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Isa Soares Tonight

Russia Ignores Battlefield Reality With Annexations; Protests Hit Iran's Most Prestigious University; Liz Truss Scrubs Controversial Tax Cuts After Massive Backlash; British Finance Minister Addresses Party After Tax Cut U-Turn; Bolsonaro And Lula To Face Off In Presidential Runoff Vote; At Least 125 Killed In Crush Including 33 Children. Aired 2-3p ET

Aired October 03, 2022 - 14:00   ET



ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: A very warm welcome to the show everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, as Russian politicians claim to annex

new territory in Ukraine, CNN takes you inside a key city where Russian soldiers have just been pushed out. Then protests hit Iran's most

prestigious university, and the crackdown follows. We hear from a student who was there.

And then later this hour, U-turn by the new British government, while Liz Truss scrubs some of her controversial tax cuts and what impact that could

have on the pound after its sharp drop last week. But first, Russian lawmakers have began approving President Putin's decision to annex four

parts of Ukraine, a process the United Nations says is illegal under international law.

Well, on Monday, Russia's lower house of parliament ratified the annexation, and tomorrow, the upper house is expected to do the same. But

the Kremlin admits, it hasn't figured out the boldest of the land it claims to be annexing. And Russia is losing its grip on the land it does hold.

Russian forces were forced out of the key city of Lyman this weekend, thanks to that Ukrainian forces have been able to push further into

Luhansk. Ukraine is also getting ground in the occupied city of Kherson, and that is in the south. Our Nick Paton Walsh has just been inside the

newly-liberated city of Lyman, he brings us this report tonight.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Isa, it is a remarkable strategic defeat for Russia, and one that we saw firsthand as

the first television crew into Lyman. And startlingly, there was a feeling of utter ghostliness, signs that possibly some Russians had managed to

leave under their own steam at some point.

But it forms part of a series of losses for the Kremlin which continues after the fall of Lyman in an easterly direction. But here is what we saw

in that strategic town from Moscow.


WALSH (voice-over): It may not look like much, but this is where Putin's defeat in Donetsk began, a prize from the last century perhaps, but train

and tracks are still how Russia wages war today. Lyman, what's left of it now freed of Russia.

(on camera): Well, this is what it was all about, the central railway hub here now in Ukrainian hands, and devastated by the fighting. And this was

such a seminal part of Russia's occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk, the concern for Moscow is a knock-on effect this is going to have for their

forces all the way to the Russian border.

(voice-over): On the town's edges, we saw no sign of the hundreds of Russian prisoners or dead that had been expected to follow Moscow's

strategic defeat here nor and sighted either, perhaps they have already been taken away, instead utter silence. Only local bicycles on the streets.

Several residents told us the Russians actually left in large numbers on Friday.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): They left in the night and day, people said. I didn't see it myself. But they say they sat on their APCs

and their bags were falling off as they drove. They ran like this.

WALSH: It would be remarkable timing that Russia fled Lyman in the very same hours that Putin was signing papers, declaring here Russian territory

and holding a rally on Red Square. A similar story in the local administration where the only signs of Russia left are burnt flags. "They

ran away without saying a word to anybody", he says. "It was bad, no work, no gas, no power, nothing. The shops didn't work."

(on camera): It truly feels as if there is nobody left. Ghostly silence here. Apart of occasional shelling and small arms fire. And it is so much

of this town, utterly destroyed. So many locals were told leaving when the Ukrainians pushed towards it began, but now it's just this utter

ghostliness and a place that's such a strategic defeat for Russia.

(voice-over): Gunfire in the distance. They're nervous, some Russians may be left. Outside, what's left of the court, the constant change in violence

is too much for some. Her husband, just arrested.



WALSH: The Ukrainian troops we did see had already stopped celebrating. There's little time. They're on the move, again. Another Russian target

further east, Kreminna in their sights. And those left in Lyman, a town cursed to have these bars of rusting steel running through it. They're

gathering the ruins to burn for fuel with Winter ahead. Left in the wake of Russia's collapse here, a town they took weeks to occupy, only hours to



WALSH: Now, just today, we've heard from the Kremlin, thus, while they are currently ratifying their legislation that Russia says internally, means

that now occupied parts of Ukraine are in fact Russia in their opinion. They can't actually specify exactly where the borders of two of those

regions they say they now control Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where they begin and where they end.

And in fact, the Kremlin spokesperson said today that they'll be discussing with the local population exactly where the borders would be. A remarkable

admission frankly, suggesting that they just don't know quite where their control will end up being.

