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Laura Coates Live
Texas Primary Drama: A Night of Political Uncertainty. Aired 11p-12a ET
Aired March 03, 2026 - 23:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[23:00:00]
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR AND SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: But they could have the raw materials for it this cycle.
ISAIAH MARTIN, FORMER U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE IN TEXAS: Absolutely. I mean, because, like I said, people are really frustrated with the economy. Everybody is mad about the direction that the country is going. They're upset about this situation in Iran.
And this election is an opportunity for them to respond because as a voter in this country, going to the ballot box is your way to be able to tell the president of the United States whether or not you are OK with what he's doing. And I just happen to believe that, going around Texas and talking to as many people as I have, this is going to be the year that Democrats are going to make a big push at the ballot box.
PHILLIP: All right, everybody, our special coverage is going to continue with "Laura Coates Live" that starts right now.
LAURA COATES, CNN HOST AND SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good evening. I'm Laura Coates on this busy election night where there is some major drama in the Democratic Senate primary in Texas. Right now, Texas State Rep James Talarico is leading Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the race to be the Democratic nominee for Senate. Both are trying to do what no Democrat has done in a generation, win a statewide race in Texas, which has not happened since 1994.
But this primary just got more complicated because the Texas Supreme Court has blocked an earlier ruling that allowed extended voting hours in Dallas County. The court said any votes that came in after the original closing time should not be counted tonight while the case is litigated, it should be separated.
Moments ago, Crockett spoke, saying she thinks it's unlikely that a winner will even be known tonight.
On the Republican side, incumbent Senator John Cornyn will be headed to a bruising runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate cleared 50 percent plus one of the vote.
Our reporters and analysts are here to cover it all tonight. I want to start with CNN's John King, who was at the magic wall. John, tell me, how important is the vote count out of Dallas County for that Talarico-Crockett race? JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, obviously, it is her home base and every vote counts. And on this first primary night of 2026, we certainly want to start by making sure every vote is counted. So -- but let's look at it. The question is, though, Laura -- we'll see what happens in the courts and we'll see which ballots they count. Hopefully, they count them all if people in line thought they could vote.
The question is, is it enough? Is it enough? Because you look right now at the race, the state representative, as you mentioned, James Talarico leading there, 52 to 47. So, he's got a five-point lead or 70 -- just shy of 75,000 votes at the moment with about 63 percent of the vote counted.
Now, how much is out in Dallas County? It's a good question. If they're going to have to have litigation now about, you know, all ballots counted or some ballots because state Supreme Court ruling -- ruled out of bounds or after time, at the moment, she's winning big there, 61 to 38. Again, this is her home base, Dallas County. And next door, in Tarrant County, Fort Worth, Dallas, Fort Worth where her district stretches, she's winning big there with about 65 percent in.
But if you look at the rest of the map, Talarico is running up an impressive coalition. If you look in the other major areas, Travis County where Austin is, that's the home base of the legislature where he works, it's a big government town, fifth largest of the 255 counties -- 254 counties, excuse me, he's getting 76 percent. We move down to Bexar County, that's San Antonio. He's getting 57 percent of the vote there.
Also, impressive, Laura, we've talked about the Latino vote. Did Texas Republicans make a bad bet? Did they think all those Latinos who drifted toward Trump would stay with Republicans? We won't know the answer until November, how that actually plays out in this race and every other race in Texas.
But if you look along the Rio Grande Valley, that's mostly Talarico blue you're seeing there. And if you go into some of these counties, it's by pretty big numbers. That has been part of his sales pitch, that he's a candidate who can win some white moderate voters, also win Latino voters. The question is, if he defeats Crockett, and that's an if at this moment, can he also bring in the African-American base of the party? That will be a question going forward and a conversation for your panel.
But the Democrats are trying to pick a candidate. And as you noted, this is every two years or four years, we say, is Texas about to go blue? Is there a chance? They think, because of Trump's approval rating and the climate, the broader national midterm climate, that they have a chance. The question now is, who will that Democrat be running against? When incumbents are forced into runoffs, they usually lose.
John Cornyn with 43 percent, he's the senator -- he's the incumbent senator. Ken Paxton, the attorney general at 41. Congressman Wesley Hunt at 13. You look at the map, it's Cornyn and Paxton essentially trading counties as you go through.
What's going to happen right now, Laura, this has already been -- I just want to show you this. It will make everybody at home sick to their stomach because this has already been the most expensive Senate race in history, $71 million just for pro-court enforcers. We see how this other money spent. The question is -- you have a Republican runoff that goes into May, in a midterm election year where Republicans have to defend a lot of ground nationally, a lot of expensive places outside of Texas they need to defend.
