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Isa Soares Tonight
U.S. President Donald Trump Says Most Of Iran's Military Installations Have Been Knocked Out; Israel Strikes A Compound Of A Group Responsible For Choosing Iran's New Supreme Leader; German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Says He's On The Same Page With His American Counterpart When It Comes To Getting Rid Of The Regime In Tehran; Iran War Impacts Travel; Strikes Escalate Across Middle East; Trump: Most Of Iran's military Installations "Knocked Out"; Israel Targets Tehran, Beirut; French President Macron Says His Country Cannot Approve Military Actions By The U.S. And Israel In Iran. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired March 03, 2026 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News!
ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: Hello, and a very warm welcome, everyone, I'm Isa Soares, I'm coming to you from London. And we do begin
the hour in the Middle East.
The war in the Middle East, which is seemingly escalating by the hour. Here are the fast-moving developments on multiple fronts that we think is
important for you to be abreast of.
U.S. President Donald Trump says most of Iran's military installations have been knocked out, and most of the people the United States had in mind to
succeed the Iranian regime are dead.
An Israeli source tells CNN, Israel struck a compound of a group responsible for choosing Iran's new supreme leader. Iranian state media
claims the building was evacuated before the attack.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Lebanon is intensifying. Israel's Defense Minister says the IDF has been instructed to, quote, "advance and seize
additional strategic high ground" there, following a wave of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets.
And alongside President Trump at the White House earlier today, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he's on the same page, his words, with his
American counterpart when it comes to getting rid of the regime in Tehran.
Mr. Trump was asked whether Israel forced his hand and pulled the United States into this war with Iran. Here's the response.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack
first. They were going to attack if we didn't do it, they were going to attack first.
I felt strongly about that, and we have great negotiators, great people, people that do this very successfully, and have done it all their lives,
very successful.
And based on the way the negotiation was going, I think they were going to attack first. And I didn't want that to happen. So, if anything, I might
have forced Israel's hand.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Let's get more on all these strands. Our Oren Liebermann is in Tel Aviv, and our Kevin Liptak joins us from the White House. Let me go to you,
Kevin, first, of course, just picking up from what we heard from the President, he sat alongside Friedrich Merz of Germany.
We heard the President say today that I think -- his words, he had a feeling that Iran would attack first. He said when we played it there, they
were going to attack if we didn't do it.
Is there anything to suggest that this was the case, because they were due to meet in Vienna for the next round of diplomatic discussions? We've also
heard from the head of the IAEA today on CNN, saying that Iran was not days or weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. Just speak to some of the
discrepancy in the messaging we're seeing from this White House.
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, and in fact, what we have heard from American Intelligence officials is that the opposite is
true, that there, in fact, was no evidence that Iran was preparing a preemptive attack in fact, that is what administration officials told
congressional staffers over the weekend.
And so, I do think it just raises many more questions about what exactly was the imminent threat that the U.S. was facing here. And, you know, when
the President said that it was not Israel that was dragging him into this, that in fact, he thought it was the U.S. that was dragging Israel.
The President, even there, is contradicting what we heard from the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, yesterday, which was that the U.S. thought
that Israel was going to take a preemptive attack, and that, that would result in an outsized retaliation from Iran.
And still, I still think, you know, we are searching for what exactly was the imminent threat that has prompted the President to go to war. You know,
the other episodes that the President was citing as pretext for this were more than four decades old.
You know, he talked about the 1979 hostage taking in Iran, that 1983 bombing of the Marine Barracks in Beirut, suggesting that this was all of
an ideology that had to be taken out immediately. And so, I still think plenty of questions for the President about what exactly precipitated all
of this.
You know, just in the last hour, we've been hearing from senior administration officials describing how the nuclear negotiations with Iran
broke down, and they have suggested that there were a lot of attempts at deception by the Iranians, that in fact, they were prepared to enrich
uranium to near weapons grade levels.
[14:05:00]
That I think does not comport with what we heard from Rafael Grossi today, who said that the IAEA, quote, has no information, a structured, systematic
program to build a nuclear weapon was underway in Iran. So, I still think there are a lot of gaps in the information here, and as this conflict, I
think proceeds potentially for many weeks as the President says, those will be questions that the administration will continue having to answer for.
SOARES: Yes, stay with us, Kevin, let me bring in Oren Liebermann for us in Tel Aviv. And Lauren -- Oren, on this day for -- we are seeing the conflict
escalating. It seems regime change is still very much the focus from both - - for the U.S. and Israel.
And we are hearing, and you have more information on this -- on this strike, according to sources, I believe Israeli sources on the Iranian city
of Qom, and this compound, this committee, what more can you tell us about this?
OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF: And it's not just an Israeli source, we're hearing this from at this point, the Israeli military
spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin was just asked about this in a briefing a short time ago.
And he said they are still evaluating the results of this strike, but acknowledging that it was an Israeli strike on the Iranian holy city of
Qom. And the target of this was a gathering of what's called the Assembly of Experts.
