Return to Transcripts main page

Laura Coates Live

Government Shutdown Begins After Federal Funding Expires; U.S. Government Shutdown Starts As Trump Threatens Mass Layoffs. Aired 12- 1a ET

Aired October 01, 2025 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[00:00:00]

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: -- is that slightly less than one out of every 50 Americans, their job is tied to the federal government. And we know that everybody in this country, whether they think they do or not, relies upon federal services. And they may not be there starting in just moments. Laura.

LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: 200,000 less employees. Tom Foreman, thank you.

FOREMAN: You're welcome.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

COATES: Our breaking news, a government shock shutdown taking effect as the clock strikes midnight here in Washington, DC. I'm Laura Coates along with Kaitlan Collins, who's at the Capitol. This is the first shutdown since 2019, back in President Trump's first term. It's coming amid a bitter deadlock between Republicans and Democrats over just how to fund the government. And believe me, the stakes are huge.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT AND ANCHOR: Yes, they certainly are, Laura, because many government services are now going to stop functioning. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers are now bracing for missed paychecks. And unlike in those past shutdowns that you mentioned there, including when Trump was in office, the president is now promising to go even further, saying that vast numbers of government employees could be laid off and that federal programs could be cut.

All of this is raising the prospect that this is a shutdown that could drag on longer and maybe hit harder than the ones that we have seen before.

Joining me now, as we are now at this deadline where funding has lapsed, Republican Congressman of New York, Mike Lawler is here. And Congressman, I think a big question that people have is how long this shutdown could last. What's your prediction?

REP. MIKE LAWLER (R-NY): Well, that's entirely dependent on Chuck Schumer. This is the Schumer shutdown. He has reversed his previous positions, as has Hakeem Jeffries, in which they always supported a clean CR, in which they always supported keeping the government open and funded.

And now they no longer do. I have been consistent in this. I voted while Joe Biden was president every time to keep the government open and funded despite objections from some of my Republican colleagues at the time because of the open borders under Joe Biden's administration and here now.

I think it is shameful. I think it is wrong, and I think it is destructive. It is going to hurt the American people. It is going to create chaos in our economy.

And ultimately, this is only happening because Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are upset that Donald Trump is president, and they're concerned about their left flank. They're concerned about the pressure that has mounted among AOC and the progressive left, and they are concerned about how that is going to result in primaries if they don't shut the government down. And so here we are with a government shutdown that was totally unnecessary and avoidable.

COLLINS: Given what you just said about the pain of a government shutdown, what do you think the president is talking about when he says there's good that can come out of a government shutdown?

LAWLER: Well, you have to ask the President. I look at this very simply. A shutdown creates unnecessary pain for the American people. It creates delay in services, which is entirely unnecessary. Republicans passed a clean CR through the House nearly two weeks ago. Every single Democrat except for one, Jared Goldin of Maine. Every single Democrat voted to shut the government down.

Tonight, the bill was put on the floor again for a vote in the Senate. Three Democrats voted to keep the government open. Every other Democrat voted to shut the government down. This is avoidable. And I know John Thune is going to bring the bill back up for a vote tomorrow. And I hope five more Democrats wake up and realize that this is unnecessary. There are a lot of challenges, a lot of differences of opinion on policy.

We can negotiate those while the government is open and funded and while we finish the appropriations work. The bottom line here, Kaitlan, this is entirely avoidable. We can pass a clean CR through the Senate tomorrow and reopen the government and avoid any pain or unnecessary chaos for the American people.

COLLINS: Do you think the president should cut government programs while there's a government shutdown, as he's threatening to do?

LAWLER: Well, this is the reality of a government shutdown. The executive has authority and has to manage the bureaucracy when the funding isn't there. And so what you end up with is an executive making decisions about what is essential, what is not, making determinations about programs.

If you don't have the spending and you don't have the authorization, how are you supposed to continue with certain programs?

[00:05:00]

That's why this whole thing is so stupid and why Democrats who previously are on record, from Chuck Schumer to Nancy Pelosi to Hakeem Jeffries, decrying government shutdowns are so hypocritical for doing what they're doing right now. And it's entirely driven by their leftist flank. It is absurd on its face.

COLLINS: But can you name any other president in modern history, Republican or Democrat, who cut programs while the government was shut down?

LAWLER: Look, Barack Obama, when there was a government shutdown, shut down numerous agencies and departments during that shutdown. The bottom line here is we have a government. We have a government. We have a government that needs to be funded. The job of Congress is to appropriate those funds to authorize different departments, agencies, programs.

