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Isa Soares Tonight
Sources Say The U.S. Has Rescued One Of The Crew From An American Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iran; Exclusive CNN Reporting Finds That Roughly Half Of Iran's Missile Launchers Are Still Intact; Pope Leo Celebrates First Easter; CNN Speaks To Families Displaced In Lebanon; Sources: U.S. Rescues One Of Two Downed Fighter Jet Crew In Iran; Ukraine Targets Russian Oil Refineries And Export Hubs; Day Three Of History-Making Mission To Orbit The Moon. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired April 03, 2026 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
PAULA NEWTON, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: Hello, and a very warm welcome, I'm Paula Newton in for Isa Soares. Tonight, we begin with breaking news.
Sources say the U.S. has rescued one of the crew from an American fighter jet shot down over Iran.
A search and rescue mission goes on for a second crew member, U.S. sources confirmed earlier reports from Iranian state media, which released these
photos, you see them there of what appears to be the downed jet.
Iran is said to be offering a reward for capturing what it describes as the enemy pilots. A source tells CNN, Tehran is still very much poised to wreak
havoc throughout the entire region. That's despite claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran's military has been obliterated.
Now, exclusive CNN reporting finds that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers are still intact, along with thousands of one-way attack drones.
That's according to a recent U.S. Intelligence assessment. Now, in a social media post, President Trump suggested today that the U.S. could, in his
words, easily reopen the Strait of Hormuz with a little more time.
The U.N. Security Council, meantime, plans to vote soon on a resolution that would allow countries to use, in its words, all defensive means
necessary to secure safe passage through that Strait. Marine tracking data shows a French-owned container ship did in fact cross the waterway on
Thursday.
It's believed to be the first western-flagged vessel to do so since this war began. And we want to get straight to our coverage now. Jeremy Diamond
is in Tel Aviv, but we do begin with Kevin Liptak, who joins us from the White House.
And Kevin, what more are you learning? I mean, this is an incredibly significant development, and we haven't heard that much directly either
from the White House or the Pentagon.
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: No, we've heard nothing, in fact, from the White House, except that the President had been briefed on
the situation. Obviously, I think this speaks to the sensitivity of what is occurring.
You know, the White House doesn't necessarily want to put out any information before it is finalized. And this, of course, is an ongoing
process. We do know that one of the airmen who was in that F-15 that was shot down has been rescued.
The fate of the other is unknown. These are planes that have a two-person crew. These are situations that pilots and the other airmen who crew these
planes, rehearse for and plan for. They have, you know, training mechanisms in place that would go into a place, including on how to, for example,
evade capture from people on the ground.
And so, a very -- a very tense day so far here at the White House. And it does, I think, create some pretty significant military and diplomatic
complications to this war. This is the first known instance of a fighter jet going down inside Iran since the war began now almost four weeks ago.
And I think, you know, for the President poses some challenges to his claims that the military objectives have been fulfilled. It does indicate
that Iran at this point does have some capabilities to shoot down this kind of aircraft, even though the President and the Defense Secretary, Pete
Hegseth, have been saying really, for the last several weeks that the U.S. has air superiority over Iran, that it has completely degraded its missile
and drone capabilities.
And I think that will pose some questions for the President about where exactly this war stands militarily. You know, we just heard from Pete
Hegseth earlier this week that the U.S. was, in fact, flying B-52 bombers over Iran, which are much more cumbersome aircraft than the F-15s.
And so, it raises questions about the safety of those, now that we know that Iran retains some of these abilities to shoot down American jets. And
we did just report even before we knew about this downing, about an American Intelligence assessment that shows Iran's capabilities still in
some ways intact.
You know, half of its missile launchers still intact, its one-way drone stockpile still remains relatively well stocked with thousands in place.
[14:05:00]
And its coastal defense cruise missiles, which are what is threatening the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, still have a large percentage still able to
be fired.
And so, as the President talks about winding this war down in 2 to 3 weeks, which was the timeline he laid out in that address to the nation on
Wednesday evening, it raises, I think, a lot of questions about whether that timeline is realistic in terms of degrading Iran's missile
capabilities, and whether that timeline remains feasible and doable. And now that this incident has occurred in Iran today, Paula.
