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Isa Soares Tonight
Both the United States and Iran Claim Victory After Stepping Back from a Catastrophic Brink By Agreeing to a Two-Week Pause in the War; Israel Launches Blistering Strikes Across Lebanon; President Trump to Send Envoys to Islamabad this Weekend for New Ceasefire Talks on Iran. Oil Prices Plunge, Markets Surge Amid Fragile Ceasefire; Iran Continues Strikes on Oil Targets Around the Gulf; Israel Launches Largest Strikes on Lebanon; Anthropic: New A.I. Too Powerful to Release to the Public. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired April 08, 2026 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: Hello, and a very warm welcome, everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, both the United States and Iran are
claiming victory after stepping back from a catastrophic brink by agreeing to a two-week pause in the war.
But the fate of their fragile ceasefire is far from clear this hour amid continued attacks in the region, as well as confusion over what the truth
even covers. Israel launched blistering strikes across Lebanon today, including some of the deadliest attacks on Beirut in decades.
Israel says most of the Hezbollah targets hit were located in civilian areas. Lebanon says at least 112 people have been killed, and more than 800
others wounded. Israel and the U.S. President, Donald Trump, say Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire, contradicting Iran and key mediator,
Pakistan.
Iran has reportedly halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response. Iran also carried out its own attacks today on U.S. gulf
allies, saying it's retaliation for its oil facilities being targeted. Meantime, the Trump administration insists the ceasefire is a success, and
says it expects Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
And just moments ago, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Mr. Trump will send envoys to Islamabad this weekend for new ceasefire talks on
Iran. Karoline Leavitt also praised his negotiating tactics. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: They put forward a more reasonable and entirely different and condensed plan to the President and
his team. President Trump and the team determined the new modified plan was a workable basis on which to negotiate, and to align it with our own 15-
point proposal.
The President's red lines, namely the end of uranium enrichment in Iran have not changed. And the idea that President Trump would ever accept an
Iranian wish-list as a deal is completely absurd.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, our teams are live across the region and in Washington this hour, we begin with Kristen Holmes at the White House, our Clarissa Ward,
as you can see there is in Riyadh. We'll go to Clarissa in just a moment.
Kristen, let me start with you, really, and what we've just heard from the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, especially that clip that we
just played regarding the red lines having changed -- have not changed from the U.S. President.
Give us a sense of what the U.S. is looking for here, because we've seen -- we have a clear idea of what Iran wants, and really look ahead to this
weekend, the talks. We have a great idea now, a clearer idea of the makeup of who is leading those negotiations from the U.S. side.
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and Isa, I do want to point out what she's talking about because there's a very distinct reason
why she is focusing on this idea of two separate plans, an unserious one, and one that is workable that they could negotiate off of.
And that is because of the statement that we saw yesterday from the Iranian Security Council that essentially laid out several points that President
Trump had said publicly were redlines, and said that the United States had agreed to them.
The White House was infuriated by that statement, and now they have come back to say that there were two separate plans, one of them being negotiate
-- able to negotiate off of that is the one that we know almost nothing about.
President Trump, Karoline Leavitt, no one has put forth anything that shows what is in that second 10-point plan, and what makes it different from the
first. I do want to point out what she said about the Strait of Hormuz, because we have been hearing so many conflicting reports, as you said.
She noted that Iran has been privately telling the White House and the United States, that they are going to keep the Strait of Hormuz open,
despite reports that Tehran is trying to close the waterway. So, that was one part there.
Then you mentioned those discussions, those negotiations. This has been a real -- will it happen? Won't it happen in actual sit-down between Iranian
officials and United States officials? We've been talking about this now for three weeks.
Does sound as though right now, it is on the schedule in Islamabad. It will have Vice President J.D. Vance leading those talks. He's currently in
Hungary, he's going to go home, back to America before heading out to Pakistan.
[14:05:00]
We're also going to have Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as part of those discussions. They have been part of almost all of these negotiations that
have been ongoing. We do also know that the Pakistani negotiators will be there as well, we don't know who Iran will send.
SOARES: Kristen, do stay with us. Let me go to our Clarissa Ward. And Clarissa, while the White House and I think various members of the White
House -- we still have Clarissa? We do.
While they take a victory lap, we've heard from the President, of course, we've seen tweets, messages from the President, we heard from Secretary
Hegseth, Karoline Leavitt calling this a victory for the United States, a ceasefire victory for the United States.
We are seeing these violations, these infringements right across the region. Speak to that, and also, the Strait of Hormuz, which is key here.
