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Laura Coates Live

Trump Rallies In Red Alaska, Senate Debates In Key Battlegrounds; Judge Extends White House Access To Banned Media Outlets; Speaker Johnson: The Polls Are Wrong; White House Ousts Kimberly Guilfoyle Amid Scandal; One-On-One With Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Aired 11p-12a ET

Aired October 13, 2026 - 23:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[23:00:00]

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR AND SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Give her some time. She's a human being. This is a non-story compared to all the really important things that are going on, and it comes off as inside baseball and mean.

KATIE PORTER, FORMER CALIFORNIA REPRESENTATIVE, FORMER CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I think we actually all said, well, I don't know.

JEMELE HILL, PODCAST HOST, CONTRIBUTING WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC: No, we did not all say that.

PORTER: We actually don't agree on much of anything, Scott, but I think we both did say that it's her first day. I would give her a little grace. I think what I'm worried about is whether there's room for her to get there, because it was a fast-paced job, and they've already put her out there.

Now, if she goes into hiding for a week, that'll become a story.

HILL: Was that a job?

LYDIA MOYNIHAN, CORRESPONDENT, NEW YORK POST: Careful of James Talarico.

HILL: But is that a job that you have room to get there when the core function of your job is the thing she automatically failed at?

PORTER: I think we've seen press secretaries get better.

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH, SALEM RADIO HOST: And we've also seen them get worse. The last one we had in the Biden administration was terrible on her first day, and even worse on her last day.

PORTER: Well, now you're not giving her any.

PHILLIP: I think that as somebody who's been in that briefing room with a lot of press secretaries over the years, yes, everybody grows in the job. It's by nature.

But I also think that a 15-minute briefing in which you can't get through a pre-written statement is problematic and emblematic of your preparation for the job. And there are many people who are qualified and prepared for the job.

And I think it's a fair conversation to have. Is it the most important thing happening in America right now? Absolutely not.

Okay, next thing. Kimberly Guilfoyle.

Why should we follow the laws when this President and his goons do not? We either live under the rule of law or we don't.

And then another viewer says --

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: If you don't follow the law and you're not last name Trump, you're going to end up in jail.

The other viewer says, related to this, I'm waiting for Kimberly Guilfoyle to write a Trump tell-all.

Oh, she will.

HILL: Yes.

JENNINGS: I'm waiting for a Newsom tell-all.

HILL: They thought for a clean under the bus.

JENNINGS: He's the one that's going to run for President.

PHILLIP: I thought that already happened.

(CROSSTALK)

JENNINGS: Like, we'll see.

PHILLIP: Yes, I'm not sure. I'm not sure she wants to.

NAVARRO: She's had a hell of a physical and I think personality transformation since those days when you go and look at her interviews back then and what she was saying back then to the person she's become.

PHILLIP: All right, everyone. Before we go, you can stream this show live or watch on demand with an all access subscription. Scan the Q.R. code on your screen or go to cnn.com/watch to learn more.

Thanks for watching "NewsNight." "Laura Coates Live" starts right now.

LAURA COATES, CNN HOST AND SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Well, there's that familiar music. Good evening, everyone. Welcome to the special edition of "Laura Coates Live: Countdown to the Midterms." You know, we're exactly three weeks away from Election Day as we speak, and control of the House and the Senate is at stake. And if today is telling us one thing, it's this: Republicans are scrambling to figure out where to fight and how much they should embrace the president of the United States. He was in Alaska tonight rallying with Senator Dan Sullivan, who was right there beside him. I should point out, this is a state that Trump won by 13 points just two years ago but now, Democrat Mary Peltola has the president fighting to keep the Senate seat red.

Now, on the opposite end of the country, we've got him going to Maine, it's a very different approach happening there. Democrat Troy Jackson facing off against GOP Senator Susan Collins for their now third debate, but Collins spent a lot of time trying to create some serious distance between herself and President Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TROY JACKSON, U.S. SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: If she wants to stop the war, she can cut the funding off for the war, but she's not willing to do that because Donald Trump wants this.

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R), MAINE: I agree that the president did not have a good plan. He should have anticipated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which part of the world's oil travels. And I don't feel that that was well anticipated, although it should have been.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: And then there's the Senate race in Iowa between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, another state Trump won by 13 points. And tonight, Hinson and Turek actually had points of agreement. Why? Because Hinson broke with Trump on his deal with Russia to waive sanctions on diesel fuel and again called for an end to the war in Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ASHLEY HINSON (R-IA), IOWA SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: In this country, we need to lower diesel prices, but I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it. We need to bring an end to the war in Iran. It's why I called for an immediate and successful end.