NEWTON: Yes, and we'll continue to watch there, Kevin, to see if we do learn any more from the White House. Jeremy, do you now -- as Kevin was
just outlining there, our reporting is significant, right? Pointing out that, look, Iran maintains a lot of capability.
I want to know from where you sit, I know how carefully you, over the last month have been watching Israeli military and government reports on this. I
mean, what are you learning about Iran's capacity at this point in time?
And the fact that in the last -- just in the last 24 hours, so many Israelis hunkering down in bunkers because Iran continues -- Iran and
Hezbollah continue to fire projectiles into Israel.
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Look, there's no question that Iran still retains significant military capabilities. And as Kevin points
out, it does undermine the narrative that President Trump has been talking about, including in his address to the nation earlier this week, that Iran
has essentially been militarily defeated.
And that, you know, we're very close to a kind of a mission accomplished moment for the President and the United States. You know, Israeli officials
have told us in recent weeks that as much as 80 percent of Iran's air defense capabilities have been destroyed, they did not say 100 percent.
And so, it is clear that Iran still does retain some of that capacity. And they certainly have been able to demonstrate that today with the downing of
this F-15 fighter jet, which is not an easy plane to take down, and certainly much more difficult to take down than the bombers that are now
flying over Iran as well.
You know, the assessment from the U.S. Intelligence community that 50 percent of Iran's missile launchers are still intact. You know, the
distinction between that and the figure that we've had previously from Israeli officials, which is about 70 percent destroyed or disabled, the
difference is that there are some of these launchers that are still intact, but are buried underneath the rubble of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
Meaning, they can't immediately be retrieved and put into service in order to be able to fire at Israel or at U.S. military bases or gulf countries in
that region. So, you know, it is a question of timing of when Iran will be able to retrieve those capabilities.
But it certainly does broadly undermine the narrative from the United States that Iran has almost no capabilities whatsoever. But the real story
of this war, of course, is one of asymmetric warfare, meaning that even if Iran doesn't have most of its military capabilities, it still retains
enough capabilities to be able to wreak havoc on the global economy.
To keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, to down one of hundreds of fighter jets that have carried out sorties over the skies of Iran. And just that
amount of capability is enough for Iran to continue to kind of put a dent and reject the United States picture of victory.
And basically, to keep the United States and Israel engaged in this war, even as President Trump, you know, seemed to be seeking last week a
diplomatic off-ramp to this conflict.
Iran is basically making clear that it's not going to negotiate from a position of weakness, but it's going to continue to exact costs on the
United States and its allies in order to get to a ceasefire agreement that isn't just going to see the U.S. and Israel strike again in several months'
time.
But that's actually going to lead to a kind of longer-term understanding between these countries. And it seems that based off of what Iran has been
able to do today by downing this fighter jet, that we are still very far away from that moment.
NEWTON: Indeed, and we do want to remind our viewers that Israel, in fact, has postponed planned strikes right now in Iran, as they understand that
U.S. continues that search and rescue operation for the missing crew member.
Jeremy Diamond, thanks to you and Kevin Liptak from the White House. Thank you both. I want to bring in now retired U.S. Lieutenant General Mark
Schwartz for more on this breaking news, as we continue to ask about the fate of that second crew member.
Thank you for being with us. And I do want to lean on your experience, given your command of special forces, what is happening right now in terms
of trying to keep that crew member alive?
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That crew member remains unaccounted for? And can you just kind of give us some insight into how difficult this is? And I do want to bring up, again,
for viewers that image that CNN has, that was released by Iranian media of the damaged ejection seat. CNN analysis does indicate that it is likely
from that CF-15.
MARK SCHWARTZ, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Paula, good to be with you. So, right now, what's happening back at Central Command headquarters, probably a
forward search and rescue headquarters where you saw that HC-130 in those Pavlov(ph) helicopters launched from.
They are continuing the planning process. There's a high potential that they have communication with the other isolated crew member, whether that's
the weapons service officer or the systems officer -- excuse me or the pilot.
You know, darkness is the friend of the isolated person and frankly, the friend of the U.S. forces trying to recover this individual right now. So,
planning is ongoing right now if they do have communications with them, they're setting up, you know, an opportunity to retrieve him and recover
him back into U.S. custody, if you will.
And if they don't have communications with them, they're using every intelligence resource that they have available to include, you know,
satellite imagery overhead, probably unmanned, a collection capability to assist in locating him.
