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CNN Live At Daybreak

Hurricane Wilma Spurs Evacuations; Political Plays; Weight Loss Surgery

Aired October 20, 2005 - 06:29   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: From the Time Warner center in New York, this is DAYBREAK with Carol Costello.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. Thank you for waking up with us. Jacqui will be along in a moment with your forecast.

Also coming up this half-hour, people throughout Florida are preparing for the impending arrival of Hurricane Wilma. We'll have a live report from Punta Gorda. It has already seen the worst.

And we'll tell you why some senators want Harriet Miers to try again on her Supreme Court questionnaire.

But first, "Now in the News."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says he's concerned about China's nuclear strike capability and its military build-up. Rumsfeld wrapped up a three-day visit to China this morning. He's now heading to South Korea.

There may be new hope today in the fight against breast cancer. Three limited studies found the drug, Perceptin, to be very effective against an early form of breast cancer. The drug has previously proven effective in treating other advanced forms of cancer.

Someone Oregon may have a little extra spring in their step today. That's because they're rich. That's where the winning $340 million Powerball lottery ticket was purchased. One winning ticket purchased. So, check your tickets anyway. The winning numbers are 7, 21, 43, 44 and 49, the Powerball number, 29.

Oh, no jackpot here. We've been watching Hurricane Wilma all morning long. Jacqui Jeras tells us where it is.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I know. In Oregon, huh?

COSTELLO: Oregon.

JERAS: Yes, I didn't win that either, Carol. Oh, well. (INAUDIBLE) here I am this morning, right? Glad to be here, though, actually and happy to be on the show with you, at least for a while.

Wilma has been weakening. It is down to a category 4 hurricane right now, 150-mile-per-hour winds. It's about 195 miles to the south and east of Cozumel. And you are witnessing right now an eye wall replacement cycle. That's what we call this. The center of circulation, the eye of this storm, it looked like a pinhole yesterday and throughout much of the overnight. In fact, the eye was only between two and four nautical miles at times. It's tough to pick it out now.

And you can see this outer rain now beginning to develop. That is a new eye wall that's forming that's going to be about 40 miles wide.

And all of this orange that you see on the inside, that's all going to go away. That's going to collapse. So that is why this storm is weakening.

And then we're going to get that ice skater effect where it brings itself in. The storm is going to tighten up, and then it will continue to strengthen.

So, even though we're down a little bit today, at this time we're expecting later on, it's very possible this is going to ramp right back up and become a category 5 hurricane once again. So watch for additional changes and fluctuations and intensity, which is very common with this storm.

Computer models forecasts have been changing a little bit over the last 12-plus hours or so. And our in-house model is showing this storm moving in and making landfall now over the Yucatan peninsula, weakening very dramatically and really slowing down quite a bit.

Now, this is only one solution. At this time, the National Hurricane Center is slowing it down through this area, but still keeping it near the tip of the Yucatan peninsula and then taking that sharp right-hand turn towards Florida.

Landfall, too, by the way, has been backed up. If you haven't been watching since maybe midday yesterday, we're looking at landfall is more likely now in Florida because of this slowdown likely on Sunday rather than Saturday -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Thank you, Jacqui. We'll get back to you.

Now let's take a look at how people are preparing for Wilma. Resort areas along the coast of Mexico are asking tourists to pack up and go, or at least get ready to leave in a hurry. The evacuation of tourists from the Florida Keys is already under way. And a mandatory evacuation order for full-time residents could come as early as noon today.

People are boarding up and stocking up in other parts of Florida as well. FEMA says they have emergency supplies set up in three cities -- Jacksonville, Lakeland and Homestead.

Communities all along Florida's southern Gulf Coast are bracing for the worst. After all, they've seen it before. Just last year, three major storms cut through the state, leaving an indelible mark on the landscape and the people. CNN's Susan Candiotti takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For Florida, 2005 has already been a tough hurricane season, starting with a blast from Dennis. Then Katrina made lives miserable before it headed to the Gulf Coast and Rita blasted the Florida Keys.

Flashback to 2004, when four storms ripped through the Sunshine State -- Jeanne and Ivan, Frances, and the one that started it all, Charley, a year ago August. It sucker-punched Punta Gorda, hitting farther south than first expected.

And more than a year later, FEMA Village is one of its most visible legacies. Nearly 500 trailers remain.

JERRY SAWYER, FEMA VILLAGE RESIDENT: The nerves that were frazzled before have now frayed and broken. I mean, it's -- you're on your end.

CANDIOTTI: Jerry and Sue Sawyer and their three children lost everything to Charley and remain homeless. With Wilma on the way, they appear shell-shocked.

