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Republicans' Winning Strategy; Dem's Sinking Ship?; Yasser Arafat's Health

Aired November 04, 2004 - 06:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."

Just this morning, we have word that Yasser Arafat, hospitalized in France, is in a coma. The Palestinian leader, suffering from a blood disorder yet to be diagnosed, slipped into that coma last night. Arafat was flown to Paris last Friday from his compound in the West Bank.

Court hearings are considered today and tomorrow in the Michael Jackson child molestation case, but Jackson is not expected to be there. The pop singer is trying to get District Attorney Thomas Sneddon removed from the case.

Election officials in at least five New Mexico counties are still counting ballots in Tuesday's election -- provisional, absentee or early voting ballots. In some of those counties, the counting may continue into next week.

Some amazing pictures to show you here. A volcano in eastern Iceland erupted earlier this week. No one was hurt, but the eruption sent a cloud of volcanic ash over Northern Europe, and a Dutch airline, KLM, had to cancel 59 flights as a result.

Wow! That's just so cool to see, Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: It is. The ash in the air is actually why we were watching Mount St. Helens so closely out in the West for a while when it was on the verge of eruption, too, because you don't want to be flying or anywhere near that ash. It is so very course and abrasive on the engines that, in fact, the engines can stall if you get too close. And clearly that's not good for an airliner.

COSTELLO: Clearly not.

MYERS: So that's why they canceled those flights. Exactly, Carol.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: Targeting voter anxieties, that's what many analysts are saying was the Republicans' winning strategy in this election, specifically fears about security and the future of traditional values.

Our Louise Schiavone has more for you.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): President Bush connected with voters anxious about not only national security, but also with what many people call "traditional values."

While Democrats made their case on the economy and Iraq, GOP strategists say they knew that they had to energize conservative voters with an appeal to their values.

BOB RUSBOLDT, POLITICAL ANALYST: The president knew that there was an issue out there as far as values. And you saw that there were 11 states that had gay marriage amendments on the ballot to change their constitutions to say that marriage is a union of one man and one woman. And I think that the conservative base turned out, primarily for a lot of different reasons, but primarily because of the values issue.

SCHIAVONE: The top three issues for Kerry voters included the economy and jobs, Iraq and health care.

JOHN SWEENEY, PRESIDENT, AFL-CIO: Union members voted two to one for John Kerry nationwide, and the margin was a little bigger in battleground states.

SCHIAVONE: The most important issues for Bush voters were moral values and terrorism. Nonetheless, union officials say workers and their candidate will not be outdone on issues of faith and values.

JEFF GARIN, PETER HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES: President Bush had a 21-point advantage among voters who attend church services weekly or more often than that. But among union members, who are in the exact same category, they ended up voting by a 12-point margin for Senator Kerry.

SCHIAVONE (on camera): Analysts will be dissecting the lessons of this election for some time. But the results do suggest that voters anxious about the security of the nation place a high premium on the security of traditional values.

Louise Schiavone, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: After the election, there is no doubt the Democratic Party is in a bit of trouble. Some say it's out of touch with middle America. So what exactly happened on November 3? We want to explore that issue further.

Joining us from the right, Joel Mowbray, who is a syndicated columnist and reporting, and from the left, Peter Beinart of "The New Republic."

Welcome to you both.

PETER BEINART, EDITOR, "THE NEW REPUBLIC": Glad to be here.

JOEL MOWBRAY, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Who should I start with? Let's start with you, Peter. Define for us what a typical Democratic voter is?

BEINART: Gosh. Well, we know the Democratic Party has a huge advantage among racial minorities, and also has an advantage among single women, and tends to have an advantage amongst, now increasingly, people with college degrees. That's where the party has its strength. Where the party is weaker is amongst middle and working-class white men in particular, and to some degree middle and working-class white women.

COSTELLO: But isn't that bizarre, Joel?

MOWBRAY: Bizarre how?

COSTELLO: Bizarre how? You would think that the Democratic Party, you know, representing unions and the like, like in the past that they would be getting those kinds of voters.

MOWBRAY: Well, you know, remember, people aren't voting for their labor bosses' concerns; they're voting for their own. And so that would explain why you have people in that demographic that tend to vote Republican.

