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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Bush, Kerry Prepare for Third Debate; Federal Government Possibly to Set National Driver's License Standards
Aired October 12, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry getting ready for their third and final so-called presidential debate. Both campaigns today blasting each other. A new round of attacks.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent has showed why he earned his ranking as the most liberal member of the United States Senate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This president is completely unwilling to recognize what's actually happening.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: A controversial ballot initiative in Colorado could possibly determine the outcome of this presidential election. Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, joins me. He says it's nothing less than a partisan effort top win votes for Senator Kerry.
U.S. troops launch a wave of attacks against insurgent strongholds in Iraq. Military commanders are threatening decisive action if Muqtada al Sadr's gunmen don't hand in their weapons.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COL. ABE ABRAMS, 1ST CAVALRY DIVISION: If the numbers are not very high, then we'll have a requirement to broaden our search into many other places, and it will be anything but surgical or cursory.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: And the federal government could soon set national standards for driver's licenses. The ACLU says that's a mistake and an infringement upon our freedom. My guest tonight is one of the harshest critics, Laura Murphy of the ACLU.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Tuesday, October 12. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry was just about 24 hours away from their third and final and potentially decisive so-called presidential debate.
President Bush today stepped up his attacks against Senator Kerry. President Bush said Senator Kerry's statements simply do not pass the credibility test.
Senator Kerry kept out of sight today as he prepares for tomorrow's presidential presentations.
Dana Bash is covering the president's campaign. She's in Scottsdale, Arizona, tonight. Ed Henry is in Santa Fe, New Mexico, covering Senator Kerry's campaign.
We go to Dana Bash first -- Dana.
DANA BUSH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the president spent the day first in Colorado, then here in Arizona, where he appeared with the home state senator, John McCain, and he tried to lay the groundwork for his strategy for tomorrow night and for the three weeks left in this campaign, and that is to try to draw what Mr. Bush calls a clear contrast between himself and his opponent, calling John Kerry a big government, big spending liberal, and he says he has a record to prove it, and, today, he honed in on Senator Kerry's health-care plan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: He said the other day the government doesn't have anything do to with this plan. When he said that, I could barely contain myself. Of course, the government has something to do with this plan. It's the cornerstone of his plan. It's the crux of his health-care policy to expand the federal government.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: the president made the case today that his ideas for health care, like health savings accounts and medical liability reform, are the way to go, and his campaign released two ads on health care to drive the point home.
Now Kerry aides point out that health costs and the number of uninsured have risen dramatically on the president's watch. And, Lou, all of this is in advance, of course, of tomorrow night's debate where the focus will be on domestic issues, and Bush aides are well aware that this means that they will be fighting on John Kerry's turf.
And we have some numbers to illustrate that on issues with -- on domestic issues, looking at health care, looking at the deficit, looking at Medicare. The president trails Senator Kerry by 19 percent, 13 percent and 15 percent. Those are big differences in how the public perceives both of those candidates.
Now Bush aides do point out that the president does have a slight advantage on taxes, and what they say they have to do tomorrow night is what we heard from the president today, is really try to drive the point home that John Kerry is somebody who is liberal.
That, they hope at the Bush campaign, will get undecideds who are voting on domestic issues to vote their way. Obviously, it is a classic Republican line, but it's one Bush aides feel is going to work for them this time - Lou.
DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much.
Senator John Edwards today led the Democratic attack against President Bush. Senator Edwards said Senator Kerry will tell the truth about jobs, tell the truth about health care and other issues in tomorrow's presidential presentations.
Ed Henry has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry is holed up in his New Mexico hotel, huddling with aides to gear up for Wednesday's showdown with President Bush.
With Kerry off the stump, his running mate did the talking at a stop in Colorado.
EDWARDS: John Kerry's going to win that debate tomorrow, and one of the reasons he's going to win is because George Bush is out of touch.
HENRY: Kerry had planned to head to Arizona tonight to be in place for that debate, but he decided to stay in Santa Fe instead because of a heated rivalry, not Bush versus Kerry, but the Red Sox versus the Yankees. The Red Sox fan was afraid of missing game one of the American League Championship Series, if he was on a plane to Phoenix.
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO: The next president of the United States...
HENRY: New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson, has been behind closed doors with Kerry this week. He says the Red Sox fixation shows the senator is not worried about this debate.
RICHARDSON: Senator Kerry's very relaxed. I've seen him before when he's a little tense and jumpy. He's very much at peace. He's confident. He feels the debates have gone well. He's looking forward to the Boston Red Sox winning.
HENRY: After what they believe were victories in the first two debates, team Kerry is confident heading into the final contest, which focuses on Kerry's turf, domestic issues.
RICHARDSON: The third debate, he needs to avoid make a big mistake, which he won't do because he's a very skilled debater. What he needs to do is stay on message, be strong, and it'll be three for three.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: At this hour, John Kerry's heading out for a bike ride here in Santa Fe. Then he is going to watch that baseball game. All of this to project an image that he is calm, cool, collected, heading into tomorrow night's debate.
Kerry aides insist that they did win those first two debates. They say they think they can win the third one as well, and they say all the pressure's on the president because they say no incumbent has lost all three debates and then come back to win the race -- Lou.
DOBBS: Ed, you referred to domestic issues as Senator Kerry's turf, as did Dana Bash, two references that may be taken as somewhat prejudicial to the president's cause. What do we mean when we say it is John Kerry's turf?
HENRY: Lou, when you look at any poll across the spectrum at any network, on the domestic issues, John Kerry repeatedly does better than the president on health care, education, et cetera, but when you look at national security, that's clearly President Bush's turf. He does better.
The reason why Kerry has not sealed the deal, in the estimation of his staff, is that they believe that the president has distorted his record on taxes, has distorted his record on the war on terror, and they say they're looking forward tomorrow night to finally lay out a clear choice, something Al Gore did not do in 2000 -- that annoyed a lot of Democratic-base voters -- but lay out a clear choice on all of these domestic issues -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, Ed, we may have used the expression twice in two reports in this campaign. At least we didn't refer to it as a turf battle.
Ed, thank you very much.
Ed Henry reporting.
HENRY: Thank you.
DOBBS: The United States could be on the verge of a major policy shift toward Iran, a country that President Bush once called a member of the axis of evil. The United States is reportedly considering the idea of giving Iran incentives to abandon technology that could be used to build nuclear weapons. The incentives would include access to imported nuclear fuel. But Iran today said it will never give up its right to enrich uranium, a process that is necessary to make nuclear warheads.
The United States is facing new questions tonight about missing nuclear equipment in Iraq. U.N. nuclear inspectors say equipment that can be used to make nuclear weapons is disappearing from storage areas in Iraq. The United States today said it is concerned about the missing machinery, but the United States says the situation is nonetheless "under control." U.S. and Iraqi troops today stepped up their attacks against insurgent strongholds in the Sunni triangle. American aircraft bombarded targets in Fallujah, and troops stormed mosques in Ramadi. Those mosques suspected of harboring insurgents.
Brent Sadler has the report from Baghdad.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRENT SADLER, CNN BEIRUT BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): U.S.-led military action on multiple fronts in Iraq. America warplanes hit two suspected terror targets in Fallujah in the early hours of Tuesday, destroying a safe house and a planting center used by foreign fighters loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, according to U.S. officials. Zarqawi associates were targeted, it's claimed, while planning more suicide bombings and kidnappings.
Escalating anti-insurgent operations in Ramadi, some 60 miles west of Baghdad, where Iraqi troops backed up by U.S. Marines launched a series of raids on seven mosques in the city. Holy sites are normally afforded protected status in the fighting, but, in Ramadi, U.S. officials say these mosques were used for insurgent activity, including weapons storage, recruitment for fighters and harboring terrorists.
But in Sadr City, close to the capital, U.S. forces have put a hold on military action pending the outcome of a voluntary surrender of weapons by Mehdi Army fighters which began yesterday. But progress is slow. No other encouraging signs either, say U.S. commanders. Militants, they say, have not removed hundreds of improvised bombs that line some of Sadr City streets with the density of mine fields.
ABRAMS: Over a 1.5-kilometer stretch of road had over 120 improvised explosive devices.
SADLER (on camera): Every bullet, bomb and machine gun that's handed in is being carefully counted day by day, but, so far, say U.S. military commanders, the tally is less than convincing.
(voice-over): By Saturday, though, come what may with the weapons count, says the U.S. military, security sweeps in the Shia slum neighborhood will resume to root out weapons or insurgents. But if the militia really disarms and relinquishes thousands of armaments, a less intense military action is expected.
ABRAMS: If the numbers are not very high, then we'll have a requirement to broaden our search into many other places, and it'll be anything but surgical or cursory.
SADLER: A clear warning that, by week's end, the Mehdi Army faces renewed offensive military action by U.S.-backed Iraqi forces, unless the militia lays down its huge arsenal of weapons between now and then.
Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Tonight, CNN has learned that the United States military made two attempts to rescue Americans and British hostages kidnapped in Iraq. Neither attempt, of course, was successful.
Radical Islamists abducted Americans, Eugene Armstrong and Jack Hensley and British citizen Ken Bigley on the 16th of September. The terrorists later cut off the heads of all three hostages. A U.S. official said the rescue teams went to locations where they believed the hostages were held.
There is no word tonight on what led -- what intelligence led U.S. forces to those locations, but, on both occasions, the buildings are empty and there is no word on why the intelligence failed.
Still ahead, the pollsters say this election is simply too close to call, but are opinion polls simply a numbers game, too unreliable to be trusted? What is their importance, and what should be their proper proportion? As we canvas this campaign, pollster John Zogby will join me.