SUE SAWYER, FEMA VILLAGE RESIDENT: I'm petrified. I'm panicked. I'm petrified. I don't know what to do. People in this park can't prepare. There's really no way for us to prepare.

CANDIOTTI: FEMA says it's telling residents to find somewhere else to go. There are no shelters in Charlotte County, only bare bones sites of last resort.

The Sawyers may head south -- yes, south -- to a relative's home.

J. SAWYER: It sounds funny to head into the storm, but at least it's not sitting around in basically a cardboard box.

CANDIOTTI: One thing Sue Sawyer will not leave without, her father's ashes. He died just before Charley.

S. SAWYER: He's going with me. He's going with me.

CANDIOTTI: Susan Candiotti, CNN, Punta Gorda, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: We rarely get an up close and personal look at the men and women serving in Iraq, their emotions, their families. But a new documentary is changing that.

Miles O'Brien joins us now for a look at what's coming on "AMERICAN MORNING."

Good morning -- Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Carol.

Yes, Kelly Wallace is going to look at that. It's an extraordinary look at National Guard troops as they make their way into Iraq and all that they endure over there.

We're also going to talk about the Iceman. Did you read about this Iceman story, Carol?

COSTELLO: No, I did not.

M. O'BRIEN: Ice climbers, California, come upon an entombed body. It turns out it was probably a World War II aviator. We'll tell you how they're going to forensically determine who this person might be. And, of course...

COSTELLO: Oh.

M. O'BRIEN: There it is, right there. See, look at that. It's really...

COSTELLO: That's a nice breakfast picture.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

All right, let's move on. This is not much better for your breakfast. A shark attack. You've heard about this, right? A 20- year-old surfer?

COSTELLO: Yes.

M. O'BRIEN: Did you hear about this? No?

COSTELLO: No. Go ahead. You tell.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, this is good. This is good. I'm glad to give you some new things to talk about. Look at the board there. Her leg looks a lot worse from pretty much the calf all the way up to the thigh she has a gash, but has her legs still with her. We're going to talk to a surfer who was with her, as well as the doctor who treated her about the latest shark attack.

That's just some of what we have in store on "AMERICAN MORNING." And we'll see you very shortly.

COSTELLO: Yes, it sounds interesting. Thank you, Miles.

An arrest warrant has been issued for Representative Tom DeLay. The former House majority leader is expected to turn himself in to Texas authorities later today. It's the next step in DeLay's felony indictment on criminal conspiracy and money laundering charges.

Let's get more details now from our senior political correspondent, Bill Schneider.

Good morning -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: So, Mr. DeLay will actually be fingerprinted, and he'll have mug shot taken?

SCHNEIDER: Apparently that is the case. When you get arrested, you get booked. And he's going to have to appear in a courthouse, which he can do in his home district near Houston rather than in Austin, where he was indicted by a grand jury.

But believe me, there will be a lot of press around. And everybody will be trying to get a copy of that mug shot.

COSTELLO: Oh, you know that mug shot is going to show up on the Internet somewhere.

SCHNEIDER: It will probably show up in newspapers. This is clearly an effort to embarrass Mr. DeLay. It's a routine matter for a judge to issue an arrest warrant after someone has been indicated. But it could be waived -- my understanding is from attorneys who know these matters, it could be waived by the prosecutor and often is in a white-collar case.

But in this case, the prosecutor decided that they could just follow the letter of the law and go ahead and have the man arrested.

COSTELLO: OK. So, we know that the prosecutor in this case is a Democrat. And we know that Tom DeLay has accused him of playing politics with this indictment. So, why is the prosecutor doing this? Isn't this lending credence to DeLay's charges?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it could be doing exactly that. But clearly, this is a very personal, very bitter war between two very high-profile men -- the Republican, Tom Delay, the target of the investigation who has been indicted and now arrested, and the high-profile prosecutor, the Travis County district attorney, Ronnie Earl.

Each side is claiming there is partisanship going on. Clearly, there is political theater going on. This is an accusation, a set of charges, that is very high-profile for both sides.

COSTELLO: OK. So, Tom DeLay has already stepped aside as the majority leader, but he's still serving in Congress. So, what happens now after that mug shot becomes public and things get ever hotter?

SCHNEIDER: Well, eventually, of course, he's going to either have to face trial or get the charges dropped. Tom DeLay is trying to do that as quickly as possible to get this case resolved before -- he hopes before the end of this year, because he'd like to resume his position as majority leader. His deputy, Roy Blunt, has become temporary majority leader in the House.

The question he's going to face all of his Republican colleagues in the House: Do they want him back in that very important position, the number two man in the House of Representatives, as the face of the Republican majority after he's been indicted and arrested...

COSTELLO: Yes, but, Bill, why...

