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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Price Tag of War; Supreme Court Reviews Campaign Finance Reform
Aired September 08, 2003 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight: slave wages, an American disgrace. Beth Shulman, author of "The Betrayal of Work," on why 30 million Americans are undervalued and underpaid.
More violence in the Middle East. Can a new Palestinian prime minister bring peace? Former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller is my guest.
A rally on Wall Street, the Nasdaq tonight at its highest level in a year and a half. Christine Romans will have the market.
And we begin a weeklong series of special reports on the impact of September 11 on America. Peter Viles reports on "A Changed Nation."
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, September 8. Here now, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld today launched a blistering attack on the media and its reporting of the war on terror. Rumsfeld said criticism of U.S. policies in Iraq and Afghanistan only encourages enemies of the United States. Rumsfeld said terrorists have studied the media's role in earlier conflicts involving the United States.
Senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre has the report -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN MILITARY AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, Rumsfeld is wrapping up a four-day trip to Iraq and Afghanistan.
And he told reporters traveling with him back to Washington that criticism of the U.S. wars is making it more difficult for them to be fought. Rumsfeld's sharpest rebuke was of the Arab media. al- Jazeera, for instance, he said, is pounding the people of the region with things that are not true. He criticize what he had called the drumbeat for more U.S. troops in Iraq and said he'll keep repeating why it is important to build up Iraqi forces.
And he suggested that misguided criticism from the home front could give terrorists and their sympathizers false hope that the U.S. might throw in the towel. He didn't name anyone, but he suggested that the kind of talk coming from domestic critics could encourage terrorist groups to do more fund-raising and recruiting. But Rumsfeld was quick to add that he was not suggesting his critics remain silent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Obviously, it makes our task more difficult. That does not mean there should not be a debate on these things. There should be a debate and discussion on these things. We can live with that. We can live with a healthy debate, as long as it is as elevated as possible and as civil as possible.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: Now, Rumsfeld says terrorists have studied both Somalia and Lebanon, where, when the United States suffered significant casualties, it withdrew and its will to stay was broken. He insists, that will not be the case this time.
As for the criticism that he has somehow mishandled the reconstruction of rack, Rumsfeld rejects that. He says that he will continue to try to make the case of why the current policy and plan is a good one and that progress is actually better than many people believe. And he says, if it turns out that some of his critics are right about some things, he'll simply recalibrate -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jamie, a couple of quick questions. Did Secretary Rumsfeld point out the lessons of history there, that overwhelming force assures the greatest security for American troops as well?
MCINTYRE: Well, he's trying to make the point that it is far more important that they have Iraqis in control of security and that he insists that the United States does not need more of its troops there.
And he seems a little bit dumbfounded that that argument is not having more resonance, that people keep coming back with the insistence that the U.S. may need more troops there. He says he simply is going to keep repeating what he believes is the logic of that argument.
DOBBS: Jamie, turning to another issue, did Secretary Rumsfeld learn anything about weapons of mass destruction on his tour?
MCINTYRE: Well, very interestingly, he sort of pushed that off his agenda. He says it is an intelligence issue, that the survey group headed by David Kay that is searching for those weapons is reporting to CIA Director George Tenet, not to him.
And he said he's making a point, really, of not staying current on that issue. He did meet with David Kay. And he said he didn't even ask him whether they had made any progress finding weapons of mass destruction. He said he assumed, if David Kay had something to report, he would bring it up.
DOBBS: Aren't U.S. forces involved in the search for weapons of mass destruction, Jamie?
MCINTYRE: Only if they have intelligence that would require the U.S. military to move in. But, basically, it is the survey group, several thousand.
And they're looking more now for evidence of the weapons programs, rather than the weapons themselves, not ruling out that they might find actual weapons at some point in the future.
DOBBS: Jamie, thank you -- Jamie McIntyre reporting from the Pentagon, our senior Pentagon correspondent.
Terrorists wounded two U.S. soldiers in Iraq today. Those soldiers were traveling in a convoy of Humvees when a bomb went off in the center of Baghdad. None of the injuries is reported to be life- threatening.
U.S. troops in Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit today arrested four terrorist suspects. Military officials say three of them may have been involved in planning bomb attacks.
And Britain today said it will deploy another two infantry battalions to Iraq. That would mean about another 1,200 British soldiers. They will join more than 10,000 other British troops already in the Basra region.
Troops serving in Liberia are facing a different kind of enemy; 12 U.S. Marines supporting West African peacekeepers in Liberia have contracted malaria. Another 21 troops are showing signs of the disease. Two of the Marines are seriously ill. They are receiving treatment at a U.S. medical facility in Germany. The other 31 Marines are in Bethesda Naval Hospital in Maryland. The Pentagon claims all of the men did receive medicine designed to prevent malaria. However, it has no explanation for how this many Marines contracted the disease.
The White House today defended the president's request for another $87 billion to fight terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. The White House said the federal budget deficit next year will now be $525 billion with that extra spending authorized. There is little doubt the Congress will eventually approve the president's request. But some lawmakers say it is just an initial down payment on the cost of making Iraq and Afghanistan secure.
Jonathan Karl joins me now from Capitol Hill with the story -- Jonathan.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, in the wake of the president's speech last night, Democrats have actually stepped up their criticism of the president and his handling of postwar Iraq.
But no single prominent Democrat has come forward to say that they would oppose spending the $87 billion the president wants to spend in Iraq and Afghanistan. At a forum for Democratic presidential candidates in Washington here today, John Kerry came out, had some criticism for the president, said his speech was totally inadequate.
But when asked about the $87 billion, Senator Kerry had this to say. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to do whatever is needed to protect our troops and whatever is needed to be successful. I want to be successful there. We have to be. But I want to have a further explanation of questions that are unanswered. And I would like to see a much greater involvement of the United Nations. I think that the speech was completely inadequate in that regard and leaves the American people really questioning where we're going.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: And even Howard Dean, who has been the president's most vocal critic on Iraq, would not say what he would do about the $87 billion, simply avoided the question, saying he's not running for Congress.
Meanwhile, Republicans are saying the president gave a solid speech. They will support him on his effort to get the money he needs in Iraq. But one prominent member of the Republican leadership here in the Senate said that she believes that the money must eventually be repaid by other nations or from Iraq's oil revenues.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON (R), TEXAS: I do think, in this case, that we would expect others to step up to the plate. I think other countries have a stake here. I think they are interested. Many of them are helping already. We can't do this halfway. We have got to do it right. We will put the money up. But we must also look to be repaid for most of it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: Although Democrats can be expected to support the money, they will try to attack strings to the money, will have some help from Republicans on that. Senator Ted Kennedy is preparing an amendment to this budget request already, even though it hasn't formally been offered yet.
Senator Kennedy would require the president to have a specific outline of how the money will be spent, his plan for postwar reconstruction, and also a timetable, a long-term timetable, for the withdrawal of U.S. troops -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jonathan, the $87 billion, any indication there on Capitol Hill in the meetings between White House staff and congressional staff as to whether or not there is any set percentage of that money that will be repaid by Iraqi oil exports?
KARL: Nothing yet. This is part of the discussions. They've had nothing specific on that. Right now, what is being asked is $87 billion to be spent from the U.S. Treasury, no indication about how much, if any, will be repaid by oil revenue.
DOBBS: Jonathan Karl reporting from Capitol Hill -- thank you, Jon.
The $87 billion price tag for Iraq and Afghanistan is a huge amount of money, but it is a relatively small amount when compared with the potential costs of a major terrorist attack on this country.
The Brookings Institution, for example, estimates, a biological attack on a major urban area could cost the economy $750 billion, in addition to the horrific loss of life. But the $87 billion is nonetheless significant. It is more, for example, than the budgets of most Cabinet agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture and Education, which spends $73 billion and $60 billion respectively.
The $87 billion is, however, less than the $99 billion write-down announced by AOL Time Warner last year and not much bigger than the $67 billion in shareholder value that was destroyed by Enron's scandal and bankruptcy.
The White House today gave a very rough breakdown of how that total of $87 billion will be spent, more than 80 percent to go for military operations and reconstruction in Iraq. Most of the rest is earmarked for Afghanistan.
Jan Hopkins reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAN HOPKINS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Three quarters of the $87 billion -- that's $66 billion -- would go pay for additional costs of fighting terrorism around the world. That $66 billion would be broken down this way: $51 billion for ongoing military operations in Iraq, including $300 million for body armor, $140 million for more Humvees.
Plus, troops in Iraq for more than a year would get two weeks of rest and relaxation; $11 billion would go for U.S. troops in Afghanistan, $4 billion for other parts of the world. After the $66 billion that goes for the military, the rest of the money, about $21 billion, would help in the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan; $5 billion would go to improve security in Iraq and $15 billion to build and repair clinics, make drinking water safe, open ports, restore electricity and oil production.
Not much is working in Iraq. The electricity is sporadic and much of the water is unsafe. But some Iraqi experts point out that not much worked before the war either.