This is 88 senior clerics who are intending and meeting and appointed to essentially pick and vote for the next Iranian supreme leader to set the
succession here of who would replace the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated in the opening wave of this strike early Saturday morning.
Israel's target was the council itself, to take them out as they were meeting to pick the next supreme leader for Iran. Now, what's unclear is if
Israel was successful in taking out that group of senior clerics, Iranian state media, which at least from what we're seeing, had initially said the
building had been evacuated before the strike itself.
Now says the Assembly of Experts was meeting virtually, and that the strike did not hit its intended target or rather scores of targets earlier today.
So, there are still questions, and it's not clear to us whether Israel was successful in killing this council of leaders.
So, that still remains the question here. But as you point out, Isa, this underscores that this very blatantly appears to have been about not only
regime change of the current regime, but this is targeting the success -- the succession mechanism, the ability for the regime to keep on functioning
and to -- and to pick the next leader here.
So, Israel has gone after the top of Iran's leadership, and is now, it seems, going after the ability of the -- of the Iranian regime to pick who
it is that's coming next. And that's on top of everything else Israel has targeted, as it says it has expanded its air superiority, which basically
means Israel's Air Force feels it can do whatever it wants and strike whatever targets it feels it needs in Iran.
SOARES: And just outside of Iran, if we look to Lebanon, because Prime Minister Netanyahu, Oren, has ordered, of course, the Israeli military --
we're talking about this, to advance and seize the territory in Lebanon. What is your sense of what is happening in Lebanon, inside Lebanon, and
what the strategy here is here for Israel -- for Israel?
LIEBERMANN: So, kind of work backwards here in terms of what --
SOARES: Yes --
LIEBERMANN: Happened most recently, there were red alerts warning of a large barrage of incoming from Lebanon, from Hezbollah a short time ago.
So, we wait to see the results of that.
But as that happens, as there is incoming, Israel has very clearly, very broadly expanded its offensive against what it says are Hezbollah targets,
not only in the capital of Beirut, but in southern Lebanon as well, issuing evacuation warnings to a growing list of villages in southern Lebanon and
effectively carrying out the campaign that Israel it seems, had prepared for and was just waiting to carry out, going after and trying to finish off
or at least to disarm Hezbollah.
In fact, the Israeli Military Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said a short time ago that Israel will not finish this campaign or conclude
the attacks on Lebanon, the attacks on Beirut until Hezbollah is disarmed.
SOARES: Oren Liebermann for us there in Tel Aviv, good to see you. Oren, and our Kevin Liptak in Washington, thank you to you both. Well, as Israel
and U.S. strikes continue against Iran, as Oren was saying there, and Iran responds with its own military action on American targets and on Gulf
allies in the Middle East.
The U.S. has closed embassies in Beirut, Saudi Arabia, as well as Kuwait, and warned its citizens to leave more than a dozen countries in the region.
Gulf states have intercepted hundreds of Iranian drones as well as missiles.
Among the countries, Kuwait says it's downed more than 175 Iranian ballistic missiles and almost 400 drones. The UAE reports it's intercepted
more than 165 Iranian missiles and 645 drones.
[14:10:00]
Bahrain and Qatar also report interceptions. Well, the UAE says it's prepared to fight a prolonged attack by Iran. A UAE spokesperson tells CNN,
its military has sufficient number of weapons to repel, as well as combat any aggression by that country. Our Becky Anderson with a deeper look at
that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Just walk us through what we've got here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Moving to this area, this is an attack suicide drone developed by the Iranians. It's called Shahed 136. It has a range of over
2,500 kilometers, and we've intercepted hundreds of these over the last two or three days.
ANDERSON: One of the things that as a resident here, one of the things that is scary, shocking is to hear these booms, these thuds, which are the
interceptions, obviously, of these missiles, all these drones that have been coming in.
Can you just describe how high up those interceptions are? Because at times people will feel that they're very close to them, of course, particularly
when it's the middle of the night.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, we repeatedly announced to the public that if they hear those sounds, they hear those bombs or popping sounds in the air, it's
basically a comforting signal, because it means the air defense system are working as supposed to.
And it's actually doing its job by intercepting or destroying those threats. So, if they hear those noises, they should be -- they should feel
comfortable.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, let's get more from our Nic Robertson, who is in Riyadh for us this hour. And Nic, as we've been stating there, showing our viewers
Gulf states very much now on the defense as the war in Iran kind of spreads its tentacles.
What is the calculation where you are in Saudi Arabia by the leadership of how to proceed? Because I know this is multi-layered and it is escalating.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: It is, and it's -- and it's to calculate the amount of escalation that the leadership here thinks
Iran is putting into play, and to try to calculate as well what that Iranian leadership looks like.
I think the calculation at the moment is that Iran is still making, in its context, rational, calculated decisions about going up an escalation
ladder. In this region, they're used to Iran sort of having threats against a couple of the countries in the Gulf and sort of trying to divide them,
and not having threats against others and trying to divide them.
