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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat; America's Voting System at Risk

Aired October 11, 2004 - 18:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, it's a dead heat. President Bush and Senator Kerry are statistically tied. Both candidates today launched a final push to win votes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Our goal is not to reduce terror to some acceptable level of nuisance. Our goal is to defeat terror.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Instead of standing up for you, George Bush has chosen secret meetings with the energy industry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And Democracy at Risk. Tonight, a dramatic warning about the vulnerability of our national voting system. Is it a Third-World voting system? My guest is John Fund, author of "Stealing Our Elections."

Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana held up a massive corporate tax bill to help our Reservists and National Guard troops. She's my guest tonight.

And dozens of ordinary Americans are so frustrated with the state of our government, they've decided to run for office. Tonight, a small business owner running for Congress because he's upset about the export of American jobs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACK DAVIS, SMALL BUSINESS OWNER: I am on a mission to save American jobs, farms and industry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Tonight, we begin our week-long special report Driven to Run.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 11. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

Tonight, just 22 days before the election, President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a dead heat. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll says both candidates have 48 percent support among registered voters. Among likely voters, Senator Kerry has a 1 percent lead. These dramatic poll numbers come only two days before the third and final so-called presidential debate.

From Washington, Bill Schneider tonight reports on this latest poll; from Denver, Dana Bash reports on the Bush campaign; and from Santa Fe, New Mexico, Ed Henry covering the Kerry campaign.

To Dana Bash in Denver first -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the president's campaign's plans were for him to focus on domestic issues this week, but when Bush aides saw what they view as a Kerry gaff on terrorism, they shifted gears.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BASH (voice-over): Jumping on John Kerry's suggestion terrorism should be reduced to the level of a nuisance, the president told supporters in New Mexico the senator doesn't get it.

BUSH: Our goal is not to reduce terror to some acceptable level of nuisance. Our goal is to defeat terror by staying on the offensive, destroying terrorist networks and spreading freedom and liberty around the world.

BASH: In a state he lost by just 366 votes, Mr. Bush was seizing on a Kerry quote from this weekend's "New York Times" saying, "We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance.

"As a law-enforcement person, I know we're never going to end prostitution. We're never going to end illegal gambling," going on to say, "It's something that you continue to fight, but it's not threatening the fabric of you life."

Political manna from heaven for Bush campaign officials saying for months Senator Kerry's weakness is treating terrorism as a law- enforcement problem, not an outright war.

ANNOUNCER: How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat?

BASH: So an instant Bush ad.

RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is naive and dangerous.

BASH: And an echo from the vice president campaigning in New Jersey, a solid Kerry state until several polls showing the president gaining ground and a state that lost some 700 residents on 9/11.

CHENEY: This is all part a pre-9/11 mindset, and it is a view we cannot go back to.

BASH: Camp Kerry shot back: The president is playing the politics of fear, saying even Mr. Bush suggested over the summer, the war on terror is unwinnable.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: And Kerry aides say that Mr. Bush is twisting his words and found and just e-mailed a quote from the first President Bush's national security adviser who said a couple of years ago that an ideal would be to make terrorism a nuisance and not a paralyzing force in society.

But, Lou, the Bush campaign says that there is a difference in philosophy on these issues, one they think benefits them politically, and they intend to keep pointing it out -- Lou.

DOBBS: Dana, thank you.

Dana Bash.

Senator Kerry today launched a sweeping attack on the president's energy policy. Senator Kerry blamed rising gas prices on what he called the president's "gross mismanagement" of the Iraq War. Senator Kerry delivered his attack in New Mexico, a critically important battleground state.

Ed Henry reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: It is great to be back here in the State of Mexico while George Bush is in the state of denial.

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry's in Santa Fe for two days of preparation for Wednesday's final presidential debates. The Kerry camp is confident the Senator held his own on national security in the first two debates. Now he can pivot to his turf, the domestic agenda, the focus of the third debate in Arizona.

Kerry zeroed in Monday on energy reform, wrapping it into an overall indictment of President Bush's record here at home.

KERRY: Just like health care -- five million people lost their health care -- just like education -- millions of children left behind -- the president has more excuses than results.

And when it comes to developing a real energy policy, George Bush has run out of gas.

HENRY: But Kerry opened his remarks with an indirect reference to another domestic issue, stem cell research, by paying tribute to Christopher Reeve.

In Friday's debate, Kerry had rapped the president for not pushing harder for stem cell research and invoked the name of Reeve.

KERRY: Chris Reeve is a friend of mine. Chris Reeve exercises every single day to keep those muscles alive for the day when he believes he can walk again, and I want him to walk again.

HENRY: A Kerry aide told CNN that on Saturday the actor called Kerry. The two did not speak, but the Kerry camp says Reeve left the senator a message: It's important to keep the stem cell issue in the forefront. Reeve later went to the hospital and died.

(on camera): Kerry chose New Mexico for his debate prep in part because he so desperately needs this state's five electoral votes. Al Gore only won in 2000 by 366 votes in New Mexico, the smallest margin of any state in the country. And recent polls show, it's a dead heat again.

Ed Henry, CNN, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: And nationally, it's a dead heat, according to the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll released today. The candidates now have only three weeks left in which to convince voters they have the advantage in this election.

Our Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider has the report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): The presidential race is just about a dead heat. Is that good news for either candidate? Look at the trend.

A month ago, George W. Bush was leading John Kerry by 14 points. Just before the first debate, Bush's lead had narrowed to 8 points. After the first debate on September 30, the race was tied.

Now, after the second debate, it's Kerry 49, Bush 48. Kerry's support has gone up 9 points among likely voters over the last month. Bush has lost 6.

Here's one reason. Political interests is surging among Democrats, to the point where now, unlike a month ago, more Democrats than Republicans say they have given the election a lot of thought.

The debates are another reason. Voters overwhelmingly thought Kerry won the first debate. The second debate was seen as much closer. Viewers gave Kerry only a 2-point edge.

But look at what happened in the two days after that debate. Kerry's edge over Bush grew to 15 points. That has raised expectations for Kerry in the next debate. A majority of Americans think Kerry will did a better job in the final debate on Wednesday.

The public sees Kerry as more intelligent and Bush as stronger and more decisive. But, on one quality, there has been a noticeable shift. In early September, just after the Republican Convention, Bush had the edge as the more honest and trustworthy candidate.

After the first debate, Bush's margin narrowed. Now the two candidates are virtually tied -- Kerry 44, Bush 42. Bush's rating on honesty and trustworthiness has dropped 4 points just in the past week.

Last week's report by the Iraq survey group headed by Chief Weapons Inspector Charles Duelfer may have had an impact, especially when the president refused during the debate to acknowledge any mistakes.

BUSH: They're trying to say did you make a mistake going into Iraq, and the answer is absolutely not. It's the right decision. The Duelfer report confirmed that decision today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: All together, five national polls have come out since Friday night's debate. Three, including ours, show Kerry slightly ahead. Two show Bush slightly ahead. All five results are within the margin of error. The average: Bush 47, Kerry 47.

You know, we could be facing another long election night. The last one went on for five weeks -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Bill Schneider.

Still ahead here, scandal at the United Nations. Astonishing new revelations about the U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq. By guest is Claudia Rosett from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Landmark elections in Afghanistan. A dramatic victory for freedom, after years of radical Islamist rule. We'll have a report on the world's newest democracy.

And our own Democracy at Risk, not just from electronic voting, but also from old-fashion ballot rigging. John Fund is the author on of "Stealing Our Elections." He's my guest tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The Iraqi government today launched a new campaign to convince followers of the anti-American cleric Muqtada al Sadr to hand in weapons to police stations in exchange for money.

Iraqis in Baghdad handed in rocket-propelled grenade launchers, mortars, machine guns and assault rifles. In return, Iraqi police gave those followers of al Sadr vouchers that could be exchanged for cash. The price of each machine gun: $1,000. The price of an AK-47 assault rifle: $150.

In Afghanistan, one of this country's closest allies now on the global war on terror, President Hamid Karzai appears to have won a dramatic election victory. Millions of Afghans took part in the election just three years after the United States liberated Afghanistan from the Taliban and the al Qaeda terror network.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS (voice-over): Military helicopters transported ballot boxes to Kandahar stadium for counting, the same stadium where the Taliban once held public executions. German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder arrived in Afghanistan to offer his early congratulations to interim President Hamid Karzai.

Karzai said the elections were a victory for his war-torn nation.

HAMID KARZAI, PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN: The Afghan people went and voted, and, by voting, they have shown the defeat of terrorism and all of those who do not want peace in Afghanistan.

DOBBS: The elections were not without controversy. Several of the opposition candidates called for a boycott, claiming the process was corrupt. The controversy stemmed from a claim the ink used to mark voters' hands once they cast their ballots was not indelible.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): They said the ink was faulty, but I even did my laundry and it hasn't come off. The election must be accepted.

DOBBS: The leader of the boycott has since backed off his claim and says he will accept the findings of an independent commission that examines the results. International election officials agree.

AMB. ROBERT BARRY, OSCE: We concur with the Joint Election Management Board that the candidates' demand to nullify the election is unjustified.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We elect -- select Mr. Karzai. Yes, we are happy with Mr. Karzai.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: And, yes, now even Afghans will have to get used to exit polls. The exit polls conducted over the weekend elections forecasts now Hamid Karzai to win by a large margin, and, in just a matter of weeks, he will no longer be interim president, but president-elect of what is now internationally certified to be the world's newest democracy.

