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In the Arena
Money Madness in Madison; Humanitarian Crisis in Libya
Aired March 01, 2011 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ELIOT SPITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, welcome to the show. I'm Eliot Spitzer.
Tonight everybody is fighting about, you guessed it, money. Budget battles breaking out all over the place. The folks in Washington kicking the can down the road, doing nothing important but in Wisconsin, Governor Scott Walker has made his stand.
Just a few hours ago he announced his budget. And here's how it looks to me -- a war on children. He wants to hack hundreds of millions of dollars from education, our schools, our future -- sure, make the kids pay at the same time you cut capital gains taxes for the rich so they can buy what? Another yacht?
This simply isn't good policy. It's not what we need. Another war on the middle class.
Will and E.D., you're not possibly going to justify this. E.D., come on.
E.D. HILL, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think you're a tad feverish. Because you know what, when I look at it -- Governor Walker's in the right and the assembly Democrats are just looking like they're putting on a huge act.
The senators, of course, aren't even there. If you watched the video today of this budget, you watch the assembly members there in their orange t-shirts -- now the orange t-shirts supposedly symbolize their -- you know, their concern for working families. But the irony is that the majority, vast majority of working families in Wisconsin are not union members.
So who are they siding with? They're trying to put the nonunion families against the union families.
SPITZER: We'll debate this more later. But this isn't about union/nonunion. This is about fairness, sharing the pain, everybody should sacrifice. Kids --
HILL: Exactly --
SPITZER: Kids, working folks, and the wealthy. That's the issue. Fairness. We'll come back to that later.
Will, you're going come to my side, right? You're the rational conservative --
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Don't hope and try to get used to that.
Look, I've made a point of being critical of Washington, D.C. Republicans for having a big fight over nothing. Of threatening to shut down the government for what amounts to pennies on the dollar.
My point is, I'm OK with shutting down the government as long as it's over a big thing. And what Scott Walker is doing in Wisconsin is a big thing. This is the principled line in the sand to draw. I hope he holds firm.
Look, you cut the budget where the money is. And that's where the money is.
SPITZER: Look, I agree with that. We'll have to discuss whether this line in the sand is the right mind or whether this is a principled position at all. But first, you know, let's do something important. Let's bring in one of the major players in the debate.
Joining us now from Madison, Wisconsin, to defend the governor, so we're going to have to give him a hard time, is Republican state Senate majority leader Scott Fitzgerald.
Senator, thanks for coming back.
SCOTT FITZGERALD (R), WISCONSIN STATE MAJORITY LEADER: You bet. Good to be with you.
SPITZER: It's our pleasure. Now you're actually in the state where you work, right? You haven't fled somewhere else yet?
FITZGERALD: No, I'm in Madison. That's right. I'm in -- in Madison.
SPITZER: All right. Well, that's a good start at least. Let me ask you this question. Because it does seem to me it comes down to this issue of fairness. And at the same time the governor's budget is cutting hundreds of millions of dollars from education, and we all know we're in dire straits, you got to cut somewhere and education is a big part of the budget.
But you're also cutting taxes for the wealthy. We all want a tax cut, but is this the moment to cut the capital gains rate, taxes, in Wisconsin? No evidence that's going to create jobs. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you? Isn't there a tension there?
FITZGERALD: To be honest with you, the focus has been on the collective bargaining piece and whether or not the savings that will come from that will offset the deep cuts that did happen today in both education and shared revenue. So that's really what we're focused on.
I mean, we want to make sure that we protect education by allowing them to guarantee these cost savings which I think the governor did today. The other shoe has dropped and he demonstrated that this part was important to the overall budget process. And I think that ultimately that's what we're trying to drive home, is that this is a budget that will put Wisconsin back on the right track fiscally.
SPITZER: Will, go ahead.
CAIN: Yes, Senator Fitzgerald, I'd love to focus in on the nexus there between the education and collective bargaining issues. And it actually comes home for you. Am I right -- your wife is a high school guidance counselor, is that right?
FITZGERALD: Yes, that's right. And she did receive a layoff notice this past week. And there's been a lot of focus on it because I think it's typical of what we're seeing in other areas of the state, that if we don't come up with a solution for these cuts that you are going to see statewide teacher layoffs, along with county workers and municipal workers.
So this is -- this is definitely something that I think will make it much clearer after the governor announced his budget at 4:00 today.
HILL: Senator, I'm not a policy person. I'm just a regular American, and I've got to show up for my job if I want to get paid and keep it. And you've got all these Democratic senators who have simply fled the state, gone over the state line and they're sitting there.
Isn't there a way to force them either to come back or to use the Wisconsin constitution to declare a vacant seat and get on with your work?
FITZGERALD: Well, we're looking at all different options. But I think ultimately it comes down to their own constituencies. Sixty- eight percent of Wisconsinites say the governor has been talking about these senators that have left the state. And I think has put a lot of pressure on them.
Also the senators from other districts have been talking about it. So there's a shift going on right now. And I think, you know, unfortunately for them the public is turning against their ploy right now. I do expect them to come back soon.
SPITZER: You know, Senator, look, I'm not a big fan of senators leaving the state to prevent your getting a quorum to do business. But on the other hand, I wasn't a fan of the Republican U.S. senators in Washington filibustering so critical legislation there couldn't be brought to a vote. Both of these are procedural games. Both of them should be dealt with.
Let's put process aside for a minute. I want to come back to the question I asked you before. Is it fair -- just a basic issue of fairness -- to be cutting hundreds of millions of dollars out of your education budget at the same time you cut the capital gains taxes for the wealthiest folks in Wisconsin?