And then lastly, what I would say is, there are -- they've certainly started the very quick debrief of the pilot or weapon systems officer that
they have successfully recovered to, you know, understand. Hey, did you see two shoots?
You know, when you were ejected and you have an idea in proximity, you know, from a cardinal direction of where that other parachute landed
relative to where you were at. So, all that information is being brought together to, again, facilitate a successful recovery.
NEWTON: Well, that certainly gives us some great insight. And against my -- apparently zero knowledge of what happens. You actually say that night
time, the fact that it's nightfall now in Iran might be a good thing.
I do want to ask you, and it is a difficult thing for service members who have -- you know, they're wondering about their family members right now,
their survival training here, right? They are trained for being in enemy territory. What does that involve?
SCHWARTZ: It is exceptional training. So, every crew member, regardless of military service and special operations forces, go through what's called
SERE level C, which is the highest level of training. And that's survival innovation.
The most important part of, you know, where we're at right now with this isolated crew member. And then, there's also resistance and escape. So, in
the event you become captured by enemy forces, they teach you how, you know, to deal with that captivity.
And also, ways in which you could potentially escape captivity. But as part of all that training, a lot of technical training in terms of how to
properly communicate and then the actions that you should be taking, in the event, you know, you -- in this case, you know, you had to eject and now
you're in enemy territory.
Typically, what they train you for is obviously find a place with good cover and concealment initially.
So, move away from, you know, your parachute and you know, the potential site where -- incident site where you came down and try to put as much
distance between that and you know, where you're going to be able to successfully hold up until such time that you can establish communication.
And ideally, they can facilitate the recovery.
NEWTON: I do want to go back to CNN's reporting here, though. Many of us wonder if they have air superiority. This was a fighter jet. Our
intelligence -- our exclusive reporting tells us that, again, Iran retains significant capability.
When you put all of that together, can you -- you know, let us in on what you think may have happened here in terms of how this jet was shot down?
SCHWARTZ: But from the wreckage -- and I'm no, you know, wreckage expert, but it's hard to tell what brought the aircraft down. You know, obviously
when it hit, it -- you know, broke up in many pieces.
You know, for it could have been a -- it could have been anything from a surface-to-air missile fired by Iran, or it could have potentially been,
you know, some type of mechanical malfunction that caused the aircraft to go down.
But remember, air superiority does not mean that there is no threat. That just means that we have the ability to predominantly fly over a mitigated
risk over enemy territory. But superiority does not mean that there is no threat out there.
And as has been reported, you know, Iran still retains, both air defense capabilities, certainly ballistic missile and drone capability. And we see
that playing out every day since this conflict started.
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NEWTON: OK, General, we'll leave it there for now, we'll continue to touch base with you as we continue to follow this breaking story, really
appreciate your insights. Now, we go to Poland's deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
He was among the European leaders that took part in a virtual meeting Thursday to discuss ways to open that all important Strait of Hormuz.
Really glad to have you on board here as we continue to parse the breaking news.
I mean, look, none of this really points to any kind of de-escalation at the moment, given the health of the global economy may hinge on the opening
of the Strait of Hormuz, did you and your counterparts come to any concrete plan to open the Strait?
I know that there is some type of a vote that will go on in the next few days at the U.N., but what does that mean? Because it underscores defensive
capability. What does that mean?
RADOSLAW SIKORSKI, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER & FOREIGN MINISTER, POLAND: I was grateful to the British for convening the meeting, and we started with
briefings from the ministers of the friendly gulf states about the state of affairs.
And it's very concerning indeed. We discussed the ways of creating incentives, both diplomatic and economic, including sanctions that could be
deployed to encourage Iran to stop blocking the traffic.
NEWTON: I am wondering, though, would any of that involve a more offensive posture? I mean, this can't go on for months, many people have laid out in
blunt terms that barely any economy in the world can afford for this to go on for months.
SIKORSKI: From the information gathered, it appears that some ships are getting through. Of course, much less than before the war between a sixth
and a fifth of the normal volume. And as President Trump said that there are channels of communication.
We hope that they will be successful and that, you know, that the U.S. and Iran come to some arrangement.
NEWTON: So, you would rule out any kind of offensive posture that there'd have to be some kind of a deal or some kind of ceasefire in place before
this alliance of nations would do anything in the Strait.