Disturbing details tonight on corruption and scandal in the United Nations oil-for-food program. A new report from the chief U.S. weapons inspector detailed corruption, which provided opportunities for Saddam Hussein's regime to make millions of dollars -- billions of dollars, in fact -- through kickbacks and smuggling.

My next guest says the oil-for-food program was, in fact, Saddam's real weapons program. She says the United Nations failed to do its job by keeping details of the oil-for-food program a complete secret.

Joining me now is Claudia Rosett. She's journalist in residence at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Claudia, good to have you here.

CLAUDIA ROSETT, FOUNDATION FOR THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: Good to be here, Lou.

DOBBS: Why do you say that the oil for food was Saddam's real weapons program?

ROSETT: Because he worked the -- he perverted the program so completely with the active cooperation of the United Nations that, in the end, he was using it to build up an entire financial network that was his arms-smuggling program.

In fact, he was using it to buy conventional arms, and it was -- there was a -- what Charles Duelfer actually found that hasn't been -- hasn't really been reported is that Saddam had a deliberate strategy to subvert oil for food, to get rid of sanctions completely, and then he had networks in place that would have enabled him to produce weapons of mass destruction in a matter of months.

DOBBS: From Duelfer's report and other reports to this extent, to this point, it's clear that Saddam had also compromised a number of our allies within the United Nations.

ROSETT: Absolutely. In fact, part of Saddam, again -- and it appears to have been deliberate -- was to buy up in various ways France, China and Russia, the three veto-wielding members of the Security Council who went through this knock-down fight, especially France and Russia, with the U.S. and the U.K.

DOBBS: Why did it take so long for the details of the corruption, the utter scandal of the U.N. oil-for-food program to come to light?

ROSETT: Most...

DOBBS: Because we're talking about billions...

ROSETT: Yes. Most...

DOBBS: ... and billions of dollars.

ROSETT: Absolutely. We're talking about $11 billion -- $10 billion to $11 billion estimated that skimmed out mostly because the United Nations kept all the details of this program secret. All we were told was that babies were being fed in Iraq. You could not even see the names of the contractors or the prices.

DOBBS: Kofi Annan, the U.N. secretary general, has brought in Paul Voelcker, a highly respected central banker almost of icon stature, to lead the investigation. Where does that investigation stand, and why have we not heard a word as a result of that investigation?

ROSETT: That investigation has been moving along at a rather slow pace from every sign we've seen. Frankly, there has been nothing that would tell us where it stands, and I think there should be more transparency from them, also.

The U.N. has functioned for so long as a black hole for any information about itself. The Voelcker investigation so far has served that same function. His report is now expected out middle of next year. That's rather down the road.

What you really need is for the U.N. even now to release the details that it still has. They aren't all in the CIA report.

DOBBS: And Kofi Annan -- why is he not being held accountable for this already clearly established example of massive corruption within the United Nations.

ROSETT: He should be held accountable. We have been operating on the assumption that because something is called a relief program, that means it's all right. It was far from all right. It was dangerous. It corrupted the United Nations. It brought arms into Iraq that may now be killing both Iraqis and our own soldiers. And it greatly corrupted actually scores of businesses worldwide who may now be liable to blackmail. The damage of this is far from over.

DOBBS: Claudia Rosett.

Thanks for being here.

ROSETT: Thank you.

DOBBS: It brings us to the subject of tonight's poll: Should the United Nations, in fact, hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for- food scandal? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have results later here in the broadcast.

Coming up next, our Democracy at Risk. Fraud, intimidation, voter manipulation rampant in our election system. John Fund the author of "Stealing Elections," and he is my next guest.

And ordinary Americans driven to run for public office out of frustration with what is happening in Washington, D.C. Tonight, small business owner Jack Davis says it's his duty to fight back against the export of American jobs.

Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVIS: Logically speaking, I shouldn't be doing it. Patriotically speaking, I have to do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs. DOBBS: My next guest says this country has what he calls a haphazard, fraud-prone election system befitting an emerging Third- World country, rather than the world's leading democracy.

John Fund is the author of "Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy," and John says our election system is lethally sloppy. John Fund is also a member of "The Wall Street Journal" editorial board, joining us tonight.

John, good to have you here.

JOHN FUND, AUTHOR, "STEALING ELECTIONS": Pleasure.

DOBBS: What you describe and what you write about in your book is chilling. The fact of the matter is these provisional ballots that were dictated look like a source of considerable fraud potentially in this election.

FUND: Well, I have a piece on opinionjournal.com today, my column, which talks about how much trouble we could get in with these. Let's say Bush is ahead 3,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and that decides election, but there are 70,000 provisional votes that have to be verified and counted. Now you're going to have some people count every vote, the Al Sharptons of the world. You're going to have other people say, well, are these...

DOBBS: Well, the Lou Dobbses of the world will say count every vote, in point of fact.

FUND: Well, yes, but every ballot is not every vote See, you have to -- some people, if they aren't registered, aren't valid voters. Some people, if they're felons -- we just found that there are 6,000 felons who aren't eligible to vote registered to vote in Colorado. So, if we have these 70,000 provisional votes, you may finish an election night here at CNN saying Bush wins Pennsylvania by 3,000 votes, but there are 70,000 provisional votes to be counted.

Now here's the rub: We've only had one election where provisional votes were the difference because this is a new phenomenon. In Colorado, it took 33 days to count all the provisional votes.

DOBBS: In New York, we know at least 46,000 voters are, well, doubly registered in New York and Florida.

FUND: And 1,700 of them requested absentee ballots. We have an honor system. Basically, if you want to cheat in this country when it comes to voting, you can.

DOBBS: In New Jersey, in Maryland, in a number of other states, you don't even need to prove you're a citizen or have it demonstrated. What do you assess the potential impact of that to be on this election itself?

FUND: It is possible to have felons, illegal aliens, people, you know, voting bulk absentee ballots, filling out names of people who don't even exist. It's a civil right to vote, but it's an equal civil right not to have your vote canceled out by someone who shouldn't be voting or doesn't even exist.

DOBBS: You point out in your book that eight -- eight, was it? -- of the 19...

FUND: Eight of the 19.

DOBBS: ... 9/11 hijackers could have registered to vote?

FUND: No, they did register to vote.

DOBBS: I mean, that's just astounding.

FUND: We have a motor voter law. You do any business with the government, you practically automatically get registered to vote. It's an honor system. We -- in a close election where passions are running so high, there are going to be some people who want to put their thumb on the scale, and we can't trust an honor system anymore.

DOBBS: What do we do?

FUND: Well, first of all, photo I.D. Why in the world do we have a system to show photo I.D. to board a plane, to rent a video at a Blockbuster, but not to vote?

DOBBS: Well, why do we have a situation in this country where anyone can get a driver's license which is prima face evidence of citizenship?

FUND: Well, a lot of people say doing anything to prevent voter fraud and getting people from getting a driver's license discriminates against minorities. I don't think minorities want their votes canceled out by having people who shouldn't be voting either. So...

DOBBS: Sure.

FUND: Exactly. So photo I.D. would be a start. We also need to clean up our registration rolls. This motor voter roll means that 15 percent to 20 percent of the people registered on a roll, they don't exist.

DOBBS: And how many people do you estimate will be voting by absentee ballot this year?

FUND: Up to 30 percent, and that is the way you commit fraud because it's a paper ballot outside of government scrutiny.

DOBBS: John, we're reporting here on what we call Democracy at Risk. Your book, "Stealing Elections," certainly is no reassurance to all of us here, and I think it's an important read for everyone watching the broadcast. Hopefully -- hopefully -- it will not presage what we are going to experience on November 2.

FUND: I don't want Election Day to become Election Month.

DOBBS: Or worse.

John Fund, thank you.

FUND: Thank you.

DOBBS: Taking a look now at some of your thoughts. We've been reporting extensively here on the risk to our democracy because of flaws in voting systems in a number of states.

Greg in Redondo Beach, California, wrote in to say, "It seems that we'll have to wait until Election Day to know about the integrity of the nation's voting system. This is incomprehensible and unacceptable. The voting system must be validated before the election."

Linda Wilson in Sitka, Alaska, "I am shocked to discover that there are so many cracks in the system. Positive identification should be required to vote."

And C. Casey in Livermore, California, "Everyone is so focused on Iraq that we've lost sight of the big problems here at home. Problems like the cost of health care, our public schools, Social Security, jobs and outsourcing, illegal immigrations, the national debt and the social divide in this country.

We love to hear from you. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com. And please send your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read on this broadcast receives a free copy of my new book on "Exporting America."

This week, we begin a new series of special reports that we call Driven to Run. We introduce you to American citizens this week who are so passionate, so frustrated about the issues and the way they're being dealt with in this country that they've decided to run for Congress where they hope to make a difference.

Tonight, a successful business owner who is disgusted with the export of American jobs and the lack of government action to stop it.

Bill Tucker reports from Akron, New York.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVIS: My name is Jack Davis. I'm running for Congress.

