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CNN Live At Daybreak

Suicide Bomber Strikes Open-Air Market in Israel; Presidential Campaigns Enter Final Day

Aired November 01, 2004 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you.

From the CNN Global Headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.

We have breaking news to tell you about. Word just coming in to us, a suicide bomber has struck an open air market in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. It happened just about 30 minutes ago. We know at least four people have been killed and there are dozens more who have been hurt.

Matthew Chance is on his way to Tel Aviv.

We've got him by phone this morning -- Matthew, what more can you tell us?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, details are obviously very sketchy at this stage. But the latest information we've got comes from hospital officials in the Tel Aviv area. They're saying at least four people have been killed as a result of this explosion at an open air market in the south of the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. Another 21 people, according to those hospital officials, have been injured. Five of those injured are said to be in serious condition. Another two are said to be in critical condition.

You can imagine the very closed narrow alleyways that constitute this marketplace in southern Tel Aviv, in a very working class area of that city, where people on low incomes go to buy their groceries, to do their every day shopping instead of going to the supermarkets, because it's cheaper there. You can imagine the kind of destruction of a device exploding in that contained area will have caused.

So it seems like quite a serious attack. Obviously authorities not moving at this stage to point the finger of blame at anyone. But there are Palestinian militant groups out there, of course, that have been waging a long running campaign of attacking Israeli civilians with suicide bomb attacks just like this. And so I suppose the suspicion is this is another one of those.

COSTELLO: Well, you know, the other suspicion is Yasser Arafat is in Paris. He's very ill. Some say there might be a power vacuum within the Palestinian territories and that this kind of thing will happen, this kind of thing will continue because Yasser Arafat is out of the country. CHANCE: Well, to be fair, these kinds of things continued when Yasser Arafat was in the country, as well, because it's part of this long running campaign. And, in fact, we've just been listening to people talking on Israeli radio from the Israeli parliament, the Israeli Knesset, saying that at this stage, nobody is drawing a direct link between the illness of Yasser Arafat, the fact that he's out of the country and this latest apparent attack.

What may well be discussed, although it hasn't yet, I have to say, I have to stress that, but the Israelis have, of course, committed themselves to allowing Yasser Arafat back if he recovers from this current illness that he's being treated for in that Paris hospital. There may well be some discussion later on about whether that will still be the case after this attack.

On the issue of the power vacuum, certainly that's a possibility. Certainly it's what a great deal of Palestinians have come to expect and have come to fear in the absence of Yasser Arafat and especially when the era of Yasser Arafat comes to an end. But at the moment, Palestinian officials stress that it's business as usual in the Palestinian territories and they're continuing to run the area in the same way as they did when Yasser Arafat was there and they're expecting, at least officially, for him to come back.

COSTELLO: Back to the pictures that we're seeing now, Matthew. I know you can't see them because you're on your way to Tel Aviv right now. But we're seeing -- it's a chaotic scene in this marketplace that you were describing for us.

Do we know if it was a suicide car bomber who was responsible for this?

CHANCE: We don't have those kinds of -- that kind of detail at the moment. But usually, I have to say -- and remember, Israel is so used to these kinds of suicide bomb attacks, usually they're attacks where people, individuals have strapped explosives onto them and then kind of walked into crowded areas like this so they can easily get into these very crowded, populated areas and detonate the explosives that are strapped around their bodies. That's the normal sort of way in which Palestinian suicide bombers tend to operate in. Now, although, perhaps at this point, there's been no indication that it was that kind of suicide bomber, or whether it was a car bomb or not. We're waiting for that kind of detail.

What I will say is that the Israeli security forces, the Israeli emergency workers have unfortunately become extremely competent at dealing with these kinds of emergencies. They're very quick to get to the scene. They're very quick to seal off the area and very quick to come up with the kind of information that you're asking for.

COSTELLO: Definitely so. These pictures that you're seeing, I just want to tell our viewers, are from Israeli television. They started coming in early this morning so they must have been right there on the scene.

How long will it take you to get there, Matthew? You're in Jerusalem. You were in Jerusalem, right?

CHANCE: Well, we're just outside of Tel Aviv now. We're on a main road going in there. We should be there within the next, you know, 15, 20 minutes. So obviously we'll have more clarity when we get to the scene. We'll have to give you a bit more information.

COSTELLO: All right, we're going to let you go and we'll catch you back here in about 15, 20 minutes.

Matthew Chance reporting live on his way to Tel Aviv, where there has been a suicide bombing. And we know at least four people have been killed and dozens more injured. When Matthew gets there, we'll have more information to pass along to you.

