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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Republicans Launch National Convention in New York City; Interview With Trent Lott
Aired August 30, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: Tonight, Republicans launch their national convention in New York's Madison Square Garden, trying to appeal to independent voters while rallying the party.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We will leave here with momentum that will carry us to victory in November.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: We'll have complete coverage of the convention and the platform the Republicans approved today. Senator Trent Lott joins me to talk about national security. Congresswoman Ann Northrup will be here to discuss international trade and exporting America.
Also tonight. what could be a pivotal issue in this presidential election, the middle-class squeeze. The president's critics say his trade policies are destroying American jobs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Their whole policy is geared towards exporting our jobs and importing products.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Scandal in the Pentagon. Tonight, the investigation of an alleged Israeli spy, one of this country's most powerful lobby groups, and the neoconservatives who helped shape the country's Iraq war policies.
And in broken borders tonight, California lawmakers vote in favor of driver's licenses for illegal aliens. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger promises to veto the legislation. Tonight a Republican congressman who's critical of his party's position on immigration, Congresswoman Tom Tancredo, is my guest.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, August 30. Here now, for an hour of news, debate, and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Republicans launched their national convention in New York City today, declaring President Bush to be one of this country's greatest leaders ever. Top Republicans praised President Bush for his aggressive response to the September 11 attacks and his wartime leadership.
President Bush also won the support of two prominent liberals, former New York City mayor Ed Koch and actor Ron Silver. Tonight, Senator John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani will deliver prime-time speeches saluting the president's achievements.
We begin our coverage tonight with Judy Woodruff, host of our "INSIDE POLITICS," at Madison Square Garden. Judy?
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": Good evening, Lou.
Yes, it is finally under way. You could say we've known ever since George W. Bush took office that he was going to be running for a second term. But today, his name was formally placed in nomination.
You know, Republicans have spent millions of dollars, put countless hours of energy into making this convention the perfect launch for the Bush-Cheney fall campaign. And now. with strategists feeling a little wind at their backs, feeling good about the late public opinion polls, feeling they've energized their conservative base, now their main goal is to reach out to independent voters and persuadables, and that explains the two star speakers tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOODRUFF (voice-over): John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, often at odds with their own party, tonight united in support of its standard bearer.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: ... for the president of the United States, George W. Bush.
WOODRUFF: Top draws on the campaign trail, working tirelessly to promote the president, particularly notable for two men with careers punctuated by clashes with the Republican establishment. McCain insists there is no lingering bitterness from the bruising primary of 2000.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, 1994)
MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI (R), NEW YORK CITY: ... that Mario Cuomo would be a far better governor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WOODRUFF: Giuliani, who ran for mayor on a fusion ticket with two Democrats, has put his 1994 stunning endorsement of Democrat Mario Cuomo far behind him.
Still, the former New York mayor and his long-time friend, the Arizona senator, haven't been party-line people. They've broken with the GOP on issues like gay marriage and campaign finance. But that is a large part of their appeal. The call-it-as-they-see-it style has served them well. Their compelling life stories give their words weight.
Giuliani's 9/11 credibility adds heft to his critique of John Kerry as...
GIULIANI: Senator Kerry voted against it, as did Senator Edwards, only among four senators who had voted for the war and against the appropriation.
WOODRUFF: McCain's heroism as a prisoner of war lends depth to his praise of the president.
MCCAIN: This president, on September 11, rose to lead this nation with moral strength and with clarity...
WOODRUFF: In a sense, this campaign has tamed the two famously pugnacious pols, perhaps collecting chits for future White House runs.
McCain and Giuliani try not to talk about it, but it's clear the show is far from over for these maverick stars of the political stage.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WOODRUFF: Far from over, and that's why they are so pleased to be playing a big role on the first night of this convention, winning points with delegates who are here tonight, all this week, and who may well return for future Republican conventions, Lou.
DOBBS: Well, first, Judy, we are -- we have another four days to get through this one, and I know that you and Wolf Blitzer will be leading the way, so we look forward to that.
The big challenge, of course, for Republicans is to win over undecided voters in battleground states. The Republicans hope their convention will soften the party's conservative image among those critical swing voters.
Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now. Bill?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I have a list of all the undecided voters right here in my pockets, I have their telephone numbers. They're very small in number. I'm going to call every one of them. I'm going to ask them, what's up with you?
DOBBS: Bill, the issue for most of the money that is being spent here is how to reach them. Are they -- are these parties, both Democrats and Republicans, are there any signs that they're being successful, with all of the money that both parties are spending?
SCHNEIDER: Most of these undecided voters, particularly in the swing states, are tuned out of politics. They don't pay a lot of attention. Parties spend a lot of money trying to reach them, but there's no indication yet that they have swung in a decisive direction one way or the other. They often don't make up their minds until the very last minute, which is why elections like this are typically down to the wire. DOBBS: Reports that in at least three states the president -- battleground states, the president has made a sizable move and actually has a improved position against Senator Kerry. What can you tell us about that tonight?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there is an -- there are indications that in Pennsylvania, the race is tied. President Bush has campaigned hard there. Wisconsin, that was a Gore state in 2000. The president may be a few points ahead. Kerry is ahead in Iowa, but only narrowly, by about six points. That's within the margin of error.
All of these are former Gore states that Kerry has to keep in order to win this election. And the indications are, Kerry's in some trouble there. There's some momentum for Bush, not huge momentum, but look, if this convention works the way the Republicans want, and Bush gets a little bit of a bounce and gets over 50 percent, he can breathe a little bit easier. He's the incumbent, and an incumbent has to get over 50 percent to feel as if people are ready to reelect him.
DOBBS: And he's not there in any national poll at this point, correct?
SCHNEIDER: At this point, no, he's just below it, about 48 percent. But see, even if he's 48 percent and Kerry is 44, it means most voters are not ready to say they want to reelect him.
DOBBS: All right, let's get to the yardstick that so many will who love numbers will be applying against this convention. How big a bounce should the president get out of this week's performance and presentation in New York?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there's a lot of debate. The Democrats are saying we expect an 8-point bounce, no, (UNINTELLIGIBLE), which would be typical for an incumbent in his own party's convention. That would be a little high in an election where there's so few undecided voters.
If Bush ends up at 50 percent or higher at the end of this week, then he has had a successful convention, because, frankly, there are very few swing states out there where either candidate is at 50 percent or above. One of the few is Iowa, where Kerry is just above it, at 51 percent, but most of these battleground states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio -- both candidates are in the 40s.
DOBBS: Bill Schneider, thank you.
President Bush said today said the Republican convention will deliver a positive message to voters this year. The president told supporters in New Hampshire there is no doubt he will win this election. President Bush is in a close fight, of course, with Senator Kerry in New Hampshire. Four years ago, President Bush won the Granite State by only 7,000 votes. The president speaks to the Republican convention Thursday.
The president's achievements in the global war on terror will be the centerpiece of this convention, the Republicans hoping to draw a clear distinction between the president's record of wartime leadership and what Republicans say is Senator Kerry's equivocation and hesitation.
Senior White House correspondent John King with the report. John?
JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, that campaign, that case by the Republicans, will begin tonight, those speeches by Senator McCain and former mayor Giuliani here in New York.
Some ask why are the Republicans here in this overwhelmingly Democratic city? If you look at the message the Bush campaign wants to convey, they say New York will do them just fine.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, September 2001)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can hear you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING (voice-over): It was here in New York, atop the rubble, that he found his voice and defined his new mission.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, September 2001)
BUSH: I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people -- and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Forgotten, or at least set aside back then, was the bitterness of the contested election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I will not forget the wound to our country and those who inflicted it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Three years later, the country is again very much polarized, and the shadow of 9/11 very much over a Republican convention at which the president must answer critics who say he was so bent on war in Iraq, he squandered the enormous political capital built up after the terrorist attacks.
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: No president goes around looking for wars. He would rather fix the economy, he'd rather build partnerships. But sometimes you can't look away. And President Bush refuses to look away.
KING: Critics recall the certainty with which the president spoke of weapons of mass destruction, and the with-us-or-against-us challenge to traditional allies.
DAVID ALBRIGHT, PRESIDENT, ISIS: You can't go around running a foreign policy where you accept worst-case assessments as fact that then lead to draconian actions.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The idea that if you disagree, however slightly, with the policy pursued by the Americans, you're on the other side, is a very self-defeating sort of attitude.
KING: Mr. Bush makes no apologies, asserting that in the post- 9/11 world, removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right choice.
DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: He's satisfied with the results we're getting. Has it been tough? Of course. Any war is tough. But he's been very satisfied with the progress of this war.
KING: The president, in New York to be nominated for a second term, has led a nation at war for all but seven months of his first. Afghanistan, then Iraq -- hardly the presidency he envisioned.
MICHAEL GERSON: Strong domestic agenda, education, Social Security, tax cuts, and there was an expectation that would be the drama of the first term. And then September 11 came.
KING: Three years later, a color code for terror threats, terms like "new normal," "undisclosed location," and a debate over who would best lead the war on terror for the next four years.
SEN. JOHN KERRY, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The United States of America never goes to war because we want to. We only go to war because we have to. That's the standard for our country.
BUSH: If America shows weakness and uncertainty in this decade, the world will drift toward tragedy. This will not happen on my watch.
KING: What some Republicans worry about, as this debate unfolds, is a president so defined by war he has lost the compassionate conservative label of the last campaign, and perhaps the personal connection he had in those days immediately after 9/11.
MICHAEL DEAVER, FORMER REAGAN ADVISER: They need to figure out a way to sort of complete the role of the president in wartime. We want to be able to reach in and touch and feel a president, and that is not George Bush. George Bush doesn't like that sort of thing.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Again, New York City and New York state overwhelmingly Democratic, but for the Bush campaign, especially this city, Lou, the perfect place to reach out to Americans who might not agree with every decision this president has made in the three years since 9/11, and remind them just how he became a war president in the first place, Lou.