SIKORSKI: Well, think back to gulf war one and gulf war two, to gather sufficient forces in the theater, it takes months. It took many weeks for
the United States to deploy its carriers and other capabilities. And as I think you've mentioned, we need solutions much faster than that.
NEWTON: Yes, a sobering point that you make in terms of what it would take to actually secure the Strait. I do want to go to the former Iranian
Foreign Minister who penned a piece in foreign affairs, asserting that Iran is winning, his opinion, but that a diplomatic deal is possible.
And as many have indicated, that's what's needed right now. And I quote him, "Tehran then should use its upper hand" -- his words, "not to keep
fighting, but to declare victory and make a deal that both ends this conflict and prevents the next one.
It should offer to place limits on its nuclear program and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to all sanctions." I am wondering
for you, does that seem acceptable at this point in time, given that CNN's reporting is that after all of these weeks, Iran still retains significant
military capability?
SIKORSKI: Well, the U.S. is a global power and the strongest army in the world. But of course, it is not the strongest at every point on the globe,
and logistics matter. And the fact that Iran has a coastline of several hundred kilometers.
There are these islands you can land a force there, but it would have to be, resupplied, which is difficult. We -- and that gives Iran some
leverage. I would be very careful of statements by Iranian officials because as the west, we have decades of, negotiating with Iran and nothing
is ever as it appears.
NEWTON: And I am wondering if you can offer some nuance to this, then, given the capability that Iran still has here, do you think that if the
nuclear program were off the table, that, that would be something that would be acceptable at this point in time?
SIKORSKI: Well, the nuclear program was destroyed before, if you remember, President Trump said that it was eviscerated by last year's 12-day war. And
I suspect that Iran already knows that it is incapable of enriching enough uranium to construct a bomb.
[14:20:00]
Because every such effort would be attacked, and as American strikes proved last year, the attacks are quite successful. So, perhaps, there is a sort
of, room for an understanding that Iran's 45-year quest to acquire nuclear capabilities in order to destroy Israel, that, that effort is unachievable.
The success in that effort is unachievable.
NEWTON: Mr. Sikorsky, we move to the conflict that is obviously top of mind for you, and that is Ukraine. How much do you believe this conflict with
Iran is actually hurt the effort in Ukraine? And I note as well, obviously, the President's comments about pulling out of NATO.
Do you think that is a credible threat from the President? Do you -- are you expecting that? Are you planning for that in the coming months?
SIKORSKI: Well, Poland is a neighbor of both Russia and Ukraine, that one of our neighbors, Russia invaded without provocation another of our
neighbors. And the -- Ukraine is resisting not only heroically, but very effectively.
And yes, Russia and Iran are allies. And this is not just theoretical, as you know, Russia is supplying -- targeting data to Iran. And there is a
type of weapon which is common to both theaters and both wars. Russia was forced to import Shahed drones from Iran at the beginning of the war.
It has since built factories in Russia and makes these machines of death under Iranian license. And it's exactly the same drones that are hitting
gulf states and trying to hit Israel. So, I hope the U.S. administration refocuses on the need to pressure Russia into making concessions.
Because Putin is clearly a winner in this conflict, because the price of oil has gone up, and oil and gas is the great majority of potential Russian
exports. But you should also notice that Ukraine has carried out a very successful strikes -- strike on the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the
Baltic Sea near St. Petersburg.
And theoretical price of oil is one thing, and delivering the oil to the market is another. And here, the Russians are in difficulty.
NEWTON: They certainly are, and we will, in fact, explore that issue in the next few minutes. Mr. Sikorski, I will leave it there, but I thank you for
your insights.
SIKORSKI: Thank you.
NEWTON: Now, Catholics around the world are taking part in today's Good Friday services with Pope Leo XIV leading his first holy week since his
election. He plans to carry the large wooden cross for the entire way of the cross service.
The last pontiff to do so was Pope John Paul II, and that was decades ago. That is set to get underway in less than an hour, with the pope leading the
procession from the Colosseum to the Palatine Hill.
Earlier, the pope presided over a service in St. Peter's Basilica and held a call with Israel's President Isaac Herzog, about renewing diplomacy to
end the war with Iran. CNN's Christopher Lamb joins us from Rome.