[23:04:56]
And so, now, you're going to have both Cornyn and Paxton going to one Donald J. Trump and say, Mr. President, put your thumb on the scale because, otherwise, you're going to have more bloodshed, more spending, more Republican fighting in a place -- listen, if we're talking about this on election night in November, then that means the Democrats are in a very favorable climate.
So, we still don't know who the Democratic candidate is going to be, but we do know the Republican race goes on for a couple more months. And it has been ugly so far. I can only imagine what it gets like going forward.
COATES: So, let's talk about going forward, that runoff between Cornyn and Paxton given, of course, we don't know who they will ultimately -- either of them will face in the general. But can you project out a little bit based on what you're seeing right now?
KING: Again, history tells you that incumbents were forced into that one-on-one race. If they had an early one and they pushed to runoff, very hard, right? You're an incumbent. Why didn't you win the first time? Right? The forces of change are out there coming at you.
However, as Cornyn has said repeatedly -- and he has run some pretty crazy eye-opening ads. I'm not going to repeat the language in them, but you can find them on YouTube, folks at home, if you want to see them. This has been nasty. I mean, we know about nasty races. This might give new meanings to nasties as you go through. Paxton has had a number of character challenges, a number of ethical challenges, and Cornyn has tried to take advantage of them. But despite all that money he spent, I just showed it to you, they're running almost even in that race.
So, the question is, what happens? You say -- so, you look at the map like this and you say, can you find a strength or a weakness when it's a one-on-one? It's pretty hard, actually.
I just want to show you. You know, if -- this is overgeneralizing. But this is Bush versus Trump. Cornyn goes back to the George W. Bush days, the Karl Rove days in Texas. Even though he has tried to drift with -- draft with Trump, excuse me, in Washington like a lot of Republicans do, he's not performative like Trump. Paxton is a mega Republican. He sues to help Trump. He says elections were stolen and things like that. So, you look at -- for Cornyn to win, he needs the traditional, college-educated, suburban, affluent Republicans. In Dallas County, he did pretty well there, 53 percent to 31.
What struck me, as you come down here to Houston and Harris County, the fastest growing part of the state, they ran even down here. So, more traditional Republicans in that part of the state did not go Cornyn's way there.
You come over again, you know, to the big government town here. This is where Cornyn did have a bigger margin. Your establishment Republicans are around the government town. This is the lobbyists and the fundraisers and things like that. And so, you can look at it and see some of the establishment, anti-establishment.
Up here in these rural counties where Trump usually runs it up, Cornyn is actually doing pretty well. These are places, not by huge margins, but these are places Trump has won. So, I can actually make the -- I can go one place and make the Cornyn argument. I can go somewhere else and make the Paxton argument. I would just tell you, in 40 years of doing this, if you're the incumbent and you get forced to a runoff, that's a problem.
But, again, given all the Republican dynamics nationally and where they're going to need money and need resources and they would like to focus their attention, the next question in this race will not be the voters in May, it will be Donald Trump, like tomorrow.
COATES: I'm curious also who gets Wesley Hunt's votes going forward as well. John King, stay with us. We'll come back to you in just a moment. A lot to get to tonight.
Jasmine Crockett says that she thinks we won't even know the winner of the Democratic Party tonight because Texas Supreme Court blocked the decision from a judge who ruled that Dallas polling places had to be kept open for two hours later than usual. Here is what she said just a few moments ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. JASMINE CROCKETT (D-TX): But I can tell you now that people have been disenfranchised. The polls were supposed to stay open until 9, according to a court order. The Supreme Court, just a few minutes ago, just said, shut it down. The Supreme Court also said that they are to separate any votes out that came in after 7 p.m. What this means is that we will not know what votes are to be tallied from Election Day out of Dallas County. For sure, we won't know that tonight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: She is referencing, of course, the Texas Supreme Court. I want to bring in CNN's Jeff Zeleny. He's at James Talarico's headquarters in Austin. Jeff, we know Jasmine Crockett will not be appearing again tonight, she said as much, because of this legal fight over the voting extension in Dallas County. What is the Talarico camp saying, Jeff? JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Laura, perhaps you can see behind me here, there are a few hundred supporters of James Talarico who have been waiting for what they had hoped would be a victory speech or perhaps some word for the campaign, but it effectively has been just a wait and see with no official announcement from the Talarico campaign at all here. So, it is unclear what is coming next.
One thing that is clear, the Talarico campaign is confident of their showing across the state of Texas. They believe that they have done very well with Hispanic voters. They believe that they have done very well building a coalition.
But one piece of that coalition that, of course, is important to any Democratic candidate is African American voters, and they largely supported Jasmine Crockett. So, that is one of the reasons that I am told that the Talarico campaign is treading carefully here.
[23:09:57]
They are obviously not wanting to disenfranchise any voters and obviously wanting to await and see for a bit. But the question is, how long does that go? Of course, we are just about, you know, a little over an hour after the polls closed here, so not all that much time has passed, but certainly significant here. But we've not seen James Talarico.
