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Laura Coates Live

Texas Senate Primary Elections Ends with Democrats Too Close to Call and Republicans Heads to Runoff; Interview with Representative Greg Casar (D-TX); Source: CIA Working to Arm Kurdish Forces to Spark Uprising in Iran; James Talarico to Speak as Race Remains Too Early to Call in Texas. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired March 04, 2026 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening. I'm Laura Coates.

And we're following a doozy of an election night, the first one in the midterm cycle, and all eyes are on Texas where the battle for the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations are going into overtime.

For the Democrats, the race remains too close to call between Texas State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Talarico leads, but voting issues in Dallas County mean we're still waiting to get more results. Meanwhile, Republicans are headed to a runoff. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn will face State Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate reached 50 percent.

Now the focus turns to President Trump as he decides who he will endorse in the runoff. And moments ago, we got a hint of who Trump might support. Might support. Trump's 2024 campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, posting this warning to Paxton on X, quote, "The second wave is going to be a B word."

Our team of political experts are covering every angle of these races. I want to check in with John King at the magic wall.

John, what are we still looking for in this race between Talarico and Crockett?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It's after midnight. You don't read the B word?

COATES: I mean, it flows from my tongue quite fluently. But I decided to indulge.

KING: I appreciate you, I appreciate your family-friendly attitude here.

What are we looking for? We're looking -- we're looking in the Democratic Senate primary for just a few more votes because your eyes don't lie. That's a seven-point lead. We're at 70 percent of the vote in. It's 91,000 votes. And you look at the map, and it's pretty hard. It's almost impossible, improbable, that Jasmine Crockett can make it up.

You mentioned there's a controversy. There's going to be some litigation over which votes should be counted. The Texas State Supreme Court saying maybe some votes shouldn't be counted in Dallas County. And that's very important. And we should watch as that plays out. It'll probably take a couple of days in the courts here. But this is Crockett's home base. She's winning big. She is hoping that every -- if every vote that she wants to be counted, that it will help her a little bit here. But I want to be very clear about this. This is not about Dallas County. There are not enough votes there.

She would need tens and tens of thousands of votes to overcome Congressman Talarico. The only question we have at this point is, does Congressman Talarico stay above 50 percent? We'll show you the Republican race in a second. They're going to a runoff because no candidate got 50 percent of the vote. Talarico is now approaching 53 percent of the vote, as we get up to 72 percent of the vote in. So the trend line in his direction.

What are you waiting for? Number one, we're very cautious when we do this, especially with a lot of people out there questioning the legitimacy of elections. People count votes the right way, including here at CNN. The bigger the circle the more live outstanding votes. That means we're just waiting for more of the election day vote count to come in. We've gotten a little bit. It's been trickling in in the last hour or so.

Sometimes they go to bed. That's OK. Then you wake up the next day and they report more. So we have to get to a point where our decision desk is comfortable that Talarico is going to stay above 50 percent. Otherwise this goes to a runoff. It certainly looks that way right now as you look at where the outstanding votes are. Yes, the Crockett campaign can say down here in the Houston area, up here in the Dallas area.

But the Talarico campaign also has some circles there. And as you've watched this play out overnight, my history of being at this wall tells me he's in good shape as long as it continues to track the way it is.

One other thing I just want to show you, just to make the point. We don't have the -- there's one minor Democratic candidate on the ballot who's getting 1.3 percent of the vote. So Talarico, last time I showed this, he was just at 52, now he's moving closer to 53. That's the only question. Does that number, does his share of the vote stay above 50 percent? And we want to get comfortable by seeing a little bit more of the vote there.

We've been talking about things that could work, you know, in his favor or not. We had nothing from Williamson County the last time we spoke. His state representative district is here in Travis County. Travis County is the Austin area. He represents an area right here. His former district, all district he's stretched -- used to stretch it to Williamson County. So this is part of his base. We've been waiting for these votes to come in, and he's getting 72 percent as the first votes came in from Williamson County. So our decision desk is looking at places like that. What are we

looking for? We're looking for trends and that certainly bodes well for Mr. Talarico, Representative Talarico, as we wait. But we want to get to the comfort zone as we watch it out to make sure he stays above 50, which is not what happened here. And you mentioned at the top, Chris LaCivita, one of Donald Trump's top campaign aides.

We'll see what happens. We'll see if Chris is talking personally. He has a, let me say, interesting history with the consultants down in that race in Texas. It could just be that. Some of your guests at the table understand what I mean when I say this. Sometimes those grudges carry on in cycle after cycle after cycle. But John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, is going to be in a runoff against the Attorney General Ken Paxton.

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This is the race that has already shed a lot of Republican blood and a lot of Republican money. Now it goes into a May runoff in a state where, again, if Democrats are going to take back not just the House in this midterm year, but also the Senate, that's why on this first primary night, we're talking about Texas, and Democrats hope that this goes on for months and it's bloody but there will be a lot of pressure, Laura, on the president of the United States.

So when you see what his aides are saying, maybe they get to him. But sometimes Donald Trump marches to his own beat. But we'll see if he gets involved.