And in those last two things that we just indicated there, Christopher, the fact that he has decided himself to hold this cross, but also
simultaneously getting involved in world events and imploring people to get back to the negotiating table, this is a new pope who is making his mark.
CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right, Paula, we're seeing Leo step up his political efforts in recent days. You
mentioned the call with Israel's President, Herzog, where the Vatican say Leo urged him or Israel to find an end to the war in Iran.
And, of course, tonight in Rome, the Colosseum behind me, thousands of people are gathering to take part in This Way of the Cross celebration. I
can see to my left, there's a crowd several rows deep.
There's obviously a lot of excitement because this is Leo's first Easter holy week and Easter since his election as pope last year. He's going to be
leading This Way of the Cross service that recalls Christ's suffering and death.
And he will, as you say, be carrying the cross the entirety of the procession which goes around the Colosseum and inside too. And that, I
think, speaks to Leo's determination to really put his stamp on these holy week and Easter services, but also the fact that this pope is relatively
youthful compared to his predecessors.
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He's just 70, which is young for a pope, and he's also in very good physical shape. He plays tennis, he takes exercise. So, there is a great
sense of anticipation building here as people prepare for that service. Paula.
NEWTON: Yes, Christopher, and we'll continue to watch. We're watching extraordinary pictures already, and we can see some excitement as well
behind you. So, we'll continue to have more coverage from there within the next few hours.
Christopher Lamb for us in Rome, appreciate it. Still to come for us tonight, the latest from Lebanon, where more than a million people have
been displaced. We'll hear their very personal stories coming up.
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NEWTON: More than a million people have been displaced in Lebanon as Israel expands its incursion in the southern part of that country. Humanitarian
conditions are worsening by the day. Three U.N. peacekeepers were injured in an explosion earlier on Friday after two were killed earlier this week.
Now, aid groups in Beirut have also reported critical shortages of clean water and medications. Nada Bashir has more now from Beirut.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Displaced by war and left searching desperately for safety. This is the reality for so many families
in Lebanon.
(On camera): This is one of many camps that have been set up here in Beirut to house those displaced by the war. And we're actually in quite an upscale
neighborhood, but this open space has been transformed and filled with tents to house families that have nowhere else to go.
And above us, we can still hear the drone buzzing, a constant reminder that this war is far from over. And for many families here, there is no
certainty if they'll ever be able to return home.
(Voice-over): Susan and her family of seven fled their home in the southern suburbs of Beirut after a night of intense Israeli airstrikes. For over a
month now, they have been sheltering out on the street in these small tents, joining the more than 1 million people now displaced across Lebanon.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): Our home was destroyed, the glass was broken, the balcony was blown off. The first strike hit during the
night and we fled straight away. My daughter was shaking.
She had a panic attack just from the sound. My youngest daughter, she's seven years old, was also afraid. Where is the humanity? Where is the
humanity?
BASHIR: Eighty-five-year-old Abu Mohamed was also forced to flee his home in Daraiya. Over his lifetime, he has seen conflict tighten its grip on the
country time and time again.
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ABU MOHAMED, DISPLACED IN LEBANON (through translator): Our situation is very bleak. We left even without our clothes. We couldn't bring anything
with us. They told us to shelter here, and we've been here ever since, as you can see.
BASHIR (voice-over): But it's not just shelter that people are in need of. Medical and psychological support centers have become a lifeline for many.
At this makeshift clinic in Beirut, NGO Doctors Without Borders is working to reach displaced patients struggling to access medical care.
DR. CALINE REHAYEM, MEDICAL COORDINATOR, DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS: We are mobilizing our teams to respond to primary health care needs including the
general medical consultations, the care for non-communicable diseases or chronic conditions, as well as sexual and reproductive health care, and
very importantly mental health and psychosocial support.
BASHIR (voice-over): Elsewhere in Beirut, volunteer medics are visiting shelters to provide weekly checkups. At this elementary school, more than
250 displaced people are currently being housed. Each classroom now a makeshift shelter. But it's not just physical health that is being attended
to here.
SAMER EL SAFAH, MAKHZOUMI FOUNDATION: We give a lot of care and attention to children and especially during war, they are the most affected. So, what
we do is we do recreational activities on a daily basis for them. Those two three hours that we do the recreational activities with them are the time
that they we get them out of what they are passing through the day hearing bombs voices. Their parents are on edge.