But Laura, just taking kind of a bigger picture here from this confusing point at the end, this has been an extraordinary campaign that Texas has seen, Jasmine Crockett, of course, a rising star of the Democratic Party, and James Talarico. They were effectively aligned on policy issues, but in a very different stylistic approach about what type of fighter to be. Jasmine Crockett, of course, wanted to be a louder fighter against President Trump and Republicans. James Talarico often talked about bridging some of those divides, but did push very hard on immigration.
So, Texas voters had a choice, and we see what the vote has come in so far. But it is not enough. We are waiting for the vote in Dallas County. So, certainly, an interesting race as Texas Democrats hope that all sides can come together regardless of the outcome and do something that they have not done since 1988 and elect a U.S. senator as a Democrat from here in Texas.
COATES: Jeff Zeleny, a long night ahead, thank you so much. I want to bring in my panel who will join me for the next hour. Dan Koh, former special assistant to President Biden and also congressional candidate in Massachusetts, T.W. Arrighi, former senior communications aide to Senator Lindsey Graham, Lulu Garcia-Navarro, CNN contributor and New York Times journalist and podcast host, and Brad Todd, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist.
I'm glad to have all of you, guys, here because this is pretty significant, what's happening in Texas right now. I mean, the results may not be expected, according to Crockett, this evening. We will see, of course, the difference between what is outstanding versus what the lead will be very telling. What do these results tell you so far, Lulu? Talarico is in the lead as of now.
LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR, JOURNALIST FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES, PODCAST HOST: Yes. I've just been looking at some of the numbers that have come in and what it says to me because I've been looking very closely at the Hispanic vote because Latinos are in play in this election. You're going to see it in the midterms. They swung obviously towards Trump pretty hard, even in Texas.
And what we're seeing now is that Talarico has done really, really well. Travis County, up 53 points. Harris County, Crockett is only up by eight. You know, we've just seen El Paso as well, Talarico up by 26.
So, you know, what this says to me is that he has really been able to make a pitch to the constituency of Latinos, and I think that gives the wind at his back. I spoke to a family that I have in Texas. They went for Talarico. They felt that he was the more viable option for them. You know --
COATES: Viable in the general election?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: In the general election because this is the thing: You know, people are voting strategically. At the end of the day, policy- wise, these candidates don't have a lot to differentiate them. It's more about style and who they are. And really, the people that I've spoken to in Texas, they want to win, and they feel like Talarico might be the ticket.
COATES: Well, know, obviously, there's a lot of games that's happening all across the board. And one area, of course, is the attorney general in Texas appealed to the Texas Supreme Court about those voting hours being extended. The attorney general, you guessed it, is Ken Paxton. There have been thoughts from the Crockett camp that people have thought who is the more viable candidate and try to suppress voters for her.
Talk to me about your impressions of these results so far and the fact that there is going to be a cloud no matter how you slice it over the fact that these polling hours is now an issue.
T.W. ARRIGHI, VICE PRESIDENT OF PUSH DIGITAL GROUP, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS AIDE TO LINDSEY GRAHAM AND MIKE POMPEO: Well, I would pump the brakes until we learn a little bit more. I think Ken Paxton and John Cornyn would love to run against Jasmine Crockett.
COATES: Why?
ARRIGHI: Because she's the more defeatable candidate. Lulu made a great point about Hispanics. She has lost tremendous ground with Hispanics due to her past comments about Hispanics and sort of their mentality toward voting. Jasmine Crockett also is just far out of line from where Texas is generally speaking.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: To be clear, she said that they had a slave mentality.
ARRIGHI: Yes. COATES: The ones that voted for Donald Trump.
ARRIGHI: That is correct. And, as you pointed out, they are going to be a battleground this race and all the races moving forward. So, there's tons of vulnerabilities there that can be exploited, especially if you're Ken Paxton, you have a bunch of baggage yourself. It's good to also direct a fire elsewhere.
But I think in the early stages here, John made an interesting point about how it's tough going -- being an incumbent and going into a runoff. But there's one X factor, and it's Donald Trump.
COATES: (INAUDIBLE).
ARRIGHI: Correct. But I think how these polls play out today and where the pecking order is and who the Democratic nominee is, I assure you, Donald Trump will be looking at where Paxton comes out, where Cornyn comes out, and then where Talarico is because it smacks a lot of 2018.
[23:15:06]
If we want to avoid that, Cornyn is our guy.
COATES: I do wonder, given the fact that there be a runoff and there is an incumbent involved, would that disincentivize Donald Trump from wanting to join in and endorse because the candidate was not a clear victor?