Let's talk about American politics now. If you're an undecided voter, it's just about time to hop down off the fence. Tomorrow is Election Day. And here's a look at a compilation of our latest polling, plus the polling of several other organizations. It remains a real horse race -- George Bush 48 percent, John Kerry 46 percent. That's in the margin of error, of course. The candidates are running hard. President Bush's first event is in Wilmington, Ohio, just about two and a half hours from now. From there, it's on to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. And then he'll head to Texas late tonight.

And, oh, what a busy weekend it was. The so-called battleground states are getting all the attention.

Not surprisingly, Bush was in Florida.

And our Dana Bash was with him.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On the last Sunday before Election Day, the president, a Protestant, went to Catholic mass in Miami. Catholics are a crucial voting bloc, a quarter of voters in Florida and nationwide. The monsignor publicly thanked the president for banning partial birth abortion. Parishioners got a pamphlet, careful not to endorse the president, but makes clear he's in line with the church on stem cell research, abortion, gay marriage and notes his Catholic opponent did not answer the questions.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Con su apoyo, vamos a ganar.

BASH: Later in Coral Gables, some niche campaigning. The president is relying on South Florida's Cuban community to mobilize. But some think Mr. Bush hasn't been tough enough on Fidel Castro, so...

BUSH: I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant.

BASH: With 48 hours to go as he pumps the crowds, standard Kerry attack lines become interactive. BUSH: He can run from that record...

UNIDENTIFIED AUDIENCE MEMBERS: But he can't hide!

BASH: And as he crisscrosses the Sunshine State, he's thinking up new variations of audience favorites.

BUSH: And then he entered the flip-flop hall of fame by saying, quote...

BASH: But as much as the Bush team looks to the party faithful these crucial last days to get out the vote, they know he does need some of those elusive swing voters to win. No mention of Osama bin Laden or his tape, but here's his message.

BUSH: Ultimately this election comes down to who do you trust.

BASH: Translation -- you know what you've got with me, you can't be sure with John Kerry. And to punctuate his pitch for fence- sitters, a new refrain.

BUSH: If you believe America should fight the war on terror with all our might and lead with unwavering confidence in our ideals, I ask you to come stand with me.

BASH (on camera): Bush aides recognize this push for Florida's 27 electoral votes in becoming more of a necessity because polls show another key battleground prize, Pennsylvania, is looking better and better for John Kerry.

Dana Bash, CNN, Gainesville, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: But Bush strategist Karl Rove is confident. He is predicting the president will win some states that went to Al Gore four years ago.

Listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARL ROVE, BUSH STRATEGIST: We're going to win. We're going to win. We will win Florida and Iowa. We will take at least two or three or four states that were won by Gore in the last election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Rove adds he doesn't think the Osama bin Laden videotape that came out late last week will influence American voters.

Senator John Kerry will spend more time in the battleground states today, too. He leaves Florida this morning for Wisconsin, and then it's off to Michigan this afternoon before an election eve rally with Bruce Springsteen in Cleveland, Ohio. The battleground states have been the focus for the past few weeks, the past few months. What are we talking about? The final hours are no different.

CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley has more on the Kerry campaign as it tries to avoid any last minute mistakes.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Time left is measured now in hours instead of days, and John Kerry marks the time with campaign lasts. The last Sunday and the fifth in a row at an African-American church.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Through many dangers, toils and snares, I have already come. It 'tis grace have brought me safe thus far and grace will bring me home.

CROWLEY: The last trip to the first primary state of New Hampshire and maybe the last photo-op ala Camelot, this one on the road between two church services in Ohio.

The campaign's biggest fears and fondest hopes are held within the itinerary. In the past week, Kerry has touched down in the 2000 Bush states of Ohio three times; Florida and New Hampshire both twice; Nevada. Fears are mapped out in the Gore states -- Wisconsin and Iowa, three times; Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan.

Advisers say Kerry is concentrating on getting into the local news in specific areas with pockets of undecideds, not that they want to make news.

KERRY: On Tuesday, this election is in your hands. It's the most beautiful, it's the most powerful thing that happens on the face of this planet.

CROWLEY: With polls so close and time too short to correct mistakes, Kerry sticks to the script. Surprises are unwelcome.

KERRY: I think it's unfortunate that anybody puts Osama bin Laden into any political context in the United States' election.

CROWLEY: Kerry's campaign says their polls show the impact of the bin Laden video favors Kerry. These last hours are the most cautious time of all in this cautious campaign. It is, after all, the last chance to seal the deal.

KERRY: I pledge to you, I know what we need to do in Iraq and I know what we need to do to make the world safe.