What Iran has done now is attack all of these countries at the same time, but to differing degrees on what Saudi Arabia has experienced over the past
24 hours is a ratchet up of the way that it has been attacked. Oil refinery, attacked, intercepted.
But it did -- fragments did fall, did set fire to the refinery. You have five attempted strikes on a massive Saudi military airbase just outside of
the capital. And then, of course, the multiple drone impacts at the Saudi Embassy -- the U.S. Embassy here in the capital, Riyadh.
All of that paints a picture here, telling them that Iran is intentionally ratcheting up, going up this threat ladder very quickly. However, analysts
are also pointing out that at the moment, it's only drones that are being - - that we know about that are being fired against Saudi installations, not ballistic missiles.
If ballistic missiles, for example, were used against oil infrastructure, that would be a massive ratcheting up. So, that's the calculation here for
the Saudis. How much is Iran ratcheting up if you strike back? Do you really defeat the threat?
Do you really just escalate it and bring about more damage? So, as we understand here, it's a very difficult diplomatic position. The language is
very careful. The language says we'll protect sovereignty security territory citizens here in Saudi.
But we have the option to use -- we have the option if we are attacked to respond to aggression. So, it's where that calculation is. And of course,
this is happening behind closed doors. We're not getting a lot of insights.
But what I understood last night, not long after the U.S. Embassy was hit here, was those discussions absolutely active and ongoing and appear still
to be.
SOARES: Everything being very carefully calibrated. We have also heard, Nic, that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is vowing to basically
destroy American political centers in the region. What is -- what are you hearing in terms of what is being done? How is preparations underway for
any or further potential attacks here?
[14:15:00]
ROBERTSON: There are several things. There's one, you know, from a U.S. point of view, from the diplomatic missions throughout the region, there's
a view that they need to be able to extend whatever help they can to citizens trapped, U.S. citizens trapped in the region that want to leave.
Saudi Arabia is becoming one of those places where airports remain open. And if you can't fly out of Bahrain, if you can't fly out of Qatar, if you
can't fly out of Abu Dhabi, then possibly find a land route to Saudi Arabia where you can catch a flight out of Riyadh or Jeddah.
So, I think there's an effort diplomatically to try to find out how to help those citizens. But the message, the message in Saudi right now is shelter-
in-place particularly in the east of the country, don't go out, don't go to the U.S. consulate, don't move around, shelter-in-place. And that is
because the threats currently are big and they're active.
SOARES: Yes, very good advice, Nic, appreciate it. Nic Robertson for us this hour in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Well, the Iranian Red Crescent says
nearly 800 people have been killed in Iran since the start of the U.S.- Israeli war.
According to Iranian state media, at least, 168 children and 14 teachers at a girls' school in the southern part of the country were among the
casualties. Today, thousands turned out to grieve the young lives lost as mourners carried small coffins, as you can see there through the streets.
Footage from Iran's state media showed a -- what they called a grave site that was being prepared to bury the victims. U.S. Secretary of State Marco
Rubio told reporters Monday that the U.S. would not deliberately target a school.
Those are his words. He said an investigation is underway. Well, we don't know what is happening every minute inside Iran after supreme leader
Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in initial strikes, who will be next in line? That is the big question.
Israel has bombed the compound of a group responsible for choosing Iran's next leader. We heard that from our Oren Liebermann at the top of the show.
And as U.S. allies are targeted by Iran, will there be a coalition of Gulf nations ready to join and fight?
And where does that leave really European allies like Britain, France as well as Germany? We saw the German chancellor speaking to President Trump
hours earlier. Joining us now is Rob Macaire who served as British ambassador to Iran from 2018 to 2021, and is now a Non-resident Senior
Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Ambassador, good to have you back on the show. I did not expect to see a war so soon, but last time you and I spoke, we were talking about
potential, a possibility of a war.
Let me just get your reaction first of all, to this war as we've heard from the region, from the Gulf states, seems to be growing and spiraling with
now Gulf countries being involved too. Your thoughts on this day for.
ROB MACAIRE, NON-RESIDENT, SENIOR FELLOW, ATLANTIC COUNCIL: Thank you, Isa. Well, look, clearly, the escalation has to some extent taken quite a lot of
people by surprise. The speed with which the war has gone to a much wider range of targets from Iran, what that means in terms of the regional
states.
But it's kind of a rational thing for Iran to be doing if you think about it. I mean, their relationship with those Gulf neighbors is important to
them. It's been beneficial.
But when you put -- set it against regime survival, and those are the terms in which both the U.S. and Israel have really characterized this -- these
attacks, then clearly, they're going to prioritize regime survival.
And for them, creating economic pain in their neighboring countries in order to put pressure on the U.S. to ratchet down and to end the campaign
is a -- is a rational thing for them to do. So, I think that is -- that is one very clear thing we're seeing now.
