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Rogers, el-Sayed Face Off in Second Debate in Pivotal Race; Battle for Senate Control Shifts Into Deep Red Territory; Democrats Lead With Hispanic Voters by 40 Points. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 21, 2026 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: -- it's also at the center of the Democrats' hope to win control of the Senate. They need to hold this, plus win for other seats. Without this, that goes up to five, making it much more difficult. But this race has had so many cross currents, foreign policy, domestic policy. President Trump hanging over the race. He in fact is coming here on Sunday. I'm told Mike Rogers will be campaigning with him in Port Huron.

But former President Obama also coming here on Saturday to rally support for Abdul el-Sayed. Now, there are some concerns among Democratic leaders and voters we've talked to here about the strength of el-Sayed among a key constituency, Black voters. We talked to voters on both sides about that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NAURA EVANS, MICHIGAN VOTER: The outcome of the election will send a loud message that the Black vote is just not up for grabs. Like, you have to earn it. We are no longer just voting according to parties, but we are voting according to policy and plans.

REV. CHARLES WILLIAMS II, MICHIGAN VOTER: It only takes this much of Detroit to defect. It only takes this much of Flint to defect. It only takes this much of Saginaw or Inkster to defect. And that could be enough to put us under.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: And it is that sliver that Pastor Williams was talking about that does concern so many Democrats in a narrowly contested contest. Like most races here in Michigan are, there's no doubt that even a small number of votes either way can impact the race.

But again, for the next two weeks, Michigan will be at the center of this fight for control of the Senate. But the debate tonight could move the needle or perhaps leave it as close as ever for the next 13 days. Dana?

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT AND ANCHOR OF 'INSIDE POLITICS': Thank you, Jeff.

Coming up, how to win the Senate. Two veteran Senate strategists who have done it before will take us behind the scenes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:36:07]

BASH: We are in the 24/7, spend every last dollar, leave it all on the field moment. And one thing is clear, both parties view the Senate as a toss-up now. Let's talk about that and how campaigns, national parties, make these really critical and sometimes brutal decisions in the final hours with two veterans who have been in the room for really tough choices, making those choices.

Guy Cecil is a former Political Director and Executive Director at the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, where he helped Democrats recapture the Senate in the 2006 midterms. And Jason Theilman was the Executive Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024, when Republicans won their biggest Senate majority in a decade.

So you guys know how to win. That was a long way of saying you know how to win. I'm really excited for this.

GUY CECIL, FORMER POLITICAL DIRECTOR AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, DEMOCRATIC SENATE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Where we pick good timing.

BASH: Yeah, all of the above. I'm really excited for this discussion and I want to start this discussion by just seeing where we are and where we started. So one year ago, I want to show our viewers what the Senate map looked like.

This is the Cook Political Report map back in October of 2025. I mean, look how different it is from today's, which I'll show you in a second. But just for example, Georgia, I can get this, that was a toss-up, no longer. North Carolina was a toss-up, no longer. Those are going to be blue seats.

Texas was likely GOP, now that is a toss-up. Same goes for Iowa. But how about the states that aren't even on this map here? Not even talking about Nebraska, Kansas, or what about Alaska? Those are just some of the examples of things that aren't even talked about a year ago, and now we are where we are.

I mean, you can see the difference here. It is absolutely mind- blowing. I'm going to start with you because Republicans are probably the most eager to try to figure out -- they have a lot of money -- eager to figure out what they do, where they pull out, where they go. What are those discussions like when you have a map like this that was supposed to be so favorable to Republicans and now there's so much of the battlefield on GOP turf?

JASON THEILMAN, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE: Well, first I would start with, while there are some that certainly said this would be favorable, I think when you are in the midterm of the party in power, it's always going to be an unfavorable set of circumstances. So I don't think anyone's arguing about the weather. It's about what exactly you said, is how well prepared are Republicans for this moment. And, you know, we're fortunately in a situation where we're able to afford a rain jacket in inclement weather. So if you look at the spending in eight of these Senate races, in September, Republicans were able to outweigh Democrats by a combined total of $188 million. We're in a fortunate situation here where we're not necessarily having to make the same level of cutting-board decisions that you might see when you have a map that expands like it does currently.

So we have the luxury of being able to walk and chew gum at the same time. In some of these states where perhaps we were not expecting to have a degree of fight that we currently are.

BASH: Guy?

CECIL: I mean, I'm from South Florida. A rain jacket in a hurricane doesn't really help you that much. And I think that's really where Republicans are right now. And it's a combination of things. I think they have a more fundamental challenge, which is money is not working.

You know, you look at a state like Texas where they're spending tens of millions of dollars against James Talarico --

BASH: Texas.