Voters in Colorado consider a dramatic change to their voting system that could possibly determine the outcome of the 2004 presidential election if a ballot initiative succeeds. My guest is Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.
And Congress may introduce national standards for driver's licenses for the first time ever. Critics say it is the beginning of a police state. One of those critics, Laura Murphy of the ACLU, is my guest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Exactly three weeks to go to the presidential election. According to the latest polls -- there are a number of them -- this will be another very close race. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll released today shows President Bush and Senator Kerry tied at 45 percent each.
Despite those numbers, John Zogby says this election is, in his opinion, Senator Kerry's to lose. Zogby is the president and CEO of Zogby International joining me tonight from Utica, New York.
Good to have you with us, John.
JOHN ZOGBY, ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL: Hi, Lou. Good to be back.
DOBBS: A lot of controversy right now over polls, many of which, yours among them, that show this race deadlocked. Others, "The Washington Post," poll, ABC News, showing the president with 3 percent to 5 percent -- 3 percent to 6 percent leads. What are we to make of this?
ZOGBY: Well, you know, the polls fluctuated in '96 and in 2000. Different methodologists. I think that there is basically something that's bigger than Kerry and bigger than Bush. It's two equal-size warring nations going to -- going into this election.
So each guy has 47 percent just for showing up and loses a couple of points here and there for whatever reason, de-energizing part of his base, but whatever -- no matter which way you look at it, whether it's 3 to 5 points one way or 3 to 5 the other way, it's a very close election.
DOBBS: A very close election, yet pundit after pundit proclaims Senator Kerry to have won the first two debates, yet it's deadlocked. What are we to make of that?
ZOGBY: There's about 5 percent out there hard-core undecideds. I have focused grouped with them in Detroit and Cleveland and in other places. They're -- many of them are paying attention. They're articulate. They're passionate. They seem to have made up their minds about President Bush.
Only 12 percent now as of last night among undecideds said the president deserves to be reelected. Forty percent of them say it's time for someone new, but there there's something missing. John Kerry has yet to close the deal. If he's able to close the deal, he'll win. If not, undecideds will not show up to vote, and the president will win.
DOBBS: Well, let's talk about a few things here. One, what should all of us be paying attention to -- polls of likely voters or registered voters?
ZOGBY: Really only likely voters. Ultimately, we want our sample to reflect some sort of actual turnout model on election day. There's enough stability over the years. We know how many minorities, how many poor people, how many young people by and large vote. We should be paying attention to likelies.
DOBBS: John, we see these very impressive results, some of them dramatic tight races, deadlocked as is yours, for example. But, in that poll, there's no proclamation of how many people are truly undecided. How many people right now, in your best judgment, in this country, amongst likely voters, are truly undecided?
ZOGBY: Truly undecided, 5 percent only. Then you take 3 points of soft Kerry supporters, 3 points of soft Bush supporters.
DOBBS: And, historically, 5 percent undecided three weeks before the election -- is that high or low historically at this point?
ZOGBY: That's -- it's extremely low, and, in fact, Lou, it's been 5 percent since March.
DOBBS: And what are we to derive from that?
ZOGBY: Two equal-size warring nations. The vast center in the American polity is gone this year. We've broken up into two partisan, really polarized groups.
DOBBS: And my last question, John Zogby, is this: At what point in your polls, do you think you'll be able to absolutely, accurately forecast the outcome of this election?
ZOGBY: I think sometime the weekend before the election. We still have 5-plus percent who tell us who say they'll make up their minds on Election Day, but something will break one way or another over the weekend before the election. Long way to go -- Lou.
DOBBS: Absolutely. And it sounds like we might as well just go ahead and vote and see what outcome is, if we're going to be teased up to election weekend.
John Zogby, as always, good to have you here.
ZOGBY: Good to be with you.
DOBBS: Tonight's thought is on polling. "The so-called science of poll-taking is not a science at all, but mere necromancy. People are unpredictable by nature, and, although you can take a nation's pulse, you can't be sure that the nation hasn't just run up a flight of stairs." Those the words of author E.B. White.
Coming up next, a battle over national security. Laura Murphy of the American Civil Liberties Unions says national standards for driver's licenses, as proposed in Congress, in fact threaten our personal freedom. She's my guest.
And dividing Colorado, deciding a presidential election. Why a controversial new ballot initiative in Colorado could possibly effect the outcome of this presidential election. I'll be joined by Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.
And the candidates preparing for their third, final so-called presidential debate. Democrats fighting back against a negative documentary on Senator Kerry. Three top political journalists, three of the best, join me.
Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now, for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Tonight, controversial new legislation in the House and the Senate on national rules for driver's licenses. Based on a recommendation from the September 11 commission, the legislation would standardize the documentation required to obtain a driver's license in this country. Critics of the plan say it would create, in effect, a national identification card, but supporters say it would make it harder for terrorists to operate in this country.
Laura Murphy is director of the ACLU in Washington. She is a critic of the plan and says the legislation threatens the basic personal rights and freedoms of all Americans.
Joining us tonight from Washington, good to have you with us.
LAURA MURPHY, ACLU: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: The idea of following precisely what the September 11 commission recommended -- what's wrong with that?
MURPHY: Well, they didn't speak from an oracle. I mean, they're human beings and they used their best judgment, but, in this case, they were wrong because the national I.D. card -- there are really three basic problems with it. It's ineffective, it's ineffective, and it's not going to make us any safer.
DOBBS: When you say it's not effective, if I may, how do we know if we haven't even put together the precise dimensions of what that national standard -- those national standards for a driver's license would be?
MURPHY: Because we have seen big problems with breeder documents, birth certificates, Social Security numbers. We can't even figure out a system to get our Social Security number corrected, and so there's a problem with counterfeiting in this country, and stealing someone's identity is a huge problem. And so if we can't even protect the $20 bill, how in the heck are we going to protect a national I.D. card?
DOBBS: Well, are we then -- Laura, you're not suggesting we simply, as can-do Americans, throw up our hands and say this is a Super Bowl issue over which we have no control, and, therefore, we should throw open our borders to terrorists and resign any attempt to...
MURPHY: No, no. Not at all.
DOBBS: ... have a standard...
MURPHY: Don't even go there, Lou. That's not what we're saying.
DOBBS: I'm already there. You can't stop me. I'm already there.
MURPHY: We believe in stronger border security, airport security. We think the cargo should be checked. But, listen, this national I.D. card is going to cost billions of dollars, and we can't even...
DOBBS: Laura, wait a minute. Wait a minute.
MURPHY: We can't even hire...
DOBBS: Laura, wait. Let me interrupt. I mean, we're looking at a half-billion-dollar deficit for the federal government. I mean, what's another few billion dollars for national security?
MURPHY: Well, I think that's not -- I don't think that's fiscally responsible, and I don't think that puts the money where the problem is. You give people a false sense of security when you're not protecting the borders adequately, when you're not protecting airplane luggage sufficiently and airport security sufficiently, when you have...
DOBBS: So you want to shut down the borders Laura?
MURPHY: No, no. I don't believe in shutting down the borders. I knew you were going to ask me that. But for -- the FBI has said they have a two-year backlog on documents that need to be translated from Arabic and Farsi. There are better things the American people can do...
DOBBS: Well, I don't understand.
MURPHY: ... than to buy into a false sense of security.
DOBBS: On what basis, though, do you say that this country doesn't need to set forth standards for driver's licenses? We know that it would be helpful in the war against terror. We know that it would set a system forward that you just described as...
MURPHY: We don't have...
DOBBS: ... described as antiquated.
MURPHY: You don't offer any proof, Lou. Let's look at the 25 countries that are the top victims of terrorist attacks -- Israel, Spain, the Philippines, Indonesia. They all have national I.D. cards, and the national I.D. cards have not prevented the terrorist attacks there. And a national I.D. card doesn't tell you who intends to engage in criminal activity.
Listen, Timothy McVeigh had a driver's license. Under this system, he would still gets a driver's license. But you can't weed out the bad apples by merely having a national I.D. card.
DOBBS: No.
MURPHY: You need good, old-fashioned law-enforcement, investigatory techniques. You can't put us all in one basket and hope that the government is going to contain our information and store it correctly. I mean, these bills, Lou, don't even protect us...
DOBBS: Laura, I...
MURPHY: ... against our information being sold to the private sector.
DOBBS: Laura, when we start talking about privacy, we have a whole host of issues. I expect the ACLU to take on the issue of outsourcing our medical information, our financial information.
MURPHY: Absolutely. We're there.
DOBBS: Where are you guys on that?
MURPHY: We are concerned about the...
DOBBS: Well, let's get busy. Let's get busy. MURPHY: We are busy, Lou. Where are you? Come to Capitol Hill and testify.
DOBBS: You know what? I think I do more good here. Thank you very much for the opportunity. You stay there working on Capitol Hill, Laura Murphy of the ACLU.
MURPHY: It's my pleasure.
DOBBS: Coming back soon. We're going to be discussing this for some time to come. Thank you.
MURPHY: OK.
DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of tonight's poll. The question is: Do you believe it's possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results for you later here in the broadcast.
Coming up next, dividing Colorado. A controversial proposal that could have a direct impact on the outcome of this presidential election. Governor Bill Owens of Colorado joins me.
And Driven to Run. We introduce you tonight to an American so frustrated with the treatment of our Reservists and National Guardsmen, he decided to run for Congress.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEVE BROZAK, RUNNING FOR CONGRESS: These men and women were not being protected when they came back.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The story of veteran Steve Brozak coming up next here.