Look, there has been a seismic shift in the makeup of the rank and file of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the last 25 years. It used to be that you had anybody who is considered maybe wealthier, with a college degree, who would be kind of the base of the Republican Party. You've had a Republican Party that moved from the country club to the racetrack. You have more NASCAR fans, you know, in the Republican constituency than ever would have been dreamed possible 25 years ago.

I think you have a lot of people -- look, this is also part of having the South and the Midwest, the meat-and-potatoes kind of voters. These are the people who have come to the Republican Party starting under Reagan, and it continued with Newt Gingrich in the Republican revolution of '94.

And I think we've seen between 2002 when Bush went out campaigning hard and then this election that it's not a fluke. These people have really become part of the fabric of the Republican Party.

COSTELLO: So, Peter, we ask you. What can the Democratic Party do? Does it need to redefine itself? Does it need to say different words in the speeches? What needs to be done?

BEINART: Well, it's a difficult question. Certainly, the Democratic Party needs a candidate I think would connect more naturally to culturally traditionally voters. We found that historically Democrats from the South, who come from an environment that is more religious, tend to do better. Bill Clinton certainly did better.

John Kerry coming from Massachusetts, I think like his predecessor, Michael Dukakis from Massachusetts, had real challenges in speaking easily about his faith and connected to the more culturally traditionally voters.

But I think the Democratic Party is never going to win those people on those issues itself. They have to win them by showing that they have a message on the economy and on national security that's credible. I think that the Democrats can't win on cultural values. They have to kind of deflect those issues, and then convince people that they can provide real benefits for people's lives, and they can keep the country safe.

And I think that will be the path -- look, this is still a very divided -- this is not a Republican-majority nation. It's still a country that is divided almost evenly. And if the Democrats run a better candidate and have a better message, they have certainly a fighting chance to win in elections in the future.

COSTELLO: Well, let's talk about that better candidate. And Joel, I want to ask you. Who do the Republicans fear on the Democratic side?

MOWBRAY: At the moment, you know, I don't really know. I mean, you have a lot of rising Democratic stars. Take, for example, the governor of Michigan, who cannot run for president because she was born in Canada. I think, you know, there are a number of people out there.

But the real problem with the Democratic Party -- and this is what the Republicans are going to be able to keep exploiting -- is the fact that the Democratic Party is in the claws and the clutches of some pretty hard-left constituencies, particularly on abortion issues and on gun issues.

You know, the Democratic Party started to allow some more congressional candidates who are pro-life or pro-gun. But remember, it wasn't that long ago that the base of the Democratic Party, even in terms of elected officials in Congress, were pro-life and pro-gun. That's not true anymore.

And on the abortion question, the Democratic Party, I mean, much like the Republican Party on the flip side, but the Democratic Party cannot ever have a pro-life candidate. Evan Bayh four years ago, one of the reasons he was bounced from the short list to be with Al Gore is that he opposed the ban on partial-birth abortion. I mean, hardly being a pro-life senator, but he had at least some -- you know, some support for restrictions on abortions. And that was just too much for all of the leftist groups out there.

COSTELLO: Interesting. So...

BEINART: And they wanted him bounced, and they got it.

COSTELLO: So, Peter, let me ask you the same question. Will we see Ted Kennedy being minimized within the Democratic Party?

BEINART: Well, I think that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are both sides of the same coin on abortion. Both of them have a litmus test at the national level. At the state level, as I'm sure Joel knows, most of the Democrat senators, in fact the candidates in this election in the South, were pro-gun and many of them were anti-abortion. So at the state level, the Democratic Party has no problem in more conservative states with running candidates who are on the other side of an issue.

And, frankly, I don't think guns and abortion were the critical issues in this election. I think the gay marriage loomed much larger. Gay marriage is the newer issue, I think, the one that you had on state ballots in many parts of the country. And I think that is the issue where Democrats right now are getting hurt very badly.

But the good news for Democrats, I think, is that over the longer term -- because we know that younger voters are much more supportive of gay marriage and civil unions than older voters. But over the longer term, just as we saw with civil rights, this is an issue on which Americans' values will change, and the Democratic Party will no longer be out of the mainstream as to some degree as it is today.

COSTELLO: And that is the last word. Joel Mowbray and Peter Beinart joining us this morning.