CECIL: -- to undo the tens of millions of dollars they spent against Ken Paxton, who is now their nominee. Or you look at a place like Georgia where, you know, Mike Collins, who has hired far-right radicals, is just off the map because of the quality of the candidate.

[12:40:00]

I think for Democrats right now, it's about how do you move money into those expansion states in successful ways, right? Out of your 10,000 television ad in a state that already has 9,999 of them, not that effective. But when you move into a place like Kansas or Iowa, that's where you can really start making a difference.

BASH: So let's pull the map back up. You mentioned Kansas. You're doing some work for the Senate race in Kansas. Again, just -- I know we're sort of talking about it every day like it's a thing. This would be a historic moment if Democrats can actually do it. I want you both to talk about what you think that we should be looking for besides the painfully obvious in Kansas.

CECIL: Well, one, I think the differential and favorable ratings between the two candidates, you look at the public polling right now, Adam Hamilton has a net favorable rating at this point in the race, which is pretty unheard of. Roger Marshall has anywhere from a negative 16 to a negative 19 favorable rating.

Amongst Independents, he has a negative 50 approval rating. This is unheard of in a state like Kansas. And so I think what you're really going to be looking for is not just how are we driving turnout in Johnson County, but how are we doing in places like Sedgwick and the parts of the Wichita market outside of Sedgwick, where I think Adam in particular has specific reach. I mean, keep in mind, Adam is the pastor of the largest church in Kansas.

BASH: It is a megachurch, yeah.

CECIL: 500 churches in Kansas use his Bible studies and his books for their Sunday school lessons and for video content. So the reach there is not just about politics. It's about the kind of person Kansas deserves representing them.

BASH: So you obviously are doing -- maybe not obviously, I mentioned it -- but I'll say it and you're doing some work for Adam Hamilton. Your firm, your current firm is doing work in and around a lot of these Republican campaigns for Senate.

Just putting the map back up. What should I be circling here? Where are you sort of honing in? I know this is a multi-pronged strategy because you've got so many states you're defending, but where are you the most concerned?

THEILMAN: Well, I think going back to Kansas here --

BASH: Yeah.

THEILMAN: -- and I think this applies to many of the other states that we might be looking and talking about, is when you talk about polling and looking at some of these numbers, is it a ceiling or a floor? And I think the reality for people like Hamilton is what you are seeing right now for their numbers is a ceiling. What you are seeing for the Republican candidates is a floor.

And when you look at who the undecided voters are in the profile, they are going to fall where they're leaning, which, come Election Day, will be for the Republican candidate. I think this is --

BASH: Because it's Kansas?

THEILMAN: Because it's Kansas. You know, Guy, you did a great job of trying to sell a similar story in 2014 when you tried to convince us all that Pat Roberts was ready to fall, and the polling showed that Pat Roberts was behind the Independent candidate, yet lost by 11 points.

BASH: So, are you not worried about Kansas?

THEILMAN: I think only the paranoid survive is the approach that anyone should take in politics.

(LAUGH)

THEILMAN: But I am 100 percent confident that we're going to prevail in Kansas.

BASH: Let's just talk about --

THEILMAN: It's a sucker's bet for the Democrats. BASH: But before we end, I do want to talk about Michigan. There's a debate tonight, and it is blue territory that your party is defending.

And I'm just curious what you think of Abdul el-Sayed's strategy. We all saw that viral moment over the weekend when Tommy asked him if he would disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. And we've seen the way that el- Sayed responded to that, which was with a very lengthy explanation of why he thinks that that's a question of dual loyalties.

It wasn't just at that moment. He's saying it multiple times. He could take the tack of, of course, I disavow. What's the next question on gas prices? But he's not doing that. Is that the right move?

CECIL: Well, I think part of it is he's been asked this question or these types of questions over and over and over again. And I may have some differences with the candidate, but the reality is that this is what got him here. Right?

Republicans have been running tens of millions of dollars of ads against him since before the primary. And yet, he's still in a race where he leads Mike Rogers, you know, by three, four or five points. And so --

BASH: But if you were advising, would you say, just keep doing what you're doing or?

CECIL: Yeah. If I was advising him, I would -- I would say, look, ground yourself in Michigan, talk about your Michigan experience, ground yourself in your family history there, and then take the fight to Rogers.

BASH: And I just want to show that I actually do -- I actually do know where Michigan is. I know I circled the wrong one.

(LAUGH)

CECIL: It's OK.

BASH: That is Minnesota. That is Michigan. Real quick.