CROWLEY (on camera): Monday, Kerry leaves Florida for Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. There is nothing new to say now. This is that point in the election cycle where being there speaks volumes.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Tampa.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COSTELLO: After you vote, be sure to stay with CNN for all your Election Night results. We'll have full coverage of the red states, the blue states and all of the battlegrounds in between. All of that gets under way tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Still ahead on DAYBREAK, U.S. Marines prepare for a showdown with rebels controlling the Iraqi city of Falluja. CNN's Karl Penhaul will have that report for you from Iraq in five minutes.

Also ahead, what if the U.S. presidential election ends in a tie in the electoral college? CNN's Bill Schneider lays out some scary tie-breaking scenarios.

And Yasser Arafat's mystery illness -- a live report from Paris, where doctors are trying to figure out what's wrong with the Palestinian leader.

We'll also have an update for you from Tel Aviv, where there's been another suicide bombing.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Monday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports.

It is 5:14 Eastern.

Here's what's all new this morning.

Israeli police say four people and a suicide bomber have been killed at an open air market in Tel Aviv. It happened less than an hour ago. Authorities say at least 32 others were wounded in that attack.

An Austin, Texas police officer died after being run over by her own partner. Officer Amy Donovan was running after a suspect when she was hit by the patrol car. Donovan is the first female officer in Austin to die in the line of duty.

In money news, oil prices are climbing again as the market prepares for tomorrow's presidential vote. Early trading in Asia pushed the price per barrel up over $52.

In culture, students at the University of North Carolina can take an "American Idol" class next year. The students will rank the contestants and learn about different musical styles each week. And for the final, they'll argue the case for their choice of winner.

In sports, the Pittsburgh Steelers finally put an end to the New England Patriots winning streak. The Steelers completely dominated the Patriots on their way to a 34-20 victory. The Pats had won 21 straight games.

To the forecast center.

Chad is back -- welcome back, Chad. CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Carol, how are you?

COSTELLO: We missed you so much.

MYERS: I was in Vegas.

COSTELLO: I know.

MYERS: I missed you, too, briefly.

COSTELLO: For about a second?

MYERS: A couple days.

Good morning, everybody.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you.

And, of course, we are following that breaking news out of Israel. For the first time since late August, a suicide bomber has struck. It happened at an open air market in Tel Aviv. There are deaths and there are injured.

John Vause is in Tel Aviv this morning.

He brings us the latest now -- hello, John.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

I'm actually monitoring the situation from Jerusalem.

Israeli police now tell us that within the last hour or so, the suicide bomber, a male, walked up to a vegetable stand at an open air market in central Tel Aviv and blew himself up. According to the Israeli Fire Department, at least four people were killed on the scene. Another person, five, counting the suicide bomber, brings the death toll up to five. And 32 people wounded, according to the Israeli Ambulance Service. Six people have been wounded seriously. The rest, we are told, have been lightly wounded. All have been evacuated from the scene.

This is the first suicide bombing within Israel since August 31, when twin suicide bombers blew up two buses in Beersheba, killing 16 people, wounding 100. But that death toll now standing at four.

It was a busy marketplace in central Tel Aviv, Carol. There are concerns that that death toll may rise -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Oh, definitely so.

We're looking at pictures from Israeli television. Kind of a chaotic scene right now. But it's really kind of an organized chaos, isn't it? VAUSE: Well, that's the thing, that the Israeli Emergency Services, after four years of these kinds of attacks, have gotten very used to these kinds of explosions, especially in these crowded areas. What we've seen over the last four years is that in marketplaces, in particular the one here in Jerusalem known as the Mehane Yehuda Market, has been a target, quite often, it seemed, a soft target, by Palestinian militants. And this has been a very quiet year for suicide bombings. So there's some speculation that possibly the people have gotten used to it, a bit lax, that they're now returning to these open air marketplaces and now this happens.

So it -- like you said, the Israeli authorities, the Israeli people are used to this. But it has been a quiet year. So possibly there was a sense that, you know, all was well, that this kind of thing may not be happening again. It was a very, very busy time of the day, too -- Carol.

COSTELLO: You know the other thing, John, is Yasser Arafat is out of the country.

Any word on whether that may be a factor in this suicide bombing?

VAUSE: Well, what we heard from the militant groups like Hamas over the weekend is that they said they stand united with Yasser Arafat, that they support the Palestinian Authority. They've been at odds with the Palestinian Authority for years and years and years. So it will be interesting to see which militant group claims responsibility for this particular suicide bombing.

It will create problems for Yasser Arafat. Israeli said that they will, in fact, allow him to return to the West Bank while he's out of the country to receive treatment. But if there are suicide bombings happening while he's out of the country and out of the West Bank, out of his virtual confinement, house arrest in his West Bank compound, then that could cause problems for him if he wants to return. We have to wait and see what the response will be from the Israeli government.

