may have something to do with this, Dana. BASH: Some of these states show even more specifically who's voting early more compared to elections in the past. What are you seeing there?

FOREMAN: Yes, absolutely. Let's look at North Carolina, because that's a big one. Thom Tillis retiring there. So look at what's happening right now. This is 2022, 2024, 2026. Look what happened with the Democrats here. They are way up since 2024.

And look at the Republicans. They are way down since 2024. And the Independents have been kind of the same, but they're also up. So if you look at this already, if you're the Republicans, you might be worried. But then you might say, well, let's look at the overall demographics of the state.

69 percent white voters in 2026. Now that's down a little bit. But they can say, well, there are a lot of Republican voters in the white population there, and the President has done well with the black population in this country last time around. But there's been a lot of signs and polls of that eroding.

So if you look at this and you say, where is the line in purely white voters of those who previously would have called themselves a Democrat or a Republican? Well, you can probably take a lot of this and say, this is probably Democrat over here.

And now this section over here may be a lot more Democrat than it was in 2024. And now you look at the balance and you say, that's why the Republicans are nervous. That's why the President is out there in areas that theoretically he shouldn't have to go to, but they seem to think he needs to go to now.

BASH: Tom, thank you so much for following all of that for us. Voters are voting. We're there.

Coming up, Senate Democrats just launched their first campaign ad. Guess where? Mississippi. Democrats have a new campaign ad in Mississippi. But is their ambition outpacing political reality? That's after the break.

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[12:38:13]

BASH: Democrats aren't just hoping for a blue wave in two weeks, they're spending like there might be a blue tsunami. Democrats' top Senate PAC just decided to put money into a very, very red state historically, and that is Mississippi. It's an unlikely bid to win a GOP held seat, but they're certainly seeing something there in a state President Trump won by 23 points.

And it's not an outlier, it's the common margin for the GOP in the Magnolia state. So in a new analysis, the question begins to become, what are the Democrats doing? Have they inflated expectations for the midterms or not? And this is something that we have been looking at, not just in the House of Representatives, but in the Senate, because it is the Senate that is the most difficult hill to climb for Democrats right now.

And I want to look at the map and -- well, actually, before we do that, can we just, Tia, talk about Mississippi for a second, as our southerner here?

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: Yes. You know, I was actually just looking some of it up. I mean, you have to remember the Deep South, because of the vestiges of slavery, that they are very -- the demographics of the Deep South states have huge black populations.

Mississippi has the highest percentage of black population than any other state in America. And we know that most black people vote for Democrats. And so there are a lot of people who are looking at the demographics of Mississippi and saying it is winnable, particularly in this climate where even some, you know, Independent voters, some soft right-leaning voters are frustrated with the Trump administration and weighing their options.

[12:40:04]

So we've heard Democrats tell the national party, don't count out Mississippi, the same way they're saying don't count out Angela -- Angie Nixon in Florida. They're saying, yes, these are what we would traditionally consider red states, but let's put a little money there and see what happens.

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This is a shift, Dana. This was not the plan --

BASH: I know.

RAJU: -- just a couple of weeks ago.

BASH: Yes.

RAJU: And because they've been focused on their core states. They need to win Ohio. They need to hold Michigan. They need to flip Maine. And they can see Alaska as a clear opportunity. Kansas is more of an opportunity than Mississippi.

They -- and the Democratic money is not the same as the Republican outside money. So the fact that they're going in there, they're seeing some movement there. I mean, $1.2 million is an investment. It's not $10 million, but it is something. And it --

BASH: It's a signal.

RAJU: It's a signal that they think there's possibly --

BASH: Yes.

RAJU: -- a chance there.

BASH: Yes. But let's put up the map, the broader Senate map, to talk about the real sort of game here. You see the blue battleground states, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia. And I would argue Minnesota can be in there a little bit as well. And the key here for these Democrats is, of course -- and we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks now, if not more -- that Democrats are pushing into red territory.

Mississippi, what just happened, the development just now, is the latest example. But in order to really make that mean something, taking over control of the Senate, they're going to have to hold all of those blue seats. Now, Georgia looks more comfortable. North Carolina also looks more comfortable.

Michigan and New Hampshire, which we were talking about earlier in the program, those are open blue seats. And it's very hard, David, for Democrats to really take control of the Senate without keeping those. It's not impossible. It just makes it a whole lot harder, because they would have to win -- they need four, a net four.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes. I mean --

BASH: They would have to win a whole bunch of those. You know, they would have to win five or six if they lose both of those blue seats.

CHALIAN: Right. Mission number one for Democrats is you've got to hold what you already have.

BASH: Right.

