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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Bush Administration Lowers Expectations for Iraq Elections; Intelligence Officials Point to Effects of Globalization

Aired January 13, 2005 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOU DOBBS, HOST (voice-over): Tonight, escalating violence in Iraq. Insurgents stepping up their attacks against election workers and politicians. Is the White House now trying to lower expectations in Iraq?

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have constantly have got to review our plans and never lose our will.

DOBBS: Twenty-twenty vision: the CIA has a forecast that terrorist violence will escalate to unprecedented heights by 2020. We'll tell you why tonight.

ELLEN LAIPSON, FORMER VICE CHAIR, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL: There will be some kind of a loose network of terrorist groups.

DOBBS: Immigration revolt: a rising number of Republicans now oppose President Bush's plans to allow millions of illegal aliens to work in this country legally, Congressman David Dreier among them. He says real immigration reform is essential. He's our guest.

And conservative resistance, a leading Republican congressman is trying to dismantle two of the president's most trumpeted domestic reforms. I'll ask Congressman Mike Pence why he's challenging the president.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Thursday, January 13. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion, is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

Tonight the White House appears to be making a concerted effort to lower expectations about the Iraqi elections to be held at the end of this month. Senior administration officials have admitted that the escalating insurgent campaign to terrorize Iraqi voters will succeed to some degree, but those officials say the elections must be held as scheduled to prevent the insurgents from claiming a victory.

White House correspondent Dana Bash reports -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, as we reported here last night, the U.S. stopped searching for WMD in Iraq. But as you well know, the idea that they would be found really was pretty much dropped some time ago, and the U.S. began to increasingly justify the war as a way to promote democracy in the Middle East. And the focus for the past two months has been on the Iraqi elections.

Now those elections are, of course, 17 days away. And the security situation is so bad, the insurgency is so strong, that the administration is stepping up its efforts to employ what really is an age-old political strategy, which is to lower expectations for those elections.

In briefings here at the White House, at the Pentagon, State Department, increasingly from senior officials, we hear the elections, of course, should not be delayed, but that they will not be perfect and that there will be some pockets where people won't and can't vote. And that there will be some real problems with Sunni intimidation.

Part of this is what officials are calling an education effort on the process, reminding reporters and, of course, Americans that this is just one of three elections this year to get a government in place.

But most importantly, what the administration, according to one senior official, wants to drive home is that this is historic no matter what. And just the affect that we're talking about an election in Iraq, means, according to this official, that they won.

The bottom line here, Lou, is that politically, the president is at a very low place, considering where President Clinton and President Reagan were going into the next -- their second terms. And they know that they've got to keep expectations low on a very important issue, one that has defined his election, so that he doesn't get hurt politically if things don't go so well in this election in Iraq in just 17 days, Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much, Dana.

A top American general today declared that his troops will, in his words, stomp on the insurgents if terrorists try to disrupt the elections. The 1st Infantry Division's commander says his troops will be in full support of Iraqi forces guarding polling places.

The U.S. military is doing everything possible to ensure the Iraqis themselves protect voters and election workers.

Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Iraq's 125,000 security forces will face their biggest challenge ever on January 30: keeping the country calm enough for just one day so that Iraqis feel safe enough to go to the polls. If it all goes well, the one thing you won't see, U.S. troops anywhere near a ballot box.

The 150,000 troops in Iraq will be on duty, but the U.S. military strategy: keep the troops behind the scenes and let Iraqis guard more than 5,000 polling places.

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: This is an Iraqi election, and the Iraqi -- the Iraqi people need to see their security forces protecting those sites.

STARR: Top commanders are extraordinarily cautious.

LT. GEN. THOMAS METZ, U.S. GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: I can't guarantee that every person in Iraq that wants to vote goes to a polling booth and can do that safely.

STARR: U.S. military commanders know they may indeed have to back up Iraqi units that still have an uncertain track record in fighting the insurgents. The U.S. military role remains helping Iraqis plan election security, continuing to conduct missions against insurgents, providing near-by election day firepower if Iraqis request help.

LARRY DIAMOND, HOOVER INSTITUTION: It will be somewhat awkward for American soldiers and Marines to be right in the polling booth. Many Iraqis will feel that that will be intimidating and unacceptable.

STARR: The U.S. has beefed up troops in the four key provinces of the Sunni triangle, including parts of Baghdad that are most likely to see violence. This is 42 percent of Iraq's population. Any voting by Sunni minorities here would be critical.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: And, Lou, one plan now is to consolidate the number of polling places in Iraq so there are less targets to protect against on election day -- Lou.

DOBBS: And Barbara, plans to add to the estimated 35,000 American troops that will be in Baghdad to provide security during the elections?

STARR: Well, U.S. commanders are not saying exactly what their beef-up plans are now -- between now and election day, some 17 days from now. But what they are saying is all 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq will be on duty, will be ready if trouble breaks out. They will be able to move in quickly by ground and air, by helicopter.

But they really want to see the Iraqi forces take the lead visible role on election day, Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you, Barbara.