How do you square those two, you're cutting education and giving money back to the wealthy? Isn't there a tension there? FITZGERALD: Well, ultimately, education will be fine because of these changes to collective bargaining. And on the tax cut side, I mean, we've been doing since January 3rd inauguration tax cut after tax cut, and the reason for that is because we're trying to get the economy moving here.
I mean, we've got a jobless rate that is poor, just like many other states. And as a result of that, we need to really ramp up and get economic development moving, and some of these targeted tax cuts and the capital gains. And some income tax cuts, ultimately, we hope will get Wisconsin's economy moving in the right direction.
SPITZER: Look, Senator, I'm with you when you can afford to make those tax cuts, you do them. But when you've got these huge deficits, you've got to make tough choices. Every governor out there is making the tough choice. I heard Ed Rendell was a good governor out in Pennsylvania, saying this simply isn't the time to do this. It's a time for shared sacrifice. And that isn't what Wisconsin is asking of the wealthier folks.
Let me come back one more time, not to this -- the other day we had a nice conversation but you didn't persuade me that there was any connection between giving up collective bargaining when the union has given you every penny back you've asked for, and then saying to them now you've got to give up your right to collective bargaining.
The public isn't being sold on this. Why don't you just give on that, take the givebacks on salary and benefits and declare it a victory?
FITZGERALD: Because, Eliot, that doesn't get the job done. I mean what we're really looking at is even on the 5.5 and the 12 percent on health, that solves the short-term problem which is between now and the end of June, our current fiscal year, and going into the next biennium. It's $300 million, I mean it just doesn't get it done.
We have to come up with other solutions that go way beyond that. Empower the school boards, empower the mayors, empower the county boards to make these very, very difficult decisions that they're going to have to make in the upcoming months.
SPITZER: Look, Senator, with all due respect, those folks, your teachers and all the other workers you're talking about, are being asked to give up an 8 percent tax-- 8 percent wage cut and they said yes, because they know what it means to participate in the shared sacrifice.
At the same time, you're saying to the wealthy, we're cutting your taxes, at the same time you're saying to the workers you can't even do something that most folks think is a basic American right, which is to negotiate together on things like wages.
I just don't get this conception of that being the social fabric that we believe in. Is that really your vision of equity?
FITZGERALD: Eliot, over the last 40 years, the public employee unions have had the playing field tipped their way. And through binding arbitration and many other mechanisms that have been available to the public employee unions, they just have eaten up every budget at every level of government in the state.
And that needs to change. And that's what Governor Walker and the Republican legislature is trying to do right now in Wisconsin.
SPITZER: Senator, look, thanks for coming on. We'll continue this one small point. I don't disagree with you about some of these binding arbitration clauses. I'm with you on that. But that's a very different matter than saying to folks that you have to give up your right to collective bargaining. I think it's an important distinction, let's not blur the issues anyway.
Senator, thank you for coming on board. And look forward to --
FITZGERALD: Thank you.
SPITZER: -- chatting again. Hope you find some of your colleagues there.
FITZGERALD: Thank you very much.
SPITZER: All right. E.D. and Will, did he persuade you? He didn't persuade me.
HILL: You're blurring. You are blurring.
SPITZER: Why is that?
HILL: Look, these unions didn't come up and say we'll give back, we'll help share the sacrifice here. It was only when they feared losing everything because the governor was standing firm and the people were turning against him that they then said, ooh, we better give up something. Otherwise they were hogging it.
CAIN: Look, you asked the senator several times, how can you square cutting taxes for the wealthy while cutting from the education budget? And you kept returning to the issue of fairness. And here's the answer that he should have given you now I'm going to give you.
SPITZER: All right. I'm waiting.
CAIN: Because Wisconsin is looking for economic growth.
SPITZER: Right.
CAIN: The formula of high government budget and high taxes has led to low economic growth and high deficits. They're trying to reverse that.
SPITZER: Look, Will, here's the critical thing because we've got to go back to facts, we got to go back to economic history. The reality is, since we've been living in the world of George Bush tax cuts, job growth has slowed. We have suffered, we have had depression, we have had recession, job losses across this nation, this mantra that senator and you are now repeating, cut the capital gains tax and we'll get huge job growth, simply is counterfactual.
CAIN: Just so I'm clear. I want to make --
(CROSSTALK)
SPITZER: It is wrong. It is wrong. And it has not been proven. Most fundamentally, even conservative columnists. I'm going to talk David Brooks now, one of the most respective conservative columnists in the nation has written here saying basic fairness --
CAIN: I know you keep --
SPITZER: -- is being violated. Fairness is at the heart of public policy, and the social fabric. I don't get it.
CAIN: No. No. I want to get you on the record on one thing. Just so we're clear. Low taxes do not lead to economic growth?
SPITZER: Not the way they're doing it. What you want is, in fact, Bowles-Simpson, again a very conservative document, wanted to eliminate the capital gains rate.
CAIN: But you -- I'm just saying, you try to tie to me to Bush.
SPITZER: Absolutely.
CAIN: And you suggest -- you suggested that Wisconsin is seeking to lower taxes in the name of economic growth, it's been bunk.
SPITZER: I'm asking --
CAIN: Now I'm just trying to ask you. If low taxes don't lead to economic growth, why don't you tax a 90 percent of income?
SPITZER: No. At a certain point we're not talking of where we are at that marginal rate that would make a difference. I defy you to show me that Wisconsin's cutting marginal tax rates on capital gains will generate the revenue and the jobs they need. It's simply not proven historically.