DOBBS: And in a city that needs no reminder. John King, thank you very much.
Still ahead here tonight, the middle class squeeze. President Bush says his policies offer the best hope for working men and women in this country. Critics say those policies only hurt the already embattled middle class.
And then, an investigation of alleged spying by Israel, centering on one of this country's most powerful lobby groups. We'll have a special report on the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
And then, Republicans open their convention by praising President Bush's leadership in the war on terror. One of the president's leading supporters and one of the most powerful lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Senator Trent Lott, is my guest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: All this week, the Republican Party will be focusing in convention on what we report about nearly every night on this broadcast, the squeeze on this country's middle class. During the Democratic convention, we reported on Senator Kerry's proposals to help working men and women in this country.
This week, we report on President Bush's plans to fight the middle class squeeze and to support American workers. Tonight, we examine the Bush administration's free trade policies and their effect on American workers and their families.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS (voice-over): Don't expect to hear much about overseas outsourcing at this convention. This is the administration that said outsourcing makes sense. But you will hear this theme, that trade is good for American workers.
BUSH: I want to continue and open up markets. You see, I believe we can compete with anybody, anytime, anywhere, so long as the playing field is level. I want people eating Wisconsin corn. I want them eating Wisconsin dairy products.
VILES: There have been exceptions. When it came to protecting steel workers, the president conveniently put aside his faith in free trade.
BUSH: I thought I needed to stand up for steel, and I did stand up for steel.
VILES: But that's the exception. The president's supporters argue trade is helping American workers, and more trade will help even more.
WILLIAM MORLEY, U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: If you ask, have the U.S. trade policies been good for small business and good for workers, I'd say absolutely. The reality is, we are creating jobs in this country, 1.5 million jobs have been created over the last 10 months. Can we do better? Absolutely.
VILES: The numbers speaks for themselves. Our trade deficit is skyrocketing, on pace to hit $575 billion this year. And during the Bush administration, 2.7 million manufacturing jobs have been lost and 1.1 million jobs overall.
The president's opponents believe those trends are connected. Trade policies are destroying American jobs.
RICHARD TRUMKA, AFL-CIO: Their whole policy is geared towards exporting our jobs and importing products, rather than importing jobs and exporting our products. What they've done is, they're coring out the American capacity to defend itself and to produce for itself.
VILES: Republicans say the best way to protect American jobs is to make it cheaper to do business in this country, by reducing the cost of health care, energy, legal liability, and mainly by cutting taxes.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: But Republicans have been unable to rein in health care or energy costs over the past four years, and those costs are now hurting job creation. They've become a de facto tax on the American middle class, Lou.
DOBBS: Peter Viles, thank you.
Well, this country's economic future is certainly one of the top issues in this election. Another is our national security and the global fight against terror. Both topics will be major themes at the Republican National Convention here in New York this week.
I'm joined now by one of the most influential lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the prominent Republican, Senator Trent Lott.
Good to have you with us.
SEN. TRENT LOTT (R-MS): Glad to be with you again, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's begin following Peter Viles' report. The issue of job creation, it has not been as nearly as robust, to say it in the most generous terms, as the White House would have liked. How significant do you think the relationship is between the free-trade- at-any-cost policies that have been pursued by this administration and the previous, and the inability of this economy right now to generate jobs to keep pace with the growth of the labor force?
LOTT: It is a factor that has played into the jobs creation. I don't think you can deny that. You would be living in an ivory tower if you did. But creating more jobs is a multifaceted thing. You've got to pay attention to making sure that you've got tax policy, which is -- our tax policies haven't been good in terms of creating jobs, keeping jobs, encouraging businesses to keep their business here and bring their money back here.
DOBBS: What was the change in the tax policy from 1993 to 2004?
LOTT: Well, we had a lot of changes, but a lot of those changes were individual tax changes. They were not aimed at keeping businesses here and bringing investments back here. That's one of the things we're working on right now. I hope that we can get this -- it's the FIST-ETI (ph) tax bill, which will provide some incentives for manufacturing to stay in America.
DOBBS: Senator, what is the Republican aversion to simply saying to the American worker, We're for you, and we're not going to conduct trade policies that are mindless and have a terrible impact on you and your family? Why not, why doesn't this convention come right out and just say that? Instead, the platform says, We're going to train you, we'll retrain you, we'll educate you. But not -- but in nowhere does it say for what.
LOTT: And we'll have decent tax policies, and we need to pay attention to the cost and accessibility of health care. You've got to have the whole package, Lou.
But on trade, we have to acknowledge that we're in a global market, that we have made some decisions over the years that have not worked to our benefit. We have plenty of incentives for our own companies to go overseas, but we have to be in that market.
And I'm, I want to try to attract more industry here in my own state. We have lost garment and textile and other jobs, like picture frames. Instead, we're getting international automobile manufacturers, the Eurocopters being assembled in Mississippi. We're trying to get a British company, Bicorus (ph) Steel, in Mississippi. And so we are working it.
But I want to answer your question this way. You cannot just get into this saying, we're for free trade, and then period.
DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
LOTT: It has to be free and fair. And when I was chairman of the platform committee in 1984, fair is in there too. And that's why, when we have our trading partners that do take advantage of us, we have to be prepared to act, whether it's Canada or Japan or Mexico.
DOBBS: Well, surely Republicans and Democrats alike in Washington, D.C., can do the math. We have a trade deficit approaching $600 billion, $4 trillion, approaching $4 trillion, in external debt. You have a half a trillion dollar budget deficit. This isn't the conservative tradition, the prudent tradition, of the Republican Party. At what point do you, in convention, will you in convention address those issues?
LOTT: We won't do it in the way you're suggesting this year, but if you go back and look over the years, and if you look at, you know, how we approach these issues, you'll see that that's what we should be trying to do, and what we are going to try to do. Certainly that's been my position.
DOBBS: Another issue about which you're passionate and have worked long and hard is on the issue of intelligence reform. The president has made the first step. Senator Pat Roberts, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, says, Let's build anew. What's your view?
LOTT: I'm much closer to where Chairman Roberts is. You know, I've gotten the intelligence briefings over the years, and I've been on the Intelligence Committee for the last year and a half, and I have to tell you, Lou, I've been disappointed, and it's very unsettling.
I think we have serious problems. It's are spread all over the place. Eighty percent of the intelligence budget is in the Department of Defense, the oversight from Congress is very, very weak, almost nonexistent, to the point that we're sort of ignored by the CIA.
I think we need a major overhaul. And that's why I went on as a co-sponsor of the Roberts bill. Is it a perfect document? Can it be modulated and changed some? Certainly, it can. But I think we need to go with, you know, significant overhauls of who controls the money and what the oversight is. We have not done our job.
And by the way, Congress is a big part of the problem. We've not funded them adequately, and we have not funded them correctly in terms of where the money goes. Human intelligence, we've let it wither on the vine to almost nothing. That's why we didn't really know what the status of the weapons of mass destructions, destruction, was in Iraq.
DOBBS: Will we, will this come to pass, new legislation, reform, in this current term of Congress?
LOTT: Parts of it will, perhaps a major piece. But we've got 30 days in which to do that. We will get, I think, a new national director. I think we will have some of the reforms the president has already done by executive order. Will we do enough in 30 days? I doubt it. We didn't mess this up in 30 days. It took us really more like 30 years. I think it's going to take more than one shot to do all we need to do.
DOBBS: Senator Trent Lott, as always, good to have you here.
LOTT: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you for your candor and straightforward responses, making you unique and rare amongst those in Washington these days.
LOTT: I'm free to do that, Lou.
DOBBS: Senator, thank you.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Would you describe the 50-50 split among likely voters in this country as evidence of a divide between Republicans and Democrats? Or would you describe it as a balance of Republicans and Democrats? We'd appreciate your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.
Still ahead tonight, outrage over a spy scandal at the Pentagon. We'll have a special report tonight on charges that a Pentagon official spied for Israel. Will the help of one of this country's most influential pro-Israel lobbying groups?
And then, Republicans rally around President Bush. Congresswoman Anne Northup will be here to tell us why she says President Bush is the best candidate to create jobs in this country.
We'll talk with three of the country's top political journalists about this campaign so far. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues with more news, debate, and opinion. Here now Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Well, we've reported extensively here on the shipment of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets, what we call here the exporting of America. My guest tonight says the solution to this problem is creating better jobs in this country than the ones shipped overseas.
Congresswoman Anne Northup of Kentucky will be a featured speaker tomorrow at the Republican National Convention, a member of the House Appropriations Committee. She joins me now from Madison Square Garden, the site of the Republican National Convention here in New York.
Congresswoman, good to have you with us.
REP. ANN NORTHUP (D-KY), APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE: Nice to be with you.
DOBBS: I don't know whether you heard Senator Trent Lott and I talking about the issue of outsourcing of American jobs, the -- but let me pose the same question I did to you, at least in one instance, and that is, why is the Republican Party having such a hard time in coming to terms with the direct statement to American workers that they're going to be concerned and act in behalf of the middle class and their families, the workers and their families in this country?
NORTHUP: Gee, Lou, I'm sorry you haven't heard that message. I feel like we've been talking about that message not only with the legislation we've passed, but our message as a party. We believe that we have to create a better environment in this country to attract and keep good jobs. That means everything from keeping our tax cuts that spur the economy, to lowering the cost of health care.
We've certainly low -- had a number of initiatives in the House that have done that. The associated health policies, the health savings accounts, all of those are the only plans, only plans on the table for lowering the cost of health insurance for American workers.
We have other issues... DOBBS: Well, Congress...
NORTHUP: ... affordable and dependable sources of energy, all the things that make this...
DOBBS: Well...
NORTHUP: ... an affordable place to have good jobs.
DOBBS: Well, that's nice, I guess is the only answer I can come up with, but I haven't heard you say that -- instead, I've heard this administration say, in fact, they support the outsourcing of American jobs, support retraining and education, your own platform, adopted today, did precisely that.