BILL TUCKER, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Jack Davis doesn't need run for Congress. He already has a job. He's the owner of I Squared R, a maker of commercial heating elements, the last domestically-owned maker of these types of heating elements, which are used in the making of steel, glass and ceramics. Jack Davis doesn't need to run. He's driven to run.

DAVIS: I am on a mission to save American jobs, farms and industry, and I'm devoting my assets and my time because I'm on a mission. I can't control this. I just have to do it. Logically speaking, I shouldn't be doing it. Patriotically speaking, I have to do it. TUCKER: Davis was a lifelong Republican. He switched to Democrat after failing to get his Republican congressman to understand the urgency of the issue.

DAVIS: They're not businessmen in Washington. They're politicians, and the politicians are in the pockets of the multinational companies that are making all kinds of money. But look what's happening to the middle class. It is being destroyed.

TUCKER: Seventy-five people work at I Squared R, earning on average $25 an hour with benefits. Most agree with their boss.

SHAWN BORGOLZ, EMPLOYEE, I SQUARED R: Do they think that by letting my boots that I'm wearing today cost 10 bucks less that that'll make me happier as an American? Well, if I don't have a job to pay for my boots, I don't care if the boots are free. So I think Washington needs to focus more on what's good for America.

TUCKER (on camera): The campaign of Jack Davis is unique in several different ways, including uniting a staunchly proud non-union manufacturer with strong union support.

(voice-over): The AFL-CIO and the UAW work actively on his campaign.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The number one issue with us is jobs, and that's his top three issues -- jobs, jobs, jobs.

TUCKER: For Jack Davis, the bottom line is obvious.

DAVIS: For the nation to be strong, it has to grow the food it eats, be able to clothe its people and also manufacture the products that it consumes. If you can't do that, if you're letting other countries do that for you, you're sending all your wealth offshore.

TUCKER: Bill Tucker, CNN, Akron, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LOU DOBBS, HOST: And tomorrow night, we'll introduce you to another American driven to run. An Army Reservist from New Jersey who says he will fight for our national security and support our troops. Steve Brosak (ph) tomorrow.

Coming up next, fighting for the troops. Senator Mary Landrieu makes a powerful case on the Senate floor for reservists and National Guardsmen serving this country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D), LOUISIANA: We left out our troops. We left out the men and women that are on the front line.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Senator Landrieu is my guest next. And the final push to November 2. President Bush, Senator Kerry targeting voters in key states around the country. The race, it seems, couldn't be any closer. Three of the best political journalists in the country join me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Senator Mary Landrieu this weekend held up a Senate vote on a massive overhaul of corporate tax reform, if you will, or corporate tax giveaway, depending on your point of view.

Landrieu was fighting for a tax break for employers who continue to pay our reservists and National Guard troops when they're called to active duty. In a compromise, Republican leaders agree to add the Landrieu Amendment it a House Bill, clearing the way for a Senate's vote.

The Senate's corporate tax Bill passed today by an overwhelming majority.

Senator Mary Landrieu joins me tonight from Washington, D.C.

Good to have you with us.

LANDRIEU: Thanks, Lou. And thank you for having me on tonight to talk about this important issue.

DOBBS: The idea that with 100 and -- about $140 billion at stake here, with almost every special interest in the country represented in this legislation, that the president has said he will sign, it's astounding that our reservists and our National Guardsmen weren't in consideration.

LANDRIEU: Lou, you're absolutely right. And I think that's why we're able to win the filibuster and win the argument and win the day for them. Because it really was indefensible and so unjust that we would have spent two years putting together a tax Bill, even considering there was some good things in it, and basically leave the Guard and Reserve out.

Six hundred and forty-three thousand men and women have been called up since 9/11, and evidently, they just didn't get the attention of the leadership of the House.

And so I think we've gotten their attention now and this battle has now moved to the House. We won in the Senate, and the battle lines are now in the House.

DOBBS: Now, your amendment, give us your best judgment. I know that that it's difficult to assess these things in terms of chronology and timing. But do you believe, first of all, your amendment will effectively and -- succeed, and what will it accomplish?

LANDRIEU: Well, actually, Lou, yes, because the amendment passed the Senate, and to the criminal of all of the Senators -- Republicans and Democrats -- we came together to basically repair and to fix what the House had left on the cutting room floor.

And we've sent the measure over to the House, and it would basically provide a tax credit to small businesses. I would have preferred it to be all businesses, but the Republican leadership in the Senate, if you would imagine, wanted it directed only to small business. I think all businesses deserve this credit.

But it would have given a credit to the businesses to keep that paycheck whole for the Guard and Reserve fighting on the front line. Many of these families, according to the GAO report, take about -- 41 percent of the families take a pay cut.

And so this is not only helping our soldiers, but helping their families, keeping them focused on securing us while we secure their families at home.

DOBBS: Well, Senator Mary Landrieu, we -- we thank you for being here, and congratulations on exerting considerable influence for certainly the right people, our men and women in uniform.

LANDRIEU: Well, thank you, Lou, and the battle's not over. We've got to fight in the House, but hopefully the House leadership will take this Bill up and pass it when we come back after the election. But we've still got let our voices be heard.

Thank you.

DOBBS: Thank you, Senator.

And a reminder now to vote in our poll tonight: "Should the United Nations hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for-food scandal?" Cast your vote at CNN.com/Lou. We'll have the results for you, of course, here later in the broadcast.

Coming up next, three weeks until the presidential election. The race for the White House closer than ever. We'll hear from the three leading political journalists in the country. We'll have your thoughts. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Just 22 days to go until the election. The latest polls show the presidential race in a dead heat. The candidates meet for a third and final so-called debate Wednesday night in Tempe, Arizona.

Joining me tonight here in New York is Mark Warren, executive editor of "Esquire" magazine. In Washington, Tom DeFrank. He's Washington bureau chief for the "New York Daily News." And Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News & World Report."

Gentlemen, thank you.

Roger, definitively, we've got have an answer, because too many people are calling the last presidential presentation a draw. Let's cut through all that and tell us who you really thought won, Roger? ROGER SIMON, POLITICAL EDITOR, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": I thought Kerry won. Not as much as he won -- by not as much he won the first one.

But I think these debates continue to help John Kerry and continue to hurt George Bush. I think George Bush is paying for the fact that he's had very few press conferences and that he speaks to only carefully selected, adoring crowds.

DOBBS: If he had more press conferences, he'd have more friends in the national press, Roger?

SIMON: No, I think he'd be quicker on his feet, Lou.

DOBBS: OK.

SIMON: I think he'd be able to answer questions quicker off the cuff. When he can't answer a question about the Supreme Court, I think that's someone who doesn't handle this format very well.

But over all, I think he was petulant in the first debate and pugnacious in the second debate, and what he needs to be is presidential. Maybe we'll see that in the third debate.

DOBBS: Let's see if I've got this right: petulant, pugnacious and presidential. And that's the standard here.

SIMON: I'm three "P's" today.

DOBBS: OK, very good. Alliterative.

Tom, I won't ask you to be as alliterative, but your best determination as to won?

TOM DEFRANK, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Well, I think it was a little bit closer than that, Lou. I think it was a draw, and I say that only because I think the president did much better in the second one than he did in the first one, or at least he did better in the second half of the second one. I do think...

DOBBS: We're starting to parse now, Tom. We're starting to parse.

DEFRANK: No, I don't think so. No, that's the wrong "P."

I thought he was -- I thought he recovered towards the end, but I thought he was not good, not good at all stylistically in the first half of the second debate.

But Senator Kerry, -- Senator Kerry did what he needed to do, and President Bush needed -- did at least up to a point what he needed to do. I still think it was a draw, with -- with Kerry making some -- some headway.

DOBBS: Mark Warren, you don't think it's a draw, do you? You're going to declare one or the other, aren't you? MARK WARREN, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "ESQUIRE": Somewhere in between Roger and Tom in that I think that the president righted himself somewhat from the first debate in that he showed up this time.

He's still clearly on the defensive on Iraq, which is clearly the animating issue in the campaign with three weeks out. But he battled Kerry to a draw, which is something, considering the horrible week of news he had last week.

DOBBS: Roger, what issue do you think the president was strongest on Friday night?

SIMON: Gee, that's a hard one. Any issue that wasn't Iraq. Iraq, as you've just heard, continues to be the soft spot of this election for the president.

DOBBS: Wait -- let me take -- let me take the opposite view. The fact is, I don't see much of a difference, frankly, between Senator Kerry and President Bush on Iraq. So, enlighten me.

SIMON: That's because you're concentrating on actually what the two are saying, Lou. You're actually studying this as if it were an issue.

President Bush wants to convince us that President -- that Senator Kerry is a dangerous flip-flopper on Iraq. And this is serious, not only because of the issue itself but because it reveals a flawed Senator Kerry.

Senator Kerry wants to convince us that George Bush wildly misjudged the situation and misled the American people, either willfully or not willfully, and this is an example of how he will continue for the next four years.

To you, however, you see that both these two men will continue the occupation of Iraq after election day, and you're absolutely correct in that respect. They both will.

DEFRANK: Lou, let me just interject very quickly.

DOBBS: Sure.

DEFRANK: It's not what Roger thinks; it's not what I think. Maybe it's valid what somebody who's extremely close to President Bush, someone I've known a long time and I respect his political judgment.