Of course, we're also seeing, as you were reporting inside the country, a situation where future political control and succession is uncertain.
SOARES: Yes, and we heard, you know, the U.S. clearly trying to continue to decapitate kind of any thought -- sort of Iranian leadership. We heard from
the Israelis, from sources earlier today that Israel struck the Assembly of Experts compound in the holy city of Qom.
These will be voting on who the next leader would be, which then raises the question, ambassador, about succession. I want to play what President Trump
said earlier about this. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead. So, you know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now we have another
group, they may be dead also based on reports. So, I guess you have a third wave coming in.
Pretty soon, we're not going to know anybody.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Pretty soon, we're not going to know anyone. I mean, just your initial thoughts about who the U.S. will be negotiating, does this -- does
this show any sort of strategy here?
MACAIRE: Well, I think if President Trump says in that clip, you know, one of the key facts about this is, we don't know who is going to be alive at
the end of this when the bombing stops and when the dust settles. So, it's very hard to say who the U.S. could be talking to after this.
[14:20:00]
I think with the death of the supreme leader, the death of Khamenei; the range of options got a lot wider in terms of what might happen, the future
scenarios. Because of course, there is in theory, a scenario where the people of Iran rise up and overthrow the regime.
I don't think anyone feels that's very likely, however desirable it might be. There's a scenario where it breaks down into complete chaos as a result
of this military attack, which would be bad for certainly the people of Iran and for the neighbors.
But there is potentially the scenario that the regime either splits or a new leadership inside the regime comes forward after this, and says OK,
we're going to change course radically. We're going to do a deal with the West. We're going to allow more freedoms inside the country --
SOARES: You're talking about capitulation --
MACAIRE: We're going to take the step so --
SOARES: Ambassador, you think that's likely capitulation? Is that -- is that likely?
MACAIRE: I don't think it's the most likely scenario, but I think when you -- when you hear President Trump talking about a Venezuela scenario, I
think that's what he's talking about. And I think it's probably -- it's more likely that, that happens, then you get sort of the full-scale regime
change that people might dream of.
I think another likely scenario is just that the regime survives and just doubles down, and is completely decimated in a military sense. But at the
end of the bombing, it's still there.
SOARES: Let me get your thoughts as we wrap up here. I know it's your own time -- on what we heard from President Trump. He met today with Chancellor
Merz, and he said very clearly on numerous occasions that he was not happy with the U.K. He said the U.K. wasn't being cooperative. Let me just play
what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: By the way, I'm not happy with the U.K. either. That island that you read about, the lease -- here, OK, you made it for whatever reason, he made
a lease of the island, somebody came and took it away from him, and it's taken three-four days for us to work out where we can land there.
It would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So, we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill
that we're dealing with.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, just for our viewers around the world, Prime Minister Starmer has stated that the U.K. will not join the U.S. and Israel in any offensive
action, though Starmer has allowed to be fair, the U.S. to use British bases for defensive strikes, from my understanding.
So, just President Trump went on to say that, you know, this has ruined their relationship. What has this done to U.S.-U.K. relationships you
think, ambassador?
MACAIRE: Well, I think that if you look at the comments that President Trump has made about the U.K. during the course of his second term in
office, they have ranged from the very positive to the very negative, and I don't think that anything he says today is necessarily the final word on
the relationship.
I think that will continue to be a volatile situation, and I think that Prime Minister Starmer has done what you would expect him to do, which is
to tread a pretty cautious line, to be very aware of international law, to be aware of the political pressures on him, and to try to be both
supportive of allies and to be within the bounds of international law.
So, I think it would be overwriting it, to say that this is a fundamental breach in the U.K.-U.S. relationship.
SOARES: Ambassador, great to get your insight, thank you very much for making time to speak to us on the show. Thank you. We're going to take a
short break, and still to come right here, stuck in the Gulf. An update on the thousands of travelers trying to escape a region that is suddenly at
war. This is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:25:00]
SOARES: Let's catch you up on the very latest from the war in the Middle East we've been following here, breaking news on CNN. And it appears an
Israeli airstrike has taken out more of Iran's senior leaders. The strike came as a council of Iran's religious leaders were gathered to pick a
replacement for the slain Ayatollah Khamenei.
Iran claims the building was evacuated before the strike hit. Meanwhile, Donald Trump says he has no idea who will be the next leader of Iran
because U.S. and Israel have killed so many of the country's top political voices.
The U.S. President also expressed anger with Spain for not supporting the war with Iran. Mr. Trump said he will cut off all trade with Spain as a
result. And all of this comes as the conflict seems to be expanding with new Israeli attacks on Iranian sympathizers in Lebanon and continued
Iranian strikes targeting U.S. bases and embassies, by the way, as in other Gulf states.
Well, Donald Trump also took time today to discuss the thousands of westerners who are stuck in the Gulf region with few days, really, to get
out. He said the operation against Iran unfolded so quickly, there was no time to evacuate embassies or warn tourists or others actually to leave.