I don't see that we've lost in net sum over a million jobs over the past three years in this country, while we continue to follow, just as the administration before this did, follow these free trade policies that end up with $600 billion trade deficit, a White House now, an administration and the White House that says this outsourcing is just part of international trade.
Neither policy is working. It's obvious for all to see. Why not simply embrace reality?
NORTHUP: Lou, first of all, we cannot put a fence around this country. There's going to be trade...
DOBBS: ... congresswoman...
NORTHUP: ... wait...
DOBBS: ... I'm not going to even let you say that without response. I'm not saying put a fence around any country. I believe in trade. I believe in mutual, reciprocal international trade.
NORTHUP: We all believe in trade.
DOBBS: Well, do you believe in $600 billion trade deficits, $4 trillion external debt?
NORTHUP: No, no, I don't. And the fact is that nothing we can -- we will lose more jobs if we keep increasing the costs to have good jobs stay in this country, and we do that when we raise taxes. We do that when we allow health insurance to keep going up and costs. We do that...
DOBBS: My god, Congresswoman, we've got a...
NORTHUP: ... as energy goes up in costs.
DOBBS: You've got a half -- the Republicans, the party of fiscal prudence and responsibility have generated a federal budget deficit set of $.5 trillion...
NORTHUP: No, Lou, that is a very one-sided... DOBBS: ... a trade deficit...
NORTHUP: That is a very one-sided claim. First of all, I sit on the Appropriations Committee.
DOBBS: Yes, you do.
NORTHUP: And I see Democrats that want to spend spend, spend. Even Kerry as he talks about - excuse me. As he talks about the cost of health care, his proposal is for the government to spend even more. The only way out of that deficit is to grow this...
DOBBS: May I say, Congresswoman,...
NORTHUP: ... economy.
DOBBS: May I say that you've made a statement of absolute truth. His proposals to this point amount to even more money. However, while the Republican administration is saying that they will make these tax cuts permanent, Senator Kerry is saying he will put taxes back on the top 2%. And we should point out that that will not cover based on our best calculation - I'm sorry, Congresswoman. Based on our best estimate, won't begin to cover the expenses in his proposals.
NORTHUP: Well, let me just say that nothing, nothing will get us out of these deficits except growth. That's the only thing. And the proposals to add those taxes back in will only stymie growth and make it less possible for us to not only get rid of these deficits, but to make Social Security and Medicare sustainable. You know, I think what we need is growth. We need good jobs here. We need an environment of good jobs, individual, private enterprise is going to make the decision of whether they keep good jobs in this country or go overseas.
DOBBS: Wait, wait. Are you saying...
NORTHUP: We need to keep them here.
DOBBS: ... to me as a matter of tenet in the Republican philosophy in convention here this week that you're going to leave it entirely up to corporate America to decide whether or not jobs...
NORTHUP: No, no, I'm not.
DOBBS: ... our jobs are preserved for the middle class? Is that your statement?
NORTHUP: No, it's not, and please don't misrepresent my statement.
DOBBS: I certainly would not like to.
NORTHUP: I have GE in my district. They make all of the North American appliances, washers, dryers.
DOBBS: Right. NORTHUP: They make a decision every single year what to keep in this country and to invest millions, hundreds of millions, excuse me, of new dollars in upgrading their plants. They make those decisions every year. There is nothing we can do to make it illegal for them to leave. All we can do is make it -- make energy less costly, make sure that the health insurance...
DOBBS: No, ma'am, I don't think we'd have to make it illegal.
NORTHUP: ... costs less.
DOBBS: No more than I want you to misconstruct me. Do you think that as a matter of your party's philosophy that it makes sense to permit the export of existing American jobs, putting the middle class in direct competition with cheap foreign labor, sending them to India, to Romania, to Ireland, to the Philippines --
NORTHUP: I don't want that happen.
DOBBS: Please, let me...
NORTHUP: No, sir.
DOBBS: Then if you can't stop it, what are you going to do? Because don't you think there should be some way in which to control the re-export of services and goods from a U.S. company that has killed a job in this country and created one in a cheap foreign market?
NORTHUP: Well, first of all, let me point out that in the last quarter, we exported more -- exports grew by more than imports. But the fact is that the companies in my district...
DOBBS: I'm sorry, we did what? I'm sorry, Congresswoman. I misunderstood you. We said what?
NORTHUP: Exports grew faster than imports.
DOBBS: Yes, ma'am, but they also rose in dollar terms far, far faster. Our deficit is simply out of control. The fact that a small base of exports rose faster than a large base of imports is immaterial.
NORTHUP: The fact is is that in Louisville, Kentucky, where I represent where we have fabulous jobs in manufacturing, what we have to do is make sure that we create as healthy an environment as we possibly can, so that GE and other companies will reinvest in our plants and our workers in Louisville, instead of moving those opportunities off-shore. That's the challenge that we have in this country.
DOBBS: Congresswoman?
NORTHUP: And all the new - you know, whether you want to talk about the ergonomics regulations the previous administration proposed all the new mandates on health insurance, all those things drive up the cost of every American worker. And in the end, in the end, we lose those jobs. That's why...
DOBBS: So are you saying to this audience tonight that you don't believe that those added benefits for both the protection and the welfare of the worker should be permitted in this country?
NORTHUP: Absolutely. We're working on job safety every single day, but the sort of regulations that were written by the previous administration provided extraordinary benefits for ergonomic injuries, more than -- if you cut off your finger, you didn't get the sorts of benefits they proposed for ergonomics. I'm in my late 50s, and I know that all of us begin to have aches and pains and challenges. And all of jobs have to work to eliminate those. But if you make the American workplace totally responsible for the cost of those injuries, you will chase more jobs off-shore than you do save here in this country.
DOBBS: You know, Congresswoman, I would love to continue this conversation. And forgive me, but I almost hear you saying that corporations are doing us some sort of favor keeping jobs in this country, when in point in fact, their very existence and ability to operate is based on their having been created and doing business in the richest consumer market in the world. And I think we've got, personally, Congresswoman, a little skewed perspective on the part of a number of people on this issue. Those corporations have a debt and a responsibility, corporate citizenship.
NORTHUP: And those corporations are trying to compete internationally. And they have to compete both in quality and in price. And if you push the cost of all those jobs up, they will be unable to compete internationally. That's a reality in Louisville right now.
DOBBS: Well, let's go to the reality then. Basic question, then, do you believe then if the price of assuring U.S. multinational competitiveness is their ability to go to the cheapest possible labor anywhere in the developing world, cheap foreign labor, and kill an American job, that that is just fine?
NORTHUP: Of course, it's not fine. Of course, it's not fine. And our challenge is to make sure that, number one, that we continue to compete in the international marketplace and that we continue to compete for jobs in this country. And we're trying to do both of those things by creating more opportunities to sell abroad and more opportunities to grow and make things here. And our service sector is exporting six times the number of dollars and jobs than it's importing. We need to grow those things.
DOBBS: Congresswoman, our surplus and services has declined by 40% over the last three years and continues now to dwindle. In point of fact, we have no surplus overall. A $600 billion deficit is what we've generated. Congresswoman, we thank you very much.
NORTHUP: Well, the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) is that it has a lot of factors to it.
DOBBS: Yes, ma'am. There's no question about it.
NORTHUP: It's not just our jobs.
DOBBS: No question about it. And we appreciate you being here. Congresswoman Ann Northup, thank you.
NORTHUP: Sure.
DOBBS: New developments tonight in the investigation of a possible Israeli spy at the Pentagon. CNN has learned that the FBI became suspicious of a Pentagon analyst doing a larger investigation of a possible Israeli espionage ring. The analyst is suspected of passing a draft presidential directive on Iran to the American-Israel public affairs committee. That group is one of the most influential lobbyists in all of Washington. Lisa Sylvester reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The American- Israel public affairs committee, or AIPAC, is one of the most powerful lobbying groups in the country ranking by Fortune Magazine as more influential than the AFL-CIO or the chamber of commerce. In 2000, the group spent more than $1 million in lobbying. It also directed many of the pro-Israel political action committees, which made $6.5 million in campaign contributions that year, two-thirds to Democrats, and a third to Republicans.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They certainly do have clout, particularly on the Hill. In some cases, they have created what some have referred to as a climate of intimidation for those who challenge it.
SYLVESTER: Israel's lobbying influence also extends to the Pentagon. Douglas Feith, the number three civilian behind Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is known as a pro-Israeli neo-conservative. Feith and former defense official Richard Perle have long opposed Israel giving up land in exchange for peace with the Palestinians. Douglas Feith's name came up this weekend because he is also the boss of the man accused of being a mole for Israel. Critics say Feith and other neo-conservatives in the Pentagon have been pushing a pro-Israel agenda, including the war with Iraq. Feith's harshest critics accuse him of manipulating evidence of Iraq's reported weapons of mass destruction and alleged ties to al Qaeda.
ANDREW KILLGORE, PUBLISHER, WRMEA: He had a private, little private intelligence organization called office of special plans where they cherry-picked the most outlandish pieces of intelligence they could find.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: But the timing of the spying allegations and alleged role of the American-Israel public affairs committee has raised eyebrows. With the news breaking before the Republican National Convention, some Israeli analysts see it as a chance for the president's war critics to get in one last jab. The American-Israel public affairs committee has called the allegations of its role in the alleged spying false and baseless. And many Middle Eastern experts note that the lobbying group has such close ties to the State Department and White House that it could have easily obtained information through legitimate channels -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Lisa Sylvester.
The Bush administration's policy in the Middle East and the war in Iraq, key issues in this campaign, of course. Joining me are three of the country's top political journalists, Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent, "Time" magazine, Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News and World Report," Ron Brownstein, national political correspondent, "Los Angeles Times," joining us tonight from Madison Square Garden. Good to have you all here in the Big Apple.