And it caps really a tumultuous few days for Moscow where the gulf between their ambitions, their rhetoric and what's been happening on the ground,

which is repeated failure after failure of Russia's military has been exposed globally with even members of the Russian elite publicly bickering

about quite what to do next, Isa?

SOARES: Nick Paton Walsh in Lyman there, Ukraine. Well, the U.S. is considering how it would respond to one of the biggest, most existential

threats really coming from Russia, and that is the use of nuclear weapons. President Vladimir Putin has promised, if you remember, to protect what he

claims as Russian territory by quote, "all available means".

And his ally, Chechnya President Ramzan Kadyrov has suggested using low- yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Although, the Kremlin has brushed that off. But the fact that Russian officials have hinted about nuclear weapons

at all, is something U.S. is taking seriously. Have a listen.


LLOYD AUSTIN, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, UNITED STATES: This nuclear saber- rattling is not the kind of thing that we would expect to hear from leaders of large countries with capability. The guy who makes that decision, I

mean, is one man. There are no checks on Mr. Putin, just as he made the irresponsible decision to invade Ukraine, you know, he could make another


But, I don't see anything right now that would lead me to believe that he has made such a decision.


SOARES; And of course, we'll have more reaction from the U.S. a bit later in the show, and we'll take you live to the Pentagon. In the meantime, a

prestigious university in Iran's capital city became a battleground this weekend as riot police violently cracked down on hundreds of protesters.

This was Tehran Sharif University on Sunday where chanting students were met with force. And you can hear popping sounds in the background, one

student told us, well, it was like a war zone. Have a listen.




SOARES: Then on Monday, as you can see in this video obtained by the pro- reform activist outlet Iran Wayar(ph), security forces cruised through the streets firing paintballs at passersby. Young people have erupted in dozens

of cities after a 22-year-old woman died in custody of the morality police. Iran's supreme leader is blaming the protests on U.S., on Israel and on

unidentified traitors. CNN's Jomana Karadsheh spoke exclusively with a student who rushed to the university to help his friends.


JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A snapshot of a night of horror at one of Iran's most prestigious universities. Chaos,

panic, and fear as students, some of Iran's best and brightest ran through the Sharif University car-park in Tehran chased by security forces on foot

and on motorbikes.

Those who couldn't escape the violent crackdown, hooded and taken away. We don't know what happened after this shot was fired. Birdshot and paintballs

were used to crush the protest, and to stop those who were trying to film.


As news spread, crowds gathered outside, chanting, free the students. Fears of a repeat of the bloody 1999 crackdown on student protests, students were

attacked in their dormitories at Tehran University. CNN tracked down one of those who rushed to save students trapped inside, for his safety, we're

concealing his identity.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I saw this SOS call from Sharif coming, and one of my friends called and he just told me that, please come save us, they are

shooting at us. I took one of my friends with me so he could help me a little bit. So, we got on our bikes, and we went there, and we practically

had to (INAUDIBLE) our way into the university because they had guns, they had paintball guns, they had batons. It was a war zone and there was blood


KARADSHEH: No one really knows how many were hurt, how many were dragged away. The little video in harrowing accounts still trickling out paints a

picture of the ruthless force used after students refused to attend classes and some chanted insults against the supreme leader.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Many students were let out by the security forces of the university. They were then stopped, they were told that if you go near

the -- station, we will start shooting. Go back into the university. One of the teachers, one of the professors was trying to get a few of the students

out. They told him to get the children out, and you can go. And he said, no.

After that, he came out of the car himself, locked the doors, they beat him up. A lot of the professors actually tried to save the students.

KARADSHEH: Students in their thousands are staging protests on campuses and on the streets across the country. What started with demands for

justice and accountability for the death of Mahsa Amini has quickly morphed into more daring widespread calls for regime change, for bringing down the

repressive Islamic Republic.

Anger that has been building for years captured in video like this one. Protesters into Tehran tearing down and destroying the Islamic Republic

street sign.


The regime that has a bloody history of suppressing dissent is only just beginning to unleash all its got against its own people. But defiant

protesters say, this time, there will be no turning back.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, this is far from over. We are not scared. We are outraged. We are furious. You know, these people think that we are the few

previous generation that if they do this, we're going to just stop. We are not going to stop. This is a one-way road for us, because if we stop,

they're going to kill even more people, take even more people into custody, torture them, rape them.

These people can't do anything, so, we won't stop. This is not the end, I promise you that.

KARADSHEH: Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Istanbul.