In Iraq, insurgents today killed a representative of the country's most powerful cleric, that cleric a strong supporter of the Iraqi elections. Gunmen ambushed the cleric's representative in a town east of Baghdad. His son and four bodyguards were also killed in the attack.

And in Baghdad itself, as many as 10 insurgents opened fire on a minibus outside a hotel, killing all six Iraqis in the vehicle. The insurgents also kidnapped a Turkish businessman.

Palestinian terrorists tonight killed four Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint in northern Gaza. Two Palestinians were also killed. Two suicide bombers exploded a truck packed with explosives. At least two Palestinian gunmen then stormed Israeli positions.

After the attack, an Israeli helicopter gunship fired two missiles at Palestinian refugee camp in Gaza. Witnesses say five people were killed in that attack.

In a new report tonight, the CIA forecasts that terrorist campaigns could escalate to unprecedented heights by the year 2020. The CIA also said there would be no end to radical Islamist terrorism over the next 15 years.

Another key challenge will be the rising power of states armed with nuclear weapons.

Our national security correspondent, David Ensor, reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The headline from the U.S. intelligence community's report about the world in 2020, the rise of Asia, and especially China.

"The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players," says the report, "will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries."

JOHN GANNON, FORMER CHAIR, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL: We're moving from, you know, a century of United States domination to on where it's going to have to share the stage with some very powerful actors, and China being the principle one.

ENSOR: The key to who thrives and who suffers, says the report, could be how well each nation's people use new technologies: nanotechnologies, genetically modified organisms and the like.

The report warns in 2020, the world will still be grappling with terrorism, though maybe not al Qaeda.

LAIPSON: There will be some kind of a loose network of terrorist groups that are -- that are very spread geographically.

ENSOR: The greatest new terrorist danger in 2020, the report says, could be bioterror attacks that could kill millions.

GANNON: It is relatively easy, again, for the terrorist group to get access to capabilities to build bioweapons.

ENSOR: The report contains imaginary scenarios, including one with this text message exchange between two arms dealers, working together despite their different motivations.

"Yes, I know you're committed," says one. "I'm in it for the money. Didn't matter too much who pays just as long as they do."

"I want my people and faith to be respected," says the other. "The bomb's important."

While the report says globalization should mean greater prosperity in 2020, worldwide and in the U.S., it warns that two developments could prevent that: a global pandemic or epidemic of major disease or what it calls a cycle of fear, caused by multiple large-scale terrorist attacks that could lead governments to clamp down on personal liberties, travel and trade to a degree unimaginable today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ENSOR: The authors at the National Intelligence Council were careful not to predict the future of Iraq. At a briefing at the CIA, they said Iraq is just too political a topic and there are just too many variables at play -- Lou.

DOBBS: David, thank you very much. David Ensor reporting from Washington.

At the FBI tonight, an astonishing blunder that could cost taxpayers more than $150 million. A top FBI official today admitted that there is, in his words, a good possibility that a huge software project to share information will not work. That system has been in development for the past four years.

The FBI insists the setback will have no major effect on the FBI's counterterrorism efforts.

A revolt is underway in Congress over immigration reform. Why some of the president's strongest supporters are now bracing for a fight with the White House over the issue of illegal aliens in this country.

And the high cost of so-called free trade. How our trade policies with China are leaving some of our most vital industries simply devastated.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: As we reported, President Bush is boldly predicting that his plan to give millions of illegal aliens in this country legal status will win in Congress. The controversial plan, however, is running into rising strong resistance from members of the president's own party.

Casey Wian reports from Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Bush this week reaffirmed his desire to give legal status to millions of illegal aliens in this country, a likely signal his year-old immigration reform proposal could be presented to Congress soon. He says the nation's immigration system has broken down and that, by legalizing work, we take a lot of pressure off our borders.

But to legalize the work the president's talking about requires forgiving people who have broken the law, often multiple times. A growing number of lawmakers in the president's own party say they'll fight that idea.

REP. ELTON GALLEGLY (R), CALIFORNIA: The president claims that it is not amnesty, but I believe if you reward someone for an illegal act by giving them legal status and allowing them to stay in the country and have a job, that is amnesty.

The election cycle is over. Those of us that aggressively supported President Bush's reelection, many of us, are now saying we still support you, Mr. President, but, on this issue, we're lightyears apart.

WIAN: So many that Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo says at least 180 Republican lawmakers now oppose the president's guest worker program.

REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: I'm not going to tell you that we're going to be able to win this. I can only guarantee you there's going to be one hell of a battle. The American people don't want open borders. They don't want amnesty. It's a message that is beginning to get through to the Congress. We've just got to get it through the president.

WIAN: The message has apparently reached some leading Democrats. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who opposed a state ballot initiative limiting welfare benefits for illegal aliens, is now talking tough on border security.

GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO (D), ARIZONA: It is time for the national government to step in, devote the resources and do its job of protecting the border. It is time for real immigration reform.

WIAN: Real reform, many lawmakers, believe could be as simple as enforcing existing immigration laws.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WIAN: Yesterday, San Diego-area Congressman Duncan Hunter hosted a group of congressional staffers on the tour of the border, part of his effort to convince even more lawmakers to oppose amnesty for illegal aliens -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Casey Wian from Los Angeles.