This fellow said to me last week, he said, "If it weren't for Iraq, we'd be ahead by 40 points." They wouldn't be ahead by 40 points. They might be ahead by 12, 14, 16.

And so that -- that is -- that convinces me, given who this guy is, that Iraq really is a drag on the president's prospects. I think that's the one issue that the Bush team fears, because they cannot completely control what happens in Iraq in the next three weeks.

DOBBS: Mark?

WARREN: Well, I agree with you, in that, neither men will distinguish himself in the next three weeks by comparing and contrasting the specifics of Iraq policy. We'd like to think that they have Iraq policies going forward.

But Senator Kerry's campaign tactic has to be, and will continue to be, that Iraq does not equal the war on terrorism, and the president had bad judgment in going in.

But President Bush's campaign strategy will be to continue to attack Kerry as not understanding the threat.

DOBBS: Let me ask you, Roger. Again, the question came up in this -- this debate, asking the president about mistakes. It seems there is this impetus of some sort that they want to hear president George W. Bush say, "I made a mistake" about any number of things. It was open-ended, in point in fact.

What is behind that?

SIMON: Well, George Bush has come off a 10 days with a number of peoples -- are saying he's made mistakes going into Iraq. Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction. You've got his -- Iraq -- former Iraq viceroy saying that we didn't send enough troops over.

DOBBS: No, no, no. We stipulate that he's made -- let me be clear. We stipulate that he's made mistakes.

I mean, if you haven't figured out George Bush has made mistakes here, you know, I don't know what camp to put you in. But the point is, why is there this impetus to have him articulate it and expressed the fact that he's made mistakes?

SIMON: We like -- Americans like to be forgiving. They are -- we are a forgiving people. And if a powerful person says, "I was wrong," as Bill Clinton once did, they are very likely to be sympathetic toward them and give him points.

George Bush from a tactical standpoint -- it's silly for George Bush to continue to say he has never made a serious mistake. As you point out, it's so obvious at variance with the truth. And I can't believe his handlers have not come up with two or three good ways to say it.

DOBBS: Isn't fair to say...

SIMON: What we're seeing...

DOBBS: Isn't it fair to say, Roger, that he has not said he hasn't made a mistake but rather has refused to acknowledge making one? Maybe I'm parsing now.

SIMON: You're parsing too much for me. What's the difference?

DOBBS: The difference being, one is to say, "I did not make a mistake." The other is not to acknowledge any mistake. One, I guess, would -- one is misfeasance; one is malfeasance.

SIMON: And we'll get to nonfeasance by the end of the show. I'm sorry, go ahead.

DEFRANK: You know, Lou, I think what this is all about, is one it's the president's stubborn streak. This is the way he is. But it's also a part of the strategy for the president to portray himself as steady, solid and constant, unyielding and consistent.

Because the flip side of that, as we all know, is the president has spent a lot of time and effort -- so has Vice President Cheney -- trying to convince the American people that Senator Kerry is not consistent, that he's a wishy-washy, flip-flopping dilettante.

And so I think maybe the president has overcorrected a little bit. But that, I think, is part of the strategy. It's not just presidential stubbornness.

WARREN: I submit that the questioner was not looking for even a discussion of the big mistakes. The questioner was looking for a little humility.

And the president -- I wouldn't presume to offer him advice, but he would be smart to say, "Look, I make mistakes every day. I make, you know, ten mistakes before breakfast. It's a hard job. I do the best I can."

But frankly, the campaign has decided that if they concede anything, if they give an inch, they lose.

DOBBS: In this environment -- I guess, Roger, going back to your point about -- well, and Mark's about humility here, acknowledging to a forgiving nation, the problem is before you do that, you've got to get through an unforgiving media.

And I can just see the headlines of whatever the mistake is that President Bush would knowledge. "President admits mistake." It would be blaring at us from our television and through our radios and the headlines from our morning papers.

SIMON: I disagree, Lou.

DOBBS: OK.

SIMON: I think it's far worse to make mistakes and not admit them than to make mistakes and admit...

DOBBS: In principle, I quite agree with you. I'm not disagreeing with you.

SIMON: But the media -- the media is going to concentrate on the mistakes either way. So why not, as Mark just said, show a little humility? We really are electing a human being here. We do not expect our presidents to be perfect, and we would like to see them acknowledge that fact. I don't think it would damage George Bush in the least. I don't think it's a good campaign tactic. I just disagree that it's being done as some super tactic to show he's not a flip-flopper. I think we are showing the personal refusal of George Bush to go along with the good advice that he should admit to a mistake. And the possibility exists he will admit to some in the third debate.

WARREN: I agree with Roger completely. Because if it seems that the president is saying, look, to the American people, "Look, trust me and not your own eyes," then he's got a problem, you know, with three weeks out, I think.

DOBBS: Trust me and not your lying eyes, I think is the way that goes.

Tom DeFrank, these polls showing -- "Washington Post" has George Bush up by five points, the Zogby, Kerry up by three. Our poll, basically dead on, statistically even.

What are we likely to see here in the next presentation in Tempe to offset this tie, to gain advantage for either candidate?

DEFRANK: Well, that's -- that's an open-ended question, Lou. It's hard -- it's hard to know.

I think you're going to see more of the same. I mean, I think Senator Kerry is going to -- going to hammer the president on Iraq. He'll find a way to talk about Iraq even though this is supposed to be about domestic policy and economic policy.

But I think -- I think the Kerry side thinks they have made some real progress, simply because Kerry has come across as a guy who might -- might be credible as a commander in chief. He's made up some ground, and I think you're going to see more of the same from -- from both of these guys.

DOBBS: Tom DeFrank, Mark Warren, Roger Simon, gentlemen, thank you very much for being here. And we look forward to visiting with your thoughts over the course of the next few days, as we move toward that all-important third presidential presentation.

Tonight's thought is on debate. "We urgently need a debate about the best ways of supporting families in modern America, without blinders that prevent us from seeing the full extent of dependence and interdependence in American life. As long as we pretend that only poor or abnormal families need outside assistance, we will shortchange poor families, overcompensate rich ones, and fail to come up with effective policies for helping families in the middle."

Those are the words of U.S. historian Stephanie Coontz.

Still ahead, we'll share some of your thoughts on "Exporting America."

And strike breaks out in Africa's largest exporter of crude oil, sending prices to new highs. We'll have a full report for you. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: On Wall Street, stocks today up slightly, the Dow gaining nearly 27 points; the NASDAQ up nearly nine; the S&P 500 up more than two. For a fifth straight day, oil prices at new record highs.

Christine Romans is here now with the report -- Christine.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, almost $54 a barrel now for crude oil. OPEC says it'll keep pumping oil to keep the world economy humming.

But this market doesn't care about OPEC and Saudi Arabia's high sulfur fuel. It's worried, at least today, about Nigeria, where outrage over high fuel costs have sparked a four-day strike, shutting down shops, sending protesters into the streets.

Now, Shell says it's still pumping oil there. The markets didn't care. You've got Yukos troubles in Russia, three months of strikes in Norway, astonishing demand from China, and stretched U.S. supplies straining oil prices and hurting consumers.

Gasoline prices rose another eight cents in the latest two weeks. Now, $1.99 on average nationwide.

Bottom line, consumers who have weathered a summer of high gas prices can now look forward to a winter of high heating oil and natural gas prices, Lou.

DOBBS: Very high prices. But the fact is, this market, as much as oil prices have risen, it's very volatile. And people shouldn't forget we've been here before.

ROMANS: We have. Oil prices up 65 percent in the last nine months. That happened had a couple of years. It happened couple of years before that. And in between a couple of times where oil lost a lot of ground very quickly.

I checked the last few times that oil has rallied this much through nine months. Typically, it keeps going a little bit further.

DOBBS: And it's time, I think, for a lot of people to start looking at how much speculators are gaming the system right now. Because when we start talking about gulf oil production not coming online for a year, when we start talking about all of this nonsense about quality of crude oil coming out of light sweet crude, high sulfur, low sulfur content, people are starting to get just a little too fancy. And you start wondering about why those prices have been moving up, and perhaps there are some answers in there.

ROMANS: Indeed.

DOBBS: Christine Romans, as always, thank you.

Taking a look now at some of your thoughts.

Greg Tripp in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania: "I certainly wish President Bush and Senator Kerry would discuss how they stand on illegal immigration. NAFTA, outsourcing of American jobs and the building of the middle class in other countries at the expense of destroying our own. So far neither candidate has addressed the fact that our global economic policies are jeopardizing the very foundations of our nation's economy and our future."

And Cecile Harris in Fort Wayne, Indiana: "Lou, I am appalled at the continuous outsourcing of American jobs to foreign countries. We pay CEO's millions of dollars, while at the same time giving our jobs away to foreign countries."

Please send us your thoughts to LouDobbs@CNN.com. Send your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."

Coming up next, the results of our poll tonight and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: And now the results of tonight's poll. Sixty-four percent of you say the United Nations should hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for-food scandal. Thirty-six percent say you do not.

Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us here tomorrow. Laura Murphy of the American Civil Liberties Union will join me. She says efforts to improve our national security are slashing our personal freedoms.

And Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, will be here. He'll be here to talk about what he considers a misguided effort in his state to reform the Electoral College.

And "Driven to Run": we introduce you to another ordinary American citizen so frustrated, seeking change in Washington, for the first time, running for political office.