JOSH TUREK, MEMBER OF IOWA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, IOWA SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: We're spending more than a billion dollars a day over in Iran while we're being told we don't have money for schools and roads and hospitals and we're leading the nation in farm foreclosures.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[23:04:59]

COATES: That delicate political dance is playing out all across the country, even in places where Republicans once felt pretty comfortable, because if you really want to see how the midterm map is changing, I mean, look past the rallies, look past the debates, just follow the money. Republicans are now making some tough decisions about where to spend and where to cut their losses. The top House GOP super PAC is now pulling ad spending from four key battleground districts, four of them, including two held by Republican incumbents.

I'll seat my panel for tonight, White House correspondent for Bloomberg, Jeff Mason, former communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris, Ashley Etienne, Washington Post editorial board member Carine Hajjar, Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett, and the founder of Endeavor PAC, Tiffany Smiley. Glad to have all of you here.

Let's talk about the landscape that we're seeing three weeks away, Kareem, because Senator Collins is trying to thread a pretty important needle. She's trying to distance herself. But is that effective in a place like Maine right now?

CARINE HAJJAR, EDITORIAL BOARD MEMBER AT THE WASHINGTON POST, FELLOW AT STEAMBOAT INSTITUTE: Look, two things are really going to work for her. One is just proving her bipartisan record. That's what she's going to have to hammer home over and over again because this is the main attack that Troy Jackson has against her, trying to align her with Donald Trump. The truth is that Senator Collins has a pretty bipartisan record.

The second thing that's really going to help her, that I've seen and heard from voters on the ground, is that everyone really knows who she is because she has helped fund plenty of programs throughout the state of Maine.

And what I've -- just anecdotally speaking to voters, the type of excitement you hear around Troy Jackson versus Graham Platner pre -- oh, the scandal is coming out, it's lower for Jackson as a candidate. It's more what he represents, an opportunity to flip the Senate. So, what Collins is really running against is, one, does Maine want to flip the Senate vote? But two, can she distance herself enough from Trump?

COATES: I want to go to Georgia for a second, for us to weigh-in, because Senator Jon Ossoff, he's also walking a fine line. It's a political tightrope, frankly. And whether he would put any conditions on continued military support for Israel, listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JON OSSOFF (D), GEORGIA: We should assess in every case whether that foreign government is acting consistent with our interests, our laws, and our values. Israel had every right to go to war with Hamas after the despicable October 7th terrorist attack. I also believe that it's right for U.S. senators to ensure that American laws and international laws are being respected by those who fight with our weapons.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: Wasn't the most direct answer, Ashley. Is that the right strategy for this particular topic?

ASHLEY ETIENNE, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR TO SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI: Yes. I thought it was -- I thought it was actually a superb answer. I think it's a reasonable answer. I think it's one that would have resonance with Democratic voters, independents, and disaffected Republicans.

You know, Senator Ossoff has really proven to be one of our most effective communicators in terms of for the Democratic Party. He has been able to sort of turn the mirror on Donald Trump, sort of mirror back to Donald Trump himself, he has been able to sort of speak about the substance of the issues that are affecting people's lives, and he has been able to do it in a way that sort of not only feels authentic and real, but that also speaks to his years of investing in these communities.

So, I mean, I think it was a good answer. I think it was very solid. You know, there's still this push and pull in both parties around funding for Israel. And so, I think he walked that line very tightly and did well.

COATES: How do you think about it, Tiffany?

TIFFANY SMILEY, FOUNDER, ENDEAVOR PAC: I mean, look, it's an uphill battle for Collins, I think. But on the side of it, Collins is a workhorse. He has fought hard. He fought hard for the Laken Riley Act, which I think is important to a lot of voters in that state. Certainly, an uphill battle and something to watch.

But I guess it goes back to what do Georgia voters want for the future and who's presenting it and laying it out, you know, in the most effective way. And I think they want to know who's going to go fight and work for us. And right now, the Democrats, really, their vision for the future and for America, there's really no leadership. There's no direct, you know, vision for what they will deliver for the American people. I think it's definitely a race to watch coming up.

COATES: Do you see a lack of vision among Democrats?

SAWYER HACKETT, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST, CONTENT CREATOR: I don't. I think Democrats are pretty squarely focused on the issue that voters care most about heading into this election, which is cost of living. I mean, in every single battleground state in the country, cost of living is the top issue by at least 10 points. That's true in Maine, that's true in Georgia, both states where the Democratic candidate has, like, a close to a double-digit point lead on the issue of cost of living. So, as long as those are kind of the political terrain that we're having this battleground on, I think Democrats are coming out ahead.