SOARES: Important report there from Jomana Karadsheh. I want to return now to the nuclear threat, back and certainly if you remember, I told you

earlier that Russia might turn to so-called low-yield nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine. The U.S. is preparing. Oren Liebermann joins me now

from the Pentagon.

And Oren, good to see you. What we have seen in the last week, I think is fair to say, is how quickly really Putin has escalated this war, how

febrile it has become. If Putin does escalate it further, Oren, how might the U.S. or the West respond here?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is what the U.S. and the Biden administration have been looking at very carefully,

especially on the question of what happens in the event that the Kremlin, and that is Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to use a so-called

low-yield nuclear weapon, otherwise known as a tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapon.

And of course, the officials here won't say this is the option, this is what we're considering, but they are aware of the increased rhetoric. The

escalatory rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin, and they're looking at different ways in which the U.S. might respond to that, in which ways the

U.S. might handle that.

Now, of course, here, there are few important points to make. First, repeatedly, Pentagon officials have said what they're focusing on right now

is purely the language, the rhetoric around nuclear weapons. They have said that they haven't seen anything that would compel or force the U.S. to

change its own nuclear posture.

Which is to say that the U.S. doesn't see anything on the Russian side that indicates that Russia is about to use its own nuclear weapon or that it's

preparing for that eventuality, and that of course, is an incredibly important point. But underlying that is the Biden administration also

saying that the arms will continue to flow to Ukraine.

Now, just because there is a threat of Russian escalation, that doesn't change the U.S.' calculation on how it approaches this conflict. Meaning,

the U.S. will continue to send advanced weaponry to Ukraine, in much what we've seen before, this weekly, sometimes even biweekly flow of

announcements of shipments of weapons and equipment packages to Ukraine.


And Russia's nuclear threats, the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin doesn't change that as the U.S. prepares to see how else it might respond

if Russia decides to escalate this further. And of course, in the scenario at this point and likely scenario as it seems right now of Russia turning

to the option of -- Putin turning to the option of using a nuclear weapon.

SOARES: Yes, just explain to our viewers, Oren, what, you know, low-yield nuclear weapons, what we're talking about here, because I'm guessing

they're dangerously destructive nevertheless?

LIEBERMANN: Absolutely. And of course, there's a wider debate about whether there even is such a thing, because of the power of nuclear

weapons. The idea behind a quote, "low-yield nuclear weapon" is simply that it's not as large a detonation. that it doesn't destroy as large an area.

And you can more or less target a specific area, a specific location and instead of doing mass destruction. Regardless of whether that is a thing or

not, a sort of low-yield nuclear weapon. Obviously, the United States and its western partners and allies view the use of any kind of nuclear weapon

incredibly seriously.

And they've promised that there would be a very strong response in the event that the Kremlin does this. There are other options to create a sort

of nuclear scenario or a nuclear warning. For example, the Kremlin might attempt to strike the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant or conduct a nuclear


These again are ways of sort of trying to carry out larger escalations without the use on the battlefield of a nuclear weapon. The U.S. watching

for all of this.

SOARES: We heard on Friday at the signing ceremony in Moscow, Putin basically saying that Russia would use all available means to kind of

defend the area he proclaimed to have annexed. Did those words -- did that rhetoric that you were talking about, Oren, does that change the strategy

at all on the ground from the U.S. perspective?

LIEBERMANN: It does not. The U.S. has seen this, of course, everybody here was listening to that, and it's part of the concerning rhetoric. But the

arms will continue to flow to Ukraine, and there's been no restriction or limitation placed upon Ukrainian forces by the use of U.S. weaponry.

Meaning, they can still use the weapons they have been given. The HIMARS launchers, the multiple rocket launchers to strike territory that is

Ukraine even if Russia now claims that it's part of Russia. So, there's been no difference there from the U.S. perspective.

SOARES: Important context. Oren Liebermann, great to see you, thanks very much. And still to come tonight, a prime minister in trouble, an

embarrassing U-turn and the U.K. economy hanging in the balance, we'll have much more on that just ahead. Bianca Nobilo and Richard Quest are next.



SOARES: Welcome back. Now, the British government has made a sharp as well as embarrassing U-turn, abandoning its controversial tax-cut plan for top

earners. It is a big political move from Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose mini budget or budget as Richard would call it caused the pound to crash

last week. And it comes as the conservative party conference kicks off today. Here is Finance Minister Kwesi Kwarteng speaking earlier. Have a



KWASI KWARTENG, CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER: I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence, I get it. I get it. We are

listening and have listened. And now, I want to focus on delivering the major parts of our growth package. Because with energy bills skyrocketing,

a painful COVID aftermath, war on our continent, a 70-year-high tax burden, slowing global growth rates, and glacially slow infrastructure delivery, we

couldn't simply do nothing.