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, Donald Trump's endorsement pattern in this election cycle has been very different from prior election cycles. In prior cycles, he picked the person who was typically the more maverick candidate, the more outsider candidate. This cycle, he has been very pragmatic. He has picked the candidate that he thought could win the election in November. He has taken a lot of guidance from a lot of other people who had strong opinions about it. He's weighing his options and his endorsements pretty carefully.
I think T.W. is right. I think that if John Cornyn comes out tonight ahead and if the Republican number versus the Democrat number overall is close, which would be good for Democrats, Republicans typically outvote Democrats in primaries in Texas, if Democrat enthusiasm is a little higher, Talarico is the nominee, John Cornyn is ahead, I don't think it's impossible that Donald Trump weighs in here. He does not want Texas to be something we're arguing about in October.
COATES: Dan, talk to me about this matching game, right? If this person, then this person. I think about nationally.
DAN KOH, FORMER WHITE HOUSE SENIOR AIDE TO PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Yes.
COATES: The -- as Lulu points out, if you're talking about Talarico and Crockett, policy-wise, they're not that far apart in their stances. The way that they present themselves, worlds apart. They have very different personalities. And, frankly, Crockett has been on a national stage for far longer obviously than a state rep like Talarico. What does this say about the national Democratic Party and how -- and what they want out of their candidate.
KOH: Well, I think what's exciting is that whether it be Talarico or Crockett, there's a lot of enthusiasm behind both. And you're seeing Democratic enthusiasm, whether it be New Jersey, Virginia, Iowa, Oklahoma, even Arkansas tonight. In Texas itself, Democratic turnout has doubled since 2022. Trump's net approval has dropped 20 points. You have Cornyn, who's 13 points underwater. You have Paxton, who has public resources cover up his affair, underwater by nine points. Meanwhile, Crockett's net positive 10 points and Talarico's net positive 18 points. Right?
So, you know, there are five people in the ballot tonight, but this is really about one person, Donald Trump. And if you look at the national wins, it's a problem for Republicans in Texas.
COATES: I wonder if we're giving Donald Trump too much credit in this particular race. What do you think?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well, listen, if Donald Trump's endorsement mattered so much in this particular race and if -- and if -- and my Republican friends here could speak more about this than I can. I don't -- I don't know. But the thing here that I'm just noticing is that you can argue with voters all you want. You can tell them, hey, this is what we think you should do because this is how it's all going to play out. And voters do what voters do. They get excited by a candidate.
And there is a lot of, you know, enthusiasm for Ken Paxton. He's a known quantity. They see him as a fighter. They have dismissed, you know, some of the baggage that he carries.
COATES: Yes.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And they feel like he might be the man. And also, by the way, Donald Trump likes Ken Paxton much more than he likes Cornyn. So, even if Donald Trump says, you know what, Cornyn, I'm going to give you the endorsement, I mean, it's going to be out of the side of his mouth because we know that it's not his favorite candidate on the ballot.
COATES: Stand by, everyone. I want to keep talking about this. We have much more ahead. Ken Paxton, we are speaking about and just spoken about his runoff. Our reporter is at his headquarters, and we'll take you there, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COATES: The battle for the Republican nomination for the Texas Senate seat will head to a runoff. Republican incumbent John Cornyn will face MAGA favorite and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. And this race could hinge on the critical endorsement from President Trump, who you know has yet to weigh in on this race.
I want to bring in CNN's Arlette Saenz, who was at the Paxton Watch Party in Dallas. Arlette, how did Ken Paxton frame this runoff?
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Laura, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is preparing for a long 12-week fight in the runoff against Senator John Cornyn. As one Paxton supporter put it here tonight, they are preparing for all-out war against Cornyn.
Now, this really wraps up what has already been an increasingly heated primary between Cornyn, Paxton, as well as Congressman Wesley Hunt, who will not be advancing to this runoff. There have been very personal and heated attacks in this debate, something that we will expect to see in the next 12 weeks as this runoff plays out.
Now, Attorney General Ken Paxton took the stage here and decried a lot of the big money that has poured into this race. There was more than $70 million that came into this GOP primary to help boost Senator John Cornyn as he is really fighting for political survival in his seat in the U.S. Senate. Cornyn -- Paxton had argued that Cornyn is not always aligned with the president. He referenced some of Cornyn's past remarks when he had suggested back in -- ahead of the 2024 election that perhaps Trump's time was up in office. Take a listen to one of the attack lines that Ken Paxton previewed tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEN PAXTON, TEXAS SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: For too long, he stabbed our president in the back by trying to derail his presidential campaigns and supporting the Democrats' lawfare against the president. And for too long, he sold us out to Democrats, even siding with Joe Biden to push the worst gun control bill in decades.