Karen, let me begin with you. You heard Lisa Sylvester's report. How serious is this issue with the alleged spying for Israel?
KAREN TUMULTY, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, TIME MAGAZINE: Well, in political terms, it could be very serious, because one of this administration's major goals has been reaching out to the, to the Jewish vote in this country. It has been strengthening our ties with Israel. And this is exactly the kind of news that they do not want to hear at this particular moment when the president has come to New York to have a convention here, to particularly stress his national security credentials.
DOBBS: And, Ron, let me ask you, is the idea that it's a contrivance on the part of the political rivals of the Republican Party and this president, what is your judgment on that?
RON BROWNSTEIN, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, LOS ANGELES TIMES: I'd say on the other hand, I'm not sure this really affects the campaign very much, because Israel falls into the category of issues where John Kerry has chosen not to differentiate himself hardly at all, if at all from President Bush. Earlier this year when the president wrote that letter to Ariel Sharon and gave him those two very controversial assurances that any final agreement would not involve a right of return to Israel for Palestinians, that would not involve a return to the 1947 borders, John Kerry -- there was a lot of controversy about that. John Kerry endorsed it. The Democratic platform endorses it. I think this is an issue where they don't want to have any difference with the president. And I'd be surprised if they went in any way in a sort of critical direction on Israel. And so, if neither side is arguing, you don't have much of a campaign dispute.
DOBBS: Roger?
ROGER SIMON, POLITICAL EDITOR, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: Well, if I could disagree just slightly with Ron on the political impact. If this story turns out to be true, this is the Bush Pentagon with a mole in it, and that has political implications. It doesn't matter what our policy toward Israel is, it's that we've allowed a spy in our midst. And that's going to have a significant down-side if it turns out to be true. As Karen said, this is not the story that George Bush wanted to be breaking at the beginning of his convention. We spy on our allies. Our allies spy on us. But the first rule is don't get caught. DOBBS: Another rule is don't misspeak, as some are judging the president to have done say in an interview with NBC's Matt Lauer saying that the United States cannot win the war on terror. Karen, your response?
TUMULTY: Well, the president was certainly trying to manage expectations here. And as he has so often -- you know, this idea that when people put a deadline on anything with this president, he's learned from, especially from the -- what we have been through in Iraq, that always comes back to get him in the end, so I think in his effort to slip out of that track, he may find himself in another sound byte that could also hurt him.
BROWNSTEIN: Can I defend the president on this one, Lou?
DOBBS: Absolutely.
BROWNSTEIN: My now colleague, former editor of the "New Republic," Michael Kinsley once said, "In Washington, a gaff is when you tell the truth, what everybody knows." And the reality is the war on terror, if we think about terror, is a condition. It is not really a war as in a war in the sense of the war on drugs or the war on crime or war on poverty. It's not realistic that we're ever going to eradicate the planet of people who hate us and want to do us ill and pose a threat. And I think the president was acknowledging that honestly to the American people that this is a world we're going to have to live in for a very long time. It may not always be a hot war as it is now, but it's going to be an ongoing condition. And he basically said what everybody deep down, I think, knows to be true.
TUMULTY: Except that he has repeatedly said in the past we are winning. I mean, in the...
BROWNSTEIN: You can be winning and have it not go away. I mean, the thought that...
DOBBS: Can you win something, Roger, that is not winnable?
BROWNSTEIN: You can improve the situation.
SIMON: Ron's essential point, I think, is correct. The president did speak the truth. He just spoke it very, very badly and in a way that handed his opponent a weapon. What he meant to say was, in the world today no one is 100 percent safe, no one is 100 percent secure. Then he could have gone on to say, however, we are going to disrupt and destroy those terrorists who would attack our homeland and that would attack us around the world, and that is what I as commander-in-chief and president am going to continue to do.
BROWNSTEIN: You can make progress on the problems even if you can't make them go away, poverty, crime, drugs, anything. Terror, I think, falls in that category.
DOBBS: Well, if I may say, your conclusion that the war against radical Islamist terror is not winnable is one that I'm sure will leave chills throughout the souls of a lot of Americans. I'm sorry? BROWNSTEIN: I'm not saying it's not -- to say winnable means to eradicate the threat in the sense of destroying Hitler's Germany or imperial Japan. I don't think it's that kind of problem, Lou, but that doesn't mean that we can't be safer than we are today or that the president would argue that we're safer already than we were on September 12th.
DOBBS: Yes. Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: You can improve the situation. To say you're going to make it go away is like to say you're going to make the war on drugs, you're going to make drugs go away.
DOBBS: Yes, but I think to your earlier point, one is a condition. In this case, we have real enemies with real faces with blood and souls who mean to destroy us. They don't just mean us ill. Let me ask you this, what can we expect, Karen, tonight from the two prime-time speakers?
TUMULTY: Well, this is security night. I mean, you will hear a lot of hearkening back to 9-11 and a lot of getting to this very issue that we've been discussing, which is, are you safer now than you were? And so, bringing out Rudy Giuliani, the icon of 9-11 is exactly where you want to go to make that message.
DOBBS: And that is where we are. We're fresh out of time. I want to say, Karen, thank you very much. Roger, Simon, thank you. Ron, we're going to have an opportunity to discuss this convention throughout the week. We thank the three of you for being here. Appreciate it.
Still ahead tonight, millions of illegal aliens in California one step closer to obtaining driver's licenses, or are they? We'll have that report and Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo takes on his party over its immigration policies. Congressman Tancredo is our guest next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: California lawmakers approved a bill that would permit driver's licenses for the state's 2 million illegal aliens. Even though Governor Schwarzenegger promises a veto, that issue is far from concluded. Casey Wian reports from Los Angeles.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): California lawmakers waited until the last minutes of this year's legislative session to narrowly pass a controversial law allowing illegal aliens to apply for driver's licenses in the state.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're very proud of the bill. We've worked hard to meet all the concerns of the governor.
WIAN: But almost immediately, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's office said he would veto the bill because it did not include a mark to distinguish illegal aliens from legal residents and because foreign identification documents are too easily falsified. Supporters of the bill are taking to the streets in an effort to persuade the governor to change his mind.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're going to put more money into the economy of California, because we're going to be able to buy insurance.
WIAN: There's an outside chance the bill could become law even without the governor's blessing, that's because he's in New York at the Republican National Convention, leaving Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante in charge of the state with the power to sign legislation into law.
TONY STRICKLAND, CALIFORNIA STATE ASSEMBLY: If Lieutenant Governor Bustamante signed that bill, there would be an immediate referendum and the people of California would be very angry, they'll rise up and they'll repeal this law themselves.
WIAN: Bustamante did not return calls, but a spokesman told the Los Angeles Times that signing the bill with the governor out of town calls for an extreme amount of speculation. Meanwhile, the conservative wing of the state Republican Party has organized a ballot proposition campaign to deny both driver's licenses and state-funded social services to illegal aliens. Eighteen states allow illegal aliens to have driver's licenses. But in Mexico where most illegal aliens come from, foreigners must first prove they're legal residents of that country before they can obtain a license.
Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Allowing driver's licenses for illegal aliens is just one of the elements of the national immigration policy that my next guest strongly opposes. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado is in New York City here tonight trying to change the Republican approach to the policy of immigration saying the current platform is filled with nothing but platitudes and pandering. Congressman Tancredo joins me now. Good to have you here, Congressman.
REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: Great to be here in person with you for once.
DOBBS: It is usually by remote from Washington.
TANCREDO: That's right. That's right.
DOBBS: You're concerned, obviously, about immigration issues. But your party is not responding at all, looking at the platform, basically continuing the guest worker program and offering perhaps too little for most activists in immigration reform.
TANCREDO: For most Americans, Lou.
DOBBS: Right. TANCREDO: That's what drives me crazy about this whole issue. It is not as if I'm asking the president and my party to take a position that is antithetical to what the people of this country want. Every single poll for the last decade would indicate that our position on this issue is the position of the American people. And yet we continue to essentially spit in their eye.
DOBBS: Well, let's go through a few of the issues. Amongst them, totalization, providing Social Security benefits to illegal aliens.
TANCREDO: Yes, Yes. I tried an amendment to the platform to say we will not approve of totalization. We will not provide...
DOBBS: You should explain.
TANCREDO: OK. Totalization is a term that applies to an arrangement, a treaty arrangement between countries whereby their nationals working in our country would get benefit to our social security, our nationals working in their country would get benefit of their social security. It's just a treaty arrangement. We've got it with about 20 countries.
DOBBS: The result is six quarters.
TANCREDO: Here's the difference with the one we have agreed to. The president has agreed to with Mexico is that anyone working here illegally would have the benefit of our Social Security system and would be able to access it after only six quarters of work, as opposed to 40 for you and me.
DOBBS: Forty quarters versus six for an illegal alien?
TANCREDO: Exactly.
DOBBS: In terms of driver's licenses,...
TANCREDO: I tried again. I tried to amend the platform to say encourage states, just encourage states not to accept it. Failed. My own governor opposed it.
DOBBS: And in the broader sense, the guest worker program, the idea of giving amnesty to illegal aliens, you mentioned the poll, the party's response?
TANCREDO: The party's response was we're going to do it anyway.
DOBBS: And the differentiation between Republicans and Democrats on immigration on these?
TANCREDO: They want to do it a lot quicker. That's the only thing I can think of, Lou.
DOBBS: OK. Congressman Tom Tancredo, keep up the good fight.
TANCREDO: I will do it, sir.
DOBBS: We thank you for being here.
TANCREDO: It's a pleasures, as always.