We also need to find out which militant group is claiming responsibility for this. If it is, in fact, the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigade, which is a militant offshoot of Arafat's own Fatah Party, then, once again, that will create more problems, as well, for Yasser Arafat. There's just a lot of unknowns at this stage. It's going to play itself out in the next couple of hours.

COSTELLO: Well, do you suppose, also, John, that we'll hear from the Palestinian prime minister, Qureia? Will he step forward? Will he be the one to answer any charges posed by the Israeli government, possibly?

VAUSE: Well, what we've already heard in the last few minutes, Saeb Erakat, who is the chief Palestinian negotiator and a member of Arafat's cabinet, he was on the phone to us saying that the Palestinian Authority condemns these kind of suicide bombings. They do that pretty much after every suicide bombing or militant attack. They say they condemn it and then they put the blame back onto Israel for the occupation and that's where these suicide bombings stem from.

So I guess we now have to wait and see what Ahmed Qureia will have to say. He's the prime minister. And also Mahmoud Abbas. He's the man in charge of the PLO, the Palestine Liberation Organization. So he is the man that basically is filing in for Arafat, as well. So what these men have to say over the next few hours will also be very important.

COSTELLO: John Vause reporting live from Jerusalem this morning.

Thank you.

We're going to take a short break.

This is DAYBREAK for a Monday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: So, you think Halloween is over? Well, not so fast. There are several possible scenarios that could turn tomorrow's election into quite a scary situation. From recounts to court challenges to a split ticket, it's enough to make even Stephen King shudder.

CNN senior political analyst William Schneider is our guide through the haunted house of presidential possibilities.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): It's getting pretty scary out there, and not just because it's Halloween. Think of all the scary scenarios we could end up with on Election Day.

Remember the 2000 Florida recount? That horror show lasted five weeks. This year we could have a lot of Floridas -- states with close results and disputed vote counts. With millions of newly registered voters, we're hearing some wild charges about registration fraud.

C. BOYDEN GRAY, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: That's why the NAACP got an assistant to hand out crack cocaine in return for registrations.

SCHNEIDER: Both sides have armies of lawyers ready to fire lawsuits at each other.

DAVID BOIES, GORE 2000 CAMPAIGN ATTORNEY: I think when you have as many lawyers that are involved on both sides, there is a danger that they all try to find something to do.

SCHNEIDER: Now, that's scary.

Want to hear something even scarier? There are many ways the electoral vote could end up in a tie -- 269 for Kerry, 269 for Bush. Then what? Then the election goes to the House of Representatives in January, the new House, to be elected Tuesday. Here's the spooky part. Every state gets one vote. Fifty-three representatives from California, one vote. A single member of Congress from Vermont, one vote. It's likely that most states will continue to have more Republicans than Democrats in the House next year. So Bush would probably win.

But consider the spectacle of a president being elected by politicians instead of the people. The new Senate would elect the vice president, one vote per senator. There is a chance the Democrats could end up with a majority in the Senate. Imagine President Bush and Vice President John Edwards.

Not only that, but if several states end up with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the House, those states might abstain from casting a presidential vote. It's possible neither Bush nor Kerry could get the required 26 votes in the House.

Then what? Then the new vice president, elected by the Senate, becomes acting president. He gets to act in his own horror movie.

(on camera): The Web site ancestry.com reports that both Bush and Kerry can trace their ancestry back to a 15th century Transylvanian ruler nicknamed Vlad the Imapler, this guy, the model for the original Count Dracula. Pretty scary, huh boys and girls?

Bill Schneider, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COSTELLO: I'm scared and a little confused by that story.

Thank you, Bill Schneider.

Here's what's all new in the next half hour of DAYBREAK.

The latest on the charges and counter charges over voter registrations in Ohio. Yes, we're going to scare you some more. A court decision on Republican challenges to voters' qualifications going right down to the wire. We'll take a look.

You are watching DAYBREAK.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

SUSAN L. TAYLOR, EDITOR DIRECTOR, "ESSENCE": I really care about what people are thinking and feeling and so I listen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Editorial director Susan Taylor has been tuning into the readers of "Essence" magazine for 34 years. Under her leadership, the magazine's brand has expanded worldwide and monthly readership has grown to more than eight million. Known for her inspirational speeches, Taylor has also written books motivating and uplifting women.

TAYLOR: Remaining humble is very, very important for people, and to understand that everyone in your life, in many ways, is a teacher. A hunger for learning and a hunger for knowledge and a hunger to share and to help other people better their lives, I think, is the thing that keeps you just moving forward and being what we may term as successful.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired November 1, 2004 - 05:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you.