COATES: Let's talk about what's going on with the Republican Dan Crenshaw. He's in trouble.

KING: So one of the interesting things here. So you look at this, this is the Texas Republican map. I'll give you two races, including the one you just mentioned. Make sure I get into the right one here. Move over here. There we go.

Dan Crenshaw, very well known, nationally viable, I mean, visible Republican, is losing in his primary. We have not called this race yet, but 62 percent of the vote in, he's losing, 58 percent to 39 percent. Dan Crenshaw is a very conservative Texas Republican who occasionally runs afoul of Donald Trump. And this is what can happen to you in a primary election when you do that even in a red state like Texas.

So again, we're not at the finish line yet. But your eyes don't lie about the margin there. And it's just an interesting dynamic when you -- when you talk in this election year, when people say, you know, Trump's approval rating is underwater, why don't more Republicans stand up and challenge Donald Trump when they disagree with Donald Trump on tariffs or on this or on that? Well, this is one of the reasons why because in a primary campaign, if you are seen as not being with Trump, it can, in many places in the country, including Texas, hurt you.

I just want to give you one more footnote. A lot of talk about Tony Gonzalez. This is the Republican incumbent from Texas who tragically had a former congressional aide commit suicide. You've seen the text messages of an alleged relationship between them. I won't get into the details, but the House Republican leadership did not withdraw their endorsements of Tony Gonzalez.

They had hoped that he would lose his primary. We're only at 66 percent of the vote. He's 897 votes ahead right now. So we're not going to know the answer here until tomorrow, maybe even days as they count the votes. But the Republican leadership was hoping that the voters would solve their problem and send Tony Gonzalez home. Unclear if that will happen. He's leading at the moment.

COATES: John King, thank you so much.

I want to go to Jeff Zeleny at James Talarico's headquarters.

Jeff, we just heard from a Talarico surrogate there. What did he say?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Laura, a state representative, John Bussey, who served with James Talarico in the Texas statehouse, urged supporters here to sit tight. And so far, even at this late hour, most of them have. We've seen a few of them going home. One woman said it's past her bedtime, but many are staying. And this top surrogate of the Talarico campaign said that tonight their movement is shocking the nation.

He said we are still waiting for some more votes to come in, and he asked people to sit tight. So the anticipation of the Talarico campaign is that they will be able to speak tonight. They believe that they are confident of the performance across the state as John was just going through there. But they are still waiting for some of the election day vote to come in. And also mindful of the next task should he be declared the victor in this primary. Unifying this party is going to be the chief order of business.

I'm told that neither of the two candidates, Jasmine Crockett, the member of Congress, and James Talarico, have spoken to one another tonight. I'm told that no top campaign aides have spoken to one another tonight. However, talking to voters here over the last several days in Texas, many Democratic voters were torn over which candidate to support. I met a woman in Houston yesterday who decided to vote for Talarico, but she loved Jasmine Crockett.

I met the reverse of that today in Austin, someone who liked James Talarico voted for Jasmine Crockett. So the -- it's unclear how difficult it will be to unify the party regardless of how it goes. But for the candidates and campaigns, at least, they are not speaking but the Talarico campaign waiting for some more votes to come in. We will see if he's able to address this crowd here tonight, but the word is to sit tight. So most of them are.

And I can report that the bars are still open here in Austin. So that is what's keeping some of these supporters here at least a little bit longer. -- Laura.

COATES: Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much. I want to bring back my panel. Dan Koh, former special assistant to

President Biden and also a congressional candidate in Massachusetts, T.W. Arrighi, former senior communications aide to Senator Lindsey Graham, Lulu Garcia-Navarro, CNN contributor and "New York Times" journalist and podcast host, and Brad Todd, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist.

You know, it says a lot that these two candidates on the Democratic side, Crockett and Talarico, substantively, policy wise, not very far apart. Stylistically, seem to be worlds apart.

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Tell me your assessment of what this means knowing that Talarico is in the lead.

LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think he was able to make real inroads. He had a few key moments in the race. Basically, he -- I think he had a lot of money. He ran a very effective social media campaign.

COATES: Did the Colbert situation help?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: And then I was about to say he really took advantage of what happened with Colbert, where all of a sudden he was going to have an interview with Colbert and then Colbert said, they're actually trying to take away this interview, you know, because the viewers, because he's too much of a threat. And he ran on that. He basically said, they're trying to keep me quiet. And I think that had some resonance for voters in Texas.

COATES: I want to play for you guys what he has said about his faith. And I think, you know, we know faith can come in very different forms in politics. Listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JAMES TALARICO (D), TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: My faith teaches me to love my neighbor as myself. Not just my neighbor who looks like me. Not just my neighbor who prays like me. Not just my neighbor who votes like me. My granddad was a Baptist preacher in South Texas, and when I was real little, he told me that we're supposed to follow the two commandments that Jesus gave us. Love God and love neighbor.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: He is a Presbyterian seminarian, and he has used really every opportunity he can during the campaign to talk about his faith.

Is that an effective strategy that not only is helping him to be in the lead, but also could prove formidable in a general?