Air travel has been severely restricted since the war began, with busy international airports in the UAE and Qatar virtually shut down and flights
canceled all over the region. I want to bring in our resident expert, global travel Richard Quest joins us now.
Richard, good to see you. When we're talking about air travel at a standstill, give us a sense of how -- what numbers we're looking at here?
RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: You're talking about tens of thousands of people and hundreds, if not thousands of flights. And for one
simple reason, over the last 15 to 20 years, Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, they have become the global hubs for world aviation through the airlines,
Emirates, Flydubai, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
They bring the passengers in and they fly them out again. It is what's called a classic sixth freedom flight, and as a result, the hubs of Dubai
and Doha are increasingly, incredibly important in aviation. Now, if they are shut down very quickly, the ripple effects will spread.
Just think about it, from Europe --
(CLEARS THROAT)
QUEST: Excuse me, from Europe to Asia, Australasia, from the United States to Asia, right the way down, Dubai is the global hub. And as a result, when
it closed over the last couple of days, the effects were felt dramatically.
Now, we are starting to see some flights starting again. Flydubai is doing limited flights, Emirates is doing limited flights, certain corridors are
being established. I won't go through the list because it could change hourly, and it really does depend on the flight and the destination --
SOARES: Yes --
QUEST: But slowly, but surely, they are starting to open up. But it will be a long time before things are back to normal.
SOARES: Right. You mentioned safe corridors, I'm just seeing in the last what? Twenty minutes or so, we heard from the UAE, said that it opened,
Richard, a safe air corridor with its neighbors. Just for our viewers who may have been stranded, who may want to know, is it safe?
You know, the war continues on day four, tensions have been ratcheted up. It is expanding. What does this mean when you're talking about the UAE
opening safe air corridors?
QUEST: What you're talking about is bearing in mind the missiles flying around. The last thing you want, I mean, look, just remember, for example,
the Kuwaiti Air Force brought down three --
SOARES: Yes --
QUEST: U.S. fighters as friendly fire. Now, that was where they intended to hit a plane and got the wrong planes. Just think of the number of missiles
in the region flying around, from Iran and others. And you -- the last thing you want is a commercial aircraft anywhere near that.
So, what they're doing is working out which directions, which routes, which ways they can take aircraft from these hubs. And for instance, I'll give
you a good example. Saudi Arabia, for example, has not closed much of its airspace and most of its flights have been flying normally. That's because
of its location, it's got better air defenses in a sense, and there isn't the same risk, it's not under attack.
[14:30:26]
What we would expect to see, Isa, over the coming days, is more of these calibrated and calculated air routes opening up. Always remembering, one
stray missile will actually stop, will close the airspace all over again.
SOARES: Richard Quest. Good to see you, Richard. Thanks very much.
QUEST: Thank you.
SOARES: Richard will be back with Quest News Business, of course, in about an hour and a half or so. And still to come tonight, as strikes escalate
across the Middle East, how long can the Gulf states defend themselves? I'll break it down with a Middle East security expert. That is after the
break. You are watching CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: And welcome back to our breaking news coverage of the war in Iran. If you're just joining us, I want to bring you up to speed on what we know
so far. U.S. President Donald Trump says most of Iran's military installations have been knocked out, his words. And that new strikes today,
focused on killing Iranian leadership.
Israel says it launched simultaneous strikes in Tehran and in Beirut. The targets were Iranian military sites as well as the Iran-backed militant
group Hezbollah. All the while, Israeli troops are intensifying their push in Lebanon. And as for Iran, you ask, well, its military continues to
strike U.S. targets and U.S. allies in the Middle East. And here you can see in yellow all the countries around the Persian Gulf that have been hit.
The U.S. has closed its embassies in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and warned Americans to leave more than a dozen countries in the region.
Joining me now to discuss this is Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI. Good to have you on the show.
BURCU OZCELIK, SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW FOR MIDDLE EAST SECURITY, RUSI: Thank you.
SOARES: There is so much for us to talk about. I do want to start with the intensification of these strikes that we have seen from the U.S. and
Israel. The Central Command was saying something like 1,700 strikes we've seen. So, far, we're in day four.
[14:35:00]
Give us a sense, we're looking here at these strikes and where -- how spread out of where have they been focusing on, what they've been targeting
in these last four days, and how effective they've been.
OZCELIK: So, the joint, the coordinated attacks by the U.S. and Israel have focused on the western part of Iran, that stretch of land that borders
Iraq. And the reason for that is that's where the location of Iran, the majority of its missile launchers are, as well as radars. So, by that, I
mean the capability of the Iranian regime to attack westward. They also have air defense installations in that stretch of land, which means that
they would be able to protect against incoming missile strikes towards the inside of Iran.
SOARES: And I suppose at this juncture, it's quite hard to know how effective these strikes have been. Do we have a sense how effective the
U.S. strikes, Israeli air strikes have been on the missile's capabilities or so?