We heard from the President, Karoline Leavitt basically saying it is unacceptable that Iran is blocking it right now. What is -- what are you
seeing on the ground? What are you hearing?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I would say, Isa, that today started with a huge wave of relief, particularly here in
Saudi Arabia and the gulf countries, where they thought this ceasefire meant that a crisis had been averted.
There had been real fears here that had President Trump carried out his threat to decimate Iran's civilian infrastructure. That countries like
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others would bear the brunt of Iran's retaliatory attacks.
Fast-forward to the evening where we find ourselves now, and there is definitely a sense of anxiety and concern that this ceasefire is even more
fragile than we had previously thought. The deadliest, heaviest day of strikes, of Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
That, then provoking the ire of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is saying if those strikes don't stop, that they will respond militarily
against the aggressor, in that case, Israel. We have also seen a number of missile and drone attacks here in Saudi Arabia, also in the UAE, also in
Kuwait and Bahrain, particularly here in Saudi Arabia.
I should note, a strike on a pumping station at the crucial east-west oil pipeline. This is a desperately-needed artery for gulf states to get their
crude oil out to be exported. And all of this -- because the reason it's become so crucial is because of the stranglehold that Iran has had on the
Strait of Hormuz.
As you mentioned, we're hearing conflicting reports earlier this morning. We understood that two ships had managed to pass through the Strait, but
now, we are hearing from Iranian semiofficial state media, let's say, "Fars" is that, in fact, in the wake of those Israeli strikes on Lebanon,
that the Strait has been closed again.
While another Iranian semiofficial state media is reporting that Iran's leadership is considering backing out of the ceasefire and the talks on
Friday all together. And underpinning this all, as you were just discussing, is this glaring chasm between what Iran sees as its 10-point
plan.
And what the U.S. sees as its 15-point plan, with many here in the gulf concerned that their security concerns, which will continue after the U.S.
potentially pulls out and leaves, and which will leave them very vulnerable if this is not resolved in a proper manner. Isa.
SOARES: Yes, let's -- stay with us, Clarissa, let me go back to Kristen. And Kristen, Clarissa was talking about this and says the strikes that we
have been seeing in Lebanon, there was some confusion. Sticking with the confusion theme here earlier on, and whether Lebanon was part of the
ceasefire.
The U.S. is in Israel, says it isn't, although Pakistan, who is a mediator, said it was initially. Now, we're hearing from Tehran warning in just in
the last two hours of regret-inducing response if Israeli attacks do not stop. How did Karoline Leavitt address exactly the question of Lebanon?
Because there are fears that this could undermine the ceasefire.
HOLMES: Yes, and she kind of danced around the question. I mean, she said that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire. She reiterated that, we've
heard it from the President, now from her, from the U.S. and Israel.
When asked specifically the questions about closing the Strait, because that is what we were hearing in terms of threats, that they would close the
Strait of Hormuz if Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire.
Karoline Leavitt essentially said that she had heard those reports, and that was unacceptable to the President, that they had to keep the Strait of
Hormuz open, but did not go any further than that. Did not get into any detail about potentially including Lebanon in the ceasefire.
So, as of now, we don't really know where that situation is headed. Of course, as we noted, Karoline Leavitt made sure to say that Iran was
privately communicating, that it was going to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
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But in terms of actual reaction, and what is going to happen with Lebanon, we did not get any kind of clear details from Karoline Leavitt on that.
SOARES: Kristen and Clarissa, great to have you ladies, great to see you as well. Thank you very much indeed. Well, U.S. President Donald Trump is
describing Israel's strikes on Lebanon as a, quote, "separate skirmish with Hezbollah."
He goes on to agree with Israel that the ceasefire agreement does not include Lebanon, as you heard there, from Kristen at the White House. His
comments come as Israel is touting what it says are the largest strikes across Lebanon since the start of the war. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ISRAEL KATZ, DEFENSE MINISTER, ISRAEL (through translator): The IDF carried out a surprise strike against hundreds of Hezbollah militants and
headquarters across Lebanon. This is the largest concentrated blow Hezbollah has suffered since the Pager Operation.
Congratulations to the IDF for the flawless execution, and to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for leading the decision and maintaining the
separation between the Iranian and Lebanese fronts.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Right, that's the Israeli view. Let's get the perspective from Lebanon. And Nada Bashir joins me now from the capital, Beirut. Nada, great
to see you. Lebanon, as you've been reporting it from out of the day as we have seen on our screens, not part, right?
Of the ceasefires as with these attacks, despite these assertions that we've been hearing earlier on today from the Pakistani side, who are, of
course, the mediator. Just paint us a picture for our viewers right around the world, Nada, of what you and your team have been witnessing on the
ground.
NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, Isa, there certainly was a hope early this morning for so many in Lebanon that this country would be
included in the terms of that ceasefire deal. Clearly, that has not been the case.
In the early hours of the afternoon, we saw at least four blasts across the city, and this is a little different from what we've been seeing over
previous days. These were explosions, airstrikes carried out in parts of central Beirut.
So, not areas that have typically been under evacuation warnings by the Israeli military. And while, of course, we have heard from the Israeli
military, saying that they carried out this large-scale attack, targeting what they say to have been a 100 Hezbollah targets, not just in Beirut, but
across Lebanon in the space of just ten minutes.
We've actually been on the ground visiting these blast sites, looking at the aftermath, and many of these areas are residential areas. These are
locations where we have seen apartment buildings damaged, even destroyed, where we have seen local businesses, bakeries, car parks filled with cars
and people completely destroyed, burnt out, scorched.
We have seen fatalities throughout the day, and in fact, we did see following that initial round of airstrikes in Beirut and across the
country, a second wave of strikes, one strike being carried out just before sunset here in Beirut, in the Talitol(ph) Al-Hayat area.
Half of a building completely collapsing as a result of that strike. And as you can imagine, there has been an enormous response by the emergency
services here. Fire brigade, ambulances, officials from the military trying to support in that effort, in particular, in trying to recover bodies from
the rubble, and also trying to rescue survivors in that last strike we saw.
We are still seeing now emergency services on the ground dealing with the aftermath, but also trying to rescue people who are still remaining in that
part of the building that is still standing. Now, of course, this is an extremely concerning and troubling moment for Lebanon.
Warnings of -- clearly of a potential further escalation. And of course, as I mentioned, many had hoped that they would be part of that ceasefire
agreement. Clearly, that's not the case, and there is concern that if we do see a further retaliation by Hezbollah or potentially by Hezbollah ally,
Iran and the IRGC, that, that might trigger a further expansion of Israel's strikes that have already killed more than 1,600 people across the country.
SOARES: Yes, and as you were talking, Nada, we were looking at some of the images out of Lebanon and out of Beirut. They look pretty apocalyptic. You
were mentioning Hezbollah there. I wonder what they are saying, what their position is, given, of course, what the Israelis say they've made it very
clear they're going to continue the operations inside of Lebanon.
BASHIR: Well, look, we heard from a Hezbollah spokesperson this morning ahead of that initial wave of airstrikes, saying that they understood that
Iran had insisted that Lebanon be included in that ceasefire agreement.
But also noting in a statement that if Israel failed to uphold the terms of that agreement, if there were any further attacks, then Hezbollah would
also respond and retaliate in like. So, of course, we are expecting that we may potentially see Hezbollah carrying out further attacks on Israel in
response to today's deadly airstrikes carried out by the IDF.
[14:15:00]
There is also, of course, an indication that we may see potential retaliation by Iran and the IRGC as well. And of course, all eyes will be
watching to see what that potential response will look like. And of course, there has been mounting pressure, big pressure from the international
community for diplomacy, and of course, pressure also from within the Lebanese government.
It's important to note the Lebanese President has said he wants to see a diplomatic resolution to this conflict, that Lebanon wants no part in this
war. And that is certainly the message we've been hearing from many Lebanese people on the ground who do not want to see an escalation.
SOARES: Indeed. Nada, great to see you, thank you very much indeed. Our Nada Bashir for us there in Beirut in Lebanon. Well, in the last hour, my
colleague Christiane Amanpour spoke to Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
He was very clear that in order to talk about a complete ceasefire in the region, it needs to extend to Lebanon as well. Calling the Israeli
offensive right now, quote, "completely counterproductive". Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KYRIAKOS MITSOTAKIS, PRIME MINISTER, GREECE: We have a strategic partnership with Israel. But, you know, friends need to speak truth to
friends. And my view on Lebanon has been very clear. For the first time in decades, I think we have a competent government in Lebanon.
If these attacks continue, you will have a humanitarian catastrophe. It is already evolving, but you will also end up legitimizing -- delegitimizing
completely the Lebanese government. I don't think this is in Israel's long- term interest.
And, you know, I would hope that these operations stop as quickly as possible, not just for humanitarian reasons, but also for making sure that
we maintain, you know, a general framework of a ceasefire that encompasses the whole region.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, let's stay with this shaky ceasefire. We're joined now by U.S. House Democrat, who says President Trump's actions in this war
demonstrate he is unfit to serve. Suhas Subramanyam is among dozens of lawmakers calling for the 25th Amendment to be invoked to remove Mr. Trump
from office.
