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Isa Soares Tonight
Trump Facing Growing Skepticism from Religious Votes; Vessels Targeted in Strait of Hormuz; Trump Extends Ceasefire with Iran; Iranian Official: Talks Will Resume Once U.S. Lifts Blockade; Iran War's Impact on Air Travel; Vanishing Sea Ice in the Arctic. U.S. and Iran Remain in a Standoff Over the Strait of Hormuz with Tehran Saying it has Seized 2 Ships; EU Set to Unlock $106 Billion Loan for Ukraine in a Huge Boost to Kyiv. Aired 2:00-3p ET
Aired April 22, 2026 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: A very warm welcome to the show, everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, the U.S. and Iran remain in a standoff
over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it has seized two ships. We'll have the latest on the ceasefire and any hopes, of course, for
diplomacy.
Then the EU is set to unlock $106 billion loan for Ukraine in a huge boost to Kyiv. I'll get reaction to this from Romania's Foreign Minister this
hour. Plus, on this earth day, CNN is in Svalbard, Norway. Its Arctic Sea ice once again reaches record lows. That and much more for you this hour.
But first tonight, a truce on shaky ground and no clear diplomatic path forward as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz. This hour, the U.S.
war with Iran appears to be at an impasse.
The push to resume talks between the two countries has been shelved for now, with sources telling CNN, U.S. President Donald Trump plans to give
Iran a limited time frame to resume negotiations after saying that an extension of the ceasefire was highly unlikely.
The President did just that, really on Tuesday. An Iranian official responded by saying the President's decision means nothing. Meantime,
Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. It says we're operating without proper authorization.
A third ship is now disabled off Iran's coast after being targeted by the IRGC. And a defiant tone struck at a pro-regime rally in Tehran with Iran,
as you can see there, parading what it says is a ballistic missile.
So, let's get more on all these strands for us, and I will go to our senior White House reporter, Kevin Liptak. Kevin, good to see you. So, where are
we then on these -- on these ceasefire negotiations? Because you know, the Iranians say today that the extension means nothing.
The White House still not giving us details of when this will drag out until. Do we know any more as to that decision, the President's decision to
extend the ceasefire? What was behind that?
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Right, and, you know, on paper and by paper, I mean on Truth Social, the --
SOARES: Yes --
LIPTAK: Extension is open-ended. You know, the President said only that it would keep going until these discussions are concluded. You know, behind
the scenes, the President, I don't think, has a particularly big appetite for having this drawn out.
I think he has a period of time in his own mind that he wants to hear what he calls a unified response from the Iranians about their negotiating
position. And that, at the end of the day, is why the President decided to extend this in the view of the Americans and in the view of the President's
advisors.
They see a divide in the leadership in Tehran. They don't think that the team that went to Islamabad for that first round is necessarily empowered
to sign off on any agreement.
They have heard no communication whatsoever from the supreme leader, and they are worried about sending J.D. Vance on another 17-hour flight to
Pakistan to sit down with a team of negotiators that don't necessarily have the final say on reaching any deal.
And until they see some of those divides smoothed over, they don't feel like it would be a useful exercise to resume these negotiations. But all of
that said, there is a degree of optimism in the White House that these talks could get back on track relatively quickly if they see some of those
divisions resolved, if they hear from the Iranians negotiating proposal that they think they can agree with.
They believe that they could get this back on track relatively soon, that J.D. Vance could be in the air, and President Trump would be able to avoid
the bombing that he says will resume if a deal isn't struck. You know, in reality, despite all of this bellicose rhetoric that you've been hearing
from the President, there is not much of an appetite to resume this war.
You know, it's unpopular. He has said that it would be ended by now. And he says that the U.S. has already -- military won it. And so, the political
position for him, I think, is a tough one if he was going to resume this war.
Now, what we're seeing happening in the Strait of Hormuz today, I do think complicates all of this, and does get at what the Iranians say is their red
line and coming back to the negotiating table, which is the end of the American blockade of the Iranian ports.
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You know, as we see the Iranians start to seize these tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, I think it just underscores that the fighting is still somewhat
underway. It's just happening on the seas. And both sides of this seem to believe that they have some leverage in their various blockades of the
Strait of Hormuz.
And now it seems as if it is a test of each country's will, of how much economic pain they're willing to endure, to see how long this last. But one
thing that is clear is that, none of that is going to be resolved until the two sides can sit down and hammer out an agreement.
SOARES: Yes, it is clear there's a question of who blinks first at this moment. Kevin, appreciate it. Thank you. Well, no one better reads speak to
about the standoff in the Strait than Simon Kelly. He served more than a quarter century in the Royal Navy, including seven tours in the Persian
Gulf.
Currently, he's a Maritime Operations Lead and Defense Consultant for the Fozzie Miller Group. Simon, welcome to the show, so great to have you here
given all these lines and headlines that we are hearing. You just heard there from our White House -- from our correspondent at the White House.