DAVID L. PHILLIPS, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: The utility grid was already seriously degraded before the war. It was worsened by the looting and the sabotage. The intermittent electricity that the Iraqis experience today is no worse than it was prior to military conflict.
HOPKINS: So far, the U.S. has spent about $12 billion on reconstruction in Iraq. Some believe the cost of rehabilitating Iraq will be spread over five years. MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: It looks like the total price tag will be at least $300 billion, when all is said and done. We're looking at costs for 2003 through just this month that will total about $60 billion in Iraq, costs next year that should total about $70 billion. So we're already halfway to the $300 billion total just in the first two years.
HOPKINS: Initially, it was thought that the money to rebuild Iraq would come from selling Iraqi oil. That has not worked out. Now the costs of rebuilding Iraq are being turned over to the U.S. taxpayer.
The president also wants to spend more to rebuild Afghanistan. Nearly $2 billion has already been spent there on roads, bridges and schools. The president wants to spend $1 billion more this year.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOPKINS: Putting it in perspective, the $87 billion budget for Iraq and Afghanistan is close to New York state's budget for this year. Last year, Iraq and Afghanistan's entire economies produced $77 billion, $10 billion less than the U.S. proposes to spend there in one year -- Lou.
DOBBS: And it is starting to look like Lawrence Lindsey, the former economic advise, had the number right, about $200 billion, before he left the White House.
HOPKINS: That's right -- or more.
DOBBS: Jan, thank you -- Jan Hopkins.
Well, the man nominated to be the new Palestinian prime minister today said he will accept the job if the United States and Europe offer their guarantees of support. Ahmed Qureia said he wants Israel to loosen its military control of the West Bank and Gaza. Yasser Arafat nominated Qureia as prime minister after the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas this weekend.
Later, I'll be talking with former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller about the implications of the Abbas resignation for Middle East peace. Miller is president of Seeds of Peace, a 30-year negotiator in the Middle East.
Also ahead tonight: The Supreme Court returns from recess early to take up a critical issue that could have a direct impact on the presidential election next year. Patty Davis will have the report on this unusual special session of the U.S. Supreme Court from Washington.
And the American way of life forever altered by the events of September 11. Peter Viles begins our series of special reports this week on "A Changed Nation."
And one man who says Americans are too concerned about terrorism. Michael Kinsley is the editor of "Slate" magazine. He joins us. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Indiana Governor Frank O'Bannon tonight is in a Chicago hospital after he suffered a stroke. O'Bannon was found unconscious in a Chicago hotel room this morning. The governor underwent four hours of surgery for a cerebral hemorrhage. Doctors have not yet provided a prognosis. The 73-year-old governor was in Chicago for a business conference. He was given a clean bill of health at a physical only three months ago.
The Supreme Court today returned from its summer recess a month early for what could be its most important case in decades. The justices heard arguments for and against the controversial campaign finance reform law passed by Congress last year. It could change the way political donations are made. It could change the nature of American politics.
Patty Davis reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATTY DAVIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): With hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign money at stake, a special urgency by the Supreme Court to resolve the case quickly, before the coming federal elections; at issue, a sweeping new law that bans unregulated unlimited contributions to political parties known as soft money.
Inside the court, the justices struggled with whether the law is needed to stem corruption or whether it tramples free speech rights. Justice Antonin Scalia predicted abuses and questioned whether incumbent lawmakers were only worried about protecting their political careers.
JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA, U.S. SUPREME COURT: Why do you pick on the party as this instrument for making public views, even the public views of the wealthy, known and allow contributions to these other groups?
THEODORE OLSON, SOLICITOR-GENERAL: Congress didn't pick on the party, Justice Scalia. The parties are given considerable privileges, the power to put candidates on the ballot. There is reasons that the exercise of this enormous power can be subject to greater restrictions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)
NARRATOR: Al Gore created the Clean Water Action Plan to clean up polluted...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DAVIS: The other controversial provision, a ban on issue- advocacy ads that some call attack ads paid for by labor unions and corporations shortly before an election. First Amendment attorney Floyd Abrams argued, that amounts to a content-base restriction on speech. But at least one justice offered some support for the ban.
Justice Sandra Day O'Connor: "Are you saying no effective regulation of electioneering is possible?"
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DAVIS: Opponents say that law is simply overly broad. Now, a decision by the justices is expected, Lou, by the end of the year, before the primary season gets under way -- back to you.
DOBBS: And, Patty, how could this case affect the presidential election itself?
DAVIS: Well, certainly, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of soft money at stake. If they strike this down, allow that ban on soft money to go away, you're going to see a lot of this corporate, this union money coming back in, unrestricted. Right now, it is restricted. They're not allowed to contribute this money as soft money, as they used to be able to do, $500 million, in fact, in the 2000 election cycle, so a lot of money at stake here that could help candidates in the presidential election -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Patty Davis, reporting from Washington.
Record companies today followed through on their promise to sue anyone who illegally downloads and shares music over the Internet. The Recording Industry Association of America filed 261 lawsuits all around the country, says the individuals sued have, on average, a collection of 1,000 copyrighted songs each. The industry also announced an amnesty program for online song-swappers who promise to delete their downloaded files.
Coming up next here: two years later, how the attacks of September 11 have changed the American way of life. Peter Viles begins our series of special reports tonight.
And are Americans focused too closely on the threat of terror? Michael Kinsley, the founding editor of "Slate" magazine, says yes. He is our guest.
And millions of Americans living on slave wages, why a hard day's work is not enough for many working-class Americans. Beth Shulman, author of "The Betrayal of Work," is our guest.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Coming up: Have you ever been polled, yes or no? That's our poll question tonight. And chances are that you have. But the results may not always tell the whole truth, in some cases, not even part of the truth. Bill Tucker has our special report on the art of the unscientific poll, the polls we all pay so much attention to.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, we begin a series of special reports this week, "A Changed Nation."
The terrorist attacks on the United States two years ago this week shocked the country and the world. Those attacks also changed the way we look at and deal with the world around us.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (singing): God bless America.
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Life changes in little ways. An old patriotic song makes a comeback at baseball parks. At a football game, extra security measures. We budget more time when we go to the airport.
Life changes in big ways, too, front page news, the threat of terrorism, the cost of war.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: For America, there will be no going back to the era before September the 11th, 2001, to false comfort in a dangerous world.
VILES: The end of false comfort means anxiety. Polling shows fears of terrorist attacks are still with us, although fading.
In the weeks just after September 11, nearly 30 percent of Americans told the Pew Research Center they were -- quote -- "very worried" about an imminent terrorist attack. In late August, the percentage was 13 percent. In places like Danbury, Connecticut, a prosperous city with a low crime rate, police officers use their imagination in a new way: How might a terrorist attack our city?
ARTHUR SULLO, DANBURY POLICE DEPARTMENT: We have taken extra security in the city, watching our watersheds in the cities, our electric power areas, the large traffic generators, such as the Danbury Fair Mall, which is one of the largest malls in New England.
VILES: Americans are more likely to fly the flag, more likely to feel patriotic. Prior to the attacks, 55 percent of Americans described themselves as extremely proud to be an American. That number grew to 65 percent after the attacks and to 70 percent this summer. In small ways, Americans pitch in where they might not have before.
KRISTIN VAN OGTROP, EDITOR, "REAL SIMPLE": During the blackout, I was making my way home. And I was startled by the number of everyday people who were in intersections directing traffic. And I looked at that and I thought, I bet that would not have been the case before 9/11.
VILES: Respect has grown for those in uniform, whether in the military or public safety. Firefighters ranked first, ahead of even nurses, in one poll of ethical standards and honesty.
ANDREW KOHUT, DIRECTOR, THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER: There was a certainly a pat on the back for people who are in harm's way. But there is also, I think, a continuing appreciation of those -- those in our society who protect us, from the military to the police to the fire departments. And that will continue to linger, as the American public continues to feel concerned about the threat of terrorism.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: It is important to note that these security anxieties are not unprecedented. For example, fears of a nuclear war, yes, are higher today than they were a decade ago, but they are still well below the levels reached in the mid-'80s at the end of the Cold War -- Lou.
DOBBS: And that change, in terms of the anxiety, at least it is abating somewhat.
VILES: Yes.
DOBBS: And that's a terrific sign of some success.
VILES: It's still much higher than it was prior to the event, but declining slowly. It did spike in February of this year, when there were a number of warnings from the government. So people are listening to their government on this, but, in general, a little less anxiety than there was a couple of years ago.
DOBBS: And, obviously, in the run-up to war against Saddam Hussein.
VILES: Yes.
DOBBS: Peter Viles, thank you.
My next guest says the people of this country worry too much about terrorism and says, since we can't possibly know the real risk to our lives from terrorists, we should focus more on the risks we do know about.
Michael Kinsley is a columnist, the founding editor of "Slate" and the former co-host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE," and joins us tonight from Seattle, Washington.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Michael, good to have you with us.
MICHAEL KINSLEY, FOUNDING EDITOR, "SLATE": Thanks.
DOBBS: The idea that we should not be worrying about terrorism I think has to strike as something of a thunderbolt to many people. Why should we not be very concerned about it? Why should not our concern about terrorism influence our lives?
