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CNN Live At Daybreak

Bush to Visit Bejing; Taiwan-China Relations May Be Improving

Aired February 15, 2002 - 05:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush has an international agenda this weekend. He is scheduled to meet today with the president of Uruguay and then tomorrow Mr. Bush leaves for a six day trip to Asia. He will be visiting Japan, South Korea and China.

Some of the most contentious issues between the United States and China are arms proliferation, human rights, missile defense and Taiwan. U.S. officials are not expecting any breakthroughs during the president's visit to Beijing.

But as our Senior Asia Correspondent Mike Chinoy reports, there's some evidence of progress in relations between the motherland and what it calls the renegade province, Taiwan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIKE CHINOY, CNN SR. ASIA CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Taiwan Navy frogmen training on the beaches of Quemoy, a tiny island within sight of mainland China just across the Taiwan Strait, for decades the front line in the struggle between the Chinese nationalist regime in Taipei and its bitter communist rivals in Beijing.

"In the past when things were tense, we used to carry out covert operations against the other side," says Major Serjin Chung (ph). "We don't do that anymore."

Instead, the talk on Quemoy is of trade and exchanges. In the past year, over 8,000 Taiwanese have sailed from here to the mainland. Captain Quo Bishing (ph) has made the voyage 23 times. There used to be no traffic with the mainland, he says. But our ancestors came from there and we are filled with joy to be making the trip now.

The mainland products on sale in is of trade and exchanges. In the past year, over 8,000 Taiwanese have sailed from here to the mainland. Captain Quo Bishing has made the voyage 23 times. There used to be no traffic with the mainland, he says. But our ancestors came from there and we are filled with joy to be making the trip now.

The mainland products on sale in Quemoy's markets are just one small sign of an explosion of contact between these two long time enemies, contact that now includes tens of billions of dollars of Taiwan investment in the mainland.

(on camera): For all the progress, Taiwan remains a flash point. The gun emplacements dotting the coastline here in Quemoy testify to that. It remains the one issue that could still bring the United States and China into armed conflict.

MICHAEL SWAINE, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT: You still have, to some degree, distrust within China about Washington's motives towards Taiwan, and, of course, in Washington about China's motives towards Taiwan.

CHINOY (voice-over): Despite an improvement in Sino-American ties since September 11, the Bush administration is proceeding with plans to beef up Taiwan's military capability to counter China's continuing arms buildup, a buildup Beijing says is necessary to ensure that one day the island, which it sees as a renegade province, is reunited with the mainland.

Few observers here in China or in the U.S. believe a military confrontation is likely any time soon. Beijing and Taiwan are preoccupied by domestic issues, the U.S. by the war on terrorism. And many hope growing economic ties, like those evident here in Quemoy, will lay the groundwork for an expansion of direct travel and trade links and eventually for political progress.

JOSEPH WU, TAIWAN POLITICAL ANALYST: The two sides are integrating their economies. We are seeing a better chance for them to work together and to build up trust in order to solve the political deadlock with each other.

CHINOY: But that hasn't happened yet. In the meantime, Taiwan's soldiers on Quemoy aren't letting down their guard.

Mike Chinoy, CNN, Quemoy.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: And we want to talk to Mike Chinoy some more on this topic because it's very important to world events. Can you expound on how Taiwan figures into the Bush visit?

CHINOY: Well, ever since U.S. President Richard Nixon opened the door to better relations with China 30 years ago this month, Taiwan and the American determination not to let communist China take the island by force has always been a very contentious issue. In recent months, the common cause that China has made with the United States in the war on terrorism has led to a general improvement in the tone of relations between the Bush administration and the authorities in Beijing. In addition, the Chinese, for their own internal reasons -- they've got a leadership succession coming up, a big Chinese Communist Party Congress later this year -- they want stability externally. And in Taiwan, the government there also wants stability to make some internal changes.

So all three capitals now are in a position where no one really wants to rock the boat at the moment. And so the expectation when President Bush goes to Beijing next week is that there will be an agreement essentially to disagree, but to put Taiwan to one side. The longer term considerations, however, are a bit trickier, because even though Taiwan is moving to integrate itself economically with mainland China, the political trends on Taiwan are for increasing separation from mainland China. There's very little enthusiasm in Taiwan for political reunification. And so the fear is down the road that the Chinese in Beijing may feel compelled to use force to achieve that goal -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Mike Chinoy reporting live for us this morning.

Thank you very much.

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