From the CNN Global Headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.

We have breaking news to tell you about. Word just coming in to us, a suicide bomber has struck an open air market in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. It happened just about 30 minutes ago. We know at least four people have been killed and there are dozens more who have been hurt.

Matthew Chance is on his way to Tel Aviv.

We've got him by phone this morning -- Matthew, what more can you tell us?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, details are obviously very sketchy at this stage. But the latest information we've got comes from hospital officials in the Tel Aviv area. They're saying at least four people have been killed as a result of this explosion at an open air market in the south of the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. Another 21 people, according to those hospital officials, have been injured. Five of those injured are said to be in serious condition. Another two are said to be in critical condition.

You can imagine the very closed narrow alleyways that constitute this marketplace in southern Tel Aviv, in a very working class area of that city, where people on low incomes go to buy their groceries, to do their every day shopping instead of going to the supermarkets, because it's cheaper there. You can imagine the kind of destruction of a device exploding in that contained area will have caused.

So it seems like quite a serious attack. Obviously authorities not moving at this stage to point the finger of blame at anyone. But there are Palestinian militant groups out there, of course, that have been waging a long running campaign of attacking Israeli civilians with suicide bomb attacks just like this. And so I suppose the suspicion is this is another one of those.

COSTELLO: Well, you know, the other suspicion is Yasser Arafat is in Paris. He's very ill. Some say there might be a power vacuum within the Palestinian territories and that this kind of thing will happen, this kind of thing will continue because Yasser Arafat is out of the country. CHANCE: Well, to be fair, these kinds of things continued when Yasser Arafat was in the country, as well, because it's part of this long running campaign. And, in fact, we've just been listening to people talking on Israeli radio from the Israeli parliament, the Israeli Knesset, saying that at this stage, nobody is drawing a direct link between the illness of Yasser Arafat, the fact that he's out of the country and this latest apparent attack.

What may well be discussed, although it hasn't yet, I have to say, I have to stress that, but the Israelis have, of course, committed themselves to allowing Yasser Arafat back if he recovers from this current illness that he's being treated for in that Paris hospital. There may well be some discussion later on about whether that will still be the case after this attack.

On the issue of the power vacuum, certainly that's a possibility. Certainly it's what a great deal of Palestinians have come to expect and have come to fear in the absence of Yasser Arafat and especially when the era of Yasser Arafat comes to an end. But at the moment, Palestinian officials stress that it's business as usual in the Palestinian territories and they're continuing to run the area in the same way as they did when Yasser Arafat was there and they're expecting, at least officially, for him to come back.

COSTELLO: Back to the pictures that we're seeing now, Matthew. I know you can't see them because you're on your way to Tel Aviv right now. But we're seeing -- it's a chaotic scene in this marketplace that you were describing for us.

Do we know if it was a suicide car bomber who was responsible for this?

CHANCE: We don't have those kinds of -- that kind of detail at the moment. But usually, I have to say -- and remember, Israel is so used to these kinds of suicide bomb attacks, usually they're attacks where people, individuals have strapped explosives onto them and then kind of walked into crowded areas like this so they can easily get into these very crowded, populated areas and detonate the explosives that are strapped around their bodies. That's the normal sort of way in which Palestinian suicide bombers tend to operate in. Now, although, perhaps at this point, there's been no indication that it was that kind of suicide bomber, or whether it was a car bomb or not. We're waiting for that kind of detail.

What I will say is that the Israeli security forces, the Israeli emergency workers have unfortunately become extremely competent at dealing with these kinds of emergencies. They're very quick to get to the scene. They're very quick to seal off the area and very quick to come up with the kind of information that you're asking for.

COSTELLO: Definitely so. These pictures that you're seeing, I just want to tell our viewers, are from Israeli television. They started coming in early this morning so they must have been right there on the scene.

How long will it take you to get there, Matthew? You're in Jerusalem. You were in Jerusalem, right?

CHANCE: Well, we're just outside of Tel Aviv now. We're on a main road going in there. We should be there within the next, you know, 15, 20 minutes. So obviously we'll have more clarity when we get to the scene. We'll have to give you a bit more information.

COSTELLO: All right, we're going to let you go and we'll catch you back here in about 15, 20 minutes.

Matthew Chance reporting live on his way to Tel Aviv, where there has been a suicide bombing. And we know at least four people have been killed and dozens more injured. When Matthew gets there, we'll have more information to pass along to you.