Congressman, great to have you on the show. I will ask you about the 25th Amendment, but I really just want to get your reaction, first of all, to
what we have heard from Karoline Leavitt calling this ceasefire deal a victory.
It seems both sides have agreed to a deal. Very little details right now, very scant, but violations as you probably heard at the top of the show,
already taking place, and the Strait of Hormuz seems to be closed. Is this a victory?
REP. SUHAS SUBRAMANYAM (D-VA): Oh, absolutely not. Even if the Strait of Hormuz was open, even if everything that was in the ceasefire agreement was
upheld, I have trouble figuring out which ceasefire agreement is actually in place, because, the different parts of this agreement, the different
parties to this agreement don't agree on that.
And so, even Iran sent out a ceasefire agreement in two different languages, and it contradicted itself. And now, we're seeing the Strait of
Hormuz closed -- even if it's open, it's pretty clear that there's an acknowledgment that Iran controls it now.
And that was not what was happening at the beginning of this war. So, we've gone backwards from this conflict. That's why I've been against this
conflict all along. And it's another diplomatic failure by this administration.
SOARES: And you're right, because I remember when this war started just weeks ago, when this started -- this war, congressman, was about -- I
remember it, first, the Iranian protesters, then it was about nuclear weapons and the enriched uranium.
And now, it seems the Trump administration is focusing this win as you probably heard on the Strait of Hormuz. Karoline Leavitt saying it's
unacceptable that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the victory lap they're taking very much centered around the Strait of Hormuz, which, like
you said, wasn't -- what led to this war. It's a cause of the war. What does this tell us, then, about the goals of this entire operation?
SUBRAMANYAM: Well, the main goal of this operation was to cut off Iran's nuclear program and get at its enriched uranium. And so far, it seems that,
again, both sides have different opinions on -- and different stories to tell on what the outcome of that goal has been.
Because the U.S. is saying that there should be no more enrichment, but the Iranians are saying that they're going to continue to enrich. And so, it
doesn't seem like that goal has been fulfilled. The ballistic missile program, Iran can rebuild that within several months.
It has been decimated for sure, but they can rebuild it. Certainly, its Navy wasn't really much to begin with. So, those were the main goals that
were given to us after some focus-grouping by Trump on what the goal should be after he started this war. But looking forward now, I am still
optimistic that there is a diplomatic solution to all of this.
SOARES: Yes --
SUBRAMANYAM: It's going to take a lot of hard work and many weeks, if not months of negotiating. I just don't have a lot of faith in this
administration and this President, to have the patience to move forward with a diplomatic solution.
[14:20:00]
They have shown themselves to be bad at diplomacy at this point.
SOARES: Right, so, if the negotiations then fail, I mean, very clearly, from what we know when we don't have all the details at this point
regarding the 10-point and the 15-point plan, the two sides though seem very far apart.
The U.S. said if it fails, it would resume operations, resume what it calls escalation options. Politically, then, congressman, what can Democrats do?
Because there have been calls for a war powers vote.
SUBRAMANYAM: Yes, it's not just Democrats now. It's Republicans, too, that have said they would support a war powers vote. And I think that would be,
if nothing else, a symbolic vote to show that there is bipartisan opposition to this war at this point.
Second, they're going to come to us in Congress and ask us for more funding for this war, and I'm not going to give them a dime. They need to show me
that all diplomatic options have been exhausted, and there's an imminent threat, that's clearly not true on either front.
And at this point, they have shown themselves incapable when it comes to strategy, when it comes to diplomacy. And we really have to think about
that when we're thinking about how, you know, we've cut off programs, we've defunded things like SNAP programs and Medicaid, and the American people
are paying higher prices because of this war and because of this administration. And so, we really just have to shoot that down as well.
SOARES: And we have heard a lot of rhetoric from this U.S. President regarding NATO and NATO allies. Today, as you well know, congressman, he's
meeting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office. He has floated the idea of withdrawing NATO membership, Karoline Leavitt in the
last, what?
Half an hour and said -- also said that the message from the President on NATO allies, well, they were tested and they failed. If the U.S. President
does withdraw from NATO, what can Democrats -- do you think Republicans even would speak up against this?
SUBRAMANYAM: Yes, after many Republicans on Capitol Hill who have supported NATO over the years, we'll see if they speak up, too. But
withdrawing from NATO, it hasn't happened to date because it would be an absolute disaster for multiple reasons.
And remember, Russia is helping Iran while Iran attacks us and our allies. And so, you know, doing Russia favors like withdrawing from NATO does no
good for our country. And if -- well, your priority is, let me keep Americans safe, then you wouldn't withdraw from NATO. And so, we're going
to continue to push back against that.