And the Democrats versus Sinclair Broadcasting, a battle over an anti-Kerry documentary set to air all across the country, and I'll be joined by three of the countries top political journalists next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A controversial amendment on the November ballot in Colorado could possibly have a direct impact on the outcome of this year's presidential election. Colorado Amendment 36, a ballot initiative, would divide that states' nine electoral votes according to the popular vote, instead of its current winner take all system. Colorado has voted for a Democratic candidate only twice since 1960. But this year, the presidential race is dead even in Colorado. Each of the candidates receive 49 percent of the most recent CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, a Republican says this proposal is a transparent partisan effort to win electoral votes for Senator Kerry. He joins us tonight from Denver. Governor, good to have you with us. GOV. BILL OWENS, (R), COLORADO: Good to be with you, Lou, how are you?
DOBBS: I am outstanding, governor. The fact of the matter is, you are presiding over a state pretty evenly divided between these two candidates. What is your problem with this electoral college change for at least the state of Colorado?
OWENS: Lou, the problem I have with it is first of all, it's designed to change our election this cycle. A gentleman in Brazil has invested $1 million. He's a maxed out John Kerry supporter. The Democratic machine in Colorado has fallen in line behind this. And I think that first of all, it's bad for my choice for president in this cycle and it's unfair. But secondly, as Colorado's governor, in the future, when we have issues regarding base closing, highway funding, water issues, a Colorado that has one electoral vote 5/4 proportionate in virtually any scenario, is simply not going to have the ability to be influential compared to states in around our borders which have many more.
DOBBS: Two other states as you know, governor, have the very same provision, what's the problem?
OWENS: Well, actually, and you have to spend a lot of time on it like I have. Those states aren't anything like this. Maine and Nebraska have provisions, which could split their votes, but in the entire history of those two states never have. In our case, it would be split every election, proportionately. So there is a significant difference between those two states and what...
DOBBS: Yes, they follow Congressional...
OWENS: ... what our friend from Brazil -- yes, they do it by Congressional district. And it is a little different.
DOBBS: How in the -- surely you've talked about this, because this could be -- if this race is as close as John Zogby and others are suggesting, Colorado, if this amendment 36 were passed, you'd split the votes, as you're suggesting. In point in fact, Al Gore would have won the presidency in 2000, if this amendment 36 had been on your books in 2000, right?
OWENS: Absolutely. And if this election is as close as we anticipate, it could have a huge impact on this election. I would add, though, if California had proportional, George Bush would have been elected by, you know, 20 electoral votes, and if New York did the same. My problem is also we'd be the only state in the country that would be almost unilaterally disarming, by saying we're going to be first. If somebody wants to have a national debate on the electoral college, that's appropriate. But from my standpoint as governor of Colorado, this is bad for our state. Not just for my candidate this year, but for everybody in the future.
DOBBS: Well, as the saying goes, you all got there by yourselves. You've got to divided electorate right now, at least as far as the polls are suggesting. Where does amendment 36 stand in your polling? Will it win passage?
OWENS: You know, Lou, at this point, it's ahead in some polls. It's behind in others. It's a complicated process. So we're simply not sure. We have three weeks to go and I'm working hard against amendment 36. And some people on other side are doing the opposite.
DOBBS: The idea that it would be effectively retroactive to the 20004 election, to me is strikingly bizarre. But then again, I'm not an attorney, and I will always defer to those greater minds in the legal system. I'm sure you're prepared to fight on that basis as well, should it pass.
OWENS: We are. And it would be a shame because we would have a Florida-type situation, where a Colorado Supreme Court would rule perhaps one way, and the U.S. Supreme Court on a federal constitutional question, the other. And so it'd be once again a month-long process similar to Florida.
DOBBS: Governor Bill Owens, we thank you for being here. And it seems like...
OWENS: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: It seems like this year in all corners of this country, we're working very hard to make this a very interesting presidential race.
OWENS: That it will be. Thanks.
DOBBS: Governor, thank you.
Still ahead here, "Driven to Run." One veteran's fight for justice and support for men and women in uniform that began on the wake of September 11th has driven him to run for the first time for the U.S. Congress.
And on the eve of the final presidential presentation, tonight, we'll be talking with three of the country's top political journalists and I'll be joined by Molly Ivins, political columnist, author. She says time is running out for President Bush and Senator Kerry. She joins me next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Well, domestic issues, the key tomorrow night's so-called presidential debate. My next guest says that President Bush's domestic policy is weak. She also says several of the important domestic policy largely have been ignored by both Senator Kerry and President Bush.
Joining me now from Austin, Texas is Molly Ivins, national syndicated political columnist and author. Molly, good to have you here.
MOLLY IVINS, POLITICAL COLUMNIST: Hi, Lou.
DOBBS: What do you think, tomorrow, we're going hear the real deal from these candidates?
IVINS: I would like to say on behalf of all of the talking head pundits on television, I have no idea!
DOBBS: OK. Well, Molly, you are not making this easy. What do you think we will have happen here, or is it even worth discussing? And if not, we can move right on here.
IVINS: Well, obviously, none of us has any way of predicting what's going to happen in the debate tomorrow. That's one of those crystal ball things that I think we should be called on more often. What I do think is that -- I suppose it's not a very well-kept secret. A lot of political reporters make bets on politics. And I make money betting on politics. And you'll be happy to know that I don't have any money down yet.
DOBBS: Really, you're with that 5 percent of the undecided. What's taking you so long it make up your mind?
IVINS: Well, I just think this one is tighter than a tick. And I think it can be affected by events right up until make a week, maybe even five days out. The last four, five days of the campaign are pro forma, nobody's going to break anything big. But you can see things in one this tight could still well be persuaded by events, including tomorrow night.
DOBBS: When you say, as you put it in Texas terms, tighter than a tick. The fact of the matter is that, nearly everyone says, nearly every pundit says that at worst, Senator Kerry drew the last time, won the first or won both debates.
Why is that not having some impact?
IVINS: Well at least...
DOBBS: At least on your thinking.
IVINS: I think because people are still waiting to make up their minds. They want to see one more. And I think it really has been -- I think for undecided voters, those rare beings, I think this is really a tough year. I mean, if you really have an open mind on this race, it's very are -- there are a lot of things to worry about.
DOBBS: Well, you know, with that 5 percent stubborn undecideds, if you will, what in the world do you think it's going to take? What will be the tipping point?
We'll ask since you don't want to predict, for you yourself?
IVINS: Well, no. I've already made up my mind in terms of how I am going to vote. I just haven't made up my mind in terms of how I am going to bet. And what I'm betting is that we're going to see here in the last couple of weeks a whispering campaign against Teresa Kerry. That would be very typical of Karl Rove. And of course, a new burst of ads from these Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. And I think that is, you know -- that may be enough mud to stick. And unless the Kerry people are prepared to come back with a sharp attack.
DOBBS: Molly, with our hearts brimming with the sunshine that you have been pumping, we thank you for being here. And it's always good to talk with you.
IVINS: Nice to talk with you.
DOBBS: And I want you to cheer up now. It's an important election, but it's -- we can still be cheered up just a tad. Thanks a lot. Molly Ivins, from Austin, Texas.
Well, while most veterans appear to support President Bush, some disagree and do so passionately. One of them is Steve Brozak. Steve Brozak left a career on Wall Street right after the terrorist attacks of September 11. He did so because he felt compelled to return to active duty as a U.S. Marine. Colonel Brozak was disappointed in the treatment of our reservists and National Guardsmen as he served in Iraq. Now retired, he's making support of our men and women in uniform the centerpiece of his campaign for the U.S. Congress. Christine Romans reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you a Marine as well?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Semper fi, Marine.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Semper fi to you too.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Steve Brozak is a Marine, a lifelong Republican and no stranger to war.
STEVE BROZAK (D), NEW JERSEY CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I volunteered to go back on active duty right after 9/11, because I knew that we were in a real war to protect this democracy and to protect democracy worldwide.
ROMANS: He served in the Middle East and at the Pentagon, and came away outraged, he says, that poor planning in Washington and lack of an exit strategy for Iraq put National Guard and reservists in jeopardy.
So disillusioned with his government and his party, he became a Democrat, and is running for a New Jersey congressional seat.
BROZAK: People understand that we're fighting a war on terror that's threatening this democracy, but the one thing they don't want to be told is one thing today and another thing tomorrow. If you tell someone that they're going to be in country for 12 months, then you better make sure that they're in country for 12 months. If you then tell them that they have to do another three months and then another three months after that, that is lying to them. ROMANS: Brozak's opponent is two-term Republican incumbent Mark Ferguson, in a heavily Republican district. The former Marine is outfinanced and behind in the polls. But Brozak doesn't care about the odds.
BROZAK: There is an expression in the Marines Corps, lead, follow, or get the heck out of my way. If you see that there is a problem and you have the ability to change it, you have the ability to make a difference, I can't think of a worse crime than not trying to do something.
I'm Steve Brozak, I am looking to become your congressman.
JAIME GILMARTIN, BROZAK CAMPAIGN MANAGER: This race is very much a microcosm of the national race. Here you have somebody who's been in the war situation, who's been close to the military, who comes back and says, I have to question my government, I have to question my president.
ROMANS: A Wall Street businessman for nearly 20 years, Brozak also questions his president's support for shipping American jobs overseas. Those are jobs, he says, American troops will desperately need when they finally get home.
BROZAK: Hi, sir, my name is Steve Brozak...
ROMANS: Christine Romans, CNN, Westfield, New Jersey.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: And a reminder to vote in tonight's poll. The question -- do you believe it is possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties? Yes or no? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.
Still ahead, politically charged programming. Why some are calling the latest broadcast moves controversial campaign tactics. I'll be joined by three of the country's most prominent political journalists when we continue. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now, three of the country's top political journalists. From Washington, Ron Brownstein, national political correspondent, "L.A. Times." Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent, "Time" magazine. Marcus Mabry, chief of correspondents, "Newsweek," right here in New York.