What is your take of what we're seeing right now? Because as you heard there from my colleague, the ceasefire has been extended until when? We do
not know. Yet, the IRGC is, as we just laid out, is seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
I mean, how do you see this moment? Is this a dangerous, potentially dangerous limbo we are facing right now?
SIMON KELLY, MARITIME OPERATIONS LEAD & DEFENSE CONSULTANT, FOZZIE MILLER GROUP: All right, thank you, good evening. I think that's a really good
question because I think today probably encapsulates a lot of what we're seeing at this phase in the -- in the so-called ceasefire and in the peace
negotiations in which we finish a day with probably more questions than answers.
And nothing is particularly clear, and obviously, information comes in, we've got at our fingertips, but it's not always very clear. So, we know
that today we've seen the IRGCN seize three vessels. Well, that's probably not quite the full story.
So, what we think has happened is two vessels were seized. So, the Francesca and the Epaminondas were seized. We now think that latter vessel
is now underway again. And so, it's been released. And the third vessel, Euphoria, which was reported as being seized, wasn't.
What's really interesting about this is, it looks like on initial kind of investigation that these vessels were given clearance to pass through by
the organizations that are administering the Strait transit from the Iranians, but were then stopped by the IRGCN.
So, you could read a lot into that. And it'd be quite easy to sort of make some analysis that says that this has been done deliberately, but all it's
done is as always, we've caused more confusion in the last 24 hours.
SOARES: Yes, and I mean that confusion, if you're -- if you're in charge of a vessel, you're trying to understand whether you risk it or not. That
plays into that, right. But you know, the Iranian -- the Revolutionary Guard said that they seized these two vessels because they were operating
without proper authorization.
I mean, how do you -- what do you understand or make -- help us understand here what authorization is needed? How do you get that authorization? I
mean, do you just call a number and you ask for that authorization? What is the protocol here?
And then the next question I have that's just not clear for us at this hour, Simon, is, how are these ships being seized?
KELLY: Yes, OK. Two really good questions. So, the first one is what it appears is that the vessels will approach the Straits and there will be
some kind of an intermediary who will contact the Iranians, and there will be an exchange of information.
So, last port of call, next port of call. What the cargo is, crew make up, flag, and all of the other sort of like myriad of information about the
ships that you would sort of expect. They'll then go and assess that information and decide whether or not they're going to clear the vessel to
go.
So, I think that's what they mean when they're talking about clearances. Interestingly, the vessels that were seized, there's a sort of, if you go
deeply enough in the sort of chain, there's an Israeli link. So, this is maybe why they could have been given clearance, not confirmed, but they
could have been given clearance by one set of Iranians and then seized by the IRGCN.
So, that's how this sort of is taking place. These sorts of intermediaries will contact the Iranians. How they're seizing them. So, the IRGCN does
retain its capability to operate with smaller craft. So, the U.S. administration has quite rightly announced the success against the
traditional Iranian Navy.
And they've had great success early in the conflict, but the Iranians retain this capability, and they've been able to do this for a long time.
Back in 2019, they seized the Stena Impero in the Straits of Hormuz, right under the nose of a Royal Navy warship.
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So, they're capable of doing this, and you don't need the sort of power of the U.S. Navy to send some small boats in, and perhaps a helicopter to put
their equivalent of marines on board.
SOARES: So, where we are right now, I mean, I would love to get a sense from you, Simon, you know, you know the industry so well. You're so well
connected. What are you hearing because if you're leading, you know, commanding a vessel, some ship, I mean, would you risk it? Would you cross
it?
Would you even have insurance? Give me a sense of some of the conversations that you have been hearing from your contacts.
KELLY: I think the reason that today is really interesting, if it's true that the Iranians gave it clearance, and it was then seized, is what you've
just done, is you've completely undermined the confidence of vessels who will wish to transit that Strait.
So, what we would see is they're building confidence in the merchant community and the insurance and the operators and the captains and the
crews of those ships to go through. And I would say, today has massively undermined that, because they can't rely on the Iranians.
The Americans are going to blockade and they perhaps don't understand what that means. And so, today is just another volatile day that further creates
confusion and challenges for the maritime industry. And there are crews who were stuck on these ships.
Again, looking at the news and looking at the same news we're receiving and trying to make sense of all this, when there doesn't appear to be a great
deal of sense.
SOARES: Yes, and the Iranians probably know that they have this leverage right now. Simon, really appreciate you --
KELLY: Yes --
SOARES: Taking the time to laying it out for us. We've had so many questions, not clear, very fuzzy, but a lot of uncertainty at this hour,
thank you very much indeed. Simon Kelly there for us. Well, we're going to turn to another war really and focus on Ukraine.