(LAUGH)

THEILMAN: It's like, let's, you know, not what he's doing. I mean, they ought to take him and put him in a bunker somewhere because every time he opens his mouth, he continues to perpetuate a problem. And I think Senator Kennedy said it best. When he goes to bed at night, it looks like he's sleeping in Bin Laden's jersey. I mean, he is just --

(CROSSTALK)

CECIL: I mean, let me just say, this is -- you want to know why he answers the question? Because you have -- I mean, it's one thing to criticize a policy. Talking about a guy being in Osama Bin Laden's jersey is pretty disgusting. And I think this is why he answers the questions the way he does. And it's this type of overreach.

[12:45:00]

(CROSSTALK)

THEILMAN: Let's discuss --

(CROSSTALK)

CECIL: This type of overreach -- this type of overreach -- you can criticize.

(CROSSTALK)

CECIL: Overtalking me doesn't make you right. And you'll want to apologize for what you just said, later. The reality is, you can criticize his positions on Israel without saying he sleeps in Osama Bin Laden's jersey. It is OK to criticize candidates. It is not OK to do what he's doing, what Vivek is doing, which is taking this campaign to a different level because they are so desperate to overcome what is a fundamentally flawed election cycle for Democrats, or for Republicans, and a fundamentally flawed president.

And that's why these races are on the ballot. That's why we're talking about Kansas, and not Georgia, and not North Carolina.

THEILMAN: You're expanding your reach, but you're not expanding your grasp.

CECIL: We'll see. Time will tell.

(CROSSTALK)

THEILMAN: And the fact that we are talking about Michigan in the midterms of the party in power is really actually exhibit A in the fact that your party has completely failed to recruit the quality of candidates. You recognize this on the front end, when you did everything -- the party did everything in its power to avoid him to be the nominee and failed miserably.

CECIL: How did Mike Rogers do in his last election?

THEILMAN: Now you're paying the price.

CECIL: How did your recruit did in his last election?

BASH: OK.

THEILMAN: He came with an 18,000 votes.

BASH: We're not going to solve this here. That took a turn. I'm not going to, you know, I did not expect that to turn into a debate. And, you know, that was -- I think it was important what you said, and I appreciate you both being here. Thank you. Thank you both.

Up next, John King is in a Texas toss-up district where Republicans see warning signs and Democrats are dreaming of a historic turnout.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAISY ALCAZAR, TEXAS VOTER: If we get united and we show up, I mean, we could flip everything. The reality is, is it going to happen? Will my people show up? We don't know.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:50:14]

BASH: A new CNN poll underscores why Republicans are sweating over Southern Texas, the House districts there, with a high percentage of Latino voters. Nationwide Hispanic voters favor Democrats by 40 percentage points, 60-to-20. 15 percent do not plan to vote.

CNN's John King is "All Over the Map" in a Texas district, wondering if they will turn out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT & ANCHOR OF "ALL OVER THE MAP" (voice-over): Corpus Christi Bay, Southeast Texas, a spot on the map that was supposed to be a safe harbor for Republicans this year.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm calling on behalf of James Talarico, Gina Hinojosa, and Democrats down the ballot (ph).

KING (voice-over): Supposed to be.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're asking for your support, for your vote.

KING (voice-over): It's crunch time and Nueces County Democrats are bursting with energy, believing even ruby-red Texas might be part of a giant midterm message.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Connect with each other and figure out what we need to do ahead.

KING (voice-over): The governor's race is tight, so is a nasty Senate clash. And the House race here in Texas 34, a toss-up too despite election-year redistricting, Texas Republicans thought would paint it red.

This picture does speak a thousand words. The Speaker of the House trying to save his narrow majority, looking out at the very reason he is on the road non-stop. Yes, it's a hot sweltering weekday, but still a tiny crowd. Republicans are worried about enthusiasm, worried about turnout, worried about a big swing blue from Latino voters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They say that Texas is going to turn blue, is it true?

CROWD: No.

KING (voice-over): The Politics bar is in the slice of Corpus Christi added to the redrawn 34th. Four friends around the table, two Democrats and two Republicans.

KING: So let's skip the parties and the names for a minute.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

KING: Raise your hand if you think things need to change. OK, so that's everybody at the table.

KING (voice-over): Republicans Milton Reyna and Richard Contreras in a very different mood from our first chat here eight months ago.

MILTON REYNA, TEXAS VOTER: I don't trust what's being said right now. I think we've been told the same thing over and over again and we haven't seen any results, any action from it. And yeah, I am disappointed.

RICHARD CONTRERAS, TEXAS VOTER: Our war is the problem, to be honest with you. I think we're struggling with that and we need to get out of that. We need to finish it and move on.

KING (voice-over): Still on Team Abbott for governor.

CONTRERAS: I like Abbott.

REYNA: I like Abbott too.