BASHIR (voice-over): 13-year-old Fatima and her family are also among the displaced. They fled from the south narrowly escaping an overnight Israeli
military attack.
FATIMA RIDA, DISPLACED IN LEBANON (through translator): At night, they bombed the building behind us. Of course, we were very scared we were
sleeping. We thought that was it, that we would be martyred.
BASHIR (voice-over): While shelters like this provide some respite for these families, there are no guarantees of safety as the expanding Israeli
military assault continues to loom large over Lebanon.
Nada Bashir, CNN in Beirut.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
NEWTON: Still to come for us tonight, an American fighter jet downed over Iran for the first time in this conflict. We'll have the latest on the crew
members who are on board.
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[14:35:34]
NEWTON: And recapping our top story, sources say the U.S. has rescued one of the crew members from an American fighter jet down over Iran. The
rescued crew member is reportedly alive. It's unclear though what the status of the second crew member is. Video geolocated by CNN shows multiple
low-flying aircraft over Iran and what could be a search and rescue effort. The incident marks the first time a U.S. aircraft has been shot down over
Iran during the conflict. It follows repeated claims from President Trump the war is essentially won and that the U.S. has air superiority.
CNN's Matthew Chance has been following all of this for us from the region in Doha, Qatar. And Matthew, I'd imagine that given what went on today, and
CNN is reporting that Iran maintains significant military capacity here, it must be, you know, really sobering for where you are right now because
obviously Iran's capability means that they are still in the crosshairs.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's -- Paula, it's never really rung true this idea that Iran's military has been
degraded to the extent that it can barely be used. Certainly not in this region because every day we've been seeing attacks not just here in Qatar
but in Saudi Arabia, in Kuwait, in the United Arab Emirates, in Bahrain, elsewhere by Iranian drones and missiles that have really been pounding all
of these Gulf Arab states since this war began at the end of -- at the end of February. And this is another example of that.
You know, for weeks now, President Trump, other members of the Trump administration have been saying that they enjoy air superiority over the
skies of the Islamic Republic. Well, that was clearly an overstatement. Yes, it's true that air defense systems have been pounded by the U.S. and
Israeli strikes, but in a country where there are things like MANPADS, shoulder launched, you know, highly mobile surface-to-air weapons systems,
that kind of air superiority can never be absolute.
And I think that's, you know, what the United States must have already known, but is now being illustrated to it with the fact that this F-15 jet
has been shot down, as you say, the first time a U.S. war plane has been shot down in Iran since this conflict began.
NEWTON: You know, I'm wondering because so much hinges here on the Strait of Hormuz. We did learn that perhaps or it seems that at least one French
flagship did get through. We just heard from the Polish foreign minister just saying, look, we can't get out there immediately and try and defend
this strait.
So, is that -- was those few exceptions? Is there hope there in the region that perhaps there would be some system to start getting some ships moving
through the strait safely?
CHANCE: I think so. I think 00 I think -- you know, it's not -- it's not clear exactly what Iran has in mind if it indeed ends this conflict with
control over the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranian parliament has for example passed legislation recently that would mean that the Iranian
government would be charging tolls for any shipping that goes past and obviously we saw this French vessel, French registered vessel go through
within the past 24 hours as well.
I think it all means that what Iran really wants isn't to completely block off the Strait of Hormuz if it's left in control of it, but to have
authority over it and it wants to demonstrate that. You know, whereas previously anyone could come and go as they please through that strait, it
will be Iran that decides who goes through and who doesn't. And I think that's a real strategic gain, a strategic win for the Islamic Republic if
that is indeed how this war ends with it in control of that strait.
NEWTON: Yes, such a good point. And given that it's likely not the outcome that the United States or Israel wanted at the beginning of this conflict.
Matthew Chance, good to have you in the region. I appreciate it.
Still to come for us tonight, we'll have the latest from the war in Ukraine and how the global energy crisis is now influencing battlefield decisions.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:42:14]
NEWTON: Ukraine has been ramping up its attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals in recent weeks. This comes as sanctions on Russian oil
are loosened due to global supply issues, of course, sparked by the war in Iran. Now, Russian strikes on Ukraine though have also continued and that
includes a drone attack on the city of Obukhiv near the capital city of Kyiv. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy maintains though that the
front lines are in their best position, he says, in nearly a year. He's invited U.S. officials to Kyiv for a fresh round of peace talks.
