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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Some Problems in Early Voting in Florida; Nader Could Tip Balance in Battleground States

Aired October 18, 2004 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, what we didn't want to hear: problems with Florida's early voting from one end of the state to the other. We'll have a live report.
Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader could tip the balance not only in Florida, but also in other battleground states. Nader's supporters say he's simply giving voters what we deserve: a real choice. Ralph Nader is my guest.

The United Nations faces a widening scandal, the biggest in its history. Kofi Annan's son is now one of those at the center of the investigation into the multibillion-dollar oil-for-food ripoff.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NILES GARDINER, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: It is a scandal which potentially can bring down the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan himself.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: The presidential candidates may not want to focus on illegal immigration, but tens of millions of Americans do, and the citizens of one small community near the Mexican border are fighting back. We'll have that special report.

And the battle to keep American jobs in this country. Union leaders say they'll hold Senator Kerry to his promise to review all trade agreements, if he's elected.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Maybe we'll outsource the CEOs. Maybe we can offshore the CFOs. Maybe we can find those good corporate citizens again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: The president of the International Machinists Union is my guest tonight.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 18. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, polling places have just closed in Florida after the first day of what is called early voting, and already reports of problems with Florida's voting system.

Florida is only one of several states where voters can cast their ballots this year early. But Florida is a critical swing state, and, tonight, both President Bush and Senator Kerry are campaigning in Florida seeking the state's 27 electoral votes.

Tonight, we have reports on the voting problems in Florida and several other states as well, and we have reports on the latest from the campaigns.

We begin with John Zarrella in Miami -- John.

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF: Lou, well, as you might expect, all eyes were on Florida. You kind of get the sense that there are those out there who are just waiting to see if Florida messes up when it starts to vote, and, in fact, there were some glitches today. But they didn't all have to do with electronic voting machines and the new systems that are out there, and, in fact, they weren't widespread.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZARRELLA (voice-over): On the first day of early voting in Florida, supervisors of elections heard the two words that make them cringe, "technical glitch."

BRENDA SNIPES, BROWARD COUNTY SUPERVISOR OF ELECTIONS: I do see that the first day of early voting, we do have some technical things that need to be worked out, and I think that's just almost the nature of the beast, but we're on top of it.

ZARRELLA: In a state much maligned for its seeming recent inability to run a problem-free election, the issues elections officials statewide dealt were more spotty than chronic. While voting machines worked, support equipment didn't always.

In Broward County, voters stood in line for more than one hour.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's easier to get a flu shot than to vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very frustrated. I've been here since quarter after 8:00 this morning.

ZARRELLA: Computers at several of the 14 polling places open in Broward County were not talking to computers at the supervisor's office.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

ZARRELLA: Across the state, there were a variety of issues, some technical, but not all.

In Orange County, which includes Orlando, computers went down for 10 minutes, reason unknown.

In Palm Beach County, a state legislator said she was not given a complete absentee ballot.

And in Duval County, the supervisor of elections resigned, citing health reasons.

And while the state began to vote, in a Broward County federal courtroom, a trial began to determine whether electronic voting machines used in 15 counties comply with state statutes in the event of a recount. U.S. Representative Robert Wexler, who brought the suit, charges there's no way to know voter intent because the machines do not offer a paper trail.

REP. ROBERT WEXLER (D), FLORIDA: It's not possible to have a manual recount. That violates not only Florida law, but the federal law.

RON LABASKY, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: The intention of the voter is reflected because the machine records what the voter did.

ZARRELLA: Attorneys for Wexler opened the trial questioning state elections division employees who defended the e-machine technology.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZARRELLA (on camera): Wexler says he understands that even if he does win, there isn't enough time to change to a new system of voting in those counties. What he is hoping for, he told me this afternoon, was that monitors would be assigned to these voting places in order to ensure that any irregularities do not go unnoticed-- Lou.

DOBBS: John, what's the next step in that case?

ZARRELLA: The next step is it's going to be two or three days at least for the trial. They're continuing to interview witnesses today and for the next couple of days. Then the judge will have to rule and could offer some remedies.

Again, that one remedy that Wexler hopes would be afforded or, of course, the judge could rule against Wexler and say there's nothing wrong with the machines and they do go ahead and provide the kind of technology and assurance that is part of the state's statutes -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you.

John Zarrella reporting live from Miami.

Florida, of course, not the only state facing voting problems and potential problems in this election. There are new challenges to the integrity of our voting system across much of the country because of difficulties with provisional ballots, absentee ballots and e-voting machines.

Lisa Sylvester has our report in Democracy at Risk. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After Florida in 2000, Congress passed the Help America Vote Act. It gave states nearly $3 billion to upgrade their voting systems. But even with the new law, this year's election results could end up right back in court.

ROBERT RICHIE, CENTER FOR VOTING AND DEMOCRACY: If it's within a thousand votes, as it was in Florida, in a key swing state that decides the presidency, I think it's -- the odds are that the Supreme Court will once again be making a decisive decision that easily could be seen as tipping the vote one way or the other.

SYLVESTER: One out of four voters is expected to use new electronic voting machines. But of the 29 states using e-voting, only Nevada has a paper trail to verify results.

PROF. AVI RUBIN, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: If there's any kind of controversy, we have nothing that we can do to get reassurance that we have the right answer.

SYLVESTER: Other issues could end up before the U.S. Supreme Court in a close election.

Absentee ballots in Pennsylvania were sent out late. A lawsuit is seeking to give oversees voters an extra two weeks to mail them back.

A ballot amendment in Colorado would split the nine electoral votes and could ultimately decide who is the next president.

In states like Ohio, provisional ballots are being debated by the courts. The Help America Vote Act requires ballots be given to voters whose names do not show up on the voter roles. If it's later proven they are registered, the provisional ballots are supposed to count.

DOUG CHAPIN, ELECTIONLINE.ORG: What we're seeing, though, is that different states interpret the provisional voting requirement differently, meaning that voters in some states will have their provisional ballots counted and others will not, especially those voters who don't go to the right precinct and cast their ballot.

SYLVESTER: And then there are 18 states, including Missouri, that are still using the old punch-card technology. So, just like 2000, this election could hinge again on those dangling and hanging chads.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: One problem is that there are no uniform standards. Congress appropriated money to upgrade the election systems, but many states left it up to the counties to decide what action to take. So battleground state Ohio, for instance, is using four different voting systems -- Lou.

DOBBS: Lisa, thank you very much.

The latest polls show President Bush opening a slight lead over Senator Kerry among likely voters. On average, the five latest polls give President Bush a 5 percent lead.

President Bush today launched one of his strongest attacks yet against Senator Kerry. President Bush said Senator Kerry's strategy on the war on terror would lead to a major defeat for this country.

Senior White House Correspondent John King, covering the president's campaign tonight, joining me from St. Pete Beach, Florida, just outside St. Petersburg -- John.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: And, Lou, that speech earlier today from the president delivered in New Jersey. No Republican has carried that state since this president's father back in 1988. But some polls show it a dead heat.

The president today giving what the White House said in advance would be a major policy address. Instead, it turned out to be much more a scathing political indictment of Senator Kerry on what Mr. Bush says is a record that proves he is unfit to take command of the war on terrorism.

The president saying that during this campaign. the senator has offered conflicting positions on Iraq, insulted U.S. allies in the war on terrorism. Mr. Bush saying all of that, though, was consistent with what he called a 20-year record proving Mr. Kerry was on the wrong side of national security.

The president, for example, said Senator Kerry has repeatedly voted to slash intelligence funding, voted against major weapons systems and voiced reservations about using U.S. military power against rogue regimes and against terrorist organizations. The president's bottom line: Senator Kerry is too weak to take command of the war on terror.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He has consistently looked for excuses to constrain American power. He's consistently shown poor judgment on the great issues of war and peace.

When one senator among a hundred holds a policy of weakness, it doesn't make a lot of difference. But the presidency is an office of great responsibility and consequence.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now Democrats complained that Mr. Bush was distorting the president's record, trying to take political advantage of the September 11 attacks on the United States. Mr. Bush in Florida tonight.

Lou, the scathing attack today foreshadows a bruising final two weeks of the campaign, also signals that the White House will play to the president's greatest strengths. In those polls you just mentioned, Mr. Bush has a 22-point advantage when the voters are asked who can best handle the war on terrorism.

Senator Kerry trying to close the campaign with a focus on health care and other pocketbook issues. Mr. Bush wants to define security as the threshold issue in the campaign.

Again, Mr. Bush here in Florida tonight, one of those states where, as you noted at the top of the program, early voting underway. Another state, Texas. Former President George Herbert Walker Bush and Barbara Bush casting their votes today in the Houston area. Texas not in play in this election, a certain Bush victory, but, tonight at least, two votes in the Bush-Cheney column -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you. Hard to imagine that this campaign race could get any more bare knuckled than it already is.

John King, our senior White House correspondent, reporting.

Senator Kerry spent this entire day in Florida, there trying, of course, to win the support of undecided voters. Senator Kerry also campaigned on the issue of homeland security and the war on terror. Senator Kerry strongly criticized President Bush's health-care policies.