DOBBS: We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Now the results of our poll -- 92 percent of you would describe the 50/50 split among likely voters as evidence of a divide between Republicans and Democrats. Only 8 percent of you say it's a balance, Republicans and Democrats. Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us tomorrow. Pat Buchanan will be here to talk about his new book, "Where the Right Went Wrong." Democratic Congressman Harold Ford joins us to tell us why he believes this country's leadership has changed. For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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Aired August 30, 2004 - 18:00 ET
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LOU DOBBS, HOST: Tonight, Republicans launch their national convention in New York's Madison Square Garden, trying to appeal to independent voters while rallying the party.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We will leave here with momentum that will carry us to victory in November.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: We'll have complete coverage of the convention and the platform the Republicans approved today. Senator Trent Lott joins me to talk about national security. Congresswoman Ann Northrup will be here to discuss international trade and exporting America.
Also tonight. what could be a pivotal issue in this presidential election, the middle-class squeeze. The president's critics say his trade policies are destroying American jobs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Their whole policy is geared towards exporting our jobs and importing products.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Scandal in the Pentagon. Tonight, the investigation of an alleged Israeli spy, one of this country's most powerful lobby groups, and the neoconservatives who helped shape the country's Iraq war policies.
And in broken borders tonight, California lawmakers vote in favor of driver's licenses for illegal aliens. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger promises to veto the legislation. Tonight a Republican congressman who's critical of his party's position on immigration, Congresswoman Tom Tancredo, is my guest.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, August 30. Here now, for an hour of news, debate, and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Republicans launched their national convention in New York City today, declaring President Bush to be one of this country's greatest leaders ever. Top Republicans praised President Bush for his aggressive response to the September 11 attacks and his wartime leadership.
President Bush also won the support of two prominent liberals, former New York City mayor Ed Koch and actor Ron Silver. Tonight, Senator John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani will deliver prime-time speeches saluting the president's achievements.
We begin our coverage tonight with Judy Woodruff, host of our "INSIDE POLITICS," at Madison Square Garden. Judy?
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": Good evening, Lou.
Yes, it is finally under way. You could say we've known ever since George W. Bush took office that he was going to be running for a second term. But today, his name was formally placed in nomination.
You know, Republicans have spent millions of dollars, put countless hours of energy into making this convention the perfect launch for the Bush-Cheney fall campaign. And now. with strategists feeling a little wind at their backs, feeling good about the late public opinion polls, feeling they've energized their conservative base, now their main goal is to reach out to independent voters and persuadables, and that explains the two star speakers tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOODRUFF (voice-over): John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, often at odds with their own party, tonight united in support of its standard bearer.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: ... for the president of the United States, George W. Bush.
WOODRUFF: Top draws on the campaign trail, working tirelessly to promote the president, particularly notable for two men with careers punctuated by clashes with the Republican establishment. McCain insists there is no lingering bitterness from the bruising primary of 2000.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, 1994)
MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI (R), NEW YORK CITY: ... that Mario Cuomo would be a far better governor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WOODRUFF: Giuliani, who ran for mayor on a fusion ticket with two Democrats, has put his 1994 stunning endorsement of Democrat Mario Cuomo far behind him.
Still, the former New York mayor and his long-time friend, the Arizona senator, haven't been party-line people. They've broken with the GOP on issues like gay marriage and campaign finance. But that is a large part of their appeal. The call-it-as-they-see-it style has served them well. Their compelling life stories give their words weight.
Giuliani's 9/11 credibility adds heft to his critique of John Kerry as...
GIULIANI: Senator Kerry voted against it, as did Senator Edwards, only among four senators who had voted for the war and against the appropriation.
WOODRUFF: McCain's heroism as a prisoner of war lends depth to his praise of the president.
MCCAIN: This president, on September 11, rose to lead this nation with moral strength and with clarity...
WOODRUFF: In a sense, this campaign has tamed the two famously pugnacious pols, perhaps collecting chits for future White House runs.
McCain and Giuliani try not to talk about it, but it's clear the show is far from over for these maverick stars of the political stage.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WOODRUFF: Far from over, and that's why they are so pleased to be playing a big role on the first night of this convention, winning points with delegates who are here tonight, all this week, and who may well return for future Republican conventions, Lou.
DOBBS: Well, first, Judy, we are -- we have another four days to get through this one, and I know that you and Wolf Blitzer will be leading the way, so we look forward to that.
The big challenge, of course, for Republicans is to win over undecided voters in battleground states. The Republicans hope their convention will soften the party's conservative image among those critical swing voters.
Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now. Bill?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I have a list of all the undecided voters right here in my pockets, I have their telephone numbers. They're very small in number. I'm going to call every one of them. I'm going to ask them, what's up with you?
DOBBS: Bill, the issue for most of the money that is being spent here is how to reach them. Are they -- are these parties, both Democrats and Republicans, are there any signs that they're being successful, with all of the money that both parties are spending?
SCHNEIDER: Most of these undecided voters, particularly in the swing states, are tuned out of politics. They don't pay a lot of attention. Parties spend a lot of money trying to reach them, but there's no indication yet that they have swung in a decisive direction one way or the other. They often don't make up their minds until the very last minute, which is why elections like this are typically down to the wire. DOBBS: Reports that in at least three states the president -- battleground states, the president has made a sizable move and actually has a improved position against Senator Kerry. What can you tell us about that tonight?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there is an -- there are indications that in Pennsylvania, the race is tied. President Bush has campaigned hard there. Wisconsin, that was a Gore state in 2000. The president may be a few points ahead. Kerry is ahead in Iowa, but only narrowly, by about six points. That's within the margin of error.
All of these are former Gore states that Kerry has to keep in order to win this election. And the indications are, Kerry's in some trouble there. There's some momentum for Bush, not huge momentum, but look, if this convention works the way the Republicans want, and Bush gets a little bit of a bounce and gets over 50 percent, he can breathe a little bit easier. He's the incumbent, and an incumbent has to get over 50 percent to feel as if people are ready to reelect him.
DOBBS: And he's not there in any national poll at this point, correct?
SCHNEIDER: At this point, no, he's just below it, about 48 percent. But see, even if he's 48 percent and Kerry is 44, it means most voters are not ready to say they want to reelect him.
DOBBS: All right, let's get to the yardstick that so many will who love numbers will be applying against this convention. How big a bounce should the president get out of this week's performance and presentation in New York?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there's a lot of debate. The Democrats are saying we expect an 8-point bounce, no, (UNINTELLIGIBLE), which would be typical for an incumbent in his own party's convention. That would be a little high in an election where there's so few undecided voters.
If Bush ends up at 50 percent or higher at the end of this week, then he has had a successful convention, because, frankly, there are very few swing states out there where either candidate is at 50 percent or above. One of the few is Iowa, where Kerry is just above it, at 51 percent, but most of these battleground states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio -- both candidates are in the 40s.
DOBBS: Bill Schneider, thank you.
President Bush said today said the Republican convention will deliver a positive message to voters this year. The president told supporters in New Hampshire there is no doubt he will win this election. President Bush is in a close fight, of course, with Senator Kerry in New Hampshire. Four years ago, President Bush won the Granite State by only 7,000 votes. The president speaks to the Republican convention Thursday.
The president's achievements in the global war on terror will be the centerpiece of this convention, the Republicans hoping to draw a clear distinction between the president's record of wartime leadership and what Republicans say is Senator Kerry's equivocation and hesitation.
Senior White House correspondent John King with the report. John?
JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, that campaign, that case by the Republicans, will begin tonight, those speeches by Senator McCain and former mayor Giuliani here in New York.
Some ask why are the Republicans here in this overwhelmingly Democratic city? If you look at the message the Bush campaign wants to convey, they say New York will do them just fine.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, September 2001)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can hear you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING (voice-over): It was here in New York, atop the rubble, that he found his voice and defined his new mission.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, September 2001)
BUSH: I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people -- and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Forgotten, or at least set aside back then, was the bitterness of the contested election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I will not forget the wound to our country and those who inflicted it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Three years later, the country is again very much polarized, and the shadow of 9/11 very much over a Republican convention at which the president must answer critics who say he was so bent on war in Iraq, he squandered the enormous political capital built up after the terrorist attacks.
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: No president goes around looking for wars. He would rather fix the economy, he'd rather build partnerships. But sometimes you can't look away. And President Bush refuses to look away.
KING: Critics recall the certainty with which the president spoke of weapons of mass destruction, and the with-us-or-against-us challenge to traditional allies.
DAVID ALBRIGHT, PRESIDENT, ISIS: You can't go around running a foreign policy where you accept worst-case assessments as fact that then lead to draconian actions.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The idea that if you disagree, however slightly, with the policy pursued by the Americans, you're on the other side, is a very self-defeating sort of attitude.
KING: Mr. Bush makes no apologies, asserting that in the post- 9/11 world, removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right choice.
DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: He's satisfied with the results we're getting. Has it been tough? Of course. Any war is tough. But he's been very satisfied with the progress of this war.
KING: The president, in New York to be nominated for a second term, has led a nation at war for all but seven months of his first. Afghanistan, then Iraq -- hardly the presidency he envisioned.
MICHAEL GERSON: Strong domestic agenda, education, Social Security, tax cuts, and there was an expectation that would be the drama of the first term. And then September 11 came.
KING: Three years later, a color code for terror threats, terms like "new normal," "undisclosed location," and a debate over who would best lead the war on terror for the next four years.
SEN. JOHN KERRY, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The United States of America never goes to war because we want to. We only go to war because we have to. That's the standard for our country.
BUSH: If America shows weakness and uncertainty in this decade, the world will drift toward tragedy. This will not happen on my watch.
KING: What some Republicans worry about, as this debate unfolds, is a president so defined by war he has lost the compassionate conservative label of the last campaign, and perhaps the personal connection he had in those days immediately after 9/11.
MICHAEL DEAVER, FORMER REAGAN ADVISER: They need to figure out a way to sort of complete the role of the president in wartime. We want to be able to reach in and touch and feel a president, and that is not George Bush. George Bush doesn't like that sort of thing.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Again, New York City and New York state overwhelmingly Democratic, but for the Bush campaign, especially this city, Lou, the perfect place to reach out to Americans who might not agree with every decision this president has made in the three years since 9/11, and remind them just how he became a war president in the first place, Lou.