(BOOING)
Those days are coming to an end.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[23:25:00]
SAENZ: Now, Senator Cornyn really worked throughout this campaign to try to show his loyalty to President Trump. And one of the main attack lines from Cornyn against Paxton has been around some of those controversies that have surrounded the state attorney general. That includes some legal and personal scandals as well. And he made clear, speaking to reporters tonight, that he plans to continue those lines of attack in this runoff. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX): Character is on the ballot. Ken Paxton doesn't believe that that matters. He believes that all of his misbehavior and his scandals are sort of baked in the cake, and he has won a couple of elections since much of that has come out. But there's much more that will come out in the runoff, which will demonstrate his unfitness for office and his liability, the potential liability of him being the nominee in November.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SAENZ: Now, one big question looming over this contest is whether President Donald Trump will decide to finally get involved. He withheld an endorsement for any of the candidates during this primary contest, but he has left the door open to potentially endorsing a candidate when they get to a runoff.
That is something that both the Cornyn sides and the Paxton sides will really be trying to push for in these next 12 weeks as they are trying to secure the GOP nomination. Both Cornyn and Paxton have said that it's an imperative heading into November that they are able to defeat a Democrat here at a time when some Democrats are holding out some hope that this could be the year Texas turns blue.
COATES: Arlette Saenz, thank you so much. My panel is back with me now. I have to say, when you talk about a grueling next 12 weeks, that phrase of a circular firing squad comes to mind.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: On both sides.
COATES: On both sides. And so, talk to me about the impact of this. Having a runoff, number one. Having the amount of money that has already been spent in terms of the attack ads and beyond. I mean, going into a general election, it's very problematic because now, all the Achilles heels are on full display.
TODD: This is already the most expensive Senate primary in the history of our country. And I don't think we're a third of the way through the money that will be -- will be in late May.
The challenge for both these campaigns, if you go into a runoff, you are aiming not just at the people who didn't vote for you, vote for that third candidate who are out, you're also trying to move new people in. One unique feature of the Texas primary is that it's quite small. You know, you'll have about 10 million people vote in a presidential general election in Texas. We're going to see like three million people tonight vote, three, three, two. So, there are a lot of people who are on the sidelines tonight who could come back into these runoffs and change who wins.
COATES: Tell me why this has been so expensive. What is the real fear among Republicans to make this so expensive?
ARRIGHI: Well, I don't know if it's a fear per se. It's the schism between the MAGA base and the more generalistic party. Look, going into this election cycle, we need to defend North Carolina. We have big races all over the country, Georgia and elsewhere. We can't be wasting resources going to Texas and donor sending money for a fight between Cornyn and Paxton.
COATES: Yet they are.
ARRIGHI: They are. But this is impetus that will -- that will fall on President trump. There will be senators calling him all throughout the night and all tomorrow saying, get behind Cornyn, he can win. And we don't have to worry. The polling proves it out, that he performs better than Paxton does.
COATES: But yet Paxton does -- I mean, yes, he's got scandals, but he also has somebody associated with affirmative action and the overturning and also with the abortion ban, which are issues that have been very popular among Republican voters.
ARRIGHI: Sure. But, by the way, we're talking about John Cornyn like he isn't a down the line conservative. He has been a great conservative voice on the Hill. He has been --
COATES: Oh, Dan is laughing. Why are you laughing?
KOH: I'm just loving this because everyone loves to accuse Democrats of being lame and being a circular firing squad. There wasn't a bigger snoozer than that little clip of Paxton talking. You compare that to a Crockett's energy or a Talarico's energy. And now, it looks like the Republicans are about to have a circling firing squad in Texas. Well, the energy is going to be with Democrats. Exactly where we want them.
COATES: Does it make a Democratic candidate more winnable as a result?
KOH: I think absolutely. And look, there's another important lesson here. There are two names of people that I used to serve within the Biden-Harris administration. Jason Garza (ph) and Azar Cohen (ph). They're the heads of video for James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett respectively. They are out there. They have a new type of campaigning that's getting the media attention. And, by the way, James Talarico going on Joe Rogan is one of the only reasons why he's going to be the nominee, right? He's not afraid to go to places.
COATES: You think he will best crack it?
KOH: If he does, a big reason will be he went on Joe Rogan. He did a phenomenal job. He was noticed. It's a place where Democrats don't usually go. It's a lesson learned that I think is really important.
[23:30:00]
COATES: Let's play a little bit of that clip from the Rogan interview.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES TALARICO (D-TX): There's a reason and good reasons to be disillusioned. I guess I'm -- all I'm pushing back on is that second step of it's always going to be this way.
JOE ROGAN, PODCASTER: Right, it doesn't have to be this way.
TALARICO: Right. That is the key step.
ROGAN: Right.
TALARICO: So --
ROGAN: You need to run for president.
(LAUGHTER)
We need someone who's actually a good person.