COATES: And, by the way, there's a new Gallup poll that found there has been a shift on which party Americans believe would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. Democrats are now holding a 14- point margin. And just three years ago, Republicans held that same advantage.

[23:09:55]

So, when you look at this and how the White House might view their decision, Jeff, to go to places that they were very prosperous, I'm talking about politically prosperous in just a few years ago, is this their version of reactive, desperation or strategic proactivity?

(LAUGHTER)

Yes, I phrased that for you. There you go.

JEFF MASON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, BLOOMBERG: Do I have to choose one of those two options?

COATES: Yes, you do. Yes.

MASON: I think the White House views it certainly as being proactive. I don't think it's the race or the travel schedule that they probably intended or expected to have in terms of going to some of these deep red states. I was speaking to a White House official earlier today, though, who said, don't necessarily read into the red state travel as being only related to specific races.

COATES: What else can we do?

MASON: I think that's a fair follow-up question, but the point that this White House official was making is that these are ways to get his message out in places that are important. But clearly, they're important because these races are tight, and they are tight because President Trump's popularity is low. The polls show that, and the polls' popularity and approval ratings for presidents absolutely manifest in midterm elections.

That's why, as President Trump has been saying repeatedly for the last few months, historically, the person who's in power or the party who's in power loses seats in a midterm election. He's trying to turn that wave the other way around. Right now, the polls do not suggest that he'll be successful.

ETIENNE: Can I offer another explanation as to why the president might be going to some of these red states? It is because Donald Trump has an ability to turn out low-propensity voters, not just on the right, but on the left as well, like no one else can.

So, what I think the strategy is, is you go into these states and you gin up the MAGA voters who think this guy walks on water, those low- propensity voters, and you get those folks ginned up and turned out because no sort of standard-bearer Republican today can turn those voters out.

Those are uniquely Trump voters. So, he's going to these places because he's going to lose some Republicans, he's going to lose a lot of Democrats, he's going to lose a lot of independents.

So, who do they need? They need those low-propensity Republican voters. He's got the ability to turn them out. That's what's making him an asset in these red states.

COATES: Is he galvanizing enough for people to -- I mean, let's talk about the red undertow, right? The idea that people are not honestly buying what Democrats are selling. They might not be thinking about them as the most viable opposition, and yet they don't want Trump in some of these areas. But does that mean they're going to stay home or does that mean they're going to possibly turn out? That's the big question that everyone is trying to answer.

HAJJAR: Yes. I think this is going to matter, especially in Texas, where, you know, the polling at least is behind James Talarico in that Senate race. And I spoke to a lot of voters, with Republican ones in particular, you hear a lot of, well, we're either going to hold our nose or we're staying home for Ken Paxton just because of the scandals that he has in his past. So, it makes a lot of sense that the president and, you know, a lot of Trump administration officials are going there and trying to gin up the base.

But, look, I think the other issue is that Republicans in these really tight races aren't just having to run in a difficult year, they're having to run against difficult policies. This is coming up across the board, especially in places like Maine and Michigan, where tariffs are substantially raising the cost in trade with their northern neighbor, Canada. So, Republicans, in a lot of ways in these very tight races, are having to run against their own party on those policies in particular.

SMILEY: But can I make a point about Maine with Susan Collins? Every time she's up, everyone says, oh, she's behind, oh, someone can beat her out, and she always pulls through every single time.

HAJJAR: That's true.

SMILEY: I know her. I've met her. She's very principled. She stands up for Maine. In just five years, she has brought back over a billion dollars to Maine. So, whether they disagree with her or not, they know who butters their bread, they know who's going to come back and deliver for Maine every single time. I just don't think that's fair to think that Democrats can flip that Senate seat.

And then in Texas, I look at Texas, and they haven't had a Democrat senator since 1988. I don't know that this is the year that they will get a Democrat senator. Texas loves President Trump. And he was -- he was --

ETIENNE: Wait a minute --

SMILEY: -- he was out there last week to gin up -- to gin up the early voting. He is aware that early voting is beginning soon. So, he was ahead of the game on that.

COATES: And, by the way, when you say early voting, we should all say, that also means mail-in voting sometimes. So, if you're for that -- I'm just going to put that out there. Your chance to make a big pick.

HACKETT: Which he is not.

HAJJAR: Well, now he is.

ETIENNE: Can I just step here in on Texas? I'm a Texan, and this is the first time in my lifetime I've seen both a Republican governor and a Republican president underwater in the state of Texas. You've got Gina Hinojosa, who has now been endorsed by all the major newspapers in the state of Texas. You've got James Talarico that's up five to six to eight points on Ken Paxton.

MASON: Is he that far up?

ETIENNE: Yes.