Because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's war on his country cannot be forgotten while the world focuses on Iran. He's calling
on the U.S. to renew ceasefire talks on Ukraine, saying it's a big risk to believe one war must end before you can mediate another. Mr. Zelenskyy
spoke with our chief international anchor, Christiane Amanpour.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT, UKRAINE: We support ceasefire. We're in this case now, America, they shifted to the Middle East, and they are
deeply in Iranian question. And I know that we have communication on the technical level with their negotiation group and my group, and they have
talks and they had, for example, yesterday some phone calls and et cetera.
But we hope that we can organize the meeting. I don't -- I don't see now the -- you know, the opportunity to meet today or tomorrow until the
question -- the case of Iran will not be closed or some fundamental ceasefire, something like this.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Well, that's having to really rely on another war until you end yours. You have said that
President Trump does not want to irritate Putin, and is trying to act like a negotiator rather than, you know, to take sides.
Tell me, you know, what you think now about the United States, the reliability of the Trump administration. Who are you depending most on now?
ZELENSKYY: First of all, I think that it's another -- it's big risks when you -- when you -- when you think that you have to close one war and then,
you know, mediate another. I think that it doesn't work this way because as -- I mean, this -- you have to think about security.
We don't have too much negotiation group from the United States. And in this case, I think it's a challenge that the same group is trying to manage
both. And I think what is important not to forget about Ukraine, because we have really full-scale invasion and big war on the land.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, President Zelenskyy also spoke about $106 billion loan just approved by the European Union, calling it a lifeline for Ukraine. The loan
was promised, if you remember, months ago, but didn't receive preliminary approval until Russian oil began flowing once again through a Ukrainian
section of pipeline that was damaged in a Russian strike.
Viktor Orban had blocked the loan as Hungary's Prime Minister, saying he wouldn't budge until Ukraine finished repairs. Well, those repairs were
completed yesterday. If you remember, Orban, of course, is no longer in power.
Mr. Zelenskyy says Ukraine urgently needs the EU funds to scale up weapons production. Well, Romania is on the frontlines of NATO's eastern flank and
has been calling for increased pressure, as well as sanctions on Russia as the war in Ukraine stretches on.
We're joined now by Romania's Foreign Minister, Oana, Toiu Foreign Minister, welcome to the show. Great to have you with us there from
Bucharest. Let me speak first about this loan, because this loan, of course, as we know, is a huge relief for Ukraine, I imagine for Euro too.
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They -- Europe has been pushing for this for quite some time, facing a veto at every chance it has from Hungary and Viktor Orban. How soon though,
Foreign Minister, will this money be disbursed? How soon can Ukraine get this cash?
OANA TOIU, FOREIGN MINISTER, ROMANIA: Thank you for having me. You're right. It's a good news, and it's a good news that we act as a European
Union of 27 states after the citizens have changed the leadership in Hungary.
In terms of the loan, this is a loan that's going to be repaid by Ukraine once Russia pays what they are due to be paid for the reconstruction when
time will come. The monies are going to arrive quite fast. We're talking about finances that are from the international financial market guaranteed
by the European Union as a loan to Ukraine.
A loan that needs to be paid in the future by Russia itself in terms of the war compensations, once we start the reconstruction.
SOARES: Right, but in terms of timeline, quite fast, are we talking, months? Are we talking -- are we talking six months? Are we talking weeks?
I ask this because, you know, Ukraine's deputy Prime Minister called the loan -- called the funding a matter of life and death.
And President Zelenskyy also says the question of our survival. So, you know, how quickly can it get to Ukraine, and frame that with how Europe
sees the conflict right now?
TOIU: Well, a lot of the technical work has been done before the formal vote that took place, especially as this is a promise that the European
leaders have made last year already. So, we see no hiccups on the way.
SOARES: OK, so no hiccups. So, you think what weeks -- we're weeks away from getting that funding, right? How important then --
TOIU: Over here --
SOARES: Foreign Minister, how important -- I'm sorry to interrupt. I'm just trying to get a clear sense because as we know, things are promised
and that takes quite a long time for -- to get there. And given what we've heard today from President Zelenskyy, it is vital, as he said, it is a
question of our survival.
How fundamental then -- how does Europe see the state of -- the current state of the conflict right now? And how crucial will these funds be to
that?
TOIU: Well, the current state of the conflict is actually getting worse. We see civilians being targeted, schools, hospitals. Ukraine has gotten
better in terms of air defense, and that has positioned them as well to be a security supplier for the Middle East.
But it is very important that we do our effort in the international community, and Romania contributes on that to de-escalate, to be able to
focus on all war fronts. Because what's also happening is something that our citizens are directly observing.
Is that beyond the frontline, we're moving into economic frontline, and we have seen the weaponizing of energy that Russia has done in Republic of
Moldova. In Ukraine, we see the weaponizing of energy with totally different instruments happening now in the Middle East and the Strait of
Hormuz that you covered before.