KINSLEY: Well, of course we should be concerned about it.
But people in general, and Americans in particular, are not very good at assessing small risks of large disasters, compared to the ordinary risks of everyday life. If you were to stop and think every time you take a plane, you probably spend an extra couple hours standing in line, feeling tense, drinking coffee, eating junk food, and you've possibly reduced the risk of a terrorist episode, vs., if you spent those couple hours getting some extra sleep, which one would be more likely to increase your life expectancy?
But that's the kind of rational thinking which is very hard to do. And everything in our culture points the other way. You and I, the press, are responsible for drumming up -- it wouldn't be very interesting if CNN was running a series this week about an unchanged nation. And the government, of course, has its own bureaucratic imperatives to say something is a crisis and to keep it going.
And politicians and lawyers also benefit from being able to have occasions for lawsuits. You can't sue anyone about the ordinary risks of life.
DOBBS: I think, Michael, my first instinct is to reject the thought as to what you proffered in your article in "TIME" magazine. The second is that there is a resonance of truth and that there is too much, perhaps, an element at least of -- frankly, the word is phoniness about it, because the risks are not shared.
Our military, 1.4 million young men and women, for the most part, carry the burden, our firefighters, our police officers, our doctors and nurses. So there is that resonance. But, at the same time, you wouldn't expect in any way that this nation not be changed.
KINSLEY: Well, certainly, we're changed a little bit.
I don't think, in terms of the day-to-day life of people who aren't firefighters and who aren't the soldiers on the front lines, it's all that different, except at airports. And I think that is one of the problems. It sounds to me like you think that, too, that the Bush administration says: "We're going to give you a tax cut to help you do your bit. That's your bit in fighting terrorism."
And people haven't -- aren't paying for the additional protection they're getting, in fact. We're borrowing that money. And I don't -- I think it is very easy to think we're in a crisis. You can go about your daily life and not have to pay any cost for it, and have that sort of excitement anyway.
DOBBS: The effect on our lives, I know, initially you were unconcerned about racial profiling at airports as security was tightened significantly around the nation. What is your thinking now two years later almost? KINSLEY: Well, I wrote a piece that I got a bit of trouble for saying that in a short-term emergency, it was asking too much of people not to make generalizations from the way people look as they're boarding an airplane. And that's human nature and also in a time of emergency, it's almost unavoidable. That time of emergency, I think, has definitely passed. And I don't think that should go on.
DOBBS: Michael, you got in trouble. I know there is some reflex in it and I also know you well enough to know it is an intellectual process to that you followed to get to where you are. At the same time, is it not as you suggest entirely rational way in which to live our lives knowing that the incipient roots of the threat?
KINSLEY: You're saying the racial profiling?
DOBBS: Yes.
KINSLEY: I think if you have time and it's not an emergency and it's not happen investigate quickly, there are many ways to get -- make more rational decision about who might be a terrorist than generalizing from the way people look. For any number of reasons, the vast majority of which...
DOBBS: Oh, no, no, no. I wasn't suggesting, Michael...
KINSLEY: The vast majority of people who look like that aren't even Arabs. The -- it's just not a rational -- it's not even a sensible way to go about it.
DOBBS: Well, we thank you for being here. And I wish that we had the luxury, as I know you do, of not even having to think about it. But not having that luxury, as we have noted, and will continue to note throughout this week on our special reports on "A Changed Nation," we are indeed a changed people. Michael Kinsley, thank you very much for being with us.
KINSLEY: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Tomorrow, we continue our series of special reports on "A Changed Nation." We take a look at the travel, the way that we travel the country and the world, the way our travel habits have changed since September 11 and the impact that date has had on our country.
Tonight's quote is on the work that still must be done to honor those killed on the 11th of September. "Our final tribute to the dead of September 11 must be to fulfill our responsibility to defend the living, to finish the work. Our greatest memorial to those who have passed must be to protect the lives and liberties who are yet to come. So let us be clear and let us be resolved -- we will finish the work begun on September 11." U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft.
Coming up next, Americans are polled on everything from sports to politics. Can the results of those surveys be trusted? Bill Tucker will report on why not, perhaps.
And an unexpected turn in the road map to Middle East peace, a shocking resignation, a new name -- a new man steps forward. Aaron David Miller is a former Middle East peace negotiator. He joins us to tell us the problems with the road map and what must be done to reach peace.
And working for a living -- why millions of our hard-working fellow Americans struggle to make ends meet. Beth Schulman is the author of "The Betrayal of Work." She'll be our guest.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: NASA plans to put the next space shuttle in space by March. But NASA said safety, not scheduling, will dictate the exact date. The space shuttle program has been grounded since the Columbia disaster in February. NASA today promised to redesign the shuttle to make it safer. Officials also promised to improve the agency's culture to prevent future disaster.
We have become a nation obsessed, it seems at times, by polls. From politics to health to television programs, someone somewhere wants to know what we think, how we feel. We include ourselves in that impulse.
But as Bill Tucker reports, polling results can be manipulated to say just about anything.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Should America send more troops...
BILL TUCKER, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Polls are everywhere -- in the paper, on TV, on this network. By the end of the year, CNN will have conducted on average about a poll a week. And that's not counting the polls that many shows on CNN run asking viewers to call in and vote on a question. And viewers do call in, encouraging more polls.
BRITT BEEMER, AMERICA'S RESEARCH GROUP: Polling is a way to get a snapshot of America at a particular time. And, you know, this society has always been so driven by the population as a whole because we are a government of people and not a government of one person or few people.
TUCKER: It's not the map that's the problem. Reputable surveys from a sampling of 1,000 people which gives them an error rate of plus or minus slightly more than 3 percent. Why a thousand? Because if you increase the sampling size to 2,3, even 100,000, the error rate improves by only about a percent and costs skyrocket.
Critics of political polling fault the pollsters for asking simple questions with one goal in mind.
KEELYANNE CONWAY, PRESIDENT, THE POLLING COMPANY: If you need to break news in the next hour, if you have conclusions and search of evidence meaning tomorrow's newspaper headlines are already written, you know, "Bush Down in the Approval Ratings;" "Schwarzenegger Tongue- Tied," then you need some evidence to support those conclusions. And the quickest way do that is to have very to the point, almost leading questions. And I fear that's what is going on today.
TUCKER: Those critics argue that polls on the Internet or on TV urging people to call in and vote should not be called polls. They should be called fun.
KARLYN BOWMAN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: Polling is here to stay. It -- in part because it is a useful tool in a democracy that's important to know what people are thinking. But we should have some reservations about polls used.
TUCKER: Complicating the process for pollsters in raising the costs is the response rate (ph). Pollsters say that getting a phone call from a pollster is not nearly as unique as it once was. It now takes about 2,000 connected phone calls to get 1,000 opinions -- Lou.
DOBBS: So basically the pollsters are admitting themselves that it's A, difficult to get a proper sample for polling, and, two, the results themselves could be, let's say, somewhat dubious.
TUCKER: Yes, indeed. Instead of calling you and asking you about the four things you're most angry about, they give you a list of four things, limiting your choices and limiting the poll.
DOBBS: And as our news organization is involved in polling and as this broadcast is involved in polling, we want to be absolutely clear, we're going to continue to poll and we will have a little fun with it.
TUCKER: Absolutely.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Bill Tucker.
Speaking of polls, we want to hear from you on the topic of tonight's poll question. "Have you ever participated in a poll, besides this one of course? Yes or no" Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later in the show.
Coming up next, a stunning development on the road to Middle East peace. But will a change in leadership bring an end to deadly violence? Aaron David Miller is a former Mid East peace negotiator, the president of Seeds of Peace. He joins us next to discuss that issue.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is the latest setback for the road map for peace. My guest tonight says the road map is unrealistic and not implementable. Aaron David Miller, former Middle East peace negotiator, and president of Seeds of Peace, joins us. Good to have you with us. AARON DAVID MILLER, FMR. MIDEAST NEGOTIATOR: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: The suggestion that the road map can't be implemented, what did do you mean when you say that?
MILLER: What I mean it can be implemented but it is not self- implementing. That is to say Palestinians have a set of responsibilities, Israelis have a set of responsibilities. The gap with respect to suspicions, trust, is so profound that neither side will be able to take the kind of steps that are required. What the road map requires is a third party that has the confidence and trust of both sides and is prepared to do serious and intensive diplomacy.
The third party is not the United States?
The third party is the United States working closely with the Arabs and Europeans. I don't think we can do it alone. The reality is if left this to their own devices, it is clear. What occurred in June, the president made a bold move. He showed up in Aqaba, gave a terrific speech, appointed a monitor. But the problem is there is nothing to monitor. What needs to be done is the road map needs to be negotiated with Israelis and Palestinians being very clearly aware of what each side's requirements are and with timetables and benchmarks and performance standards.
DOBBS: I guess if there is a more frustrating story for any region in the world, I can't imagine it ending more difficult issue for negotiators. But, my god, we have 50 years, a half century experience. The idea that both sides don't know what the other requires, the fact that the third party in this case, the United States, does not know what is needed, it seems almost impossible and inconceivable.