T.W. ARRIGHI, FORMER SENIOR COMMUNICATIONS AIDE TO LINDSEY GRAHAM AND MIKE POMPEO: Perhaps. I don't disagree with anything he just said there.

COATES: It'd be odd if you did.

ARRIGHI: Yes. I know. I know, right?

DANIEL KOH, FORMER SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT BIDEN: That's a new ad. That's a new ad.

ARRIGHI: No. I think it's always good to hear people talk about their faith, but then people might say, hey, look, I agree with everything you said, but then why do you believe X, Y, and Z? Why do you -- why are you OK with biological males playing in female sports? Why are you OK with expanded abortion access if you're a Christian? Why are you X, Y, or Z?

There's a whole host of things. Why do you say God is non-binary? There's all sorts of things that James Talarico will have to level with some of those Christian communities if he wants to peel them away from the Republican fold. It's a great message, but he has to level it with the rest of his political platform.

COATES: I mean, given who he may be up against if he wins, again, we have not called this race. The numbers are still coming in. The polls have not revealed the victor in the primary. But there's always this discussion whoever is going to be the victor in the Republican runoff, who they are anticipating they might run against, and say you have a Paxton who is ultimately running against somebody like a Talarico, I mean, you've got quite a juxtaposition of somebody who has led with his faith and a lot of the scandals that, say, a Paxton has.

How might that be playing out in the minds of Republican strategists?

BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think for Democratic donors, the endorphin kick of voting for the preacher against the philanderer will be just way too much to take and James Talarico will raise a lot of money from Democrat donors, even if he doesn't have a great chance to win, which I don't think he does have a great chance to win against anyone.

On the other hand, I think -- I think a lot of Republican primary voters in this runoff may be very pragmatic, and they're going to see that John Cornyn, if they don't agree with him on everything they think he's been a good senator, they think he's voted mostly the way they want him to, I think that that pragmatic voting will kick in in the runoff.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: What you're hearing is wishful thinking, I think.

TODD: No, John Cornyn did better than anybody thought he was going to do tonight. He was -- most polling had him trailing by five or six. He's ahead two or three. It's been --

COATES: Why do you think that is?

TODD: Well, I think first off both candidates took -- they trained their fire on Wesley Hunt in the closing stages of this -- of this primary, and I think most Wesley Hunt voters were John Cornyn second choice voters. And I think as they saw Wesley Hunt take on more water, they moved to John Cornyn.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Do you know the problem that I think Talarico is going to have? It's with black voters. Black voters in Texas are the bedrock as they are in many communities. There has been a lot of bad blood because of what happened with Colin Allred, allegedly, because now Jasmine Crockett. Clearly those two don't like each other very much. And I do think while Talarico is doing very well with white voters, with Latino voters, it remains to be seen if he can excite, you know, black voters in Houston, in Dallas. That is going to be important.

KOH: I think there was something really subtle. He's evoking a sense of unity in a time of intense division. We have a president who's dividing us on racial lines, on religious lines. His lines about loving thy neighbor, which obviously is a religious -- reminds you of President Obama saying there's not a red America or a blue America, it's the United States of America.

In a time where so many people are looking for hope, in a time of division, and want to see people actually get things done, I think that's really something that really touches on a visceral cord.

[00:15:07]

And you compare that to Paxton, who obviously has the philandering past and been impeached. I think that contrast is going to be very compelling.

COATES: Let's talk about, though, I want to bring out your point further, Lulu, because we are talking about primaries right now.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Right.

COATES: And in order to be successful in a general, you know, you have to get out, obviously, more than just your own party. Every single one of these candidates is going to have to expand their tent. They can't contract it. When you look at the options, what are the themes that need to be said, that need to convince voters that they should be under their tent?

Because you're talking about bigger issues than, say, the attack ads, there are some very core national issues that are going to come into play. What do you identify them as?

ARRIGHI: Well, the number one issue is affordability. It's always going to be the case. And look, I think voters are nuanced. They're practical. They might say, I love everything Talarico is saying, I wish we could come together, but I disagree with him on all these things. I do not think this is what is going to move our nation forward. I do not think that the Democratic policies that Talarico or Jasmine Crockett propose are what's going to put us on a path to affordability, that are going to bring my tax bill down, that are going to bring my grocery bills down.

And, oh, yes, I also kind of like Donald Trump, even though I don't agree with everything he says. I still would vote for Ken Paxton, even though I think his past is a concern. People balance that way. And also, you brought up black voters. That's really important. I kept mentioning 2018 in the Beto O'Rourke case, because that was the closest case study we have in recent times.

Turnout in that race was low, unusually low for both Republicans and Democrats. So if you're soft on black voters as a Democrat, that's a massive problem when every vote matters. They -- Democrats, there were 700,000 less Democrats that voted in that race than did the next year. A million less than they did four years later. So that's a massive concern.

COATES: Is it motivating enough with the potential to turn Texas blue that would draw out more voters than normal?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Listen, this is the big question of this election writ large across the country, right? Is it going to be a wave election? Is this going to be a blue wave, or is this going to be a blue -- what was it that happened with the Republicans? I thought it was going to be a red wave and then they called it a red like teardrop?