And if you go back to Bowles-Simpson, which is the great consensus document on fiscal issues of the last decade perhaps, they say eliminate the capital gains rate, tax everything at the personal income tax rate. That's a huge point in my favor on this critical debate.
E.D., what do you --
HILL: You don't have to go back very far. Look at Illinois. When they jack up taxes, they jack up corporate taxes, people leave the state. If Wisconsin wants to see the same thing, they can follow suit. But that's what happens. People have the option. They'll leave.
SPITZER: They're not jacking up rates at all. They're simply saying we can't afford to lower --
HILL: You're suggesting they should.
SPITZER: No. No. I'm saying they shouldn't cut them right now. There's a difference between cutting -- it's like the extension of the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy last December, which added $3.9 trillion to our deficit. Lo and behold, now we get to the New Year, suddenly we're spending our time trying to backfill that on the backs of the kids whose education we're cutting.
Again the conservative columnists are all saying this is bad policy. And it's wrong to do.
CAIN: Look, I like David, but I'm not beholden his opinion.
SPITZER: I'm not beholden to his opinion.
CAIN: I know --
(CROSSTALK)
CAIN: I know what you're trying to do. And I understand your argument and you want to hold --
SPITZER: But you're not saying it's wrong, you're just saying --
CAIN: You want to hold me to the Bush tax cuts.
SPITZER: You bet I do.
CAIN: But in my favor -- OK, fine, put that feather in your cap. In my favor, I have 200 years of American history that suggests low taxes on investment encourage unprecedented economic growth the world has never seen.
SPITZER: OK. Do you know what the marginal tax rate was all the way through the '50s, '60s, '70s when we had the highest job rate?
CAIN: Look, I got to --
SPITZER: We're going to put up a chart here --
(CROSSTALK)
HILL: Oh no.
CAIN: You're bouncing marginal tax rates and capital gains on me.
SPITZER: But look, we've got to talk real numbers. We're going to throw that chart up here, if not tonight, tomorrow night. And people are going to see Roosevelt had marginal rates at the 94th -- 94 percent for marginal tax rates. Anyway, we've got to take a break right here. This has been a fascinating conversation. I've got one feather in my cap as well. I count that as a victory.
All right. Stick around. We'll have much more with you folks later.
Coming up next, tens of thousands of refugees desperately trying to flee Libya. We'll have the latest on the growing humanitarian crisis. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SPITZER: In Libya tonight, a new humanitarian crisis is developing. Foreign workers stranded there are heading for the borders. Tens of thousands of refugees every day.
According to the United Nations, half are going to Egypt in the east, half to Tunisia in the west. Egypt has been able to handle them. But in Tunisia the situation is chaos.
At the border crossing of (INAUDIBLE), Tunisian authorities are overwhelmed. Two thousand people are passing across the border each hour with the throng of 10,000 to 15,000 massed behind.
Refugee organizations have built a small tent city, but it's not enough. Thousands of refugees are left literally in the cold with no food, water, or sanitation. Tens of thousands of the refugees are undocumented workers from countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh.
With no papers, no support from their own countries, and no way to get home. They're displaced, trapped in a no-man's land, placing an impossible burden on a system already at the breaking point.
CNN's Ivan Watson is on the Tunisian border.
Ivan, tell us what's happening now.
IVAN WATSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Eliot.
As to more than 75,000 refugees fled across the border in just the last week and a half, the United Nations finally issued an urgent appeal for help for what it is calling a humanitarian crisis that is on the verge of becoming a humanitarian catastrophe.
Up until now, the Tunisians themselves, this government and volunteers, have been alone trying to deal with this growing crisis. And we've seen really terrible scenes.
It's really ugly, Eliot, what's happening at the border right now. Where in that no-man's land in between the last Libyan border gate and the first Tunisian border gate. You've got thousands of men crammed in there, people passing out every 10 minutes, needing to get carried out on stretchers. Desperately waiting for them -- a chance to come across. You've got a handful of Tunisian soldiers and police and volunteers trying to hold the desperate crowd back and trying to keep some sense of order.
Now as these people come through, the Tunisians have been great about feeding them, about giving them water and immediate medical care. But they just don't have the tents or the temporary shelters to house these people.
As you mentioned, most of them are Arabs from other countries, most of them are Egyptians. They're now stranded here in Tunisia by the tens of thousands. And so far Egypt has not been able to provide nearly enough ships or planes to get them back to Egypt -- Eliot.
SPITZER: You know, Ivan -- Ivan, I may be wrong, but watching you right now, you seem to be shivering. And we always presume North Africa, Sahara Desert, it's got to be 100 degrees.
Give us a sense. Is it cold there? I mean what are the climate conditions that you're dealing with all these tens of thousands of people?
WATSON: Yes, I thought it'd be a lot warmer right now. But it's pretty cold on the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. We've had rain here. We've had dust storms. And you watch these guys who come through, they've spent days traveling through Libya and trying to get through the border.
They're clutching all of their possessions basically in one bag. Many of them telling me that they've been robbed by Libyan soldiers of their money and cell phones on the way. And they get across, and they have no idea where to go. And some of them were coming up to me and asking, now what do we do?
And with no instructions, no real advice, they'll have to wait days to get moved on to other transit camps. They are just bedding down in the scrub in areas like this behind me, with little more than a blanket to cover them, as the other night last night we were seeing a dust storm blow through.
So it's cold, they're exposed to the elements, they are getting some food, they are getting something help, but it's simply not enough.