Folks, good to have you here. We've got a tight race, at least according to most of the polls. After two debates, in which apparently Senator Kerry did well, Ron, why is this such a tight race?
RON BROWNSTEIN, LOS ANGELES TIMES: Well, Lou, in fact, the two debates have affected the race significantly. I mean, when we headed into the debate number one, in all the polls President Bush had a comfortable lead. In our "L.A. Times" poll right before the first debate he was up five points, and the debates have helped Senator Kerry in two distinct ways. One, they have begun to resolve -- not entirely, but helped to make some progress about the doubts about him that the Bush campaign effectively raised, especially in August and September.
And secondly, they shifted the focus toward President Bush's record, especially in that first debate on Iraq, where the country has been more closely divided. In fact, in your latest CNN poll, his approval rating is under 50 percent.
I think the third debate is going to be intriguing, because the president has some tough numbers to defend and trends on the economy and health care and things like that, but he had very strong arguments, stronger than people thought, on domestic issues in the second half of that debate. So I think a lot of Republicans are more optimistic than they expected to be heading into this final encounter about the debate.
DOBBS: Karen, do you think that we have to be a little careful here? Because, for example, "The Washington Post" poll, the ABC News poll shows President Bush ahead. The gains that Ron just cited, which would be true of our poll, the "L.A. Times" poll, simply don't hold up there, do they?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Yeah, but I think Ron is right. The thing to be looking at here...
DOBBS: Well, wait, wait, wait, Karen, Karen, you may think he is right, but do we have to be careful about that, because we have polls that are starting to diverge here?
TUMULTY: We do, but what I was going to say, however, is that all the polls have shown, in terms of if you are looking at motion, that Senator Kerry has made up a lot of ground over the last few weeks. Whether he's ahead by a couple of points or behind by a couple of points, what we know is this is an extremely close race.
DOBBS: Close race, Marcus, at this point, we just heard John Zogby say to us that he won't know -- he won't be comfortable with his forecast on this until the last weekend going into it.
Let's talk about some of the issues. The fact of the matter is, the Catholic Church is starting to weigh in against Senator Kerry because of his stand on abortion. What do you think of that?
MARCUS MABRY, NEWSWEEK: Well, actually, Lou, I think you have to look at this -- this thing is probably the most complicated race...
DOBBS: Absolutely.
MABRY: ... in recent memory. Maybe in a generation, we've had in this country. And again, another complicated issue is the Catholic Church. Many bishops, many conservative Catholic bishops, traditionalists, are coming out there and basically saying to their parishes, not always great success, because Catholic Americans are a pretty independent lot, as it usually goes. However, many archbishops and many even parish priests are saying, if you vote for John Kerry, it's a vote for abortion, and that's a sin. And so you are voting for a sin, and you need to actually, you know, confess that before you can actually receive communion. That's really serious for American Catholics who are believers.
But they also don't like to be told who to vote for.
But at the same time, there are other Catholics who -- actually, there is not a monolith in the church on this score. Many Catholics support Kerry.
TUMULTY: Can I say, Lou, too, that "Time" magazine, we did extensive polling on this for a cover story in June, and what we discovered is that Catholics who are most likely to be influenced by what the most conservative bishops are saying are probably George Bush voters already. That in fact, among true swing Catholic voters, our polls show something like 70 percent thought that the church simply should not be getting involved in politics.
DOBBS: What about Protestant churches, Ron, in their support for Bush? That's neither monolithic as being suggested here about the Catholic Church. There's a division there as well.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, here's the fascinating thing, Lou. Generations ago, really for most of the 20th century, the big dividing line and the way Americans voted in religious terms was by denomination. Catholics were more Democratic; Protestants were more Republican. Now you see the same trend both within Catholics and among Protestants as well, that is the more often you go to church, or the more likely you are to vote Republican. It really is a religious practice test.
In 2000, the single best predictor of how someone would vote was how often they went to church. It's kind of a striking fact. And it continues this time.
The Bush campaign is putting a lot of emphasis on organizing the religiously devout, and as Karen said, I think among the Catholics, clearly there is a big division in polling between those who go to church regularly and those who don't and how they vote. And I agree that it is with the group that leans most toward Bush to begin with, this will have the most effect.
But that is a signal feature of our politics, and I suspect we will see it very sharply again in 2004, just as we did in 2000.
DOBBS: Since we have abandoned secularism here for a few moments tonight, Karen, the Supreme Court agreeing to take up the Ten Commandments. Your thoughts? And its potential impact?
TUMULTY: Well, this is going to once again remind people that one of the big issues in this election is who is on this next Supreme Court? And it's almost certain that the next president is going to have one or two or possibly even three vacancies to fill in a court that on a lot of issues is dividing 5-4. DOBBS: And Marcus, Sinclair Broadcasting going ahead with the anti-Kerry documentary. What's your thought? Is this campaigning, or is this simply...
MABRY: Sinclair Broadcasting says this is news. They are saying that this is news and they are saying they actually invited John Kerry and his campaign to come on after the program, after the news program, and give their side of the story. It's pretty extraordinary, but we have private enterprise in America and they can do that if they choose. The Democrats have filed suit with the FEC. Good luck. We will see what happens.
DOBBS: Go ahead, Ron. Or go ahead, Karen, either one of you.
TUMULTY: Well, there used to be something in broadcasting called a Fairness Doctrine. That no longer applies.
DOBBS: Oh, we have moved way beyond fairness.
BROWNSTEIN: To truth. Can I jump back to the Supreme Court point from a moment ago? Because I think it really is a useful place to jump off to think about tomorrow's debate. There was a very interesting moment toward the end of the second debate, where they were asked -- each asked a question about the Supreme Court.
The president in his answers on social issues and judicial appointments really sent out a very clear conservative message to his base. He was very comfortable trying to divide the electorate on ideological terms. We saw the same things in his closing statement about the role of government in helping the economy to grow.
Senator Kerry's answer was very revealing. He said, his ideal judge would be someone you couldn't tell from their opinions whether they were a liberal or conservative. It was of a piece with what he did earlier in the debate, where he came out against labels. He said, you know...
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Ron, do you really believe that?
BROWNSTEIN: No, I don't. But I do think -- I think that what you are seeing here is that Kerry wants to blur ideological distinctions as much as possible and get down to the particulars on issues like health care and education and jobs, and President Bush wants to cumulate this choice for voters into as much as possible kind of an ideological, more government, less government, social conservative or not. I think you'll see that very clearly, Lou, and a very good tip-off was the way they handled those social issues at end of that last debate.
MABRY: I really think that they are actually going for two different strategies here. I think given how close this race is going to be, the president and Karl Rove has decided -- and they've been talking about this for months -- it's about getting out their base. Their passionate supporters, ideologically, who are... DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) undecided...
MABRY: Absolutely. Undecided...
DOBBS: They've had a belly full of that.
MABRY: Exactly. They couldn't care less anymore. You might be undecided today; you may be undecided three weeks from now...
DOBBS: Pick a side.
MABRY: We're going to go for our base. The Democrats are still having a reach-out strategy. They are still trying to go for the middle of the road voters, for the undecided, for the swing voters. And we are going to see I think that tomorrow night in the difference in the presentation of the two candidates.
BROWNSTEIN: Real quick, Lou...
DOBBS: I am sorry, I have got to turn to Karen very quickly on this, if I may.
TUMULTY: Which is why one issue that you are going to probably hear John Kerry talk a lot about is stem cell research, which is once again in the news because of Christopher Reeve's death, and this is an issue that appeals very much to swing voters, and particularly to highly educated women.
DOBBS: Well, let's talk about highly educated women and swing voters. Stem cell research -- today claims made by the Democratic ticket that with John Kerry in office, that we could see remarkable strides ahead. That's pretty strong stuff, isn't, Karen?
TUMULTY: It is, and particularly it was unfortunate for Senator Edwards the way he phrased it, where he essentially said if John Kerry is elected that people like -- who were in a situation like Christopher Reeve would be walking. I mean, this is a -- this is sort of...
DOBBS: Let's say what it is.
TUMULTY: ... outlandish claim to say.
DOBBS: Yeah, it's outlandish. In point of fact, Marcus, I don't know what you think, does the word irresponsible come to mind?
MABRY: Irresponsible comes to mind. It's a huge flub. Flub comes to mind. The fact is, that kind of -- the more Democrats make that kind of a comment, which is outrageous, kind of like Al Gore inventing the Internet, the more they are going to get hammered by the Republicans for that.
DOBBS: Ron, you wanted to say something? We've got 20 seconds.
BROWNSTEIN: I say real quick from what Marcus was saying before, the Republicans and Democrats have different visions of how many people are going to vote here. The Republicans are thinking maybe 110 to 112. Natural increase in population from 2000. Democrats are expecting a big increase, up to maybe 117, 118 million electorate, and that is why they are focusing perhaps more of their message on the swing voters, who they are trying to bring in, casual, occasional voters, to enlarge the electorate and change the basic structure of the choice.
DOBBS: Ron, thank you. Karen, thank you very much. Marcus, thank you.
We continue tomorrow with a run-up to the third presidential so- called debate. Thank you, folks.
Still ahead here, the results of tonight's poll. A preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll: More than two-thirds of you say it is possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties.
Thanks for being with us. Please join us here tomorrow. "Time" magazine's investigative reporters Donald Barlett and Jim Steele join us to talk about their new book on the decline of health care in America and proposed solutions, as well.
On "Democracy at Risk," four years later, is Florida ready? Elections reform expert professor Martha Mahoney joins us.
And President Bush and Senator Kerry will square off on issues critical to the American middle class in round three of the so-called presidential debates. We'll have a preview for you. Please be with us.