OZCELIK: We do in a sense. And that we have reporting by the U.S. and by Israeli sources as well, they're claiming these have been highly effective
to date. And when we look at the pace, the tempo of Iranian strikes, retaliatory strikes against the Gulf, the Persian Gulf, down below in the
GCC countries, we're seeing a slight slowing down in that pace, which could suggest that the Iranian stockpile of ballistic missiles are becoming
depleted.
SOARES: Right. Expand on that. Because now we're looking in the initial image, we were looking at U.S. Israeli strikes on Iran, just for our
viewers. Now, we're looking at Iranian strikes on the Gulf. And this is expanding horizontally, right? This is -- I've heard from multiple guests
now talking about how surprised they are that Iran has made a decision, the strategy to go after Gulf states. Before we talk about what you think about
the strategy, tell us why they've hit some countries and not others, because they've been using mostly drones. Is that right?
OZCELIK: That's right. They have been, as well as some missiles. But the focus has been on territories that host U.S. military assets, personnel and
interests. And the Iranian regime made that very clear in the lead up to the campaign or this war as well, that they would target American interests
across the region, which explains why they have hit countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE. Oman was a key facilitator during the talks, which
had been initially excluded from Iran's strike package, but then was also hit.
We have Jordan as well, which is a key U.S. and U.K. security ally in the region. And, of course, the most intense in Israel, as well as the UAE,
actually, was also hit very heavily.
SOARES: Yes. Are you surprised at all by this strategy from Iran to go after some of these Gulf states? I mean, does that isolate them further, or
was there a strategy here from the Iranian side?
OZCELIK: There is a strategy here. And I think what that is, is to create pressure and pain on the U.S., but as well as Gulf states. So, the message
to the Gulf is, you're hosting American military installations, so you have to bear the risk of this. And this is a moment of great existential crisis
for Iran. So, it seems as though their plan, the strategy, is to go all out in order to pressure the Gulf countries to then talk to President Trump, to
put pressure upon him to de-escalate, to draw down, to find a way towards a ceasefire.
SOARES: Right.
OZCELIK: But there is a gamble here.
SOARES: I was going to say, because that could backfire, right? Because I was speaking to a correspondent who was in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, where
leadership there is really weighing this moment. If this intensifies, how do they proceed? And that is the risk, is it not?
OZCELIK: Very much is the risk. There is a great deal of resentment, a sense of betrayal across the Gulf. This is the very scenario that they were
hoping to avoid and have been following the diplomatic track for a long time to encourage this not to happen. So, at this moment, I think the
Iranian strategy is very likely to backfire because it invites future military engagement by the Gulf states, potentially, as well as maybe other
countries in Europe as well.
SOARES: So, just for our viewers, we've looked at how the U.S. and Israel, where they've been striking inside Iran. We've also been looking at where
Iran has been retaliating, of course, across the Gulf, possible, region, mostly with drones, of course. And I want to focus now on U.S. bases
because you hinted at that there, why they're picking certain countries over others. I suppose, where are we seeing in terms of U.S. capabilities
and them getting ready for if this continues to escalate? Where are you seeing the biggest developments here? And the risks, of course.
OZCELIK: Along the Persian Gulf. They're in the military bases, particularly the naval fleet in Bahrain.
SOARES: Yes. All around this line here.
OZCELIK: That's right. That's right. These are where American assets are most vulnerable but also most protected. But Iranian attacks there are also
a distraction because U.S. forces have to focus on defending those assets as well as defending their allies in the Gulf.
[14:40:00]
So, there are multiple interests there as the U.S. and Israel try to support efforts to keep the Gulf as safe as possible in this moment of
great crisis, really.
SOARES: Indeed. Great to have you on the show. Thanks very much for coming.
OZCELIK: Thank you. Thank you.
SOARES: Really appreciate it.
OZCELIK: Thank you.
SOARES: And French President Emmanuel Macron says his country cannot approve military actions by the U.S. and Israel in Iran. In a flurry of
diplomacy, he held separate meetings with several regional leaders today to discuss the situation in the Middle East. And moments ago, President Macron
addressed the nation. I want you to have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
EMMANUEL MACRON, FRENCH PRESIDENT (through translator): The attacks launched by American and Israeli missile strikes against Iran have now
spread throughout the region and continue to have serious consequences for world peace and security.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, President Macron also said two of the first flights to evacuate French citizens from the region will land in Paris this evening.
We'll stay across this for you, of course.
And still to come tonight, the politics of war. The U.S. House and Senate will soon receive their first full briefing on Iran. As some lawmakers push
to curb President Trump's war powers. That is after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: Well, more now on the war in Iran, which is just a few short days spreading across the regions that we were just highlighting for you before
the break. Here's what we know right now. U.S. President Donald Trump is rejecting suggestions. Israel may have pulled the U.S. into war with
Tehran. He told reporters today the United States may have actually been the ones who forced, his words, Israel's hand. Mr. Trump says he doesn't
want Iranians to protest yet, saying it's very dangerous out there. Iran's Red Crescent says nearly 800 people have been killed since the start of the
war last weekend.