BEINART: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Thanks to you both.

While the rest of the world has its eyes on election results, a courtroom in California was focused on Scott Peterson. The jury has the case. We'll talk to our legal analyst, Kendall Coffey, about what they could decide.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: We have another update for you on Yasser Arafat. As you know, he's in a Paris hospital being treated for some kind of blood disorder. Earlier, we told you that Yasser Arafat had slipped into a coma. We got that information from Palestinian sources. But now those same sources are saying Yasser Arafat is not in a coma, but he has slipped in and out of consciousness since last night. We don't know what state he is right now, but, of course, we'll keep you posted as to the Palestinian leader's condition.

The time for deliberations has come in the Scott Peterson trial. Jurors finally got the case after more than five months of testimony. In closing arguments, Peterson's defense attorney told jurors to rule on the evidence and to forget whether or not they hate Scott Peterson. But is that easy to do? And how long could these deliberations take?

For some answers, we're joined by our legal analyst, Kendall Coffey. He's in Miami this morning.

Good morning -- Kendall.

KENDALL COFFEY, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Hey, good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: So the jury was out, what, four hours yesterday?

COFFEY: Four hours, and certainly being sequestered suggests that they might work a little bit faster, feel a little more pressure to get to a decision. But there may be a division on this jury, so there's no assurance that they reach a decision quickly. I think if they do reach a fast verdict, it's going to be guilty.

COSTELLO: Ooh, you think there will be a division. Tell us more.

COFFEY: If there is a fast verdict, it's going to be guilty, because I think, Carol, there's certainly at least a number of jurors that are strongly leaning toward convicting Scott Peterson.

COSTELLO: Well, you've watched the entire trial. You've paid attention to all of the details coming out. What is your sense?

COFFEY: Well, it's going to come down to a couple of things. First of all, there is no strong explanation for how Laci Peterson was murdered if it wasn't by Scott Peterson. But one of the big wild cards here is juror No. 5, who has experience as a doctor and as a lawyer. And if he's persuaded by the medical evidence from the defense expert as to time of death, other jurors may follow. That would lead the path to acquittal.

The other thing he could do is get the jurors to focus on the circumstantial evidence instruction on the reasonable doubt issue, because as a lawyer he might get them to focus on the fact that there really are some questions in the state's case, even though certainly most indications are pointing toward guilt.

COSTELLO: When all is said and done, how do you think the prosecution did? And how do you think the defense did?

COFFEY: Well, the defense did extremely well. I think, you know, some were disappointed that they didn't have more of a case in the end. But I think the reality is they did the best possible job, especially punching holes with the prosecution.

With the prosecution, they started slowly, stumbling and bumbling, but by the end they came on strong. And I think by most accounts the closing argument from the prosecution was very compelling.

COSTELLO: You know, we were seeing pictures, and I should have explained to our audience. Those are pictures from inside the courtroom taken recently during closing arguments, and that is the first time any of us has seen Scott Peterson, you know, on camera for a very long time. He looks pretty much the same to me, Kendall. COFFEY: Yes. Well, he may have lost a little weight. Prison isn't great for anyone's health. They'll be back in the courtroom today to determine whether or not the verdict is going to be seen on television or whether the verdict will be heard just on audio hookups. That's the one remaining issue in terms of how this case is going to be presented to the public.

COSTELLO: Kendall Coffey live from Miami this morning, thank you.

In other stories across America this Thursday, some Washington commuters can expect delays this morning because of this Metro rail crash. Twenty people were hurt, but the casualties could have been worse. Metro officials say a train operator saved lives by quickly ordering passengers of his train, when he saw an empty train backing into them he ordered them out of his train. The NTSC is now investigating.

Surrendering to the news media in Oxford, Ohio, that's what this former fugitive thought he was doing. Jerry Wright (ph) had escaped a Tennessee jail, where he was being held on murder and drug charges. He later arranged his surrender to a television station, but police posing as a news team arrested Wright (ph) and took him to jail.

An historic courthouse in Prince Georges County, Maryland, has been gutted by fire while undergoing renovations. Firefighters let the blaze burn while protecting the newer courthouse next door. Most of the important artifacts of the 123-year-old courthouse had been removed before the fire started.

