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Isa Soares Tonight
CNN Reporting Suggests that Iran's Military is Rebuilding Much Faster Than Expected as the U.S. Shows Pessimism About the Prospects of a Deal. Anger, Fear, as Well as Frustration Boil Over in the DRC as the Ebola Outbreak Continues to Claim Lives. U.S. Floats the Possibility of Regime Change in Cuba Once Again as it Positions a Carrier Strike Group in the Region. Rubio Heads to Sweden to Attend NATO FM Meeting; Estonia: Russians "Losing More Men Than They Can Recruit"; Tensions Between U.S. And Israel Over Iran War; U.S. Official: Trump, Netanyahu Hold Tense Phone Call; Schumer Speaks After GOP Immigration Plan Derailed. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired May 21, 2026 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[14:00:00]
ISA SOARES, HOST, ISA SOARES TONIGHT: A very warm welcome to the show, everyone, I'm Isa Soares. Tonight, new CNN reporting suggests that Iran's
military is rebuilding much faster than expected as the U.S. shows pessimism about the prospects of a deal.
Then anger, fear, as well as frustration boil over in the DRC as the Ebola outbreak there continues to claim lives. We'll have the latest on the
efforts to contain the virus. Plus, the U.S. floats the possibility of regime change in Cuba once again as it positions a carrier strike group in
the region.
We'll be live from Havana for you in just a few moments. We do begin the hour with new U.S. Intelligence that Iran is rapidly rebuilding its
military machine. Sources telling CNN, Iran has restarted its drone production during the ceasefire, meaning it would have full drone attack
capability in just six months.
This, as we learn of a tense call between the U.S. President and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A U.S. official says the two allies are
split over their moves as Donald Trump waffles on if he wants to restart the war or keep negotiating.
An Israeli source says Benjamin Netanyahu is skeptical the U.S. can reach a deal because Iran has refused to give up its enriched uranium. They say the
Israeli leader is pushing for more attacks. We'll get more on that in just a moment.
Joining us now, Natasha Bertrand brought the reporting on Iran rebuilding its military, and joins us this hour from Washington. As you can see there,
Jeremy Diamond is following developments for us from Tel Aviv.
Natasha, let me start with you. Just bring us up-to-date on this. I mean, how advanced or far on is Iran's military's capabilities? Be it missiles,
be it drones. And adding to that, Natasha, where is Iran getting the components for this hardware?
NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, when it comes to drones, for example, which Iran makes extensive use of. What we're told
is that U.S. Intelligence estimates have found that Iran has been able to reconstitute its production of these drones much faster than the U.S.
Intelligence community originally anticipated.
They would -- with one official putting estimates at about six months for them to fully reconstitute their drone program. That is very significant,
of course, because, as I said, the drones that Iran has been using have been extremely lethal, particularly when it comes to attacks on U.S. forces
and facilities across the region.
And then when it comes to, for example, their reconstitution of their missile capabilities, that has also gone faster than the U.S. predicted.
And they're primarily getting their components, according to our sources from China, missile components, including cruise missile components.
And that is something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also alluded to in an interview last week with "60 Minutes". So, the Russians
and the Chinese were told, have been instrumental in getting the Iranians additional components and dual-use technology for them to reconstitute
their industrial base and their industrial -- defense industrial capacity.
But at the same time, you know, this all really contradicts something that the U.S. Central Command chief told lawmakers earlier this week, which is
that it's going to take years for Iran to rebuild its capabilities. They are still digging out missile launchers.
They are still being able to access a lot of the sites that have been attacked by the United States. And so, that continues to pose a significant
threat, and it's something that officials are, of course, concerned about.
SOARES: Stay with us, Natasha. Let me just go to Jeremy in Jerusalem. I want to know more, Jeremy, and our viewers, I'm sure will do too, about
this tense conversation that we were just mentioning there between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
You and I have discussed this previously. We know -- we've spoken about the fact that the Prime Minister has been an advocate for kind of a more
aggressive approach in dealing with Tehran. Is this where the frustration lies? What are you hearing?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yes, without a doubt. I mean, listen, basically, since the moment that the ceasefire came into existence
and the Israeli Prime Minister was kind of forced to go along with it, somewhat reluctantly, he has quietly, you know, hoped that the war would
resume.
[14:05:00]
That President Trump would realize that this diplomacy with Iran is a dead- end. He has been very cautious about how he has talked about this issue publicly, not openly advocating for a return to war, but making clear, as
he did in that "CBS" interview a couple of weeks ago, that he, you know, doesn't believe that the war is over, that all of the objectives haven't
yet been accomplished.