And just a short time ago, the U.S. closed its embassy in Beirut until further notice, and it follows a decision to shut down American embassies
in both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. And this just into CNN, a source telling CNN that the U.S. embassy in Dubai has been struck and is on fire. We're
hearing this in the last few moments. Of course, we'll bring you more details, of course, as we get it. But this is just coming into CNN right
now. The embassy has been struck and is on fire. We'll bring that as we get our report on the ground and more details on this breaking news.
[14:45:00]
Well, less than an hour from now, in the meantime, top U.S. diplomats and military officials will begin briefing the full Senate on Iran behind
closed doors, followed by the House. Senators have been taking the podium for hours now, as you can see, making their case for and against the war
launched with no congressional approval.\
Many Democrats and a few Republicans are pushing for a quick vote on a war powers resolution meant to limit President Trump's authority to conduct
military operations. Senator Richard Blumenthal says administration's, quote, "contradictory and conflicting" explanations for the war are deeply
concerning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-CT): The administration can't get its story straight. And that is absolutely mind boggling when it comes to this kind
of life and death attack on another country that could risk a forever war with huge costs and casualties.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, we indeed have heard differing rationales for this war, depending on the day and really on who's speaking. And some lawmakers say
that shifted messaging exactly why Congress must be involved. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson says there was no declaration of war because the
strikes are defensive in nature. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though, says Iran was bombed because it was going to retaliate against U.S. forces
after Israel attacked. And earlier, U.S. -- you heard, of course, President Trump saying he might have forced Israel's hand instead of the other way
around.
Let's get more from our Stephen Collinson trying to make sense of all the lines we're getting for us in Washington. And, Stephen, let me just pick up
with kind of the mixed messages that we're trying to trying to read the tea leaves, because questions are now being asked about why the U.S. decided to
take action against Iran when it did. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the president decided to launch the attacks on Iran because the
U.S. believed, I think he said, Israel was poised to take unilateral action, right?
And then President Trump, I understand, I heard them, he was speaking with SCIUTTO: - alongside Chancellor Merz today, basically disputing this,
saying that he might have forced Israel's hand. And he said, I mean, quote him here. "They were going to attack if we didn't do it." But I do want to
play what Rafael Grossi of the IAEA had to say on this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAFAEL GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: We never had information indicating that there was a structured, systematic
program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon. So, we have to balance the two things. Yes, many reasons for concern. But there wasn't to be a
bomb tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: So, Stephen, I mean, how are these kind of shifting narratives within the administration itself and senior leadership within the
administration being received where you are?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Well, I think it's adding to a great deal of confusion. And I think the reason this is important and
that it looks like they're making this up as they go along is because it gets to the real potential motives of why this is taking place. Every
government official, as you say, has come up almost with a different rationale.
Pete Hegseth was talking about the killings of Americans in Iraq during the occupation by Iran backed militias. The president previously was talking
about regime change. Then he stopped. Then he started talking about nuclear weapons, although he said last year he'd eradicated or obliterated Iran's
nuclear program. Then you have what Rubio said. So, this is all very confusing.
I think a lot of people believe that the real reason that Iran was attacked was because President Trump's credibility was on the line after he made
multiple threats and said he would come to the aid of Iranian protesters. The problem with that is it's not a legal or constitutional rationale that
works before Congress. The administration has to argue that the United States was under imminent threat and that he took emergency action, which
he could then go to Congress and get endorsed later on.
So, this debate about what the war is actually about is politically damaging. It's damaging, I think, on President Trump's right flank in his
MAGA movement. That seems to be a little bit split increasingly over the war. And while at this point, I don't think there was a congressional
majority to vote against the president on this war, it's very troubling.
And, you know, we saw during the Iraq and Afghan wars when there is confusion and a lack of clarity on the reason for waging the wars, that
tends to bleed into strategy.
SOARES: Yes. And a lack of clarity, a lack of strategy. And while I have you here, we -- just before we came on, we came to you, Stephen, we were
breaking news, of course. We were saying that a source -- now we've got beyond the source, a U.S. consulate in Dubai is on fire after being struck
late -- this was on Tuesday night by suspected Iranian drone. And this is according, again, to a source in the region.
[14:50:00]
This follows, of course, we've seen shutdowns in the American embassies in both in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, both shut down. I mean, the pressure is
intensifying, of course, on President Trump as Iran continues to retaliate.
COLLINSON: Yes. And I think this obviously would be a very troubling development politically for the administration. And it comes at a time
when, you know, there's a lot of tension in the region. It's a time when markets are tumbling. The president seems to be surprised that the Iranians
went after Gulf states when that seems like it was an obvious potential response to him attacking Iran. And he said today that the whole thing
happened too fast to get Americans out of there. Well, he was the person that ordered these strikes. So, if anyone should have known about it in
advance, it was him.