TALARICO: Well --
ROGAN: You're too -- you know, because the Democrats have very few candidates --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GARCIA-NAVARRO: You cut it right there. The Democrats have very few candidates that are cliffhanger, cliffhanger, dot, dot, dot, good people. You know, what I look at there, the reason he was on Joe Rogan is because he had a huge social media game already. He was noticed by Joe Rogan on Instagram and on TikTok because he already had that momentum. And so --
COATES: Like a Mamdani-style social media campaign?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: I mean, not a Mamdani style. It was actually him talking about his faith and him talking about his progressive values. And Joe Rogan found that to be an interesting juxtaposition. And that's where Talarico has sort of staked interesting ground for the Democratic Party, which isn't to say that Democrats don't have people of faith. I mean, you've got a preacher, you know, Reverend Warnock, who's a senator, you know, in Georgia. So, it's not like it's a new thing.
But, certainly, he has managed to sort of capture this young, sort of forward-facing, religious, progressive persona, talks about the Bible, talks about how faith doesn't have to only be owned by the right. And so, I think people have found that to be exciting.
TODD: I'll tell you another thing he captured. He captured Washington Democrats. You know, he outspent Jasmine Crockett five to one in this primary campaign because Washington Democrats cut off the spigot. They knew that she was radioactive in a general election. They knew this race would be over as soon as the nominations were done, if she was a nominee. Like it or not, she does excite the Democratic base. And that's her problem. She only excites the Democratic base.
So, with that five to one spending advantage, he's still barely winning the Democratic primary. That tells us a lot about where Democratic primary voters are. They're well left of their Washington leadership right now.
ARRIGHI: And, by the way, I would also add, as somebody who was featured in a Talarico ad recently, much to my surprise, kind of reminds me of another candidate who was really good on social media and ran a lofty campaign in Texas. His name was Beto O'Rourke. The difference between 2018 and today, when he lost by two and some change, is that the generic ballot was a bigger advantage for Democrats back then than it is now.
The Democratic Party is still unpopular branding-wise today. And the numbers still are better for Republicans, even though we are facing headwinds going into this election. So, when we talk about how are you going to make up that gap, oh, yeah, he was running against Ted Cruz, who is far more bombastic and divisive than John Cornyn is. So, the question is, then how do you make up that gap?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: But he was running against -- he was running against Ted Cruz. But you have the, you know, incumbency which always -- and the name recognition which always helps. I mean, if you have a Ken Paxton, who is well known in Texas, running against a Talarico, again, you know, it's going to be -- it's going to be a problem.
ARRIGHI: Exactly why I want Cornyn.
(LAUGHTER)
COATES: Well, thank you, everyone. We have a lot more to cover. I wouldn't count either candidate out yet at all. We're still tracking the results coming out of Texas, including the close race between Democrats James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. John King, back in the Magic Wall in just a moment.
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[23:35:00]
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COATES: A live look at the headquarters of Democratic State Representative James Talarico in Austin, Texas where we're waiting to see if he'll speak tonight as his race for Texas Senate against Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett remains too early to call. Let's to CNN's John King at the magic wall. John King, tell me what you're seeing.
KING: So, you look at this, you see 52 to 47, you see 85,920 votes ahead, and you ask the smart question at home, why haven't you called this race? Let me try to explain it to you. You've heard some controversy tonight about Dallas County. This is where Congressman Jasmine Crockett's district is. She says that she wants some votes counted. There has been a court case. The state Supreme Court has said, wait a minute, only if you voted before seven o'clock we want that to go forward.
As someone who's done this for 40 years, I hope everybody was in line at seven o'clock, gets their vote counted. But, and this is important, but, there would have to be 100,000, 200,000 votes here. There's no indication that's anywhere near that. That's not the issue. We want those votes to be counted. But Congressman Crockett would need tens of thousands, tens of thousands of votes to overcome.
Here's the reason we haven't called this race yet. There is another Democratic candidate on the ballot, a minor candidate on the ballot. So, we need to wait for a little more of the vote to come in to make sure that he stays above 50 percent.
It is most unlikely at this point that Congresswoman Crockett can come back. Mathematically, sure, it's possible, but you have 68 percent of the vote now counted. It is most unlikely. Improbable is being kind.
The question is, when the rest of the vote comes in -- let's just give you a look here. This is where the live outstanding vote is. You see some pretty big circles here. So, we're up to 60 percent or 70 percent in some of these population centers. But the early votes came in first. Our decision desk just wants to get comfortable with the election day vote, get up to a higher percentage so you're comfortable.
[23:40:00]
And you see the Houston area here, pretty big circle. Up in the Dallas area, pretty big circle. Even in Austin and San Antonio, the color tells you who's winning in those areas. So, if you're the Crocket campaign, you're saying, yes, there are some votes down here, there are some votes up here. Again, though, you look at that margin, 85,000, and you look at that. But the Republican race is going to a runoff because no candidate got 50 percent of the vote.