But in this latest conversation that took place on Tuesday between the President and the Israeli Prime Minister, it seems like many of those
frustrations boiled over in particular because the Israeli Prime Minister had been led to believe that the United States would likely be resuming
strikes against Iran this week.
And when President Trump made a 180 from that, the Israeli Prime Minister on this phone call told President Trump according to our sources, that
delaying this attack was a mistake. He urged him to move forward with attacks on Iran and to resume military operations.
Another Israeli source told me that there's -- has been a strong desire in the upper echelons of Israel's government to restart this war, and said
that following this call between the two leaders, there was mounting frustration among Israeli officials that President Trump is continuing to
allow what they see as kind of Iranian diplomatic foot-dragging.
There is also concern among Israeli officials that President Trump could make a bad deal, one that doesn't achieve all of Israel's objectives in
this war. But we've heard President Trump just yesterday make clear that he believes that Netanyahu will do whatever he -- I want him to do. That was
the quote from the President of the United States yesterday talking about - -
SOARES: Yes --
DIAMOND: His Israeli ally.
SOARES: I want to go back to Natasha and, of course, her reporting on Iran rebuilding its military industrial base. And our viewers would know,
Natasha, that we've heard repeatedly from the President saying, you know, there, talking about Iran.
The army is gone, the Navy is gone, their Air Force is wiped out. You know, they completely decimated Iran. I want to play what the President said
earlier today. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz. As you know, with our blockade, the blockade has been 100
percent effective. Nobody has been able to get through.
It's like a steel wall. It's our Navy. We have the greatest military anywhere in the world. We wiped out their Navy, we wiped out their Air --
but I think they're down to about, I would say we knocked out 85 percent of their missile capacity.
We -- it's very hard for them now to build missiles, to build drones. We have great drone technology, anti-drone technology now that, frankly, we
didn't have even two months ago. We have unbelievable drone technology.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: I wonder, Natasha, whether this U.S. Intel that you're reporting on is raising questions about claims, not just that claim, but previous
claims from the President that the strikes have degraded Iran's military. What questions are being asked at this hour?
BERTRAND: Yes, there's no doubt that the massive military campaign degraded their capabilities. I mean, look, it took out --
SOARES: Yes --
BERTRAND: A lot of missile launchers. It took out a lot of their capacity to rebuild. But they have proven a lot more resilient, I think, than the
U.S. Intelligence community initially believed. And the question is whether it has actually significantly eroded their military capability in the
longer-term.
In the shorter-term, you know, a matter of months, yes, it has impacted their ability to launch missiles and drones. But in the medium to long-
term, the question of whether they have been able to reconstitute quickly because of help from adversaries, for example, that is a very significant
one.
And it is one, of course, that, you know, President Trump did not necessarily talk to President -- Chinese President Xi Jinping about last
week when he was in Beijing. It's kind of, you know, a situation where everyone's kind of turning a blind eye to it.
But at the same time, the Iranians are proving to be extremely stubborn when it comes to whether or not they want to come to some kind of deal. And
so, it seems as though, at least, for now, everyone is kind of at a stalemate and the Iranians maintain a significant arsenal.
SOARES: They're certainly dragging their feet or playing the long game or whichever term you want to use in this. Let me just go back to Jeremy,
because while I have you here, Jeremy, it's a story we brought to our viewers' attention yesterday.
I want to get kind of the reaction on the ground where you are to this video of far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. There has been -- that
we've seen circulated, we've reported on not taunting kind of detained Gaza Flotilla activists.
We have seen international backlash. In fact, in the last hour, Christiane Amanpour spoke to the Spanish Foreign Minister, and she asked him whether
the criticism that we've seen from Netanyahu and from the Israeli Foreign Minister, whether they -- whether he bought that. Have a listen to his
response.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSE MANUEL ALBARES, FOREIGN MINISTER, SPAIN: In any democracy, a minister could act and behave in that way. The next minute, he wouldn't be a
Minister anymore. And that's a common responsibility of the Israeli government.
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And these actions must stop. It's not the first time that we see these sorts of assaults in international waters, where no Israeli agent has
jurisdiction on any of our citizens.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: What has been the reaction where you are to this, Jeremy?
DIAMOND: Well, there certainly has been very strong condemnation of this video posted by the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir,
including from the Israeli Prime Minister and other senior ministers in this government.
The Prime Minister said that while Israel has a right to prevent these flotillas from reaching Gaza. He said that however that Minister Ben-Gvir
dealt with these activists in a way that was quote, "not in-line with Israel's values and norms."
But as many have pointed out, it is the Israeli Prime Minister who appointed Itamar Ben-Gvir not only to a ministerial position in his
government, but to the position of National Security Minister overseeing Israel's police and prison system, and he has chosen to keep Ben-Gvir in
this position.