SOARES: And we shall see, of course, when they meet, what comes out of that meeting, and the language, of course, being used. But before I let you
go, congressman, I really want to get your reaction to the social media posts over the last 24 hours from the President of the United States that
really left us all with aghast right around the world, threatening just 24 hours ago to obliterate a whole civilization.
I did see a tweet from Governor Tim Walz saying yesterday that the President had lost his mind. Karoline Leavitt speaking in the last half-
hour said it was part -- you know, it brought the ceasefire, that language, that rhetoric, you know, gave us a ceasefire. Well, how do you respond to
that?
SUBRAMANYAM: That is not the Intelligence that I have. And I will say that, this President has shown himself to be unfit for the job at this
point with tweets like that. I think the reality is, if you're going to post something like that, and it reflects on our country, and it shows that
we lose our -- you know, leadership in the world stage at this point.
And to have something like that happen, we can't forget about it. Even with the ceasefire, even if that was just posturing, that is absolutely horrible
posturing and should never be allowed. And I do question his fitness, and I haven't to date questioned his fitness until those posts. And so, we really
have to look at that too.
SOARES: Other Democrats, congressman, also questioning his fitness, given what we've heard? We've also heard the President, you know, sending them
down -- sending Iran to the -- to the stone age rhetoric like that.
SUBRAMANYAM: I've heard Democrats and Republicans question the President's --
SOARES: Yes --
SUBRAMANYAM: Fitness after those posts. At least, 70 Democrats, by my count, and several Republicans, certainly Republican influencers, have --
SOARES: Yes --
SUBRAMANYAM: Themselves been leading the charge on the 25th Amendment. And again, you know, it's one thing to posture, but the words matter when you
say those things, they really do matter and they reflect on our country and they reflect very poorly on our country.
SOARES: Congressman, really appreciate you taking the time to speak to us. Thank you very much, sir.
SUBRAMANYAM: Thank you.
[14:25:00]
SOARES: And still to come tonight, how quickly can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, and who will control it moving forward? Ahead, we'll look at the
Strait and really its impact on the markets. And a former U.S. State Department negotiator says the ceasefire could be a strategic mistake for
the U.S. We'll talk with Aaron David Miller in just a few minutes. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: Well, as you heard at the top of the show, there is confusion right now about the state of the ceasefire in the Middle East, with Iran
saying it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Israel stops attacking Lebanon.
But the oil and stock markets are acting like things are getting slowly back to normal. Oil prices you can see plunged today in the U.S. and in
London down more -- well, 15 percent for WTI crude, Brent crude down almost, well, 12.5 percent.
And we are seeing a huge rally as you can expect as well in stock markets, with stocks surging more than 2 percent right, Dow Industrials up 2.5
percent, S&P, a similar picture, Nasdaq faring the best at this hour. It is worth noting that both the stock and oil markets are still a long way of
course from where they were before the conflict began more than a month ago.
Well, despite the market reaction, there is still a lot, a long way to go to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. Marine tracking
data does show hundreds of ships are still stuck on either side of the Strait, and only a couple have gone through.
Shippers say there is uncertainty about how to coordinate passage with Iranian authorities, and neighboring gulf states say Iran continues to
launch drone and missile attacks on energy targets in the region. That's what we heard from our Clarissa Ward right at the top of the show.
Let's dig a bit more into all of this. I'm joined now by my colleague, Anna Cooban. Anna, there is a lot of confusion, and I think that is almost part
of the story, because ceasefires are inherently shaky, right? In the early hours.
But now, we've heard from Karoline Leavitt saying -- President Trump saying it's unacceptable for the Strait of Hormuz, this passage here that we've
been focused on for so long to be close. What do we know? Is it open? Was it ever open? How many ships have passed?
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS & ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT: It's really difficult to say whether or not it was ever open. I mean, what people want to see is
the same level of traffic moving through, around 140 vessels a day before this war.
But that's certainly not where we're at right now. We have data from marine traffic, a shipping data company, that earlier today, two vessels got
through, one that was owned by Greece, the other has the Liberian flag. It's unclear whether or not they were allowed to pass because of the
ceasefire or whether they were getting through anyway, because there was already a trickle.
But I do want to pause on the terms --
SOARES: Yes --
COOBAN: Of this ceasefire. And Iran was saying that it will allow the Strait of Hormuz to open, but with coordination from its military.
Now, this is a long way away from where we were before the war, and that still raises the hackles of oil traders, because Iran still basically has
control about which ships will pass through.
ISA SOARES, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: Right, and take a step back. When we're talking about prior to the war, we're talking about the strait here
for ships to pass. How was that done? Was there any payment needed for Iran? How was that efforted?