MILLER: Lou, I'll tell you, we have a profound and severe crisis. And that's against the backdrop of 30 years of American efforts to help Arabs and Israelis sort out their difficulties. We made the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty ultimate. We played a key role in brokering the terms of the Madrid peace conference. When two parties do not trust one another, particularly when it is played out against the backdrop of terror and violence, in this kind of environment, a third party is critical. I'm not suggesting that the Palestinians and Israelis don't know what it is they have to do. They know only too well.
DOBBS: What should the United States do right now to end the idiocy, the madness of what has become a holy land hell?
MILLER: We're getting involved in this problem a little late, frankly. We have a situation where there are no controls, no rules. Each side is contemplating, Hamas, a terrorist organization is contemplating revenge for what the Israeli's have been doing and Israelis are prepared to preempt at every occasion. I guess, and I'm not trying to offer unsolicited advice, the fact is the administration needs to make this issue a top priority. Very forceful, willful president that made Iraq and its reconstruction a top priority. Great power is not only need effective counterterrorism policies, they need policies of sustained conflict management and conflict resolution.
DOBBS: And economic development in the entire region, which give at least the Palestinians something to lose for first time in a half century.
MILLER: Right. Parties have tough decisions to take. But only the U.S. can orchestrate the sequence of those decisions.
DOBBS: Aaron David Miller, we thank you for being with us.
MILLER: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Coming up next, millions of Americans putting in an honest's day work, hard work, for disgracefully low pay. Beth Shulman is the author of "The Betrayal of Work." How low way jobs fail 30 million Americans. She joins us next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Thirty million of our fellow citizens are in less than $18,000 a year. The official poverty level for a family of four. In her book "The Betrayal of Work", Beth Shulman says the number of people working in low-end jobs will amount to 30 percent of the entire American workforce by the end of this decade.
And we are joined now by Beth Shulman and we thank you for being with us.
BETH SHULMAN, AUTHOR: It is a pleasure to be here.
DOBBS: Beth, the number is startling, 30 million people. The first reaction on the part of most people has to be, but you're talking about young kids working in a McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King. You're talking about retired people doing part time work at a local retail store. But that's not the case, is it?
SHULMAN: No. The reality is that low wage jobs are the mainstream of our society. They're janitors, hotel workers, they're child care workers, they're nursing home workers, they're home health care workers, they're educational assistants, they're security guards. Low wage jobs are the mainstream of our economy. Who is in these jobs are mostly adults with family responsibilities, just like the rest of us.
DOBBS: And the bottom line is it is all about supply and demand. More people willing to work for these low wages than there are jobs or prices would rise, right?
SHULMAN: You know, America honors work, yet we're failing to reward it for the over 30 million Americans. And we're making choices and have been making choices that affect these workers. This isn't about the market working, this is about the market failing. It is about the market failing 30 million Americans. It is not only providing low wages in this job, it is provide nothing health benefits, no pension benefits, workers in low wage jobs work under the most hazardous conditions. And they get the least time off being with their families. This is a market failing to produce a middle class America that can purchase the goods that we have in our society. So, this is a market failing and these are choices Americans are making and we can make better choices that it reward all working Americans.
DOBBS: What is the solution?
SHULMAN: There is a lot of solutions. There is the solutions out there already going on in a variety of places around the country. There is livable wage ordinances there is states already providing health insurance to workers, or 200 percent of poverty. We need to raise the minimum wage. The minimum wage is $2 less in value than it was in 1968. Today it is $5.15 an hour that is less than $10,000 a year.
DOBBS: Beth, I don't think there is anyone listening tie word you've said that does not want anyone of those 30 million Americans to be making more money, and to have health benefits. But the health benefits, as you know, is a huge issue for a lot of Americans, well beyond the 30 million in these low wage paying jobs. But the fact is this is a country that doesn't want to secure its borders, does not apparently want to make certain that immigration, illegal immigration is stopped so there would be a greater constraint on the number of people looking for work, which would raise wages. Is that part of the solution in your judgment?
SHULMAN: The reality is that the solution is to make choices -- this is the mainstream of society. This isn't about illegal immigrants. This isn't about high school dropouts. This is about adults working hard every day and every night and the solutions are to ensure that those working Americans have the basics of a decent life.
This is the richest country in the world. We need to ensure that workers have the basics.
SHULMAN: And I think that -- I would first say that in your work, we honor those who work hard in this country. And the payoff for hard work is supposed to be prosperity and a better life. When that doesn't happen, we have to address it.
DOBBS: We thank you for doing so in your book. We thank you for being here to share your thoughts and for being with us.
SHULMAN: It is a pleasure being here. Thank you.
DOBBS: Tonight's thought is on the value of work. "Far and way the best prize life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing." That from the 26th president of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt.
When we continue, we'll have the results of tonight's poll.
Also, a milestone for the Nasdaq. Christine Romans will have the market for us.
And fat cats and dogs, too. Pats -- pets who are living got life. Too good a life. That story and a great deal more. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Not a lot of people went to the movie over the weekend, apparently. In fact, overall ticket sales hit a downright slump, what the industry calls a seasonal slide. David Spade's new comedy became the lowest grossing No. 1 since the year 2000. "Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star" is the title of the blockbuster. It took in $6.5 million in the first weekend. "Jeepers Creepers 2" fell to second. "Pirates of the Caribbean" was third followed by "Freaky Friday." And I've seen three out of the top five. I'm feeling pretty good.
Now the results of tonight's poll, which, of course -- the results are scientific, of course, without any question. "Have you ever participated in a poll besides this one?" Eighty-two percent of you replied yes, 18 percent of said no. The results are there for your edification and we hope some, at least, amusement.
A more scientific survey shows gasoline prices have fallen for a second straight week. The Energy Department says a gallon of regular unleaded fell 2.9 cents. It's still at $1.72, however. And the department says prices likely will hover above $1.50 a gallon through the fall. Good news, but there is , of course, even a limit to good news.
Turning to stocks now, the Nasdaq today rose to its highest close in a year and a half. The Dow also higher, up 83 points, while the Nasdaq gained 30. The S&P up 10.
Christine Romans is here with the market. A pretty good market, Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT: It really was. Cyclicals, semiconductors, drug stocks powering the Nasdaq, Lou, to the highest since March 2002. The S&P at the highest since June of last year. And the Dow is a few points below a new high for this move.
Now we're into September. Stocks remaining strong. The S&P is up 17 percent this year. The Dow up 15 percent. The Nasdaq up 41 percent. The Standard and Poor's Investment Committee believes the mark has nearly wrapped up year one of a new bull market that began October last year. Sam Stovall at S&P expects the index up 23 percent for 2003.
He's got the numbers to back up that forecast, Lou. Since 1949, the average bull market has posted a first year gain of 36 percent. And recovered 88 percent of the bear market decline. The second year it gains another 13 percent. How has this rally stacked up? The S&P 500 up 31 percent since last October and has recovered about a third of its total bear market decline.
Also, much has been made, Lou, of September's bad reputation for the bulls on Wall Street. But some things to consider here: a pre- election year tends to be good for stocks and September tends to be a good month in the first year of a bull market if that's what this is -- Lou
DOBBS: And history is always an accurate indicator of future performance, correct?
ROMANS: No.
DOBBS: Christine, thanks. Christine Romans.
Now for a look at your thoughts. Many of you wrote in about the president's address on Iraq.
John Garan Jr. of Haddon Heights, New Jersey writes, "It looks like Larry Lindsey's $200 billion cost assessment for the Iraq war was right on the money. Too bad he was told to resign."
Tim Sergesketter of Evansville, Indiana: "George Bush said he was a uniter and not a divider when he was running for president in 2000. He was correct. He's united the world against the U.S."
Darlene Kurtz, "Last week I heard people saying Bush should ask for help. Did hey forget he did and was denied help following U.N. resolution 1441 so he faced it almost alone and has accomplished quite a bit in Iraq, something others failed to do."
And Jonathan Service of Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania wrote in with his take on the loss of jobs, "Joe Smith started the day early, having set his alarm clock (MADE IN JAPAN), for 6:00 a.m., while his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA), was perking. He put on a dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA) after setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN). He got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY) and continued his search for a good-paying American job. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day, Joe decided to relax for awhile. He poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE), turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA), and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in America."
We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts. Loudobbs@cnn.com.
And finally tonight, pudgy pets. It's not just Americans are overweight, but a quarter of all pets in the Western world are now obese. Scientists blame their owners for giving them too much food, and they say all of that extra weight puts the fat cats and dumpy dogs at risk for major health problems. Their advice -- give those pets less to eat or low calorie food. This survey and these conclusions and advice cost hundreds of thousands of dollars and worth every penny of it. By the way, make sure your pets drink plenty of water.
That's our show for tonight. Thanks for being with us. Tomorrow, our series of special reports on "A Changed Nation," a look at September 11's impact on America. A report in cooperation with "The Economist" magazine as well, "Islam and Democracy."