ARRIGHI: Dribble.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Anyway -- dribble? I mean, you know, and that's ultimately the question. I mean, it -- what we're seeing right now if the numbers hold is that you did have strong Democratic turnout, but it wasn't like, oh, my God, clutch your heart, I'm going to pass out with joy if I'm a Democrat. Looking at that, yes, people were excited. They're engaged. But it's not really clear if you can expand that, pull away from Republicans.

At the end of the day, though, what we know it's going to be drama. It's going to be expensive and it's going to be really, really ugly. And a lot of eyes are going to be on Texas. It'll tell you a lot.

COATES: It's already been expensive. We're talking about Republicans in the campaign already, and you've already said it's anticipated to be even more expensive now that you know you've got 12 more weeks before Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow.

TODD: I think Punxsutawney Phil is going to be out in the morning no matter what else we find out tonight. You know, the challenge for the Republican is much shorter, easier than the Democrat. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points. John Cornyn the last time he was on the ballot won by 10 points. Democrats haven't won a Senate election since 1988, so James Talarico can be a very good candidate, could run a very good campaign, and still get smoked by six or eight points.

Ken Paxton can be a bad candidate. He can have problems and still get smoked. And John Cornyn, of course, I think if he's the nominee, this race is over.

COATES: In favor of?

TODD: I don't think we can talk about -- John Cornyn. If John Cornyn wins the nomination, we're not talking about this race in October.

(CROSSTALK) ARRIGHI: But I may add. If you don't mind, just really briefly, but you brought up money and one of the reasons we got to get this thing over with this primary process over with in a hurry, is because we don't want that deviation of funds away from Susan Collins, from Michael Whatley, from all our other great candidates.

TODD: Michele Tafoya. From John Sununu.

ARRIGHI: And John Sununu. Exactly. And look, I worked on the Lindsey Graham race, and I saw how all that money flowed to Jaime Harrison only for him to get walloped by 10 because people convinced themselves that these phony poll numbers showed a resurgence of Democrats in South Carolina. I think what we're going to see is just as we've seen in cycles past in Texas, Democrats don't have as good of a shot as they think they do.

COATES: Everyone, stand by. More ahead on this very point. One of Jasmine Crockett's progressive colleagues in the House is calling James Talarico the future of the Democratic Party. He's live with us next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:24:19]

COATES: James Talarico is currently about 130,000 votes ahead of Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Senate Democratic primary.

Let's check back with Jeff Zeleny at Talarico's headquarters.

Jeff, you're there with Democratic Congressman Greg Casar, a Talarico supporter.

ZELENY: Laura, I am. Thank you very much.

Congressman, quite a night here in Texas, obviously. How did James Talarico capture the imagination of so many Texas voters during this rather brief campaign?

REP. GREG CASAR (D-TX): Look, James has shown that he can bring people together, whether you're conservative or progressive or independent, with a kind of campaign that talks about lowering costs for everyday people and tackling corruption.

[00:25:02]

And it looks like he's likely to be up against Ken Paxton, who has been indicted for corruption by the federal government in the past and impeached by his own Republican colleagues for corruption. And so I think James drew a very clear contrast of what it looks like to be an elected official that really cares about people and cares about their pocketbooks.

ZELENY: Obviously, long before November, and it's unclear what Republican will make it through that runoff in May. But this race has still not been called. The Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett who you served with is saying that voters in Dallas County and elsewhere were disenfranchised.

What do you call on her to do after this is resolved?

CASAR: Well, look, I think that Democrats and frankly Republicans, Texans, should be outraged about the Republican officials in Dallas County and then in Williamson County here in the Austin suburbs changing the rules and ultimately making it so much more difficult for people to vote. And what I tell folks is, when you see politicians, officials trying to make it harder for you to vote, you've got to turn out in even greater numbers.

So I've urged James, Jasmine, every part of our party to come together and tell folks that the folks that are trying to stop you from voting are also the same folks that are lining their own pockets in office, the same people making things more expensive, and to come out and turn out in record numbers this November. We're seeing record turnout in this primary. We need record turnout also in November.

ZELENY: Do you anticipate that unifying this party will be a challenge after the winner is declared?

CASAR: I see the party being unified because we have two excellent candidates that know each other well. And so I think they're going to come together. And I think our party is going to come together after tonight to win in November. And I think voters are fired up to win in November, because we actually know that we have a shot of flipping the state this year.

And don't take that for me as a Democrat. Take it from the National Republican Senate Campaign arm, who put out a poll showing that they're very worried that Ken Paxton loses by a significant margin to James Talarico if the race was today.

ZELENY: But for Democrats to do something that they've not done in really since 1988, elect a Democratic U.S. senator from Texas, the party would have to be, one, unified but also, what would it have to do? Would the Talarico campaign, should he be declared the victor, have to keep trying to expand the tent and win over moderate voters and maybe some disillusioned Republicans? Is that the right strategy?

CASAR: Look, this is not just about running further to the left or further to the right. It's about running right towards working class people. The vast majority of Texas voters, regardless of ideology, feel like the government doesn't work for them. And so having an inspirational candidate that's going to make your life better, that makes a huge difference.