Frank Buckley reports from Tampa, Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry looked for support among seniors in the sunshine state as Florida began its early voting. Kerry also in Florida to deliver one of a series of speeches on policy issues that Kerry aides are calling closing arguments of the campaign. Health-care costs the message of this day.

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I suppose it wouldn't really be fair to say that George Bush has done nothing at all about the high cost of health care. He's actually made it worse.

BUCKLEY: While the Kerry campaign focuses on domestic policy in the final days of the political season, headlines like this one in "The Washington Post" about the former top general in Iraq, Ricardo Sanchez, reporting dire supply shortages in a letter to the Pentagon last winter, provide Kerry with openings to go after President Bush on Iraq.

KERRY: The day after General Sanchez wrote his letter, George Bush went out and told the American people our troops were properly equipped. Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and that he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

BUCKLEY: Bush campaign officials say Kerry's criticism is hypocritical, given his vote against $87 billion in post-war funding for Iraq. Earlier, Kerry preemptively responded to expected criticisms from the President Bush himself on Kerry's national security credentials.

KERRY: I bled for our country as a young man, and I will defend our country as president of the United States of America.

BUCKLEY (on camera): Kerry advisers say Senator Kerry will continue to criticize President Bush on Iraq, while simultaneously laying out his own proposals for domestic issues.

Meanwhile, Senator Kerry remains in Florida tonight. His message to supporters here: Participate in the early voting process. As Senator Kerry put it, if you vote early, you won't have to stay up too late on November 2.

Frank Buckley, CNN, Tampa.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Still ahead here, the presidential candidates seem reluctant, at best, to talk about illegal immigration, but citizens in one small community say they have been invaded by illegal aliens, and they're doing something about it in Temecula, California.

Disturbing new evidence tonight about the vulnerability of our airliners to terrorists. We'll have that special report for you.

And independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader could play a critical role in this election. Again, Ralph Nader is my guest tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: In Broken Borders tonight, residents of a Southern California city are simply outraged by the invasion of illegal aliens into their neighborhoods. These citizens say federal officials, in fact, have deceived them, and now they're demanding that the nation's immigration laws be enforced.

Casey Wian reports from Temecula, California.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Temecula is 70 miles north of the Mexican border. It's a mixture of vineyards, up-scale residential neighborhoods and, in several places, groups of illegal aliens looking for work. Residents are complaining about day laborers loitering outside schools and harassing passersby.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am mad at the men who hire them and the women. Our government doesn't enforce the law.

WIAN: Saturday, they really in support of Temecula's mayor who wrote to the Border Patrol officially requesting they patrol three street corners where illegal aliens congregate and clear the areas of illegal immigrants. ARNIE CHANDLER, ANTI-ILLEGAL ALIEN ACTIVIST: We feel that the border is open and that there is an invasion of illegal aliens here.

WIAN: But interior enforcement or arresting illegal aliens away from the border is no longer a priority. This summer, a dozen Temecula-based Border Patrol agents arrested 450 illegal aliens in 19 days in public places. The practice was stopped following complaints from immigrants rights advocates and one local congressman.

(on camera): Activists who were demanding more interior enforcement of the nation's immigration laws consider Temecula the eye of the storm. They say they've been deceived by federal officials.

(voice-over): In August, Homeland Security Undersecretary Asa Hutchinson visited Temecula to explain the administration's position, but only angered locals by saying interior enforcement hasn't stopped. He's also claimed Americans don't have the will to uproot millions of illegal aliens.

CHANDLER: We want to show him that we believe the majority of citizens definitely have the will to have our borders secured.

WIAN: Homeland security officials say their priority is arresting alien smugglers. These residents say they should crack down on illegal aliens and their employers as well.

Casey Wian, CNN, Temecula, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: This country's now porous borders are only one of several national security threats that this government has failed to address. Another threat certainly is the government's failure to screen cargo that's shipped on passenger airliners. The 9/11 commission called it a major vulnerability.

Kathleen Koch has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Machines to screen luggage, instead checking boxes of cargo for bombs. CNN got the first look at this test underway at three airports. Safety officials call it promising and insist cargo screening is at an all-time high.

MARK HATFIELD, TSA SPOKESMAN: We added 100 new cargo inspectors last year, and we just got funding to get another 100 of them. So that human element goes into the mix. We're increasing the number of dog teams, the canine detection units.

KOCH; Carrying cargo brings in roughly 10 percent of passenger airline revenue, but, since Congress in 1990 first suggested all cargo be checked for explosives, airlines and shippers worried about delays have balked. JIM MAY, AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION: It would have the potential of destroying that industry. Again, the goal that we're trying to achieve here is the maximum amount of screening possible, given the technology that's available.

KOCH: In January, the government required airlines to begin randomly inspecting cargo, but federal and airline officials admit most air cargo still goes unchecked. For families who lost loved ones aboard Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988, it's a troubling fact.

PAUL HUDSON, FATHER OF PAN AM 103 VICTIM: I would call on the airlines to voluntarily either ban cargo entirely or to screen whatever they're taking. The amount of revenue they would lose is very small compared to the consequences, should we be attacked as the Russian airliners were last month.

KOCH: Though it's not believed bombs and cargo were responsible in those cases, the U.S. in September began requiring all cargo on non-stop flights from Moscow to the U.S. be screened for explosives. It's a precaution Israel already takes for all of its air cargo.

REP. EDWARD MARKEY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: It is possible to screen every piece of cargo which goes on to passenger planes in the United States. It is not question of technology. It is a question of will.

KOCH: Boston's Logan Airport has tested an X-ray system for screening large amounts of air cargo, and the government is about to announce $24 million in grants to six companies developing other screening technology.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOCH: Still, experts say it would take up to five years to get even proven technology in place to screen the cargo on the U.S.'s 33,000 flights every day.

So, for now, Congress is ordering their random cargo screening be tripled and ordering also closer scrutiny of those who send shipments on passenger aircraft -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kathleen, a troubling report more than three years after September 11.

Kathleen Koch.

Thank you.

Still ahead here tonight, a widening scandal at the United Nations, how the oil-for-food program fraud may have benefited a member of Kofi Annan's family.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GARDINER: I do believe that it is increasingly difficult for the U.S. secretary general to remain in place while the investigation into oil for food proceeds. (END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: We'll have a special report.

And then presidential candidate Ralph Nader says Democrats won't be able to blame him should Senator Kerry lose this election. The independent presidential candidate is my guest tonight.

And then, a critical vote in this election, the Latino vote. Leading journalist Betty Cortina of "Latina" magazine is my guest.

All of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Tonight, new developments in the multibillion-dollar scandal in the United Nations oil-for-food program. Investigators are now looking at whether the scandal benefited not only Saddam Hussein, but also staff of the United Nations and the son of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Kitty Pilgrim reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KITTY PILGRIM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The U.N. oil-for-food scandal is getting bigger and bigger, the accusations and the investigations.

GARDINER: We do have simultaneously at least seven or eight major investigations going on into the oil-for-food scandal, making it undoubtedly the biggest scandal in the history of the United Nations.

PILGRIM: A $4 billion ripoff, as estimated by the Government Accountability Office, and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein bilked the program under the supervision of the United Nations.

Questions now turn to the role of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan's son, Kojo Annan, who at one time worked for Cotecna, one of the companies under suspicion.

Today, a U.N. spokesman was asked about the press reports of a possible federal criminal probe.

STEPHANE DUJARRIC, UNITED NATIONS SPOKESMAN: We have not received any information, either officially or unofficially, from U.S. federal, judicial authorities regarding an investigation into Mr. Annan's activities.

But I will stress that, as you know, the Voelcker panel is looking into the issue of Kojo Annan's employment with Cotecna while it was under contract for the oil-for-food program.

PILGRIM: At hearings earlier this month, Congress was outraged.

REP. TIM MURPHY (R), PENNSYLVANIA: U.N. member countries and U.N. personnel continually turned a blind eye to the corruption of a program designed to get humanitarian assistance to the people living under one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

PILGRIM: An executive from the Swiss company Cotecna answers questions at that congressional hearing earlier this month. At issue was whether the company, among others, allowed Saddam Hussein to cheat on the program.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PILGRIM: U.S. Representative Joe Barton, chairman of the House committee investigating the scandal, has written a letter to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan demanding U.N. records. He says, quote, "The evidence suggests U.N. officials and member states encouraged or at least tacitly condoned the abuses" -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.

Well, still ahead here tonight, the Nader factor, the independent presidential candidate, whom Democrats call the spoiler, will tell us why he's staying in the race. Ralph Nader is my guest next to talk about his presidency.

And then, President Bush and Senator Kerry making a pitch to Latino voters. We'll talk with "Latina"'s magazine Betty Cortina about this key voting block's impact on the election.

And then, free trade agreements and the millions of manufacturing jobs lost in this country. The president of the International Machinists Union will be here to tell us what must be done to stop the shipment of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: The presidential election now only two weeks away, and Democrats are pleading with my next guest to pull out of this race. Independent candidate Ralph Nader has the support of at least 1 percent of likely voters in our latest poll. But Democrats say that's enough to take away support from Senator Kerry in several battleground states.