For all of us here, good night from New York.
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Aired September 8, 2003 - 18:00 ET
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LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight: slave wages, an American disgrace. Beth Shulman, author of "The Betrayal of Work," on why 30 million Americans are undervalued and underpaid.
More violence in the Middle East. Can a new Palestinian prime minister bring peace? Former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller is my guest.
A rally on Wall Street, the Nasdaq tonight at its highest level in a year and a half. Christine Romans will have the market.
And we begin a weeklong series of special reports on the impact of September 11 on America. Peter Viles reports on "A Changed Nation."
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, September 8. Here now, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld today launched a blistering attack on the media and its reporting of the war on terror. Rumsfeld said criticism of U.S. policies in Iraq and Afghanistan only encourages enemies of the United States. Rumsfeld said terrorists have studied the media's role in earlier conflicts involving the United States.
Senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre has the report -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN MILITARY AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, Rumsfeld is wrapping up a four-day trip to Iraq and Afghanistan.
And he told reporters traveling with him back to Washington that criticism of the U.S. wars is making it more difficult for them to be fought. Rumsfeld's sharpest rebuke was of the Arab media. al- Jazeera, for instance, he said, is pounding the people of the region with things that are not true. He criticize what he had called the drumbeat for more U.S. troops in Iraq and said he'll keep repeating why it is important to build up Iraqi forces.
And he suggested that misguided criticism from the home front could give terrorists and their sympathizers false hope that the U.S. might throw in the towel. He didn't name anyone, but he suggested that the kind of talk coming from domestic critics could encourage terrorist groups to do more fund-raising and recruiting. But Rumsfeld was quick to add that he was not suggesting his critics remain silent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Obviously, it makes our task more difficult. That does not mean there should not be a debate on these things. There should be a debate and discussion on these things. We can live with that. We can live with a healthy debate, as long as it is as elevated as possible and as civil as possible.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: Now, Rumsfeld says terrorists have studied both Somalia and Lebanon, where, when the United States suffered significant casualties, it withdrew and its will to stay was broken. He insists, that will not be the case this time.
As for the criticism that he has somehow mishandled the reconstruction of rack, Rumsfeld rejects that. He says that he will continue to try to make the case of why the current policy and plan is a good one and that progress is actually better than many people believe. And he says, if it turns out that some of his critics are right about some things, he'll simply recalibrate -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jamie, a couple of quick questions. Did Secretary Rumsfeld point out the lessons of history there, that overwhelming force assures the greatest security for American troops as well?
MCINTYRE: Well, he's trying to make the point that it is far more important that they have Iraqis in control of security and that he insists that the United States does not need more of its troops there.
And he seems a little bit dumbfounded that that argument is not having more resonance, that people keep coming back with the insistence that the U.S. may need more troops there. He says he simply is going to keep repeating what he believes is the logic of that argument.
DOBBS: Jamie, turning to another issue, did Secretary Rumsfeld learn anything about weapons of mass destruction on his tour?
MCINTYRE: Well, very interestingly, he sort of pushed that off his agenda. He says it is an intelligence issue, that the survey group headed by David Kay that is searching for those weapons is reporting to CIA Director George Tenet, not to him.
And he said he's making a point, really, of not staying current on that issue. He did meet with David Kay. And he said he didn't even ask him whether they had made any progress finding weapons of mass destruction. He said he assumed, if David Kay had something to report, he would bring it up.
DOBBS: Aren't U.S. forces involved in the search for weapons of mass destruction, Jamie?
MCINTYRE: Only if they have intelligence that would require the U.S. military to move in. But, basically, it is the survey group, several thousand.
And they're looking more now for evidence of the weapons programs, rather than the weapons themselves, not ruling out that they might find actual weapons at some point in the future.
DOBBS: Jamie, thank you -- Jamie McIntyre reporting from the Pentagon, our senior Pentagon correspondent.
Terrorists wounded two U.S. soldiers in Iraq today. Those soldiers were traveling in a convoy of Humvees when a bomb went off in the center of Baghdad. None of the injuries is reported to be life- threatening.
U.S. troops in Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit today arrested four terrorist suspects. Military officials say three of them may have been involved in planning bomb attacks.
And Britain today said it will deploy another two infantry battalions to Iraq. That would mean about another 1,200 British soldiers. They will join more than 10,000 other British troops already in the Basra region.
Troops serving in Liberia are facing a different kind of enemy; 12 U.S. Marines supporting West African peacekeepers in Liberia have contracted malaria. Another 21 troops are showing signs of the disease. Two of the Marines are seriously ill. They are receiving treatment at a U.S. medical facility in Germany. The other 31 Marines are in Bethesda Naval Hospital in Maryland. The Pentagon claims all of the men did receive medicine designed to prevent malaria. However, it has no explanation for how this many Marines contracted the disease.
The White House today defended the president's request for another $87 billion to fight terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. The White House said the federal budget deficit next year will now be $525 billion with that extra spending authorized. There is little doubt the Congress will eventually approve the president's request. But some lawmakers say it is just an initial down payment on the cost of making Iraq and Afghanistan secure.
Jonathan Karl joins me now from Capitol Hill with the story -- Jonathan.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, in the wake of the president's speech last night, Democrats have actually stepped up their criticism of the president and his handling of postwar Iraq.
But no single prominent Democrat has come forward to say that they would oppose spending the $87 billion the president wants to spend in Iraq and Afghanistan. At a forum for Democratic presidential candidates in Washington here today, John Kerry came out, had some criticism for the president, said his speech was totally inadequate.
But when asked about the $87 billion, Senator Kerry had this to say. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to do whatever is needed to protect our troops and whatever is needed to be successful. I want to be successful there. We have to be. But I want to have a further explanation of questions that are unanswered. And I would like to see a much greater involvement of the United Nations. I think that the speech was completely inadequate in that regard and leaves the American people really questioning where we're going.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: And even Howard Dean, who has been the president's most vocal critic on Iraq, would not say what he would do about the $87 billion, simply avoided the question, saying he's not running for Congress.
Meanwhile, Republicans are saying the president gave a solid speech. They will support him on his effort to get the money he needs in Iraq. But one prominent member of the Republican leadership here in the Senate said that she believes that the money must eventually be repaid by other nations or from Iraq's oil revenues.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON (R), TEXAS: I do think, in this case, that we would expect others to step up to the plate. I think other countries have a stake here. I think they are interested. Many of them are helping already. We can't do this halfway. We have got to do it right. We will put the money up. But we must also look to be repaid for most of it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: Although Democrats can be expected to support the money, they will try to attack strings to the money, will have some help from Republicans on that. Senator Ted Kennedy is preparing an amendment to this budget request already, even though it hasn't formally been offered yet.
Senator Kennedy would require the president to have a specific outline of how the money will be spent, his plan for postwar reconstruction, and also a timetable, a long-term timetable, for the withdrawal of U.S. troops -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jonathan, the $87 billion, any indication there on Capitol Hill in the meetings between White House staff and congressional staff as to whether or not there is any set percentage of that money that will be repaid by Iraqi oil exports?
KARL: Nothing yet. This is part of the discussions. They've had nothing specific on that. Right now, what is being asked is $87 billion to be spent from the U.S. Treasury, no indication about how much, if any, will be repaid by oil revenue.
DOBBS: Jonathan Karl reporting from Capitol Hill -- thank you, Jon.
The $87 billion price tag for Iraq and Afghanistan is a huge amount of money, but it is a relatively small amount when compared with the potential costs of a major terrorist attack on this country.
The Brookings Institution, for example, estimates, a biological attack on a major urban area could cost the economy $750 billion, in addition to the horrific loss of life. But the $87 billion is nonetheless significant. It is more, for example, than the budgets of most Cabinet agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture and Education, which spends $73 billion and $60 billion respectively.
The $87 billion is, however, less than the $99 billion write-down announced by AOL Time Warner last year and not much bigger than the $67 billion in shareholder value that was destroyed by Enron's scandal and bankruptcy.
The White House today gave a very rough breakdown of how that total of $87 billion will be spent, more than 80 percent to go for military operations and reconstruction in Iraq. Most of the rest is earmarked for Afghanistan.
Jan Hopkins reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAN HOPKINS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Three quarters of the $87 billion -- that's $66 billion -- would go pay for additional costs of fighting terrorism around the world. That $66 billion would be broken down this way: $51 billion for ongoing military operations in Iraq, including $300 million for body armor, $140 million for more Humvees.
Plus, troops in Iraq for more than a year would get two weeks of rest and relaxation; $11 billion would go for U.S. troops in Afghanistan, $4 billion for other parts of the world. After the $66 billion that goes for the military, the rest of the money, about $21 billion, would help in the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan; $5 billion would go to improve security in Iraq and $15 billion to build and repair clinics, make drinking water safe, open ports, restore electricity and oil production.
Not much is working in Iraq. The electricity is sporadic and much of the water is unsafe. But some Iraqi experts point out that not much worked before the war either.
DAVID L. PHILLIPS, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: The utility grid was already seriously degraded before the war. It was worsened by the looting and the sabotage. The intermittent electricity that the Iraqis experience today is no worse than it was prior to military conflict.