COOBAN: I mean, it was pretty free-flowing. There was no payment, there was no toll system. Now, we're in a position where there was this widely
reported toll of $2 million fee per ship was widely reported to allow ships to pass.
Now, there's reports from Iran saying that Iran and Oman are considering a joint system by which a toll is paid, a transit fee is paid. Now, that is a
million miles away from where we were before. And that again runs into so many problems, questions over whether or not ships are going to be paying
money to the IRGC, which is designated as a terrorist group, which will run into U.S. sanctions like this, really would be very unacceptable to market.
SOARES: And we are seeing movement, this is from earlier this morning, just to show you how busy it continues to be, how really Iran has a
chokehold over this whole area. I mean, even Trump is even mentioning the fact that they will charge a fee, a toll.
COOBAN: Yes.
SOARES: I mean, it's so -- we're hearing so many conflicting ideas here. Talk to me about this Saudi pipeline, because I think you and I spoke a
couple of weeks ago about this, but now we've seen Iran hitting it. What do we know?
COOBAN: So, it's worth just mentioning or emphasizing just how important this pipeline is. Seven million barrels a day, it's maximum capacity. This
was kind of the lifeline of getting Saudi oil out of the strait and through the Red Sea there. It was going to its port of Yanbu. And what we've seen
today is reports from the FT that there was a drone attack along a pumping station along here, which is likely to have impacted oil supply.
And so, that really throws things into disarray, obviously, with straightforward moves, we're still only really seeing a trickle of ships
get out. And so, this was the avenue to really see any sort of relief in the world oil market. And now, that's been attacked. And we don't know too
much about the longer-term impact of that.
SOARES: Very briefly, because we're running out of time. What are you hearing from all traders regarding the prices where we are? I know they're
lower now, but really, do they think this is the beginning of a promising ceasefire?
COOBAN: I think they've become less confident as the day has worn on, because we've now seen Iran say that oil tankers can't get through because
of attacks on Lebanon. These prices, great falls today. But as you mentioned earlier, we are nowhere near where we were before the war.
SOARES: Anna, thank you very much indeed. And still to come right here on the show, what happens when the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and
Iran ends? Some expert analysis from a former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:35:00]
SOARES: Well, now on our top story this hour, as the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran hangs in the balance, both President Trump and
Iran have portrayed the last-minute deal as a victory for their nations. But the extended nature of the differences between U.S. and Iran proposals
is not immediately clear. Pakistan's Prime Minister has invited delegations from Washington and Tehran for talks on Friday in Islamabad.
And the IDF today said it carried out the largest attacks on Lebanon since the war began, attacking, as you saw, alleged Hezbollah targets. Lebanese
officials report that more than 1,500 people have been killed in the past six weeks.
Aaron David Miller is a former USA Department Middle East negotiator. He's now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He
joins me now. Aaron, you're really the voice I needed this hour to try and make sense of what is happening. Proposals -- I don't know how many
proposals have been floated. Both sides clearly spinning their successes, which I imagine is normal after a ceasefire.
But clearly, as we've been hearing throughout the show, we've already seen violations across the region. Traffic with the Strait of Hormuz has been
halted. And now, I'm just seeing in the last few moments from this statement from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. I'm going to tell you
what he says. He says, as the president of the United States has clearly stated, the Islamic Republic of Iran's 10-point proposal is a workable
basis on which to negotiate and the main framework for these talks.
However, three clauses of this proposal have been violated so far. I won't read them all. One, regards Lebanon, explicitly referring to and declaring
as an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately. Two, intruding drones into an Iran airspace, and I'm
abbreviating everything here. Three, the denial of Iran's right to enrichment, which was included in the sixth clause of the framework. And he
ends, in such a situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. Is this the end before it's even begun?
AARON DAVID MILLER, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT, MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR: Is it the end? No, it just reflects the reality, I think -- and thanks for having
me. That you can't do this stuff on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do it through intermediaries, no matter how well-intentioned. And you
can't do it on a cell phone.
We're only going to know how real this is once -- if American negotiators sit down Friday, Saturday in Islamabad, maybe, with Iranian negotiators.
And even if that happens, we're in for a long and torturous road for several reasons. There's no trust or confidence, zero, between Washington
and Tehran.
Number two, the Iranians believe that the Trump administration is looking for a way out. And they believe it could be done. Trump administration
believes it can be done on the cheap. And the Iranians pick up on this. They're willing to negotiate. But the sense of urgency, I don't think they
have it.