For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Aired October 11, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, it's a dead heat. President Bush and Senator Kerry are statistically tied. Both candidates today launched a final push to win votes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Our goal is not to reduce terror to some acceptable level of nuisance. Our goal is to defeat terror.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Instead of standing up for you, George Bush has chosen secret meetings with the energy industry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And Democracy at Risk. Tonight, a dramatic warning about the vulnerability of our national voting system. Is it a Third-World voting system? My guest is John Fund, author of "Stealing Our Elections."

Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana held up a massive corporate tax bill to help our Reservists and National Guard troops. She's my guest tonight.

And dozens of ordinary Americans are so frustrated with the state of our government, they've decided to run for office. Tonight, a small business owner running for Congress because he's upset about the export of American jobs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACK DAVIS, SMALL BUSINESS OWNER: I am on a mission to save American jobs, farms and industry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Tonight, we begin our week-long special report Driven to Run.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 11. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

Tonight, just 22 days before the election, President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a dead heat. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll says both candidates have 48 percent support among registered voters. Among likely voters, Senator Kerry has a 1 percent lead. These dramatic poll numbers come only two days before the third and final so-called presidential debate.

From Washington, Bill Schneider tonight reports on this latest poll; from Denver, Dana Bash reports on the Bush campaign; and from Santa Fe, New Mexico, Ed Henry covering the Kerry campaign.

To Dana Bash in Denver first -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the president's campaign's plans were for him to focus on domestic issues this week, but when Bush aides saw what they view as a Kerry gaff on terrorism, they shifted gears.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BASH (voice-over): Jumping on John Kerry's suggestion terrorism should be reduced to the level of a nuisance, the president told supporters in New Mexico the senator doesn't get it.

BUSH: Our goal is not to reduce terror to some acceptable level of nuisance. Our goal is to defeat terror by staying on the offensive, destroying terrorist networks and spreading freedom and liberty around the world.

BASH: In a state he lost by just 366 votes, Mr. Bush was seizing on a Kerry quote from this weekend's "New York Times" saying, "We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance.

"As a law-enforcement person, I know we're never going to end prostitution. We're never going to end illegal gambling," going on to say, "It's something that you continue to fight, but it's not threatening the fabric of you life."

Political manna from heaven for Bush campaign officials saying for months Senator Kerry's weakness is treating terrorism as a law- enforcement problem, not an outright war.

ANNOUNCER: How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat?

BASH: So an instant Bush ad.

RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is naive and dangerous.

BASH: And an echo from the vice president campaigning in New Jersey, a solid Kerry state until several polls showing the president gaining ground and a state that lost some 700 residents on 9/11.

CHENEY: This is all part a pre-9/11 mindset, and it is a view we cannot go back to.

BASH: Camp Kerry shot back: The president is playing the politics of fear, saying even Mr. Bush suggested over the summer, the war on terror is unwinnable.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: And Kerry aides say that Mr. Bush is twisting his words and found and just e-mailed a quote from the first President Bush's national security adviser who said a couple of years ago that an ideal would be to make terrorism a nuisance and not a paralyzing force in society.

But, Lou, the Bush campaign says that there is a difference in philosophy on these issues, one they think benefits them politically, and they intend to keep pointing it out -- Lou.

DOBBS: Dana, thank you.

Dana Bash.

Senator Kerry today launched a sweeping attack on the president's energy policy. Senator Kerry blamed rising gas prices on what he called the president's "gross mismanagement" of the Iraq War. Senator Kerry delivered his attack in New Mexico, a critically important battleground state.

Ed Henry reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: It is great to be back here in the State of Mexico while George Bush is in the state of denial.

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry's in Santa Fe for two days of preparation for Wednesday's final presidential debates. The Kerry camp is confident the Senator held his own on national security in the first two debates. Now he can pivot to his turf, the domestic agenda, the focus of the third debate in Arizona.

Kerry zeroed in Monday on energy reform, wrapping it into an overall indictment of President Bush's record here at home.

KERRY: Just like health care -- five million people lost their health care -- just like education -- millions of children left behind -- the president has more excuses than results.

And when it comes to developing a real energy policy, George Bush has run out of gas.

HENRY: But Kerry opened his remarks with an indirect reference to another domestic issue, stem cell research, by paying tribute to Christopher Reeve.

In Friday's debate, Kerry had rapped the president for not pushing harder for stem cell research and invoked the name of Reeve.

KERRY: Chris Reeve is a friend of mine. Chris Reeve exercises every single day to keep those muscles alive for the day when he believes he can walk again, and I want him to walk again.

HENRY: A Kerry aide told CNN that on Saturday the actor called Kerry. The two did not speak, but the Kerry camp says Reeve left the senator a message: It's important to keep the stem cell issue in the forefront. Reeve later went to the hospital and died.

(on camera): Kerry chose New Mexico for his debate prep in part because he so desperately needs this state's five electoral votes. Al Gore only won in 2000 by 366 votes in New Mexico, the smallest margin of any state in the country. And recent polls show, it's a dead heat again.

Ed Henry, CNN, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: And nationally, it's a dead heat, according to the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll released today. The candidates now have only three weeks left in which to convince voters they have the advantage in this election.

Our Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider has the report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): The presidential race is just about a dead heat. Is that good news for either candidate? Look at the trend.

A month ago, George W. Bush was leading John Kerry by 14 points. Just before the first debate, Bush's lead had narrowed to 8 points. After the first debate on September 30, the race was tied.

Now, after the second debate, it's Kerry 49, Bush 48. Kerry's support has gone up 9 points among likely voters over the last month. Bush has lost 6.

Here's one reason. Political interests is surging among Democrats, to the point where now, unlike a month ago, more Democrats than Republicans say they have given the election a lot of thought.

The debates are another reason. Voters overwhelmingly thought Kerry won the first debate. The second debate was seen as much closer. Viewers gave Kerry only a 2-point edge.

But look at what happened in the two days after that debate. Kerry's edge over Bush grew to 15 points. That has raised expectations for Kerry in the next debate. A majority of Americans think Kerry will did a better job in the final debate on Wednesday.

The public sees Kerry as more intelligent and Bush as stronger and more decisive. But, on one quality, there has been a noticeable shift. In early September, just after the Republican Convention, Bush had the edge as the more honest and trustworthy candidate.

After the first debate, Bush's margin narrowed. Now the two candidates are virtually tied -- Kerry 44, Bush 42. Bush's rating on honesty and trustworthiness has dropped 4 points just in the past week.

Last week's report by the Iraq survey group headed by Chief Weapons Inspector Charles Duelfer may have had an impact, especially when the president refused during the debate to acknowledge any mistakes.

BUSH: They're trying to say did you make a mistake going into Iraq, and the answer is absolutely not. It's the right decision. The Duelfer report confirmed that decision today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: All together, five national polls have come out since Friday night's debate. Three, including ours, show Kerry slightly ahead. Two show Bush slightly ahead. All five results are within the margin of error. The average: Bush 47, Kerry 47.

You know, we could be facing another long election night. The last one went on for five weeks -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Bill Schneider.

Still ahead here, scandal at the United Nations. Astonishing new revelations about the U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq. By guest is Claudia Rosett from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Landmark elections in Afghanistan. A dramatic victory for freedom, after years of radical Islamist rule. We'll have a report on the world's newest democracy.

And our own Democracy at Risk, not just from electronic voting, but also from old-fashion ballot rigging. John Fund is the author on of "Stealing Our Elections." He's my guest tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The Iraqi government today launched a new campaign to convince followers of the anti-American cleric Muqtada al Sadr to hand in weapons to police stations in exchange for money.

Iraqis in Baghdad handed in rocket-propelled grenade launchers, mortars, machine guns and assault rifles. In return, Iraqi police gave those followers of al Sadr vouchers that could be exchanged for cash. The price of each machine gun: $1,000. The price of an AK-47 assault rifle: $150.

In Afghanistan, one of this country's closest allies now on the global war on terror, President Hamid Karzai appears to have won a dramatic election victory. Millions of Afghans took part in the election just three years after the United States liberated Afghanistan from the Taliban and the al Qaeda terror network.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS (voice-over): Military helicopters transported ballot boxes to Kandahar stadium for counting, the same stadium where the Taliban once held public executions. German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder arrived in Afghanistan to offer his early congratulations to interim President Hamid Karzai.

Karzai said the elections were a victory for his war-torn nation.

HAMID KARZAI, PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN: The Afghan people went and voted, and, by voting, they have shown the defeat of terrorism and all of those who do not want peace in Afghanistan.

DOBBS: The elections were not without controversy. Several of the opposition candidates called for a boycott, claiming the process was corrupt. The controversy stemmed from a claim the ink used to mark voters' hands once they cast their ballots was not indelible.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): They said the ink was faulty, but I even did my laundry and it hasn't come off. The election must be accepted.

DOBBS: The leader of the boycott has since backed off his claim and says he will accept the findings of an independent commission that examines the results. International election officials agree.

AMB. ROBERT BARRY, OSCE: We concur with the Joint Election Management Board that the candidates' demand to nullify the election is unjustified.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We elect -- select Mr. Karzai. Yes, we are happy with Mr. Karzai.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: And, yes, now even Afghans will have to get used to exit polls. The exit polls conducted over the weekend elections forecasts now Hamid Karzai to win by a large margin, and, in just a matter of weeks, he will no longer be interim president, but president-elect of what is now internationally certified to be the world's newest democracy.