And that is why you're going to see that the countries from the Coalition of the Willing in terms of Ukraine, including Romania are also, most of us,
part of the Coalition generated by France and the United Kingdom.
To be able to have the international effort needed to contribute to a secure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalating what we now see
as a conflict there, to be able to lower the prices in a way where our citizens don't feel the pressure.
Because one thing that's very important for us is, as Europeans, as Romania, being a country bordering the Ukraine war, to make sure that
Russia has less resources to continue the --
SOARES: Yes --
TOIU: Aggression. But unfortunately, now we see that the profit from --
SOARES: Yes --
TOIU: The oil actually fits into the war-chest of Russia. And that is why we are committed to contribute on all sides.
SOARES: Right, so, and I think that's important because we have seen on the economic front, we have seen sanctions eased temporarily, I should say,
on Russia from the United States. Meantime, President Putin is benefiting, like you said, from this surge in oil prices off the back of the oil -- the
war in Iran.
How then -- what then? I should say, can Europe do here to limit Putin's gains, right? Gains this -- that's -- you know, this money he's adding will
go back to the war effort. What then can Europe do to try and stop this?
TOIU: We have just approved the 20th package of sanctions. So, that is something very clear. But also, we need to make sure we decrease the power
that Russia has in terms of energy by creating alternatives. And this is something where Romania we're focusing on, for example, on nuclear energy.
We're also the main natural gas provider inside the European Union. And we have accelerated the investments to help us help the region.
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And in that sense with the United States as well, we have consistent conversations. We're also going to meet Secretary Chris Wright next week at
the crisis(ph) Initiative summit and forum to be able to create a sustainable alternative to Russian Energy, not just in the present moment,
but to the medium and long term.
SOARES: And Foreign Minister, let me get your take on the diplomacy front. Because President Zelenskyy, we played a clip just before we came to you,
was speaking to my colleague Christiane Amanpour, and he said that it was a challenge that the same team of U.S. negotiators were talking about Steve
Witkoff and Jared Kushner were both leading talks with Iran, but also leading talks in Ukraine. Does he have a point that potentially this is a
concern?
TOIU: Of course, on one side, we see now with the war in the Middle East and as well in Ukraine, that everything is connected in terms of security,
the same drones, for example, that have attacked the countries in the Middle East from Iran are of the same design as the Russian drones that
stepped into our airspace in Romania and the European Union, the ones that are attacking in Ukraine.
We've seen exchanges there in terms of security, being security providers to each other, but also in the same time, of course, it's also
competitional resources, a competition on attention. And the United States being a key driver of the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
And also, obviously now focused on finding the proper next steps in terms of the Middle East. There is a need there to make sure that we are all
aware that if Russia continues the war in Ukraine and sees advances there, although they are currently seeing a lot of losses from Ukraine, that's
also going to indirectly empower the conflict in the Middle East.
And on the other side, the conflict in the Middle East, and the increasing prices of oil are feeding into the war-chest of Russia. So, we need to
treat them in connection to each other.
SOARES: Foreign Minister, really appreciate you taking the time to speak to us. Thank you very much indeed. And be sure to tune in to the show
tomorrow as we will have Jose Manuel Alvarez, who is Spain's Minister of Foreign Affairs, not only discuss Ukraine, but Iran, plenty of other topics
too.
Again, that's tomorrow at around the same time right here on the show. And still to come tonight, when President Trump pushed to change congressional
maps across the country, he probably didn't expect what would happen next. We'll have a look at how Democrats have taken a Republican idea, well, and
turned it in their favor.
And then later, CNN goes to the top of the world to answer the question, what happened to the missing sea ice? That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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SOARES: Well, it just got easier for Democrats in the U.S. to retake control of Congress. Voters in Virginia have voted to redraw the state's
congressional map, potentially giving Democrats four additional seats in the November midterms.
And the wave of redistricting across the U.S. was started by President Trump and the Republicans. But political analysts say it appears Democrats
have done a better job finding extra seats. All this comes as Republicans face increasing skepticism among voters.
The President, as you know, remains unpopular, the war in Iran and inflation are both drags on the Republican Party and many in the religious
right are questioning what the President is doing, picking fights, as we've been showing you in the last week with the pope.
Let's put it all into context for you. With more on all this, we welcome CNN's Jeff Zelenyy. Jeff, great to have you on the show. So, give us a
sense of you as a sense of how much then this redistricting in Virginia, how much has that given Democrats a boost? Of course, as we look to those
midterms?
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF U.S. NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Look, there is no doubt that it was a big win for Democrats in Virginia on Tuesday as they
decided to fairly dramatically redraw their congressional maps and add up to four seats for Democrats.
Right now, it's fairly split. The Democrats control six seats, Republicans five seats. That would change to a 10 to 1 advantage. So, it's fairly
significant. Overall, in the big picture, this is why this is so interesting and significant.