HOPKINS: So far, the U.S. has spent about $12 billion on reconstruction in Iraq. Some believe the cost of rehabilitating Iraq will be spread over five years. MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: It looks like the total price tag will be at least $300 billion, when all is said and done. We're looking at costs for 2003 through just this month that will total about $60 billion in Iraq, costs next year that should total about $70 billion. So we're already halfway to the $300 billion total just in the first two years.
HOPKINS: Initially, it was thought that the money to rebuild Iraq would come from selling Iraqi oil. That has not worked out. Now the costs of rebuilding Iraq are being turned over to the U.S. taxpayer.
The president also wants to spend more to rebuild Afghanistan. Nearly $2 billion has already been spent there on roads, bridges and schools. The president wants to spend $1 billion more this year.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOPKINS: Putting it in perspective, the $87 billion budget for Iraq and Afghanistan is close to New York state's budget for this year. Last year, Iraq and Afghanistan's entire economies produced $77 billion, $10 billion less than the U.S. proposes to spend there in one year -- Lou.
DOBBS: And it is starting to look like Lawrence Lindsey, the former economic advise, had the number right, about $200 billion, before he left the White House.
HOPKINS: That's right -- or more.
DOBBS: Jan, thank you -- Jan Hopkins.
Well, the man nominated to be the new Palestinian prime minister today said he will accept the job if the United States and Europe offer their guarantees of support. Ahmed Qureia said he wants Israel to loosen its military control of the West Bank and Gaza. Yasser Arafat nominated Qureia as prime minister after the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas this weekend.
Later, I'll be talking with former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller about the implications of the Abbas resignation for Middle East peace. Miller is president of Seeds of Peace, a 30-year negotiator in the Middle East.
Also ahead tonight: The Supreme Court returns from recess early to take up a critical issue that could have a direct impact on the presidential election next year. Patty Davis will have the report on this unusual special session of the U.S. Supreme Court from Washington.
And the American way of life forever altered by the events of September 11. Peter Viles begins our series of special reports this week on "A Changed Nation."
And one man who says Americans are too concerned about terrorism. Michael Kinsley is the editor of "Slate" magazine. He joins us. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Indiana Governor Frank O'Bannon tonight is in a Chicago hospital after he suffered a stroke. O'Bannon was found unconscious in a Chicago hotel room this morning. The governor underwent four hours of surgery for a cerebral hemorrhage. Doctors have not yet provided a prognosis. The 73-year-old governor was in Chicago for a business conference. He was given a clean bill of health at a physical only three months ago.
The Supreme Court today returned from its summer recess a month early for what could be its most important case in decades. The justices heard arguments for and against the controversial campaign finance reform law passed by Congress last year. It could change the way political donations are made. It could change the nature of American politics.
Patty Davis reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATTY DAVIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): With hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign money at stake, a special urgency by the Supreme Court to resolve the case quickly, before the coming federal elections; at issue, a sweeping new law that bans unregulated unlimited contributions to political parties known as soft money.
Inside the court, the justices struggled with whether the law is needed to stem corruption or whether it tramples free speech rights. Justice Antonin Scalia predicted abuses and questioned whether incumbent lawmakers were only worried about protecting their political careers.
JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA, U.S. SUPREME COURT: Why do you pick on the party as this instrument for making public views, even the public views of the wealthy, known and allow contributions to these other groups?
THEODORE OLSON, SOLICITOR-GENERAL: Congress didn't pick on the party, Justice Scalia. The parties are given considerable privileges, the power to put candidates on the ballot. There is reasons that the exercise of this enormous power can be subject to greater restrictions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)
NARRATOR: Al Gore created the Clean Water Action Plan to clean up polluted...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DAVIS: The other controversial provision, a ban on issue- advocacy ads that some call attack ads paid for by labor unions and corporations shortly before an election. First Amendment attorney Floyd Abrams argued, that amounts to a content-base restriction on speech. But at least one justice offered some support for the ban.
Justice Sandra Day O'Connor: "Are you saying no effective regulation of electioneering is possible?"
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DAVIS: Opponents say that law is simply overly broad. Now, a decision by the justices is expected, Lou, by the end of the year, before the primary season gets under way -- back to you.
DOBBS: And, Patty, how could this case affect the presidential election itself?
DAVIS: Well, certainly, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of soft money at stake. If they strike this down, allow that ban on soft money to go away, you're going to see a lot of this corporate, this union money coming back in, unrestricted. Right now, it is restricted. They're not allowed to contribute this money as soft money, as they used to be able to do, $500 million, in fact, in the 2000 election cycle, so a lot of money at stake here that could help candidates in the presidential election -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Patty Davis, reporting from Washington.
Record companies today followed through on their promise to sue anyone who illegally downloads and shares music over the Internet. The Recording Industry Association of America filed 261 lawsuits all around the country, says the individuals sued have, on average, a collection of 1,000 copyrighted songs each. The industry also announced an amnesty program for online song-swappers who promise to delete their downloaded files.
Coming up next here: two years later, how the attacks of September 11 have changed the American way of life. Peter Viles begins our series of special reports tonight.
And are Americans focused too closely on the threat of terror? Michael Kinsley, the founding editor of "Slate" magazine, says yes. He is our guest.
And millions of Americans living on slave wages, why a hard day's work is not enough for many working-class Americans. Beth Shulman, author of "The Betrayal of Work," is our guest.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Coming up: Have you ever been polled, yes or no? That's our poll question tonight. And chances are that you have. But the results may not always tell the whole truth, in some cases, not even part of the truth. Bill Tucker has our special report on the art of the unscientific poll, the polls we all pay so much attention to.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, we begin a series of special reports this week, "A Changed Nation."
The terrorist attacks on the United States two years ago this week shocked the country and the world. Those attacks also changed the way we look at and deal with the world around us.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (singing): God bless America.
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Life changes in little ways. An old patriotic song makes a comeback at baseball parks. At a football game, extra security measures. We budget more time when we go to the airport.
Life changes in big ways, too, front page news, the threat of terrorism, the cost of war.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: For America, there will be no going back to the era before September the 11th, 2001, to false comfort in a dangerous world.
VILES: The end of false comfort means anxiety. Polling shows fears of terrorist attacks are still with us, although fading.
In the weeks just after September 11, nearly 30 percent of Americans told the Pew Research Center they were -- quote -- "very worried" about an imminent terrorist attack. In late August, the percentage was 13 percent. In places like Danbury, Connecticut, a prosperous city with a low crime rate, police officers use their imagination in a new way: How might a terrorist attack our city?
ARTHUR SULLO, DANBURY POLICE DEPARTMENT: We have taken extra security in the city, watching our watersheds in the cities, our electric power areas, the large traffic generators, such as the Danbury Fair Mall, which is one of the largest malls in New England.
VILES: Americans are more likely to fly the flag, more likely to feel patriotic. Prior to the attacks, 55 percent of Americans described themselves as extremely proud to be an American. That number grew to 65 percent after the attacks and to 70 percent this summer. In small ways, Americans pitch in where they might not have before.
KRISTIN VAN OGTROP, EDITOR, "REAL SIMPLE": During the blackout, I was making my way home. And I was startled by the number of everyday people who were in intersections directing traffic. And I looked at that and I thought, I bet that would not have been the case before 9/11.
VILES: Respect has grown for those in uniform, whether in the military or public safety. Firefighters ranked first, ahead of even nurses, in one poll of ethical standards and honesty.
ANDREW KOHUT, DIRECTOR, THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER: There was a certainly a pat on the back for people who are in harm's way. But there is also, I think, a continuing appreciation of those -- those in our society who protect us, from the military to the police to the fire departments. And that will continue to linger, as the American public continues to feel concerned about the threat of terrorism.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: It is important to note that these security anxieties are not unprecedented. For example, fears of a nuclear war, yes, are higher today than they were a decade ago, but they are still well below the levels reached in the mid-'80s at the end of the Cold War -- Lou.
DOBBS: And that change, in terms of the anxiety, at least it is abating somewhat.
VILES: Yes.
DOBBS: And that's a terrific sign of some success.
VILES: It's still much higher than it was prior to the event, but declining slowly. It did spike in February of this year, when there were a number of warnings from the government. So people are listening to their government on this, but, in general, a little less anxiety than there was a couple of years ago.
DOBBS: And, obviously, in the run-up to war against Saddam Hussein.
VILES: Yes.
DOBBS: Peter Viles, thank you.
My next guest says the people of this country worry too much about terrorism and says, since we can't possibly know the real risk to our lives from terrorists, we should focus more on the risks we do know about.
Michael Kinsley is a columnist, the founding editor of "Slate" and the former co-host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE," and joins us tonight from Seattle, Washington.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Michael, good to have you with us.
MICHAEL KINSLEY, FOUNDING EDITOR, "SLATE": Thanks.
DOBBS: The idea that we should not be worrying about terrorism I think has to strike as something of a thunderbolt to many people. Why should we not be very concerned about it? Why should not our concern about terrorism influence our lives?