SPITZER: You know, Ivan, just looking at the pictures, it appears to be a complete breakdown of civil society. And I just wonder, as I'm watching this, how did these tens of thousands of people get to the Tunisian border? Did they walk? Were there buses? What did they go through in -- on the Libyan side of the border to make it to Tunisia? What was the sort of the craziness they had to deal with?
WATSON: A lot of them said they ended up taking buses. But they were getting stopped at -- many military checkpoints along the way and passing in between Gadhafi-controlled territory to opposition-rebel controlled territory. All of them say that when they come across Gadhafi's troops, that there they are treated worse.
There they're held up at gunpoint. In some cases robbed by Libyan soldiers who also seem to have instructions to search them for cell phones, for laptops, for SIM cards which they then take away from them because they don't seem to want any images of the atrocities that we're hearing going on inside Libya getting out.
So not only do they lose what little earnings they've made -- and you have to consider, these people are going to Libya because they're trying to eke out a living there as construction workers, one man is a hairdresser in a provincial town. They're not making a lot of money. And that little money they've made gets taken from them in some cases.
And even their phones. So they come across the border and can't even call home to their families to tell them that they're still alive, that they're OK. So really a terrible situation. Some of the governments that are better organized -- China, for example, Korea, they have embassy officials on the border helping set these people up in hotels and temporary shelters, and then getting them on their way.
But the Egyptians, Eliot, they're estimated to have 1.5 million Egyptians working as migrant laborers in Libya right now. And they simply do not have the capacity to move these armies of stranded migrant laborers back home.
And we've heard the United Nations sending out an appeal to any country around the world to please come in here and help move these people back to their countries of origins.
A big question for down the road, what is the impact going to be of tens if not hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers going back home -- losing their sources of income and going back to countries that already have very high unemployment rates? Particularly here in northern Africa. A region that we've already seen is very politically unstable, over the past month and a half as revolutions royal this region -- Eliot.
SPITZER: All right. Ivan, thank you for that fascinating report. Stay safe amidst the chaos and breakdown of all civil society there on the border between Libya and Tunisia.
Of course, the other irony is that so many of the thousands of these refugees going from Libya, which is in the midst of a civil war, to Tunisia which we forget so quickly had its own revolution just a few weeks ago. This is just an unbelievable raw moment in history.
Anyway, joining me now from the front lines of the refugee crisis, Katherine Roux, who's along the Libyan-Tunisia border. She's a spokesperson for the International Red Cross.
Katherine, welcome.
KATHERINE ROUX, RED CROSS: Hi. Thank you for having me, Eliot. How are you?
SPITZER: Wonderful. Thank you. And more importantly, how are you? And describe for us -- you know we've seen these pictures of the crash of thousands of people trying to squeeze through these border crossings. What is going on there and what is this mass of humanity and how will we possibly deal with this?
ROUX: It's overwhelming. Evidently as you see in the photos, I arrived this afternoon from Tunis, stopped in Jarbah, which is the island closest -- with the closest airport to the border, where immediately as soon as you arrive you see hundreds of Egyptians being carted out to the airport.
They're -- we had confirmation that there were probably about 29 flights that left yesterday to Egypt. As well there were a huge number of Bangladeshis and more Malays squatting in the middle of the airport which is actually very well organized. I mean it is quite sanitary, the toilets.
And then as you come down here actually to the actual border itself, I mean it is -- it's complete chaos. And it's actually -- it's really devastating. You sense the desperation. You see the desperation of people carrying their lives on their backs, in bags, you know, with blankets, you know, one shoe, no shoes, needing immediate medical assistance, which the Tunisian Red Cross has been (INAUDIBLE) providing 24 hours a day for the past week and a half.
SPITZER: You know, Katherine, we're showing the folks -- I'm not sure if you can see it -- pictures that I believe you took in your journeys over the past couple of days of the squalor, the human -- the masses of humanity there trying to squeeze through the borders to get across into Tunisia.
Here's my question. Who is possibly going to provide food, water, sanitation for these tens of thousands of human beings? Is the International Red Cross capable at this point of providing that? Does it need more assistance? Is the international community stepping up to the plate right now?
ROUX: Yes, absolutely. We've just set out on our Web site, www.icrc.org. We've also launched an appeal to ask for support. We've brought an assessment team down here to evaluate the logistical and sanitation needs, the most urgent needs.
We really worked to support the national society which is the Tunisian Red Cross. They've done a fantastic job but they are absolutely at their capacity just like the local authorities. They're at their limit. They're emotionally, psychologically, physically exhausted. Like I said, working 24 hours a day at the border.
So we are in the process of doing our best to evaluate the situation and bring in immediate support. We've already requested one emergency response unit that will provide logistical support in the next 48 hours. Just critical to the coordination process. And we're just hoping for the best and also preparing for the worst.
SPITZER: All right. Katherine, that sounds like wise counsel not only there but elsewhere in the world. All right. Well, thank you so much for what you're doing. And we will chat with you in the days ahead.
ROUX: Thank you.
SPITZER: Up next, President Obama makes a huge concession on his prized health care law. One compromise too many? I certainly think so. We'll discuss when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SPITZER: We're back. And E.D. and Will are here as well.
If you come up with a better system use it. That essentially what President Obama told a roomful of governors this week about his health care law. The president is now willing to give states a chance to opt out the individual mandate, the critical provision of the law.
As far as I'm concerned, this was a step too far, a bridge too far, in the concessions he should not be making.
Anyway, CNN legal analyst Jeff Toobin is here to help us understand this.