If Congress is not going to do its job and the funds are not there and the appropriation and the approval of these programs are not there, then the executive is left with no choice but to make certain decisions. I don't want to see that happen. And there's a very simple way to avoid it, Kaitlan, pass the CR that is sitting in the United States Senate that will keep all of these programs funded and approved.

COLLINS: But the president is talking about cutting them permanently, Congressman.

LAWLER: Again, this is what happens when Congress doesn't act and doesn't pass appropriations.

COLLINS: But I have never -- I can't think of another president who's done that.

LAWLER: So it's very simple.

COLLINS: So actually, it's not the case of history where other presidents have dealt with shutdowns. Yes, I understand your points you're making, but I haven't seen another president permanently cut programs during a government shutdown before.

LAWLER: Well, then I guess Democrats should get back to work tomorrow and pass the clean CR and then we don't even have to have that discussion.

COLLINS: OK, but the point still stands. What about when it comes to federal employees? Because there have been questions about the missing paychecks. Obviously, they may get back pay once this is over, but the question is how long it could go on.

I've seen some of your colleagues say they'll go without their own paycheck while the shutdown is happening. And is that something that you're considering?

LAWLER: I already submitted a letter today foregoing pay during the shutdown. And obviously, look, I don't want to see anybody laid off. I don't want to see any of these departments or agencies shut down. And that was why I have always supported keeping the government open and funded. I've been consistent in this, regardless of who the president is.

Shutting down the government is one of the dumbest things that we can do. It does not save us any money. In fact, it costs us more money when you actually have to pay penalties on the back pay. So this is foolish by the Democrats. It is entirely avoidable. Tomorrow morning, they should be back at work in the United States Senate and pass the CR.

COLLINS: Congressman Mike Lawler, thank you for your time tonight.

LAWLER: Thanks, Kaitlan.

COLLINS: Also here, as we are now in the beginning of this government shutdown, the journalist Rachael Bade and CNN's chief national affairs correspondent, Jeff Zell, back with me. I mean, now we're in this moment that we haven't been in since 2019. It's kind of remarkable here in Washington that the last time this happened, President Trump was in office. Now that it's back.

You heard Congressman Lawler there making the point, saying that he has voted to keep it going in the past and is saying that this could turn on Democrats. I'm not sure Democrats see it like that yet.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Obviously they don't. I mean, Democrats believe that A, they have to fight. Their base is demanding a fight and they believe that they have something to fight for here. The question is for how long.

But one other thing that the congressman said, I've covered a lot of shutdowns up here. There have been 21 over the last five decades. We haven't covered all of those. We've covered some. There has never been a situation like this where the head of the OMB is literally planning to use this as an opportunity to continue to shrink the size of the federal government.

That is one of the things that has been different about this Trump administration. His officials are ready to govern and they have a plan to govern.

And Russell Vough, who's a name who's not familiar to most Americans, he certainly is here on Capitol Hill and at the White House. He is going to, beginning tomorrow, use this to shrink the size of government. So that is different from other shutdowns. They did not do it in the 35-day one in the Trump administration the last time and in the Obama administration in 2013, that was also not done.

So that is something that they believe is a pressure point for Democrats and it may be, but we will see if it works.

COLLINS: Yeah. Rachael, what are you watching for?

RACHAEL BADE, JOURNALIST: Yes, I mean, just to sort of piggyback on that and this question about how do Democrats see it? I mean, privately, some of them tell a different story. They know this is risky. Name one government shutdown where the party making the demand gets what they want. Or some of what they want and walks away victorious. It just doesn't happen.

[00:10:02]

I mean, even when you think about issues that politically are popular, I mean, if you go back to 2013 with Ted Cruz was like forcing this government shutdown. Obamacare was not popular. His demand was, let's defund it. And guess what? It was a disaster for Republicans. Same thing. There was a shutdown. And I think it was 2017, maybe early 2018, where Democrats were sort of drawing a line in the sand about protections for Dreamers.

OK, this is an 8020 issue. A lot of people don't think Dreamers should be deported. And that was sort of like a demand on President Trump at the time. And yet they ended up caving and folding on that because they just knew they couldn't get something from it.

So, I think this is really risky for Democrats. I think right now the narrative is on ACA and the tax credits right now or what happens with these health care credits. And obviously that is an issue that I think could be a vulnerability for Republicans.