DOBBS: And in a city that needs no reminder. John King, thank you very much.
Still ahead here tonight, the middle class squeeze. President Bush says his policies offer the best hope for working men and women in this country. Critics say those policies only hurt the already embattled middle class.
And then, an investigation of alleged spying by Israel, centering on one of this country's most powerful lobby groups. We'll have a special report on the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
And then, Republicans open their convention by praising President Bush's leadership in the war on terror. One of the president's leading supporters and one of the most powerful lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Senator Trent Lott, is my guest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: All this week, the Republican Party will be focusing in convention on what we report about nearly every night on this broadcast, the squeeze on this country's middle class. During the Democratic convention, we reported on Senator Kerry's proposals to help working men and women in this country.
This week, we report on President Bush's plans to fight the middle class squeeze and to support American workers. Tonight, we examine the Bush administration's free trade policies and their effect on American workers and their families.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS (voice-over): Don't expect to hear much about overseas outsourcing at this convention. This is the administration that said outsourcing makes sense. But you will hear this theme, that trade is good for American workers.
BUSH: I want to continue and open up markets. You see, I believe we can compete with anybody, anytime, anywhere, so long as the playing field is level. I want people eating Wisconsin corn. I want them eating Wisconsin dairy products.
VILES: There have been exceptions. When it came to protecting steel workers, the president conveniently put aside his faith in free trade.
BUSH: I thought I needed to stand up for steel, and I did stand up for steel.
VILES: But that's the exception. The president's supporters argue trade is helping American workers, and more trade will help even more.
WILLIAM MORLEY, U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: If you ask, have the U.S. trade policies been good for small business and good for workers, I'd say absolutely. The reality is, we are creating jobs in this country, 1.5 million jobs have been created over the last 10 months. Can we do better? Absolutely.
VILES: The numbers speaks for themselves. Our trade deficit is skyrocketing, on pace to hit $575 billion this year. And during the Bush administration, 2.7 million manufacturing jobs have been lost and 1.1 million jobs overall.
The president's opponents believe those trends are connected. Trade policies are destroying American jobs.
RICHARD TRUMKA, AFL-CIO: Their whole policy is geared towards exporting our jobs and importing products, rather than importing jobs and exporting our products. What they've done is, they're coring out the American capacity to defend itself and to produce for itself.
VILES: Republicans say the best way to protect American jobs is to make it cheaper to do business in this country, by reducing the cost of health care, energy, legal liability, and mainly by cutting taxes.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: But Republicans have been unable to rein in health care or energy costs over the past four years, and those costs are now hurting job creation. They've become a de facto tax on the American middle class, Lou.
DOBBS: Peter Viles, thank you.
Well, this country's economic future is certainly one of the top issues in this election. Another is our national security and the global fight against terror. Both topics will be major themes at the Republican National Convention here in New York this week.
I'm joined now by one of the most influential lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the prominent Republican, Senator Trent Lott.
Good to have you with us.
SEN. TRENT LOTT (R-MS): Glad to be with you again, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's begin following Peter Viles' report. The issue of job creation, it has not been as nearly as robust, to say it in the most generous terms, as the White House would have liked. How significant do you think the relationship is between the free-trade- at-any-cost policies that have been pursued by this administration and the previous, and the inability of this economy right now to generate jobs to keep pace with the growth of the labor force?
LOTT: It is a factor that has played into the jobs creation. I don't think you can deny that. You would be living in an ivory tower if you did. But creating more jobs is a multifaceted thing. You've got to pay attention to making sure that you've got tax policy, which is -- our tax policies haven't been good in terms of creating jobs, keeping jobs, encouraging businesses to keep their business here and bring their money back here.
DOBBS: What was the change in the tax policy from 1993 to 2004?
LOTT: Well, we had a lot of changes, but a lot of those changes were individual tax changes. They were not aimed at keeping businesses here and bringing investments back here. That's one of the things we're working on right now. I hope that we can get this -- it's the FIST-ETI (ph) tax bill, which will provide some incentives for manufacturing to stay in America.
DOBBS: Senator, what is the Republican aversion to simply saying to the American worker, We're for you, and we're not going to conduct trade policies that are mindless and have a terrible impact on you and your family? Why not, why doesn't this convention come right out and just say that? Instead, the platform says, We're going to train you, we'll retrain you, we'll educate you. But not -- but in nowhere does it say for what.
LOTT: And we'll have decent tax policies, and we need to pay attention to the cost and accessibility of health care. You've got to have the whole package, Lou.
But on trade, we have to acknowledge that we're in a global market, that we have made some decisions over the years that have not worked to our benefit. We have plenty of incentives for our own companies to go overseas, but we have to be in that market.
And I'm, I want to try to attract more industry here in my own state. We have lost garment and textile and other jobs, like picture frames. Instead, we're getting international automobile manufacturers, the Eurocopters being assembled in Mississippi. We're trying to get a British company, Bicorus (ph) Steel, in Mississippi. And so we are working it.
But I want to answer your question this way. You cannot just get into this saying, we're for free trade, and then period.
DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
LOTT: It has to be free and fair. And when I was chairman of the platform committee in 1984, fair is in there too. And that's why, when we have our trading partners that do take advantage of us, we have to be prepared to act, whether it's Canada or Japan or Mexico.
DOBBS: Well, surely Republicans and Democrats alike in Washington, D.C., can do the math. We have a trade deficit approaching $600 billion, $4 trillion, approaching $4 trillion, in external debt. You have a half a trillion dollar budget deficit. This isn't the conservative tradition, the prudent tradition, of the Republican Party. At what point do you, in convention, will you in convention address those issues?
LOTT: We won't do it in the way you're suggesting this year, but if you go back and look over the years, and if you look at, you know, how we approach these issues, you'll see that that's what we should be trying to do, and what we are going to try to do. Certainly that's been my position.
DOBBS: Another issue about which you're passionate and have worked long and hard is on the issue of intelligence reform. The president has made the first step. Senator Pat Roberts, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, says, Let's build anew. What's your view?
LOTT: I'm much closer to where Chairman Roberts is. You know, I've gotten the intelligence briefings over the years, and I've been on the Intelligence Committee for the last year and a half, and I have to tell you, Lou, I've been disappointed, and it's very unsettling.
I think we have serious problems. It's are spread all over the place. Eighty percent of the intelligence budget is in the Department of Defense, the oversight from Congress is very, very weak, almost nonexistent, to the point that we're sort of ignored by the CIA.
I think we need a major overhaul. And that's why I went on as a co-sponsor of the Roberts bill. Is it a perfect document? Can it be modulated and changed some? Certainly, it can. But I think we need to go with, you know, significant overhauls of who controls the money and what the oversight is. We have not done our job.
And by the way, Congress is a big part of the problem. We've not funded them adequately, and we have not funded them correctly in terms of where the money goes. Human intelligence, we've let it wither on the vine to almost nothing. That's why we didn't really know what the status of the weapons of mass destructions, destruction, was in Iraq.
DOBBS: Will we, will this come to pass, new legislation, reform, in this current term of Congress?
LOTT: Parts of it will, perhaps a major piece. But we've got 30 days in which to do that. We will get, I think, a new national director. I think we will have some of the reforms the president has already done by executive order. Will we do enough in 30 days? I doubt it. We didn't mess this up in 30 days. It took us really more like 30 years. I think it's going to take more than one shot to do all we need to do.
DOBBS: Senator Trent Lott, as always, good to have you here.
LOTT: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you for your candor and straightforward responses, making you unique and rare amongst those in Washington these days.
LOTT: I'm free to do that, Lou.
DOBBS: Senator, thank you.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Would you describe the 50-50 split among likely voters in this country as evidence of a divide between Republicans and Democrats? Or would you describe it as a balance of Republicans and Democrats? We'd appreciate your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.
Still ahead tonight, outrage over a spy scandal at the Pentagon. We'll have a special report tonight on charges that a Pentagon official spied for Israel. Will the help of one of this country's most influential pro-Israel lobbying groups?
And then, Republicans rally around President Bush. Congresswoman Anne Northup will be here to tell us why she says President Bush is the best candidate to create jobs in this country.
We'll talk with three of the country's top political journalists about this campaign so far. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues with more news, debate, and opinion. Here now Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Well, we've reported extensively here on the shipment of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets, what we call here the exporting of America. My guest tonight says the solution to this problem is creating better jobs in this country than the ones shipped overseas.
Congresswoman Anne Northup of Kentucky will be a featured speaker tomorrow at the Republican National Convention, a member of the House Appropriations Committee. She joins me now from Madison Square Garden, the site of the Republican National Convention here in New York.
Congresswoman, good to have you with us.
REP. ANN NORTHUP (D-KY), APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE: Nice to be with you.
DOBBS: I don't know whether you heard Senator Trent Lott and I talking about the issue of outsourcing of American jobs, the -- but let me pose the same question I did to you, at least in one instance, and that is, why is the Republican Party having such a hard time in coming to terms with the direct statement to American workers that they're going to be concerned and act in behalf of the middle class and their families, the workers and their families in this country?
NORTHUP: Gee, Lou, I'm sorry you haven't heard that message. I feel like we've been talking about that message not only with the legislation we've passed, but our message as a party. We believe that we have to create a better environment in this country to attract and keep good jobs. That means everything from keeping our tax cuts that spur the economy, to lowering the cost of health care.
We've certainly low -- had a number of initiatives in the House that have done that. The associated health policies, the health savings accounts, all of those are the only plans, only plans on the table for lowering the cost of health insurance for American workers.
We have other issues... DOBBS: Well, Congress...
NORTHUP: ... affordable and dependable sources of energy, all the things that make this...
DOBBS: Well...
NORTHUP: ... an affordable place to have good jobs.
DOBBS: Well, that's nice, I guess is the only answer I can come up with, but I haven't heard you say that -- instead, I've heard this administration say, in fact, they support the outsourcing of American jobs, support retraining and education, your own platform, adopted today, did precisely that.