Despite these incidents and numerous other extremely controversial incidents in which Ben-Gvir has been involved in, there was no mention in
the Prime Minister's statement as well to this notion of international law of, you know, many countries that have said that Israel is violating
international law by boarding these ships in international waters and detaining foreign individuals at -- during those boardings.
But I think it's also important to kind of zoom out here and think about what this video shows and the extent to which it really just scratches the
surface of what is happening in Israel's prison systems. Because Itamar Ben-Gvir has spent the last two-plus years boasting about the extent to
which he is worsening conditions for Palestinian prisoners, in particular, in Israel's prison system.
Many of whom have yet to be charged with any crime whatsoever, nor faced a trial. We, of course, recently brought our viewers the story of Ali
Samoudi; a Palestinian journalist who lost more than --
SOARES: Yes --
DIAMOND: Half, you know, about half his weight while he was in prison for a year. And that is just one of numerous stories of mistreatment and
allegations of abuse of human -- you know, basic human rights that many other prisoners who don't have the same kind of high profile as these
foreign activists have been enduring.
SOARES: Yes, remember that piece, that reporting that we played on the show. Jeremy, I really appreciate it, Natasha Bertrand as well. Thank you
to you both. Well, tensions are flaring in the Democratic Republic of Congo as the country faces an Ebola crisis.
Angry residents threw projectiles causing a blaze, as you can see there at a hospital for treating Ebola patients. One local official telling CNN
misinformation about the virus is spreading among communities, saying many believe Ebola is a lie.
Today's violence erupting when the relatives of a young man who died from the virus tried to take his body by force. Health authorities in the DRC
say at least, 148 people are thought to have died in this outbreak. So far, only 51 cases have officially -- been officially confirmed, but hundreds
more are suspected.
Medical workers, meantime, are racing to prepare an isolation site with just the bare minimum of supplies. As you can see here, a toilet has been
made using just a garden chair. The World Health Organization maintains that while the outbreak poses a high risk at a local level, so far it is
not a global threat.
Our Larry Madowo has been following the story right from the beginning and joins me now from Nairobi, Kenya. And, Larry, I mean, clearly, people are
deeply anxious and nervous about their loved ones. What more are you learning about this fire?
LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This incident at Wampara General Hospital in the northeast of DRC exposes the problem with community trust that
authorities have to deal with in an Ebola outbreak. In this case, family members of a young man believed to have died of Ebola demanded his body
back.
They were -- tried to forcibly retrieve his body and that didn't work out. Then it degenerated into this protest. They set two tents on fire. These
tents were treating six other suspected Ebola patients that have been moved to the main hospital.
But police had to fire tear-gas and use some live rounds, basically warning shots in the air just to try and disperse this crowd to make sure that this
situation does not degenerate, and all the people essentially take the bodies of the people who are there, or they -- or released the patients.
This is one eyewitness who was there when it happened.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I'm at Wampara Hospital. We were locked down here. Look at the protesters. They're angry. They're setting
fire to the tents of Ebola patients because they want to forcibly retrieve the bodies.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADOWO: That man is a local politician. And he told CNN that some people don't just believe that Ebola is a lie.
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They think it's a white man's disease, and they don't understand why authorities are hanging on to the bodies of the dead. They want to bury
them in dignity like they would do under local customs, so they don't like to see the bodies getting disinfected.
The PPE, these people in kind of spacesuits burying their dead. And that's why you see this tension. Isa.
SOARES: Yes, important that the virus has communicated effectively. Clearly, that is not the case. Thank you very much, Larry, appreciate it.
Well, the Trump administration is keeping the heat on Cuba. There is word that a U.S. aircraft carrier and other warships have arrived in the
Caribbean, not far from Cuba.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about the possibility of regime change. Rubio said the U.S. prefers diplomatic negotiations, but he
did not rule out military action.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE, UNITED STATES: Cuba not only has weapons that they've acquired from Russia and China over the years, but they also
host Russia and Chinese Intelligence presence in their country, not far from where we're standing right now. So, Cuba has always posed a national
security threat to the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Well, Rubio's comments come one day after the U.S. indicted Cuba's former leader, Raul Castro on charges that include murder. China voiced
criticism of the indictment, saying the U.S. needs to stop threatening Cuba and abusing the judicial process.
But the indictment is incredibly popular, as you can imagine, among the Cuban expat community in Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We have the perfect administration to make a definitive decision, because you don't negotiate with communists.