But after midnight, now, that the narrative is going to shift and it's going to be about the emergency happening right now about troops not getting paid, trash piling up in national parks, people trying to get a hold of agencies and not being able to get help with services. And it's just going to really increase the pressure on Democrats. I mean, you already saw three of them vote against this today to keep the government open.

COLLINS: We had a couple Democrats on the show earlier, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren. And I asked them about if they were worried about giving the federal -- the executive branch more power with this shutdown, as Congressman Lawler was highlighting there.

They basically said no, because they've already been cutting federal programs. They've already been firing federal workers. But you know, what we've heard from the White House is they do have a plan here. To your point about being kind of unfamiliar with shutdowns last time, they certainly are.

ZELENY: Now they're not. Now they're very familiar with it. So, yes, Democrats are saying that, you know, the executive branch has basically been ignoring Congress to a degrees to which we have not seen, degrees to which that will be tested in the Supreme Court just across the way. There's no doubt about it, the power of the purse. But what is different about this shutdown, I believe, are the people who are surrounding the president.

So I do wonder, though, the president obviously operates on optics and things, so when he sees how things are happening in the country, is he going to budge at all? He may. We don't know the answer to that question, but after 35 days, I remember. And you remember how uncomfortable it sort of became as it went on --

COLLINS: Oh, yes.

ZELENY: -- that long. And right now, it's theoretical. The clock's after midnight. There's nothing happening here. But tomorrow people are going to start feeling it. So it's just really hard to predict how long this will go.

But what's hard to see is how they get out of it. Because to your point about Democrats, the Democrats just do not exist up here who would be willing to vote with Republicans because it's a smaller Democratic group and there aren't any Democrats from red states anymore.

COLLINS: We also have all new leadership except for Senator Schumer. I mean, John Thune, Hakeem Jeffries and Mike Johnson. This is the first time they've been in leadership positions with the government and shutdown underway.

BADE: Yes, absolutely. It's a big test, I think, especially for GOP leaders. And you mentioned President Trump and how unpredictable he is. I mean, one of the big things I'm watching is can Republicans keep this no negotiation stance they have right now? They're out there saying, look, we can talk about the ACA health credits, right? We can talk and negotiate about this, but not as part of this shutdown. You reopen the government --

COLLINS: Which was the Obama position.

BADE: And, you know, if you go back a few years ago, when President Trump shut down the government to try to fund his border wall, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were rewarded for saying, we are not going to give an inch on that. You will get not a penny.

And ultimately, 35 days later, he didn't get a penny and he caved and he took a huge hit in the polls from it. So, look, Republican leaders want the president to keep that stance. They don't want him to negotiate with Democrats on this issue right now.

But I had some reporting this morning that at the White House meeting yesterday, the president actually indicated he's interested in potentially making a deal. He suggested to Democrats, what if we just write a new health care bill? I mean, that's not going to happen.

But he is a guy who likes to be seen or believes he's sort of this, you know, negotiator in chief, and he could be drawn to sort of make some sort of deal against what Republican leaders want him to do on Capitol Hill. So I -- I'm really curious what the president actually does on this in the next couple of days.

COLLINS: Yes, I mean, it's a good question in terms of we don't actually, I mean, the Trump of it all is kind of, you know, usually the part that maybe could change potentially or maybe he stays dug in and they try to do the reverse, as Senator Lindsey Graham was suggesting earlier. This could be the reverse of the border wall. Then the Democrats are making these demands and they're just not going to get them.

ZELENY: It certainly seems like that. And this is also going to have other political reaching effects as well that are unknown. There are a couple of big governors' races, Virginia and New Jersey. We're just a month away from that. In Virginia, if there's a government shutdown going into a governor's race, that certainly does not help Republicans.

So one senior Republican I was talking today said that could be an impetus to sort of not have a long drawn out shutdown. We just do not know. When the sun rises tomorrow, we know the Senate is going to try and vote again.

[00:15:02]

We'll see if there is one more Democrat who votes yes. My guess is there won't be. I think they're kind of to their limit, but this will have to settle in and by next week when the House comes back, that's when I think the real negotiations, if they're going to be, will start.

COLLINS: Yes. Jeff Zeleny, Rachael Bade, great to have you both here this late hour as we are now almost 15 minutes into the shutdown. Laura.

COATES: it is here. We knew it was coming and here it is. And we have so much more ahead, including Kaitlan, the real life consequences for everyday people of this shutdown. I'll speak to federal workers who will be now losing their paychecks. They might get paid at the end, true, but they're losing this.