Jeff, what did he say and what does it mean?
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Well, the health care law is intended to cover a lot more people with insurance that covers a substantial number of procedures. And the way the law is written, it says that the -- there's an individual mandate, that these individuals have to have insurance, either subsidized by the government or paid for by themselves by 2014.
What he said yesterday was, look, if you governors can figure out a way to cover the same people with the same kind of insurance, help yourself, go ahead, do it. Do it another way.
ELIOT SPITZER, HOST: Does this affect any of the litigation we've been talking about for months now? The 26 states that have gone into court to challenge the constitutionality of the health care law?
TOOBIN: You know, I think it does in a way. And the reason is it has to do with civil procedure. I'd like to talk about civil procedure because --
SPITZER: I remember that class.
TOOBIN: You know what, it's ratings magic.
SPITZER: Oh, yes.
TOOBIN: As soon as you say civil procedure, the ratings --
SPITZER: All right. Make it lively like it used to be.
TOOBIN: Two judges have ruled the law unconstitutional. Three judges have ruled that it's constitutional.
SPITZER: Right.
TOOBIN: But what a lot of people don't know is 12 judges have thrown the cases out. Have said, look, it's premature. It's too early. Procedurally, we don't even know what the law says yet. It's not in effect. And I think what President Obama has done will tell judges, look, don't evaluate this law until it goes into effect in 2014, 2017 in some cases. And I think that's actually advice that many judges will take.
SPITZER: That may be right, although I doubt it. And I think that the -- the case is framed, the statute is on the books. The constitutionality issue which has been framed, as you said, five judges have ruled on it, is there and is pending before the courts. And his interpretation, possible subsequent alterations of the statute do not in any way affect that commerce clause interpretation.
TOOBIN: Well, we'll find out.
SPITZER: Different issue but yes,
E.D. HILL, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Isn't this ingenious? The states can't -- say they can't afford the plan he's put out there already so how in the world could they afford coming up with a different plan that does the exact same thing?
TOOBIN: Well, I mean, the government is going to put -- the federal government is going to put a lot of money into this plan. I mean, some governors say they can't do. I mean, look, the Republican governors they don't want this thing at all. But Democratic governors are saying, look, you know, we can do this. We will do it. And, you know, I think the claims of the governors should be taken with the appropriate grain of salt, given whatever party they're from.
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Really? Jeffrey, to me it seems like an empty option, a blowing kiss in the wind, whatever, moot point. Obama is saying, hey, OK, you don't have to abide by the mandate, just go cover everybody with your Medicaid rules. At the same time, Mitch Daniels and who knows how many other governors in the states are saying we can't cover our current rolls much less increase the rolls of Medicare. So nothing can happen here.
TOOBIN: Will, as a practical matter, I think you've got a point. Look, Democrats don't want to revisit this. This was politically toxic enough of this. Republicans don't want to limit the roll but limit the law. They want to throw the whole thing out.
CAIN: Right.
TOOBIN: So, in fact, I don't think the law is going to proceed at all.
SPITZER: You made the critical point there, unintentionally, I think. The reason there isn't enough money to pay for health care as we have so many people who are not paying in but still use the system. And the rationale behind the individual mandate and this is the reason Mitt Romney, he may rue the day he did it, Mitt Romney embraced it is because it eliminates freeloaders. It's a very conservative principle.
CAIN: Let me --
SPITZER: People can't eat from the trough of public health care without paying in. Very conservative notion, and unless there's some alternative like a single payer, you can't pay for everybody.
CAIN: No, I get your argument. And I understand that the mandate is necessary for your math to work.
SPITZER: Right.
CAIN: Now I'm saying your math won't work --
SPITZER: We have different math --
CAIN: I've got Massachusetts as an example of that.
SPITZER: Yes?
CAIN: But the more important point is -- and you and I have talked about this, the philosophical divide. Whether or not your math works or not is one thing, but the philosophical divide of telling people they have to buy health insurance is just simply unovercomable (ph). Is that a word?
SPITZER: That's right. We're talking math not grammar, so you're OK.
TOOBIN: But I think that is a philosophical difference that was debated at great length. And frankly, Obama won and Republicans lost.
(CROSSTALK)
And I think that's the way the law is going to change.
CAIN: Jeffrey, let me -- does not today suggest that Obama might not be so confident in his court outcomes? Is this not perhaps maybe a backup plan for Obama?
TOOBIN: I don't know --
SPITZER: No. I don't think --
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: I think he said it's -- because he's attempting to look reasonable, which I think is his whole approach in terms of looking -- dealing with Congress is like, come up with a better proposal and I'll consider it. It's not going to -- knowing that they won't.
SPITZER: Let me make a different point here. Your philosophical objection -- I understands it, you want individualism. You want to say to people, look, you don't want to play this game, we can't force you to. But then we should say to those folks who don't pay in you don't get health care. And we have made a humanitarian decision when people show up at the emergency room, we take care of them. And that's the right decision. The corollary to that is you must participate. Same decision we made with social security.
CAIN: Yes.
SPITZER: Everybody's got to be in it. Now you can object to that, also --
CAIN: No, no, no.
SPITZER: It's another philosophical divide. I'm for it.
CAIN: Is the huge point of this debate -- what do you do with the free riders in the system?
SPITZER: Absolutely. Yes.
CAIN: The medical profession has made a commitment to the Hippocratic oath -- we will take care of people who walk through the door. Let me just say this. Guys from my side of the aisle believe that you will be able to expand coverage to those people by just lowering costs. In order to lower costs, you have to open up the free markets. You can't do it through rationing and control at the top level. I believe like you I want to expand coverage, but just a different way.