I just want to remind people here, just show up the share of the vote right here. There is another on the ballot here. And that other has 1.3 percent of the vote. So, you've got 51.9, so 52 to 47. The question is, as the rest of the votes come in, you know, does this third -- does this third candidate grow a little bit to keep -- to move that down from 52 to below 50? The math, as you come back to the full map, suggests that won't happen. But we're cautious, we're conservative here as we count votes.
And so, we just want more of the votes to get comfortable to make sure the democratic race is not going to go to a runoff. But it looks, at this moment, we're not there yet, but your eyes don't lie about the size of that lead.
COATES: And we know the Republicans have a runoff that's going to happen as well. Take us -- walk us through what's going on there.
KING: And so, you have the Democratic incumbent. Again, I said this earlier. I'm overgeneralizing a bit. But this is essentially Bush versus Trump in the state of Texas. John Cornyn goes back to the George W. Bush, Carl Rove days in Texas. He has drafted with Trump in the United States Senate. But he's not a Trumpy guy. Certainly not from a performative standpoint. He votes with the president most of the time. Republican incumbent in Texas getting 42 percent of the vote. That's not good. That's not good if you're the incumbent senator in your state in the Republican primary.
The attorney general, Ken Paxton, an election denier like Donald Trump, has sued to help Donald Trump in lot of lawsuits in the courts, much more Trumpy candidate, getting 41 percent.
Congressman Wesley Hunt, who has also been a Trump ally, Republicans are going to call him the spoiler in this race, at 13. What does this mean? This is definitely going to run off here, which means not until May will we know the Republican candidate.
And when you look at the map, there's no magic in looking at the map to say which candidate has an advantage. I will say this. This 13 percent of the vote did not vote for John Cornyn, the incumbent senator on the ballot. History tells you, if you're the incumbent, you do not want to be forced into a runoff because if you only got 42 percent the first time, that tells you about 60 percent of your party is looking for something different. Now, you're going to be in a one- on-one.
But I would say this. As you look at this map tonight, yes, there will be a runoff in May. Yes, Texas Republicans will settle their candidate then. But between an hour two ago, when we realized this was going to a Republican, and I would say a week from now, there's going to be a lot of phone calls, a lot of requests from Senator Cornyn, from Attorney General Paxton, from all of their allies on one man, the president of United States, asking him to put his thumb on the scale and try to settle this.
This is a tough midterm year for Republicans, Laura. This is the first primary night. Republicans tonight are going to lose their House majority. Can they change that between now and November? Sure. But history tells you, the president's approval rating tells you, they're going to lose their House majority and they are at risk of losing their Senate majority. Much more difficult for Democrats, but not impossible.
What do you want -- what do you not want if you're a Republican? To be spending tens of millions of dollars more on a family feud in Texas that could weaken your candidate and give Democrats a chance in a red state. So, this is going to become a big issue at the Trump White House. It already is. But when the sun comes up tomorrow, a lot of people are to be asking the president. Sir, you didn't endorse in the primary. How about the runoff?
COATES: John King, stay with us. Thank you so much. Coming up, we will go back to James Talarico's headquarters as results from this primary, they keep coming in.
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COATES: We are following the close race in the Democratic primary for Texas Senate. James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett are currently separated by about 85,000 votes. I want to go to CNN's Jeff Zeleny at Talarico headquarters. Jeff, how is the Talarico camp feeling right now?
ZELENY: Well, Laura, it has been a wait and see spirit here for the last couple hours. There was a big celebratory feeling, and then there was a bit of a deflation. But I have just been told a few moments ago that there will be a person on stage speaking here. The light just came on. But it is not going to be James Talarico.
I am told that a Texas state representative who is a surrogate and friend of the Talarico campaign, Senator John Bucy, will be addressing the crowd this evening. It is unclear if he's going to ask supporters to stay. Some of them have been trickling off. One told us as she was leaving, it's past my bedtime. So, we are going to hear from a surrogate and supporter of Representative Talarico here shortly.
I've also learned that there has been no communication between Talarico or Jasmine Crockett. Of course, they've been in a very fiercely competitive race. I'm told their campaigns have also not been communicating this evening. Of course, the Crockett campaign is in Dallas. Talarico is here in Austin.
So, all of this sort of leads to the one question, would there be party unity at the end of this bruising primary? It's always a question in primaries. Often, there is unity once that goes forward. But, look, Democrats are trying to do something that they've not done in a very long time here. That is flipping a Senate seat blue.
So, we will be hearing shortly from a top surrogate and supporter of Representative Talarico, and we'll see what he has to say about the campaign's plans.