SOARES: Well, the question is, can Truss win back the support of her party and the country after what many are calling a disastrous first month in

power. Richard Quest joins me here in London, Bianca Nobilo joins me live from the Tory Party Conference in Birmingham. Bianca, great to see you,

Richard, thanks for being here.

Let me start there. That U-turn, that dramatic U-turn, Bianca, and reversal policy. Did that restore faith in those there, in those conservative party

members there?

BIANCA NOBILO, CNN ANCHOR & CORRESPONDENT: Oh, no, not yet. And in fact, it's raised even more concerns because there were those who were always

worried about the prime minister's ability to flip-flop politically. She was once upon a time a member of the liberal democrat party. Now, she's a

hard-right conservative.

In some people's view, she was against Brexit, and now she's a supporter of Brexit, and she's changed her mind before. So, MPs and people here are

losing even more trust because they feel like they don't know what she's going to do next. It's also the way that the prime minister and the

chancellor didn't communicate their plans well to the country and to the financial markets.

That's another worry. And also, this inability to take the temperature and recognize the optics of committing to cut taxes for the wealthiest, to

remove the cap from bankers' bonuses while the country is struggling with the cost of living crisis. So, it definitely hasn't done anything today to

help the situation of the conservative party.

The prime minister speaks on Wednesday. But Isa, I would say, this is a prime minister who had such little political capital to begin with.

SOARES: Yes --

NOBILO: Because she barely had any mandate ushered in by 0.2 percent of the electorate. So, she doesn't have any to spare and it is rapidly


SOARES: Please stay with us. Richard, I don't know what you made of this speech, but there was no apology, no mea culpa and actually, he didn't

address many of the main points, inflation concerns, mortgages rising. What did you make of it?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: There's never a wrong time to do the right thing. And so far as the reversal will have been welcomed by

the market. You can see it if we look at the way --

SOARES: Look at the FTSE --

QUEST: The pounds -- well, the pound or the FTSE --

SOARES: Let me bring up the FTSE here --

QUEST: Yes, so, you can see. So you see slight little bit of encouragement from equities as they digested what have been said. But it's still quite a

way off from where it was. And similarly, with the pound --

SOARES: Yes --

QUEST: Similarly, you will see -- now, this is where --

SOARES: That's --

QUEST: You have the massive fall, and you do have an optic to 113. But these are from very low levels.

SOARES: I mean, that didn't really move that much, did it? Following that --

QUEST: Yes --

SOARES: U-turn?

QUEST: No, but no, that's U-turn --

SOARES: Yes --

QUEST: At the ending. So you do get a feeling the market is saying, hang on a second, fine, you realize the stupidity of what you've done. But you

still haven't recognized we need to see how you're going to pay, because the 45 percent tax rate was really just --

SOARES: Yes --

QUEST: The end bit. The big thing is, the national insurance cut. The big thing is, 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax. All the other bits are

truly expensive.

SOARES: So we're still at credibility deficiency here from this government? This --

QUEST: No --

SOARES: Do anything -- yes, go ahead.

QUEST: Credibility elimination. This government has no credibility with the market at the moment. And what they've done, they had to do what they

did because the damage --

SOARES: Yes --

QUEST: Was so bad. But let's not be fooled that they actually wanted to do it. And the market is aghast that anybody, 'A' thought it was a good policy

to begin with, and 'B' communicated it so badly.

SOARES: Let's bring up Bianca. So, Bianca, given what we heard today, I mean, it must have been somewhat humiliating for Kwasi Kwarteng. When I was

listening to his speech, he basically then started blaming the previous administration, the very people that were sitting in front of him. What is

the mood right now where you are?


NOBILO: The mood is bad. It's really strange. It's subdued. It's fractious. I've heard a minister not far from our camera berate a

journalist in a fit of swear words about how what the government is doing is being covered. I've had plenty of MPs give me very juicy quotes about

what they think is going on, none of which I can repeat to you on air because you'd have to bleed the entire thing out.

Obviously, this is where the party faithful have congregated. And there are less MPs than usual at the conference. These are people that you'd expect

to be supporting the party, but they also care about its electoral fortune. And that's where a lot of the anger is coming from. They can't understand

why the government on the one hand is undermining its economic credibility as you were just saying.