Plus, Democratic voters urging their party's leaders to show some fight. But is they shut down the fight they wanted? My all-star political panel is with me on that and more, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:20:15]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIMMY KIMMEL, HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE": Democrats want Republicans to agree to continue funding the Affordable Care Act, whereas Republicans want to use that money to add crab legs to the omelet station at Mar- a- Lago. Trump is threatening to make irreversible cuts if there is a shutdown, which you know what? I was recently the victim of a government shutdown. They are reversible, I will tell you that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: Jimmy Kimmel there, of course, with a shutdown joke, as we are now 20 minutes in and counting. Joining me now, former Democratic congressman Joe Crowley, former senior communications aide Senator Lindsey Graham, T.W. Arrighi, CNN political commentator, Xochitl Hinojosa, and Republican strategist, Doug Heye. Glad to have all of you here. All right, jokes aside for a moment because this is now real. We're 20

minutes in. T.W., is there some way to get out of this? Now, I know it's only 20 minutes in, but 20 minutes too long if you're a federal employee wanting your paycheck, needing your -- all of us needing their services. How do you negotiate an end if the government's closed?

T.W. ARRIGHI, FORMER SENIOR COMMUNICATIONS AIDE SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM: First, you need a plan. I think one of the things that made Mitch McConnell such a great majority leader was he didn't enter a battle unless he knew how it was going to end and knew the steps it was going to take to get to that goal.

This felt like a hapless political strategy by the Democrats from the start. There was a New York Times-Siena poll today that underscored the fact that the base is motivating this decision to shut the government down. They're talking about health care tax credits that don't expire until the end of December. And they're now going to keep the government closed for who knows how long until they get their way and relitigate provisions in the big beautiful bill.

I think it's irresponsible. Look, we just missed disaster in South Carolina with two hurricanes tracking that way. Thank God they turned toward the ocean. Could you imagine if those struck the coast of South Carolina and the Democrats shut down the government and FEMA wasn't able to be there quick enough? I think it was a hapless political strategy that will backfire.

COATES: Crowley, what do you think? Because, of course, the idea this is just political bantering. I mean, Democrats are saying if you can negotiate something like the Affordable Care Act and beyond at the end of the year. Why don't you do it now? What's the issue here?

JOE CROWLEY (D) FORMER U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FOR NEW YORK: Let me clarify. FEMA would be able to respond to a natural disaster if that did happen. They're not. They're essential. I do think that what you have here going on right now is unfortunate because real people's lives are going to be affected by this.

I, you know, as a former member of Congress, I lived through several of these shutdowns. And, you know, I think some of the optics that I think really hurt Republicans right now is that the House Republican Conference is not here in town today, regardless as to whether or not they passed the bill and they kind of dropped the mic and walked out.

You know, what if the Senate actually had a compromise and they passed the bill and the House wouldn't have been here? They may have done it by consent, but they're not even physically here.

COATES: Which suggests to you that they're not serious or that there was no plan to negotiate.

CROWLEY: There was no plan to negotiate. I think that was also representative last week when the president had a meeting on Thursday, then canceled it, calls a meeting for Monday. Clearly it was a joke. Throwing out MAGA hats on the desk and having these tropes, at worst, at best, it's juvenile not seriously taking these negotiations.

Look, the big difference here, and I'll move on, the big difference here is that the big unpopular bill made massive changes. You had DOGE massive changes, no Democratic input whatsoever, just ramroding this all through. And all of a sudden you need Democrats and they should just lie down and not try to restore the cuts that were made to a very important program, the Affordable Care Act. The cuts were made to Medicare. That's just ridiculous.

COATES: You know, there's two issues as well that we keep hearing about. One is the absence of trust. You know, there seems to be a total absence of it, that why do I not trust you to come back after I do a CR? Because I don't trust you to come back after doing a CR.

And the other aspect of it is your point about these AI-generated images. I mean, it seems as though President Trump believes that the shutdown, at least for some period, is politically advantageous. That combination suggests what to you it.

DOUG HEYE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Suggests we're going to be here for a long time. And look, we often hear that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Here's the rhyme. 12 years ago, at this moment, I was sitting at my desk in the House Majority Leader's office.