Disturbing details tonight on corruption and scandal in the United Nations oil-for-food program. A new report from the chief U.S. weapons inspector detailed corruption, which provided opportunities for Saddam Hussein's regime to make millions of dollars -- billions of dollars, in fact -- through kickbacks and smuggling.

My next guest says the oil-for-food program was, in fact, Saddam's real weapons program. She says the United Nations failed to do its job by keeping details of the oil-for-food program a complete secret.

Joining me now is Claudia Rosett. She's journalist in residence at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Claudia, good to have you here.

CLAUDIA ROSETT, FOUNDATION FOR THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: Good to be here, Lou.

DOBBS: Why do you say that the oil for food was Saddam's real weapons program?

ROSETT: Because he worked the -- he perverted the program so completely with the active cooperation of the United Nations that, in the end, he was using it to build up an entire financial network that was his arms-smuggling program.

In fact, he was using it to buy conventional arms, and it was -- there was a -- what Charles Duelfer actually found that hasn't been -- hasn't really been reported is that Saddam had a deliberate strategy to subvert oil for food, to get rid of sanctions completely, and then he had networks in place that would have enabled him to produce weapons of mass destruction in a matter of months.

DOBBS: From Duelfer's report and other reports to this extent, to this point, it's clear that Saddam had also compromised a number of our allies within the United Nations.

ROSETT: Absolutely. In fact, part of Saddam, again -- and it appears to have been deliberate -- was to buy up in various ways France, China and Russia, the three veto-wielding members of the Security Council who went through this knock-down fight, especially France and Russia, with the U.S. and the U.K.

DOBBS: Why did it take so long for the details of the corruption, the utter scandal of the U.N. oil-for-food program to come to light?

ROSETT: Most...

DOBBS: Because we're talking about billions...

ROSETT: Yes. Most...

DOBBS: ... and billions of dollars.

ROSETT: Absolutely. We're talking about $11 billion -- $10 billion to $11 billion estimated that skimmed out mostly because the United Nations kept all the details of this program secret. All we were told was that babies were being fed in Iraq. You could not even see the names of the contractors or the prices.

DOBBS: Kofi Annan, the U.N. secretary general, has brought in Paul Voelcker, a highly respected central banker almost of icon stature, to lead the investigation. Where does that investigation stand, and why have we not heard a word as a result of that investigation?

ROSETT: That investigation has been moving along at a rather slow pace from every sign we've seen. Frankly, there has been nothing that would tell us where it stands, and I think there should be more transparency from them, also.

The U.N. has functioned for so long as a black hole for any information about itself. The Voelcker investigation so far has served that same function. His report is now expected out middle of next year. That's rather down the road.

What you really need is for the U.N. even now to release the details that it still has. They aren't all in the CIA report.

DOBBS: And Kofi Annan -- why is he not being held accountable for this already clearly established example of massive corruption within the United Nations.

ROSETT: He should be held accountable. We have been operating on the assumption that because something is called a relief program, that means it's all right. It was far from all right. It was dangerous. It corrupted the United Nations. It brought arms into Iraq that may now be killing both Iraqis and our own soldiers. And it greatly corrupted actually scores of businesses worldwide who may now be liable to blackmail. The damage of this is far from over.

DOBBS: Claudia Rosett.

Thanks for being here.

ROSETT: Thank you.

DOBBS: It brings us to the subject of tonight's poll: Should the United Nations, in fact, hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for- food scandal? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have results later here in the broadcast.

Coming up next, our Democracy at Risk. Fraud, intimidation, voter manipulation rampant in our election system. John Fund the author of "Stealing Elections," and he is my next guest.

And ordinary Americans driven to run for public office out of frustration with what is happening in Washington, D.C. Tonight, small business owner Jack Davis says it's his duty to fight back against the export of American jobs.

Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVIS: Logically speaking, I shouldn't be doing it. Patriotically speaking, I have to do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs. DOBBS: My next guest says this country has what he calls a haphazard, fraud-prone election system befitting an emerging Third- World country, rather than the world's leading democracy.

John Fund is the author of "Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy," and John says our election system is lethally sloppy. John Fund is also a member of "The Wall Street Journal" editorial board, joining us tonight.

John, good to have you here.

JOHN FUND, AUTHOR, "STEALING ELECTIONS": Pleasure.

DOBBS: What you describe and what you write about in your book is chilling. The fact of the matter is these provisional ballots that were dictated look like a source of considerable fraud potentially in this election.

FUND: Well, I have a piece on opinionjournal.com today, my column, which talks about how much trouble we could get in with these. Let's say Bush is ahead 3,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and that decides election, but there are 70,000 provisional votes that have to be verified and counted. Now you're going to have some people count every vote, the Al Sharptons of the world. You're going to have other people say, well, are these...

DOBBS: Well, the Lou Dobbses of the world will say count every vote, in point of fact.

FUND: Well, yes, but every ballot is not every vote See, you have to -- some people, if they aren't registered, aren't valid voters. Some people, if they're felons -- we just found that there are 6,000 felons who aren't eligible to vote registered to vote in Colorado. So, if we have these 70,000 provisional votes, you may finish an election night here at CNN saying Bush wins Pennsylvania by 3,000 votes, but there are 70,000 provisional votes to be counted.

Now here's the rub: We've only had one election where provisional votes were the difference because this is a new phenomenon. In Colorado, it took 33 days to count all the provisional votes.

DOBBS: In New York, we know at least 46,000 voters are, well, doubly registered in New York and Florida.

FUND: And 1,700 of them requested absentee ballots. We have an honor system. Basically, if you want to cheat in this country when it comes to voting, you can.

DOBBS: In New Jersey, in Maryland, in a number of other states, you don't even need to prove you're a citizen or have it demonstrated. What do you assess the potential impact of that to be on this election itself?

FUND: It is possible to have felons, illegal aliens, people, you know, voting bulk absentee ballots, filling out names of people who don't even exist. It's a civil right to vote, but it's an equal civil right not to have your vote canceled out by someone who shouldn't be voting or doesn't even exist.

DOBBS: You point out in your book that eight -- eight, was it? -- of the 19...

FUND: Eight of the 19.

DOBBS: ... 9/11 hijackers could have registered to vote?

FUND: No, they did register to vote.

DOBBS: I mean, that's just astounding.

FUND: We have a motor voter law. You do any business with the government, you practically automatically get registered to vote. It's an honor system. We -- in a close election where passions are running so high, there are going to be some people who want to put their thumb on the scale, and we can't trust an honor system anymore.

DOBBS: What do we do?

FUND: Well, first of all, photo I.D. Why in the world do we have a system to show photo I.D. to board a plane, to rent a video at a Blockbuster, but not to vote?

DOBBS: Well, why do we have a situation in this country where anyone can get a driver's license which is prima face evidence of citizenship?

FUND: Well, a lot of people say doing anything to prevent voter fraud and getting people from getting a driver's license discriminates against minorities. I don't think minorities want their votes canceled out by having people who shouldn't be voting either. So...

DOBBS: Sure.

FUND: Exactly. So photo I.D. would be a start. We also need to clean up our registration rolls. This motor voter roll means that 15 percent to 20 percent of the people registered on a roll, they don't exist.

DOBBS: And how many people do you estimate will be voting by absentee ballot this year?

FUND: Up to 30 percent, and that is the way you commit fraud because it's a paper ballot outside of government scrutiny.

DOBBS: John, we're reporting here on what we call Democracy at Risk. Your book, "Stealing Elections," certainly is no reassurance to all of us here, and I think it's an important read for everyone watching the broadcast. Hopefully -- hopefully -- it will not presage what we are going to experience on November 2.

FUND: I don't want Election Day to become Election Month.

DOBBS: Or worse.

John Fund, thank you.

FUND: Thank you.

DOBBS: Taking a look now at some of your thoughts. We've been reporting extensively here on the risk to our democracy because of flaws in voting systems in a number of states.

Greg in Redondo Beach, California, wrote in to say, "It seems that we'll have to wait until Election Day to know about the integrity of the nation's voting system. This is incomprehensible and unacceptable. The voting system must be validated before the election."

Linda Wilson in Sitka, Alaska, "I am shocked to discover that there are so many cracks in the system. Positive identification should be required to vote."

And C. Casey in Livermore, California, "Everyone is so focused on Iraq that we've lost sight of the big problems here at home. Problems like the cost of health care, our public schools, Social Security, jobs and outsourcing, illegal immigrations, the national debt and the social divide in this country.

We love to hear from you. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com. And please send your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read on this broadcast receives a free copy of my new book on "Exporting America."

This week, we begin a new series of special reports that we call Driven to Run. We introduce you to American citizens this week who are so passionate, so frustrated about the issues and the way they're being dealt with in this country that they've decided to run for Congress where they hope to make a difference.

Tonight, a successful business owner who is disgusted with the export of American jobs and the lack of government action to stop it.

Bill Tucker reports from Akron, New York.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVIS: My name is Jack Davis. I'm running for Congress.

BILL TUCKER, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Jack Davis doesn't need run for Congress. He already has a job. He's the owner of I Squared R, a maker of commercial heating elements, the last domestically-owned maker of these types of heating elements, which are used in the making of steel, glass and ceramics. Jack Davis doesn't need to run. He's driven to run.