But equally, painting themselves out as the nasty party, yet again, it's on the side of the wealthy when people are really struggling. So, throughout

the day, we've had so much criticism of the government, and we're even starting to hear one or two MPs openly say of the conservative party that

if Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng wants to take policy in a completely new direction, they need to go to the country and call an election.

And we know how these things work. Whatever is being said publicly is just a tip of the iceberg. So there is a lot more consternation --

SOARES: Yes --

NOBILO: And discussion about this privately. And there's already talk about how she might go. That is obviously not looking likely right now, the

party don't want to be seen to change leader again. But there are discussions about it, how they could oust her.

SOARES: Your thoughts, Richard.

QUEST: Today, the chancellor and the prime minister sounded like the opposition. Talking about low growth over many years, high taxes over many

years, conveniently forgetting they are the ones who have been in office for the last dozen years. So, not only are they dropping on their own

people, they are -- you know, they are forgetting they are the ones responsible.

SOARES: So, Bianca, Richard, let me put this to you, really interesting quote today, Bianca, just hold on here for just a second, from Martin Wolf

from the "FT", "there must be fiscal and monetary stability", goes on, "Truss and Kwarteng will not deliver this. Unfunded tax cuts and the

investment zones will certainly not", he said, "deliver this.

And now the big jump in inequality will not deliver this. These people are mad, bad and dangerous. They have to go." How soon will they hold on to


QUEST: That I'm not prepared to say, although Bianca is much more qualified at that. But I will tell you, Martin Wolf is on "QUEST MEANS


SOARES: Oh, it's -- we'll let you go --

QUEST: In 35 minutes.

SOARES: Well, Bianca, let me ask you this, do you think then that Liz Truss will lead the conservatives into the next election?

NOBILO: I think the jury is out on that at the moment to coin a phrase that Liz Truss used in reference to her relationship with Emmanuel Macron;

the French President. There are those who have told me and say frequently privately now, that who are conservatives, say that the conservative party

needs or deserves to spell an opposition.

To regroup, to get themselves together to figure out what they stand for. I mean, people have been saying that for some time. But now, there is a

feeling of rudderlessness and needing to reorganize. There are people that already want Liz Truss out, those who might be the supporters of Rishi

Sunak who say he called everything right and Liz Truss has got everything wrong.

But she's even starting to lose some of her supporters. And I heard from one or two today, who said that they really didn't like the way that she's

behaving vis-a-vis the chancellor, because they think she quote, "threw him under the bus" by putting all the blame for the economic package squarely

at his feet.

And he said he accepted and owned the humiliation and contrition. I'll just pick up on what you and Richard were just saying about the fact that the

Conservative Party have been in government for 12 years. And I was told by a member of the prime minister's team, that -- sort of, and the discussion

we had a few weeks ago, that part of this radical agenda was to have a clear departure from the Johnson years, almost marked this government as

something different.

That they aren't the ones that are responsible for the mistakes of the past. This is a change from the status quo. But nobody sees that because

clearly, there's a continuity of conservative government. And all these new plans have really done on-mask with the party, is isolate everybody that

was concerned about them and even get some of her supporters quite suspicious about the communication strategy, how she's treating her key

allies in cabinet.

And even earlier today, I asked cabinet minister what he thought of the chancellor's speech, and I quote directly, he said -- and then ran away.


So, I don't think there's a huge amount of --

SOARES: They're all hiding for cover, Bianca --

NOBILO: For the chancellor did today or the prime minister.

SOARES: But what is clear Richard --

NOBILO: Yes, you get me on --

SOARES: Final thought to you is that, whatever policy they've got -- if I bring the FTSE in the last few days over its -- it's not playing ball for

there -- they need to do much more than just this 45 pence tax U-turn to get this moving again --


QUEST: They have to come up with the numbers to show that what they are planning to do is in the words of the chancellor, fiscally sustainable,

responsibly so.

SOARES: Richard Quest, thanks very much. Bianca Nobilo, thanks very much. Good to see you, Bianca.


SOARES: Welcome back to the show, everyone. Jair Bolsonaro is celebrating what he calls the "greatest victory" in Brazil's presidential election. But

that so-called victory is not an outright win and not even in first place. Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva came out on top, but didn't

flinch more than 50 percent of the votes, meaning he and Bolsonaro will go head to head in a runoff vote at the end of this month. Let's take a look -

- closer look now.


SOARES: It was close but just not enough. Many had hoped for an outright win for Lula da Silva, but his supporters were still infused by a first

place finish in the first round. The former president received 48.43 percent of votes cast. He's now seen as the big favorite going into the

runoff vote and he believes they'll win.


LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (through translator): The Workers Party will win the elections in the second round,

and we will win because Brazil needs us.


SOARES: Mood at the opposing camp was more muted, but there was still cause for celebration. Heading into the vote, Jair Bolsonaro had criticized polls

saying they had underestimated his support. With over 43 percent of the votes and finishing well above most predictions, the Brazilian President

felt vindicated.


JAIR BOLSONARO, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We overcame the polling line. We now go into the second round where the odds are the same

for both sides.



SOARES: And there's little respite for either candidate, both now vying for that extra support that can get them over the finish line. For Bolsonaro,

that means drawing on the support of an old ally.


DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: President Bolsonaro, he's done a absolutely incredible job with your economy, with your country.


SOARES: But the numbers tell a different story. Latin America's largest economy has struggled since a major recession in 2017. With poverty running

rampant, specially in Brazil's poorest neighborhoods.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): Health is difficult. Security very bad. Inflation is very high.


SOARES: With Brazil having some of the world's highest COVID-19 cases and death toll, Bolsonaro was criticized for his handling of the pandemic and

its economic fallout. It's here that Bolsonaro is fighting an uphill battle.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We expect total change. The current government has been a total failure since the beginning.


SOARES: But Lula's past convictions on corruption charges, accusations he has denied, which were later nulled, could level the playing field.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Brazil went through a time of very serious corruption and Jair Bolsonaro has not shown the corruption Lula



SOARES: In what is Brazil's most polarizing and bitterly divisive presidential election in decades, the battle between these two populace

will finally come to an end on October 30th. With pollsters struggling to predict an outcome, it's anyone's guess as to who will come out on top.


SOARES: Well, let's discuss that now with one of Brazil's leading political analyst, journalist, and author, Thomas Traumann joins me now live from Rio

de Janeiro. Thomas, great to have you back on the show. Look, we didn't focus too much on the polls for obvious reasons, but it's clear that

Bolsonaro defied the polls. Explain how these polls miscalculated Bolsonaro's gains.

THOMAS TRAUMANN, BRAZILIAN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hello. Basically what we saw yesterday in Brazil was a battle of rejections, people who reject Bolsonaro

and people who reject Lula. What polls underestimated was the fact that Lula da Saliva's camp tried to win in the first round. So they made all

their campaign on having 50 plus one in the first round, made that many people in Brazil who really dislike Lula went to Bolsonaro. So, this was

made basically why the polls, who had saw that Bolsonaro would get something around 39 to 40 percent of the votes, in reality got 43. So --

but even so, this is not a new election. The idea that this nowadays start in the same way is not really right.

SOARES: And now what we have, Thomas, is, you know, a month really of campaigning. Does that plate Bolsonaro's advantage? How do you think their

strategies will change here?

TRAUMANN: Yes, Bolsonaro has the momentum. But must remember that, I mean, Lula got 48.4. I mean, he's so close to the victory. So Lula is still the

favorite, there's no doubt about that. What we will see in the next weeks will be Lula being forced to give more information on his economic program,

and trying to get more from the modern votes to make a broader coalition if he wins. At the same time, we will see Bolsonaro struggling on the anti-

left speech that made him so popular in Brazil, and still is his main target during this campaign.

SOARES: And what I did notice, Thomas, was that at least seven of Bolsonaro's former ministers and allies were actually elected to Congress.

I mean, what does this tell you? Does this suggest perhaps that even if Bolsonaro doesn't win on October 30th, that Bolsonaro perhaps is very much

alive and their job for Lula will be very hard?

TRAUMANN: Perfect. You are completely right. Especially on the Senate, Lula -- the Senate in Brazil is much more conservative and right-wing in -- will

be next year -- or next years than it was today. This was a great Bolsonaro victory in various very important states from former ministers who were

almost unknown before they joined the Bolsonaro government. And so I mean, this just shows how very popular Bolsonaro is in certain states, especially

on the states where the agribusiness is important, the south of Brazil and the Center West.

At the same time, we saw the election of the House of Representatives, where also this was not really a good result for Lula. So if Lula gets

elected, he will have very -- great difficulties on negotiating Congress next year.


SOARES: And, of course, what you and I, and our viewers, would have heard the past year is really Bolsonaro sowing doubt in Brazil's electoral system

without any evidence whatsoever, and the fact that he won. Let's bear that in mind. But if Lula does win by a narrow margin here, Thomas, I mean, will

that make it harder, you think, for Bolsonaro to accept the results? How would you see this playing out?