Let's talk about American politics now. If you're an undecided voter, it's just about time to hop down off the fence. Tomorrow is Election Day. And here's a look at a compilation of our latest polling, plus the polling of several other organizations. It remains a real horse race -- George Bush 48 percent, John Kerry 46 percent. That's in the margin of error, of course. The candidates are running hard. President Bush's first event is in Wilmington, Ohio, just about two and a half hours from now. From there, it's on to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. And then he'll head to Texas late tonight.

And, oh, what a busy weekend it was. The so-called battleground states are getting all the attention.

Not surprisingly, Bush was in Florida.

And our Dana Bash was with him.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On the last Sunday before Election Day, the president, a Protestant, went to Catholic mass in Miami. Catholics are a crucial voting bloc, a quarter of voters in Florida and nationwide. The monsignor publicly thanked the president for banning partial birth abortion. Parishioners got a pamphlet, careful not to endorse the president, but makes clear he's in line with the church on stem cell research, abortion, gay marriage and notes his Catholic opponent did not answer the questions.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Con su apoyo, vamos a ganar.

BASH: Later in Coral Gables, some niche campaigning. The president is relying on South Florida's Cuban community to mobilize. But some think Mr. Bush hasn't been tough enough on Fidel Castro, so...

BUSH: I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant.

BASH: With 48 hours to go as he pumps the crowds, standard Kerry attack lines become interactive. BUSH: He can run from that record...

UNIDENTIFIED AUDIENCE MEMBERS: But he can't hide!

BASH: And as he crisscrosses the Sunshine State, he's thinking up new variations of audience favorites.

BUSH: And then he entered the flip-flop hall of fame by saying, quote...

BASH: But as much as the Bush team looks to the party faithful these crucial last days to get out the vote, they know he does need some of those elusive swing voters to win. No mention of Osama bin Laden or his tape, but here's his message.

BUSH: Ultimately this election comes down to who do you trust.

BASH: Translation -- you know what you've got with me, you can't be sure with John Kerry. And to punctuate his pitch for fence- sitters, a new refrain.

BUSH: If you believe America should fight the war on terror with all our might and lead with unwavering confidence in our ideals, I ask you to come stand with me.

BASH (on camera): Bush aides recognize this push for Florida's 27 electoral votes in becoming more of a necessity because polls show another key battleground prize, Pennsylvania, is looking better and better for John Kerry.

Dana Bash, CNN, Gainesville, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: But Bush strategist Karl Rove is confident. He is predicting the president will win some states that went to Al Gore four years ago.

Listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARL ROVE, BUSH STRATEGIST: We're going to win. We're going to win. We will win Florida and Iowa. We will take at least two or three or four states that were won by Gore in the last election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Rove adds he doesn't think the Osama bin Laden videotape that came out late last week will influence American voters.

Senator John Kerry will spend more time in the battleground states today, too. He leaves Florida this morning for Wisconsin, and then it's off to Michigan this afternoon before an election eve rally with Bruce Springsteen in Cleveland, Ohio. The battleground states have been the focus for the past few weeks, the past few months. What are we talking about? The final hours are no different.

CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley has more on the Kerry campaign as it tries to avoid any last minute mistakes.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Time left is measured now in hours instead of days, and John Kerry marks the time with campaign lasts. The last Sunday and the fifth in a row at an African-American church.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Through many dangers, toils and snares, I have already come. It 'tis grace have brought me safe thus far and grace will bring me home.

CROWLEY: The last trip to the first primary state of New Hampshire and maybe the last photo-op ala Camelot, this one on the road between two church services in Ohio.

The campaign's biggest fears and fondest hopes are held within the itinerary. In the past week, Kerry has touched down in the 2000 Bush states of Ohio three times; Florida and New Hampshire both twice; Nevada. Fears are mapped out in the Gore states -- Wisconsin and Iowa, three times; Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan.

Advisers say Kerry is concentrating on getting into the local news in specific areas with pockets of undecideds, not that they want to make news.

KERRY: On Tuesday, this election is in your hands. It's the most beautiful, it's the most powerful thing that happens on the face of this planet.

CROWLEY: With polls so close and time too short to correct mistakes, Kerry sticks to the script. Surprises are unwelcome.

KERRY: I think it's unfortunate that anybody puts Osama bin Laden into any political context in the United States' election.

CROWLEY: Kerry's campaign says their polls show the impact of the bin Laden video favors Kerry. These last hours are the most cautious time of all in this cautious campaign. It is, after all, the last chance to seal the deal.

KERRY: I pledge to you, I know what we need to do in Iraq and I know what we need to do to make the world safe.

