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CNN Live At Daybreak

Who Would Replace Taliban Government If It Falls?

Aired October 29, 2001 - 07:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Afghanistan's leading Islamic cleric is calling on Muslims throughout the world to go there to defend his nation. U.S.-led bombing attacks continue to pound key positions. If the military attacks succeed in toppling the Taliban, it seems certain many groups will (INAUDIBLE) for power.

With a look at the possibilities, we turn to Amhad Rasheed, a journalist and the author of "Taliban, Militant Islam Oil and Fundamentalist in Central Asia" . He is with us from Islamabad, Pakistan. Good to have you with us Mr. Rasheed .

AMHAD RASHEED, JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: How big a setback was the assassination of Mr. Hach ? Where does that lead the potential successor regime to the Taliban at this juncture?

RASHEED: Well it was a considerable success for the Taliban. Mr. Hach was not just a (INAUDIBLE) commander, he was also a national figure. All Afghans here and the (INAUDIBLE) are mourning his capture and execution by the Taliban.

But at the same time, it must be said that other commanders have gone inside southern and eastern Afghanistan. They're attempting to do the same thing that Mr. Hach was doing, that is to raise an anti Taliban rebellion in the south of the country where at the moment, the U.S. has no Afghan forces fighting on the ground against the Taliban.

O'BRIEN: Do you give them much chance for success - these others and can you give us some more specifics about their efforts?

RASHEED: Well I think, you know, the main point is and I think one of the complaints of Abdul Hach and his family were that you know the Western Alliance doesn't seem to be backing them, and I think that's probably true of these commanders who are inside right now. There is no well defined American strategy to back these commanders who are willing to go in, risk their lives, and basically go in with very little.

I mean I think there was a struggle even to get sat-phones - that's satellite phones for Abdul Hach. These are, you know, these are expensive items. You need communication. You need food, supplies, weapons, et cetera, and there doesn't seem to be backing, at least, at the moment from the Americans or the British. O'BRIEN: To what extent is this an effort which will be perhaps always futile in the sense that Afghanistan is not part of the world, which is well suited for any sort of nation building. It is - their tribal rivalries go back centuries. Is it - it's not a simple thing to think about a regime to replace the Taliban, is it?

RASHEED: I don't think any of the policy makers are having any doubts about that. Nobody's under estimating the problems, and someone like myself - I mean I'm certainly not underestimating the problem. But I think, you know, there are certain elements here, which does give food for thought and hope.

The first is that the, you know, the Afghan population is totally exhausted. They're not willing now to back any of the war lords who might want to strike out on their own. There is now an attempt by several groups, particularly the former King Zahir Shah (INAUDIBLE) to form a coalition of all the factions of warlords , the ethnic groups, the tribes. It's been going very slowly. There have been a lot of criticism of the former king's efforts.

But again, they in turn criticize the Western Alliance for not having a clear political strategy and for not backing them. They too need funding. They need political support and they need access to a lot of people inside Afghanistan for which they need communications and other such things.

So there is also, of course, a staggering humanitarian crisis in the country, which is also, I think, really convinced most Afghans that there is now a very enormous opportunity for peace and the U.N. and the international community are talking about the reconstruction of Afghanistan for the first time in 10 years. So I think, you know, this too gives food for thought that can be the hope that the West is not going to walk away from Afghanistan once the shooting stops.

O'BRIEN: Mr. Rasheed , who do you think double-crossed Mr. Hach ?

RASHEED: Well it's very uncertain, but he was certainly betrayed. It's not certain if he was betrayed by people in Peshawar or people inside Afghanistan. But there is enormous amount of speculation as to what happened and of course, you know, the tragedy was that the Taliban had promised that his body would be returned, but his body was not returned and was buried secretly inside Afghanistan. So there's not even the knowledge of how he died exactly or what happened.

O'BRIEN: All right, just briefly, would you rule out Pakistani intelligence in this?

RASHEED: Well I would rule out Pakistani intelligence, but there are elements in Pakistan, some of the groups who are linked to Osama bin Laden. Some of the groups who are now fighting for the Taliban, who could have been involved with his capture and his execution. And at the same time, we should remember the Taliban have an incredibly good intelligence network.

This is something that is not generally recognized. Their intelligence network stretches into Iran, into Pakistan, into central Asia, and they certainly have a very good network in Peshawar where we - where something like 12 prominent Afghans have been murdered in the last 12 years because they have taken an anti Taliban position. Not one of those murderers have ever been bought to book and is generally being presumed that they were murdered in Peshawar by Taliban or pro Taliban elements.

O'BRIEN: Mr. Rasheed , thank you very much for your time. Omhad Rasheed is the author of "Taliban, Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia" . I guess perhaps Paula, no surprise it's on "The New York Times" bestseller list, probably a book that would not have attained that stature.

ZAHN: And probably will stay there ...

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: Probably will be there for awhile. Yes.

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