As you sit down to the breakfast table, consider this: Most of you probably do not get enough vitamin D, D as in dog. How can you fix that? Our registered dietitian, Lisa Drayer, will be along next to tell you. You are watching DAYBREAK.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Welcome back to DAYBREAK.

We were going to talk about vitamin D with Lisa Drayer, but we do have new word on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition. We've been getting conflicting reports all morning about whether he slipped into a coma or whether he simply lost consciousness through the night and the morning.

Our Christiane Amanpour is live in London. Maybe she can clarify things for us.

How is Yasser Arafat -- Christiane?

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the subject of intense political spin and debate and conflicting reports, as you know, for the last week. My sources close to the Palestinian leadership have told me ever since he's been rushed to Paris, which is over the period of the last week, that his health has severely deteriorated, that he is not in control of his mental faculties, and that he obviously does have a very serious blood problem that has not yet been specifically pinpointed.

However, I've also been told that those very few Palestinian officials who have access to the hospital and to Yasser Arafat have told my sources that overnight he was rushed to the intensive care unit, they say, unconscious. And that he was unconscious at least an hour or so ago.

I'm not a doctor. I'm unable to tell you the difference between unconscious and coma. But the fact is that it is being described as very critical. So that's for the health issue.

He has -- you know, there is a team of doctors there who, we are being told, that they will be giving us a proper diagnosis and statement on his health. That has not yet happened. I'm being told that that is part of the whole political crisis around this as well -- Carol.

COSTELLO: I was just going to ask you about why they don't just come out and say what's wrong with Yasser Arafat and tell people specifically what his condition is, because the people in the Palestinian territories would certainly want to know.

AMANPOUR: That's absolutely right. From what I can gather, Arafat loyalists, who are around him in Paris and elsewhere, want to keep issuing orders in his name as if he were still able to do so and be able to talk to ministries and others. And therefore, they do not at this moment or up until now have not wanted a specific medical report to come out, because in the Palestinian basic law there are two provisions.

One, if the president dies, then his powers revert for a period of 60 days to the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

No. 2, if the president of the Palestinian Authority is incapacitated because of medical reasons, a team of four doctors must pronounce that fact, must make that public, and then say that he's incapacitated. And, again, his powers effectively pass for a period of 60 days to the speaker of the Legislative Council.

So that is the provisions that is in -- that is locked in. Members of the Palestinian leadership, some of them want that to be made public so that they can continue an orderly transfer of power and authority. And others, as I say, we're being told, would rather be able to keep issuing orders in Arafat's name for the time being.

There is also a lot of money apparently at stake, a huge bank account which only Arafat has control of, and, as I say, a political power struggle somewhat under way. Even though in the Palestinian territories right now both Abu Mazen and Abu Ala, who have divided the relevant portfolios between them, are carrying on with business as usual.

COSTELLO: Christiane Amanpour live from London this morning. Thank you for clarifying things for us. We appreciate it.

We're going to take a short break. We'll be back with more on DAYBREAK.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: You know, so many people have been e-mailing us this morning about our e-mail "Question of the Day," which we asked in the 5:00 a.m. hour, by the way.

MYERS: Right.

COSTELLO: The question was: Can we unite as a country? We heard from President Bush and John Kerry about how they wanted to unite a very divided country. But is that really possible? And we've been getting a lot of interesting responses.

MYERS: Clearly, Europe may not think so.

COSTELLO: No, no. We'll go to those papers later.

MYERS: Oh, all right, OK, OK. I thought you said to go first.

Carol, this is from Tom in Lackawanna, Pennsylvania: "I don't see how the country can actually unite. The Democrats and Republicans are now putting their own interests instead of the good of the people ahead of everything else. It's time for a truly independent third party."

COSTELLO: Well, see, that's an interesting thought.

Here's one. This is from John from New York. He says: "President Bush promised to unite the country four years ago. He didn't mean it then; he doesn't mean it now. He'll just try to push through his conservative agenda."

And we had a lot of people who wrote in to say the country is so divided in their value systems that it's really, in part, up to them to do it.

Quickly, let's show you the papers over in Britain this morning. This is from a tabloid paper, the "Daily Mirror." And you can read it for yourself as we say good-bye as "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.