[00:25:00]

Congressman Crowley was probably on the other side of the chamber. And what we had was a government shutdown that was caused why by Republicans. I worked in Republican leadership who were beholden to a certain part of their party who said we have to fight. We have to fight. OK, well what is our fight? What strategy do we have? Are we going to land a punch? Are we going to knock our opponent down? How are we going to win a round? We didn't know any of that. We just had to fight.

What is the language today? Democrats. We got to fight. We got to fight Donald Trump. OK, how are you going to punch Donald Trump? How are you going to knock him down? They have no idea. This is how history is rhyming right now. And if I'm a Democrat, I'd be really nervous about this because, one, Donald Trump is going to have more powers to do what he wants to do and we know he's not going to be willy-nilly about it. And I don't know, close down the World War II memorial like Obama did unnecessarily.

By the way, he's going to use every lever as he that he can. And so I think Democrats here have sort of Jedi mind tricked themselves into thinking that somehow this time it's going to be different. And the reality is if Donald Trump uses every lever that he can, he's going to take Democrats fists and say stop hitting yourself., stop hitting yourself. And again, what is your plan to win?

COATES: Is this the fight Democrats should have, want to have and will continue to have?

XOCHITL HINOJOSA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think Democrats are fighting to ensure that health care costs are down. And I think that is an important fight. And Donald Trump sees the polling on this. People do not want their health care to go up.

And so I've talked to some Republican operatives that thought maybe with Democrats going in the meeting yesterday that he could potentially find some sort of common ground with Democrats because he understands how much the ACA is, you know, just the polling around it.

But what I'll say about this is that Donald Trump needs to start taking responsibility for something. He is the President of the United States. He has the House, he has the Senate. He has everything right now. And like at every turn he said that he would lower costs. He ends up going with tariffs. It's increasing costs.

The economy is not getting better. Now you have a shutdown where we don't know where -- there is no end in sight because he is acting like a child and throwing a fit over social media instead of actually negotiating with Democrats. Every time there's a Democratic president, they try to negotiate with Republicans. I don't understand why Republicans and Donald Trump can't the last shutdown, as was said earlier, was in 2019 under his watch.

But Donald Trump has to be very careful. I can guarantee you my hometown of Brownsville, Texas, if you ask them who Hakeem Jeffries is or Chuck Schumer, no one will know who it is. But when you ask them who Donald Trump is, they will say, yes, he runs the federal government.

And so at the end of the day, the buck stops with Donald Trump, whether it's the economy, whether it is the shutdown or whatever that is. And if the Republicans don't get this country back on track the way that they promised to, they're going to have a bloodbath next November.

COATES: You know, one second when you said that, though, a part of me thought, well, it's a problem for Democrats in messaging if they don't know who Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries is as well. But I want to play for a second and I don't want you to respond as well because as you know, Senator Chuck Schumer was criticized heavily for signing on to the CR last time around. He has had a change of heart. Obviously, we're 27 minutes into it. Some people speculated that Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might behind this newfound strategy. Listen to her response.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Are you planning to primary challenge him? Do you think that's why he's doing this?

REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-NY): This is so not about me in this moment. This is about people being able to ensure their children.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: Talk to me about the pressure that Schumer is under. I want to hear your response as well. CROWLEY: I don't think there's no pressure. There certainly is from

the base. I'm not saying from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. I think the base itself wants a fight, that's clear. I also know Chuck --

COATES: From this fight?

CROWLEY: Well, that's a question. And I think that there is some discussion of how long this shutdown will be. I could see this being very short and then passing a seven-week extender and then living to fight another day, so to speak, and hopefully negotiate. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think they're going to restore any of these cuts.

What I think you're going to see if there is a long term shutdown is DOGE 2.0. It won't be Musk, but it will be the Office of the Budget, OMB, who will be calling those shots. Void will be calling those shots. And it will be tough.

You already have almost 200 federal employees who are taking the buyout. There are 200,000 less employees in the federal government right now. And they start firing more of these people. It's going to have a real impact on the lives of America. And I think that's where the president and Republicans are vulnerable.

COATES: We come back. Don't worry, everyone. I want to hear both of you. Thank you so much. Stand by. There's plenty to discuss. We are 29 minutes in. And up next, lessons from past shutdowns and who voters might actually blame this time around. Harry Enten is digging into it for us, and he'll join Kaitlan, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:34:40]

COLLINS: The federal government is now shut down for the first time in six years. The last time it was shut down, President Trump was in office. And if you want to have an idea of how the Trump administration this time around is going to message this, take a look at whitehouse.gov. This is the federal government's website here. And clearly already the administration is messaging this as the Democrats shutdown.