SMILEY: Can we really trust the polling in those areas when it's a very negative race for both of them?

HACKETT: Republicans are pulling millions of dollars out of races that Trump won by nine -- districts that Trump won by nine points to invest in districts that Trump won by 18 points. They already know the scale of this wave is taking place.

[23:15:00]

That's why he's campaigning in red states like Tennessee and Alabama and Alaska and why they're spending a quarter of a billion dollars in states like Texas and Iowa.

COATES: Follow the money. Everyone, stand by. We have some breaking news. The judge hearing the challenge to President Trump's White House press ban has just ruled against the president. The ruling means that for now, CNN, MS NOW, and Politico will keep their access to the White House while litigation plays out.

Joining me now is Conor Fitzpatrick, chief supervising attorney for the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression. Connor, you went through this file and you've had some time. What stands out to you?

CONOR FITZPATRICK, CHIEF SUPERVISING ATTORNEY, FOUNDATION FOR INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS AND EXPRESSION: Good evening. So, we got the opinion from the judge about 15 minutes ago, and looking through it very quickly, this seems like a comprehensive win for the media organizations. Judge Kelly ruled in favor of CNN, MS NOW, and Politico not just on the due process ground, which was the ground that he granted the TRO on, but also on the First Amendment ground, finding that President Trump's actions constituted unconstitutional viewpoint discrimination and unconstitutional retaliation.

COATES: And so, their arguments about national security being an overriding interest was not something that persuaded this judge?

FITZPATRICK: Did not persuade the judge in the slightest. In fact, close to the end of the opinion, the judge called out the administration, pointing out that they had not supplied any evidence, even ex parte, in camera evidence or confidential evidence that would support the national security justifications.

In fact, a really interesting development at the hearing last week on this matter is that the judge was perplexed about what to do when the president was on social media saying that this ban was all about unfavorable coverage he was getting, but the DOJ was in court saying that the ban was due to national security. He asked the DOJ attorney, what am I supposed to do when the president is telling me one thing but you're telling me another? I think this opinion is a very comprehensive one and it shows that the idea that this was about national security was never accurate.

COATES: What you say can and will be used against you in a court of law, Mr. President. But this is not the end of the matter. This is an injunctive stage right now. This means that the status quo is preserved, but there still can be arguments made with an eye towards litigation, trial, and otherwise.

FITZPATRICK: That's right. The administration has made clear in front of Judge Kelly that it believes that two of the major opinions that cut against it in this matter, the Karem case and the Sherrill v. Knight case that have been established for quite some time, that it believes those are wrongly decided and it believes those should be overturned.

So, I would expect that they would make those arguments to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, and I expect the administration to appeal this ruling rather quickly. But, to be clear, the ruling in favor of the media organizations on both the First Amendment and the Fifth Amendment grounds looked to be very solid.

COATES: The Fifth Amendment, the due process, it didn't have notice or an opportunity to be heard or something that was non-viewpoint or content-based to decide how and when to provide that access. Conor, thank you so much. We've got much more midterm coverage ahead on all the key races, including this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE JOHNSON, SPEAKER OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: It feels like 2024 to me. I'm telling you, the polling is not reflecting this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: Speaker Mike Johnson's new message, everything is fine, the polls are wrong. My next guest isn't so sure that's right. Former Republican Congressman Mo Brooks weighs in.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:20:00]

COATES: Republicans find themselves playing defense in places like Kansas, Texas, Iowa, and Nebraska. But today, Speaker Mike Johnson said everyone is wrong about that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHNSON: I'm telling you, something is happening right now. It feels like 2024 to me. I'm telling you, the polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what's really happening. They're undersampling Republicans. They're oversampling Democrats. How many of you have answered a political poll in the last six months? No, nobody. Don't buy the false narrative. The people of this country are not going to allow the communists and Marxists to take over our nation. It's not going to happen.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: Joining me now, former Republican congressman from Alabama, Mo Brooks. He's a former Trump ally who had a falling out with the president after he pulled his endorsement.

[23:25:02]

Congressman, you heard Speaker Mike Johnson. He thinks Republicans are going to do just fine and that the polls are completely wrong and undersampling and oversampling. Is that your assessment?

MO BROOKS, FORMER ALABAMA REPRESENTATIVE: Well, the polling data over the last five to 10 years has definitely gotten worse for both parties, more unreliable. By way of example, if you go to RealClearPolitics and Donald Trump's favorable and unfavorable ratios, you've got some polls that show him 12, 13 percent underwater and you've got others showing him 30-something percent underwater, and both of them will claim that there's only a three or four-point margin of error when you've got a 20-point gap. So, yeah, there are legitimate issues concerning polls, but polls are reflection of where the public may or may not be.