[23:50:04]
But they do remain confident about their showing across the state of Texas. But, again, they are waiting and watching for more of that election day vote to come in before the race supporters can be called and before Talarico to address this crowd. Laura?
COATES: Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much. And my panel is back with me. We already heard from Jasmine Crocker earlier in the evening saying that she would not come back on stage tonight. There is this pending litigation issue with respect to the polls being at first extended two hours, and then not allowed to have those votes counted if you were not in line by 7 p.m. in the Dallas County Democratic polling places alone.
And just for our audience to realize, if this had been a joint primary, the voters could have voted anywhere in the county. Because it was a separate primary between Democrats and Republicans, they had to vote at a particular precinct. That caused confusion, hence triggering all this litigation in the courts.
But talk to me about just the fact that if the early voting that so many candidates, generally these two, were focused on, it didn't seem to pan out the way at least the Crockett camp thought.
KOH: It didn't. And then also, the Supreme Court -- sorry, the Texas Supreme Court litigation should be a warning sign for any Democrat concerned about whether the midterms are going to happen at all. Right? There's already litigation that are holding up potential votes. It already shows how election engineering and changing the way polling locations are conducted, how it can affect votes dramatically.
So, I think all Democrats should not take for granted that we are going to have free and fair elections in November. That means literally making sure that we are holding all of our secretary of states accountable. It means making sure we have the right lawyers and the right polling places, and it means having our cameras out in every single location to make sure that we're holding people accountable.
COATES: T.W. doesn't buy this.
TODD: That's an irresponsible comment. I mean, Texas has had three weeks of early voting. They've had no excuse walk-in voting at many remote locations in every urban county. You can vote by mail for Texas by any reason very easily. They've had early voting since 1994, longer than almost any state. It's irresponsible --
KOH: Are you --
TODD: This is chicanery.
KOH: Donald Trump has already said that he may have to take over elections in November.
TODD: I'm suggesting this is irresponsible for you to suggest, to say this is chicanery. Texans have had three weeks to vote. Don't say things that are going to tell people things that are not happening.
KOH: You don't think --
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And also, I have a question. Where is the proof that it has had a dramatic effect? I mean, I'm not clear that what has happened here with the polling places has had a -- quote-unquote -- "dramatic effect." I mean, there is no -- there is no evidence of that.
KOH: I think, at the very least, it has led to confusion, what people are -- routines and voting.
TODD: They voted at their precincts where they always vote. That's the way Texas --
KOH: We already have a president who has already said that he may take over elections in November. I don't think anyone should take for granted that we're going to have a normal election cycle this season.
ARRIGHI: There is a massive difference between confusion on election day that happened in Dallas. As you pointed out rightfully, three full weeks in a full jumping to federalization of electors. By the way, the Democrats tried to do it in 2018, but we don't want to talk about that. So, look, I think that is a massive jump to go from --
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But there is no evidence that this has anything to do with it or that he will. You just block that in --
COATES: Well, let's talk about what's happening in the field right now, in particular. This is for the next 12 weeks. Republicans are not going to have a candidate who will ultimately run in that general election. Democrats will likely know who their candidate is within hours, if not a day, of who it is. What is going to be the impact on Republicans, the two Republicans who are in the runoff, knowing full well they will have a set field with the Democrats? GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well, they're about to just aim all their fire at each other when they could be actually aiming their fire at the Democratic candidate. And so, obviously, this is a huge setback. And to paint it in any other way is, I think, you know, it doesn't -- I mean, of course, what Trump does is going to matter. Of course. I mean, he -- they both tried to run so close to Trump that it was like if their lips were any closer, they would have sort of like surgically been attached to him. So, obviously, what he does matters. But this is a huge, huge problem for them because they're going to be fighting with each other.
And meanwhile, the Democrats, if it looks like it continues the way it is and you're to have a clear nominee, are just basically going to be running against the Republicans, and they're not going to have this in fighting.
COATES: Well, I assume your larger point about the issue of and fair elections is that would be what Democrats have been running on or talking about for some time. That won't come into play yet here if the Republicans are essentially doing their own bidding against one another.
KOH: Certainly. But I just think that there is a generalized anxiety that any alteration of a regular schedule of elections, whether it be polling locations or whether it be changing other dynamics, is going to influence voter behavior.
[23:55:00]
It depends on how you define dramatic. I think even a single person who can't find their location or gets confused because of engineering of a change is going to be a problem for people.
And we can't take for granted this president who continues to mess with our Constitution. That all of a sudden, we just think that he's going to allow free and fair elections in November. I don't think that's something we should take for given.
COATES: We have a lot more to talk about that. I want to hear everyone's opinion. We have a lot to discuss. Everyone, stand by. A second live hour of our election night coverage continues after a quick break.
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