TRAUMANN: I'm afraid you're right again. Yes. The fact that we -- one of the great -- one -- people were calling in Brazil was the fact that once

the polls showed that Lula had a 10 percent margin, it will be more difficult for Bolsonaro to contest the results. Now, if we go to second

round, even so that Lula wins for let's say, six percent margin or six percent margin, something like that, it makes it let's say easier for

Bolsonaro to contest, especially because he will win in many important states quite clearly. In the south of Brazil, in the Southwest, and

probably in the largest state, the state of Sao Paulo.

So Bolsonaro would have more people and more, let's say, information to claim that really it was a rigged election, and that he might contest and

we will -- could have an institutional crisis in Brazil after the election.

SOARES: Yes, it's going to be a very divisive election. Very - two very different visions, of course, for the soul of Brazil. Thomas Traumann, it's

always great to have you on the show. Thank you, Thomas. And still to come tonight.

TRAUMANN: Thank you very much.

SOARES: Terrifying scenes in Indonesia as the country sees one of the worst stadium disasters in history, what happened and who might be responsible.

That's just ahead.


SOARES: Now officials in Indonesia are investigating after a football match in East Java turned deadly over the weekend. Video from the stands shows

police firing tear gas at fans after the storm the pitch. At least 125 people were killed in the crush that followed, many of them children. One

fan recalls his own terrifying experience. Have a listen to this.


AHMAD RIZAL HABIBI, INDONESIA STADIUM CRUSH SURVIVOR (through translator): Suddenly, I heard people screaming and explosions. I didn't know whether it

was firecrackers. Then it became more difficult to breathe and my eyes got irritated. Then I saw smoke coming out from one corner of the stand.



SOARES: Well, our Will Ripley has more on how this tragedy happened and who may be responsible.

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: as the stories begin to emerge from the football stadium on Saturday night in East Java,

Indonesia, it is just more and more heartbreaking. First, survivors who say they are traumatized by what they went through, fleeing in panic when this

clouds of white smoke, which turned out to be tear gas from police officers, that's now under investigation, by the way, why the officers were

equipped with tear gas and why they used it on the fans inside the stadium in violation of FIFA guidelines. FIFA, of course, the governing body for

Global Football.

But also the panic of people, you know, all racing towards an exit and then getting so packed together that they couldn't even breathe. And in fact,

suffocation is one of the causes of death for the at least 125 people who were killed. And we have new information about how old they were. At least

32 of them were children. The youngest death, three years old, the oldest 17 years old, 24 boys and eight girls. There are also children who remain

hospitalized and officials are now saying that they will need trauma, healing, they'll need treatment. They're going to need a lot of assistance

moving forward because some of these kids may have lost their parents, or they may have lost a brother or sister. And in fact, at some of the

funerals today for a couple of teenagers who were killed, their siblings were talking about the horror that they witnessed.


ENDAH WAHYUNI, ELDER SISTER OF TWO BOYS WHO WERE KILLED (through translator): These two children were quiet, obedient, and did not get out

much. My family and I didn't think it would turn out like this.


RIPLEY: One witness describing the stadium looking like a warzone, saying there was so much screaming and explosions it felt surreal. The Indonesian

soccer club president says that his team will take full responsibility for this.


GILANG WIDYA PRAMANA, PRESIDENT, AREMA F.C. (through translator): I, as the president of Arema F.C., am ready to be fully responsible for the incident

on October 1st. We are ready to give compensation, anything, to the victims even though anything we do cannot bring back the victims.


RIPLEY: Meanwhile, the police in East Java, the police officers who were there, who were tasked with security, they are launching an internal

investigation into the 18 officers who were equipped with tear gas at the match and they're going over closed-circuit video. They say that fans who

committed acts of violence will be punished, but that the police officers are also going to be closely scrutinized here. Meanwhile, the funerals, the

memorials, the vigils and the investigations continue. Will Ripley CNN, Taipei.

SOARES: Of course, we'll stay on top of that story for you.

Well, Orlene has now made landfall in mainland Mexico as a Category I hurricane. It hit the area near the tourist town on Mazatlan along the

Pacific Coast. Orlene slowed down after reaching The Islas Marias, a group of four islands about 100 kilometers away from the mainland. Orlene is

expected to bring strong winds, heavy rains, and a dangerous storm surge to Southwest and Mexico until Monday night, or Tuesday morning.

And this follows, of course, several major sport -- storms, I should say, last month. U.S. President Joe Biden is about to visit Puerto Rico to see

the damage there two weeks after Hurricane Fiona hit the island.