DAVIS: I am on a mission to save American jobs, farms and industry, and I'm devoting my assets and my time because I'm on a mission. I can't control this. I just have to do it. Logically speaking, I shouldn't be doing it. Patriotically speaking, I have to do it. TUCKER: Davis was a lifelong Republican. He switched to Democrat after failing to get his Republican congressman to understand the urgency of the issue.

DAVIS: They're not businessmen in Washington. They're politicians, and the politicians are in the pockets of the multinational companies that are making all kinds of money. But look what's happening to the middle class. It is being destroyed.

TUCKER: Seventy-five people work at I Squared R, earning on average $25 an hour with benefits. Most agree with their boss.

SHAWN BORGOLZ, EMPLOYEE, I SQUARED R: Do they think that by letting my boots that I'm wearing today cost 10 bucks less that that'll make me happier as an American? Well, if I don't have a job to pay for my boots, I don't care if the boots are free. So I think Washington needs to focus more on what's good for America.

TUCKER (on camera): The campaign of Jack Davis is unique in several different ways, including uniting a staunchly proud non-union manufacturer with strong union support.

(voice-over): The AFL-CIO and the UAW work actively on his campaign.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The number one issue with us is jobs, and that's his top three issues -- jobs, jobs, jobs.

TUCKER: For Jack Davis, the bottom line is obvious.

DAVIS: For the nation to be strong, it has to grow the food it eats, be able to clothe its people and also manufacture the products that it consumes. If you can't do that, if you're letting other countries do that for you, you're sending all your wealth offshore.

TUCKER: Bill Tucker, CNN, Akron, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LOU DOBBS, HOST: And tomorrow night, we'll introduce you to another American driven to run. An Army Reservist from New Jersey who says he will fight for our national security and support our troops. Steve Brosak (ph) tomorrow.

Coming up next, fighting for the troops. Senator Mary Landrieu makes a powerful case on the Senate floor for reservists and National Guardsmen serving this country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D), LOUISIANA: We left out our troops. We left out the men and women that are on the front line.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Senator Landrieu is my guest next. And the final push to November 2. President Bush, Senator Kerry targeting voters in key states around the country. The race, it seems, couldn't be any closer. Three of the best political journalists in the country join me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Senator Mary Landrieu this weekend held up a Senate vote on a massive overhaul of corporate tax reform, if you will, or corporate tax giveaway, depending on your point of view.

Landrieu was fighting for a tax break for employers who continue to pay our reservists and National Guard troops when they're called to active duty. In a compromise, Republican leaders agree to add the Landrieu Amendment it a House Bill, clearing the way for a Senate's vote.

The Senate's corporate tax Bill passed today by an overwhelming majority.

Senator Mary Landrieu joins me tonight from Washington, D.C.

Good to have you with us.

LANDRIEU: Thanks, Lou. And thank you for having me on tonight to talk about this important issue.

DOBBS: The idea that with 100 and -- about $140 billion at stake here, with almost every special interest in the country represented in this legislation, that the president has said he will sign, it's astounding that our reservists and our National Guardsmen weren't in consideration.

LANDRIEU: Lou, you're absolutely right. And I think that's why we're able to win the filibuster and win the argument and win the day for them. Because it really was indefensible and so unjust that we would have spent two years putting together a tax Bill, even considering there was some good things in it, and basically leave the Guard and Reserve out.

Six hundred and forty-three thousand men and women have been called up since 9/11, and evidently, they just didn't get the attention of the leadership of the House.

And so I think we've gotten their attention now and this battle has now moved to the House. We won in the Senate, and the battle lines are now in the House.

DOBBS: Now, your amendment, give us your best judgment. I know that that it's difficult to assess these things in terms of chronology and timing. But do you believe, first of all, your amendment will effectively and -- succeed, and what will it accomplish?

LANDRIEU: Well, actually, Lou, yes, because the amendment passed the Senate, and to the criminal of all of the Senators -- Republicans and Democrats -- we came together to basically repair and to fix what the House had left on the cutting room floor.

And we've sent the measure over to the House, and it would basically provide a tax credit to small businesses. I would have preferred it to be all businesses, but the Republican leadership in the Senate, if you would imagine, wanted it directed only to small business. I think all businesses deserve this credit.

But it would have given a credit to the businesses to keep that paycheck whole for the Guard and Reserve fighting on the front line. Many of these families, according to the GAO report, take about -- 41 percent of the families take a pay cut.

And so this is not only helping our soldiers, but helping their families, keeping them focused on securing us while we secure their families at home.

DOBBS: Well, Senator Mary Landrieu, we -- we thank you for being here, and congratulations on exerting considerable influence for certainly the right people, our men and women in uniform.

LANDRIEU: Well, thank you, Lou, and the battle's not over. We've got to fight in the House, but hopefully the House leadership will take this Bill up and pass it when we come back after the election. But we've still got let our voices be heard.

Thank you.

DOBBS: Thank you, Senator.

And a reminder now to vote in our poll tonight: "Should the United Nations hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for-food scandal?" Cast your vote at CNN.com/Lou. We'll have the results for you, of course, here later in the broadcast.

Coming up next, three weeks until the presidential election. The race for the White House closer than ever. We'll hear from the three leading political journalists in the country. We'll have your thoughts. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Just 22 days to go until the election. The latest polls show the presidential race in a dead heat. The candidates meet for a third and final so-called debate Wednesday night in Tempe, Arizona.

Joining me tonight here in New York is Mark Warren, executive editor of "Esquire" magazine. In Washington, Tom DeFrank. He's Washington bureau chief for the "New York Daily News." And Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News & World Report."

Gentlemen, thank you.

Roger, definitively, we've got have an answer, because too many people are calling the last presidential presentation a draw. Let's cut through all that and tell us who you really thought won, Roger? ROGER SIMON, POLITICAL EDITOR, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": I thought Kerry won. Not as much as he won -- by not as much he won the first one.

But I think these debates continue to help John Kerry and continue to hurt George Bush. I think George Bush is paying for the fact that he's had very few press conferences and that he speaks to only carefully selected, adoring crowds.

DOBBS: If he had more press conferences, he'd have more friends in the national press, Roger?

SIMON: No, I think he'd be quicker on his feet, Lou.

DOBBS: OK.

SIMON: I think he'd be able to answer questions quicker off the cuff. When he can't answer a question about the Supreme Court, I think that's someone who doesn't handle this format very well.

But over all, I think he was petulant in the first debate and pugnacious in the second debate, and what he needs to be is presidential. Maybe we'll see that in the third debate.

DOBBS: Let's see if I've got this right: petulant, pugnacious and presidential. And that's the standard here.

SIMON: I'm three "P's" today.

DOBBS: OK, very good. Alliterative.

Tom, I won't ask you to be as alliterative, but your best determination as to won?

TOM DEFRANK, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Well, I think it was a little bit closer than that, Lou. I think it was a draw, and I say that only because I think the president did much better in the second one than he did in the first one, or at least he did better in the second half of the second one. I do think...

DOBBS: We're starting to parse now, Tom. We're starting to parse.

DEFRANK: No, I don't think so. No, that's the wrong "P."

I thought he was -- I thought he recovered towards the end, but I thought he was not good, not good at all stylistically in the first half of the second debate.

But Senator Kerry, -- Senator Kerry did what he needed to do, and President Bush needed -- did at least up to a point what he needed to do. I still think it was a draw, with -- with Kerry making some -- some headway.

DOBBS: Mark Warren, you don't think it's a draw, do you? You're going to declare one or the other, aren't you? MARK WARREN, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "ESQUIRE": Somewhere in between Roger and Tom in that I think that the president righted himself somewhat from the first debate in that he showed up this time.

He's still clearly on the defensive on Iraq, which is clearly the animating issue in the campaign with three weeks out. But he battled Kerry to a draw, which is something, considering the horrible week of news he had last week.

DOBBS: Roger, what issue do you think the president was strongest on Friday night?

SIMON: Gee, that's a hard one. Any issue that wasn't Iraq. Iraq, as you've just heard, continues to be the soft spot of this election for the president.

DOBBS: Wait -- let me take -- let me take the opposite view. The fact is, I don't see much of a difference, frankly, between Senator Kerry and President Bush on Iraq. So, enlighten me.

SIMON: That's because you're concentrating on actually what the two are saying, Lou. You're actually studying this as if it were an issue.

President Bush wants to convince us that President -- that Senator Kerry is a dangerous flip-flopper on Iraq. And this is serious, not only because of the issue itself but because it reveals a flawed Senator Kerry.

Senator Kerry wants to convince us that George Bush wildly misjudged the situation and misled the American people, either willfully or not willfully, and this is an example of how he will continue for the next four years.

To you, however, you see that both these two men will continue the occupation of Iraq after election day, and you're absolutely correct in that respect. They both will.

DEFRANK: Lou, let me just interject very quickly.

DOBBS: Sure.

DEFRANK: It's not what Roger thinks; it's not what I think. Maybe it's valid what somebody who's extremely close to President Bush, someone I've known a long time and I respect his political judgment.

This fellow said to me last week, he said, "If it weren't for Iraq, we'd be ahead by 40 points." They wouldn't be ahead by 40 points. They might be ahead by 12, 14, 16.