I don't see that we've lost in net sum over a million jobs over the past three years in this country, while we continue to follow, just as the administration before this did, follow these free trade policies that end up with $600 billion trade deficit, a White House now, an administration and the White House that says this outsourcing is just part of international trade.
Neither policy is working. It's obvious for all to see. Why not simply embrace reality?
NORTHUP: Lou, first of all, we cannot put a fence around this country. There's going to be trade...
DOBBS: ... congresswoman...
NORTHUP: ... wait...
DOBBS: ... I'm not going to even let you say that without response. I'm not saying put a fence around any country. I believe in trade. I believe in mutual, reciprocal international trade.
NORTHUP: We all believe in trade.
DOBBS: Well, do you believe in $600 billion trade deficits, $4 trillion external debt?
NORTHUP: No, no, I don't. And the fact is that nothing we can -- we will lose more jobs if we keep increasing the costs to have good jobs stay in this country, and we do that when we raise taxes. We do that when we allow health insurance to keep going up and costs. We do that...
DOBBS: My god, Congresswoman, we've got a...
NORTHUP: ... as energy goes up in costs.
DOBBS: You've got a half -- the Republicans, the party of fiscal prudence and responsibility have generated a federal budget deficit set of $.5 trillion...
NORTHUP: No, Lou, that is a very one-sided... DOBBS: ... a trade deficit...
NORTHUP: That is a very one-sided claim. First of all, I sit on the Appropriations Committee.
DOBBS: Yes, you do.
NORTHUP: And I see Democrats that want to spend spend, spend. Even Kerry as he talks about - excuse me. As he talks about the cost of health care, his proposal is for the government to spend even more. The only way out of that deficit is to grow this...
DOBBS: May I say, Congresswoman,...
NORTHUP: ... economy.
DOBBS: May I say that you've made a statement of absolute truth. His proposals to this point amount to even more money. However, while the Republican administration is saying that they will make these tax cuts permanent, Senator Kerry is saying he will put taxes back on the top 2%. And we should point out that that will not cover based on our best calculation - I'm sorry, Congresswoman. Based on our best estimate, won't begin to cover the expenses in his proposals.
NORTHUP: Well, let me just say that nothing, nothing will get us out of these deficits except growth. That's the only thing. And the proposals to add those taxes back in will only stymie growth and make it less possible for us to not only get rid of these deficits, but to make Social Security and Medicare sustainable. You know, I think what we need is growth. We need good jobs here. We need an environment of good jobs, individual, private enterprise is going to make the decision of whether they keep good jobs in this country or go overseas.
DOBBS: Wait, wait. Are you saying...
NORTHUP: We need to keep them here.
DOBBS: ... to me as a matter of tenet in the Republican philosophy in convention here this week that you're going to leave it entirely up to corporate America to decide whether or not jobs...
NORTHUP: No, no, I'm not.
DOBBS: ... our jobs are preserved for the middle class? Is that your statement?
NORTHUP: No, it's not, and please don't misrepresent my statement.
DOBBS: I certainly would not like to.
NORTHUP: I have GE in my district. They make all of the North American appliances, washers, dryers.
DOBBS: Right. NORTHUP: They make a decision every single year what to keep in this country and to invest millions, hundreds of millions, excuse me, of new dollars in upgrading their plants. They make those decisions every year. There is nothing we can do to make it illegal for them to leave. All we can do is make it -- make energy less costly, make sure that the health insurance...
DOBBS: No, ma'am, I don't think we'd have to make it illegal.
NORTHUP: ... costs less.
DOBBS: No more than I want you to misconstruct me. Do you think that as a matter of your party's philosophy that it makes sense to permit the export of existing American jobs, putting the middle class in direct competition with cheap foreign labor, sending them to India, to Romania, to Ireland, to the Philippines --
NORTHUP: I don't want that happen.
DOBBS: Please, let me...
NORTHUP: No, sir.
DOBBS: Then if you can't stop it, what are you going to do? Because don't you think there should be some way in which to control the re-export of services and goods from a U.S. company that has killed a job in this country and created one in a cheap foreign market?
NORTHUP: Well, first of all, let me point out that in the last quarter, we exported more -- exports grew by more than imports. But the fact is that the companies in my district...
DOBBS: I'm sorry, we did what? I'm sorry, Congresswoman. I misunderstood you. We said what?
NORTHUP: Exports grew faster than imports.
DOBBS: Yes, ma'am, but they also rose in dollar terms far, far faster. Our deficit is simply out of control. The fact that a small base of exports rose faster than a large base of imports is immaterial.
NORTHUP: The fact is is that in Louisville, Kentucky, where I represent where we have fabulous jobs in manufacturing, what we have to do is make sure that we create as healthy an environment as we possibly can, so that GE and other companies will reinvest in our plants and our workers in Louisville, instead of moving those opportunities off-shore. That's the challenge that we have in this country.
DOBBS: Congresswoman?
NORTHUP: And all the new - you know, whether you want to talk about the ergonomics regulations the previous administration proposed all the new mandates on health insurance, all those things drive up the cost of every American worker. And in the end, in the end, we lose those jobs. That's why...
DOBBS: So are you saying to this audience tonight that you don't believe that those added benefits for both the protection and the welfare of the worker should be permitted in this country?
NORTHUP: Absolutely. We're working on job safety every single day, but the sort of regulations that were written by the previous administration provided extraordinary benefits for ergonomic injuries, more than -- if you cut off your finger, you didn't get the sorts of benefits they proposed for ergonomics. I'm in my late 50s, and I know that all of us begin to have aches and pains and challenges. And all of jobs have to work to eliminate those. But if you make the American workplace totally responsible for the cost of those injuries, you will chase more jobs off-shore than you do save here in this country.
DOBBS: You know, Congresswoman, I would love to continue this conversation. And forgive me, but I almost hear you saying that corporations are doing us some sort of favor keeping jobs in this country, when in point in fact, their very existence and ability to operate is based on their having been created and doing business in the richest consumer market in the world. And I think we've got, personally, Congresswoman, a little skewed perspective on the part of a number of people on this issue. Those corporations have a debt and a responsibility, corporate citizenship.
NORTHUP: And those corporations are trying to compete internationally. And they have to compete both in quality and in price. And if you push the cost of all those jobs up, they will be unable to compete internationally. That's a reality in Louisville right now.
DOBBS: Well, let's go to the reality then. Basic question, then, do you believe then if the price of assuring U.S. multinational competitiveness is their ability to go to the cheapest possible labor anywhere in the developing world, cheap foreign labor, and kill an American job, that that is just fine?
NORTHUP: Of course, it's not fine. Of course, it's not fine. And our challenge is to make sure that, number one, that we continue to compete in the international marketplace and that we continue to compete for jobs in this country. And we're trying to do both of those things by creating more opportunities to sell abroad and more opportunities to grow and make things here. And our service sector is exporting six times the number of dollars and jobs than it's importing. We need to grow those things.
DOBBS: Congresswoman, our surplus and services has declined by 40% over the last three years and continues now to dwindle. In point of fact, we have no surplus overall. A $600 billion deficit is what we've generated. Congresswoman, we thank you very much.
NORTHUP: Well, the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) is that it has a lot of factors to it.
DOBBS: Yes, ma'am. There's no question about it.
NORTHUP: It's not just our jobs.
DOBBS: No question about it. And we appreciate you being here. Congresswoman Ann Northup, thank you.
NORTHUP: Sure.
DOBBS: New developments tonight in the investigation of a possible Israeli spy at the Pentagon. CNN has learned that the FBI became suspicious of a Pentagon analyst doing a larger investigation of a possible Israeli espionage ring. The analyst is suspected of passing a draft presidential directive on Iran to the American-Israel public affairs committee. That group is one of the most influential lobbyists in all of Washington. Lisa Sylvester reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The American- Israel public affairs committee, or AIPAC, is one of the most powerful lobbying groups in the country ranking by Fortune Magazine as more influential than the AFL-CIO or the chamber of commerce. In 2000, the group spent more than $1 million in lobbying. It also directed many of the pro-Israel political action committees, which made $6.5 million in campaign contributions that year, two-thirds to Democrats, and a third to Republicans.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They certainly do have clout, particularly on the Hill. In some cases, they have created what some have referred to as a climate of intimidation for those who challenge it.
SYLVESTER: Israel's lobbying influence also extends to the Pentagon. Douglas Feith, the number three civilian behind Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is known as a pro-Israeli neo-conservative. Feith and former defense official Richard Perle have long opposed Israel giving up land in exchange for peace with the Palestinians. Douglas Feith's name came up this weekend because he is also the boss of the man accused of being a mole for Israel. Critics say Feith and other neo-conservatives in the Pentagon have been pushing a pro-Israel agenda, including the war with Iraq. Feith's harshest critics accuse him of manipulating evidence of Iraq's reported weapons of mass destruction and alleged ties to al Qaeda.
ANDREW KILLGORE, PUBLISHER, WRMEA: He had a private, little private intelligence organization called office of special plans where they cherry-picked the most outlandish pieces of intelligence they could find.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: But the timing of the spying allegations and alleged role of the American-Israel public affairs committee has raised eyebrows. With the news breaking before the Republican National Convention, some Israeli analysts see it as a chance for the president's war critics to get in one last jab. The American-Israel public affairs committee has called the allegations of its role in the alleged spying false and baseless. And many Middle Eastern experts note that the lobbying group has such close ties to the State Department and White House that it could have easily obtained information through legitimate channels -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Lisa Sylvester.
The Bush administration's policy in the Middle East and the war in Iraq, key issues in this campaign, of course. Joining me are three of the country's top political journalists, Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent, "Time" magazine, Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News and World Report," Ron Brownstein, national political correspondent, "Los Angeles Times," joining us tonight from Madison Square Garden. Good to have you all here in the Big Apple.