You'll remember last Summer, it was President Trump who said he believes he's entitled, Republicans are entitled, his word, to five more seats in
Texas. So, that launched a nationwide gerrymandering war, the likes of which we have never seen before.
California responded in kind, redrawing the maps after a referendum to add five more seats. A few other states have as well, but Virginia voted to
redraw their maps as well. So, when you sort of step back and look at all this, it's effectively a wash.
Democrats a year ago were very concerned that Republicans would have this huge advantage going into the Midterm elections. Now, that advantage does
not exist. There is still one more state, Florida, that is a deciding if they are going to redraw their maps.
That decision could come next week. But the reason this is such a big deal in history in the U.S., it has always been done that these maps are redrawn
every ten years after a census is conducted. Only President Trump changed that by calling for a mid-decade redistricting effort.
But it appears to have backfired on him because Democrats have a push back in some blue states like Virginia, and it got former seats there. So, it
certainly does not do anything to give Republicans any confidence going into the Midterm elections that ultimately decide which party controls the
House of Representatives.
SOARES: Yes, I mean, pushback, and we are -- he's seeing -- he has been seeing for the last several weeks and months a lot of pressure. And I want
to get your sense really on the story that we have been covering here.
And that is not just the war in Iran, as we've all been focused on this, but also the spat between the President and the pope. Of course, that A.I.
image he put out depicting himself as Jesus, which he then said, I think he said he was a doctor.
How is this being received by the Christian conservative base? Because I know he's been taking part and we've been reporting on this on marathon
Bible reading sessions. How is that going down?
ZELENY: Look, it's all just sort of confusing of why of all people would the President pick a fight with someone who is incredibly popular here in
America? And that is Pope Leo, of course, the first American-born pope from Chicago.
This is someone who has wide popularity among Catholics and non-Catholics alike. But President Trump, day-after-day-after-day, has sort of gone back-
and-forth with him over the pope's comments. And all popes have called for peace.
You know, it's not unusual from the pope's side to do that. It's very unusual for the President to pick this fight. So, in terms of how it
affects his base, there's no doubt that many Trump true believers will be with him until the very end. There is no doubt about that.
Among others, there's a bit of an exhaustion factor setting in. Why is he picking a fight with the pope, talking about religion and other things.
It's perhaps a distraction as we've seen, and we've become very well aware over the last ten years or so in the era of Trump.
He loves to distract and say whatever is on the top of his mind. It's unclear if this is going to have any effect in the elections. I mean, if
you are a conservative or Christian conservative, you are likely to base your candidate choice on those beliefs, not just simply because they
support the President.
But it just has left a bad taste in the mouth of many Catholics who are swing voters. So, you know, without a doubt, it turns off many voters. And
the White House advisors I speak to wish the President would talk about anything besides the pope. Isa?
SOARES: Let's see if he stays on track. We know he goes off message. Jeff, great to see you as always. Thank you.
ZELENY: My pleasure.
SOARES: And still to come tonight, dangerous crossings in the Strait of Hormuz, details ahead on the vessels targeted by Iran, and where things
stand now that the ceasefire deal has been extended for how long, because obviously we don't know.
Also, the war's cost on air travel, how the European Union plans to deal with potential energy shortages, and what that means, of course, for you.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: Returning now to our top story, and that is attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it seized two vessels in that
crucial waterway. As well as targeting a third ship which is now, quote, "disabled" off the country's coast.
And this comes, of course, as Tehran becomes increasingly infuriated by U.S. blockade of its Iranian ports. CNN is told U.S. President Donald Trump
plans to give Iran a limited time frame to come up with a proposal for new diplomatic talks. We don't know what that time frame is.
And in that last hour we've heard from Iran's president. You can see there on your screen, on X, the Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue
and agreement and continues to do so. Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations. The world sees your
endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions.
Well, let's get more on all these threats. My next guest is a Middle East correspondent for The Economist, a well-known face on the show, Gregg
Carlstrom joins me now here in London. Gregg, welcome to the show.
Well, let me start then with this comment from Iran's president. I mean, we're seeing rhetoric from both sides. In the meantime, it doesn't seem
like anything is moving, right? You've got U.S. -- a blockade on one side, the U.S. blockading. And then you have an extension for we don't know how
long. How do you see this moment? I mean, do you see this going anywhere constructive, first of all?
GREGG CARLSTROM, MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT, THE ECONOMIST: Not in the short-term. I think we're in this moment where this is not a sustainable
situation for long, this virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
[14:35:00]
I mean, yes, there is what seems like an indefinite extension of the ceasefire. But if things remain as they are, you have enormous pressure on
the global economy from oil and gas and other commodities being disrupted coming through the Strait. You have economic pressure on Iran as well. This
deadlock is not something that they can endure indefinitely.