Communists have no way of dialoging other than with arms. The proof is in Venezuela and the proof is in Iran. With communists, you always have to
deal with them as they act themselves to the extreme.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): They have been the ones who have sown terror in the world. They are the main violators of all the rights of
United Nations agreements. And now, they want to present themselves as if they are the victims.
No, they are not a constitutional government. They are outlaws. They are criminals who took over the nation and have turned it to dust.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Let's go to Cuba now in Havana and speak to our Patrick Oppmann. And Patrick, I was listening to the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,
before he boarded a plane for NATO summit. And he said that Cuba, from what he understands, had accepted the U.S. offer of $100 million in aid, which,
from what I can remember from our conversation though a couple of days ago, it came with strings attached. What are you hearing on that front?
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lots of strings, I don't think the check is in the mail, at least not yet. So, you know, let's back up. You
know, as the energy embargo blockade is underway, of course, that has done major damage to this economy.
Of course, Marco Rubio would say the Cuban government is responsible for the disaster that this economy has become. The Cuban government would argue
with that. But there is this offer of aid, aid that would go through the Catholic Church, perhaps other NGOs would not go directly to the Cuban
government, but the Cuban people.
Marco Rubio says that if the aid went to the Cuban government, that it would be stolen. And so, the Cuban government perhaps put in a position
where they can't turn down those offer has said yes. If it's a genuine offer -- genuine offer, we would accept that.
Are they going to accept aid a day after their former leader, the most important figure on this island, is put under indictment, and there's now
threats that he could be extradited, military action to remove him from this country.
You know, it's tough to see that. But neither side wants to say that they are going to be the ones. They're the ones responsible for killing this
offer of aid. I would not expect it to arrive any time soon. That's how high tensions are at this moment.
SOARES: And while the pressure, as we have seen, intensifies on Cuba, give us a sense, just remind our viewers, Patrick, because I think this is so
important. Just the mood on the ground. I know people are weary, people are exhausted.
OPPMANN: Absolutely, just the day-to-day of living here gets harder by the day. And this is an incredibly resilient people we are talking about. But
listen, you know, you might have an hour or two of power in your house, electricity every day.
So then, you have to do all the things you normally would do over 24 hours in that space of time, which you don't know when it will be. It might be in
the middle of the night, you get up and you realize there's power on, and you rush around and do your cooking and your washing and things like that.
You're sending your kids to school, if you're lucky and they're going to school -- to schools where there is no power and they don't even have a fan
to put on them, much less really teach them very much. So, everything has just become much more complicated.
Transportation is down to a minimum with that oil blockade and people are exhausted. And that's when you start to hear people say, you know, let's
just get this over with. There is going to be a demonstration carried out by the government in front of the U.S. Embassy tomorrow.
People angry that Raul Castro is under indictment. But most people here, they just say that this situation now has stretched on to the point where
it is unlivable. It is intolerable.
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And whichever government solves it for them, that is what they would support. But they simply don't want to continue down this road of living
whether or not there's a war going on, living like it is a time of war, because that is really increasingly what it feels like.
SOARES: Yes, Marco Rubio calling today, Cuba, a failed state. Great to see you, Patrick, as always. Thank you. And we have some news coming in to us.
The Trump administration's push for a $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund has derailed plans by Republican senators to pass a major immigration
package -- package, pardon me.
Senators say the Justice Department fund blindsiding them. Joining us now, Manu Raju. Manu, you broke this story. Just bring us up-to-date with the
very latest.
MANU RAJU, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, a major revolt by the Senate Republicans against the White House. Probably the biggest revolt
that Donald Trump has seen in his second term in office in the aftermath of this decision announced by the Justice Department, to try to put forward
this settlement fund of $1.8 billion to people who say that they have been aggrieved, who have been investigated by the Biden Justice Department.
And the questions that perhaps the people who came into this building on January 6th, 2021, the rioters, the people who were convicted of assaulting
police, that they could be eligible for taxpayer money as part of this larger settlement fund.
That prompted major backlash on Capitol Hill. And it came at a time in which Republicans are trying to pass a separate bill together. One bill for
tens of billions of dollars for immigration enforcement, for ICE, for Customs and Border Protection, something the big priority of the President,
who wanted this bill passed by June 1st.
But the demand -- but the proposal that came out from the administration to put together this settlement fund caused enormous concern. In fact, the
attorney -- the acting Attorney General, Todd Blanche, came to Capitol Hill today to try to convince Republican senators to come along with this idea.
But one Republican senator after another, I'm told, in a very tense private meeting, objected to it and called for changes to it and threatened to vote
against this immigration bill unless there were changes made or if it was dropped altogether.