SCHNEIDER: ... even if he's not convicted?

COSTELLO: Why would they want him back? He was a very powerful figure. He was called "the Hammer" after all. Some Republicans didn't like, you know, some of his bills that he wanted to push through. So, why would they reinstate him?

SCHNEIDER: Because he is a very effective fund-raiser, who is very skillful at holding the Republican majority together and getting what he wants. Remember the Terri Schiavo case. He was one of the leaders in campaigning for that bill to be passed.

This is a very serious matter, because he's one of the few people who can hold that party, which has become increasingly divided and fractious, together. It's particularly important for President Bush, because he's facing a revolt among Republicans over his nomination of Harriet Miers in the Senate and over spending in the House of Representatives.

And he could always rely on Tom DeLay for kind of authority, control, discipline. And DeLay's Republican colleagues could rely on him to raise money.

So, without him, there's a problem of how they're going to really hold together. Who is going to hold them together?

COSTELLO: Interesting. Bill Schneider joining us live this morning. Thank you, Bill.

Still on the subject of politics, Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers gets a request for a redo. The top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee have asked Miers for fuller answers to more than a third of the questions on a committee questionnaire. They want more information about a variety of topics, including bar and court admissions, potential conflicts of interest and constitutional issues. The Senate hearings on Miers' nomination are set to begin on November 7.

Still to come on DAYBREAK, millions of you have heard it. Thousands of you will pay for it. But you may get more than you bargained for with gastric bypass surgery. We'll explain.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:44 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.

Clearing out ahead of Hurricane Wilma. Tourists are being evacuated from the Florida Keys, and authorities say they may order mandatory evacuations for all residents in the area by noon today if the storm continues to head their way. In money news, a bidding war over Warren Buffett's authorized biography. Bantam Dell Publishing, a division of Random House, got the deal. And it is a reportedly big deal worth $7 million. The book is due out in 2008. The 75-year-old Buffett has an estimated wealth of $40 billion.

In culture, Pope Benedict XVI will attend a screening of the CBS miniseries about his predecessor, Pope John Paul II played by Oscar- winning John Voigt. The screening takes place at the Vatican next month. And then in December, it will come to your TV screen.

In sports, Michael Jordan says he has occasionally been stupid in his gambling, but that he never jeopardized his livelihood or his family. The former Chicago Bull made the statement in a CBS interview that airs Sunday on "60 Minutes."

To the forecast center and Jacqui Jeras.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: We've all heard about celebrities who do it, and plenty of regular people are getting it done, too. We're talking about bariatric surgery. You know, that extreme weight loss procedure. A new study predicts there will be about 130,000 bariatric surgeries this year, and as many as 218,000 five years from now.

Lisa Drayer is a contributor to "Women's Health" magazine. She joins us now with more.

So, this bariatric surgery, that's confusing me, or it did. So explain what that is.

LISA DRAYER, "WOMEN'S HEALTH" MAGAZINE: Basically it's weight loss surgery. And as you can see, a lot of people are getting this surgery, lots of numbers here.

But this surgery can come with risks. And this is according to two new studies that are out this week.

The first study looked at Medicare patients, and it found a substantially higher risk of death after the surgery than previously expected.

COSTELLO: And we're talking about gastric bypass surgery.

DRAYER: Exactly.

COSTELLO: So explain to us what that is so we're clear.

DRAYER: Sure. The gastric bypass surgery, this is where the majority of surgeries are, and it's been around since the 1960s. Basically, it restricts the stomach and also bypasses part of the intestine. So, you're taking in less food, but you're also not absorbing all of your calories.

So, the weight loss is pretty good here, but the risks are great as well. And this is what these two studies looked at.

Now, the first study we want to point out that it was the Medicare population. So generally, these people are sicker.

But the surgeon's experience counts. Those who had more experienced surgeons did better. And I'm told that more than 70 cases per year seem to be associated with the best outcomes. So it's something to consider here if you're thinking about this surgery.

Another study, Carol, found an increase in hospitalizations. Up to 40 percent of patients were readmitted three years after the surgery. That's compared to 20 percent three years before the surgery.

COSTELLO: Well, why? I mean, what's happening?

DRAYER: You know, a lot of these readmissions were due to complications relating to the surgery. But some were elective. Some were plastic surgery, you know, people wanted, you know, maybe...

COSTELLO: To cut the scars or get the loose skin cut away, those kinds of things.

DRAYER: Exactly. Exactly. But would you believe the cost, the way this pushes up the cost. If you're considering surgery, maybe $33,000 for the surgery itself, but three years later these people have costs of about $20,000 in excess.

COSTELLO: Wow!

DRAYER: Yes.

COSTELLO: And sometimes Medicare will pay for it if you're extremely obese, because it's a health risk.