CHALIAN: That's why seeing Georgia in the Cook Political Report here as likely Dem -- remember, Jon Ossoff, the only Democrat senator running for reelection in a state Donald Trump won, and that has already been basically taken off the map. I don't even know if it could truly be considered a battleground anymore, that race, but it has likely Dems.

They did that there. You see that Cook has Minnesota related as likely Dem, New Hampshire, lean Dem. So of the ones that the Dems currently hold, the one that's in the toss-up category, according to this, is Michigan. What is fascinating, though, when you look at this map, also, Dana, is -- do you see any pink on there?

BASH: Right.

CHALIAN: You see nothing from Cook Political Report right now among these states as leaning towards the GOP. You -- what you see are deep red states -- yellow, toss-up here -- Alaska, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio. Those are five deep red, double-digit Trump states just two years ago that are not -- they're not even just leaning GOP, they are true toss-up states. That's what the environment has provided.

Now, whether or not they actually go blue on election night is a different matter. Just getting them to toss-up status --

BASH: No, it's --

CHALIAN: -- does not get you a Senate majority. BASH: Right. Which is a lot further than anybody, maybe except Chuck Schumer, thought that they were going to get right now. And I'm not even sure he thought so. He said it publicly.

Coming up, why the squeeze on farmers is turning Iowa into a midterm toss-up state.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEVE KULPER, PRESIDENT, IOWA CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION: Everybody in agriculture is tired, would be the best way to put it. They're just tired. They feel very beat up right now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: -- to announce that the Department of Agriculture will be launching a new harvest fuel relief program providing our farmers with $8 billion in support to offset diesel costs during this harvest season.

We love our farmers. I've always been.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:48:26]

BASH: That was President Trump in Kansas last night announcing a new $8 billion aid package for farmers. But the farming industry has not been feeling the love. Eye-watering diesel prices, soaring fertilizer costs, they're hurting America's farmers, turning once reliably red races into toss-ups in states like Kansas and also Iowa.

CNN's Phil Mattingly spoke to independent farmers in Iowa for the latest installment of his series for CNN's All Access, "Priced Out in America."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: Talk to enough farmers here in Iowa and you start to recognize input costs are the most driving economic concern. Right behind me, diesel. Diesel prices have surged since the start of the Iran conflict. Machine repair and upkeep up more than 40 percent just since 2020.

Dip over here and you see fertilizer, other chemicals always volatile, also surging in the wake of the start of the Iran conflict.

COREY GOODHUE, IOWA FARMER: The only option you have is keep doing the right thing, the best thing you can figure out moving forward and dust yourself off and keep going.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): It's Corey Goodhue's 20th harvest. On ground, his family has farmed for four generations.

GOODHUE: So yes, this is my little cubby.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): The cost to grow an acre of corn in Iowa has more than doubled since 2006 to $920. And costs that climb in the good years, they don't come down in the bad ones.

GOODHUE: The replacement cost of that tractor has doubled and instead of at 2.75 percent interest, you're looking at 7.75 percent interest.

[12:50:00]

MATTINGLY (voice-over): Running beneath it all, the paradox of Iowa farmland owners.

GOODHUE: Somebody not involved in the industry was like, these guys are so rich land-wise, like, I don't understand what the issues are.

It's the difference between the current portion of your balance sheet and the long-term portion. You can have a lot of net worth but no working capital.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): And farmers are particularly vulnerable to economic shocks. Since the Iran war began in late February, Iowa diesel is up more than 70 percent from about $3.50 a gallon to over $6. So Corey opened his books.

GOODHUE: This is a heck of a look behind the curtain here, bosses.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): What many people don't realize, before farmers ever climb into a combine, they have to be accountants, commodities traders, and risk managers.

GOODHUE: I would say this time last year, we weren't feeling real great about life because we had to do a lot of cutting to get this thing to a positive number. Brutal amount of cutting.

MATTINGLY: What was driving the cutting? Like why the need for cutting?

GOODHUE: Margins are just terrible, right?

MATTINGLY: So walk through like what the red numbers are.

GOODHUE: Well either I did it wrong or inflation got me. The buck has to stop at this desk. I just didn't think $6.50 diesel was in the cards.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): The inputs for diesel this year are punishing.

GOODHUE: We would have budgeted $35,000 and so up to this point, we spent $23,000 and our last tank fill was probably -- I mean you're going to exceed this by probably $20,000.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): And by October, with the crop already grown, there's no easy way to earn back $20,000 with output. So farmers here, they lean on each other, relying on local cooperatives like this one. Farmers here are looking for power in numbers.

Co-ops allow them to pool their grain and sell in bulk, giving them price leverage. But the laws of supply and demand, they're unforgiving. Corn was rallying until a recent USDA report identified a big jump in the amount of corn in storage.