Ralph Nader will be on the ballot in at least 34 states come November 2, and Mr. Nader insists he is not quitting and he will soon launch a multistate campaign tour.

Ralph Nader joins me now from Washington, D.C.

Good to have you with us.

RALPH NADER (I), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, Lou. DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, the head of the Democratic National Committee, pleading with you to step out of this race. What is your -- what's your reaction?

NADER: It's political bigotry. They're trying to get us off the ballot in Ohio and Pennsylvania. They're spending millions of dollars literally, hiring Republican corporate law firms, like Kirkland Ellis, Ken Starr's old law firm in Ohio, and they -- they're such whiners, Lou. They have not actively registered nine million African-American voters, 90 percent of whom who would vote for Democrats and swing the swing states.

I tell Terry McAuliffe and John Kerry, look, this country does not belong to you or the Republicans. You have to earn your votes. You're not entitled to them. Let's have more competition, more voices and choices on the ballot, which is what the American people want, so we can pay attention to the real big issues, instead of the horse race and tactics.

What about a conservative president presiding over the shipment of whole industries and jobs to a communist dictatorship in China which is now our labor enforcement arm with -- for Wal-Mart? It's ridiculous.

DOBBS: And, Ralph, let me -- I want to get to those issues that you are bringing forward that the candidates of the Republican and Democratic Parties have not at least with either any regularity or significance brought forth. But you just said the Democrats have failed to register 9 million African-Americans in this country. Where do you get that number?

NADER: From Reverend Jesse Jackson and Professor Walters and others. In other words, there are a lot of unregistered African- Americans and Latinos who would vote for the Democrats. The problem is that the Democrats are in the grip of these corporate campaign consultants who get 15 percent of every television buys. So, the money goes for 30 seconds ads, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) against Bush and Bush against Kerry, that are turning off people. They have no content and no information. And if the money is used in the grassroots to mobilize the neighbors and communities and register the votes and show that the politics has a real meaning for people's daily lives, as my book "The Good Fight" tried to point out, the campaign consultants wouldn't get 15 percent of that money. I mean, it's amazing how corrupt the political system has become. Selling our elections and selling our government to the highest bidders, mostly commercial interest, who want something in return, that usually isn't good for workers or customers.

DOBBS: And specifically, you address the issue of trade policies, and the labor policies in this country. What are the two principle issues beyond that you find resonating with your supporters in this election?

NADER: It's living wage. Most people think they should earn enough to live on. The minimum wage is bottom. It's the lowest it's been in purchasing power since 1949, and the economy has increased 10 fold since then. I don't know what these politicians and the heads of Wal-Mart and McDonald's and all the low wage chains are thinking when they make three, four, five million a year, these executives, some making $7,000 an hour on the average. And they've got workers they force to earn $7, $8 an hour. The greed of corporations today, and this has been documented by "Business Week," "Fortune," you've alluded to it, the greed, lack of law and order against corporate crime, fraud and abuse is unprecedented in American history.

The "New York Times," Gretchen -- Morgan Gretchenson (sic), a Pulitzer Prize winner, said Sunday that corporate scandals even now are expanding. They're expanding, because there's been no real crash down, neither Bush nor Kerry are calling as the Nader/Camejo campaign is for a crackdown of corporate crime fraud and abuse against workers, against pension, against workers, against customers, against the environment, such a double standard here.

DOBBS: Ralph Nader, are you absolutely committed, without question, even if you were to be told point-blank you would cost John Kerry the election if you remained in the election tonight, would you consider stepping down?

NADER: The future of this country and the future of the people in this country in relations to (UNINTELLIGIBLE) are too important to play tiddlywinks. If John Kerry loses to George Bush instead of land sliding him as he should if he stood up for the working people in this country, it's because George W. Bush took more votes from John Kerry, than the Nader/Camejo ticket. Whatever happened to underdogs -- whatever happened to right of underdogs in our elections to represent tens of millions of American underdogs pushed around, underpaid, denied healthcare, ignored, excluded while they do the work of the country everyday? It's terrible. We have to have a new political system.

DOBBS: Support for the underdog used to be, certainly, we'll find out if it is, but used to be one of the primary elements of the American character. Ralph Nader, we thank you for sharing your time here with us tonight. As always, very good to talk with you.

NADER: Thank you very much, Lou.

DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of our "Poll Tonight." Do you believe Ralph Nader should keep his name on the ballot?

As I said in at least 34 states. Cast your vote please at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later in the broadcast.

Taking a look at some of "Your Thoughts."

Frank Hickman in Omaha, Nebraska, "We must find a way to unite, not as Republicans, Democrats, or independents, but as citizens of the best democracy on the planet. Corporate America and other special interest groups have the money and influence to shape government, but they still need our votes to get it accomplished."

And Russell Pang, in Kaneohe, Hawaii, "Please help me understand, if 95 percent of incoming containers aren't inspected and three million illegal immigrants annually cross our borders, what exactly is the role of homeland security?"

We love hearing from you. Send us "Your Thoughts" at loudobbs@cnn.com. Send us your name an address. Each of you who's e- mail is read on the broadcast receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."

We reported here, as you know, extensively on what is expected to be a key voting block in this election, Latino, Hispanics. The presidential candidates are campaign hard to Hispanic voters more in this election certainly than any other in history. My guess tonight has interviewed both majority party candidates for "Latina," a bilingual magazine for Hispanic women in this country.

Betty Cortina is editorial director for "Latina" and is with here in New York tonight. Betty, good to have you here.

BETTY CORTINA, "LATINA" MAGAZINE: Thank you, thanks for having me.

DOBBS: How important do you think the Latina, Hispanic vote will be this year?

CORTINA: We'll it's huge. It will be huge because so really important states like Florida, like Texas, like California and New York, Pennsylvania. Incredibly important states that emerged this year, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, which really -- you know there was a lot of talk last year about -- or during the last election about the electoral votes in Florida. If you add Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, their electoral votes really are just about outnumbering Florida electoral college. So, both in popular election and electoral college, they kind of balance themselves out and this where is the population lives.

DOBBS: So what is -- you've talked to both candidates, which in your judgment, your the editorial director, you tell us.

CORTINA: Well, actually, we didn't talk to both candidates. John Kerry sat with us in California after a speech he delivered and George Bush would only answer questions via e-mail.

DOBBS: Via e-mail. So, you communicated then, I guess that's correct to say.

CORTINA: We communicated.

DOBBS: Based on that communication, verbal and electronic, which of these candidates do you think is the most compelling?

CORTINA: It's interesting, because in the interviews, they pretty much said everything they've been saying. President Bush's interview was really similar to his State of the Union/Republican nomination speech, so it was really about his policies, what he's done, what he's planning to do. We tried ask very personal questions...

DOBBS: When you say that, I couldn't think of much more that he could say, if he didn't say what he was thinking, what he was going to going to do, but...

CORTINA: Well, we really asked questions that want to go -- we wanted to go a bit above policy.

DOBBS: In your sense, Betty, which of these two candidates by your likes and your interests, and that being certainly vested in the Hispanic community of this country, which this is most compelling to you?

CORTINA: It really depends. And I myself am a little torn, very much like a lot of Hispanic women. I'm registered independent. And it depends where you come from. You know, we talked a lot about a voting block and how in many ways it is and in many ways it's not. And if you ask, for example, Cubans in South Florida, they tend to be incredibly Republican...

DOBBS: Very Republican.

CORTINA: ... for all sorts of reasons not the which is a political stance against Cuba. If you talk to Mexican Americans in Texas, California, Arizona, life is a little bit different. So...

DOBBS: In Texas, the Hispanic voters went strongly for President Bush.

CORTINA: Strongly for President Bush. That may be very, very different in California and Arizona and New Mexico, in particularly where 40 percent of the population is Hispanic. So, it depend on where you are. If you're really...

DOBBS: You know, this is one -- this, to me, is a description you're giving us, Betty, of a very healthy picture, in which there is no monolithic view, based on ethnicity.

I mean, you're describing and America the way it's supposed to be, aren't you?

CORTINA: Well and it's -- I hope so.

DOBBS: When I say that, it's not that way in every respect of this country right now, unfortunately.

CORTINA: Absolutely. And unfortunately, when we talked about the Hispanic voting block, it's been very different. But yes, I think what it requires is all the candidates to really understand that this electorate -- this electorate is much more sophisticated than they've given them credit for.

DOBBS: Well, in that, they share -- the Hispanic voters share something in common with all voters irrespective of ethnicity or race, often underestimated by politicians. Betty Cortina of "Latina" magazine, thanks for being here.

CORTINA: Thank you, thanks for having me.

DOBBS: Still ahead, "Exporting America," why one powerful union leader says overseas outsourcing to cheap labor markets is nothing more than economic terrorism. Thomas Buffenbarger, says it's time for Americans to stand up to corporate greed. He's my guest next.

And election day is rapidly approaching, early voting, already under way as we've report. I'll be joined by our panel of top political journalists when we continue. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Thomas Buffenbarger joins me now from Dallas, Texas. Tom is the president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. Tom, it's a great pleasure to have you here.