CROWLEY (on camera): Monday, Kerry leaves Florida for Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. There is nothing new to say now. This is that point in the election cycle where being there speaks volumes.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Tampa.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COSTELLO: After you vote, be sure to stay with CNN for all your Election Night results. We'll have full coverage of the red states, the blue states and all of the battlegrounds in between. All of that gets under way tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Still ahead on DAYBREAK, U.S. Marines prepare for a showdown with rebels controlling the Iraqi city of Falluja. CNN's Karl Penhaul will have that report for you from Iraq in five minutes.

Also ahead, what if the U.S. presidential election ends in a tie in the electoral college? CNN's Bill Schneider lays out some scary tie-breaking scenarios.

And Yasser Arafat's mystery illness -- a live report from Paris, where doctors are trying to figure out what's wrong with the Palestinian leader.

We'll also have an update for you from Tel Aviv, where there's been another suicide bombing.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Monday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports.

It is 5:14 Eastern.

Here's what's all new this morning.

Israeli police say four people and a suicide bomber have been killed at an open air market in Tel Aviv. It happened less than an hour ago. Authorities say at least 32 others were wounded in that attack.

An Austin, Texas police officer died after being run over by her own partner. Officer Amy Donovan was running after a suspect when she was hit by the patrol car. Donovan is the first female officer in Austin to die in the line of duty.

In money news, oil prices are climbing again as the market prepares for tomorrow's presidential vote. Early trading in Asia pushed the price per barrel up over $52.

In culture, students at the University of North Carolina can take an "American Idol" class next year. The students will rank the contestants and learn about different musical styles each week. And for the final, they'll argue the case for their choice of winner.

In sports, the Pittsburgh Steelers finally put an end to the New England Patriots winning streak. The Steelers completely dominated the Patriots on their way to a 34-20 victory. The Pats had won 21 straight games.

To the forecast center.

Chad is back -- welcome back, Chad. CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Carol, how are you?

COSTELLO: We missed you so much.

MYERS: I was in Vegas.

COSTELLO: I know.

MYERS: I missed you, too, briefly.

COSTELLO: For about a second?

MYERS: A couple days.

Good morning, everybody.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you.

And, of course, we are following that breaking news out of Israel. For the first time since late August, a suicide bomber has struck. It happened at an open air market in Tel Aviv. There are deaths and there are injured.

John Vause is in Tel Aviv this morning.

He brings us the latest now -- hello, John.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

I'm actually monitoring the situation from Jerusalem.

Israeli police now tell us that within the last hour or so, the suicide bomber, a male, walked up to a vegetable stand at an open air market in central Tel Aviv and blew himself up. According to the Israeli Fire Department, at least four people were killed on the scene. Another person, five, counting the suicide bomber, brings the death toll up to five. And 32 people wounded, according to the Israeli Ambulance Service. Six people have been wounded seriously. The rest, we are told, have been lightly wounded. All have been evacuated from the scene.

This is the first suicide bombing within Israel since August 31, when twin suicide bombers blew up two buses in Beersheba, killing 16 people, wounding 100. But that death toll now standing at four.

It was a busy marketplace in central Tel Aviv, Carol. There are concerns that that death toll may rise -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Oh, definitely so.

We're looking at pictures from Israeli television. Kind of a chaotic scene right now. But it's really kind of an organized chaos, isn't it? VAUSE: Well, that's the thing, that the Israeli Emergency Services, after four years of these kinds of attacks, have gotten very used to these kinds of explosions, especially in these crowded areas. What we've seen over the last four years is that in marketplaces, in particular the one here in Jerusalem known as the Mehane Yehuda Market, has been a target, quite often, it seemed, a soft target, by Palestinian militants. And this has been a very quiet year for suicide bombings. So there's some speculation that possibly the people have gotten used to it, a bit lax, that they're now returning to these open air marketplaces and now this happens.

So it -- like you said, the Israeli authorities, the Israeli people are used to this. But it has been a quiet year. So possibly there was a sense that, you know, all was well, that this kind of thing may not be happening again. It was a very, very busy time of the day, too -- Carol.

COSTELLO: You know the other thing, John, is Yasser Arafat is out of the country.

Any word on whether that may be a factor in this suicide bombing?

VAUSE: Well, what we heard from the militant groups like Hamas over the weekend is that they said they stand united with Yasser Arafat, that they support the Palestinian Authority. They've been at odds with the Palestinian Authority for years and years and years. So it will be interesting to see which militant group claims responsibility for this particular suicide bombing.

It will create problems for Yasser Arafat. Israeli said that they will, in fact, allow him to return to the West Bank while he's out of the country to receive treatment. But if there are suicide bombings happening while he's out of the country and out of the West Bank, out of his virtual confinement, house arrest in his West Bank compound, then that could cause problems for him if he wants to return. We have to wait and see what the response will be from the Israeli government.