The underlying cause of the problem is, quite frankly, you've got a bad inflation rate that's getting worse, you've got gasoline and diesel prices that have gone up over 50 percent, you've got unemployment numbers that are not good and they're getting worse. So, the economy is not looking good for Republicans. Then you got the president --

COATES: So, then, does it help -- excuse me, does it help the president going out to these red states and saying -- pretend he's on the ballot? Does that help change any of those facts or help Republicans?

BROOKS: It's better than the president not going and campaigning around the country. If President Donald Trump did not campaign around the country, even if it is in red areas, then the argument would be that his job performance as president is as bad or even worse than what the polling data suggests.

COATES: But what about the fact that people assign and attribute some of the cause of these problems, inflation, high gas prices, some of the choices that he has made? Is his presence a reminder of that or is he doing an effective job trying to explain away his reasoning?

BROOKS: Well, getting back to the RealClearPolitics averages of the polls, where about 60 percent have an unfavorable view of the president's job performance and only 38 percent have a favorable view of the president's job performance, that suggests to me that the president has not been able to communicate to the public why he's doing a good job rather than the perception that he's doing a bad job. And so, when he goes out in the field, he's not changing the numbers. Hopefully -- you know, I'm a Republican. I hope Mike Johnson is right. I hope things will change. Certainly, we've had some huge influxes of cash recently to help our candidates at the congressional and senatorial and gubernatorial levels. Maybe over the next three weeks, that will improve the situation somewhat. But right now, it doesn't look good.

And, quite frankly, Laura, if you look at the history of it, Donald Trump, when he's not president, helps Republicans pretty strongly back in 2016 and 2024 when we captured the White House, the House, and the Senate. But when you've got President Donald Trump, we get slapped, we got beaten in the off-year elections in 2017, we got clobbered in the 2018 elections, the midterms, with Nancy Pelosi becoming speaker of the House. In 2020, we got beaten even worse with the Democrats capturing the House, the Senate, and the White House. Then you look at last year, an off-year election in a few states in 2025 and, again, the Republicans fared poorly while the Democrats did fairly well.

So, this is another year, the fifth election, where you've got President Donald Trump with a track record that for whatever reason has caused the Democrats to be willing to walk over hot polls to get to the polls to vote against him.

COATES: Well, we'll see if that indeed is the case. Congressman Mo Brooks, thank you. Still ahead, she's out. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigning over that alleged pay-to-play scandal as Trump makes a rare decision to ditch one of his loyalists. So, what's the story here? Why did he really do it? The panel is back on that, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:30:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATIE ZACHARIA, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: We have asked Ambassador Guilfoyle to resign. She has been a wonderful asset to the team, and we wish her well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: OK. And just like that, the Trump-Guilfoyle political marriage is officially over after Kimberly Guilfoyle's engagement with president's son, Don, and her stint as ambassador to Greece. She's officially out of Trump World. Her request for a donor to pay her a hundred grand dollar or $100,000 of Am Ex bill, along with other excesses, were apparently the last straw for President Trump.

Guilfoyle accepted her fate, and she did resign this morning. But she denied the claims and vowed to -- quote -- "defend my name, my reputation, and my integrity." But you know one person who was not standing by her? President Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNKNOWN: She was almost a member of your family. How surprised were you to learn about these allegations?

TRUMP: No, she wasn't a member of my family. She, I guess, dated my son a long time ago. But she wasn't. No. She went to Greece, she was doing a great job, but we didn't like what we were reading.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: My panel is back with me. Tiffany, why do you think this was, her actions here, why was it a bridge too far for this administration?

SMILEY: Well, I think it became very public, and President Trump lost public support of her, in a sense. I commend the president for taking an action, for standing up.

[23:34:57]

He lost trust in a public position, ambassador to Greece, that she should be serving at the pleasure of the president and this country. He lost trust in her, he took an action, and I think, you know, she accepted or she resigned shortly after the new press secretary broke the news. I think it's a good move by the president.

COATES: Why not make it more often? There has been a lot of allegations of corruption within his administration. This seems to be the straw. Why now?

HACKETT: She's expendable. I mean, she's outside of the family orbit now. She's no longer connected to the Trump family. She doesn't really matter to Donald Trump.

COATES: He dated my son at some point in time. It was an engagement, wasn't it?

HACKETT: A four-year engagement, I think, to Don Jr. I mean, I think, yes, it's as simple as that. It's a bad news story that he doesn't want to deal with. And so, he can fire her and keep her on a tether because now, she needs a pardon from Donald Trump to avoid jail time, I think.