KINSLEY: Well, of course we should be concerned about it.
But people in general, and Americans in particular, are not very good at assessing small risks of large disasters, compared to the ordinary risks of everyday life. If you were to stop and think every time you take a plane, you probably spend an extra couple hours standing in line, feeling tense, drinking coffee, eating junk food, and you've possibly reduced the risk of a terrorist episode, vs., if you spent those couple hours getting some extra sleep, which one would be more likely to increase your life expectancy?
But that's the kind of rational thinking which is very hard to do. And everything in our culture points the other way. You and I, the press, are responsible for drumming up -- it wouldn't be very interesting if CNN was running a series this week about an unchanged nation. And the government, of course, has its own bureaucratic imperatives to say something is a crisis and to keep it going.
And politicians and lawyers also benefit from being able to have occasions for lawsuits. You can't sue anyone about the ordinary risks of life.
DOBBS: I think, Michael, my first instinct is to reject the thought as to what you proffered in your article in "TIME" magazine. The second is that there is a resonance of truth and that there is too much, perhaps, an element at least of -- frankly, the word is phoniness about it, because the risks are not shared.
Our military, 1.4 million young men and women, for the most part, carry the burden, our firefighters, our police officers, our doctors and nurses. So there is that resonance. But, at the same time, you wouldn't expect in any way that this nation not be changed.
KINSLEY: Well, certainly, we're changed a little bit.
I don't think, in terms of the day-to-day life of people who aren't firefighters and who aren't the soldiers on the front lines, it's all that different, except at airports. And I think that is one of the problems. It sounds to me like you think that, too, that the Bush administration says: "We're going to give you a tax cut to help you do your bit. That's your bit in fighting terrorism."
And people haven't -- aren't paying for the additional protection they're getting, in fact. We're borrowing that money. And I don't -- I think it is very easy to think we're in a crisis. You can go about your daily life and not have to pay any cost for it, and have that sort of excitement anyway.
DOBBS: The effect on our lives, I know, initially you were unconcerned about racial profiling at airports as security was tightened significantly around the nation. What is your thinking now two years later almost? KINSLEY: Well, I wrote a piece that I got a bit of trouble for saying that in a short-term emergency, it was asking too much of people not to make generalizations from the way people look as they're boarding an airplane. And that's human nature and also in a time of emergency, it's almost unavoidable. That time of emergency, I think, has definitely passed. And I don't think that should go on.
DOBBS: Michael, you got in trouble. I know there is some reflex in it and I also know you well enough to know it is an intellectual process to that you followed to get to where you are. At the same time, is it not as you suggest entirely rational way in which to live our lives knowing that the incipient roots of the threat?
KINSLEY: You're saying the racial profiling?
DOBBS: Yes.
KINSLEY: I think if you have time and it's not an emergency and it's not happen investigate quickly, there are many ways to get -- make more rational decision about who might be a terrorist than generalizing from the way people look. For any number of reasons, the vast majority of which...
DOBBS: Oh, no, no, no. I wasn't suggesting, Michael...
KINSLEY: The vast majority of people who look like that aren't even Arabs. The -- it's just not a rational -- it's not even a sensible way to go about it.
DOBBS: Well, we thank you for being here. And I wish that we had the luxury, as I know you do, of not even having to think about it. But not having that luxury, as we have noted, and will continue to note throughout this week on our special reports on "A Changed Nation," we are indeed a changed people. Michael Kinsley, thank you very much for being with us.
KINSLEY: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Tomorrow, we continue our series of special reports on "A Changed Nation." We take a look at the travel, the way that we travel the country and the world, the way our travel habits have changed since September 11 and the impact that date has had on our country.
Tonight's quote is on the work that still must be done to honor those killed on the 11th of September. "Our final tribute to the dead of September 11 must be to fulfill our responsibility to defend the living, to finish the work. Our greatest memorial to those who have passed must be to protect the lives and liberties who are yet to come. So let us be clear and let us be resolved -- we will finish the work begun on September 11." U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft.
Coming up next, Americans are polled on everything from sports to politics. Can the results of those surveys be trusted? Bill Tucker will report on why not, perhaps.
And an unexpected turn in the road map to Middle East peace, a shocking resignation, a new name -- a new man steps forward. Aaron David Miller is a former Middle East peace negotiator. He joins us to tell us the problems with the road map and what must be done to reach peace.
And working for a living -- why millions of our hard-working fellow Americans struggle to make ends meet. Beth Schulman is the author of "The Betrayal of Work." She'll be our guest.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: NASA plans to put the next space shuttle in space by March. But NASA said safety, not scheduling, will dictate the exact date. The space shuttle program has been grounded since the Columbia disaster in February. NASA today promised to redesign the shuttle to make it safer. Officials also promised to improve the agency's culture to prevent future disaster.
We have become a nation obsessed, it seems at times, by polls. From politics to health to television programs, someone somewhere wants to know what we think, how we feel. We include ourselves in that impulse.
But as Bill Tucker reports, polling results can be manipulated to say just about anything.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Should America send more troops...
BILL TUCKER, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Polls are everywhere -- in the paper, on TV, on this network. By the end of the year, CNN will have conducted on average about a poll a week. And that's not counting the polls that many shows on CNN run asking viewers to call in and vote on a question. And viewers do call in, encouraging more polls.
BRITT BEEMER, AMERICA'S RESEARCH GROUP: Polling is a way to get a snapshot of America at a particular time. And, you know, this society has always been so driven by the population as a whole because we are a government of people and not a government of one person or few people.
TUCKER: It's not the map that's the problem. Reputable surveys from a sampling of 1,000 people which gives them an error rate of plus or minus slightly more than 3 percent. Why a thousand? Because if you increase the sampling size to 2,3, even 100,000, the error rate improves by only about a percent and costs skyrocket.
Critics of political polling fault the pollsters for asking simple questions with one goal in mind.
KEELYANNE CONWAY, PRESIDENT, THE POLLING COMPANY: If you need to break news in the next hour, if you have conclusions and search of evidence meaning tomorrow's newspaper headlines are already written, you know, "Bush Down in the Approval Ratings;" "Schwarzenegger Tongue- Tied," then you need some evidence to support those conclusions. And the quickest way do that is to have very to the point, almost leading questions. And I fear that's what is going on today.
TUCKER: Those critics argue that polls on the Internet or on TV urging people to call in and vote should not be called polls. They should be called fun.
KARLYN BOWMAN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: Polling is here to stay. It -- in part because it is a useful tool in a democracy that's important to know what people are thinking. But we should have some reservations about polls used.
TUCKER: Complicating the process for pollsters in raising the costs is the response rate (ph). Pollsters say that getting a phone call from a pollster is not nearly as unique as it once was. It now takes about 2,000 connected phone calls to get 1,000 opinions -- Lou.
DOBBS: So basically the pollsters are admitting themselves that it's A, difficult to get a proper sample for polling, and, two, the results themselves could be, let's say, somewhat dubious.
TUCKER: Yes, indeed. Instead of calling you and asking you about the four things you're most angry about, they give you a list of four things, limiting your choices and limiting the poll.
DOBBS: And as our news organization is involved in polling and as this broadcast is involved in polling, we want to be absolutely clear, we're going to continue to poll and we will have a little fun with it.
TUCKER: Absolutely.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Bill Tucker.
Speaking of polls, we want to hear from you on the topic of tonight's poll question. "Have you ever participated in a poll, besides this one of course? Yes or no" Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later in the show.
Coming up next, a stunning development on the road to Middle East peace. But will a change in leadership bring an end to deadly violence? Aaron David Miller is a former Mid East peace negotiator, the president of Seeds of Peace. He joins us next to discuss that issue.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is the latest setback for the road map for peace. My guest tonight says the road map is unrealistic and not implementable. Aaron David Miller, former Middle East peace negotiator, and president of Seeds of Peace, joins us. Good to have you with us. AARON DAVID MILLER, FMR. MIDEAST NEGOTIATOR: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: The suggestion that the road map can't be implemented, what did do you mean when you say that?
MILLER: What I mean it can be implemented but it is not self- implementing. That is to say Palestinians have a set of responsibilities, Israelis have a set of responsibilities. The gap with respect to suspicions, trust, is so profound that neither side will be able to take the kind of steps that are required. What the road map requires is a third party that has the confidence and trust of both sides and is prepared to do serious and intensive diplomacy.
The third party is not the United States?
The third party is the United States working closely with the Arabs and Europeans. I don't think we can do it alone. The reality is if left this to their own devices, it is clear. What occurred in June, the president made a bold move. He showed up in Aqaba, gave a terrific speech, appointed a monitor. But the problem is there is nothing to monitor. What needs to be done is the road map needs to be negotiated with Israelis and Palestinians being very clearly aware of what each side's requirements are and with timetables and benchmarks and performance standards.
DOBBS: I guess if there is a more frustrating story for any region in the world, I can't imagine it ending more difficult issue for negotiators. But, my god, we have 50 years, a half century experience. The idea that both sides don't know what the other requires, the fact that the third party in this case, the United States, does not know what is needed, it seems almost impossible and inconceivable.