And because of this disagreement, because Republicans are at odds, and because the margins in the House and the Senate are so narrow right now,
the Republican leaders decided to scrap that immigration bill altogether, punt it into June as they head home now for a Memorial Day recess, gone all
of next week.
And now, Donald Trump will not get his immigration bill to his desk by his self-imposed June 1st deadline. All because of this demand over this
compensation fund that Republican --
SOARES: Yes --
RAJU: Senators say they cannot agree to. In addition to money for his new ballroom at the White House, Republicans were pushing back on that. The
White House wanted that to be part of this bill, meaning that the President's agenda derailed for now, Isa.
SOARES: And I haven't seen as of yet, Manu, I haven't seen any reaction from the President. But look, on the show, we have been talking pretty much
all week about Trump's control over the Republican Party. Just why are Republicans bulking at this now? I mean, how unusual is this?
RAJU: Well, there's a lot of tension within the ranks between the White House and Republicans here, because the interests are diverging at this
moment. Many of them are very much concerned about their own re-election chances in November, and are worried about being tied to this $1.8 billion
fund hurting them in their re-elections, hurting them in their re-elections if they support money for the ballroom.
At a time when Republicans are -- voters are concerned about the economy, about affordability, about cost-of-living issues. That's what Republicans
want to focus on.
The President has a totally different mindset when it comes to those issues, and he's also very much angered many Republicans here by taking out
one Republican Senator, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost his primary on Saturday after the President came out in opposition to him.
Now, Cassidy is one of those members who are pushing back against President Trump's agenda on those key items and others as well, concerned about the
President's decision to intervene in Texas behind a challenger to the incumbent, Senator John Cornyn.
All of which is leading to major tension within the ranks at a time when the party is trying to be united ahead of what is appearing to be a very
difficult midterm election season.
SOARES: Yes, Manu --
RAJU: Isa --
SOARES: Stay with us. We do have sound from Todd Blanche. I think we do have it. Let's listen to him. I think he was defending it. Have a listen to
this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TODD BLANCHE, ACTING U.S. ATTORNEY GENERAL: One of the factors the commissioners have to consider is what the claimant did, the claimant's
conduct, OK? So, in the hypothetical you just described, the claimant would have to say, I assaulted a cop and I want money.
So, whether the commissioners will give that person money, that claimant, it's up to them. But that's one of the factors they have to consider.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Now, this was Todd Blanche speaking to our Paula Reid there. From what I understand, Manu, and correct me if I'm wrong here, I'm just trying
to catch up on this. This fund was an agreement, right? Between Trump and the DOJ.
[14:25:00]
Does this -- does this create or leave a role for Congress to play here?
RAJU: Yes, I mean, that's the big question here. Exactly why this fund was created. Who has oversight over it, and how it will be actually rolled out?
What Todd Blanche was indicating there was that this would be overseen by a number of people, part of a five-person commission who would be essentially
appointed by the Justice Department, by the Trump administration themselves to decide the guardrails for this program, who gets the money and the like.
So, that's the question. Who would oversee that beyond the Trump administration because Congress, they believe that they should have some
role in this because it's Congress that has the purse strings over spending federal dollars.
And so, that's raised a lot of concern here within the ranks. So, this plan does not have any congressional oversight, does not have any judicial
oversight, the way it came together. Because you're right, it was a settlement between the Trump administration -- between Trump and his own
administration after a lawsuit he filed after his tax returns were leaked.
They said that this was the result of that settlement there. So, it just has a lot of people saying that. It appears that -- this appears to benefit
only the President's allies and virtually nobody else. The President's team says that anybody could apply for this money, but that did not seem to
convince many of these Republican skeptics here in the capitol. Isa --
SOARES: Interesting, I'm keeping an eye to see whether we get any reaction from the President. Great reporting, Manu, good to see you. Manu Raju there
for us. And still to come tonight, a deadly drone strike in occupied territory could signal a new Ukrainian strategy to stop Russian advances.
And we'll hear from Estonia's top Intel official as NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Sweden. Both those stories after this very short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: Welcome back. Ukraine says its attack on a Russian drone pilot training camp in the occupied Donetsk region killed at least, 66 people.
The death toll includes cadets and an instructor. The strike appears to be part of a strategy by Kyiv to slow down Russian supply lines, and follows
Ukraine's deadly drone attack near Moscow if you remember last weekend.
Well, the war in Ukraine and U.S. threats of banning NATO are major concerns, as member states, Foreign Ministers meet Friday in Sweden. U.S.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as I was mentioning earlier, left today for the summit.
He is expected to keep pushing allies to spend more on their own defense. Just days after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance remember, berated Europe to
take more ownership. Another issue for NATO drones flying into NATO airspace.