ETIENNE: But also, Trump has a pattern of firing women and holding onto the men when there's corruption. You know, Kristi Noem is a good example of this particular administration. He did in the first one as well. Yes. He got a lot of coverage for that, right? Like, there's this double standard he holds women to. And so, I think that's part of the problem.

But here's the thing. It's also true -- this could be true, but it's probably not so true, is that, you know, Trump is reading the tea leaves. November is coming. Democrats are going to likely win the House. They're going to do some aggressive investigations.

You know, I was a part and ran the opposition for Speaker Pelosi during the first Trump term. Six cabinet secretaries we got rid of under scandal. So, there's likely going to be more and more people, I think, in this administration that are going to step down. They don't want the scrutiny. They don't want to be investigated. Cut your losses now. There's no reason to continue in these jobs.

You're going to have people like Pete Hegseth stay on, but I think you're going to see a lot of people leaving the administration because who wants to be a distraction and who wants illegal trouble?

COATES: Well, I am curious whether that will end any proposed inquiry. I mean, if they're not currently in office, there's a little bit of a congressional --

(CROSSTALK)

I see you there. And then polls, Jeff, consistently show that Trump has prioritized helping his friends over every day Americans. Will firing Guilfoyle repair that image or do you think the cake is baked?

MASON: Oh, I just don't even know if it's that big of a story.

COATES: Really?

MASON: I mean, I think it is a good story. I mean, it's certainly really excellent reporting by "The Wall Street Journal" that led to this but, you know, there are so many, so many stories around President Donald Trump.

When I say I don't know if it's a big one, I just don't know that voters are going to remember Kimberly Guilfoyle and this incident. I mean, if there's reason to keep it in the news, if she had decided to fight back, if there are legal -- additional legal action or if the State Department inquiry that started continues and maybe the results from that come out, that's going to give it more oxygen.

But I just -- I'm not convinced. I do think -- I'll just add one more thing. I do think if she had not resigned or if the White House had not asked her to resign, that the Democrats surely would have added that to the list of investigations. So, in some ways, that's crossed off the list. That's another way that the White House has probably effectively taken --

COATES: Do voters have the appetite? Are they looking for these investigations? Are they looking for discussions of impeachment, possibly? Are they looking for -- we keep hearing about the prioritization of affordability and all of the things that are impacting everyday lives. Are these conceptual issues that will attach to voters?

ETIENNE: No. I mean, if you look at the polling, what polls right underneath the economy is corruption, you know? And she's a prime example of the culture of corruption that has consumed this administration. So, she punctuates that point, that this is a corrupt administration that could care less, and I know we're going to get into these polls a little later, could care less and deprioritize the needs of the American people over their own financial fiduciary interests. And so, she continues to drive that point and puts another feather in the hat for Democrats in terms of messaging. So, yes, people do care about corruption. And interestingly enough, this is the first cycle where people are connecting corruption to their pocketbooks. Every issue that Donald Trump is underwater on, from tariffs to Iran, all connect back to the issue of the pocketbook, and people are also associating with corruption.

MASON: To be clear, I also want to make sure that I didn't give the impression that I don't think the polling shows that people do care about corruption. I'm just not sure that her case --

ETIENNE: Oh, yes, absolutely.

MASON: -- is going to rise to the top.

ETIENNE: Understood. It adds to the narrative.

HAJJAR: I mean, to both of your points, the fact that there's so much noise about this is a legal liability. And completely agree. I mean, measures of just how much voters are concerned about corruption are reaching all-time highs. That's bipartisan, by the way.

ETIENNE: Absolutely.

HAJJAR: There is wariness about corruption on both sides towards both parties, but certainly under this administration, it has gone up. I think that this is a sign that the president is taking notice. Also, obviously, wanting to field headaches going towards the midterms.

But it's not just overt allegations of corruption, right? It is these gray areas, jets, gift-set to son's weddings, crypto, etcetera, etcetera, where the guardrails aren't exactly clear right away, but people stop and think, why is the government even involved there?

[23:40:05]

COATES: That's my point, that they may look at -- if you're the administration, they'll use Guilfoyle, whether they think it's a priority or not among the American people, as exhibit A, as to why they don't engage in corruption, why they root it out immediately.

HACKETT: I don't think they're leaning into that necessarily because I think it just raises the issue of corruption even more, which, you know, to earlier points, I think it has already kind of seizing in the polls already. I think, ultimately, we're going to find out that this is a drop in an ocean of corruption.

I think that's why, you know, this election is so important, because I think once Democrats take back power in Congress, we have the ability to shine a light on a lot of this stuff, and we're going to see that it runs from Donald Trump and Jared Kushner all the way down to the White House interns.