So, as a consequence, you're dealing with two negotiators who don't trust one another on a core of issues which have never been transacted
successfully, even those related to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear agreement. They're all coming back in the worst
possible set of circumstances.
One final point. I mean, the president may or may not know what he signed up to by saying that the Iranian 10 points is a workable basis. He may even
have been more forthcoming. And if the U.S. signed up for that, it would represent a strategic defeat for the United States.
SOARES: And hopefully, we'll get more details in the next hours ahead, of course, looking ahead to Fridays. We know from Karoline Leavitt, J.D.
Vance, Witkoff as well. Jared Kushner will be part of that.
[14:40:00]
But let me go with what we have so far, because I know the details are scant, and there's little, quite frankly, or any overlap between the two
proposals. What we have are the two proposals. But I wonder whether you envision a scenario where the U.S. accepts any of Iran's key points. And I
think we've got a graphic.
Do we have the graphic? I just want to show viewers what Iran is demanding, right? Passage through -- regulating passage straight off Hormuz, no
attacks on Iran. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Compensation to Iran from damage. Lifting of all sanctions. Binding U.N. resolution peace
deal. I'm thinking maybe perhaps the last one might be the only doable one. What do you make? What do -- anything that you think the U.S. president
would agree to?
MILLER: No, and if it's a package, everything is agreed to, unless nothing is agreed to. That's not going to fly. Look, the question is whether or not
both parties for their own needs and requirements are prepared to accept a stand down for a limited period of time. I don't know if that's the case.
The Iranians will not trade opening the straits for a cessation of hostilities. They want to say regulating according to the Iranian military,
cutting deals with the Omanis to charge $2 million a tanker to get through. They want to be paid for what is now their new nuclear option. It's the
straits. And they are weaponizing geography in a way that has given them an upper hand over the Trump administration and the entire global
International Community.
Just make one other point. The fact that J.D. Vance is involved in this, I'm speculating here, but I think it reflects the fact that the Iranians
wanted J.D. Vance involved.
SOARES: Why do you think?
MILLER: That they either don't trust --
SOARES: Why do you think? Yes.
MILLER: Because I think they think that Kushner and Witkoff are far too hardline, tethered to the Israeli position on a number of issues. And it
would be head exploding if, in fact, it was the Iranian negotiators or whoever's making decisions that basically asked for J.D. Vance. That
reflects a lack of structure and competence in the administration.
In a galaxy far, far away, not back here on planet Earth, you'd have a secretary of state who would manage, who would report directly to the
president, have his or her full confidence work for half a dozen. That secretary of state would be able to basically tell the president when he or
she thought things are going well or not, and then you'd adjust accordingly.
The decision-making process leading up to this war, the negotiators as well as the strategic decision makers that ended up in a war of choice,
basically catering to the president's instincts of a war of choice, is really not a good reflection on the competence. And now, we have a
situation where the Iranians have picked the vice president.
SOARES: Such important insight, Aaron. Really appreciate, as always, having you on the show at this juncture. We'll see what happens in the next
48 hours.
MILLER: Thanks. Thanks for having me.
SOARES: Always great to see you, Aaron. Thank you very much. We're going to take a short break. We'll see you on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:45:00]
SOARES: Well, one of the world's leading artificial intelligence companies says its new A.I. is too powerful. Anthropic has decided not to release
Mythos AI to the public. It's worried hackers and other bad actors will get their hands on it. Anthropic is letting select companies that specialize in
cyber security use Mythos as a way of testing their own vulnerabilities. Anthropic also says it ran a test to see if it could contain Mythos, and
the A.I. quickly managed to escape. I mean, this is terrifying. It's a very troubling story.
I want to bring in CNN Cybersecurity Reporter Sean Lingaas to help us understand really the implications without trying not to scare anyone right
here. Sean, great to see you. When it says it was too powerful, what does that actually mean?
SEAN LINGAAS, CNN CYBERSECURITY REPORTER: It's a good question. I think it means basically that unfettered access to it would do more harm than good.
So, criminals, state-backed hackers that use these kinds of tools, it would be pretty easy for them to use Mythos and other A.I. models to really
accelerate how they conduct cyber-attacks, make it easier to find vulnerabilities, and there wouldn't be enough good people using the tool to
counteract that.
So, what they've decided to do after the initial announcement on Mythos itself leaked to the press, they decided to make this available to select
companies, but those companies happen to make up a good swath of the internet. So, internet traffic, you know, you have Amazon, you have
Microsoft, Apple, et cetera, who's who of tech giants.