SPITZER: Here's the thing. I believe in competition more than the folks out there who want monopoly power. The problem is in the health care system, people want to participate but they don't want to pay. The individual mandate says only if you want health care you got to pay.
Anyway, let's -- I want to come back to the politics of this. What is the politics, Jeff, do you think that drove the president to make this? What I view is a concession, what others may not view as a concession?
TOOBIN: I think it really is a very political gesture because as we've discussed, Congress is not going back to this law.
SPITZER: Right.
TOOBIN: Congress has had it with this issue. The Republicans, many of them got elected on a promise to kill it all together. That's not happening, and neither is an amendment. But I mean, I think Obama's whole deportment when it comes to Congress now in this new world that we're in is to say I'm open to your ideas. Republican, Democratic, that's what he's -- that's the posture he's taking, but realistically nothing's going to change.
HILL: Is he doing this with the other Democratic leadership on full board or is he hanging them out to dry and say, OK, I'm going to look like I'm taking the middle ground here?
CAIN: Yes, what's Bernie Sanders say to that? TOOBIN: Well, Bernie Sanders said this is great because we can do single-payer plan in Vermont. That's our preference. The people's Republic of Vermont will have a single payer plan like Canada, like England, and that will -- that will satisfy the law. You know, look, that's not going to happen. And -- but giving states the chance to experiment is something that is politically popular.
SPITZER: All right. We'll continue this in a moment. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SPITZER: We're back with E.D. and Will and, of course, CNN's own Jeff Toobin, the legal wizards.
Let me ask you this question. You said that the president's comportment these days is to say to Congress, look, I'm open to suggestions. Is he -- and this is a purely political judgment -- running the risk of not standing for enough? Not ever drawing a line in the sand when he says on what is clearly his signature bill, ah, you don't like it, come up with something better, it's up to you? Does he begin to seem a little too weak?
TOOBIN: I think that is a potential risk. But the far greater risk is to seem like a left-wing ideologue. You know, the reason why -- one of the many reasons why the Republicans did so well in 2010 was that people were convinced that there was this Democratic monolith that was pushing the country too far to the left. If Obama says, look, I want to hear what you have to say, I'm open to ideas, we're now in the midst of a long like drawn-out drama about whether there's going to be a government shutdown. It seems to me it's in Obama's interests to be looked like the reasonable one and to make Congress look like the crazy people in all of these debates.
CAIN: Let me -- one greater risk, and that is to come off as a weak left-wing ideologue. A year ago, I thought Obama was an ideologue, one who -- and I respected that, by the way, on the opposite end of the spectrum. Somebody who's truly for reforming the health care system with the government in control. But a year later, I looked at this and I say I think Nancy Pelosi drove that bill. President Obama has shown a habit of leading from the back at the very least. And this seems to me like just another issue. I still think he's an ideologue, but he's not leading.
TOOBIN: I agree with you that Barack Obama is a lot less liberal than a lot of people think.
CAIN: That's not what I said --
TOOBIN: Well, I --
(LAUGHTER)
That's how I interpreted what you said. But I think the risk to him politically is seeming too far left. You know, the center is where you want to be when you're running for re-election. And I think this is all part of that effort.
HILL: That's what it's about.
SPITZER: You know, I just keep coming back to this notion that the individual mandate is a very conservative concept. And I hear what you're saying, you're right. The risk of being seen as being so far left is a real risk, a political suicide. He doesn't want to do that. But this was Mitt Romney's idea. This was conservative economics. And so I think it was a marketing issue that spoke to his failure to explain to the public what this was all about.
TOOBIN: I think there were a lot of marketing problems with health care reform. A lot of people -- there's an extraordinary poll recently that said half the people think it's not even in effect. It was declared unconstitutional. Even his supporters have trouble articulating what's good about it. But you know, what's really -- it's all about car insurance. I think we all know that you have to get car insurance if you have a car. You have to get health insurance if you're a human being.
CAIN: That's a big point.
SPITZER: All right.
CAIN: You can't let the individual mandate stand as a conservative principle. What Mitt Romney says does not mean what conservatives believe.
SPITZER: All right. I'll let you and Mitt Romney fight over that.
Anyway, Jeffrey Toobin, thanks for being here. E.D. and Will, I'll see you a little later in the show.
Coming up, a fascinating take on Libya. A dissident in exile tells you his story from Texas. You want to hear it. He'll be here but he's from Texas. You want to hear his story.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SPITZER: While thousands flee Libya tonight, many remain to face a brutal regime and plan for an uncertain future. My next guest has been talking to many of the holdouts day and night throughout this crisis. And he has a big stake in a post-Gadhafi era. Mansour El- Kikhia is an exiled Libyan opposition leader. His brother was the first Libyan ambassador to the United States, and his cousin, a foreign minister for Gadhafi who turned on the leader, disappeared in 1993 and is believed to have been executed by the regime. Professor El-Kikhia is professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
Professor, thank you so much for being here. First question -- Libya is on the verge or is in the midst of a civil war. We in the United States are itching to do something. From your perspective, what should we do?
MANSOUR EL-KIKHIA, UNIV. OF TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO: Nothing, Eliot.
SPITZER: That's very hard --
EL-KIKHIA: I know it's very difficult indeed. I know. But the truth is I don't want to see Libya used as a ball between American politics. And yesterday what I've been watching is that it was. Republicans blame the Democrats for not doing enough. Democrats blame the Republicans for asking to do too much too fast. And so I want -- what I would like to see happen, I like the Libyans to resolve this issue by themselves. Which means a number of things. First, no air strikes. No invasion, military troops -- you don't need to go there.