Corn futures fell 21 cents in a day. That's enough to blow a hole in an independent farmer's budget.

BLAKE REYNOLDS, IOWA FARMER: We get a rally, get, you know, get grain prices kind of starting to come back, where this $6 fuel maybe doesn't hurt quite as bad, and then all of a sudden, oh yes, we forgot about this X billion amount of bushels that we just happened to find it laying in the back corner of the shed, you know. So they tank us.

We're going to have to sit on grain a lot longer now, of course, to go ahead and hope that prices kind of rebound. I obviously can't purchase ground. You know, there's -- ground is $12,000, $13,000, $14,000, $15,000 an acre now, and I just can't purchase it and pencil it out in my lifetime, or even my son's lifetime.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): To understand how we got here, we drove north to Ames. David Peters grew up on a farm and has spent nearly two decades at Iowa State studying rural Iowa.

DAVID PETERS, IOWA RESIDENT: Farmers are sort of forced on this treadmill, we call it the technology treadmill. When things happen unexpectedly, like with the fertilizer price increase and the fuel increases with, you know, the war in Iran, that threw everyone for a loop, and it was at the worst possible time that it could have happened.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): And all of that has an impact at the voting booth. Iowa went for Barack Obama by 9 points in 2008, and then went for Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024. But this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates its Senate race and an open House seat as toss-ups, and two more Republican-held seats as leaning Democratic.

PETERS: It's a stereotype that everybody in the rural community, or every farmer, is full-on MAGA. At least in farming communities, it's very much a purple state. I think it's possible to hold two ideas at the same time. So my conversations with farmers and farm groups, they generally support the President, you know, on his, you know, bringing manufacturing back to the United States.

The -- why cause additional problems with irritating China, you know, having trade wars with very onerous tariffs? So we are an export-based economy. And so I think in a lot of Iowa, people feel, why are we paying the price for these policies?

MATTINGLY (voice-over): Steve Kulper's family has lived that dream for four generations, but he's worried that today's economic reality means his grandchildren won't have the chance to continue the family legacy.

MATTINGLY: Is that your grandson?

KULPER: That's my grandson. Four, going on 25.

MATTINGLY: You're fourth generation, right?

KULPER: Yes, they're fifth generation.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): Last month, Kulper's association warned Iowa's entirely Republican congressional delegation that diesel was, quote, "accelerating the economic and mental stress farmers are feeling."

KULPER: Everybody in agriculture is tired, would be the best way to put it. They're just tired. They feel very beat up right now.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): Two weeks later, the President temporarily allowed untaxed farm diesel onto the highways through the end of the year.

KULPER: Buddy Biden retired this year, and he's constantly kind of, you know, checking on us. He goes, man, I'm glad I'm retired.

[12:55:09]

MATTINGLY: I mean, is there, like, a road map? Is there a path right now?

GOODHUE: I don't know. That's a good question. I was -- I wonder that a lot. So I don't know.

MATTINGLY: Are there days you wake up and don't want to do it?

GOODHUE: No, not this job. Are you kidding me? Bust out the door every morning to do this job.

MATTINGLY: That's about as good as it gets.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: What an amazing piece. We were talking, watching that, and you were saying, you know, they're not just farmers. They're basically like Goldman Sachs traders in the morning looking at what they need, what -- and what the market is showing and it's obviously not good news.

MATTINGLY (on-camera): Yes, it was so fascinating. You saw kind of Corey Goodhue really take us behind the scenes and look through his budget and how he was mapping it out on spreadsheets. And it's the idea of between how they operate with options, how they operate with their financial advisers, trying to hedge the risk in an extraordinarily volatile market.

I think to step back, kind of what this piece showed me that really threads with all the pieces we've done for this series, is it's not one thing or one bill or one payment that's driving why people feel so bad about the economy right now. It's the compounding nature of these structural issues. Farming's been dealing with this for years at this point in time. But what so many of the farmers I spoke to said is, look, if we know what the issues are, we can deal with it. They're in an industry that has a black swan on an annual basis. But given the scale of what they have to do, how many things they're responsible for, it's the uncertainty and the inability to adjust to something like an Iran war or conflict and what that does to prices that is really driving people that were already close to the brink, if not right at it, completely over.

And I think that maps into much broader than just Iowa. And it's really, really informs how you look at the political numbers and swing states around the country.

BASH: I mean, just listen to him saying, look, we're just so beat up. They are.

MATTINGLY (on-camera): Yes.

BASH: And you illustrated -- and also how much they love their job.

MATTINGLY (on-camera): More than anything in the world.

BASH: Thank you, Phil. Appreciate it.

Thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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