[00:35:03]

It even has a clock of how long the shutdown has been going. We're now at 34 minutes as we just get past the hour here. And of course, when it comes to shutdowns, there are questions still about who gets the blame, what it means, if it'll have any effect on the midterms. CNN's Harry Enten has been running the numbers on all of this. Harry.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hey there. Well, it's upon us. Yet another government shutdown. It feels like we've had a bunch of these in recent years, and indeed we have. But that gives us a historical standpoint on which we can look back upon to get an understanding of how this shutdown may unfold.

Well, first off, let's take a look at some of those past shutdowns. We're talking about '95, '96, 2013 and 2018 slash 2019. Who got the public blame? Who got the blame from the public during those shutdowns? Well, in all three cases, it was Republicans in '95 slash '96, Republicans in 2013, and then Republicans again during the first Trump administration in 2018 slash 2019.

But I want you to take a look at this 2013 data point, because of course, there was a midterm election that occurred in 2014. Just like there'll be a midterm election, they'll occur a little bit more than a year from now. Now, what happened in that 2014 midterm election despite Republicans getting the blame in 2013?

Did Republicans miss out on seat gains in 2014? No, not really. After the Republicans got the blame in 2013, look at what happened in the 2014 election in terms of seats. Republicans gained 13 seats in the House. They gained nine seats in the Senate and were able to take control of that body.

So despite what happened in a shutdown of 2013, it didn't impact what actually happened in the 2014 midterms. What does that mean for this time around? Let's say the Democrats end up getting the blame. That doesn't mean they won't be able to take back the House or the Senate in 2026.

In the reverse, even if Republicans get the blame, that doesn't mean they won't be able to hold on to the House and Senate come 2026. What happens in a shutdown tends to stay in a shutdown. Of course, there is one big difference in terms of this shutdown, or at least the political environment going into this shutdown and past shutdowns, or at least past potential shutdowns.

What are we talking about here? Well, it's just that the Democratic Party is in a different place. What do Democrats want pre-potential shutdown from their Democratic leaders in Washington? Well, take a look here. Back in 2023 when there was a potential shutdown that didn't happen, only 21 percent of Democrats said they wanted their party to stand on principle even if it meant to shut down, compared to 76 percent of Democrats who said they wanted compromise, no shutdown.

Look at where we are now in 2025. The stand on principal percentage through the roof. We're talking about 47 percent of Democrats, nearly half who say stand on principle. They want their leaders in Washington to stand on principle even if it means a potential shutdown compared to just 40, 52 percent who say they want their Democratic representatives to compromise no shutdown, significantly less than the percentage we saw even just a few years ago.

So this is a Democratic Party that wants their leadership to fight and not compromise, which is very different from what we saw in past shutdowns and even just a few years ago when there were potential shutdowns. How that impacts the potential playing field going on and on during the shutdown, well, we'll just have to wait and see.

But it means that we're dealing with a Democratic Party that it wants its leaders to have its feet firmly in the ground. And of course that Republican Party usually wants that as well. So we'll see how they ultimately butt heads. Back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COLLINS: Indeed we will, Harry Enten, thank you for that. Laura, some very interesting numbers there.

COATES: There are. I'm curious to see how the voters will see it five days from now, 10 days from now, five hours from now. We've got much more ahead, Kaitlan, and we're going to take a look at who was going to feel the pain from this shutdown.

A federal worker who is about to be furloughed. Excuse me. And the wife of an active duty military service member will join me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:43:25]

COATES: You know, through all this talk of budget negotiations and stopgap measures and partisan gridlock, it can be easy to forget that there's a human toll of a government shutdown because it doesn't just stall Washington, D.C., it disrupts paychecks and services and the daily lives of hundreds of thousands of real people and families.

Joining me now is Maria Donnelly. She's a current army spouse and co- founder of the Military Family Foundation. Also here, Mark Cochran, a National Park Services employee and the president of a Pennsylvania chapter of the American Federation of government Employ 3145. Good to have both of you here.

Unfortunately, here we are nearly an hour into another government shutdown, the first in six years. Mark, as a federal employee, tell us how this shutdown is going to impact you personally.