Joining me now is Tatiana Mrova. She's a global fellow at the Colombia University Center on Global Energy Policy. And I thank you for being with
us today, especially as I continue to look at those attacks that Ukraine has been imposing on Russia. And we remind our viewers, right, this war is
still raging, especially as we head into spring.
Now, those attacks really caught my attention. They're Ukrainian attacks on Russia's Baltic export hubs, and Ukraine has actually managed to
significantly damage Russia's energy infrastructure there. I'm wondering how you see this affecting the current global energy crisis.
TATIANA MITROVA, GLOBAL FELLOW, CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: This is indeed true. Recently, Ukraine attacked several Russian
oil terminals, not only in Black Sea, but also in Baltics, creating significant damage. This was a different kind of attacks compared to
anything before. And for last week, these were several waves of attacks on the same energy sites, which resulted basically in a short-term 40 percent
disruption of Russian export capacities.
As you can imagine, that was extremely disappointing for Kremlin at the moment when oil prices are skyrocketing. Losing this ability to export
actually resulted in a significant loss of the budget revenues about $1 billion in one week. Nevertheless, Russia still regards itself as a
beneficiary of this conflict. And obviously, with the oil scarcity that we are observing right now globally, the loss of any barrel already matters
for the global oil balance.
NEWTON: And I do want to get to what you call the Hormuz dividend for Moscow. But just getting back to these Ukrainian attacks, you argue that
Ukraine is actually trying to turn Russia's own export corridors into another checkpoint. You know taking some lessons from what's gone on in the
strait here, is Ukraine succeeding? Can't it succeed in the next few weeks, especially as you know as well as I do, Europe is actually putting pressure
on Ukraine to kind of back off of these attacks?
[14:45:04]
MITROVA: Right. At the moment when Europe is facing this disruption of both oil and gas suppliers from the Gulf, Russian oil and gas are becoming much
more attractive and certain groups inside the E.U. especially industrialists, they are becoming much more keen to restore at least
partially supplies from Russia. European Commission is discussing postponement of the ban on Russian hydrocarbons. But at the same time
Ukraine is really much more successful than it was before in limiting Russian export capacities.
You've mentioned choke points. Exactly that's what Ukraine is trying to achieve, blocking Russian oil and gas inside the country, not allowing
Russia to receive these dividends from higher oil and gas prices globally. And I would say, it will depend -- the success of these tactics will depend
on how insistent Ukraine will be in supporting the same scale and frequency of attacks.
It's difficult to predict whether the resources are there. But the desire is obviously to keep Russia in this constrained -- infrastructure-
constrained state.
NEWTON: Yes. It shouldn't be lost on anyone that this does give Ukraine leverage even over its allies both in Europe and certainly the United
States.
I want to get back to what you call Russia's Hormuz dividend. And I mean that dividend is real given that there was a loosening of sanctions. Do you
see this lasting for weeks, months or longer given the position that the world finds itself in now with this energy crisis?
MITROVA: I would say it highly -- it's highly likely. So far, the waivers were granted for just one month, but we can see that Indian buyers for
example are already making month-ahead contracts hoping that the way will be extended into April and probably May. So yes, it might not last forever,
but at least for a period of time when oil prices are so sensitive, especially in the U.S. domestically, every million barrels per day that
Russia can supply, they already matter for the global market. And it's very likely that Russia will keep obtaining these temporarily exemptions permits
which is a huge, huge gain for Kremlin. That was one of the desirable outcomes and so far, it is achieved.
NEWTON: Tatiana, we really appreciate your expertise as it is so important now as we all try to parse the growing concern over energy prices and
supply. Tatiana Mitrova for us. Thanks so much.
MITROVA: Thank you.
NEWTON: Now, still to come for us tonight, the Earth is getting smaller and the moon drawing closer. We will take you on board NASA's moon mission to
hear what the astronauts are up to today.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:50:46]
NEWTON: And welcome back. Those are live pictures, by the way, from NASA as we continue to track the four astronauts speeding away from Earth toward
the moon. Now, they were woken up just a short time ago to begin the third day of their mission. That's after two jam-packed days of activity, things
thankfully are a little bit quieter today. The crew will do some small course corrections to ensure they are on the right path to slingshot around
the moon and come back to Earth. They will also practice some emergency medical techniques that don't require gravity.