And so, at some point, I think one side or the other, if there is no progress in talks, is going to be tempted to try and press their advantage
militarily to break this deadlock. And that's where we risk a return to conflict.
SOARES: You think that is the case? You don't think it's a question of -- well, neither side, from what I understand, are keen to go back to war.
They're trying to look for an off ramp. Is it a question of who blinks first, who can withstand this? I mean, as you look at the status quo as we
are right now, and it hasn't really shifted, who has the leverage in your view, Gregg?
CARLSTROM: I think the contradiction right now is both sides think they have the leverage.
SOARES: Right.
CARLSTROM: Neither side wants to return to war. You're right about that. Trump has made it very clear this is the second time he's backed down now
from these threats to attack Iranian power plants. He knows this war is unpopular at home. He doesn't want to resume. And the Iranians know a
second round will be even more destructive for them. So, no one wants to go back to war.
But Iran thinks it has the upper hand because of the economic pain it's inflicting on the world. And it thinks if Trump isn't willing to make
concessions right now, maybe a bit more pain will force him to do that. And they think they can endure the pain on their side. Whereas Trump now
believes this blockade that he has imposed on the strait, in his telling, will make the Iranians capitulate in a matter of days. And so, they both
think this is the moment when they have the advantage. Why should I make concessions?
SOARES: And President Trump said, Gregg, that he was extending the deadline based on the fact that the government of Iran is seriously
fractured. What do you understand about the makeup of that team who is calling the shots? Is it the IRGC?
CARLSTROM: By and large, I think it is. And I should say none of us really know what's going on in the halls of power in Tehran. Everyone is hiding
out in bunkers right now. The supreme leader, from everything that I have heard, that my colleagues have heard, is quite isolated at the moment. Both
for health reasons, he was hurt in those Israeli strikes at the beginning of the war, and also for security reasons. And everyone is vying, everyone
else in the Iranian government, to be the person who has access to and control of the supreme leader. So, he is not really calling the shots in
the way that his predecessor did.
And so, you do have this power struggle, I think, going on, not just between political and military figures, but also, I would say, within the
military to some extent as well. Not everyone has the same view. Some people think they ought to make a deal before there is another round of
fighting that is more destructive for Iran. Other people, again, want to press their advantage right now. But I would say, by and large, yes, it is
the IRGC that is calling the shots, and not the political leadership.
SOARES: And we've seen the impact this is having right around the world. Oil prices surging, flights being cancelled now because airlines are
running out of fuel. This is something we're going to do just after we finish our interview.
What is your sense, you travel a lot, you're based a lot in the Gulf, of what you are hearing from some of these Gulf countries? Because from where
we stand, they haven't really said much publicly. They've taken a more defensive position. What are you hearing behind closed doors?
CARLSTROM: They've been on a roller coaster the past few months, the Gulf countries. They didn't want this war to start in the first place. It
started. They were attacked thousands of times by the Iranians. And at that point, many of them became quite hawkish. And they were urging Donald Trump
to keep going, to finish the job, as they said.
Now, that the ceasefire has taken hold, they've shifted position again. They don't want the war to resume, because they're worried that Trump will
make good on these threats to attack Iranian power plants. Iran will retaliate against their critical infrastructure, and the economic costs
will be enormous. So, they don't want a resumed war. But they're also very nervous about what might come out of a diplomatic agreement. Because it
won't address the issues that matter to them.
If this is mostly a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran, it will do nothing to limit Iran's missile program, its drones, the things that Iran
is now using to attack Gulf states. So, they're worried about everything at the moment, and they feel like they're bystanders.
SOARES: And so, diplomatically, are they whispering in President Trump's ears? I know, of course, Pakistan are the main mediators. But what are you
hearing in terms of the diplomatic pressure, what is being said? Of course, President Trump has huge, strong ties with a lot of the Gulf countries.
CARLSTROM: They're trying to use their influence with Trump. And I think there's a bit of frustration in the Gulf. They all worked very hard to
court Donald Trump before he was elected, after he was elected. Some of these countries have personally enriched him or his family, Qatar gifted an
airplane to him.
SOARES: Oh, we remember that.
CARLSTROM: So, they feel like they have really worked to build ties. And they feel like their concerns aren't getting a fair hearing in the White
House right now. You know, they have asked over the past two months for more interceptors, for help with air defense. And they don't feel like
they're getting that from the Americans. They don't feel like their concerns about a possible diplomatic agreement are being heard. So, there
is a growing level of frustration now with the Trump administration and the Gulf.
[14:40:00]
SOARES: And very quickly, we are running out of time. It's a question that our team -- my team was discussing earlier today, is who's winning out of
all of this? I know you said who's got the leverage, but who's winning? I was talking about Ukraine with the foreign minister earlier today. Is it
Russia winning? Is it China winning? Who's winning right now?