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Aired November 4, 2004 - 06:31   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."

Just this morning, we have word that Yasser Arafat, hospitalized in France, is in a coma. The Palestinian leader, suffering from a blood disorder yet to be diagnosed, slipped into that coma last night. Arafat was flown to Paris last Friday from his compound in the West Bank.

Court hearings are considered today and tomorrow in the Michael Jackson child molestation case, but Jackson is not expected to be there. The pop singer is trying to get District Attorney Thomas Sneddon removed from the case.

Election officials in at least five New Mexico counties are still counting ballots in Tuesday's election -- provisional, absentee or early voting ballots. In some of those counties, the counting may continue into next week.

Some amazing pictures to show you here. A volcano in eastern Iceland erupted earlier this week. No one was hurt, but the eruption sent a cloud of volcanic ash over Northern Europe, and a Dutch airline, KLM, had to cancel 59 flights as a result.

Wow! That's just so cool to see, Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: It is. The ash in the air is actually why we were watching Mount St. Helens so closely out in the West for a while when it was on the verge of eruption, too, because you don't want to be flying or anywhere near that ash. It is so very course and abrasive on the engines that, in fact, the engines can stall if you get too close. And clearly that's not good for an airliner.

COSTELLO: Clearly not.

MYERS: So that's why they canceled those flights. Exactly, Carol.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: Targeting voter anxieties, that's what many analysts are saying was the Republicans' winning strategy in this election, specifically fears about security and the future of traditional values.

Our Louise Schiavone has more for you.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): President Bush connected with voters anxious about not only national security, but also with what many people call "traditional values."

While Democrats made their case on the economy and Iraq, GOP strategists say they knew that they had to energize conservative voters with an appeal to their values.

BOB RUSBOLDT, POLITICAL ANALYST: The president knew that there was an issue out there as far as values. And you saw that there were 11 states that had gay marriage amendments on the ballot to change their constitutions to say that marriage is a union of one man and one woman. And I think that the conservative base turned out, primarily for a lot of different reasons, but primarily because of the values issue.

SCHIAVONE: The top three issues for Kerry voters included the economy and jobs, Iraq and health care.

JOHN SWEENEY, PRESIDENT, AFL-CIO: Union members voted two to one for John Kerry nationwide, and the margin was a little bigger in battleground states.

SCHIAVONE: The most important issues for Bush voters were moral values and terrorism. Nonetheless, union officials say workers and their candidate will not be outdone on issues of faith and values.

JEFF GARIN, PETER HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES: President Bush had a 21-point advantage among voters who attend church services weekly or more often than that. But among union members, who are in the exact same category, they ended up voting by a 12-point margin for Senator Kerry.

SCHIAVONE (on camera): Analysts will be dissecting the lessons of this election for some time. But the results do suggest that voters anxious about the security of the nation place a high premium on the security of traditional values.

Louise Schiavone, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: After the election, there is no doubt the Democratic Party is in a bit of trouble. Some say it's out of touch with middle America. So what exactly happened on November 3? We want to explore that issue further.

Joining us from the right, Joel Mowbray, who is a syndicated columnist and reporting, and from the left, Peter Beinart of "The New Republic."

Welcome to you both.

PETER BEINART, EDITOR, "THE NEW REPUBLIC": Glad to be here.

JOEL MOWBRAY, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Who should I start with? Let's start with you, Peter. Define for us what a typical Democratic voter is?

BEINART: Gosh. Well, we know the Democratic Party has a huge advantage among racial minorities, and also has an advantage among single women, and tends to have an advantage amongst, now increasingly, people with college degrees. That's where the party has its strength. Where the party is weaker is amongst middle and working-class white men in particular, and to some degree middle and working-class white women.

COSTELLO: But isn't that bizarre, Joel?

MOWBRAY: Bizarre how?

COSTELLO: Bizarre how? You would think that the Democratic Party, you know, representing unions and the like, like in the past that they would be getting those kinds of voters.

MOWBRAY: Well, you know, remember, people aren't voting for their labor bosses' concerns; they're voting for their own. And so that would explain why you have people in that demographic that tend to vote Republican.