The alliance reports a series of incidents in the Baltic region involving suspected Ukrainian drones. A NATO fighter jet shot down one of them over
Estonia. There have also been Russian drone incidents, if you remember, in the Baltic in the past.
Our Sebastian Shukla joins me now from Berlin. And, Seb, we heard today from Secretary Rubin before, of course, he departed for this meeting, and
he mentioned there will be a discussion of a greater burden sharing. I mean, what does that really mean in real terms? And speak also to the
timing of this, because we have seen U.S. troops being pulled from Germany as well as Poland, which is a huge concern for many European leaders.
SEBASTIAN SHUKLA, CNN PRODUCER: Yes, Isa, there's no shortage of things for the ministers to be able to be meeting and to talk about. And the
message, this idea of burden sharing that Secretary Rubio said as he boarded that plane, it's not really new either. It's a message that's been
emanating from the White House ever since Donald Trump returned in the beginning of his second administration, and they've doubled down on that.
The message has been very clear that the era of Pax Americana in Europe is ending and that the onus must now be on the Europeans to step up and be
able to defend themselves. The Europeans will say that they have made great strides in order to increase defense spending, lots of them aiming now to
try and meet a 5 percent of NATO defense spending. They are increasing their preparedness and militaries in order to be able to fend off any
potential attack or aggression that emanates from the east.
But lots of this, Isa, is not really new. And as you detailed, there are lots of questions that still remain on the table. There is uncertainty here
in Germany in particular. Those 5,000 troops, where are they going? What does that mean for the German deterrent here, the message it sends out to
enemies about the fallibilities of NATO? Are those 4,000 troops that were going to be in Poland rotated somewhere else, or are they just permanently
on ice?
Now, Isa, it's very unclear, but we should hopefully start to get an idea about what those plans may be. And the ministers will be searching for
questions from the U.S.
SOARES: No doubt they're looking for clarity in that. And I imagine, as well said, they'll be looking for some sort of clarity on Iran and where
the war goes from here, what the strategy is, given, of course, the impact we have seen with the Strait of Hormuz.
But let's talk about the other war. Just before we came to you, we talked about Ukraine. What commitments are European leaders looking for from the
U.S. foreign ministers say? I know you spoke to the Estonian intelligence chief. Just give us a sense of what he told you.
SHUKLA: Yes. I think for the Europeans, with the war in Iran, the focus has been trying to remind the U.S. government that there is a major land
war in Europe that needs to be resolved and that is still ongoing. It may not have been the focus for a little while, but nevertheless, the war of
attrition and death still continues every day. And the Europeans have gone to great lengths to try to keep Ukraine on the agenda.
As for the Estonians and what they have been saying to me, their top spy, their intelligence chief, has basically been saying that what they are
picking up now is a shifting sand and a shift in mindset emanating from the Kremlin that could potentially be a boost for Europe. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAUPO ROSIN, DIRECTOR GENERAL ESTONIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE: What we have noticed in Russia is a slight change in the overall mood. I do not
hear any more talking about total victory. People recognize that the situation in the Ukrainian battlefield is not going too well for the
Russians.
We are probably at the moment where Russians in four or five months, maybe from now, are maybe not able to negotiate from a position of strength
anymore.
SHUKLA: What is your assessment of the state of the Russian armed forces right now?
ROSIN: They are losing more men in the battlefield than they can recruit under current circumstances. So, if they would like to escalate in Ukraine,
for example, they would need substantially more manpower. And I see here the only option would be partial or some type of forced mobilization.
SHUKLA: Like we saw in September 2022?
ROSIN: For example, I would say technically they could do it, but that would create additional internal stability risks for Kremlin. And we know
that they are very concerned about internal stability.
SHUKLA: Is it possible to quantify what effect that sustained amount of losses is having on the Russian demographic?
ROSIN: They have, let's say, a very strong gap in the needs between, let's say, the workforce needs and availability of the workforce. There is a
serious problem.
[14:35:00]
Another issue regarding manpower is the situation where people who are demobilized. What these people are carrying back home is violence,
instability, psychological problems and crime. And it also is having an impact on the Russian population already.
I really do not see a street revolution at this point. But sometimes such systems are very hollow inside. And if something happens, it will happen
very rapidly and we all will be surprised.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOARES: Very valuable insight there from the Estonian intelligence chief speaking to our Sebastian Shukla there. Thank you to Seb for that.
And still to come on the show tonight, fractures are emerging in US-Israel relations over the war with Iran. We hear from a former Israeli
intelligence official. That is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SOARES: And returning to our top story, sources are telling CNN that Tehran is rebuilding its military much faster than initially estimated and
could have full drone capability again in just six months. All of that based on U.S. intelligence. And this comes as fractures emerge in U.S.-
Israeli relations, as you heard at the top of the show, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump held what sources
say was a tense phone call. Sources say Mr. Netanyahu wants to renew military action.