MILLER: Lou, I'll tell you, we have a profound and severe crisis. And that's against the backdrop of 30 years of American efforts to help Arabs and Israelis sort out their difficulties. We made the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty ultimate. We played a key role in brokering the terms of the Madrid peace conference. When two parties do not trust one another, particularly when it is played out against the backdrop of terror and violence, in this kind of environment, a third party is critical. I'm not suggesting that the Palestinians and Israelis don't know what it is they have to do. They know only too well.
DOBBS: What should the United States do right now to end the idiocy, the madness of what has become a holy land hell?
MILLER: We're getting involved in this problem a little late, frankly. We have a situation where there are no controls, no rules. Each side is contemplating, Hamas, a terrorist organization is contemplating revenge for what the Israeli's have been doing and Israelis are prepared to preempt at every occasion. I guess, and I'm not trying to offer unsolicited advice, the fact is the administration needs to make this issue a top priority. Very forceful, willful president that made Iraq and its reconstruction a top priority. Great power is not only need effective counterterrorism policies, they need policies of sustained conflict management and conflict resolution.
DOBBS: And economic development in the entire region, which give at least the Palestinians something to lose for first time in a half century.
MILLER: Right. Parties have tough decisions to take. But only the U.S. can orchestrate the sequence of those decisions.
DOBBS: Aaron David Miller, we thank you for being with us.
MILLER: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Coming up next, millions of Americans putting in an honest's day work, hard work, for disgracefully low pay. Beth Shulman is the author of "The Betrayal of Work." How low way jobs fail 30 million Americans. She joins us next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Thirty million of our fellow citizens are in less than $18,000 a year. The official poverty level for a family of four. In her book "The Betrayal of Work", Beth Shulman says the number of people working in low-end jobs will amount to 30 percent of the entire American workforce by the end of this decade.
And we are joined now by Beth Shulman and we thank you for being with us.
BETH SHULMAN, AUTHOR: It is a pleasure to be here.
DOBBS: Beth, the number is startling, 30 million people. The first reaction on the part of most people has to be, but you're talking about young kids working in a McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King. You're talking about retired people doing part time work at a local retail store. But that's not the case, is it?
SHULMAN: No. The reality is that low wage jobs are the mainstream of our society. They're janitors, hotel workers, they're child care workers, they're nursing home workers, they're home health care workers, they're educational assistants, they're security guards. Low wage jobs are the mainstream of our economy. Who is in these jobs are mostly adults with family responsibilities, just like the rest of us.
DOBBS: And the bottom line is it is all about supply and demand. More people willing to work for these low wages than there are jobs or prices would rise, right?
SHULMAN: You know, America honors work, yet we're failing to reward it for the over 30 million Americans. And we're making choices and have been making choices that affect these workers. This isn't about the market working, this is about the market failing. It is about the market failing 30 million Americans. It is not only providing low wages in this job, it is provide nothing health benefits, no pension benefits, workers in low wage jobs work under the most hazardous conditions. And they get the least time off being with their families. This is a market failing to produce a middle class America that can purchase the goods that we have in our society. So, this is a market failing and these are choices Americans are making and we can make better choices that it reward all working Americans.
DOBBS: What is the solution?
SHULMAN: There is a lot of solutions. There is the solutions out there already going on in a variety of places around the country. There is livable wage ordinances there is states already providing health insurance to workers, or 200 percent of poverty. We need to raise the minimum wage. The minimum wage is $2 less in value than it was in 1968. Today it is $5.15 an hour that is less than $10,000 a year.
DOBBS: Beth, I don't think there is anyone listening tie word you've said that does not want anyone of those 30 million Americans to be making more money, and to have health benefits. But the health benefits, as you know, is a huge issue for a lot of Americans, well beyond the 30 million in these low wage paying jobs. But the fact is this is a country that doesn't want to secure its borders, does not apparently want to make certain that immigration, illegal immigration is stopped so there would be a greater constraint on the number of people looking for work, which would raise wages. Is that part of the solution in your judgment?
SHULMAN: The reality is that the solution is to make choices -- this is the mainstream of society. This isn't about illegal immigrants. This isn't about high school dropouts. This is about adults working hard every day and every night and the solutions are to ensure that those working Americans have the basics of a decent life.
This is the richest country in the world. We need to ensure that workers have the basics.
SHULMAN: And I think that -- I would first say that in your work, we honor those who work hard in this country. And the payoff for hard work is supposed to be prosperity and a better life. When that doesn't happen, we have to address it.
DOBBS: We thank you for doing so in your book. We thank you for being here to share your thoughts and for being with us.
SHULMAN: It is a pleasure being here. Thank you.
DOBBS: Tonight's thought is on the value of work. "Far and way the best prize life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing." That from the 26th president of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt.
When we continue, we'll have the results of tonight's poll.
Also, a milestone for the Nasdaq. Christine Romans will have the market for us.
And fat cats and dogs, too. Pats -- pets who are living got life. Too good a life. That story and a great deal more. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Not a lot of people went to the movie over the weekend, apparently. In fact, overall ticket sales hit a downright slump, what the industry calls a seasonal slide. David Spade's new comedy became the lowest grossing No. 1 since the year 2000. "Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star" is the title of the blockbuster. It took in $6.5 million in the first weekend. "Jeepers Creepers 2" fell to second. "Pirates of the Caribbean" was third followed by "Freaky Friday." And I've seen three out of the top five. I'm feeling pretty good.
Now the results of tonight's poll, which, of course -- the results are scientific, of course, without any question. "Have you ever participated in a poll besides this one?" Eighty-two percent of you replied yes, 18 percent of said no. The results are there for your edification and we hope some, at least, amusement.
A more scientific survey shows gasoline prices have fallen for a second straight week. The Energy Department says a gallon of regular unleaded fell 2.9 cents. It's still at $1.72, however. And the department says prices likely will hover above $1.50 a gallon through the fall. Good news, but there is , of course, even a limit to good news.
Turning to stocks now, the Nasdaq today rose to its highest close in a year and a half. The Dow also higher, up 83 points, while the Nasdaq gained 30. The S&P up 10.
Christine Romans is here with the market. A pretty good market, Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT: It really was. Cyclicals, semiconductors, drug stocks powering the Nasdaq, Lou, to the highest since March 2002. The S&P at the highest since June of last year. And the Dow is a few points below a new high for this move.
Now we're into September. Stocks remaining strong. The S&P is up 17 percent this year. The Dow up 15 percent. The Nasdaq up 41 percent. The Standard and Poor's Investment Committee believes the mark has nearly wrapped up year one of a new bull market that began October last year. Sam Stovall at S&P expects the index up 23 percent for 2003.
He's got the numbers to back up that forecast, Lou. Since 1949, the average bull market has posted a first year gain of 36 percent. And recovered 88 percent of the bear market decline. The second year it gains another 13 percent. How has this rally stacked up? The S&P 500 up 31 percent since last October and has recovered about a third of its total bear market decline.
Also, much has been made, Lou, of September's bad reputation for the bulls on Wall Street. But some things to consider here: a pre- election year tends to be good for stocks and September tends to be a good month in the first year of a bull market if that's what this is -- Lou
DOBBS: And history is always an accurate indicator of future performance, correct?
ROMANS: No.
DOBBS: Christine, thanks. Christine Romans.
Now for a look at your thoughts. Many of you wrote in about the president's address on Iraq.
John Garan Jr. of Haddon Heights, New Jersey writes, "It looks like Larry Lindsey's $200 billion cost assessment for the Iraq war was right on the money. Too bad he was told to resign."
Tim Sergesketter of Evansville, Indiana: "George Bush said he was a uniter and not a divider when he was running for president in 2000. He was correct. He's united the world against the U.S."
Darlene Kurtz, "Last week I heard people saying Bush should ask for help. Did hey forget he did and was denied help following U.N. resolution 1441 so he faced it almost alone and has accomplished quite a bit in Iraq, something others failed to do."
And Jonathan Service of Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania wrote in with his take on the loss of jobs, "Joe Smith started the day early, having set his alarm clock (MADE IN JAPAN), for 6:00 a.m., while his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA), was perking. He put on a dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA) after setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN). He got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY) and continued his search for a good-paying American job. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day, Joe decided to relax for awhile. He poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE), turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA), and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in America."
We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts. Loudobbs@cnn.com.
And finally tonight, pudgy pets. It's not just Americans are overweight, but a quarter of all pets in the Western world are now obese. Scientists blame their owners for giving them too much food, and they say all of that extra weight puts the fat cats and dumpy dogs at risk for major health problems. Their advice -- give those pets less to eat or low calorie food. This survey and these conclusions and advice cost hundreds of thousands of dollars and worth every penny of it. By the way, make sure your pets drink plenty of water.
That's our show for tonight. Thanks for being with us. Tomorrow, our series of special reports on "A Changed Nation," a look at September 11's impact on America. A report in cooperation with "The Economist" magazine as well, "Islam and Democracy."
For all of us here, good night from New York.
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