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CNN Live At Daybreak

What To Expect in Hunting Bin Laden

Aired November 15, 2001 - 05:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: And there is a multimillion- dollar reward for the person or persons who turn in Osama bin Laden and his terrorist followers. So what can we expect next in hunting down bin Laden?

For some possible answers let's turn to Andrew Garfield. He's director of the International Center for Security Analysis at Kings College in London. Thanks for joining us this morning. Certainly a lot of questions raised ...

ANDREW GARFIELD, KINGS COLLEGE: Good morning.

CALLAWAY: ... good morning to you, in David's report. Let's start with what you feel like will be the strategy of U.S. and now Britain, who's sending in additional troops in tracking down bin Laden now that Kabul's been taken, now reportedly Kandahar is close to falling. What do you think is going to happen now?

GARFIELD: Well the most important thing that's happened is the stripping away of the supposed invincibility of the Taliban. The collapse has undermined a lot of the support they have, even in their homeland area and that enables us to begin the process of trying to win over supporters on the fringes of the al Qaeda and Taliban network in the south, so that they start to begin to give away information about the Taliban, where they're hiding, where al Qaeda are hiding, where bin Laden is.

CALLAWAY: Yes but Peter Bergen raised a good point in that piece, it's going to be very difficult to do with a lot of these people fighting for bin Laden for many years and very dedicated to the death obviously.

GARFIELD: Well the inner circle is very dedicated, even perhaps within that inner circle there may be one or two individuals who are doubting the cause or don't want to die, and if we could win even one of those over, perhaps with the offer of money, perhaps with other types of inducement, that could be enough. But I think initially if we think of this like an onion and that we need to peel away the layers to finally reach the center, a great many more layers have been peeled off in the last week than anybody expected. And a lot of the supporters on the fringes, in the communities, in which these people are hiding, are beginning to question whether they should continue to support the Taliban and al Qaeda. CALLAWAY: It doesn't seem like this is going to be able to be done without troops on the ground almost searching for a needle in a haystack here. What kind of strategy would the U.S. military have to take to encounter the pockets of deadly Taliban that really have nowhere to go in some of these areas.

GARFIELD: I think one of the key things to do first is containment, to put up a block around the areas in which we suspect they're hiding, so that they can not then begin moving into the rest of the country and carrying out attacks. Then it's a question of getting on the ground, carrying out reconnaissance, and searching out the hiding places of these people, also beginning a perception management campaign to win over fringe supporters closing the noose around the neck of the al Qaeda network. But it's not going to be a quick thing if people stay loyal to that organization.

CALLAWAY: And what will be the British involvement in this now?

GARFIELD: Well Tony Blair has announced several thousand troops to being placed on standby. A lot of their role will be in the north supporting a new government, providing protection to air bases and to convoy routes. There may well also be some involvement in the hunting down of the Taliban and al Qaeda in the south, probably more likely special forces and the commander units that support those special forces.

CALLAWAY: And we heard -- we also heard Peter Bergen say in David Mattingly's report that he feels like Osama bin Laden has decided to die in this conflict. What are your thoughts on that?

GARFIELD: He may be willing to die. He probably doesn't want to die yet, and there's a possibility that when he feels his hiding places in Afghanistan are running out, he may well retreat to another country. He will wish to continue leading his crusade to use another person's words, against the West, against America. I don't think he's going to want to be a martyr just yet. I think he'll want to carry on fighting.

CALLAWAY: And quickly, I just have a few seconds here. What about the chances of him fleeing into Iraq?

GARFIELD: It's possible, but he's got to get to Iraq. There's no land borders. He's probably going to have to go through Pakistan. Once this organization begins to panic, begins to feel the need to start moving, that's our best chance of capturing and using both humans and other technical means.

CALLAWAY: All right, Andrew Garfield, thank you very much for joining us this morning, and coming up in the next hour ...

(CROSSTALK)

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