MARK COCHRAN, NATIONAL PARK SERVICE WORKER WHO EXPECTS TO BE FURLOUGHED: Well, it's just another kick in the teeth of a long year that we had so far. You know, the attack started in January when our seasonal employees were told to stay at home. Then they fired all our probationary employees. And now, you know, coming near the end, at the end of the year, we're faced with not, you know, getting a paycheck until who knows when, until they decide they can, you know, work together and, you know, move ahead with doing, you know, what they do for, you know, what they do for a living.

COATES: The uncertainty just in so many ways intolerable, Maria.

[00:45:00]

And thinking about how this impacts so many families. I mean, you're an army spouse. You lead an organization that advocates for military families. And during a shutdown, active duty personnel are required to carry out their duties without pay until the shutdown ends.

So what are you hearing from military families that you serve about how this is affecting all of you?

MARIA DONNELLY, CO-FOUNDER, MILITARY FAMILY FOUNDATION: So this is really concerning all military families, particularly junior enlisted families. I think a lot of people aren't aware of how much this could really affect their lives because we really haven't seen a show shutdown affect the Department of Defense in a really long time.

In the last shutdown, DoD actually had that. There's a partial shutdown. And so we actually had appropriations for the Department of Defense. And so military service members' paychecks were not affected. And the shutdown before that, again, military service members' paychecks were not affected. And while there is a measure before Congress in the Pay Our Troops Act of 2026, it hasn't passed. It hasn't advanced out of committee.

And so we really are likely to see this gap. And so for a lot of military family members, a lot of military families are single income. A lot of the ones that are dual income are a military spouse could be a federal employee. So they're facing both paychecks kind of being suspended.

So there's just a lot of concern, particularly we have a lot of concern for the junior enlisted community, particularly in high cost of living areas. It's just impossible to make ends meet for a lot of American families. You know, they couldn't miss a paycheck. But particularly for military families, just who don't get to choose where they live and have no idea what's coming.

COATES: And look what we ask of them to do on behalf of our nation. It's unbelievable. I mean, Mark, shutdowns, they can be long. The last one in 2018 and in 2019, I think was 35 days. 35 days. You lead the local chapter of your union. What do you and your members plan to do to try to stay afloat?

COCHRAN: Well, that's the hard part is because we don't know how long it's going to be. So, I mean, thankfully, you know, we work together as a team at our national park. Everybody gets along really well. We support each other.

And so I have, you know, I have a list of food banks if people need it, like my wife and I, we have a dairy farm where we make cheese. So the last couple shutdowns that were longer, I put cheese boxes together for people, especially those, you know, colleagues who had young children and, you know, they didn't know how they could get food for their kids to eat. So I put together food boxes for them and, you know, delivered it to them. So it's, you know, I don't know.

You know, then that's really the hard part is the not knowing is, you know, here we are, just like military families. We've dedicated our lives to preserving and protecting our nation's cultural and historical landmarks for the next generation. And, you know, we're still expected to come in. Like, if a tree comes down to the park and causes a hazard, we still have to go in and take care of it, but hopefully we'll get paid, but you just don't know anymore.

COATES: My heart sank and was uplifted when you talk about the service you perform even for your community in these uncertain times. But, Maria, neither group should have to do what is being asked. We're only 48 minutes in, but I can imagine people restless tonight trying to figure out what their next day or week will look like.

What is your message tonight to members of Congress as they are beginning negotiations to reopen the government?

DONNELLY: I think my biggest message is that while it's incredibly important to restart paychecks for military families, a partial fix is only, that is only a partial fix. Military families rely on government services throughout the federal government. 10 percent of active duty military children are on Medicaid. About 25 percent of military families are eligible for WIC.

And so even if there is contingency funding for some of these things, military families rely on all of these elements. So, while we do need paychecks, while federally employed spouses, federal employees in general, and military service members need and deserve paychecks for the work that they are doing and will continue to perform, it is also only a partial fix if we only fund our troops. So we have to -- we need a solution to this. Our military families need a solution to this.

COATES: Maria Donnelly, Mark Cochran, thank you both so much.

COCHRAN: Thank you.

COATES: I want to bring back our panel. I mean, Congressman, I remember for a shutdown, being a federal employee, being pregnant, having a one year old almost at home, it's scary to think about, you got to go to work. You don't know your paycheck's coming in, the criminal enterprises don't stop, and you have to still serve.

[00:50:08]

It's scary for people to figure out what they do next.

CROWLEY: It certainly is. And as Maria actually indicated, it goes beyond the actual paycheck. It's about the fact that many of our military men and women personnel are reliant on Medicaid, are reliant on WIC and food stamps. So this really does speak to the big unpopular bill that cuts programs for those items.