For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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Aired October 12, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry getting ready for their third and final so-called presidential debate. Both campaigns today blasting each other. A new round of attacks.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent has showed why he earned his ranking as the most liberal member of the United States Senate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This president is completely unwilling to recognize what's actually happening.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: A controversial ballot initiative in Colorado could possibly determine the outcome of this presidential election. Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, joins me. He says it's nothing less than a partisan effort top win votes for Senator Kerry.
U.S. troops launch a wave of attacks against insurgent strongholds in Iraq. Military commanders are threatening decisive action if Muqtada al Sadr's gunmen don't hand in their weapons.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COL. ABE ABRAMS, 1ST CAVALRY DIVISION: If the numbers are not very high, then we'll have a requirement to broaden our search into many other places, and it will be anything but surgical or cursory.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: And the federal government could soon set national standards for driver's licenses. The ACLU says that's a mistake and an infringement upon our freedom. My guest tonight is one of the harshest critics, Laura Murphy of the ACLU.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Tuesday, October 12. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry was just about 24 hours away from their third and final and potentially decisive so-called presidential debate.
President Bush today stepped up his attacks against Senator Kerry. President Bush said Senator Kerry's statements simply do not pass the credibility test.
Senator Kerry kept out of sight today as he prepares for tomorrow's presidential presentations.
Dana Bash is covering the president's campaign. She's in Scottsdale, Arizona, tonight. Ed Henry is in Santa Fe, New Mexico, covering Senator Kerry's campaign.
We go to Dana Bash first -- Dana.
DANA BUSH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the president spent the day first in Colorado, then here in Arizona, where he appeared with the home state senator, John McCain, and he tried to lay the groundwork for his strategy for tomorrow night and for the three weeks left in this campaign, and that is to try to draw what Mr. Bush calls a clear contrast between himself and his opponent, calling John Kerry a big government, big spending liberal, and he says he has a record to prove it, and, today, he honed in on Senator Kerry's health-care plan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: He said the other day the government doesn't have anything do to with this plan. When he said that, I could barely contain myself. Of course, the government has something to do with this plan. It's the cornerstone of his plan. It's the crux of his health-care policy to expand the federal government.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: the president made the case today that his ideas for health care, like health savings accounts and medical liability reform, are the way to go, and his campaign released two ads on health care to drive the point home.
Now Kerry aides point out that health costs and the number of uninsured have risen dramatically on the president's watch. And, Lou, all of this is in advance, of course, of tomorrow night's debate where the focus will be on domestic issues, and Bush aides are well aware that this means that they will be fighting on John Kerry's turf.
And we have some numbers to illustrate that on issues with -- on domestic issues, looking at health care, looking at the deficit, looking at Medicare. The president trails Senator Kerry by 19 percent, 13 percent and 15 percent. Those are big differences in how the public perceives both of those candidates.
Now Bush aides do point out that the president does have a slight advantage on taxes, and what they say they have to do tomorrow night is what we heard from the president today, is really try to drive the point home that John Kerry is somebody who is liberal.
That, they hope at the Bush campaign, will get undecideds who are voting on domestic issues to vote their way. Obviously, it is a classic Republican line, but it's one Bush aides feel is going to work for them this time - Lou.
DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much.
Senator John Edwards today led the Democratic attack against President Bush. Senator Edwards said Senator Kerry will tell the truth about jobs, tell the truth about health care and other issues in tomorrow's presidential presentations.
Ed Henry has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry is holed up in his New Mexico hotel, huddling with aides to gear up for Wednesday's showdown with President Bush.
With Kerry off the stump, his running mate did the talking at a stop in Colorado.
EDWARDS: John Kerry's going to win that debate tomorrow, and one of the reasons he's going to win is because George Bush is out of touch.
HENRY: Kerry had planned to head to Arizona tonight to be in place for that debate, but he decided to stay in Santa Fe instead because of a heated rivalry, not Bush versus Kerry, but the Red Sox versus the Yankees. The Red Sox fan was afraid of missing game one of the American League Championship Series, if he was on a plane to Phoenix.
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO: The next president of the United States...
HENRY: New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson, has been behind closed doors with Kerry this week. He says the Red Sox fixation shows the senator is not worried about this debate.
RICHARDSON: Senator Kerry's very relaxed. I've seen him before when he's a little tense and jumpy. He's very much at peace. He's confident. He feels the debates have gone well. He's looking forward to the Boston Red Sox winning.
HENRY: After what they believe were victories in the first two debates, team Kerry is confident heading into the final contest, which focuses on Kerry's turf, domestic issues.
RICHARDSON: The third debate, he needs to avoid make a big mistake, which he won't do because he's a very skilled debater. What he needs to do is stay on message, be strong, and it'll be three for three.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: At this hour, John Kerry's heading out for a bike ride here in Santa Fe. Then he is going to watch that baseball game. All of this to project an image that he is calm, cool, collected, heading into tomorrow night's debate.
Kerry aides insist that they did win those first two debates. They say they think they can win the third one as well, and they say all the pressure's on the president because they say no incumbent has lost all three debates and then come back to win the race -- Lou.
DOBBS: Ed, you referred to domestic issues as Senator Kerry's turf, as did Dana Bash, two references that may be taken as somewhat prejudicial to the president's cause. What do we mean when we say it is John Kerry's turf?
HENRY: Lou, when you look at any poll across the spectrum at any network, on the domestic issues, John Kerry repeatedly does better than the president on health care, education, et cetera, but when you look at national security, that's clearly President Bush's turf. He does better.
The reason why Kerry has not sealed the deal, in the estimation of his staff, is that they believe that the president has distorted his record on taxes, has distorted his record on the war on terror, and they say they're looking forward tomorrow night to finally lay out a clear choice, something Al Gore did not do in 2000 -- that annoyed a lot of Democratic-base voters -- but lay out a clear choice on all of these domestic issues -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, Ed, we may have used the expression twice in two reports in this campaign. At least we didn't refer to it as a turf battle.
Ed, thank you very much.
Ed Henry reporting.
HENRY: Thank you.
DOBBS: The United States could be on the verge of a major policy shift toward Iran, a country that President Bush once called a member of the axis of evil. The United States is reportedly considering the idea of giving Iran incentives to abandon technology that could be used to build nuclear weapons. The incentives would include access to imported nuclear fuel. But Iran today said it will never give up its right to enrich uranium, a process that is necessary to make nuclear warheads.
The United States is facing new questions tonight about missing nuclear equipment in Iraq. U.N. nuclear inspectors say equipment that can be used to make nuclear weapons is disappearing from storage areas in Iraq. The United States today said it is concerned about the missing machinery, but the United States says the situation is nonetheless "under control." U.S. and Iraqi troops today stepped up their attacks against insurgent strongholds in the Sunni triangle. American aircraft bombarded targets in Fallujah, and troops stormed mosques in Ramadi. Those mosques suspected of harboring insurgents.
Brent Sadler has the report from Baghdad.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRENT SADLER, CNN BEIRUT BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): U.S.-led military action on multiple fronts in Iraq. America warplanes hit two suspected terror targets in Fallujah in the early hours of Tuesday, destroying a safe house and a planting center used by foreign fighters loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, according to U.S. officials. Zarqawi associates were targeted, it's claimed, while planning more suicide bombings and kidnappings.
Escalating anti-insurgent operations in Ramadi, some 60 miles west of Baghdad, where Iraqi troops backed up by U.S. Marines launched a series of raids on seven mosques in the city. Holy sites are normally afforded protected status in the fighting, but, in Ramadi, U.S. officials say these mosques were used for insurgent activity, including weapons storage, recruitment for fighters and harboring terrorists.
But in Sadr City, close to the capital, U.S. forces have put a hold on military action pending the outcome of a voluntary surrender of weapons by Mehdi Army fighters which began yesterday. But progress is slow. No other encouraging signs either, say U.S. commanders. Militants, they say, have not removed hundreds of improvised bombs that line some of Sadr City streets with the density of mine fields.
ABRAMS: Over a 1.5-kilometer stretch of road had over 120 improvised explosive devices.
SADLER (on camera): Every bullet, bomb and machine gun that's handed in is being carefully counted day by day, but, so far, say U.S. military commanders, the tally is less than convincing.
(voice-over): By Saturday, though, come what may with the weapons count, says the U.S. military, security sweeps in the Shia slum neighborhood will resume to root out weapons or insurgents. But if the militia really disarms and relinquishes thousands of armaments, a less intense military action is expected.
ABRAMS: If the numbers are not very high, then we'll have a requirement to broaden our search into many other places, and it'll be anything but surgical or cursory.
SADLER: A clear warning that, by week's end, the Mehdi Army faces renewed offensive military action by U.S.-backed Iraqi forces, unless the militia lays down its huge arsenal of weapons between now and then.
Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Tonight, CNN has learned that the United States military made two attempts to rescue Americans and British hostages kidnapped in Iraq. Neither attempt, of course, was successful.
Radical Islamists abducted Americans, Eugene Armstrong and Jack Hensley and British citizen Ken Bigley on the 16th of September. The terrorists later cut off the heads of all three hostages. A U.S. official said the rescue teams went to locations where they believed the hostages were held.
There is no word tonight on what led -- what intelligence led U.S. forces to those locations, but, on both occasions, the buildings are empty and there is no word on why the intelligence failed.
Still ahead, the pollsters say this election is simply too close to call, but are opinion polls simply a numbers game, too unreliable to be trusted? What is their importance, and what should be their proper proportion? As we canvas this campaign, pollster John Zogby will join me.
Voters in Colorado consider a dramatic change to their voting system that could possibly determine the outcome of the 2004 presidential election if a ballot initiative succeeds. My guest is Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.