And the last thing I'll say is, in 2018, Beto O'Rourke came awfully close to beating Ted Cruz. Just a couple hundred thousand votes difference. Since then, the Republicans have voted to kick four million Texans off of their affordable health care, all to give billionaires a tax break. If just a few thousand of those millions of Texans come out and vote for James Talarico, you could see a huge swing here in November.

ZELENY: The final thing here, do you hope that this race is resolved if not tonight at some point quite soon so Democrats can get on with the fall campaign?

CASAR: Yes. But look, I think this was, of course, a difficult primary. And you're going to have a difficult primary when it feels like the person we nominate actually has a really good shot of being not just our general election nominee, but winning the U.S. Senate race. So I understand. I think it should be understandable that this was a difficult primary, but now it's time for everybody to come together and recognize that we are taking on these lawless politicians, the Trump politicians who lied through their teeth about bringing down costs, and all they've done is pushed costs up while lining up their own pockets. And we've got to really focus on that.

ZELENY: Congressman, quite a night here in Texas. Thank you very much.

CASAR: Thank you very much.

ZELENY: Laura, back to you.

COATES: Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much.

Much more on the Texas Senate primary ahead but we're also covering a major development in the war with Iran. Sources telling us that the CIA is planning to arm Kurdish forces to spark an uprising in Iran. The very latest next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: Breaking news in the Middle East. The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces in hopes those forces can create the uprising in Iran President Trump is calling for.

[00:34:05]

And Kurdish armed groups do have thousands of forces in the region. One Iranian Kurdish official telling CNN, quote, "We believe we have a big chance now."

Now, the Pentagon has identified four of the six U.S. service members who were killed in an Iranian drone strike on Sunday: Captain Cody Khork, Sergeant First Class Noah Tietjens, Sergeant First Class Nicole Amor, and Sergeant Declan Coady. Our deepest condolences to their families.

With me now, retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery; lead global security analyst at "The Washington Post" Josh Rogin. Lulu Garcia- Navarro and Brad Todd are also back with me.

Admiral, I want to start with this news that multiple sources telling CNN that the CIA is working to provide weapons to the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces to try to spark an uprising in Iran. Is that a sound strategy?

[00:35:03]

REAR ADMIRAL MARK MONTGOMERY (RET.), U.S. NAVY: Well, I'm not sure if the Kurds are going to be the right source, but I'll tell you the two times I've been involved in operation -- air-only operations that were eventually successful were Libya in 2011 and Kosovo in 1999.

In both cases, there are armed insurgencies on the ground. You know, 50,000 plus. The KLA in Kosovo or the former army forces in Libya.

So, you need those armed insurgents. Whether the Kurds are the right ones, I think, is a good discussion to have, but you do need those armed insurgents or an air-only campaign won't work.

COATES: What are the risks? I mean is that enough?

JOSH ROGIN, LEAD GLOBAL SECURITY ANALYST, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Well, the risks are that you're going to spark a civil war inside of Iran that's going to plunge the nation into devastation for a generation without achieving any of your aims, and that you're going to drag Turkey into the war by supporting the Kurdish PKK, which is against the Turkish government.

And then, you're just going to expand the war, and nothing's going to be achieved.

I mean, we've seen time and time again that trying to force armed insurgencies onto countries with no legitimacy is a recipe for disaster.

And the best-case scenario is that the Kurds carve out a piece of Iran that they can rule and defend against the IRGC. And the worst-case scenario is that it actually just plunges that country into much more suffering than they -- than they even have now.

And I think it's a fool's errand. And I think all -- all of the possibilities are pretty much negative.

COATES: Admiral.

MONTGOMERY: Yes, I'd say the armed insurgency that would work, I think, would be if the -- the actual Iranian army, the non-IRGC military units, the Artesh, if they were to actually turn on the government. That's the kind of armed insurgency that I think would be successful.

Because it wouldn't be a -- a -- some kind of a, you know, sectarian or -- or tribal difference, which is what -- you know, Josh is right, that you'll get that. If it's a Kurdish-led insurgency, there's going to be a lot of blowback against the American effort.

ROGIN: Yes, you're going to turn the Iranians in favor of the regime, because they're going to be against the Kurds. And it's going to -- just think about what we're doing to this country. We're going to topple their government, and then we're going to say, Oh, we want you to rise up against the IRGC, but we're not going to give you the tools to do so.

So, the Democratic opposition is going to get crushed. The Kurdish opposition is going to be in a constant state of war. And none of those things result in a stable Iran. None of those things result in an Iran that is -- is a constructive member of the region or does anything that the Trump administration says that it wants.

And to do this after the fact, after we already invaded, and we already attacked, just shows that we're -- have -- we have a strategy that's tactically very effective, but strategically completely bankrupt.

Because the -- we already started the war, and they still have no idea who's going to run Iran. They have no idea what they're going to do, and they have no idea what they're doing. And it's pretty obvious.