COATES: Then, of course, the question will be, then what? What will Democrats do differently and what is the exact plan? Stand by, everyone. We'll be back to answer questions in just a few moments. Remember, you can text us, 818-972-7272. Just include your first name and city or state. But first, it's a Texas district that Trump won by 15 points, and yet Democrats think they've got a real shot at flipping it blue against a so-called gun influencer. We'll meet the candidate the Democrats are betting on, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:45:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COATES: All right, so Democrats are hoping the midterm blue wave crashes into one of the most reliably red parts of the country, South Texas. They're eyeing a district that Trump won by 15 points in 2024, and it has seen a lot of changes since then. I mean, first, the Republicans redrew the district along the Rio Grande just last year to give them an edge in the midterms.

But earlier this year, Congressman Tony Gonzales, representing the area, resigned after sexual misconduct allegations. Now, Democrats believe they may have a chance to flip it blue with their candidate, attorney and former teacher, Katy Padilla Stout. She faced off in a debate tonight against Republican nominee Brandon Herrera.

Katy Padilla Stout joins me now. Welcome, Katy. I'm curious. How are you convincing those voters who are dissatisfied with Trump and the Republican Party in that district to now vote for you? What's your message?

KATY PADILLA STOUT, TEXAS U.S. HOUSE CANDIDATE: Well, we are definitely welcoming them with open arms. You know, here in the 23rd district, Big Bend is a really big issue. And tonight, Brandon Herrera could not tell us why he still supports a smart wall in Big Bend, which would still require bulldozers, still require eminent domain. He was allowed to have a rebuttal and had no response.

COATES: Well, Texas -- another issue -- Republicans, they redrew the district as part of Trump's plan to help Republicans retain control of the House. Is that strategy backfiring on Republicans?

PADILLA STOUT: I think it's absolutely backfiring on Republicans. I think that we're seeing, all across the district, voters are concerned about affordability. Gas is too expensive. Groceries are too expensive. People are finding it hard to make ends meet while we are paying for a war that no one asked for.

COATES: Democrats are now pouring more money into your race, other Democrats running in red districts, but your opponent still holds a substantial cash advantage in your race. How will you overcome that deficit?

PADILLA STOUT: So, I don't think those numbers quite reflect the end of our third quarter. We have raised over a million dollars grassroots from people all over the country who are helping us. If they want to help us, they can join us @hereallysaidthat.com. We are more than prepared to, you know, get out there with our message and make sure that voters know they have a choice this November. COATES: Well, let's say the numbers don't reflect it. The fact that they are coming in quite late might reflect the opinion of your potential to win the district. Do you think that's the case?

PADILLA STOUT: Absolutely. We were definitely a surprised district. I think I surprised my own self by running. I just couldn't stand back any longer while we let these people who have no business in power trying to represent myself and my children.

We've taken a district that neither Democrats nor Republicans thought were going to change, and we're making both sides spend millions of dollars to come over here and make sure that these votes are earned and not given away.

COATES: Herrera has come under a lot of fire from some very incendiary and derogatory rhetoric towards women that he has used. Just listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRANDON HERRERA, TEXAS U.S. HOUSE CANDIDATE: As you'll notice, his noggin appears to already have arrived empty and is instead full of mush, much like the average Austin feminist.

So, when a blue-haired on the news says that a semi-automatic AR-15 is an assault rifle, she is both fat and wrong.

But what if, out of self-defense, you had to take down something a lot bigger, like an elephant or a killer whale or an angry blue-haired Austin feminist?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: I mean, when CNN reported on these comments just last month, Herrera described them, his words, jokes. But how are your voters in your district responding to these comments?

PADILLA STOUT: Well, he calls them jokes, but the truth is he has made millions of dollars promoting these videos online, on YouTube. He has been not only joking about veteran suicide, he has joked about children being murdered, he has said sexually explicit comments about children and, of course, he has made fun of rape in women's bodies. He also goose-stepped to Nazi marching music. This is not someone we need representing us and not someone we need anywhere near Washington.

COATES: We'll see if the voters agree, interpret similarly, and vote your way. Katy Padilla Stout, thank you so much.

PADILLA STOUT: Thank you. Have a great day.

COATES: Thank you.

[23:49:59]

We're getting a lot of questions out there, great ones from you at home. Please, keep them coming, 818-972-7272, because the panel is back with me to answer them right after a short break. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COATES: All right, you've got questions, and we have just the people to answer them. And don't forget, if you want to be involved, just text us at 818-972-7272. Give me your first name, your city or state. I like to know who I'm talking to.

Our panel is back with me. We've got a question from Colorado. This one is from Chris. And they ask, do you think Democrats are getting too overconfident? I just remember the whole Hillary thing and how disappointing it was. All right, Ashley, I hear you giggling. What's your answer?