And Congress may introduce national standards for driver's licenses for the first time ever. Critics say it is the beginning of a police state. One of those critics, Laura Murphy of the ACLU, is my guest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Exactly three weeks to go to the presidential election. According to the latest polls -- there are a number of them -- this will be another very close race. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll released today shows President Bush and Senator Kerry tied at 45 percent each.
Despite those numbers, John Zogby says this election is, in his opinion, Senator Kerry's to lose. Zogby is the president and CEO of Zogby International joining me tonight from Utica, New York.
Good to have you with us, John.
JOHN ZOGBY, ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL: Hi, Lou. Good to be back.
DOBBS: A lot of controversy right now over polls, many of which, yours among them, that show this race deadlocked. Others, "The Washington Post," poll, ABC News, showing the president with 3 percent to 5 percent -- 3 percent to 6 percent leads. What are we to make of this?
ZOGBY: Well, you know, the polls fluctuated in '96 and in 2000. Different methodologists. I think that there is basically something that's bigger than Kerry and bigger than Bush. It's two equal-size warring nations going to -- going into this election.
So each guy has 47 percent just for showing up and loses a couple of points here and there for whatever reason, de-energizing part of his base, but whatever -- no matter which way you look at it, whether it's 3 to 5 points one way or 3 to 5 the other way, it's a very close election.
DOBBS: A very close election, yet pundit after pundit proclaims Senator Kerry to have won the first two debates, yet it's deadlocked. What are we to make of that?
ZOGBY: There's about 5 percent out there hard-core undecideds. I have focused grouped with them in Detroit and Cleveland and in other places. They're -- many of them are paying attention. They're articulate. They're passionate. They seem to have made up their minds about President Bush.
Only 12 percent now as of last night among undecideds said the president deserves to be reelected. Forty percent of them say it's time for someone new, but there there's something missing. John Kerry has yet to close the deal. If he's able to close the deal, he'll win. If not, undecideds will not show up to vote, and the president will win.
DOBBS: Well, let's talk about a few things here. One, what should all of us be paying attention to -- polls of likely voters or registered voters?
ZOGBY: Really only likely voters. Ultimately, we want our sample to reflect some sort of actual turnout model on election day. There's enough stability over the years. We know how many minorities, how many poor people, how many young people by and large vote. We should be paying attention to likelies.
DOBBS: John, we see these very impressive results, some of them dramatic tight races, deadlocked as is yours, for example. But, in that poll, there's no proclamation of how many people are truly undecided. How many people right now, in your best judgment, in this country, amongst likely voters, are truly undecided?
ZOGBY: Truly undecided, 5 percent only. Then you take 3 points of soft Kerry supporters, 3 points of soft Bush supporters.
DOBBS: And, historically, 5 percent undecided three weeks before the election -- is that high or low historically at this point?
ZOGBY: That's -- it's extremely low, and, in fact, Lou, it's been 5 percent since March.
DOBBS: And what are we to derive from that?
ZOGBY: Two equal-size warring nations. The vast center in the American polity is gone this year. We've broken up into two partisan, really polarized groups.
DOBBS: And my last question, John Zogby, is this: At what point in your polls, do you think you'll be able to absolutely, accurately forecast the outcome of this election?
ZOGBY: I think sometime the weekend before the election. We still have 5-plus percent who tell us who say they'll make up their minds on Election Day, but something will break one way or another over the weekend before the election. Long way to go -- Lou.
DOBBS: Absolutely. And it sounds like we might as well just go ahead and vote and see what outcome is, if we're going to be teased up to election weekend.
John Zogby, as always, good to have you here.
ZOGBY: Good to be with you.
DOBBS: Tonight's thought is on polling. "The so-called science of poll-taking is not a science at all, but mere necromancy. People are unpredictable by nature, and, although you can take a nation's pulse, you can't be sure that the nation hasn't just run up a flight of stairs." Those the words of author E.B. White.
Coming up next, a battle over national security. Laura Murphy of the American Civil Liberties Unions says national standards for driver's licenses, as proposed in Congress, in fact threaten our personal freedom. She's my guest.
And dividing Colorado, deciding a presidential election. Why a controversial new ballot initiative in Colorado could possibly effect the outcome of this presidential election. I'll be joined by Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.
And the candidates preparing for their third, final so-called presidential debate. Democrats fighting back against a negative documentary on Senator Kerry. Three top political journalists, three of the best, join me.
Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now, for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Tonight, controversial new legislation in the House and the Senate on national rules for driver's licenses. Based on a recommendation from the September 11 commission, the legislation would standardize the documentation required to obtain a driver's license in this country. Critics of the plan say it would create, in effect, a national identification card, but supporters say it would make it harder for terrorists to operate in this country.
Laura Murphy is director of the ACLU in Washington. She is a critic of the plan and says the legislation threatens the basic personal rights and freedoms of all Americans.
Joining us tonight from Washington, good to have you with us.
LAURA MURPHY, ACLU: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: The idea of following precisely what the September 11 commission recommended -- what's wrong with that?
MURPHY: Well, they didn't speak from an oracle. I mean, they're human beings and they used their best judgment, but, in this case, they were wrong because the national I.D. card -- there are really three basic problems with it. It's ineffective, it's ineffective, and it's not going to make us any safer.
DOBBS: When you say it's not effective, if I may, how do we know if we haven't even put together the precise dimensions of what that national standard -- those national standards for a driver's license would be?
MURPHY: Because we have seen big problems with breeder documents, birth certificates, Social Security numbers. We can't even figure out a system to get our Social Security number corrected, and so there's a problem with counterfeiting in this country, and stealing someone's identity is a huge problem. And so if we can't even protect the $20 bill, how in the heck are we going to protect a national I.D. card?
DOBBS: Well, are we then -- Laura, you're not suggesting we simply, as can-do Americans, throw up our hands and say this is a Super Bowl issue over which we have no control, and, therefore, we should throw open our borders to terrorists and resign any attempt to...
MURPHY: No, no. Not at all.
DOBBS: ... have a standard...
MURPHY: Don't even go there, Lou. That's not what we're saying.
DOBBS: I'm already there. You can't stop me. I'm already there.
MURPHY: We believe in stronger border security, airport security. We think the cargo should be checked. But, listen, this national I.D. card is going to cost billions of dollars, and we can't even...
DOBBS: Laura, wait a minute. Wait a minute.
MURPHY: We can't even hire...
DOBBS: Laura, wait. Let me interrupt. I mean, we're looking at a half-billion-dollar deficit for the federal government. I mean, what's another few billion dollars for national security?
MURPHY: Well, I think that's not -- I don't think that's fiscally responsible, and I don't think that puts the money where the problem is. You give people a false sense of security when you're not protecting the borders adequately, when you're not protecting airplane luggage sufficiently and airport security sufficiently, when you have...
DOBBS: So you want to shut down the borders Laura?
MURPHY: No, no. I don't believe in shutting down the borders. I knew you were going to ask me that. But for -- the FBI has said they have a two-year backlog on documents that need to be translated from Arabic and Farsi. There are better things the American people can do...
DOBBS: Well, I don't understand.
MURPHY: ... than to buy into a false sense of security.
DOBBS: On what basis, though, do you say that this country doesn't need to set forth standards for driver's licenses? We know that it would be helpful in the war against terror. We know that it would set a system forward that you just described as...
MURPHY: We don't have...
DOBBS: ... described as antiquated.
MURPHY: You don't offer any proof, Lou. Let's look at the 25 countries that are the top victims of terrorist attacks -- Israel, Spain, the Philippines, Indonesia. They all have national I.D. cards, and the national I.D. cards have not prevented the terrorist attacks there. And a national I.D. card doesn't tell you who intends to engage in criminal activity.
Listen, Timothy McVeigh had a driver's license. Under this system, he would still gets a driver's license. But you can't weed out the bad apples by merely having a national I.D. card.
DOBBS: No.
MURPHY: You need good, old-fashioned law-enforcement, investigatory techniques. You can't put us all in one basket and hope that the government is going to contain our information and store it correctly. I mean, these bills, Lou, don't even protect us...
DOBBS: Laura, I...
MURPHY: ... against our information being sold to the private sector.
DOBBS: Laura, when we start talking about privacy, we have a whole host of issues. I expect the ACLU to take on the issue of outsourcing our medical information, our financial information.
MURPHY: Absolutely. We're there.
DOBBS: Where are you guys on that?
MURPHY: We are concerned about the...
DOBBS: Well, let's get busy. Let's get busy. MURPHY: We are busy, Lou. Where are you? Come to Capitol Hill and testify.
DOBBS: You know what? I think I do more good here. Thank you very much for the opportunity. You stay there working on Capitol Hill, Laura Murphy of the ACLU.
MURPHY: It's my pleasure.
DOBBS: Coming back soon. We're going to be discussing this for some time to come. Thank you.
MURPHY: OK.
DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of tonight's poll. The question is: Do you believe it's possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results for you later here in the broadcast.
Coming up next, dividing Colorado. A controversial proposal that could have a direct impact on the outcome of this presidential election. Governor Bill Owens of Colorado joins me.
And Driven to Run. We introduce you tonight to an American so frustrated with the treatment of our Reservists and National Guardsmen, he decided to run for Congress.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEVE BROZAK, RUNNING FOR CONGRESS: These men and women were not being protected when they came back.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The story of veteran Steve Brozak coming up next here.