And so it's not she's not saying I want a shutdown, but she's saying that this is a bigger issue than just simply a paycheck, and it really is. What you have happen here is an extortion. Either you vote for this shutdown, vote to keep coming open, or I will fire people. I won't furlough them. I will fire them.

And that's putting -- I'm not going to I don't like euphemism, but it's really putting enormous pressure on Democrats to vote for something they don't believe in at this point, if they can't restore the cuts that were made under the big unpopular bill.

COATES: Doug. HEYE: Well, I think Maria brought up something else as well that really demonstrates just how broken Washington is. No appropriations bill has been passed, and the appropriations process isn't really one of the sexy things, but it's always been traditionally a bipartisan process. We haven't passed a single one of those. That's a problem for Republicans and a problem for Democrats.

And the reality is the political incentive system that we have right now rewards you if you become a fighter, Republican or Democrat, on, say, government reform and oversight. So, appropriations, meaning keeping the government open, is actually less of a political priority for individual members than it used to be.

ARRIGHI: That's a problem. One sign of encouragement on that front. 12 appropriations bills are passed out of committee, both in the House and the Senate. Three of them have passed through the full Senate and the full House. Mike Johnson is actually setting up a committee now to rectify those two. That's going to be the first time an appropriations bill has gone in front of a joint committee since 2018. That can't happen.

And it's not just because we want to support federal workers and our military, but it's also for long term projections and missions that we have that last longer, like rebuilding our military. Ask anyone at the Pentagon if governing by CR is a good thing. You're never going to get a yes.

COATES: But Trump talking about layoffs --

ARRIGHI: Yes.

COATES: -- and the potential of not even replacing that, combine that with DOGE. It seems as though you're speaking out of two sides of one mouth. If you believe in wanting to have people. I'm talking about the proverbial you.

ARRIGHI: Yes. Yes.

COATES: If you believe in that, then why make that threat that makes people say, well hold on, it's not just shutting down the government. You're going to lay off people who might not ever be replaced. Do you care?

ARRIGHI: Well, first of all, I don't want to jump to conclusions about exactly what he's going to cut. Second of all, this is why you do not govern by CR and you go through the appropriations process and you give the long term funding and the appropriate outlook for these agencies and government services.

But look, make no mistake, Donald Trump wants to cut down the federal government and he is going to look at which agencies he thinks can be done away with to shrink the size of government. And if Congress is upset about it, they need to do the right thing and pass bills through the process.

HINOJOSA: Well, can I just say I don't think that Trump actually cares what Congress does and he operates on his own and does not believe that he actually needs Congress in most instances. I just want to go back to the federal worker and what we just talked about.

I am not sure that Trump cares about the federal worker. We have seen a full out assault on the federal workforce since the start of this administration more than any other president. And it started with DOGE. We had the fork in the road where a lot of people took those cuts. So the people that we are left with now are those that are standing strong in their jobs and hoping that they are not getting laid off.

But to think, to live by that think if you're a federal worker right now, not only have it does Donald Trump talk about you and say that you are not doing anything, that you are lazy and has this perceived notion of federal workers.

But every month there is a scare that you could be laid off because you're not loyal to him, because your boss may think that, you know, you're not doing good at whatever that is. Being a federal worker and working in the federal government has always been a privilege, an honor, something that is job security. And these people go every day, they don't make a lot of money and yet they do the important work of the American people.

COATES: His words were another kick in the face or teeth.

HINOJOSA: Yes. And so I -- it -- to me I will just say we're not even one year in and it is whoever the next president is going to be will need to build back the federal government in a way that it works for the American people, because the amount of cuts and the potential threats of cuts, we are going to see this for decades.

CROWLEY: I agree with that. But I also just want to back with Doug had mentioned earlier, too, in terms of what we call regular order going back and actually in the House and the Senate work their will.

[00:55:05]

And I don't disagree with you, Xochitl. I don't think this president really cares about regular order. But what's interesting about that, there was really, you know, we had regular order during the passage of the tax bill, the big, as I call unpopular bill. And it really was just a ramroding through. There was no give and take. There was no bipartisanship. And not to expect that in its appropriations bills. You know, it's a bit of a stretch.

COATES: One hour in almost a government shutdown, the first in six years yet again under the Trump administration. What will happen next? Want to thank everyone for joining and thank you all, of course, for watching. Paula Newton picks up our live coverage right after a short break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:00:00]