So, the goal here is to use this very powerful tool internally at those companies to try to test for vulnerabilities and catch them before the bad
guys find them. And Anthropic obviously has been dealing with a lot lately in the press here in the U.S. You have this high-profile clash with the
Pentagon over the use of its A.I. tools.
This is something, however, that's a good news story pretty much any way you look at it because it's trying to boost defenses. It's trying to close
this gap that for a long time and currently the attackers have held on defense in terms of A.I. use. There's been this, you know, gap where they
have this extra advantage in terms of using A.I. and the time it takes to discover these vulnerabilities is longer than the bad guys can find them.
They're trying to turn the tables here. It'll take some time.
But also, as you alluded to in the intro, this is, you know, a bit of a precipice here we're on because it can be a very powerful tool if it gets
in the wrong hands, Isa.
SOARES: Yes, indeed. And why -- hence why we've seen a kind of flurry of concern, right, among security experts. Sean, always great to see you.
Thank you very much indeed. We're going to take a short break. We'll see you on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:50:00]
SOARES: And this just in to CNN, the speaker of Iran's parliament says there is no reason to have peace talks right now. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
says at least three main components of the proposal being discussed by the U.S. and Iran have already been violated. He says that makes it
unreasonable to even begin talks with a wider agreement.
I want to bring in our diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, who is in Tel Aviv. And Nic, I was discussing exactly this statement from Iran with Aaron
David Miller, the negotiator, in the last 10 minutes or so. I suppose my question to you, it doesn't bode well at this juncture. How do you
interpret what we're hearing from the Iranian parliament?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, it doesn't bode well. There are three issues there. And one of them, the first one that
they put forward, that the ceasefire has been violated because it was the terms of the agreed ceasefire that, according to Iran, that Lebanon would
also be part of a ceasefire, that Israel would not strike Hezbollah. We've heard from both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump both saying
that that's not the understanding they have. And that is perhaps the biggest hurdle.
Another violation is that the Iranians say that a drone has been in their airspace. Another violation, they say, is the denial of their entitlement
to enrich uranium. So, it's possible to imagine how, in a scenario of accumulating trust in advance of talks, that perhaps the drone overflights
could be dealt with in the diplomatic talks, if the talks were to happen later this week with senior-level Iranian and U.S. officials.
You could see perhaps how this issue of enrichment, which has been an issue that's dogged negotiations in the past, could perhaps be delved into in a
way that can provide a path forward for all sides. This is very tenuous, sort of hyperbolic, if you will, extrapolation of small details that I'm
giving here, because it's hard to imagine where they could find common ground, given everything that's happened, when they haven't found common
ground in talks before, without having had a six-week war. But to that point of the ceasefire in Lebanon, that seems to be the biggest hurdle.
So, what does it mean? It means that it's possible we may not even get to those talks, but the talks are designed to handle such issues. The language
is not saying the path to talks is dead in the water. They're just saying it's not going in the right direction.
SOARES: Indeed. And I'm glad you brought Lebanon. That's the first point, of course, in the statement from the speaking Iranian parliament. And the
fear is, of course, that what is happening, the strikes by the IDF in Lebanon, will undermine or could potentially undermine the entire
ceasefire.
We have heard from the Israeli prime minister, Bibi Netanyahu, pretty clear they will continue with the strikes on Hezbollah. What did he say in the
last hour or so?
ROBERTSON: Yes. He said that as far as he was concerned, Hezbollah wasn't removed from the table in terms of a ceasefire. He said that -- earlier in
the day he said that he supports the United States in its ceasefire with Iran, but very clearly putting Hezbollah and Lebanon outside of that. He
said that, again, in language that was frankly quite reminiscent of the language that he used after the 12-day war last summer, that there was a
historic victory that Iran had been set back years, a long period of time.
[14:55:00]
The strikes on Iran's ability to make weapons, drones, ballistic missiles, that its missile launchers, its stores, factory facilities, all of that
have been knocked a long way back. The reality does seem to be that Iran does retain a capability to still select targets and still fire back. This
is an incredibly fragile ceasefire at the moment.
SOARES: Nic, appreciate you coming up for us on this story, just breaking into CNN. Thank you very much. Nic Robertson there for us in Tel Aviv.
And finally, tonight, it is a relatively quiet day in space as the Artemis II mission heads back to Earth from the moon. The astronauts are planning
to do tests of their radiation shields to be prepared for the threat of solar flares. They will also test the craft's maneuverability. I hope I
said that right. NASA expects the four-person crew to splash down off the coast of San Diego on Friday evening. Terrific.
That does it for us. A very busy hour. Do stay right here. "What We Know" with my colleague, Paula Newton, is up next. I shall see you tomorrow.
Thank you for your company.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:00:00]
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