For more on this, on all these threats, I'm joined now by Danny Citrinowicz. He's a senior fellow at the Israel-based think tank Institute
for National Security Studies. He's also the former head of the Iran branch in Israel's Defense Intelligence Unit. Danny, welcome to the show.
[14:40:00]
Let me first get your thoughts on the reporting from our team, really, in D.C., that -- regarding Iran's military capabilities, and sources telling
CNN that since the ceasefire in April, Iran has basically been rebuilding much of its military at a much faster pace than was first thought. I mean,
what do you make of this? Are you surprised at all by this?
DANNY CITRINOWICZ, SENIOR FELLOW, INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES AND FORMER HEAD OF IRAN BRANCH, IDF INTELLIGENCE: Good evening from Tel
Aviv. No, we cannot be surprised. We are very, very surprised because we had the same thing in the 12-day war. Israel bombed Iran. We thought that
Iran actually had a major problem in rebuilding its capacity, and surprise, surprise, immediately after the war, they rebuilt their capacity almost to
the same position that they were before the war.
We have to remember that Iranians have three things that nobody can take away from them. A, they have the motivation. B, they have the knowledge. We
have to remember that it's indigenous capabilities to build those missiles and see everything is on the ground. So, even if, yes, the U.S. and Israel
attack those facilities, at the end of the day, the Iranians still have the capacity to rebuild them.
So, we have to assume that even if the war will end tomorrow, then eventually Iran will continue to rebuild its capacity. And even if the war
will return tomorrow, they'll still have the capacity to launch missiles and drones towards Israel and the Gulf states.
SOARES: Yes, yes. And, Danny, I'm not sure whether you heard Secretary Marco Rubio today speaking before he left to the NATO Foreign Minister
Summit, because he was talking about, on the tarmac, he was talking about how they've made good progress and basically hoped that the Pakistani talks
with Iran would advance the peace deal.
President Trump, meanwhile, claimed -- just -- I think it was just yesterday, that things with Iran are right on the borderline and that it's
worth giving Iran diplomacy, I should say, a few more days if it saves lives. What is your take on the diplomatic front here? I mean, have any of
the gaps between both sides narrowed at all?
CITRINOWICZ: Well, it's hard to say. Definitely the mediations and the mediators are doing a good job in trying to bridge the gap. There are
substantial gaps. You have to remember that in terms of positions, the Iranians really think that they won the war, and this is why they have no
compromises in terms of the red lines.
So, I mean, looking into the negotiation, definitely they have strict demands. And the U.S. have as well, because the U.S. assumes that Iran is
weakened, and it can dictate some sort of an agreement. So, the gap is there, but I think what is also there is the willingness of both sides not
to return back to war. So, I think it's really, we don't know how things will develop, but it's obvious, seeing President Trump's behavior, that
he's very hesitant to return back to kinetic attacks.
So, I think that we have to wait and see. We're definitely in crucial hours. If agreement will be agreed, then definitely it saves the need to
return back to war. But if not, I think U.S. will have probably no other option than thinking kinetics, because I don't think that the Iranians will
move further from the red lines.
SOARES: And on the kinetic front, I mean, this is something that we've had Prime Minister Netanyahu write. He definitely wants more action much
quicker, and that speaks to some of the frustration that I was hearing from my correspondent in Tel Aviv. And we've got some color from this, right,
this tense conversation, it seems, between the U.S. president and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
I mean, how do you see this, Danny? I mean, does this suggest a sort of battle regarding the direction of the war, or do you think this isn't
normal at this stage?
CITRINOWICZ: I think that we have a real gap between the U.S. and Israel. When you're looking at Israeli behavior and policy, definitely Israel
doesn't want to see any agreement. The negotiation of President Trump with Iran, definitely Israel didn't like that, didn't like even the idea of
moving into some sort of political agreement with the Iranians.
For Israel, no deal is better than a bad deal. And for Israel, every deal with Iran is a bad deal. And Israel is hoping to return back to kinetics,
especially to attack the civilian facilities of the Iranians. So, definitely the countries are not aligned, and I think this really
highlights the tension that we have right now.
Now, I don't know how things will develop into the future, but if really there's going to be an agreement between Iran and the U.S., this is
actually a nightmare for Benjamin Netanyahu, because it's not only that he won't be able to return back to war. It's actually blocking any possibility
of Israel to return back to war in the future. So, this is why I think that he's trying the hardest to make sure that President Trump won't sign a
deal. We have to wait and see how things will develop. Definitely we have to see the U.S. interest, because we're highly dependent on them.