And I just think that's, you know, grossly irresponsible. And for them to come in now and say, Oh, don't worry, we're going to get -- we're going to arm a bunch of thousands of Kurdish fighters in the middle of the -- the Iraqi, you know hinterlands, and they're going to solve the problem is just ridiculous.

And it's an insult to the intelligence of Americans and an insult to the aspirations for freedom of millions of Iranians also.

COATES: There's also been a lot of confusion in terms of not just the what now, but the why now has been a part of the issues that everyone's been talking about.

And you had Secretary Rubio arguing yesterday that the U.S. feared Iran would retaliate in response to an Israeli attack. Then today, the president said this, Lulu.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack if we didn't do it.

If anything, I might have forced Israel's hand.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Yes. It's been one different sort of justification for this after another. And to Josh's point, the issue here is who benefits if you have an Iran that is in civil war, is completely at each other's throats. You have a region that is fighting? Who benefits?

Israel benefits. And so, at this point, you have to ask, what is the strategic aim that the United States has here? And how does America benefit from this, having an entire region plunged into conflict?

We've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end very well for us. So, I'm just very curious. I have yet to hear an explanation from the administration as to how this helps the United States in any way, shape, or form two weeks from now, three weeks from now, three years from now.

[00:40:02]

COATES: Not the kind of question you want to ask politically in a midterm election year.

BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, wait a minute. The -- the region has already been plunged into conflict because of the Iranian regime. They funded Hezbollah. They funded Hamas. They've attacked American troops in every place they're stationed there.

Now, they've lobbed missiles at almost every Arab country, to their neighbors.

There is no such thing as leaving this regime in charge and having a stable Middle East.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: You don't think you could have negotiated, though? I mean, that was --

TODD: No, clearly. They've had 27 years to negotiate. This is --

ROGIN: Well, it seems like President Trumps plan is to leave the regime in charge. He wants to do a Venezuela, where he finds another IRGC or an ayatollah who's not the one that they just killed. That's what he said.

So, the plan is to leave the regime in charge.

TODD: A decapitation

ROGIN: According to you, that's a terrible plan.

TODD: No, a decapitated regime that has no more missile launchers, no more capabilities for building missiles, no more navy, no more nuclear program. That's a much better scenario for us than what Barack Obama did in 2009, when the Green Revolution happened in Iran, and he left them completely helpless.

And then he sent pallets of cash. He sent pallets of cash to Iran. President Trump sent Tomahawks to Iran. I'll take the Tomahawks.

COATES: Admiral, President Trump says the U.S. will provide insurance to tankers in the Gulf and, quote, "If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible."

There is danger, obviously, in that mission. But to the point we're talking about the table, as well. I mean, what is the -- the likelihood that the United States could trust that there could be autonomy for the Iranians?

MONTGOMERY: So, first, I'd say on this Straits of Hormuz, getting rid of their navy is good, but that was really not what was threatening the Straits of Hormuz.

The two things threatening the straits are mines which, you know, you and I could get in a bog (ph) camera and go lay some mines, if it was necessary.

And it's not like the Iranians are, like, we're going to conform with, like, a Geneva Convention for minelaying, you know. So, it's -- this random minelaying is still out there.

We're really going to have to do a lot more rebelizing (ph) of the naval areas before we can know they're gone.

And the other is cruise missiles. And those really put our ships at risk from that short range a shot. So, that's going to be very -- I think it's a couple weeks before we can set the conditions to do convoy escorts.

And that's a couple more weeks of really hitting things hard, which is why Dan Caine says this is a three-, four-, five-week kind of mission set.

And even then, I don't think the Joint War Council, which is the group of maritime insurers, are going to go along with the -- with the U.S. plan here to provide, like, an insurance of last resort through the DFC.

I think they're going to continue to consider it a listed area, which is going to stop anything other than shadow fleet ships of the Iranians from trying to transit the straits, and we won't be escorting those ships.

COATES: Last word.

ROGIN: Yes. It's clear that this war is expanding. It's escalating. More countries are getting involved. And it's going to have an increasingly damaging effect, not just on the Iranians in the region, but on the U.S. economy.

And what the Iranians are betting is that they can take more pain than the Trump administration is willing to take, and that the American economy is willing to take. It's a war of attrition where everybody loses.

And in a race to the bottom, our plan is that the Iranians are going to yield. But I'm not sure that that's going to be the case.

COATES: Admiral Montgomery, Josh, thank you both. Lulu and Brad, please stick around. We have a lot more ahead.

We're waiting to hear from State Representative James Talarico, who is expected to take the stage at any moment as his race against Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett remains too early to call. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:48:13]

COATES: We're waiting for James Talarico to take the stage and speak amid a very tight race against Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Senate Democratic primary.

Jeff Zeleny is at Talarico headquarters. What can you tell us? JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Laura, you can

see on the stage behind me here, it's now finally filled with people. Many of these people have been waiting a little over five hours here tonight to learn the outcome of this really blockbuster Senate Democratic primary here.

I am told that James Talarico is going to be coming out momentarily. He is going to be talking to Texas Democrats, to his supporters, but also perhaps extending an olive branch to the many voters here in Texas who did not support him, As he looks forward.