So, I think if this incident in Dubai turns out to be very serious, it's going to increasingly add up to the pressure on the president. In the past,
we've seen when pressure builds, he tends to look for an off ramp. And it will be interesting to see if the United States starts to talk about, well,
we've destroyed everything we can destroy in Iran. And now, it's time to move on to the next stage. Perhaps the Iranians coming out into the streets
and the president looks for a way out of this.
But I think the clock, the political clock is ticking for the president here, even though they were saying yesterday, well, this could go on for
weeks or even a month or even longer.
SOARES: Right. Let me stay with the breaking news. Stay with us, Stephen. If you're just joining me, bringing up today on the breaking news that we
received in the last few minutes, a source tells CNN the U.S. embassy in Dubai has been struck, as you can see from this video here, and is on fire.
This is just a moment ago. This is in Dubai.
We have seen, of course, American embassies also in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was shut down. But this coming into CNN, source telling CNN, the U.S.
consulate in Dubai has been hit by a suspected Iranian drone. We can see a plume of smoke there, black smoke. And we understand it's on fire. We're
getting more information, I think.
Our Jennifer Hansler is with us. Jen, what more are you hearing on this?
JENNIFER HANSLER, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT REPORTER: Well, we're not hearing much of anything yet. So, we've asked the State Department if they can
confirm anything on this suspected Iranian strike on the consulate in Dubai. But, of course, as you're saying, this is the latest in a series of
suspected Iranian attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities.
Last night, we saw two suspected Iranian drones hit the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. Two more hit at or near the embassy. Sources told me there were no
injuries initially reported with that strike. We don't know yet if there were any injuries with this latest strike on the consulate in Dubai.
Earlier this week, the embassy in Kuwait was also hit. So, this is coming amidst this massive, massive retaliation in the region.
Of course, this also comes, Isa, as the State Department last night, ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and their family members
from six countries in the region. That included the UAE, it includes Kuwait, it includes Qatar, Jordan, Iraq as well. And so, they are calling
on all non-emergency personnel to leave the countries. They've also temporarily closed three embassies for now because of these safety
concerns. So, there are still small footprints of diplomats in all of these countries in which they have ordered the departure.
But this is a very fast-moving situation here. This is, you know, a very, very risky, risky time to be an American in this region. The State
Department just announced that they are working to facilitate commercial flights and military flights for American citizens who have been stranded
there in the region, Isa. And we are going to continue to keep following this story.
SOARES: If you're just joining us -- Jen, stay with us, bring our viewers up to date. We are now hearing from a source, a U.S. consulate in Dubai. As
you've seen, that plume of smoke has been hit by a suspected Iranian drone. We've been told it's on fire. We can certainly see on this footage here a
plume of black smoke. It is 23 -- what, 53, almost 54, almost midnight in Dubai.
Can I take a step back, Jen? Do we know -- I know you were saying some people have left from these consulates. Do we know if this consulate was
still active in Dubai? How many people were inside? Do we have any of that, a sense of that? I know some of the other embassies have been closed. What
do we know about this one in particular, just to ascertain how many people could have potentially been inside?
HANSLER: We don't have a sense right now, Isa, of how many people are inside. The hope, of course, would be that there were no one there because
it is so late in the evening there. The United Arab Emirates had been put on ordered departure yesterday, which means they were calling on only the
essential small staff to stay. And a number of these posts, they've also had people shelter in place, work from home. So, they may not have actually
been in this facility. That would be the hope in this case, so that there are no injuries. We don't know yet if there was anyone there. We are
working to get answers here.
[14:55:00]
But this is, of course, what the State Department tries to prevent. They try to keep their diplomats safe. And sometimes that calls on them to have
them leave the country. There have, of course, been questions about why these ordered departures weren't ordered sooner, ahead of that initial U.S.
and Israeli strike that happened over the weekend, which precipitated all of these Iranian retaliatory attacks.
So, there are questions here about why these warnings weren't issued sooner, both for the diplomats on the ground as well as the U.S. citizens
who are there. But we have started to see, days later, the State Department moving towards helping their diplomats leave the country as well as U.S.
citizens. But of course, a lot that's uncertain.
SOARES: Absolutely. And I'm just looking at the Dubai media office. They've put out a tweet. We have a translation. I'm just going to read it out as we
look at these images. The competent authorities in Dubai succeeded in extinguishing a limited fire in the vicinity of the U.S. consulate in
Dubai, resulting from a drone targeting operation, and the incident did not result in any injuries.
So, for viewers joining us now, no injuries, thankfully. The U.S. consulate in Dubai being hit in the last few moments by a suspected Iranian drone,
and it is on fire.
Our thanks to everyone in this hour of breaking news. We'll have much more on this breaking news story. Max Foster is up next. I shall see you
tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:00:00]
END