And the Democrats versus Sinclair Broadcasting, a battle over an anti-Kerry documentary set to air all across the country, and I'll be joined by three of the countries top political journalists next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A controversial amendment on the November ballot in Colorado could possibly have a direct impact on the outcome of this year's presidential election. Colorado Amendment 36, a ballot initiative, would divide that states' nine electoral votes according to the popular vote, instead of its current winner take all system. Colorado has voted for a Democratic candidate only twice since 1960. But this year, the presidential race is dead even in Colorado. Each of the candidates receive 49 percent of the most recent CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Colorado's governor, Bill Owens, a Republican says this proposal is a transparent partisan effort to win electoral votes for Senator Kerry. He joins us tonight from Denver. Governor, good to have you with us. GOV. BILL OWENS, (R), COLORADO: Good to be with you, Lou, how are you?
DOBBS: I am outstanding, governor. The fact of the matter is, you are presiding over a state pretty evenly divided between these two candidates. What is your problem with this electoral college change for at least the state of Colorado?
OWENS: Lou, the problem I have with it is first of all, it's designed to change our election this cycle. A gentleman in Brazil has invested $1 million. He's a maxed out John Kerry supporter. The Democratic machine in Colorado has fallen in line behind this. And I think that first of all, it's bad for my choice for president in this cycle and it's unfair. But secondly, as Colorado's governor, in the future, when we have issues regarding base closing, highway funding, water issues, a Colorado that has one electoral vote 5/4 proportionate in virtually any scenario, is simply not going to have the ability to be influential compared to states in around our borders which have many more.
DOBBS: Two other states as you know, governor, have the very same provision, what's the problem?
OWENS: Well, actually, and you have to spend a lot of time on it like I have. Those states aren't anything like this. Maine and Nebraska have provisions, which could split their votes, but in the entire history of those two states never have. In our case, it would be split every election, proportionately. So there is a significant difference between those two states and what...
DOBBS: Yes, they follow Congressional...
OWENS: ... what our friend from Brazil -- yes, they do it by Congressional district. And it is a little different.
DOBBS: How in the -- surely you've talked about this, because this could be -- if this race is as close as John Zogby and others are suggesting, Colorado, if this amendment 36 were passed, you'd split the votes, as you're suggesting. In point in fact, Al Gore would have won the presidency in 2000, if this amendment 36 had been on your books in 2000, right?
OWENS: Absolutely. And if this election is as close as we anticipate, it could have a huge impact on this election. I would add, though, if California had proportional, George Bush would have been elected by, you know, 20 electoral votes, and if New York did the same. My problem is also we'd be the only state in the country that would be almost unilaterally disarming, by saying we're going to be first. If somebody wants to have a national debate on the electoral college, that's appropriate. But from my standpoint as governor of Colorado, this is bad for our state. Not just for my candidate this year, but for everybody in the future.
DOBBS: Well, as the saying goes, you all got there by yourselves. You've got to divided electorate right now, at least as far as the polls are suggesting. Where does amendment 36 stand in your polling? Will it win passage?
OWENS: You know, Lou, at this point, it's ahead in some polls. It's behind in others. It's a complicated process. So we're simply not sure. We have three weeks to go and I'm working hard against amendment 36. And some people on other side are doing the opposite.
DOBBS: The idea that it would be effectively retroactive to the 20004 election, to me is strikingly bizarre. But then again, I'm not an attorney, and I will always defer to those greater minds in the legal system. I'm sure you're prepared to fight on that basis as well, should it pass.
OWENS: We are. And it would be a shame because we would have a Florida-type situation, where a Colorado Supreme Court would rule perhaps one way, and the U.S. Supreme Court on a federal constitutional question, the other. And so it'd be once again a month-long process similar to Florida.
DOBBS: Governor Bill Owens, we thank you for being here. And it seems like...
OWENS: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: It seems like this year in all corners of this country, we're working very hard to make this a very interesting presidential race.
OWENS: That it will be. Thanks.
DOBBS: Governor, thank you.
Still ahead here, "Driven to Run." One veteran's fight for justice and support for men and women in uniform that began on the wake of September 11th has driven him to run for the first time for the U.S. Congress.
And on the eve of the final presidential presentation, tonight, we'll be talking with three of the country's top political journalists and I'll be joined by Molly Ivins, political columnist, author. She says time is running out for President Bush and Senator Kerry. She joins me next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Well, domestic issues, the key tomorrow night's so-called presidential debate. My next guest says that President Bush's domestic policy is weak. She also says several of the important domestic policy largely have been ignored by both Senator Kerry and President Bush.
Joining me now from Austin, Texas is Molly Ivins, national syndicated political columnist and author. Molly, good to have you here.
MOLLY IVINS, POLITICAL COLUMNIST: Hi, Lou.
DOBBS: What do you think, tomorrow, we're going hear the real deal from these candidates?
IVINS: I would like to say on behalf of all of the talking head pundits on television, I have no idea!
DOBBS: OK. Well, Molly, you are not making this easy. What do you think we will have happen here, or is it even worth discussing? And if not, we can move right on here.
IVINS: Well, obviously, none of us has any way of predicting what's going to happen in the debate tomorrow. That's one of those crystal ball things that I think we should be called on more often. What I do think is that -- I suppose it's not a very well-kept secret. A lot of political reporters make bets on politics. And I make money betting on politics. And you'll be happy to know that I don't have any money down yet.
DOBBS: Really, you're with that 5 percent of the undecided. What's taking you so long it make up your mind?
IVINS: Well, I just think this one is tighter than a tick. And I think it can be affected by events right up until make a week, maybe even five days out. The last four, five days of the campaign are pro forma, nobody's going to break anything big. But you can see things in one this tight could still well be persuaded by events, including tomorrow night.
DOBBS: When you say, as you put it in Texas terms, tighter than a tick. The fact of the matter is that, nearly everyone says, nearly every pundit says that at worst, Senator Kerry drew the last time, won the first or won both debates.
Why is that not having some impact?
IVINS: Well at least...
DOBBS: At least on your thinking.
IVINS: I think because people are still waiting to make up their minds. They want to see one more. And I think it really has been -- I think for undecided voters, those rare beings, I think this is really a tough year. I mean, if you really have an open mind on this race, it's very are -- there are a lot of things to worry about.
DOBBS: Well, you know, with that 5 percent stubborn undecideds, if you will, what in the world do you think it's going to take? What will be the tipping point?
We'll ask since you don't want to predict, for you yourself?
IVINS: Well, no. I've already made up my mind in terms of how I am going to vote. I just haven't made up my mind in terms of how I am going to bet. And what I'm betting is that we're going to see here in the last couple of weeks a whispering campaign against Teresa Kerry. That would be very typical of Karl Rove. And of course, a new burst of ads from these Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. And I think that is, you know -- that may be enough mud to stick. And unless the Kerry people are prepared to come back with a sharp attack.
DOBBS: Molly, with our hearts brimming with the sunshine that you have been pumping, we thank you for being here. And it's always good to talk with you.
IVINS: Nice to talk with you.
DOBBS: And I want you to cheer up now. It's an important election, but it's -- we can still be cheered up just a tad. Thanks a lot. Molly Ivins, from Austin, Texas.
Well, while most veterans appear to support President Bush, some disagree and do so passionately. One of them is Steve Brozak. Steve Brozak left a career on Wall Street right after the terrorist attacks of September 11. He did so because he felt compelled to return to active duty as a U.S. Marine. Colonel Brozak was disappointed in the treatment of our reservists and National Guardsmen as he served in Iraq. Now retired, he's making support of our men and women in uniform the centerpiece of his campaign for the U.S. Congress. Christine Romans reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you a Marine as well?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Semper fi, Marine.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Semper fi to you too.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Steve Brozak is a Marine, a lifelong Republican and no stranger to war.
STEVE BROZAK (D), NEW JERSEY CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I volunteered to go back on active duty right after 9/11, because I knew that we were in a real war to protect this democracy and to protect democracy worldwide.
ROMANS: He served in the Middle East and at the Pentagon, and came away outraged, he says, that poor planning in Washington and lack of an exit strategy for Iraq put National Guard and reservists in jeopardy.
So disillusioned with his government and his party, he became a Democrat, and is running for a New Jersey congressional seat.
BROZAK: People understand that we're fighting a war on terror that's threatening this democracy, but the one thing they don't want to be told is one thing today and another thing tomorrow. If you tell someone that they're going to be in country for 12 months, then you better make sure that they're in country for 12 months. If you then tell them that they have to do another three months and then another three months after that, that is lying to them. ROMANS: Brozak's opponent is two-term Republican incumbent Mark Ferguson, in a heavily Republican district. The former Marine is outfinanced and behind in the polls. But Brozak doesn't care about the odds.
BROZAK: There is an expression in the Marines Corps, lead, follow, or get the heck out of my way. If you see that there is a problem and you have the ability to change it, you have the ability to make a difference, I can't think of a worse crime than not trying to do something.
I'm Steve Brozak, I am looking to become your congressman.
JAIME GILMARTIN, BROZAK CAMPAIGN MANAGER: This race is very much a microcosm of the national race. Here you have somebody who's been in the war situation, who's been close to the military, who comes back and says, I have to question my government, I have to question my president.
ROMANS: A Wall Street businessman for nearly 20 years, Brozak also questions his president's support for shipping American jobs overseas. Those are jobs, he says, American troops will desperately need when they finally get home.
BROZAK: Hi, sir, my name is Steve Brozak...
ROMANS: Christine Romans, CNN, Westfield, New Jersey.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: And a reminder to vote in tonight's poll. The question -- do you believe it is possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties? Yes or no? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.
Still ahead, politically charged programming. Why some are calling the latest broadcast moves controversial campaign tactics. I'll be joined by three of the country's most prominent political journalists when we continue. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now, three of the country's top political journalists. From Washington, Ron Brownstein, national political correspondent, "L.A. Times." Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent, "Time" magazine. Marcus Mabry, chief of correspondents, "Newsweek," right here in New York.