I am told he is almost certain to stop short of declaring any type of victory, even though his campaign is quite confident of the showing in this primary. They liked the enthusiasm that they saw through early voting, and they like the turnout in many of the urban and rural areas across Texas.

However, this race has not been projected. It has not been called. Obviously, it has the extra layer of complication here. His rival, Jasmine Crockett, has said that voters were disenfranchised in Dallas county and perhaps elsewhere.

So, all of that, I'm told, will be threaded together in this speech that James Talarico is going to give. I'm told he's reworking it right now; probably going to give some version of this speech he always intended or hoped to give. We've seen that in many elections over the years when, even in defeat, some of the candidates often give some of the same themes.

So, there will be forward looking themes. Of course, he hopes he is the Democratic Party's nominee. Of course, I expect him to talk about the choice and the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

[00:50:04]

We do know that John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, the attorney general, will be facing a runoff.

So, for the next two months, Republicans are doing that, and Democrats are hoping to avoid that. And having a straight on race here.

So again, you can see the people gathered behind me here with their Talarico signs. I'm told the candidate himself will be taking the stage shortly -- Laura.

COATES: Jeff Zeleny, thank you. We're eager to hear what he has to say.

I'm back with my panel. OK. Jeff talked about an olive branch and the delicate threading of a needle, because this has not been called.

He wants to be the winner. He wants to look ahead to a general, which means he has to have a bigger tent than just Democrats voting for him. What does that look like? What does that tent comprised of? Who's under it? Well, the first thing you'd have to do is to find a thing where he's

going to boldly disagree with the party's consensus. That's how you turn a red state into a winnable purple state. Or that's -- that's -- he's got to pull off a miracle here and that's going to mean finding something that he can criticize his party on. He hasn't done that yet.

COATES: Criticize his own party on?

TODD: Ye. Has to criticize his own party. He hasn't done that yet.

Where is his apostasy going to be? How is he going to be like Joe Manchin? How is he going to be like Kyrsten Sinema? I haven't heard that yet from James Talarico.

T.W. ARRIGHI, FORMER SENIOR COMMUNICATIONS AIDE TO LINDSEY GRAHAM AND MIKE POMPEO: I think what's really interesting is that when you see Congressman Cesar, I think it's a preview of what the messaging is going to be. Not about Republican versus Democrat, but about corruption versus integrity.

He gave -- he gave the highlights of what people are sick of seeing with this president, whose approval ratings are at 34 percent: crypto, Bibles, cologne. Epstein files. People are --

COATES: Secrets (ph) --

ARRIGHI: Exactly. People are sick of that.

People are sick of Democrats and stock trading, right? People are just sick of seeing their elected officials grift the system. And I think that's going to be the message you're going to hear from Talarico.

that allows for a bigger tent. I think there's a lot of hunger for that in our country right now.

COATES: So, what does it look like over the next 12 weeks whether while there's a count a runoff happening between Cornyn and Paxton? Is it prudent for the Democrat who is going to win here to sort of lay low or just tout their own successes or their own attributes? Or is it a matter of being on the offensive against Republicans?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: I mean, grab some popcorn, for sure. And use those ads, that are going to be brutal, to your own effect.

But I do think at this point what -- whomever wins -- and it looks at this point like Talarico might be the person -- you take the higher ground. You take the high road.

That has been, actually, true to his message up until this point, which is I'm a brush -- a breath of fresh air. I'm coming in to what has been a very corrupt system, according to him, in Texas. And I'm here to break that log jam.

And of all the candidates, he's actually the only one who is new in that sense, who is unknown and does have a message.

Because on the Republican side, you've got two guys who've got a lot of baggage.

COATES: Let me just ask you, do you think that particular style is what Democratic voters on a national scale want? His temperament?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: I mean, listen, I think that that fight is one that you're seeing right now, right? This is a fight that you are seeing play out in every state across the country. Democrats, I think don't know what they are.

I don't think they under -- they have a real sense of what the soul of the party is. You're seeing this even on, like, who is supposed to be the 2028 candidate. Do you want a fighter who is going to take over -- you know, fight with Donald Trump?

Or do you want someone who's going to be a centrist, who's going to try and bring people together?

This is something that has scrambled the Democratic party 100 percent, because people don't know. Do we want someone who can send this message of unity, or do we want someone that's going to stick it to the man?

COATES: Republicans are also having a kind of identity -- I wouldn't call it a crisis on that issue. But there certainly is division among the party as to what is their style, who do they want?

I mean, Cornyn is, what, a four-time senator. It doesn't count for much. He's in a runoff right now.

Millions of dollars and millions have been spent, and it's still very close at this point in time. So, you've got the idea of money in politics not carrying as much weight, and you've got an incumbent of his degree not being able to rule the day, even without the scandals.

DAN KOH, FORMER ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT BIDEN: Yes. I mean, that's why President Trump weighing in or not weighing in is such a massive deal. And we want the Democrats to be pouring money into this race to divert. And so, we can use ours on more on states that we feel are more competitive.

But to your point about what Talarico needs to do, he doesn't have a day to waste in defining himself as the Republicans get their act together.