Look, there has been a seismic shift in the makeup of the rank and file of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the last 25 years. It used to be that you had anybody who is considered maybe wealthier, with a college degree, who would be kind of the base of the Republican Party. You've had a Republican Party that moved from the country club to the racetrack. You have more NASCAR fans, you know, in the Republican constituency than ever would have been dreamed possible 25 years ago.

I think you have a lot of people -- look, this is also part of having the South and the Midwest, the meat-and-potatoes kind of voters. These are the people who have come to the Republican Party starting under Reagan, and it continued with Newt Gingrich in the Republican revolution of '94.

And I think we've seen between 2002 when Bush went out campaigning hard and then this election that it's not a fluke. These people have really become part of the fabric of the Republican Party.

COSTELLO: So, Peter, we ask you. What can the Democratic Party do? Does it need to redefine itself? Does it need to say different words in the speeches? What needs to be done?

BEINART: Well, it's a difficult question. Certainly, the Democratic Party needs a candidate I think would connect more naturally to culturally traditionally voters. We found that historically Democrats from the South, who come from an environment that is more religious, tend to do better. Bill Clinton certainly did better.

John Kerry coming from Massachusetts, I think like his predecessor, Michael Dukakis from Massachusetts, had real challenges in speaking easily about his faith and connected to the more culturally traditionally voters.

But I think the Democratic Party is never going to win those people on those issues itself. They have to win them by showing that they have a message on the economy and on national security that's credible. I think that the Democrats can't win on cultural values. They have to kind of deflect those issues, and then convince people that they can provide real benefits for people's lives, and they can keep the country safe.

And I think that will be the path -- look, this is still a very divided -- this is not a Republican-majority nation. It's still a country that is divided almost evenly. And if the Democrats run a better candidate and have a better message, they have certainly a fighting chance to win in elections in the future.

COSTELLO: Well, let's talk about that better candidate. And Joel, I want to ask you. Who do the Republicans fear on the Democratic side?

MOWBRAY: At the moment, you know, I don't really know. I mean, you have a lot of rising Democratic stars. Take, for example, the governor of Michigan, who cannot run for president because she was born in Canada. I think, you know, there are a number of people out there.

But the real problem with the Democratic Party -- and this is what the Republicans are going to be able to keep exploiting -- is the fact that the Democratic Party is in the claws and the clutches of some pretty hard-left constituencies, particularly on abortion issues and on gun issues.

You know, the Democratic Party started to allow some more congressional candidates who are pro-life or pro-gun. But remember, it wasn't that long ago that the base of the Democratic Party, even in terms of elected officials in Congress, were pro-life and pro-gun. That's not true anymore.

And on the abortion question, the Democratic Party, I mean, much like the Republican Party on the flip side, but the Democratic Party cannot ever have a pro-life candidate. Evan Bayh four years ago, one of the reasons he was bounced from the short list to be with Al Gore is that he opposed the ban on partial-birth abortion. I mean, hardly being a pro-life senator, but he had at least some -- you know, some support for restrictions on abortions. And that was just too much for all of the leftist groups out there.

COSTELLO: Interesting. So...

BEINART: And they wanted him bounced, and they got it.

COSTELLO: So, Peter, let me ask you the same question. Will we see Ted Kennedy being minimized within the Democratic Party?

BEINART: Well, I think that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are both sides of the same coin on abortion. Both of them have a litmus test at the national level. At the state level, as I'm sure Joel knows, most of the Democrat senators, in fact the candidates in this election in the South, were pro-gun and many of them were anti-abortion. So at the state level, the Democratic Party has no problem in more conservative states with running candidates who are on the other side of an issue.

And, frankly, I don't think guns and abortion were the critical issues in this election. I think the gay marriage loomed much larger. Gay marriage is the newer issue, I think, the one that you had on state ballots in many parts of the country. And I think that is the issue where Democrats right now are getting hurt very badly.

But the good news for Democrats, I think, is that over the longer term -- because we know that younger voters are much more supportive of gay marriage and civil unions than older voters. But over the longer term, just as we saw with civil rights, this is an issue on which Americans' values will change, and the Democratic Party will no longer be out of the mainstream as to some degree as it is today.

COSTELLO: And that is the last word. Joel Mowbray and Peter Beinart joining us this morning.