Karen, let me begin with you. You heard Lisa Sylvester's report. How serious is this issue with the alleged spying for Israel?
KAREN TUMULTY, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, TIME MAGAZINE: Well, in political terms, it could be very serious, because one of this administration's major goals has been reaching out to the, to the Jewish vote in this country. It has been strengthening our ties with Israel. And this is exactly the kind of news that they do not want to hear at this particular moment when the president has come to New York to have a convention here, to particularly stress his national security credentials.
DOBBS: And, Ron, let me ask you, is the idea that it's a contrivance on the part of the political rivals of the Republican Party and this president, what is your judgment on that?
RON BROWNSTEIN, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, LOS ANGELES TIMES: I'd say on the other hand, I'm not sure this really affects the campaign very much, because Israel falls into the category of issues where John Kerry has chosen not to differentiate himself hardly at all, if at all from President Bush. Earlier this year when the president wrote that letter to Ariel Sharon and gave him those two very controversial assurances that any final agreement would not involve a right of return to Israel for Palestinians, that would not involve a return to the 1947 borders, John Kerry -- there was a lot of controversy about that. John Kerry endorsed it. The Democratic platform endorses it. I think this is an issue where they don't want to have any difference with the president. And I'd be surprised if they went in any way in a sort of critical direction on Israel. And so, if neither side is arguing, you don't have much of a campaign dispute.
DOBBS: Roger?
ROGER SIMON, POLITICAL EDITOR, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: Well, if I could disagree just slightly with Ron on the political impact. If this story turns out to be true, this is the Bush Pentagon with a mole in it, and that has political implications. It doesn't matter what our policy toward Israel is, it's that we've allowed a spy in our midst. And that's going to have a significant down-side if it turns out to be true. As Karen said, this is not the story that George Bush wanted to be breaking at the beginning of his convention. We spy on our allies. Our allies spy on us. But the first rule is don't get caught. DOBBS: Another rule is don't misspeak, as some are judging the president to have done say in an interview with NBC's Matt Lauer saying that the United States cannot win the war on terror. Karen, your response?
TUMULTY: Well, the president was certainly trying to manage expectations here. And as he has so often -- you know, this idea that when people put a deadline on anything with this president, he's learned from, especially from the -- what we have been through in Iraq, that always comes back to get him in the end, so I think in his effort to slip out of that track, he may find himself in another sound byte that could also hurt him.
BROWNSTEIN: Can I defend the president on this one, Lou?
DOBBS: Absolutely.
BROWNSTEIN: My now colleague, former editor of the "New Republic," Michael Kinsley once said, "In Washington, a gaff is when you tell the truth, what everybody knows." And the reality is the war on terror, if we think about terror, is a condition. It is not really a war as in a war in the sense of the war on drugs or the war on crime or war on poverty. It's not realistic that we're ever going to eradicate the planet of people who hate us and want to do us ill and pose a threat. And I think the president was acknowledging that honestly to the American people that this is a world we're going to have to live in for a very long time. It may not always be a hot war as it is now, but it's going to be an ongoing condition. And he basically said what everybody deep down, I think, knows to be true.
TUMULTY: Except that he has repeatedly said in the past we are winning. I mean, in the...
BROWNSTEIN: You can be winning and have it not go away. I mean, the thought that...
DOBBS: Can you win something, Roger, that is not winnable?
BROWNSTEIN: You can improve the situation.
SIMON: Ron's essential point, I think, is correct. The president did speak the truth. He just spoke it very, very badly and in a way that handed his opponent a weapon. What he meant to say was, in the world today no one is 100 percent safe, no one is 100 percent secure. Then he could have gone on to say, however, we are going to disrupt and destroy those terrorists who would attack our homeland and that would attack us around the world, and that is what I as commander-in-chief and president am going to continue to do.
BROWNSTEIN: You can make progress on the problems even if you can't make them go away, poverty, crime, drugs, anything. Terror, I think, falls in that category.
DOBBS: Well, if I may say, your conclusion that the war against radical Islamist terror is not winnable is one that I'm sure will leave chills throughout the souls of a lot of Americans. I'm sorry? BROWNSTEIN: I'm not saying it's not -- to say winnable means to eradicate the threat in the sense of destroying Hitler's Germany or imperial Japan. I don't think it's that kind of problem, Lou, but that doesn't mean that we can't be safer than we are today or that the president would argue that we're safer already than we were on September 12th.
DOBBS: Yes. Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: You can improve the situation. To say you're going to make it go away is like to say you're going to make the war on drugs, you're going to make drugs go away.
DOBBS: Yes, but I think to your earlier point, one is a condition. In this case, we have real enemies with real faces with blood and souls who mean to destroy us. They don't just mean us ill. Let me ask you this, what can we expect, Karen, tonight from the two prime-time speakers?
TUMULTY: Well, this is security night. I mean, you will hear a lot of hearkening back to 9-11 and a lot of getting to this very issue that we've been discussing, which is, are you safer now than you were? And so, bringing out Rudy Giuliani, the icon of 9-11 is exactly where you want to go to make that message.
DOBBS: And that is where we are. We're fresh out of time. I want to say, Karen, thank you very much. Roger, Simon, thank you. Ron, we're going to have an opportunity to discuss this convention throughout the week. We thank the three of you for being here. Appreciate it.
Still ahead tonight, millions of illegal aliens in California one step closer to obtaining driver's licenses, or are they? We'll have that report and Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo takes on his party over its immigration policies. Congressman Tancredo is our guest next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: California lawmakers approved a bill that would permit driver's licenses for the state's 2 million illegal aliens. Even though Governor Schwarzenegger promises a veto, that issue is far from concluded. Casey Wian reports from Los Angeles.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): California lawmakers waited until the last minutes of this year's legislative session to narrowly pass a controversial law allowing illegal aliens to apply for driver's licenses in the state.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're very proud of the bill. We've worked hard to meet all the concerns of the governor.
WIAN: But almost immediately, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's office said he would veto the bill because it did not include a mark to distinguish illegal aliens from legal residents and because foreign identification documents are too easily falsified. Supporters of the bill are taking to the streets in an effort to persuade the governor to change his mind.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're going to put more money into the economy of California, because we're going to be able to buy insurance.
WIAN: There's an outside chance the bill could become law even without the governor's blessing, that's because he's in New York at the Republican National Convention, leaving Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante in charge of the state with the power to sign legislation into law.
TONY STRICKLAND, CALIFORNIA STATE ASSEMBLY: If Lieutenant Governor Bustamante signed that bill, there would be an immediate referendum and the people of California would be very angry, they'll rise up and they'll repeal this law themselves.
WIAN: Bustamante did not return calls, but a spokesman told the Los Angeles Times that signing the bill with the governor out of town calls for an extreme amount of speculation. Meanwhile, the conservative wing of the state Republican Party has organized a ballot proposition campaign to deny both driver's licenses and state-funded social services to illegal aliens. Eighteen states allow illegal aliens to have driver's licenses. But in Mexico where most illegal aliens come from, foreigners must first prove they're legal residents of that country before they can obtain a license.
Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Allowing driver's licenses for illegal aliens is just one of the elements of the national immigration policy that my next guest strongly opposes. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado is in New York City here tonight trying to change the Republican approach to the policy of immigration saying the current platform is filled with nothing but platitudes and pandering. Congressman Tancredo joins me now. Good to have you here, Congressman.
REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: Great to be here in person with you for once.
DOBBS: It is usually by remote from Washington.
TANCREDO: That's right. That's right.
DOBBS: You're concerned, obviously, about immigration issues. But your party is not responding at all, looking at the platform, basically continuing the guest worker program and offering perhaps too little for most activists in immigration reform.
TANCREDO: For most Americans, Lou.
DOBBS: Right. TANCREDO: That's what drives me crazy about this whole issue. It is not as if I'm asking the president and my party to take a position that is antithetical to what the people of this country want. Every single poll for the last decade would indicate that our position on this issue is the position of the American people. And yet we continue to essentially spit in their eye.
DOBBS: Well, let's go through a few of the issues. Amongst them, totalization, providing Social Security benefits to illegal aliens.
TANCREDO: Yes, Yes. I tried an amendment to the platform to say we will not approve of totalization. We will not provide...
DOBBS: You should explain.
TANCREDO: OK. Totalization is a term that applies to an arrangement, a treaty arrangement between countries whereby their nationals working in our country would get benefit to our social security, our nationals working in their country would get benefit of their social security. It's just a treaty arrangement. We've got it with about 20 countries.
DOBBS: The result is six quarters.
TANCREDO: Here's the difference with the one we have agreed to. The president has agreed to with Mexico is that anyone working here illegally would have the benefit of our Social Security system and would be able to access it after only six quarters of work, as opposed to 40 for you and me.
DOBBS: Forty quarters versus six for an illegal alien?
TANCREDO: Exactly.
DOBBS: In terms of driver's licenses,...
TANCREDO: I tried again. I tried to amend the platform to say encourage states, just encourage states not to accept it. Failed. My own governor opposed it.
DOBBS: And in the broader sense, the guest worker program, the idea of giving amnesty to illegal aliens, you mentioned the poll, the party's response?
TANCREDO: The party's response was we're going to do it anyway.
DOBBS: And the differentiation between Republicans and Democrats on immigration on these?
TANCREDO: They want to do it a lot quicker. That's the only thing I can think of, Lou.
DOBBS: OK. Congressman Tom Tancredo, keep up the good fight.
TANCREDO: I will do it, sir.
DOBBS: We thank you for being here.
TANCREDO: It's a pleasures, as always.
DOBBS: We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Now the results of our poll -- 92 percent of you would describe the 50/50 split among likely voters as evidence of a divide between Republicans and Democrats. Only 8 percent of you say it's a balance, Republicans and Democrats. Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us tomorrow. Pat Buchanan will be here to talk about his new book, "Where the Right Went Wrong." Democratic Congressman Harold Ford joins us to tell us why he believes this country's leadership has changed. For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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