We also need to find out which militant group is claiming responsibility for this. If it is, in fact, the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigade, which is a militant offshoot of Arafat's own Fatah Party, then, once again, that will create more problems, as well, for Yasser Arafat. There's just a lot of unknowns at this stage. It's going to play itself out in the next couple of hours.

COSTELLO: Well, do you suppose, also, John, that we'll hear from the Palestinian prime minister, Qureia? Will he step forward? Will he be the one to answer any charges posed by the Israeli government, possibly?

VAUSE: Well, what we've already heard in the last few minutes, Saeb Erakat, who is the chief Palestinian negotiator and a member of Arafat's cabinet, he was on the phone to us saying that the Palestinian Authority condemns these kind of suicide bombings. They do that pretty much after every suicide bombing or militant attack. They say they condemn it and then they put the blame back onto Israel for the occupation and that's where these suicide bombings stem from.

So I guess we now have to wait and see what Ahmed Qureia will have to say. He's the prime minister. And also Mahmoud Abbas. He's the man in charge of the PLO, the Palestine Liberation Organization. So he is the man that basically is filing in for Arafat, as well. So what these men have to say over the next few hours will also be very important.

COSTELLO: John Vause reporting live from Jerusalem this morning.

Thank you.

We're going to take a short break.

This is DAYBREAK for a Monday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: So, you think Halloween is over? Well, not so fast. There are several possible scenarios that could turn tomorrow's election into quite a scary situation. From recounts to court challenges to a split ticket, it's enough to make even Stephen King shudder.

CNN senior political analyst William Schneider is our guide through the haunted house of presidential possibilities.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): It's getting pretty scary out there, and not just because it's Halloween. Think of all the scary scenarios we could end up with on Election Day.

Remember the 2000 Florida recount? That horror show lasted five weeks. This year we could have a lot of Floridas -- states with close results and disputed vote counts. With millions of newly registered voters, we're hearing some wild charges about registration fraud.

C. BOYDEN GRAY, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: That's why the NAACP got an assistant to hand out crack cocaine in return for registrations.

SCHNEIDER: Both sides have armies of lawyers ready to fire lawsuits at each other.

DAVID BOIES, GORE 2000 CAMPAIGN ATTORNEY: I think when you have as many lawyers that are involved on both sides, there is a danger that they all try to find something to do.

SCHNEIDER: Now, that's scary.

Want to hear something even scarier? There are many ways the electoral vote could end up in a tie -- 269 for Kerry, 269 for Bush. Then what? Then the election goes to the House of Representatives in January, the new House, to be elected Tuesday. Here's the spooky part. Every state gets one vote. Fifty-three representatives from California, one vote. A single member of Congress from Vermont, one vote. It's likely that most states will continue to have more Republicans than Democrats in the House next year. So Bush would probably win.

But consider the spectacle of a president being elected by politicians instead of the people. The new Senate would elect the vice president, one vote per senator. There is a chance the Democrats could end up with a majority in the Senate. Imagine President Bush and Vice President John Edwards.

Not only that, but if several states end up with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the House, those states might abstain from casting a presidential vote. It's possible neither Bush nor Kerry could get the required 26 votes in the House.

Then what? Then the new vice president, elected by the Senate, becomes acting president. He gets to act in his own horror movie.

(on camera): The Web site ancestry.com reports that both Bush and Kerry can trace their ancestry back to a 15th century Transylvanian ruler nicknamed Vlad the Imapler, this guy, the model for the original Count Dracula. Pretty scary, huh boys and girls?

Bill Schneider, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COSTELLO: I'm scared and a little confused by that story.

Thank you, Bill Schneider.

Here's what's all new in the next half hour of DAYBREAK.

The latest on the charges and counter charges over voter registrations in Ohio. Yes, we're going to scare you some more. A court decision on Republican challenges to voters' qualifications going right down to the wire. We'll take a look.

You are watching DAYBREAK.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

SUSAN L. TAYLOR, EDITOR DIRECTOR, "ESSENCE": I really care about what people are thinking and feeling and so I listen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Editorial director Susan Taylor has been tuning into the readers of "Essence" magazine for 34 years. Under her leadership, the magazine's brand has expanded worldwide and monthly readership has grown to more than eight million. Known for her inspirational speeches, Taylor has also written books motivating and uplifting women.

TAYLOR: Remaining humble is very, very important for people, and to understand that everyone in your life, in many ways, is a teacher. A hunger for learning and a hunger for knowledge and a hunger to share and to help other people better their lives, I think, is the thing that keeps you just moving forward and being what we may term as successful.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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