BEINART: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Thanks to you both.

While the rest of the world has its eyes on election results, a courtroom in California was focused on Scott Peterson. The jury has the case. We'll talk to our legal analyst, Kendall Coffey, about what they could decide.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: We have another update for you on Yasser Arafat. As you know, he's in a Paris hospital being treated for some kind of blood disorder. Earlier, we told you that Yasser Arafat had slipped into a coma. We got that information from Palestinian sources. But now those same sources are saying Yasser Arafat is not in a coma, but he has slipped in and out of consciousness since last night. We don't know what state he is right now, but, of course, we'll keep you posted as to the Palestinian leader's condition.

The time for deliberations has come in the Scott Peterson trial. Jurors finally got the case after more than five months of testimony. In closing arguments, Peterson's defense attorney told jurors to rule on the evidence and to forget whether or not they hate Scott Peterson. But is that easy to do? And how long could these deliberations take?

For some answers, we're joined by our legal analyst, Kendall Coffey. He's in Miami this morning.

Good morning -- Kendall.

KENDALL COFFEY, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Hey, good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: So the jury was out, what, four hours yesterday?

COFFEY: Four hours, and certainly being sequestered suggests that they might work a little bit faster, feel a little more pressure to get to a decision. But there may be a division on this jury, so there's no assurance that they reach a decision quickly. I think if they do reach a fast verdict, it's going to be guilty.

COSTELLO: Ooh, you think there will be a division. Tell us more.

COFFEY: If there is a fast verdict, it's going to be guilty, because I think, Carol, there's certainly at least a number of jurors that are strongly leaning toward convicting Scott Peterson.

COSTELLO: Well, you've watched the entire trial. You've paid attention to all of the details coming out. What is your sense?

COFFEY: Well, it's going to come down to a couple of things. First of all, there is no strong explanation for how Laci Peterson was murdered if it wasn't by Scott Peterson. But one of the big wild cards here is juror No. 5, who has experience as a doctor and as a lawyer. And if he's persuaded by the medical evidence from the defense expert as to time of death, other jurors may follow. That would lead the path to acquittal.

The other thing he could do is get the jurors to focus on the circumstantial evidence instruction on the reasonable doubt issue, because as a lawyer he might get them to focus on the fact that there really are some questions in the state's case, even though certainly most indications are pointing toward guilt.

COSTELLO: When all is said and done, how do you think the prosecution did? And how do you think the defense did?

COFFEY: Well, the defense did extremely well. I think, you know, some were disappointed that they didn't have more of a case in the end. But I think the reality is they did the best possible job, especially punching holes with the prosecution.

With the prosecution, they started slowly, stumbling and bumbling, but by the end they came on strong. And I think by most accounts the closing argument from the prosecution was very compelling.

COSTELLO: You know, we were seeing pictures, and I should have explained to our audience. Those are pictures from inside the courtroom taken recently during closing arguments, and that is the first time any of us has seen Scott Peterson, you know, on camera for a very long time. He looks pretty much the same to me, Kendall. COFFEY: Yes. Well, he may have lost a little weight. Prison isn't great for anyone's health. They'll be back in the courtroom today to determine whether or not the verdict is going to be seen on television or whether the verdict will be heard just on audio hookups. That's the one remaining issue in terms of how this case is going to be presented to the public.

COSTELLO: Kendall Coffey live from Miami this morning, thank you.

In other stories across America this Thursday, some Washington commuters can expect delays this morning because of this Metro rail crash. Twenty people were hurt, but the casualties could have been worse. Metro officials say a train operator saved lives by quickly ordering passengers of his train, when he saw an empty train backing into them he ordered them out of his train. The NTSC is now investigating.

Surrendering to the news media in Oxford, Ohio, that's what this former fugitive thought he was doing. Jerry Wright (ph) had escaped a Tennessee jail, where he was being held on murder and drug charges. He later arranged his surrender to a television station, but police posing as a news team arrested Wright (ph) and took him to jail.

An historic courthouse in Prince Georges County, Maryland, has been gutted by fire while undergoing renovations. Firefighters let the blaze burn while protecting the newer courthouse next door. Most of the important artifacts of the 123-year-old courthouse had been removed before the fire started.