Now, the crew has sent back some high-resolution pictures from space and say the views are simply amazing. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTINA KOCH, MISSION SPECIALIST, ARTEMIS II: Having just experienced incredible views of planet Earth and seeing the entire planet out the
window in one pain, knowing that we're about to have some similar views of the moon in that same way is definitely getting me more excited for it. I
knew that that is what we would see, but there's nothing that prepares you for the breathtaking aspect of seeing your home planet both lit up bright
as day and also the moon glow on it at night with the beautiful beam of the sunset and knowing that we're going to get similar views of the moon. I'm
just -- I'm really excited for that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NEWTON: Ed Lavandera is at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. And Ed, their enthusiasm is just contagious because every time they speak about
this, they just light up. Even though they've gone through tons of simulations, they are really excited about this mission and you can tell.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Oh, absolutely. You know, you could see it on their faces. You can see the way that was really
kind of the first time. We got a good clear look of all four of them together. You see Jeremy Hansen crammed in that space over that cargo area
that was all kind of like netted down. So, you can kind of really get a feel for, you know, how you have these four astronauts working in what is a
very cramped space.
And one of the things that they're really kind of learning to do and trying to master here is how do you keep moving gear around depending on the kind
of work that you need to do. So, the configuration and the reconfiguration of that space so that it becomes either a sleeping area or a working area
or depending on what kind of experiments or what kind of tests they need to run, just learning the mechanics of how this capsule will work for future
missions is one of the things that they're putting to the test.
But right now, the -- this is a crew that is on the long journey to the moon. It will take about four days to go more than 250,000 miles. And they
will continue to beam back some stunning images. And we know that at some point today, it sounds like there will be a camera attached to these solar
panels that will extend from the capsule. And what we understand is there could very well be some stunning images of the capsule with the Earth and
the Moon behind it.
And you can -- you know, it's really kind of striking when you listen to these astronauts talk about how much time they've spent looking out of the
six little windows that they have in this capsule to kind of get a glimpse of what is flying past them and what is beyond in that -- the great area of
space. Paula?
NEWTON: Yes. And that it's hard to really think back to what this is all about. This is a test mission. At the end of the day, Artemis is supposed
to be -- the next missions are going to have a permanent base on the moon. And yet we seem to be learning so much already about what the purpose of
this is in terms of having that permanent base on the moon.
LAVANDERA: Yes. You know, a lot of what they're having to do is, you know, put this capsule to all sorts of tests to kind of get a sense of what it
can and can't do, what needs to be improved on or redesigned for the next missions. And then when they get to the far side of the moon, you know,
this is a crew that is equipped and has been trained in in geology, for example, like -- so that when they're on the far side of the moon, they're
going to be able to snap pictures and capture an area of the moon and the lunar surface that even Apollo missions didn't get a good glimpse at.
And that is important because studying the ground there as up close as possible, even though they're only going to -- they're going to be about
4,000 miles away from that lunar surface, that they need to be able to study that because these could be areas that NASA and this Artemis mission
in the future could use as landing areas for, the spacecrafts that eventually get to the -- return to the moon's surface. So, all of that kind
of work is what they're going to be preparing for over the course of the next few days.
[14:55:22]
NEWTON: Thanks so much for bringing it to us. It's been riveting and quite a respite from the rest of the news of the day. Ed Lavandera for us in
Houston. Thanks so much.
LAVANDERA: Absolutely.
NEWTON: And finally for us, reports of the death of the world's oldest living land animal turned out to be thankfully a hoax. News of the death of
Jonathan, the 193-year-old tortoise -- I did not get that wrong. 193 -- went viral on social media earlier this week. And it was more than just an
April Fool's Day prank.
The X account falsely claiming to be a veterinarian who had looked after the tortoise, that account was actually asking for crypto donations. We
want to report that Jonathan is very much still kicking, albeit slowly, on the island of St. Helen. I will point out if we were 193 years old, we'd be
moving quite slowly as well.
I want to thank all of you for watching. Stay with CNN. I'll be right back in just a moment with "WHAT WE KNOW."
END