ETIENNE: Possibly. I think there's a real possibility of that.

[23:54:57]

I mean, you know, as I mentioned earlier in the show, you know, I think Donald Trump is going to these red states to turn out low- propensity voters. Those voters don't show up in polls. So, there's a lot of voters that are not getting counted in polls, and we're over- hyped on polls.

We've also seen, for the last two cycles, the limitations of polls and the limitations of money. So, yeah, I think we could be getting overly confident. You always want to run from behind, and that's my advice to all of these candidates.

COATES: Good advice. Shonte from Texas asked, why do Republicans think childish talking points matter? Here in Texas, we are concerned about gas and diesel prices, data centers, corruption. We don't care about someone's sexuality, internet searches or their eating habits. You know what? Here is what, I think, she's talking about.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Before we get started, I love you, too, sir, in a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Talarico.

The best part about this guy is, you know, he was asked what he loves in life besides his own family and friends, and he responded without skipping a beat, and I quote, trans children. Now, you got to wonder what the internet search history of a man like that looks like.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: I mean, Tiffany, you've heard from Shonte. She's complaining about these talking points as opposed to the issues. What's your response?

SMILEY: Well, these are the Democrat talking points. The Texas race has become very negative. It's a very negative race. I think what the vice president is talking to is Talarico, who has twisted the Bible and made it woke. He's for trans kids. He wants to welcome them at the border. Those are the Democrat talking points in Texas. COATES: And the intimation about his sexuality they're addressing, not problematic?

SMILEY: He's talking about it in terms of Talarico and how Talarico is running his race.

HACKETT: He's insinuating that he's gay, which is -- is that true?

SMILEY: I have not checked in on Talarico's sexuality.

(LAUGHTER)

He's making a point that that is the race Talarico is running in a state like Texas, which is very red and, like I mentioned earlier, hasn't had a Democrat senator since 1998. So, if those are the terms that Talarico is running on and presenting with, I think it's going to be an uphill battle.

ETIENNE: I think both sides are overconfident in this moment. I think Republicans are underestimating the impact of the economy on voters. I mean, there's no way that they can spin their way out of this nor spin their way out of this dynamic and this mess that Donald Trump has put the party in. So, I think both sides are a little overly confident right now. We'll see. I think voters are going to surprise everybody.

SMILEY: This could be a layup for the Democrats. This is the moment where it should be very easy for them.

COATES: I think it's wrong for the vice president to insinuate Talarico and his sexuality without knowing anything and thinking that it's enough to convince voters. That's just my point.

James from Missouri asked this question. My question is, since the judge has denied Trump's ban for the political reporters' access, will they be allowed to travel on Air Force One?

OK, I'll take that. Actually, it's an open question about Air Force One. The court was talking about the injunctive relief as related to access to the Oval Office, to the White House, to the press briefing room. There is still an ongoing dispute about whether the president has access or limitations to people on the plane as well. We'll continue to follow that story and the rulings.

Let's go to L.A. Josh asked this question. What is the Democrats' closing message for the next two years other than "orange man, bad?" Sawyer?

HACKETT: Democrats' closing message is we're going to help lower those costs by putting a check on the bad orange man who jacked up everyone's prices by starting a global trade war and then starting a hot war with Iran that spiked everyone's gas prices.

COATES: Not bad orange man, "orange man, bad." That's what it says. There you go. Well, Kat from Kansas City asked, why is it that no one is really questioning the $5,000 bribe? Carine? HAJJAR: You know, there has been some pushback on this, including from some Republicans, but I do think there should be more from Republicans, particularly because they're running as the party that's the bulwark against socialism. This seems like pretty blatant socialism to me.

COATES: All right. Chad from California asked this question. I'd like to know what everyone's fourth question would have been in the briefing room today? Jeff, all you.

MASON: Oh, well there are fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh questions I would have been asked if she had gone beyond three organizations. Some questions probably about her background, certainly more about Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, follow-ups on multiple topics.

I did think it was interesting that she made news on the story we were talking about earlier, the ambassador. If she hadn't been asked that, would we have found that out today? That was also kind of an open question.

COATES: All right. Fourth, fifth, and sixth. Everyone, thank you so much. I'll be on Instagram live right after the show to take more questions. You can find me @thelauracoates. We're calling it our little sidebar for you. Remember, you can stream my show live or watch on-demand any time with an "All Access" subscription.

[00:00:00]

Scan that Q.R. code on your screen or go to cnn.com/watch to learn more. Thanks for watching. Here comes "The Story Is with Elex Michaelson" now.