As you sit down to the breakfast table, consider this: Most of you probably do not get enough vitamin D, D as in dog. How can you fix that? Our registered dietitian, Lisa Drayer, will be along next to tell you. You are watching DAYBREAK.

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COSTELLO: Welcome back to DAYBREAK.

We were going to talk about vitamin D with Lisa Drayer, but we do have new word on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition. We've been getting conflicting reports all morning about whether he slipped into a coma or whether he simply lost consciousness through the night and the morning.

Our Christiane Amanpour is live in London. Maybe she can clarify things for us.

How is Yasser Arafat -- Christiane?

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the subject of intense political spin and debate and conflicting reports, as you know, for the last week. My sources close to the Palestinian leadership have told me ever since he's been rushed to Paris, which is over the period of the last week, that his health has severely deteriorated, that he is not in control of his mental faculties, and that he obviously does have a very serious blood problem that has not yet been specifically pinpointed.

However, I've also been told that those very few Palestinian officials who have access to the hospital and to Yasser Arafat have told my sources that overnight he was rushed to the intensive care unit, they say, unconscious. And that he was unconscious at least an hour or so ago.

I'm not a doctor. I'm unable to tell you the difference between unconscious and coma. But the fact is that it is being described as very critical. So that's for the health issue.

He has -- you know, there is a team of doctors there who, we are being told, that they will be giving us a proper diagnosis and statement on his health. That has not yet happened. I'm being told that that is part of the whole political crisis around this as well -- Carol.

COSTELLO: I was just going to ask you about why they don't just come out and say what's wrong with Yasser Arafat and tell people specifically what his condition is, because the people in the Palestinian territories would certainly want to know.

AMANPOUR: That's absolutely right. From what I can gather, Arafat loyalists, who are around him in Paris and elsewhere, want to keep issuing orders in his name as if he were still able to do so and be able to talk to ministries and others. And therefore, they do not at this moment or up until now have not wanted a specific medical report to come out, because in the Palestinian basic law there are two provisions.

One, if the president dies, then his powers revert for a period of 60 days to the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

No. 2, if the president of the Palestinian Authority is incapacitated because of medical reasons, a team of four doctors must pronounce that fact, must make that public, and then say that he's incapacitated. And, again, his powers effectively pass for a period of 60 days to the speaker of the Legislative Council.

So that is the provisions that is in -- that is locked in. Members of the Palestinian leadership, some of them want that to be made public so that they can continue an orderly transfer of power and authority. And others, as I say, we're being told, would rather be able to keep issuing orders in Arafat's name for the time being.

There is also a lot of money apparently at stake, a huge bank account which only Arafat has control of, and, as I say, a political power struggle somewhat under way. Even though in the Palestinian territories right now both Abu Mazen and Abu Ala, who have divided the relevant portfolios between them, are carrying on with business as usual.

COSTELLO: Christiane Amanpour live from London this morning. Thank you for clarifying things for us. We appreciate it.

We're going to take a short break. We'll be back with more on DAYBREAK.

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COSTELLO: You know, so many people have been e-mailing us this morning about our e-mail "Question of the Day," which we asked in the 5:00 a.m. hour, by the way.

MYERS: Right.

COSTELLO: The question was: Can we unite as a country? We heard from President Bush and John Kerry about how they wanted to unite a very divided country. But is that really possible? And we've been getting a lot of interesting responses.

MYERS: Clearly, Europe may not think so.

COSTELLO: No, no. We'll go to those papers later.

MYERS: Oh, all right, OK, OK. I thought you said to go first.

Carol, this is from Tom in Lackawanna, Pennsylvania: "I don't see how the country can actually unite. The Democrats and Republicans are now putting their own interests instead of the good of the people ahead of everything else. It's time for a truly independent third party."

COSTELLO: Well, see, that's an interesting thought.

Here's one. This is from John from New York. He says: "President Bush promised to unite the country four years ago. He didn't mean it then; he doesn't mean it now. He'll just try to push through his conservative agenda."

And we had a lot of people who wrote in to say the country is so divided in their value systems that it's really, in part, up to them to do it.

Quickly, let's show you the papers over in Britain this morning. This is from a tabloid paper, the "Daily Mirror." And you can read it for yourself as we say good-bye as "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.

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