But the bottom line of things, there's no alignment between Israel and the U.S. regarding the question whether to negotiate with Iran.
SOARES: Such an important perspective there from Tel Aviv, from Danny Citrinowicz. Danny, really appreciate you coming on the show. Thank you
very much indeed.
And still to come tonight, newly released documents and cover details around the appointment of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's British trade envoy,
25 years ago. We'll see what the files reveal. Max Foster, we'll join you next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:45:00]
SOARES: I want to take you to Capitol Hill because U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been speaking. I want you to listen in.
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY), U.S. SENATE MINORITY LEADER: I'm pleased to be joined by my colleagues, Senators Durbin, Merkley, Schatz, and Blunt
Rochester. And good afternoon.
So, this afternoon, Republicans, so divided, so dysfunctional, so disorganized, are fleeing Washington. Their majority can't melt down fast
enough, not when Americans' financial situation is melting down every day.
Republicans are in complete disarray. They're at each other's throats, and the American people are suffering for it. Republicans are divided over
things that Americans don't want, but Democrats are united around things that the people do want, for us to lower their costs, reign in the chaos,
fight the corruption that is endemic to this administration.
Republicans have tied themselves up in knots and torn each other to shreds over Trump's brazenly corrupt slush fund for his billionaire cronies and
January 6th insurrectionists. They have soiled their reputation by fighting to fund Trump's billion-dollar ballroom at taxpayer expense. And all the
while, Republicans haven't lifted a finger to lower Americans' costs.
Trapped in a corner by their own president, Republicans have their backs to the wall with no way out, nowhere to hide, no end in sight. The only way
for Republicans to get out of this box is to stop backing the slush fund, stop pushing the ballroom, and as soon as we get back, join Democrats in
fighting to lower Americans' costs on health care, on housing, on power, on child care, and on so much else, and to join us in fighting the corruption
that Trump just revels in.
[14:50:00]
Republicans are in retreat, but Democrats are moving full steam ahead to fight Trump's costs, chaos, corruption. Senator Durbin.
SOARES: You have been listening there to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Capitol Hill calling the government's new anti-weaponization
fund, as he calls, brazenly corrupt slush fund, saying that it's corrupt, basically saying Republicans are divided, dysfunctional and disorganized.
What we have seen is this slush fund is -- pardon me, this anti- weaponization fund, or slush fund, as we've heard from Senator Chuck Schumer say, is so toxic, it's actually derailed, as we brought you at the
top of the show, the Senate Republicans' agenda when it comes to immigration.
For 90 minutes, basically, today, in Washington, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who we brought you a clip from earlier, basically faced
hardcore resistance in a meeting with Senate Republicans trying to basically save this nearly $2 billion fund. And what this fund would do, it
would use taxpayers' money to compensate those that they believe were unfairly prosecuted by the Justice Department. And that basically would
include rioters, the convicted and then later pardoned, for the January 6th on Capitol Hill.
Now, Republicans are speaking out about it, as we heard from Manu Raju -- that Manu Raju -- they're not happy with this anti-weaponization fund. They
are blocking parts of major immigration enforcement legislation. And what we've seen is that they've stopped talking. They've basically gone home for
the memorial holiday recess.
And Republicans, for the first time -- and this is major -- is a major moment for President Trump, as we've heard, a massive loss for President
Trump from our Manu Raju, because we are seeing some voices within the Republican Party not happy, clearly not happy about this anti-weaponization
fund.
We have not heard as of yet from President Trump, but we are starting to see some splits within the GOP, which is important, given what we've seen
all this week and the control and the power that President Trump still wields within the Republican Party.
Senate minority leader there, Chuck Schumer, saying that Republicans are divided, are dysfunctional and that they are disorganized, calling this
anti-weaponization fund brazenly corrupt slush fund. We will get the Republican reaction, more importantly, President Trump's reaction, as soon
as we'll have it.
We're going to take a short break. We will see you, though, on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:55:00]
SOARES: And finally, tonight, a chess tournament in Poland that has made quite the splash. Last weekend, 62 players from around the world took their
matches underwater for the world's largest diving chess contest. I kid you not. Games were played on custom boards anchored to the bottom of the pool,
and each move had to be made within a single breath. After two days of competition, players from Lithuania and Poland became this year's
champions. He is hoping they could celebrate, of course, on dry land. Congrats to them. I will not try that with my kids, that's for sure.
That does it for this hour. Thanks very much for your company. Do stay right here. "What We Know" with Max Foster is up next. I'll see you
tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:00:00]
END