And so that -- that is -- that convinces me, given who this guy is, that Iraq really is a drag on the president's prospects. I think that's the one issue that the Bush team fears, because they cannot completely control what happens in Iraq in the next three weeks.

DOBBS: Mark?

WARREN: Well, I agree with you, in that, neither men will distinguish himself in the next three weeks by comparing and contrasting the specifics of Iraq policy. We'd like to think that they have Iraq policies going forward.

But Senator Kerry's campaign tactic has to be, and will continue to be, that Iraq does not equal the war on terrorism, and the president had bad judgment in going in.

But President Bush's campaign strategy will be to continue to attack Kerry as not understanding the threat.

DOBBS: Let me ask you, Roger. Again, the question came up in this -- this debate, asking the president about mistakes. It seems there is this impetus of some sort that they want to hear president George W. Bush say, "I made a mistake" about any number of things. It was open-ended, in point in fact.

What is behind that?

SIMON: Well, George Bush has come off a 10 days with a number of peoples -- are saying he's made mistakes going into Iraq. Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction. You've got his -- Iraq -- former Iraq viceroy saying that we didn't send enough troops over.

DOBBS: No, no, no. We stipulate that he's made -- let me be clear. We stipulate that he's made mistakes.

I mean, if you haven't figured out George Bush has made mistakes here, you know, I don't know what camp to put you in. But the point is, why is there this impetus to have him articulate it and expressed the fact that he's made mistakes?

SIMON: We like -- Americans like to be forgiving. They are -- we are a forgiving people. And if a powerful person says, "I was wrong," as Bill Clinton once did, they are very likely to be sympathetic toward them and give him points.

George Bush from a tactical standpoint -- it's silly for George Bush to continue to say he has never made a serious mistake. As you point out, it's so obvious at variance with the truth. And I can't believe his handlers have not come up with two or three good ways to say it.

DOBBS: Isn't fair to say...

SIMON: What we're seeing...

DOBBS: Isn't it fair to say, Roger, that he has not said he hasn't made a mistake but rather has refused to acknowledge making one? Maybe I'm parsing now.

SIMON: You're parsing too much for me. What's the difference?

DOBBS: The difference being, one is to say, "I did not make a mistake." The other is not to acknowledge any mistake. One, I guess, would -- one is misfeasance; one is malfeasance.

SIMON: And we'll get to nonfeasance by the end of the show. I'm sorry, go ahead.

DEFRANK: You know, Lou, I think what this is all about, is one it's the president's stubborn streak. This is the way he is. But it's also a part of the strategy for the president to portray himself as steady, solid and constant, unyielding and consistent.

Because the flip side of that, as we all know, is the president has spent a lot of time and effort -- so has Vice President Cheney -- trying to convince the American people that Senator Kerry is not consistent, that he's a wishy-washy, flip-flopping dilettante.

And so I think maybe the president has overcorrected a little bit. But that, I think, is part of the strategy. It's not just presidential stubbornness.

WARREN: I submit that the questioner was not looking for even a discussion of the big mistakes. The questioner was looking for a little humility.

And the president -- I wouldn't presume to offer him advice, but he would be smart to say, "Look, I make mistakes every day. I make, you know, ten mistakes before breakfast. It's a hard job. I do the best I can."

But frankly, the campaign has decided that if they concede anything, if they give an inch, they lose.

DOBBS: In this environment -- I guess, Roger, going back to your point about -- well, and Mark's about humility here, acknowledging to a forgiving nation, the problem is before you do that, you've got to get through an unforgiving media.

And I can just see the headlines of whatever the mistake is that President Bush would knowledge. "President admits mistake." It would be blaring at us from our television and through our radios and the headlines from our morning papers.

SIMON: I disagree, Lou.

DOBBS: OK.

SIMON: I think it's far worse to make mistakes and not admit them than to make mistakes and admit...

DOBBS: In principle, I quite agree with you. I'm not disagreeing with you.

SIMON: But the media -- the media is going to concentrate on the mistakes either way. So why not, as Mark just said, show a little humility? We really are electing a human being here. We do not expect our presidents to be perfect, and we would like to see them acknowledge that fact. I don't think it would damage George Bush in the least. I don't think it's a good campaign tactic. I just disagree that it's being done as some super tactic to show he's not a flip-flopper. I think we are showing the personal refusal of George Bush to go along with the good advice that he should admit to a mistake. And the possibility exists he will admit to some in the third debate.

WARREN: I agree with Roger completely. Because if it seems that the president is saying, look, to the American people, "Look, trust me and not your own eyes," then he's got a problem, you know, with three weeks out, I think.

DOBBS: Trust me and not your lying eyes, I think is the way that goes.

Tom DeFrank, these polls showing -- "Washington Post" has George Bush up by five points, the Zogby, Kerry up by three. Our poll, basically dead on, statistically even.

What are we likely to see here in the next presentation in Tempe to offset this tie, to gain advantage for either candidate?

DEFRANK: Well, that's -- that's an open-ended question, Lou. It's hard -- it's hard to know.

I think you're going to see more of the same. I mean, I think Senator Kerry is going to -- going to hammer the president on Iraq. He'll find a way to talk about Iraq even though this is supposed to be about domestic policy and economic policy.

But I think -- I think the Kerry side thinks they have made some real progress, simply because Kerry has come across as a guy who might -- might be credible as a commander in chief. He's made up some ground, and I think you're going to see more of the same from -- from both of these guys.

DOBBS: Tom DeFrank, Mark Warren, Roger Simon, gentlemen, thank you very much for being here. And we look forward to visiting with your thoughts over the course of the next few days, as we move toward that all-important third presidential presentation.

Tonight's thought is on debate. "We urgently need a debate about the best ways of supporting families in modern America, without blinders that prevent us from seeing the full extent of dependence and interdependence in American life. As long as we pretend that only poor or abnormal families need outside assistance, we will shortchange poor families, overcompensate rich ones, and fail to come up with effective policies for helping families in the middle."

Those are the words of U.S. historian Stephanie Coontz.

Still ahead, we'll share some of your thoughts on "Exporting America."

And strike breaks out in Africa's largest exporter of crude oil, sending prices to new highs. We'll have a full report for you. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: On Wall Street, stocks today up slightly, the Dow gaining nearly 27 points; the NASDAQ up nearly nine; the S&P 500 up more than two. For a fifth straight day, oil prices at new record highs.

Christine Romans is here now with the report -- Christine.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, almost $54 a barrel now for crude oil. OPEC says it'll keep pumping oil to keep the world economy humming.

But this market doesn't care about OPEC and Saudi Arabia's high sulfur fuel. It's worried, at least today, about Nigeria, where outrage over high fuel costs have sparked a four-day strike, shutting down shops, sending protesters into the streets.

Now, Shell says it's still pumping oil there. The markets didn't care. You've got Yukos troubles in Russia, three months of strikes in Norway, astonishing demand from China, and stretched U.S. supplies straining oil prices and hurting consumers.

Gasoline prices rose another eight cents in the latest two weeks. Now, $1.99 on average nationwide.

Bottom line, consumers who have weathered a summer of high gas prices can now look forward to a winter of high heating oil and natural gas prices, Lou.

DOBBS: Very high prices. But the fact is, this market, as much as oil prices have risen, it's very volatile. And people shouldn't forget we've been here before.

ROMANS: We have. Oil prices up 65 percent in the last nine months. That happened had a couple of years. It happened couple of years before that. And in between a couple of times where oil lost a lot of ground very quickly.

I checked the last few times that oil has rallied this much through nine months. Typically, it keeps going a little bit further.

DOBBS: And it's time, I think, for a lot of people to start looking at how much speculators are gaming the system right now. Because when we start talking about gulf oil production not coming online for a year, when we start talking about all of this nonsense about quality of crude oil coming out of light sweet crude, high sulfur, low sulfur content, people are starting to get just a little too fancy. And you start wondering about why those prices have been moving up, and perhaps there are some answers in there.

ROMANS: Indeed.

DOBBS: Christine Romans, as always, thank you.

Taking a look now at some of your thoughts.

Greg Tripp in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania: "I certainly wish President Bush and Senator Kerry would discuss how they stand on illegal immigration. NAFTA, outsourcing of American jobs and the building of the middle class in other countries at the expense of destroying our own. So far neither candidate has addressed the fact that our global economic policies are jeopardizing the very foundations of our nation's economy and our future."

And Cecile Harris in Fort Wayne, Indiana: "Lou, I am appalled at the continuous outsourcing of American jobs to foreign countries. We pay CEO's millions of dollars, while at the same time giving our jobs away to foreign countries."

Please send us your thoughts to LouDobbs@CNN.com. Send your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."

Coming up next, the results of our poll tonight and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: And now the results of tonight's poll. Sixty-four percent of you say the United Nations should hold Kofi Annan responsible for the oil-for-food scandal. Thirty-six percent say you do not.

Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us here tomorrow. Laura Murphy of the American Civil Liberties Union will join me. She says efforts to improve our national security are slashing our personal freedoms.

And Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, will be here. He'll be here to talk about what he considers a misguided effort in his state to reform the Electoral College.

And "Driven to Run": we introduce you to another ordinary American citizen so frustrated, seeking change in Washington, for the first time, running for political office.

For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com