DRAYER: Absolutely. In fact, that's one of the qualifying issues; that is, you have to be sick enough to have this surgery. And the majority of these individuals on Medicare, they were under 65, and the main reason they were having this is because of their illness.

But it really is interesting to see how those costs, you know, it's more than just the surgery itself, but the costs that are associated with it, although I am told it seems to level out at year four. So, the costs that you're not paying for being sick...

COSTELLO: Great. Yes.

DRAYER: ... you need to wait a few years.

COSTELLO: There's, I guess, a more gentle surgery that you can have, which is the gastric band surgery.

DRAYER: Yes. And, Carol, I wanted to talk about this, because the two studies really didn't focus on this. This lap band has only been around since 2001. And it's generally a safer surgery. However, it's also associated with less weight loss. So, about 30 to 40 percent of excess weight is lost after two years.

Basically, this is a band that wraps around the stomach, and it restricts the amount of food that one can take in. And it's reversible. You can take this out.

So, this is becoming more and more popular. I think we're going to see more people getting this lap band.

It also has some risks. It's very easy to cheat, because it's easy to stretch this band. So that's something to keep in mind.

You can really fill up on sugary beverages and sweets if you have this band. It certainly requires more dietary modification than the bypass, where no matter what you eat some of the calories will not be absorbed.

COSTELLO: But in light of this study that may be safer.

DRAYER: Exactly. It generally is associated with less risk. So, that's something to keep in mind. And I think we will see more of this band.

COSTELLO: You're probably right about that, although Congress has now passed the cheeseburger bill. So maybe we will see more of that, because you can't sue McDonald's anymore for eating too...

DRAYER: There you go, right.

COSTELLO: Thank you, Lisa.

DRAYER: Sure.

COSTELLO: Still to come on DAYBREAK, a chance to win a DAYBREAK mug.

But first, it's time to say happy birthday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: This man is going to get married this Saturday. What's the fiance's name? Come on. You can look towards the camera, you know. There he is. Congratulations, Doug, and to you too, Janet.

And welcome back to DAYBREAK. It's 6:53 Eastern. Here is what will be making news today.

Michael Ray Aquino is arraigned in Washington, a former to Filipino police official. Aquino is charged with spying and conspiracy to pass classified documents to Filipino officials.

It's the second White House visit for the new Palestinian president. President Bush welcomes Mahmoud Abbas this morning. Both leaders have vital agendas to talk over.

And imagine if you will that you threw a John Lennon song into an auction, and few people bid. Lennon's original lyrics for the Beatles' song, "I'm Only Sleeping," was expected to bring about $350,000 at auction, but it didn't fetch its reserve price. So that was a bust.

Now let's talk about something. Oh, you have that big hurricane picture behind you.

JERAS: I know. Doug's not getting married in Florida, is he? I should hope not, because actually one of our producers downstairs...

COSTELLO: You're not, right?

JERAS: ... is getting married in Florida this weekend.

COSTELLO: Oh, that's too bad.

JERAS: I know. Tallahassee. So she should be OK.

COSTELLO: Good.

JERAS: Hopefully.

COSTELLO: Good.

JERAS: Yes.

COSTELLO: OK. Well, let's give away a mug.

JERAS: OK, let's do that, shall we? I have one now, too, by the way. Did you see that in my hand?

COSTELLO: You're lucky.

JERAS: I know. I'm just going to show everyone I have a mug, and I'm very happy. And you can have one at home, too, if you e-mail us the right answers to these questions.

When will confirmation hearings begin for Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers? And according to a study in "JAMA," how many weight loss surgeries will likely be performed in the year 2010?

Give us your answers online. The address, CNN.com/daybreak. Find out tomorrow if you win. You can have this.

COSTELLO: It's a special gift, isn't it?

JERAS: It is. I feel so happy. It took me a long time to get this mug.

COSTELLO: Well, you know, you have...

JERAS: I have been waiting.

COSTELLO: Yes, I know. Thank you, Jacqui.

JERAS: OK.

COSTELLO: When we come back, more headlines and a look at your travel forecast.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: If you're traveling this morning, Jacqui has news.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: "Now in the News."

Preparing for Hurricane Wilma. Tourists are being evacuated from the Florida Keys, and authorities say they may order mandatory evacuations for all residents in that area by noon today if the storm continues to head their way.

A body believed to be that of a child was pulled from San Francisco Bay overnight. Authorities say there may be two more young children in the water. The children's mother is now in custody.

European health ministers are meeting them near London to discuss ways to stop the spread of bird flu. Emergency procedures to deal with a possible pandemic are also being outlined.

From the Time Warner Center in New York, I'm Carol Costello. "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.

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