The Libyans are willing to put their lives on the line and they are. The United States can provide military aid if it wants to. It can shoot down those planes if it doesn't want to have a -- if they don't want have a no-strike -- no-fly zone. And but most important is to provide economic support, help, food, medicines, running very short.
SPITZER: Let me parse this a little bit, because there are reports late today that certain voices in the Libyan opposition, leaders of the revolt, are saying to the west we need air strikes. So first, what are you hearing in your conversations back to those in Libya about what's happening militarily? Are you winning? Is the revolt winning?
EL-KIKHIA: The revolt is winning. I talked to the head of the provincial government in Libya. And they --
SPITZER: Who is that? Who is the head?
EL-KIKHIA: The -- his name is -- is a bit --
SPITZER: You have his phone number? Can we call him right now?
EL-KIKHIA: You know, actually, I do have his phone number. If you'd like to call him, I'd be more than happy to give you his phone number to call.
SPITZER: All right. What is his name? What has he said about the military condition?
EL-KIKHIA: He said he does not want -- does not want military strikes by Americans or anyone else. His name is Masahabajalil (ph).
SPITZER: And how is he deemed to be the leader of the revolution?
EL-KIKHIA: He's a judge. He's a judge and he's a wise man and he was selected by a number of others to head the government. And he does not see a need for American or European intervention in Libya right now. What he does need, as I said, is the ability to fight, to level the playing field. And to level the playing field is to provide military hardware to shoot down those planes if they come, but most important is to provide necessary medical supplies and help because food is running short. SPITZER: Look, we will, in fact, try to reach him shortly. But look, in term of a no-fly zone then, you say that's fine. But do you fear that Gadhafi is creating a position of strength in Tripoli and this could devolve into a civil war with thousands and thousands of casualties?
EL-KIKHIA: Well, he hasn't left Tripoli. But I always said that Gadhafi has two choices. Either to leave Tripoli and leave Libya peacefully or leave Libya with 15,000 or 20,000 people with him. But you see, he's going to leave Libya with 20,000 people with him. But don't forget, Eliot, he's been there for 40 years. I mean, you want miracles to happen in two days? This is not a Hollywood movie.
SPITZER: This is where your sense of patience is showing us a few things.
EL-KIKHIA: Yes, yes.
SPITZER: Let me ask you another question because there are also reports late this afternoon that there were negotiations that were beginning between the head of the revolution and Gadhafi. Did you hear any of that when you spoke to the head of the revolution?
EL-KIKHIA: No, it did not happen. No, I think much of this is Gadhafi's own propaganda machine doing this. I mean, they -- he's still there with very powerful set of troops. Troops are still coming in. Most troops are coming in the south from (INAUDIBLE). He has his arm to the teeth, but the bigger problem too is which is beginning to face now like others is shortages in food. In Tripoli, shelves are emptying out. He gave people money, but there's nothing to buy.
SPITZER: So you think the food shortage is what will lead to a crisis within the population?
EL-KIKHIA: I've never seen in my life, you know, any regime deal with food shortages and food riots.
SPITZER: Now he is creating the food shortage. He has told his military to fire at his own public. Who within the general public is still supportive of him?
EL-KIKHIA: Very few. But what can they do? It's a prison over there. He packs up kids and all those what he perceives to be agitators, puts them in prison, and he thinks he's having control. But you see, he hasn't moved out. Last night, I was listening to direct line, telephone line with Misurata, and I was hearing the firing.
SPITZER: The city of Misurata?
EL-KIKHIA: The city of Misurata. There's actually a base over there. There's a training base. Half of the troops left the base, they joined the group. The other half are still loyal to the regime. And they wouldn't give up. And they're firing up in the air to scare everyone from coming close. SPITZER: Now when we have seen Gadhafi interviewed over the last few days. In fact, I would say farther back, months and years, he appears not to use the clinical term, he appears crazy. Does the public in Libya share this view?
EL-KIKHIA: Honestly, I've been saying this for the last 30 years. Nobody believed us.
SPITZER: No, no, we believe -- well, maybe we should have believed you earlier. But here's my question then -- if this is the image of the leader of the nation, why is the military remaining loyal to him?
EL-KIKHIA: Well, it's because he made very sure -- what is remaining to him are the revolutionary committees. And the revolutionary committees he made very clear to them very, very early on if I go, you go. There is no way around that.
SPITZER: Now there have been some defections. There have been some in the air force, for instance, who flew their jets to Malta, others who ditched their planes in the Mediterranean. Are you hearing that the military is beginning to fracture perhaps?
EL-KIKHIA: Yes, you're right. That's the military. But that's not the source of strength. His source of strength are the revolutionary committees, who are paramilitary groups, that he has nurtured over so many years by providing them with privileges, by providing them with assets, providing them with -- they are the group that he depends on, not the military.
SPITZER: But these are not mercenaries.
EL-KIKHIA: Yes.
SPITZER: The mercenaries are from other countries.
EL-KIKHIA: From other countries. These are Libyans. These are Libyan revolutionary committees that he depended on. And then you have -- those are fed with the mercenaries. The army, he hollowed out in 1974. The army is useless. There is no army in Libya.
SPITZER: You saw earlier in the program we talked about the refugees streaming to the borders.
EL-KIKHIA: Yes, yes.
SPITZER: Egypt on the east, Tunisia on the west.
EL-KIKHIA: Yes.