You have said that if Senator Kerry whom you and your union represent is elected that you'll hold him to his promise to review all of the free trade agreements over the course of 120 days. Are you hopeful that that would have any effective?

THOMAS BUFFENBARGER, PRESIDENT, IAM: Lou, it's just the beginning to review those agreements. The fact is we have to go back and change those agreements. Today, a study just came out from Cornell University and the University of Massachusetts that has outlined that this year, 2004, a half a million more jobs leave this country; 99,000 to China, 124,000 to Mexico and the rest elsewhere in the world. We have to do something now substantial and meaningful with the trade agreements to keep jobs in America.

DOBBS: Tom, I'd like to roll Senator Kerry's comments on outsourcing in the third presidential debates, if I could ask -- if I could ask you to listen to this, as we roll this videotape.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Outsourcing is going to happen. I've acknowledged that in union halls across the country. I've had shop stewards stand up and say, will you promise me you will stop all this outsourcing. And I've looked them in the eye and I've said no, I can't do that. What I can promise you is that I will make the playing field as fair as possible. That I will for instance make certain that with respect to the tax system, that you, as a worker in America, are not subsidizing the loss of your job.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: What was your reaction when you heard Senator Kerry say that, Tom?

BUFFENBARGER: Lou, both candidates bobbled that question terribly. I screamed at my television set. I wanted to answer that question. We're talking about taking away probably the most valuable thing any American worker has, their job. From that job emanates all the good things America has to offer. I would have looked at a union member, I would have looked at a steward, I would have looked at an American worker and said we're going to fight to keep your job in America. If that means we have to stake a position, put down a marker that jobs belong here and your job belongs here, then we should do it and not be afraid to say it. Protecting our ability to make our prosperity and make the means of our defense is essential to a strong and safe America.

DOBBS: Tom Buffenbarger, we thank you for being here, the head of the International Machinists Union.

Coming up next, a bounce for Bush. A new poll shows one of the widest margins yet between President Bush and Senator Kerry. We'll be talking about that and a great deal more with three of this country's top political journalists. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Well, our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows President Bush with what is an eight-point lead over Senator Kerry among likely voters nationwide. Early voting problems as we've reported here tonight in Florida's Orange, Palm Beach and Broward counties. Both candidates campaigning in the battleground state tonight. Now here to help me assess these developments, Ron Brownstein of the "L.A. Times," Karen Tumulty, "TIME" magazine, Roger Simon, "U.S. News & World Report." Great to have you here. Let's talk about these poll results, most recent four results. I have to admit I have not looked at the "Washington Post" tracking poll today, but about a 4 to 5 percent average result. What's your take, Ron?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": You're right, Lou. The average is closer than that CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup, the widest margin we have seen among likely voters. It's been a very volatile measure in the last few years, the CNN/Gallup likely voters screen...

DOBBS: Are you criticizing our poll here, Ron?

BROWNSTEIN: It -- what -- it has been a volatile measure the last few years. It's obviously the widest we have right now. But all polls agree, whether talking about private polls or public polls, there has been some movement toward President Bush in the last few days. I think the key question is is this a temporary blip or has something fundamental happened in the race. Most polls have it still closer than Gallup but there has been a tilt in his direction. The thing that has to concern John Kerry is that even though he's had good reviews in all three debates just as he had good reviews at the convention, he really has been unable to establish a lead over President Bush. The concern for President Bush, in a number of these polls, he's still under 50 percent and under 50 percent in job approval.

DOBBS: A brilliant (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to my read, diligently was pointing out that some of the numbers were moving above 50 percent. What's your take on that, Ron?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I agree. I mean, I think what you've got is you've got the polls -- that, to me, is sort of the key tipping point here. In the CNN Gallup, "Newsweek" and the ABC "Washington Post," President Bush has pushed his support back above 50 percent for the first time since the debates began. That's very important, Lou, because historically incumbents tend to run right about at their final number. Most undecided voters this late in the campaign are resistant about the incumbent. So for Bush, I think I'd watch that more closely than the spread between him and Kerry. I'd watch where he is relative to 50, and right now, we have differing views on that in the polls.

TUMULTY: And of course, there are two things that President Bush, though, has to be concerned about, are the fact that the overall registered voter number is much, much closer, which suggests that turnout could be a real determinant in this race. And also, of course, both public and what the campaigns are saying in their private polls in the battleground states shows Senator Kerry doing a lot better than he is in those national polls.

SIMON: I think Karen has made an excellent point about turnout. Democratic strategists told me they just want to stay close enough in the polls to get in field goal range and kick that field goal to win, and the field goal is their get-out-the-vote effort. Those people who don't go on talk shows and who aren't talking heads, who work below the radar screen and who have been working for several months now, in fact almost a year now in key battleground states to get out the vote for John Kerry.

DOBBS: Do we have a sense, though, Roger whether Democrats or Republicans have advantage in these ground battles? Which is bringing the greater number of ground troops, which is the most effective in their organization as we move into these final days?

SIMON: We do not. Republicans last time in their own polling showed George Bush winning the popular vote by 4 percent. We all know that he lost the popular vote. The conclusion was that the Republicans didn't do a good enough job getting out their vote, and they have been working on that for the last four years.

There is indication that Democrats are registering more new voters than Republicans, but there's also been a long-time trend that first time registrants for some reason don't go to the polls in any great numbers.

DOBBS: In that regard, Karen, Ralph Nader here just moments ago pointed out that the Democrats have failed to register -- and he said he was based that on comments by Jesse Jackson -- nine million African-Americans. Were you aware of that?

TUMULTY: Well, I heard that, Lou, and I was wondering if those numbers, even coming from Jesse Jackson, might be a little bit dated, because some of these outside organization, for instance, America Coming Together, the biggest of these so-called 527 organizations, has spent $125 million registering voters. And they have been concentrating very heavily in urban areas, registering minority voters.

BROWNSTEIN: Lou, as sort of a non-partisan point, if you look at the amount of money and effort, as Karen and Roger say, that is going into this on both sides, the underlying issues -- war in Iraq, the economy, the attention paid to the debate, the targeted efforts at specific groups, whether it's young voters, or African-Americans, or evangelicals -- if we don't see an increase in turnout in this election, I'm not exactly sure when we are ever going to see Americans get off their coach and vote. I mean, I would be very surprised and frankly a little discouraged if we didn't see a big election this year in terms of the number of people who come out to vote.

SIMON: Can I say one thing about that, though?

DOBBS: Sure.

SIMON: The media obsession with battleground states I think is suppressing turnout in those other 40 states.

DOBBS: That's an interesting point, Roger.

SIMON: If you live in New York, if you live in California, Texas, Indiana, the entire South except for Florida, you're being told every day, your vote really doesn't matter. It won't determine the outcome of the election. So unless you have a hot local or state-wide race, why would you go vote?

DOBBS: And let's talk about a couple of those battleground states very quickly. Specifically, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida. Karen, what's your best sense of what we can expect there, given the polling and whatever sense we're getting back from those states?

TUMULTY: Well, John Kerry is looking a little bit stronger than we -- of course, the conventional wisdom here is win two out of three of those states and you've won the election.

John Kerry is looking a little bit stronger than he has in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. But this is how unpredictable it is. All the public polling going into the 2000 election in Ohio, for instance, showed that George Bush was up by as much as 14 percentage points. He ended up winning that state by less than 4 percentage points. So I think that the closer we get to the election, in some ways almost the polls get more unreliable, not less.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, pollsters, Lou, are very good at divining how different groups will vote -- African-Americans, Democrats, independents, how they are going to vote. They're less successful at predicting how many -- how large a share of those groups will comprise of the overall electorate. That's where you get the surprises, and especially in a year like this, when both sides are counting on these big turnout operations. You could have a situation where the polls are a little less accurate than usual, adding to the uncertainty in the final days.

DOBBS: So you have a problem not only with the CNN-"USA Today" Gallup poll, but all polls in general.

Roger, you get the final concluding thought tonight.

SIMON: You know, Ralph Nader was just on your show. I don't think he's going to be a big factor this time. But I wish people would stop beating up on him for running. He does have an absolute right to do what he's doing. This country does not belong to just two parties. And if you go deep into the Gallup numbers in their polls, week after week he takes more votes away from George Bush than he does from John Kerry. So maybe the Democrats should be encouraging Ralph Nader to run.

DOBBS: I think all I can say to that is amen, brother.

BROWNSTEIN: I don't think they're there, though, Roger.

SIMON: I don't think they will, no.

DOBBS: Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, Ron Brownstein, thank you all. Talk to you tomorrow.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: Still ahead here, the results of tonight's poll and we'll have a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll: 21 percent of you say Ralph Nader should keep his name on the ballot; 79 percent say he should not. Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow. Our special series, "Democracy at Risk," continues. Billions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to fix the system, but still not guaranteeing success. Kim Alexander, president, founder of the California Voter Foundation is my gust. And "Tour of Duty," a new book with some never before released details of Senator John Kerry's Naval tour. Historian and author Douglas Brinkley will be my guest. And our panel of top political journalists. Join us to count down these final days in the presidential campaign.