And in Florida, the search for survivors continues after Hurricane Ian. The storm made landfall near Fort Myers on Wednesday. And the death toll now

stands at 76. Just in Florida alone. Well, officials say the losses are so great places like Sanibel and Fort Myers may never return to what they



MARCO RUBIO, U.S. SENATE REPUBLICAN: There'll be a lot of people who have no homes to return to now or in the near future. They'll be eligible for

individual assistance. We're still in the search and rescue process, although I think it now be -- starts becoming more about search and

recovery. And then, of course, begins the process of rebuilding to the extent possible, which will take years. Some of these Fort Myers Beach,

Sanibel, I mean they'll never look the same again.


SOARES: We're taking a short break, but we'll be right back. Do stay here.



SOARES: Welcome back. Well, as countries around the world face the devastating effects of climate change, one nation is particularly at risk,

and that's the Maldives. It is the lowest lying country in the world. Our Christina Macfarlane reports on how the Maldives natural surroundings make

an ideal place to learn about environmental protection.


CHRISTINA MACFARLANE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: In the past, coming to Maldives meant water sports and relaxing in front of some of the best views in the

world. But today, some resorts are adding a new activity on these islands, eco education. Zainab Shihab works at Patina Maldives on the Fari Islands,

a luxury resort with modern villas, statement art installations, and an impressive marina. For her, it's a crucial part of balance.



Maldives, and, of course, a lot of that is because we have this beautiful natural environment around us, and it is the livelihood for a lot of

people, something that we've - we talk about a lot. And it's about, you know, the environment and about climate change and how we, as a people,

need to adapt as well.


MACFARLANE: Down on Laamu Atoll, Adam Tholhath takes guests around the luxury Six Senses Resort almost daily to showcase its sustainability





MACFARLANE: From the herbs garden, where they grow their own spices and their own mushrooms.


THOLHATH: Being in the Maldives, almost everything is imported. Just focusing on two types of mushroom, we get to reduce our carbon footprint.


MACFARLANE: The chicken coop made of sustainable materials to the resort's earth lab, where guests can see zero waste practices in action. For the

Sustainability Manager, he wants to show guests steps they can take to better protect the environment even after they leave the archipelago.


MACFARLANE: The sole survival of the Maldives, I think, would be sustainable tourism. Everybody looking after the environment and sharing

that to the guests or tourists and making them be a part of the climate change adaptation.


MACFARLANE: It's the "seeing is believing" type of educational experience, allowing guests to witness and soak in all of its beauty and vulnerability.


SHIHAB: I think I'm a little bit biased when I say the Maldives is the best place to learn about it. But I also think -- because you're so connected to

it in the Maldives. It's also that, of course, the Maldives is the lowest lining country in the world.


MACFARLANE: Aishath Malha Ahmed, or Millie, works with mostly young guests at Footprints, the Kid's Club at Patina Maldives. For her, it's important

to help children learn to cherish the environment around them for their future generations.


AISHATH MALHA AHMED, KID'S CLUB AND RECREATION ATTENDANT, PATINA MALDIVES FARI ISLANDS: Maldives is like an endangered species. I like to say it like

that because we're about to go extinct. Save us, right? So whatever that we do in each island, we want to give that information to the guests who come

here, and we're given that also. And they're changing their minds on how they see the Maldives.



SOARES: Don't you want to just want to go on a holiday there?

Now, have you ever regretted posting something on social media? Well, Kim Kardashian set to pay out nearly $1.3 million after she touted a

cryptocurrency on her Instagram page. The reality TV star was fined for failing to disclose in the post that she was being paid a quarter of a

million dollars for promoting virtual currency if there are max. Kardashian is just one of a number of celebrities caught out for peering to promote

the currency as authorities move to regulate crypto markets. I'm sure QUEST MEANS BUSINESS will have more in the next 10 minutes or so.

And finally, fast, fashion took on a whole new meaning at the Paris Fashion Week. Have a look at this. Supermodel Bella Hadid wearing a one-of-a kind

really dress literally made on the spot. Hadid stood on stage at the Coperni Show for about nine minutes as three men, with paint canisters,

sprayed a self-hardening fabric onto her body. The result, a white off the shoulder Midland slip dress. Once the dress was complete, Hadid took a turn

down the runway and posed for the cameras showing off the custom-made outfit. Let's just say it -- yes, it's not a dress for me. But beautiful on

here nevertheless.

And that does it for us for tonight. Catch up with the interviews and analysis from the show online and go to my Instagram as well as my Twitter

feed. Thanks very much for your company. Have a wonderful evening. "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" with Richard Quest is next.