SPITZER: Civil society has broken down. Chaos. How much longer can this last? Can you speak to that?
EL-KIKHIA: Honestly, believe me, that what you see -- Libyans are surprising and surprising me. And they will surprise even you. They set up a system in the east in Libya where the shops are open, banks -- the only thing that's not open yet are schools. The televisions, satellite images will be up tomorrow. And a television station which will compete with Gadhafi's television station which is coming from his base.
SPITZER: And you, in fact, am I right, we were chatting. You've already seen the newspaper that is beginning to come out.
EL-KIKHIA: It's wonderful. The newspaper to me was the most fascinating thing because for the first time -- I looked and the thing that's really attracted me was the date. For the first time, Libyans knew what day of the -- what day of the year it was. Because what you have is that he gave the months his own names. And no one knew what those months were. So what January was -- what was January? And then tomorrow -- I saw the first issue of the newspaper, an independent, free newspaper, with the dates, real dates.
SPITZER: Very quickly because time is short. When was the last time you were back in Libya?
EL-KIKHIA: 1980.
SPITZER: And when do you think you'll get to go back?
EL-KIKHIA: Next month I hope.
SPITZER: All right. Good luck. Professor El-Kikhia, fascinating insight. Thank you so much for joining us.
EL-KIKHIA: Thank you for having me.
SPITZER: We'll be back with some final words with E.D. and Will. Sit tight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SPITZER: We're back with Will and E.D. You know, it's never too early for presidential politics to heat up. Newt Gingrich, you may remember his name, he was in politics, what, 10, 20, 30 years ago? Something like that if I remember?
CAIN: I was young.
SPITZER: Jumping in your -- you're young. He is the first Republican. Thursday he will set up an exploratory committee to basically the first step to announcing his race for president. So the first big fish or as I would have said maybe since Newt's a reptile, reptile into this race, what do you make of it? Is he going to win? Does he have a shot? How do you assess this field?
CAIN: Assessing the field. Quickly on Newt, he doesn't make my top five hopefuls. As you and I and E.D. continue to have a conversation, you cannot define the individual mandate as a conservative idea because one conservative, Mitt Romney, championed it. It kills his chances.
SPITZER: I'm glad he did. CAIN: So when I analyzed the field, it kills Romney's chances.
SPITZER: All right. Is it yes?
HILL: No Newt, I think he is very intelligent. I don't know who else is going to join the field. But you know, he's got his personal issues. However, we are a forgiving nation.
SPITZER: Right.
HILL: And I think people get over that. And I think that --
SPITZER: Can I say this about Newt Gingrich. He is and has an eclectic, fascinating intellect.
HILL: Yes.
SPITZER: He is one of the smartest people.
CAIN: He's a smart guy.
SPITZER: A sense of history, he gave a speech when he became the speaker of the House of Representatives a number of years back that I read. It was historical, fascinating. But what is the one theme he will trumpet to say I should be president? What is his one-sentence argument?
HILL: Creative thinking.
SPITZER: That's not going do it.
CAIN: You know, that's not. And it's going to be a challenge that you and I and E.D. cannot define that at this moment. I imagine he's going to rally around budget. You know what? I think he's going to rally around low taxes and economic growth. The problem with Newt --
SPITZER: Been there, done that. I mean, that's an old slogan. Maybe it appeals, maybe not.
CAIN: I'm not trying to sell it for him.
HILL: You need and you need somebody to come up with a creative way to do that.
SPITZER: OK. Look, Will, you said he's not in your top five. Who are the top five then?
CAIN: These are my hopefuls. OK. I know Chris Christie is not going to run. I wish so much that he would. Mitch Daniels would be next.
SPITZER: Right.
CAIN: I love if George Will would run. Yes.
SPITZER: OK. All right.
All right. E.D., you know what? You have three. What are your two? Who are your two?
HILL: Well, I can't say that they are the only two, but I certainly like Mike Huckabee. And I like Mitt Romney.
SPITZER: OK. Well, I'll say this, I like Mike Huckabee, too. He's a wonderful guy. I've met him a few times. Love him as a person. I don't think he has a shot. He's too nice. The question --
HILL: Now that -- that is a statement. You know what? It's about time for just some nice guy to be running our country.
SPITZER: That's too bad he's not going to win. Let me throw out a totally name -- Jeb Bush.
CAIN: Absolutely. If his name weren't Bush, he'd be towards the top of my list. And it doesn't bother me, but it will bother the electorate that his name is Bush. But that guy is smart and right --
SPITZER: Thirty seconds which we all we got. Seems to me the Republicans cannot win without making inroads, it's just raw arithmetic, cannot win without making inroads into the minority vote. Assuming the African-American vote is going to be pretty rock solid for Barack Obama, the Latino vote has got to be brought over, who among this list of candidates can possibly do it?
HILL: Economics is colorblind. People are going to vote with -- you know, about money. They're not going to be voting, I don't think, on color.
CAIN: I actually really like that point. Look, politics to me is about principles. Anybody that puts forward the right principles, no matter what your color, you should be attracted to it.
SPITZER: Look, I agree with you 100 percent. But one of the principles that certainly the Latino, the Hispanic community is going to be looking to is issues about immigration reform. And it may be a tough area for some of these candidates to break into that voting bloc. We'll see. I agree that it should be about principles, nothing else.
All right, E.D. and Will, thank you. Exciting conversations across the board tonight. Thanks so much to you for joining us IN THE ARENA tonight.
Good night from New York. "PIERS MORGAN TONIGHT" starts right now.