For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is coming up next.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 18, 2004 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, what we didn't want to hear: problems with Florida's early voting from one end of the state to the other. We'll have a live report.
Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader could tip the balance not only in Florida, but also in other battleground states. Nader's supporters say he's simply giving voters what we deserve: a real choice. Ralph Nader is my guest.

The United Nations faces a widening scandal, the biggest in its history. Kofi Annan's son is now one of those at the center of the investigation into the multibillion-dollar oil-for-food ripoff.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NILES GARDINER, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: It is a scandal which potentially can bring down the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan himself.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: The presidential candidates may not want to focus on illegal immigration, but tens of millions of Americans do, and the citizens of one small community near the Mexican border are fighting back. We'll have that special report.

And the battle to keep American jobs in this country. Union leaders say they'll hold Senator Kerry to his promise to review all trade agreements, if he's elected.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Maybe we'll outsource the CEOs. Maybe we can offshore the CFOs. Maybe we can find those good corporate citizens again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: The president of the International Machinists Union is my guest tonight.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 18. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, polling places have just closed in Florida after the first day of what is called early voting, and already reports of problems with Florida's voting system.

Florida is only one of several states where voters can cast their ballots this year early. But Florida is a critical swing state, and, tonight, both President Bush and Senator Kerry are campaigning in Florida seeking the state's 27 electoral votes.

Tonight, we have reports on the voting problems in Florida and several other states as well, and we have reports on the latest from the campaigns.

We begin with John Zarrella in Miami -- John.

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF: Lou, well, as you might expect, all eyes were on Florida. You kind of get the sense that there are those out there who are just waiting to see if Florida messes up when it starts to vote, and, in fact, there were some glitches today. But they didn't all have to do with electronic voting machines and the new systems that are out there, and, in fact, they weren't widespread.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZARRELLA (voice-over): On the first day of early voting in Florida, supervisors of elections heard the two words that make them cringe, "technical glitch."

BRENDA SNIPES, BROWARD COUNTY SUPERVISOR OF ELECTIONS: I do see that the first day of early voting, we do have some technical things that need to be worked out, and I think that's just almost the nature of the beast, but we're on top of it.

ZARRELLA: In a state much maligned for its seeming recent inability to run a problem-free election, the issues elections officials statewide dealt were more spotty than chronic. While voting machines worked, support equipment didn't always.

In Broward County, voters stood in line for more than one hour.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's easier to get a flu shot than to vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very frustrated. I've been here since quarter after 8:00 this morning.

ZARRELLA: Computers at several of the 14 polling places open in Broward County were not talking to computers at the supervisor's office.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

ZARRELLA: Across the state, there were a variety of issues, some technical, but not all.

In Orange County, which includes Orlando, computers went down for 10 minutes, reason unknown.

In Palm Beach County, a state legislator said she was not given a complete absentee ballot.

And in Duval County, the supervisor of elections resigned, citing health reasons.

And while the state began to vote, in a Broward County federal courtroom, a trial began to determine whether electronic voting machines used in 15 counties comply with state statutes in the event of a recount. U.S. Representative Robert Wexler, who brought the suit, charges there's no way to know voter intent because the machines do not offer a paper trail.

REP. ROBERT WEXLER (D), FLORIDA: It's not possible to have a manual recount. That violates not only Florida law, but the federal law.

RON LABASKY, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: The intention of the voter is reflected because the machine records what the voter did.

ZARRELLA: Attorneys for Wexler opened the trial questioning state elections division employees who defended the e-machine technology.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZARRELLA (on camera): Wexler says he understands that even if he does win, there isn't enough time to change to a new system of voting in those counties. What he is hoping for, he told me this afternoon, was that monitors would be assigned to these voting places in order to ensure that any irregularities do not go unnoticed-- Lou.

DOBBS: John, what's the next step in that case?

ZARRELLA: The next step is it's going to be two or three days at least for the trial. They're continuing to interview witnesses today and for the next couple of days. Then the judge will have to rule and could offer some remedies.

Again, that one remedy that Wexler hopes would be afforded or, of course, the judge could rule against Wexler and say there's nothing wrong with the machines and they do go ahead and provide the kind of technology and assurance that is part of the state's statutes -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you.

John Zarrella reporting live from Miami.

Florida, of course, not the only state facing voting problems and potential problems in this election. There are new challenges to the integrity of our voting system across much of the country because of difficulties with provisional ballots, absentee ballots and e-voting machines.

Lisa Sylvester has our report in Democracy at Risk. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After Florida in 2000, Congress passed the Help America Vote Act. It gave states nearly $3 billion to upgrade their voting systems. But even with the new law, this year's election results could end up right back in court.

ROBERT RICHIE, CENTER FOR VOTING AND DEMOCRACY: If it's within a thousand votes, as it was in Florida, in a key swing state that decides the presidency, I think it's -- the odds are that the Supreme Court will once again be making a decisive decision that easily could be seen as tipping the vote one way or the other.

SYLVESTER: One out of four voters is expected to use new electronic voting machines. But of the 29 states using e-voting, only Nevada has a paper trail to verify results.

PROF. AVI RUBIN, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: If there's any kind of controversy, we have nothing that we can do to get reassurance that we have the right answer.

SYLVESTER: Other issues could end up before the U.S. Supreme Court in a close election.

Absentee ballots in Pennsylvania were sent out late. A lawsuit is seeking to give oversees voters an extra two weeks to mail them back.

A ballot amendment in Colorado would split the nine electoral votes and could ultimately decide who is the next president.

In states like Ohio, provisional ballots are being debated by the courts. The Help America Vote Act requires ballots be given to voters whose names do not show up on the voter roles. If it's later proven they are registered, the provisional ballots are supposed to count.

DOUG CHAPIN, ELECTIONLINE.ORG: What we're seeing, though, is that different states interpret the provisional voting requirement differently, meaning that voters in some states will have their provisional ballots counted and others will not, especially those voters who don't go to the right precinct and cast their ballot.

SYLVESTER: And then there are 18 states, including Missouri, that are still using the old punch-card technology. So, just like 2000, this election could hinge again on those dangling and hanging chads.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: One problem is that there are no uniform standards. Congress appropriated money to upgrade the election systems, but many states left it up to the counties to decide what action to take. So battleground state Ohio, for instance, is using four different voting systems -- Lou.

DOBBS: Lisa, thank you very much.

The latest polls show President Bush opening a slight lead over Senator Kerry among likely voters. On average, the five latest polls give President Bush a 5 percent lead.

President Bush today launched one of his strongest attacks yet against Senator Kerry. President Bush said Senator Kerry's strategy on the war on terror would lead to a major defeat for this country.

Senior White House Correspondent John King, covering the president's campaign tonight, joining me from St. Pete Beach, Florida, just outside St. Petersburg -- John.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: And, Lou, that speech earlier today from the president delivered in New Jersey. No Republican has carried that state since this president's father back in 1988. But some polls show it a dead heat.

The president today giving what the White House said in advance would be a major policy address. Instead, it turned out to be much more a scathing political indictment of Senator Kerry on what Mr. Bush says is a record that proves he is unfit to take command of the war on terrorism.

The president saying that during this campaign. the senator has offered conflicting positions on Iraq, insulted U.S. allies in the war on terrorism. Mr. Bush saying all of that, though, was consistent with what he called a 20-year record proving Mr. Kerry was on the wrong side of national security.

The president, for example, said Senator Kerry has repeatedly voted to slash intelligence funding, voted against major weapons systems and voiced reservations about using U.S. military power against rogue regimes and against terrorist organizations. The president's bottom line: Senator Kerry is too weak to take command of the war on terror.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He has consistently looked for excuses to constrain American power. He's consistently shown poor judgment on the great issues of war and peace.

When one senator among a hundred holds a policy of weakness, it doesn't make a lot of difference. But the presidency is an office of great responsibility and consequence.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now Democrats complained that Mr. Bush was distorting the president's record, trying to take political advantage of the September 11 attacks on the United States. Mr. Bush in Florida tonight.

Lou, the scathing attack today foreshadows a bruising final two weeks of the campaign, also signals that the White House will play to the president's greatest strengths. In those polls you just mentioned, Mr. Bush has a 22-point advantage when the voters are asked who can best handle the war on terrorism.

Senator Kerry trying to close the campaign with a focus on health care and other pocketbook issues. Mr. Bush wants to define security as the threshold issue in the campaign.

Again, Mr. Bush here in Florida tonight, one of those states where, as you noted at the top of the program, early voting underway. Another state, Texas. Former President George Herbert Walker Bush and Barbara Bush casting their votes today in the Houston area. Texas not in play in this election, a certain Bush victory, but, tonight at least, two votes in the Bush-Cheney column -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you. Hard to imagine that this campaign race could get any more bare knuckled than it already is.

John King, our senior White House correspondent, reporting.

Senator Kerry spent this entire day in Florida, there trying, of course, to win the support of undecided voters. Senator Kerry also campaigned on the issue of homeland security and the war on terror. Senator Kerry strongly criticized President Bush's health-care policies.