CARLSTROM: Ask me again in a month or six months and I might have an answer. It's really too early to tell at this point. We don't know.
SOARES: Gregg, thanks for coming on.
CARLSTROM: Thank you.
SOARES: Really appreciate it.
CARLSTROM: Thank you.
SOARES: Thank you very much. Gregg Carlstrom. Now, as Europe struggles to import oil through the Strait of Hormuz and fuel costs around the world
skyrocket, we were just talking about Germany's Lufthansa airline group said it's cutting 20,000 short-haul flights through October and is
preparing for the possibility of jet fuel shortages and potential rationing. And U.S.-based United Airlines reports fare increases of up to
20 percent for the U.S. busy travel season, despite the impact, of course, on your wallet. United says passengers so far are willing to pay more.
Pauline Newton joins us. And, Paula, I can tell you the prices are already soaring. I was looking at prices of flights of going to take my kids back
home to Portugal, and it was hard. It was hard to look at these figures. And this is the concern, right? Give us a sense of what airlines are
saying.
PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Isa, you took the words right out of my mouth because so many of us have been going online, right, ahead of that
important summer season. And there is a lot of sticker shock.
And unfortunately, the message from these airlines is hire for longer. And the reason is that they see the demand there, of course, Isa, as you just
quoted United as saying, saying, look, demand is strong. People are still taking those vacations or need to get to places that you simply cannot
drive or take public transportation. And for that reason, it seems that consumers will be paying these prices.
Now, at issue here, though, Isa, is an issue of capacity, not just of jet fuel, which is the immediate problem, which may turn into a long-term
problem, but also the fact that, look, in terms of consumers, there are a limited amount of airplanes, a limited amount of airports, a limited amount
of airline slots, all of that now exacerbated by the high cost of jet fuel. And I think you mentioned an interesting word there.
You know, you and I are dealing with trying to book family vacations, and we have sticker shock. Once we start rationing, if that happens, and the
warnings are there about having to ration jet fuel, that is going to get incredibly serious. I think it caught a lot of people by surprise that
Lufthansa is canceling so many short haul flights so quickly, but also United also warning today that, look, the longer this goes on, even in
North America, they cannot rule out having to ration jet fuel. And they point out, right, yes, we might be insulated on one continent, that
airplane goes to another continent and needs that fuel, needs to refuel there. So, we're all in this together, if that's any consolation.
SOARES: Indeed. And I remember, Paula, the International Energy Agency reported this, was it last week or the week before, basically saying that
they're going to run out of jet fuel in weeks. So, what are you hearing and what is Europe doing to try and combat this? Because I know you spoke to
the E.U. Energy Commissioner. What -- how stark was the message?
NEWTON: And you used the right word, stark, blunt and really not a lot of levers to pull here, Isa, and that is the issue. I want to remind you that
they announced this morning something called Accelerate E.U. They are opening up what they call a fuel observatory in order to really gauge where
the jet fuel is. And that includes other supplies. They're working hard on even things like energy storage to get ready for energy supplies going into
the winter.
But listen to this, Isa. Not only did he say, tell us that, in fact, the shock will be like having the '70s oil shock and the Ukraine war shock
combined. But listen to what he said after that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAN JORGENSEN, E.U. ENERGY COMMISSIONER: If indeed this situation continues and the duration of the crisis will be very, very long, then it
will affect not only the energy sector. We are already starting to see effects in other sectors, fertilizers, for instance, so affecting our food
production, semiconductors and other things that we need, technology that we need for production of many, many goods in our society.
So, what I really fear is that this will lead to an economic crisis. And by the way, if that happens, then that's not isolated to Europe. This will be
a global economic crisis that none of us wish for.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NEWTON: Startling, isn't it, Isa? And listen, for those of us lucky enough to be able to afford a family vacation, the advice is book now. From my
family to yours, Isa, book now.
SOARES: I should have booked last year. You know that Max Foster books a year in advance. That's how organized he is.
NEWTON: But he's better at everything than us, Isa.
SOARES: I know.
NEWTON: So, we'll just leave it there.
SOARES: Well, not everything. Let's not give him that. Not everything, OK? Paula, good to see you. Thanks very much.
And still to come tonight, the countdown is on for this year's World Cup. Now, just 50 days away, we'll have a preview next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:45:00]
SOARES: Well, excitement is building for this year's World Cup. We are now exactly 50 days out to the start of this year's championship. Hosting
responsibilities are actually divided across three countries this time instead of just one, with matches scheduled in Mexico, in the U.S., as well
as Canada. 48 teams will play. That's up from traditional 32 teams.
Our Patrick Snell joins me now. And Patrick, lots of excitement. The question is, can we afford any of these ticket prices?
PATRICK SNELL, CNN WORLD SPORT: Isa, that's a great question. Look, this is a historic World Cup on so many levels. First time three countries are
hosting it. A record 48 teams. And I have to say, historic record pricing as well. And no question, footy fans need very deep pockets for this World
Cup over here in North America.