And I think you hit the nail on the head. He needs to be able to differentiate himself from the party. If we've seen anything from national generic ballot polling, it is that Democrats still have a massive identity problem with the American people. Their brand is tarnished.

So, how is Talarico different, other than being a seminarian, other than having, you know -- giving good speeches? He needs to offer more. He needs to offer a different vision for --

[00:55:09]

GARCIA-NAVARRO: But you've seen that with Ruben Gallego in Arizona, for example. I mean --

ARRIGHI: A lot more conservative state.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: It's -- it's -- yes, it is. But what I'm saying is that there is a blueprint here. It's not like there isn't a blueprint for Democrats to sort of, you know, change who they are.

If you think of Ruben Gallego, he was on the far, you know, progressive left of the party, and he pivoted to the center to win his Senate race in Arizona. And he took an issue, to your point, like immigration and the border, in particular.

Not immigration. I hate -- immigration isn't the border, et cetera. But he took the border. And he, you know, made that an issue for himself. And so, we'll see what Talarico does.

TODD: And energy, too, to some extent, too. He's criticized Democratic policies on CAFE standards and those sort of things.

Again, James Talarico, though, is the NPR tote bag candidate. He is for everything that NPR fans are for. There's -- he is very, very comfortable with upscale, white, educated liberals. That is his wheelhouse. And I have not yet seen anything he's done.

COATES: But Joe Rogan seemed to want him for president. I don't know. Is he the tote bag person you're talking about?

TODD: The fact that he was willing to go on Joe Rogan is -- the fact that we now call that a mark of him being a moderate tells you how there just aren't any moderates left in the Democratic Party.

KOH: By the way, Joe Rogan also, at one point, endorsed RFK Jr.

TODD: Bernie Sanders.

KOH: And Bernie Sanders. So, he -- he is a mixed bag. And he's -- again, he is a nuanced --

COATES: Is he a mixed NPR bag?

KOH: No, no, no, no, no.

COATES: NPR tote bag, you said?

KOH: He is a -- he is a -- but he is a -- he's a free thinking, nuanced guy. He takes a little bit of this. He takes a little bit of that.

And by the way, that's how a lot of voters are. But in Texas they are more to the right than they are in the average place. So, how does Talarico do it? I don't Know.

ARRIGHI: I think people have lost a lot of faith in the Democratic party, especially people who want to believe in good politicians. They see them accepting corporate PAC money. They see them trading stocks. A man of faith like Talarico, who is talking about candidly elevating

our conversation back to unity beyond party, I think is going to be really compelling in Texas.

COATES: "The Washington Examiner," which is a very conservative newspaper, pointed out on the issue of faith, said, "Talarico's Senate bid is offering a version of Christianity that fits comfortably within the left and giving Democrats uneasy with religion permission to engage with it on their own terms."

Is -- is that a larger lesson for Democrats going forward, or Republicans, frankly.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: I think it works for him, because that's who he is. I don't think like, all of a sudden, if you are not that person and you start, you know, bringing out the Bible, it's going to help you.

I mean, what I think people are looking for is some degree of authenticity. I mean, this is the big lesson of Trump, among many others, is that love him or hate him, you know who the guy is, right?

And so, that is something that I think many people, some unsuccessfully, are trying to emulate. The thing about Talarico is that that's who he is. He's a seminarian who has progressive values.

TODD: I think it's going to help him with black voters. Jasmine Crockett did very well among black voters tonight. In fact, it's why she's very close in this race.

Black voters are the most devout members of the Democratic coalition, and I think James Talarico's comfort --

GARCIA-NAVARRO: And Latinos.

TODD: -- talking about his own faith -- and Latinos.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: And Latinos, it's going to play very well with them.

TODD: It's going to help him bring black voters in. Unless Jasmine Crockett wants to have sour grapes, which she might.

COATES: Let me ask you about this, because, I mean, Democrats, they tried in 2018 to win the Senate seat. That failed. They tried in 2022 to win the governor's seat. That also failed. They tried in 2024 again at the Senate. And that failed.

Do you think Texas really is in play this year, despite the fact that we're watching, obviously, the primary is Texas really in play?

KOH: I think there are larger forces where that actually makes that a reality right now. And again, to the point of authenticity, he -- he has promoted himself as a man of faith, a man of integrity.

The contrast could not be greater with Trump's pick of -- if you take LaCivita's word, Trump's pick with Paxton. There's plenty of baggage there that could really sink him. COATES: Let's listen in. I think we've got Talarico getting ready to

come onto the stage. I see the crowd. Yep he is preparing. He has climbed the stairs. He is approaching that lectern. Let's listen.

STATE REP. JAMES TALARICO (D), U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE: Thank you. Thank you all so much. I appreciate you all. Thank you for staying up. Thank you. Thank you.

Tonight -- tonight our campaign is shocking the nation. We -- we are still waiting for an official call, but we are confident in this movement we've built together.

Every -- every vote must be counted. Every voice must be heard. The voter suppression in my home county and in Congresswoman Crockett's home county underscores the gravity of this moment.

This -- this movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and in this country.