Frank Buckley reports from Tampa, Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry looked for support among seniors in the sunshine state as Florida began its early voting. Kerry also in Florida to deliver one of a series of speeches on policy issues that Kerry aides are calling closing arguments of the campaign. Health-care costs the message of this day.

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I suppose it wouldn't really be fair to say that George Bush has done nothing at all about the high cost of health care. He's actually made it worse.

BUCKLEY: While the Kerry campaign focuses on domestic policy in the final days of the political season, headlines like this one in "The Washington Post" about the former top general in Iraq, Ricardo Sanchez, reporting dire supply shortages in a letter to the Pentagon last winter, provide Kerry with openings to go after President Bush on Iraq.

KERRY: The day after General Sanchez wrote his letter, George Bush went out and told the American people our troops were properly equipped. Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and that he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

BUCKLEY: Bush campaign officials say Kerry's criticism is hypocritical, given his vote against $87 billion in post-war funding for Iraq. Earlier, Kerry preemptively responded to expected criticisms from the President Bush himself on Kerry's national security credentials.

KERRY: I bled for our country as a young man, and I will defend our country as president of the United States of America.

BUCKLEY (on camera): Kerry advisers say Senator Kerry will continue to criticize President Bush on Iraq, while simultaneously laying out his own proposals for domestic issues.

Meanwhile, Senator Kerry remains in Florida tonight. His message to supporters here: Participate in the early voting process. As Senator Kerry put it, if you vote early, you won't have to stay up too late on November 2.

Frank Buckley, CNN, Tampa.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Still ahead here, the presidential candidates seem reluctant, at best, to talk about illegal immigration, but citizens in one small community say they have been invaded by illegal aliens, and they're doing something about it in Temecula, California.

Disturbing new evidence tonight about the vulnerability of our airliners to terrorists. We'll have that special report for you.

And independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader could play a critical role in this election. Again, Ralph Nader is my guest tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: In Broken Borders tonight, residents of a Southern California city are simply outraged by the invasion of illegal aliens into their neighborhoods. These citizens say federal officials, in fact, have deceived them, and now they're demanding that the nation's immigration laws be enforced.

Casey Wian reports from Temecula, California.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Temecula is 70 miles north of the Mexican border. It's a mixture of vineyards, up-scale residential neighborhoods and, in several places, groups of illegal aliens looking for work. Residents are complaining about day laborers loitering outside schools and harassing passersby.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am mad at the men who hire them and the women. Our government doesn't enforce the law.

WIAN: Saturday, they really in support of Temecula's mayor who wrote to the Border Patrol officially requesting they patrol three street corners where illegal aliens congregate and clear the areas of illegal immigrants. ARNIE CHANDLER, ANTI-ILLEGAL ALIEN ACTIVIST: We feel that the border is open and that there is an invasion of illegal aliens here.

WIAN: But interior enforcement or arresting illegal aliens away from the border is no longer a priority. This summer, a dozen Temecula-based Border Patrol agents arrested 450 illegal aliens in 19 days in public places. The practice was stopped following complaints from immigrants rights advocates and one local congressman.

(on camera): Activists who were demanding more interior enforcement of the nation's immigration laws consider Temecula the eye of the storm. They say they've been deceived by federal officials.

(voice-over): In August, Homeland Security Undersecretary Asa Hutchinson visited Temecula to explain the administration's position, but only angered locals by saying interior enforcement hasn't stopped. He's also claimed Americans don't have the will to uproot millions of illegal aliens.

CHANDLER: We want to show him that we believe the majority of citizens definitely have the will to have our borders secured.

WIAN: Homeland security officials say their priority is arresting alien smugglers. These residents say they should crack down on illegal aliens and their employers as well.

Casey Wian, CNN, Temecula, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: This country's now porous borders are only one of several national security threats that this government has failed to address. Another threat certainly is the government's failure to screen cargo that's shipped on passenger airliners. The 9/11 commission called it a major vulnerability.

Kathleen Koch has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Machines to screen luggage, instead checking boxes of cargo for bombs. CNN got the first look at this test underway at three airports. Safety officials call it promising and insist cargo screening is at an all-time high.

MARK HATFIELD, TSA SPOKESMAN: We added 100 new cargo inspectors last year, and we just got funding to get another 100 of them. So that human element goes into the mix. We're increasing the number of dog teams, the canine detection units.

KOCH; Carrying cargo brings in roughly 10 percent of passenger airline revenue, but, since Congress in 1990 first suggested all cargo be checked for explosives, airlines and shippers worried about delays have balked. JIM MAY, AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION: It would have the potential of destroying that industry. Again, the goal that we're trying to achieve here is the maximum amount of screening possible, given the technology that's available.

KOCH: In January, the government required airlines to begin randomly inspecting cargo, but federal and airline officials admit most air cargo still goes unchecked. For families who lost loved ones aboard Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988, it's a troubling fact.

PAUL HUDSON, FATHER OF PAN AM 103 VICTIM: I would call on the airlines to voluntarily either ban cargo entirely or to screen whatever they're taking. The amount of revenue they would lose is very small compared to the consequences, should we be attacked as the Russian airliners were last month.

KOCH: Though it's not believed bombs and cargo were responsible in those cases, the U.S. in September began requiring all cargo on non-stop flights from Moscow to the U.S. be screened for explosives. It's a precaution Israel already takes for all of its air cargo.

REP. EDWARD MARKEY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: It is possible to screen every piece of cargo which goes on to passenger planes in the United States. It is not question of technology. It is a question of will.

KOCH: Boston's Logan Airport has tested an X-ray system for screening large amounts of air cargo, and the government is about to announce $24 million in grants to six companies developing other screening technology.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOCH: Still, experts say it would take up to five years to get even proven technology in place to screen the cargo on the U.S.'s 33,000 flights every day.

So, for now, Congress is ordering their random cargo screening be tripled and ordering also closer scrutiny of those who send shipments on passenger aircraft -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kathleen, a troubling report more than three years after September 11.

Kathleen Koch.

Thank you.

Still ahead here tonight, a widening scandal at the United Nations, how the oil-for-food program fraud may have benefited a member of Kofi Annan's family.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GARDINER: I do believe that it is increasingly difficult for the U.S. secretary general to remain in place while the investigation into oil for food proceeds. (END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: We'll have a special report.

And then presidential candidate Ralph Nader says Democrats won't be able to blame him should Senator Kerry lose this election. The independent presidential candidate is my guest tonight.

And then, a critical vote in this election, the Latino vote. Leading journalist Betty Cortina of "Latina" magazine is my guest.

All of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Tonight, new developments in the multibillion-dollar scandal in the United Nations oil-for-food program. Investigators are now looking at whether the scandal benefited not only Saddam Hussein, but also staff of the United Nations and the son of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Kitty Pilgrim reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KITTY PILGRIM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The U.N. oil-for-food scandal is getting bigger and bigger, the accusations and the investigations.

GARDINER: We do have simultaneously at least seven or eight major investigations going on into the oil-for-food scandal, making it undoubtedly the biggest scandal in the history of the United Nations.

PILGRIM: A $4 billion ripoff, as estimated by the Government Accountability Office, and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein bilked the program under the supervision of the United Nations.

Questions now turn to the role of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan's son, Kojo Annan, who at one time worked for Cotecna, one of the companies under suspicion.

Today, a U.N. spokesman was asked about the press reports of a possible federal criminal probe.

STEPHANE DUJARRIC, UNITED NATIONS SPOKESMAN: We have not received any information, either officially or unofficially, from U.S. federal, judicial authorities regarding an investigation into Mr. Annan's activities.

But I will stress that, as you know, the Voelcker panel is looking into the issue of Kojo Annan's employment with Cotecna while it was under contract for the oil-for-food program.

PILGRIM: At hearings earlier this month, Congress was outraged.

REP. TIM MURPHY (R), PENNSYLVANIA: U.N. member countries and U.N. personnel continually turned a blind eye to the corruption of a program designed to get humanitarian assistance to the people living under one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

PILGRIM: An executive from the Swiss company Cotecna answers questions at that congressional hearing earlier this month. At issue was whether the company, among others, allowed Saddam Hussein to cheat on the program.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PILGRIM: U.S. Representative Joe Barton, chairman of the House committee investigating the scandal, has written a letter to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan demanding U.N. records. He says, quote, "The evidence suggests U.N. officials and member states encouraged or at least tacitly condoned the abuses" -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.

Well, still ahead here tonight, the Nader factor, the independent presidential candidate, whom Democrats call the spoiler, will tell us why he's staying in the race. Ralph Nader is my guest next to talk about his presidency.

And then, President Bush and Senator Kerry making a pitch to Latino voters. We'll talk with "Latina"'s magazine Betty Cortina about this key voting block's impact on the election.

And then, free trade agreements and the millions of manufacturing jobs lost in this country. The president of the International Machinists Union will be here to tell us what must be done to stop the shipment of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: The presidential election now only two weeks away, and Democrats are pleading with my next guest to pull out of this race. Independent candidate Ralph Nader has the support of at least 1 percent of likely voters in our latest poll. But Democrats say that's enough to take away support from Senator Kerry in several battleground states.