KING (voice-over): But Republican Senate nominee, Ken Paxton turns their stomachs.

KING: You're a Republican and you're having a hard time in a race that could determine which party controls the United States Senate.

CONTRERAS: I need to be an American first. I think, honestly, and I have to make that decision based on character. And right now, Paxton's character is just not doing it.

KING (voice-over): This side of the table is excited.

KING: Does this time feel actually different that it's possible as opposed to a dream?

RAMON HERRERA, TEXAS VOTER: It does. It does.

ADELITA CAVADA, TEXAS VOTER: I think it's different.

KING: Ramon Herrera is betting on a big swing in the Latino vote.

HERRERA: We need to stop Trump from everything that he's doing. It's not working out for us.

CAVADA: Yeah, I'm saying --

KING (voice-over): And Adelita Cavada sees another positive for Democrats.

CAVADA: I've seen young people more excited this time on the line in person.

KING (voice-over): The new 34th stretches 150 miles from Corpus Christi to the Mexican border. Kingsville is conservative, working class, more than 70 percent Hispanic. The lines for the Kingsway Family Church food bank keep getting longer.

PASTOR STEVE MARTINEZ, TEXAS VOTER: You know, the economy right now has been hard, but like from people, you ask people right now, food is getting expensive, gas and then in our community right now, lately, our electric utilities have gotten real expensive.

KING (voice-over): Pastor Steve Martinez votes his values. Abortion, gay and transgender rights matter most to him, and he will vote Republican. But at the moment, prices matter most to many of his congregants.

MARTINEZ: Just a while ago, I think one guy just was in line. He's like, man, I'm just struggling. The economy is hard. You know, it's like, what do I do?

KING (voice-over): Plus, a lot of anger at ICE enforcement. Even Trump supporter Martinez says is too aggressive and is reaching way beyond the bad guys.

MARTINEZ: A lot of people's decision is going to be now because of what the big -- ICE has been just hard on a lot of families.

KING: And if their decision is made by that, then they're voting for Democrats. They're voting against Trump, right?

MARTINEZ: Yeah.

[12:55:00]

CHRISTINA ALVAREZ, (D) TEXAS CAMPAIGN STAFF: [Foreign Language].

KING (voice-over): Christina Alvarez, among the campaign workers walking door-to-door in working-class neighborhoods, vital to Democratic hopes.

ALVAREZ: I'm here on behalf of Vicente Gonzalez for Congress. Sorry?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's my man.

ALVAREZ: Oh, he's your man. Awesome. That's good to hear.

KING (voice-over): But a few doors down, a reminder every vote matters.

ALVAREZ: [Foreign Language].

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: [Foreign Language].

ALVAREZ: OK. Undecided.

KING (voice-over): This neighborhood is a bit more upscale. Daisy Alcazar and her husband bought here eight years ago.

ALCAZAR, TEXAS VOTER: This is home.

KING: But you say at the moment home doesn't always feel like home.

ALCAZAR: There's a lot of fear in the community.

KING: Even here?

ALCAZAR: Yep. People are inside their houses, not going outside unless they need to for survival.

KING: Ten or twelve?

ALCAZAR: Ten. Your reading skills are not --

KING: I didn't even look at the box. That's the box.

(LAUGH)

KING (voice-over): La Pale is Alcazar's business. Traditional Mexican ice cream treats.

KING: This is what most people would think of as the American dream. Family with immigrant roots, starts a business, employs people, makes their community richer in every way.

ALCAZAR: I'm proud. I'm proud to be Mexican. I'm proud to represent our culture. I'm proud to grow and scale the business. But we have never seen this before. We have never seen our community being hunted down in the streets.

And that is the reality of what's happening.

KING (voice-over): Alcazar had to close a couple of shops during COVID. She will continue to sell to grocery stores and to restaurants. But this last storefront is closing soon.

KING: This right now is worse than the pandemic?

ALCAZAR: Oh, a thousand percent times. Because when there's fear in the community, it paralyzes you. You don't eat, and we don't have customers. I sell ice cream for the love of God. We sell paletas. We are the cherry on the top, where it's joy and the experience here should be joy, should be happiness. Where the reality is, we don't have customers.

KING (voice-over): Alcazar is voting blue in every race she can, hoping to send a message to the president and to the governor.

She urges everyone she sees to vote and to take along family and friends. But she worries that fear will keep people home, or the belief it just won't make a difference.

ALCAZAR: If we get united and we show up, I mean, we could flip everything. The reality is, is it going to happen? Will my people show up? We don't know.

KING (voice-over): John King, CNN, Brownsville, Texas.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Thank you for joining "Inside Politics." "CNN News Central" starts after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)