Folks, good to have you here. We've got a tight race, at least according to most of the polls. After two debates, in which apparently Senator Kerry did well, Ron, why is this such a tight race?
RON BROWNSTEIN, LOS ANGELES TIMES: Well, Lou, in fact, the two debates have affected the race significantly. I mean, when we headed into the debate number one, in all the polls President Bush had a comfortable lead. In our "L.A. Times" poll right before the first debate he was up five points, and the debates have helped Senator Kerry in two distinct ways. One, they have begun to resolve -- not entirely, but helped to make some progress about the doubts about him that the Bush campaign effectively raised, especially in August and September.
And secondly, they shifted the focus toward President Bush's record, especially in that first debate on Iraq, where the country has been more closely divided. In fact, in your latest CNN poll, his approval rating is under 50 percent.
I think the third debate is going to be intriguing, because the president has some tough numbers to defend and trends on the economy and health care and things like that, but he had very strong arguments, stronger than people thought, on domestic issues in the second half of that debate. So I think a lot of Republicans are more optimistic than they expected to be heading into this final encounter about the debate.
DOBBS: Karen, do you think that we have to be a little careful here? Because, for example, "The Washington Post" poll, the ABC News poll shows President Bush ahead. The gains that Ron just cited, which would be true of our poll, the "L.A. Times" poll, simply don't hold up there, do they?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Yeah, but I think Ron is right. The thing to be looking at here...
DOBBS: Well, wait, wait, wait, Karen, Karen, you may think he is right, but do we have to be careful about that, because we have polls that are starting to diverge here?
TUMULTY: We do, but what I was going to say, however, is that all the polls have shown, in terms of if you are looking at motion, that Senator Kerry has made up a lot of ground over the last few weeks. Whether he's ahead by a couple of points or behind by a couple of points, what we know is this is an extremely close race.
DOBBS: Close race, Marcus, at this point, we just heard John Zogby say to us that he won't know -- he won't be comfortable with his forecast on this until the last weekend going into it.
Let's talk about some of the issues. The fact of the matter is, the Catholic Church is starting to weigh in against Senator Kerry because of his stand on abortion. What do you think of that?
MARCUS MABRY, NEWSWEEK: Well, actually, Lou, I think you have to look at this -- this thing is probably the most complicated race...
DOBBS: Absolutely.
MABRY: ... in recent memory. Maybe in a generation, we've had in this country. And again, another complicated issue is the Catholic Church. Many bishops, many conservative Catholic bishops, traditionalists, are coming out there and basically saying to their parishes, not always great success, because Catholic Americans are a pretty independent lot, as it usually goes. However, many archbishops and many even parish priests are saying, if you vote for John Kerry, it's a vote for abortion, and that's a sin. And so you are voting for a sin, and you need to actually, you know, confess that before you can actually receive communion. That's really serious for American Catholics who are believers.
But they also don't like to be told who to vote for.
But at the same time, there are other Catholics who -- actually, there is not a monolith in the church on this score. Many Catholics support Kerry.
TUMULTY: Can I say, Lou, too, that "Time" magazine, we did extensive polling on this for a cover story in June, and what we discovered is that Catholics who are most likely to be influenced by what the most conservative bishops are saying are probably George Bush voters already. That in fact, among true swing Catholic voters, our polls show something like 70 percent thought that the church simply should not be getting involved in politics.
DOBBS: What about Protestant churches, Ron, in their support for Bush? That's neither monolithic as being suggested here about the Catholic Church. There's a division there as well.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, here's the fascinating thing, Lou. Generations ago, really for most of the 20th century, the big dividing line and the way Americans voted in religious terms was by denomination. Catholics were more Democratic; Protestants were more Republican. Now you see the same trend both within Catholics and among Protestants as well, that is the more often you go to church, or the more likely you are to vote Republican. It really is a religious practice test.
In 2000, the single best predictor of how someone would vote was how often they went to church. It's kind of a striking fact. And it continues this time.
The Bush campaign is putting a lot of emphasis on organizing the religiously devout, and as Karen said, I think among the Catholics, clearly there is a big division in polling between those who go to church regularly and those who don't and how they vote. And I agree that it is with the group that leans most toward Bush to begin with, this will have the most effect.
But that is a signal feature of our politics, and I suspect we will see it very sharply again in 2004, just as we did in 2000.
DOBBS: Since we have abandoned secularism here for a few moments tonight, Karen, the Supreme Court agreeing to take up the Ten Commandments. Your thoughts? And its potential impact?
TUMULTY: Well, this is going to once again remind people that one of the big issues in this election is who is on this next Supreme Court? And it's almost certain that the next president is going to have one or two or possibly even three vacancies to fill in a court that on a lot of issues is dividing 5-4. DOBBS: And Marcus, Sinclair Broadcasting going ahead with the anti-Kerry documentary. What's your thought? Is this campaigning, or is this simply...
MABRY: Sinclair Broadcasting says this is news. They are saying that this is news and they are saying they actually invited John Kerry and his campaign to come on after the program, after the news program, and give their side of the story. It's pretty extraordinary, but we have private enterprise in America and they can do that if they choose. The Democrats have filed suit with the FEC. Good luck. We will see what happens.
DOBBS: Go ahead, Ron. Or go ahead, Karen, either one of you.
TUMULTY: Well, there used to be something in broadcasting called a Fairness Doctrine. That no longer applies.
DOBBS: Oh, we have moved way beyond fairness.
BROWNSTEIN: To truth. Can I jump back to the Supreme Court point from a moment ago? Because I think it really is a useful place to jump off to think about tomorrow's debate. There was a very interesting moment toward the end of the second debate, where they were asked -- each asked a question about the Supreme Court.
The president in his answers on social issues and judicial appointments really sent out a very clear conservative message to his base. He was very comfortable trying to divide the electorate on ideological terms. We saw the same things in his closing statement about the role of government in helping the economy to grow.
Senator Kerry's answer was very revealing. He said, his ideal judge would be someone you couldn't tell from their opinions whether they were a liberal or conservative. It was of a piece with what he did earlier in the debate, where he came out against labels. He said, you know...
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Ron, do you really believe that?
BROWNSTEIN: No, I don't. But I do think -- I think that what you are seeing here is that Kerry wants to blur ideological distinctions as much as possible and get down to the particulars on issues like health care and education and jobs, and President Bush wants to cumulate this choice for voters into as much as possible kind of an ideological, more government, less government, social conservative or not. I think you'll see that very clearly, Lou, and a very good tip-off was the way they handled those social issues at end of that last debate.
MABRY: I really think that they are actually going for two different strategies here. I think given how close this race is going to be, the president and Karl Rove has decided -- and they've been talking about this for months -- it's about getting out their base. Their passionate supporters, ideologically, who are... DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) undecided...
MABRY: Absolutely. Undecided...
DOBBS: They've had a belly full of that.
MABRY: Exactly. They couldn't care less anymore. You might be undecided today; you may be undecided three weeks from now...
DOBBS: Pick a side.
MABRY: We're going to go for our base. The Democrats are still having a reach-out strategy. They are still trying to go for the middle of the road voters, for the undecided, for the swing voters. And we are going to see I think that tomorrow night in the difference in the presentation of the two candidates.
BROWNSTEIN: Real quick, Lou...
DOBBS: I am sorry, I have got to turn to Karen very quickly on this, if I may.
TUMULTY: Which is why one issue that you are going to probably hear John Kerry talk a lot about is stem cell research, which is once again in the news because of Christopher Reeve's death, and this is an issue that appeals very much to swing voters, and particularly to highly educated women.
DOBBS: Well, let's talk about highly educated women and swing voters. Stem cell research -- today claims made by the Democratic ticket that with John Kerry in office, that we could see remarkable strides ahead. That's pretty strong stuff, isn't, Karen?
TUMULTY: It is, and particularly it was unfortunate for Senator Edwards the way he phrased it, where he essentially said if John Kerry is elected that people like -- who were in a situation like Christopher Reeve would be walking. I mean, this is a -- this is sort of...
DOBBS: Let's say what it is.
TUMULTY: ... outlandish claim to say.
DOBBS: Yeah, it's outlandish. In point of fact, Marcus, I don't know what you think, does the word irresponsible come to mind?
MABRY: Irresponsible comes to mind. It's a huge flub. Flub comes to mind. The fact is, that kind of -- the more Democrats make that kind of a comment, which is outrageous, kind of like Al Gore inventing the Internet, the more they are going to get hammered by the Republicans for that.
DOBBS: Ron, you wanted to say something? We've got 20 seconds.
BROWNSTEIN: I say real quick from what Marcus was saying before, the Republicans and Democrats have different visions of how many people are going to vote here. The Republicans are thinking maybe 110 to 112. Natural increase in population from 2000. Democrats are expecting a big increase, up to maybe 117, 118 million electorate, and that is why they are focusing perhaps more of their message on the swing voters, who they are trying to bring in, casual, occasional voters, to enlarge the electorate and change the basic structure of the choice.
DOBBS: Ron, thank you. Karen, thank you very much. Marcus, thank you.
We continue tomorrow with a run-up to the third presidential so- called debate. Thank you, folks.
Still ahead here, the results of tonight's poll. A preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll: More than two-thirds of you say it is possible to successfully prosecute the war on radical Islamist terrorists without sacrificing at least some of our civil liberties.
Thanks for being with us. Please join us here tomorrow. "Time" magazine's investigative reporters Donald Barlett and Jim Steele join us to talk about their new book on the decline of health care in America and proposed solutions, as well.
On "Democracy at Risk," four years later, is Florida ready? Elections reform expert professor Martha Mahoney joins us.
And President Bush and Senator Kerry will square off on issues critical to the American middle class in round three of the so-called presidential debates. We'll have a preview for you. Please be with us.
For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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