Ralph Nader will be on the ballot in at least 34 states come November 2, and Mr. Nader insists he is not quitting and he will soon launch a multistate campaign tour.

Ralph Nader joins me now from Washington, D.C.

Good to have you with us.

RALPH NADER (I), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, Lou. DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, the head of the Democratic National Committee, pleading with you to step out of this race. What is your -- what's your reaction?

NADER: It's political bigotry. They're trying to get us off the ballot in Ohio and Pennsylvania. They're spending millions of dollars literally, hiring Republican corporate law firms, like Kirkland Ellis, Ken Starr's old law firm in Ohio, and they -- they're such whiners, Lou. They have not actively registered nine million African-American voters, 90 percent of whom who would vote for Democrats and swing the swing states.

I tell Terry McAuliffe and John Kerry, look, this country does not belong to you or the Republicans. You have to earn your votes. You're not entitled to them. Let's have more competition, more voices and choices on the ballot, which is what the American people want, so we can pay attention to the real big issues, instead of the horse race and tactics.

What about a conservative president presiding over the shipment of whole industries and jobs to a communist dictatorship in China which is now our labor enforcement arm with -- for Wal-Mart? It's ridiculous.

DOBBS: And, Ralph, let me -- I want to get to those issues that you are bringing forward that the candidates of the Republican and Democratic Parties have not at least with either any regularity or significance brought forth. But you just said the Democrats have failed to register 9 million African-Americans in this country. Where do you get that number?

NADER: From Reverend Jesse Jackson and Professor Walters and others. In other words, there are a lot of unregistered African- Americans and Latinos who would vote for the Democrats. The problem is that the Democrats are in the grip of these corporate campaign consultants who get 15 percent of every television buys. So, the money goes for 30 seconds ads, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) against Bush and Bush against Kerry, that are turning off people. They have no content and no information. And if the money is used in the grassroots to mobilize the neighbors and communities and register the votes and show that the politics has a real meaning for people's daily lives, as my book "The Good Fight" tried to point out, the campaign consultants wouldn't get 15 percent of that money. I mean, it's amazing how corrupt the political system has become. Selling our elections and selling our government to the highest bidders, mostly commercial interest, who want something in return, that usually isn't good for workers or customers.

DOBBS: And specifically, you address the issue of trade policies, and the labor policies in this country. What are the two principle issues beyond that you find resonating with your supporters in this election?

NADER: It's living wage. Most people think they should earn enough to live on. The minimum wage is bottom. It's the lowest it's been in purchasing power since 1949, and the economy has increased 10 fold since then. I don't know what these politicians and the heads of Wal-Mart and McDonald's and all the low wage chains are thinking when they make three, four, five million a year, these executives, some making $7,000 an hour on the average. And they've got workers they force to earn $7, $8 an hour. The greed of corporations today, and this has been documented by "Business Week," "Fortune," you've alluded to it, the greed, lack of law and order against corporate crime, fraud and abuse is unprecedented in American history.

The "New York Times," Gretchen -- Morgan Gretchenson (sic), a Pulitzer Prize winner, said Sunday that corporate scandals even now are expanding. They're expanding, because there's been no real crash down, neither Bush nor Kerry are calling as the Nader/Camejo campaign is for a crackdown of corporate crime fraud and abuse against workers, against pension, against workers, against customers, against the environment, such a double standard here.

DOBBS: Ralph Nader, are you absolutely committed, without question, even if you were to be told point-blank you would cost John Kerry the election if you remained in the election tonight, would you consider stepping down?

NADER: The future of this country and the future of the people in this country in relations to (UNINTELLIGIBLE) are too important to play tiddlywinks. If John Kerry loses to George Bush instead of land sliding him as he should if he stood up for the working people in this country, it's because George W. Bush took more votes from John Kerry, than the Nader/Camejo ticket. Whatever happened to underdogs -- whatever happened to right of underdogs in our elections to represent tens of millions of American underdogs pushed around, underpaid, denied healthcare, ignored, excluded while they do the work of the country everyday? It's terrible. We have to have a new political system.

DOBBS: Support for the underdog used to be, certainly, we'll find out if it is, but used to be one of the primary elements of the American character. Ralph Nader, we thank you for sharing your time here with us tonight. As always, very good to talk with you.

NADER: Thank you very much, Lou.

DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of our "Poll Tonight." Do you believe Ralph Nader should keep his name on the ballot?

As I said in at least 34 states. Cast your vote please at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later in the broadcast.

Taking a look at some of "Your Thoughts."

Frank Hickman in Omaha, Nebraska, "We must find a way to unite, not as Republicans, Democrats, or independents, but as citizens of the best democracy on the planet. Corporate America and other special interest groups have the money and influence to shape government, but they still need our votes to get it accomplished."

And Russell Pang, in Kaneohe, Hawaii, "Please help me understand, if 95 percent of incoming containers aren't inspected and three million illegal immigrants annually cross our borders, what exactly is the role of homeland security?"

We love hearing from you. Send us "Your Thoughts" at loudobbs@cnn.com. Send us your name an address. Each of you who's e- mail is read on the broadcast receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."

We reported here, as you know, extensively on what is expected to be a key voting block in this election, Latino, Hispanics. The presidential candidates are campaign hard to Hispanic voters more in this election certainly than any other in history. My guess tonight has interviewed both majority party candidates for "Latina," a bilingual magazine for Hispanic women in this country.

Betty Cortina is editorial director for "Latina" and is with here in New York tonight. Betty, good to have you here.

BETTY CORTINA, "LATINA" MAGAZINE: Thank you, thanks for having me.

DOBBS: How important do you think the Latina, Hispanic vote will be this year?

CORTINA: We'll it's huge. It will be huge because so really important states like Florida, like Texas, like California and New York, Pennsylvania. Incredibly important states that emerged this year, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, which really -- you know there was a lot of talk last year about -- or during the last election about the electoral votes in Florida. If you add Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, their electoral votes really are just about outnumbering Florida electoral college. So, both in popular election and electoral college, they kind of balance themselves out and this where is the population lives.

DOBBS: So what is -- you've talked to both candidates, which in your judgment, your the editorial director, you tell us.

CORTINA: Well, actually, we didn't talk to both candidates. John Kerry sat with us in California after a speech he delivered and George Bush would only answer questions via e-mail.

DOBBS: Via e-mail. So, you communicated then, I guess that's correct to say.

CORTINA: We communicated.

DOBBS: Based on that communication, verbal and electronic, which of these candidates do you think is the most compelling?

CORTINA: It's interesting, because in the interviews, they pretty much said everything they've been saying. President Bush's interview was really similar to his State of the Union/Republican nomination speech, so it was really about his policies, what he's done, what he's planning to do. We tried ask very personal questions...

DOBBS: When you say that, I couldn't think of much more that he could say, if he didn't say what he was thinking, what he was going to going to do, but...

CORTINA: Well, we really asked questions that want to go -- we wanted to go a bit above policy.

DOBBS: In your sense, Betty, which of these two candidates by your likes and your interests, and that being certainly vested in the Hispanic community of this country, which this is most compelling to you?

CORTINA: It really depends. And I myself am a little torn, very much like a lot of Hispanic women. I'm registered independent. And it depends where you come from. You know, we talked a lot about a voting block and how in many ways it is and in many ways it's not. And if you ask, for example, Cubans in South Florida, they tend to be incredibly Republican...

DOBBS: Very Republican.

CORTINA: ... for all sorts of reasons not the which is a political stance against Cuba. If you talk to Mexican Americans in Texas, California, Arizona, life is a little bit different. So...

DOBBS: In Texas, the Hispanic voters went strongly for President Bush.

CORTINA: Strongly for President Bush. That may be very, very different in California and Arizona and New Mexico, in particularly where 40 percent of the population is Hispanic. So, it depend on where you are. If you're really...

DOBBS: You know, this is one -- this, to me, is a description you're giving us, Betty, of a very healthy picture, in which there is no monolithic view, based on ethnicity.

I mean, you're describing and America the way it's supposed to be, aren't you?

CORTINA: Well and it's -- I hope so.

DOBBS: When I say that, it's not that way in every respect of this country right now, unfortunately.

CORTINA: Absolutely. And unfortunately, when we talked about the Hispanic voting block, it's been very different. But yes, I think what it requires is all the candidates to really understand that this electorate -- this electorate is much more sophisticated than they've given them credit for.

DOBBS: Well, in that, they share -- the Hispanic voters share something in common with all voters irrespective of ethnicity or race, often underestimated by politicians. Betty Cortina of "Latina" magazine, thanks for being here.

CORTINA: Thank you, thanks for having me.

DOBBS: Still ahead, "Exporting America," why one powerful union leader says overseas outsourcing to cheap labor markets is nothing more than economic terrorism. Thomas Buffenbarger, says it's time for Americans to stand up to corporate greed. He's my guest next.

And election day is rapidly approaching, early voting, already under way as we've report. I'll be joined by our panel of top political journalists when we continue. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Thomas Buffenbarger joins me now from Dallas, Texas. Tom is the president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. Tom, it's a great pleasure to have you here.