And let's look at the final itself on July the 19th in New Jersey. We looked earlier on some resale websites. The cheapest match tickets
currently for that final are over a staggering $10,000. Early on Wednesday, a flurry of activity. FIFA's last-minute sales phase reopening with tickets
for all 104 matches available.
Now, important to note that FIFA does say more than 5 million tickets have already been sold out of an expected total of just over 6 million. But
there has been, just for context here, he said there has been criticism now for many months over ticket pricing. Lawmakers here in America last month
calling for prices to be lowered.
And remember, late last year, just for balance, the sports governing body did introduce a small number, I will say, of $60, what they call supporter
entry-tier tickets, trying to make the tournament affordable for fans. But you can be sure for the majority of the group stage matches, you can expect
to pay hundreds of dollars, again, for the cheapest tickets.
And how about just getting to the venues as well? This was in the news late last week. The stadium that's going to be hosting the final in New Jersey,
the MetLife Stadium, supporters just trying to get to that one from New York City. They have to pay now $150 for a round-trip train fare. Keep in
mind, that's nearly 12 times the regular fare of just under $13. FIFA say it shouldn't cover the transit costs, noting that the agreement signed with
World Cup host cities back in 2018 call for free transportation.
Where I am right now, though I will say here in Atlanta, Isa, other World Cup cities, including here in Atlanta, they are keeping. Thankfully,
they're keeping the transit fares unchanged. Atlanta is going to be staying at $2.50, L.A., $1.75. But big concern over not just the prices to get into
the matches, but the prices to get to the matches. Back to you.
[14:50:00]
SOARES: $150. That is absolutely shocking. Patrick, appreciate it. Good to see you, my friend. Patrick Snell there for us.
And still to come tonight, our chief climate correspondent is on top of the world. And no, that's not really a figure of speech. We mark eight-day --
day eight, really, by investigating -- Earth Day by investigating the vanishing sea ice in the Arctic.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: Well, today is Earth Day and it comes with a warning signal from the top of the planet. The end of winter is when sea ice in the Arctic is
at its maximum. But when scientists measured last month, there was a lot less of it than there should have been, really. The area covered by sea ice
was the smallest, in fact, on record, with about half a million square miles of ice missing. That's more than a million square kilometers and an
area twice the size of Texas.
Just to put that in context for you, our chief climate correspondent Bill Weir has gone all the way to Svalbard, Norway, to find out more about
vanishing sea ice. And you are on a boat, stunning location. Give us a sense, Bill, good to see you, of what you are seeing. And we were talking
about the shrinking sea ice. Put that into perspective for us.
BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: I certainly will, because it affects every form of life up here, especially human. But we're on board,
actually, a Swedish flag vessel called the Freya, run by an outfit called Secret Atlas that leads science and conservation-based tourism.
And we're sailing up past Svalbard, going north. We came up here to try to see the pack ice that we know is shrinking, but we may not make it. We
might not have enough time to get to it. We're actually going to try to hide from the weather here shortly.
But we've spent the last couple of days looking at disappearing glaciers up here, talking to locals, understanding how it affects everything, from the
infrastructure of the towns. The spring thaw came a month early to Longyearbyen, the main city here in Svalbard, which means dogsleds and
snowmobiles for tourists are parked in the mud, and all they can offer are boat rides.
It means polar bears have adapted to hunting reindeer instead of seals, because there's no sea ice to hold the seals anymore. And they can only
adapt to that so far before there's a limit to it, because the changes are happening really too fast for things.
[14:55:00]
But then there is the geopolitical changes up here. After Russia invaded Crimea, they were expelled from the Arctic League of Nations. Since Donald
Trump pulled the United States out of climate science, with almost a hostility towards the idea of it, 50 percent of the Arctic is not
represented as they meet, as these nations meet.
I went to New Oslo yesterday, just as this amazing former coal mining town that is now full of scientists from around the world, Europe, Asia, many of
them saying how depressing it is to watch the politics of the day and these two major powers, Russia and the United States, not show any interest in
keeping the science going, measuring these changes, everything from black carbon on snowfall to what's happening deep, how ecosystems are changing up
here. They need to focus on that to understand what's going to happen for the rest of the world.
Because while the Arctic is heating up a lot faster than the rest of the planet, Svalbard in particular is heating up even faster. So, this is sort
of a glimpse into the future, Isa, of how these changes, they're economic, they're social, they're geopolitical, and they're coming for the whole
planet, not just up here.
SOARES: Multiple levels of pressure right there in action. Bill, appreciated a fantastic location to retell the story Svalbard for us in
Norway. Thank you very much indeed. That's our chief climate correspondent.
That does it for this hour. Do stay right here. "What We Know" with Max Foster is up next. I'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:00:00]
END