You have said that if Senator Kerry whom you and your union represent is elected that you'll hold him to his promise to review all of the free trade agreements over the course of 120 days. Are you hopeful that that would have any effective?

THOMAS BUFFENBARGER, PRESIDENT, IAM: Lou, it's just the beginning to review those agreements. The fact is we have to go back and change those agreements. Today, a study just came out from Cornell University and the University of Massachusetts that has outlined that this year, 2004, a half a million more jobs leave this country; 99,000 to China, 124,000 to Mexico and the rest elsewhere in the world. We have to do something now substantial and meaningful with the trade agreements to keep jobs in America.

DOBBS: Tom, I'd like to roll Senator Kerry's comments on outsourcing in the third presidential debates, if I could ask -- if I could ask you to listen to this, as we roll this videotape.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Outsourcing is going to happen. I've acknowledged that in union halls across the country. I've had shop stewards stand up and say, will you promise me you will stop all this outsourcing. And I've looked them in the eye and I've said no, I can't do that. What I can promise you is that I will make the playing field as fair as possible. That I will for instance make certain that with respect to the tax system, that you, as a worker in America, are not subsidizing the loss of your job.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: What was your reaction when you heard Senator Kerry say that, Tom?

BUFFENBARGER: Lou, both candidates bobbled that question terribly. I screamed at my television set. I wanted to answer that question. We're talking about taking away probably the most valuable thing any American worker has, their job. From that job emanates all the good things America has to offer. I would have looked at a union member, I would have looked at a steward, I would have looked at an American worker and said we're going to fight to keep your job in America. If that means we have to stake a position, put down a marker that jobs belong here and your job belongs here, then we should do it and not be afraid to say it. Protecting our ability to make our prosperity and make the means of our defense is essential to a strong and safe America.

DOBBS: Tom Buffenbarger, we thank you for being here, the head of the International Machinists Union.

Coming up next, a bounce for Bush. A new poll shows one of the widest margins yet between President Bush and Senator Kerry. We'll be talking about that and a great deal more with three of this country's top political journalists. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Well, our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows President Bush with what is an eight-point lead over Senator Kerry among likely voters nationwide. Early voting problems as we've reported here tonight in Florida's Orange, Palm Beach and Broward counties. Both candidates campaigning in the battleground state tonight. Now here to help me assess these developments, Ron Brownstein of the "L.A. Times," Karen Tumulty, "TIME" magazine, Roger Simon, "U.S. News & World Report." Great to have you here. Let's talk about these poll results, most recent four results. I have to admit I have not looked at the "Washington Post" tracking poll today, but about a 4 to 5 percent average result. What's your take, Ron?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": You're right, Lou. The average is closer than that CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup, the widest margin we have seen among likely voters. It's been a very volatile measure in the last few years, the CNN/Gallup likely voters screen...

DOBBS: Are you criticizing our poll here, Ron?

BROWNSTEIN: It -- what -- it has been a volatile measure the last few years. It's obviously the widest we have right now. But all polls agree, whether talking about private polls or public polls, there has been some movement toward President Bush in the last few days. I think the key question is is this a temporary blip or has something fundamental happened in the race. Most polls have it still closer than Gallup but there has been a tilt in his direction. The thing that has to concern John Kerry is that even though he's had good reviews in all three debates just as he had good reviews at the convention, he really has been unable to establish a lead over President Bush. The concern for President Bush, in a number of these polls, he's still under 50 percent and under 50 percent in job approval.

DOBBS: A brilliant (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to my read, diligently was pointing out that some of the numbers were moving above 50 percent. What's your take on that, Ron?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I agree. I mean, I think what you've got is you've got the polls -- that, to me, is sort of the key tipping point here. In the CNN Gallup, "Newsweek" and the ABC "Washington Post," President Bush has pushed his support back above 50 percent for the first time since the debates began. That's very important, Lou, because historically incumbents tend to run right about at their final number. Most undecided voters this late in the campaign are resistant about the incumbent. So for Bush, I think I'd watch that more closely than the spread between him and Kerry. I'd watch where he is relative to 50, and right now, we have differing views on that in the polls.

TUMULTY: And of course, there are two things that President Bush, though, has to be concerned about, are the fact that the overall registered voter number is much, much closer, which suggests that turnout could be a real determinant in this race. And also, of course, both public and what the campaigns are saying in their private polls in the battleground states shows Senator Kerry doing a lot better than he is in those national polls.

SIMON: I think Karen has made an excellent point about turnout. Democratic strategists told me they just want to stay close enough in the polls to get in field goal range and kick that field goal to win, and the field goal is their get-out-the-vote effort. Those people who don't go on talk shows and who aren't talking heads, who work below the radar screen and who have been working for several months now, in fact almost a year now in key battleground states to get out the vote for John Kerry.

DOBBS: Do we have a sense, though, Roger whether Democrats or Republicans have advantage in these ground battles? Which is bringing the greater number of ground troops, which is the most effective in their organization as we move into these final days?

SIMON: We do not. Republicans last time in their own polling showed George Bush winning the popular vote by 4 percent. We all know that he lost the popular vote. The conclusion was that the Republicans didn't do a good enough job getting out their vote, and they have been working on that for the last four years.

There is indication that Democrats are registering more new voters than Republicans, but there's also been a long-time trend that first time registrants for some reason don't go to the polls in any great numbers.

DOBBS: In that regard, Karen, Ralph Nader here just moments ago pointed out that the Democrats have failed to register -- and he said he was based that on comments by Jesse Jackson -- nine million African-Americans. Were you aware of that?

TUMULTY: Well, I heard that, Lou, and I was wondering if those numbers, even coming from Jesse Jackson, might be a little bit dated, because some of these outside organization, for instance, America Coming Together, the biggest of these so-called 527 organizations, has spent $125 million registering voters. And they have been concentrating very heavily in urban areas, registering minority voters.

BROWNSTEIN: Lou, as sort of a non-partisan point, if you look at the amount of money and effort, as Karen and Roger say, that is going into this on both sides, the underlying issues -- war in Iraq, the economy, the attention paid to the debate, the targeted efforts at specific groups, whether it's young voters, or African-Americans, or evangelicals -- if we don't see an increase in turnout in this election, I'm not exactly sure when we are ever going to see Americans get off their coach and vote. I mean, I would be very surprised and frankly a little discouraged if we didn't see a big election this year in terms of the number of people who come out to vote.

SIMON: Can I say one thing about that, though?

DOBBS: Sure.

SIMON: The media obsession with battleground states I think is suppressing turnout in those other 40 states.

DOBBS: That's an interesting point, Roger.

SIMON: If you live in New York, if you live in California, Texas, Indiana, the entire South except for Florida, you're being told every day, your vote really doesn't matter. It won't determine the outcome of the election. So unless you have a hot local or state-wide race, why would you go vote?

DOBBS: And let's talk about a couple of those battleground states very quickly. Specifically, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida. Karen, what's your best sense of what we can expect there, given the polling and whatever sense we're getting back from those states?

TUMULTY: Well, John Kerry is looking a little bit stronger than we -- of course, the conventional wisdom here is win two out of three of those states and you've won the election.

John Kerry is looking a little bit stronger than he has in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. But this is how unpredictable it is. All the public polling going into the 2000 election in Ohio, for instance, showed that George Bush was up by as much as 14 percentage points. He ended up winning that state by less than 4 percentage points. So I think that the closer we get to the election, in some ways almost the polls get more unreliable, not less.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, pollsters, Lou, are very good at divining how different groups will vote -- African-Americans, Democrats, independents, how they are going to vote. They're less successful at predicting how many -- how large a share of those groups will comprise of the overall electorate. That's where you get the surprises, and especially in a year like this, when both sides are counting on these big turnout operations. You could have a situation where the polls are a little less accurate than usual, adding to the uncertainty in the final days.

DOBBS: So you have a problem not only with the CNN-"USA Today" Gallup poll, but all polls in general.

Roger, you get the final concluding thought tonight.

SIMON: You know, Ralph Nader was just on your show. I don't think he's going to be a big factor this time. But I wish people would stop beating up on him for running. He does have an absolute right to do what he's doing. This country does not belong to just two parties. And if you go deep into the Gallup numbers in their polls, week after week he takes more votes away from George Bush than he does from John Kerry. So maybe the Democrats should be encouraging Ralph Nader to run.

DOBBS: I think all I can say to that is amen, brother.

BROWNSTEIN: I don't think they're there, though, Roger.

SIMON: I don't think they will, no.

DOBBS: Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, Ron Brownstein, thank you all. Talk to you tomorrow.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: Still ahead here, the results of tonight's poll and we'll have a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll: 21 percent of you say Ralph Nader should keep his name on the ballot; 79 percent say he should not. Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow. Our special series, "Democracy at Risk," continues. Billions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to fix the system, but still not guaranteeing success. Kim Alexander, president, founder of the California Voter Foundation is my gust. And "Tour of Duty," a new book with some never before released details of Senator John Kerry's Naval tour. Historian and author Douglas Brinkley will be my guest. And our panel of top political journalists. Join us to count down these final days in the presidential campaign.

For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is coming up next.

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