We'll have much more on this issue in the moments ahead here Congressman David Dreier will be here to talk about our nation's border crisis and tell us how two new bills that he's introduced will help stop illegal aliens from crossing the border. That's still ahead here. That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. The question: Do you believe legalizing illegal workers will take pressure off our nation's borders, as President Bush suggests? Yes or no. Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up.

Turning to the high cost of so-called free trade, Americans who live and work in the Northwest today warned a government commission that our free-trade policies with China are devastating the region.

Katharine Barrett reports from Seattle.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KATHARINE BARRETT, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just outside the U.S.-China commission's hearing room, a floating punctuation point. A Chinese cargo ship cruises into the Port of Seattle, the closest West Coast shipping point to Asia.

REP. JIM MCDERMOTT (D), WASHINGTON: You are in probably the most trade-dependent city in the United States in that one out of three people are involved in foreign trade, either producing the goods or in the shipping or the handling of coming and going goods.

BARRETT: But a swell of voices in this trade-tide region complains some of those jobs are being traded away to competition from China.

RICK BENDER, WASHINGTON STATE LABOR COUNCIL: Lower prices at Wal-Mart are not compensating for the aerospace machinists and engineering jobs that are gone forever, or for the threat posed toward agricultural and food processing jobs that form the backbone of the economy of eastern Washington.

BARRETT: Northwest apple sales abroad have been bruised by China's surging exports.

CHRISTIAN SCHLECT, NORTHWEST HORTICULTURAL COUNCIL: A number of orchardists have gone out of business. So it has had an impact, but there are other factors besides China at play, too, other competing products and other countries that import in the United States beyond China. So it isn't all China, but there is a very big impact by China.

BARRETT: Boeing has sold hundreds of planes to China and outsourced some parts production there, but the plane maker's executives were no-shows here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm not sure the Boeing Company hasn't lost its way. It's afraid to come here and testify before this commission, afraid the Chinese will push them around.

BARRETT: Boeing's workers had plenty to say.

C. RICHARD D'AMATO, U.S.-CHINA TRADE COMMISSION: There is no policy in this country. The export policy is export our jobs. That's what we've seen. We can't compete with wages, pennies on the dollar. BARRETT: Even this area's hopes for high-tech jobs have withered. Microsoft's local hiring is nearly flat, even as that company adds positions in Asia.

MARCUS COURTNEY, WASHTECH: Well, China is helping contribute to an economic jobs crisis for high-tech workers, not only here in the Northwest, but throughout the country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BARRETT: Now, of course, West Coast ports and shippers love the trade trends, and large corporations can build or hire anywhere, but, suddenly, some in the Northwest are wondering just what happens to those who are left on these shores -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Katharine Barrett from Seattle.

Harvard University has a new administrative position that has little to do with education. Harvard, renowned for its academic diligence and excellence, has hired someone to help those students have more fun. The fun czar, as the school's newspaper, The Crimson, calls it, will organize parties and help Harvard students unwind.

The first person hired for the position is a recent Harvard grad. As an undergraduate, by the way, he started a Web site aimed at protecting students' rights to party.

Still ahead here, "Striking Out Steroids." How Major League Baseball says it's going to stop its players from using illegal drugs.

And "Conservative Resistance." Why some Republicans say President Bush needs to be held to the conservative values he supports. One of them is my guest next here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Major League Baseball tonight has voted to crack down on steroid use. Commissioner Bud Selig today announced a new agreement with the players' union calling for more frequent drug testing and tougher penalties for players who use banned substances.

Michelle Bonner reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHELLE BONNER, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After enduring months of public criticism for a weak drug-testing program, Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig seemed relieved.

BUD SELIG, MLB COMMISSIONER: I have been saying for some time that my goal for this industry is zero-tolerance regarding steroids. The agreement we will describe today is an important step towards achieving that goal. We are acting today to help restore the confidence of our fans in our great game. BONNER: The new policy calls for random and year-round testing, stiffer penalties, ranging from a 10-day suspension for a first offense to a one-year suspension for a fourth offense, and an expanded list of banned substances.

Senator John McCain has been an outspoken critic of the baseball's drug policy.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I think it's significant progress, and it certainly travels quite a ways from the almost non- enforceable regimen that existed before, but I think most of us would like to see it a little tougher.

ROB MANFIELD, LABOR RELATIONS VICE PRESIDENT, MLB: I do believe that, you know, other professional sports is the accurate measure against which we should be judged, that this is as good as any policy in any professional sport.

BONNER: The NFL suspends its players for one year after a third offense. Dr. Gary Wadler, an expert in the field of drug use in sports, believes the penalties should match that of Olympic athletes where a first offense usually brings a two-year ban and a second offense brings a lifetime ban.

DR. GARY WADLER, AUTHOR, "DRUGS AND THE ATHLETE": This is definitely not enough. I don't think people should be self- congratulatory that this is a quantum leap in the right direction. I suspect that's what's going to happen.

BONNER: The players are expected to ratify the agreement before the start of the regular season.

Michelle Bonner, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Next, cracking down on illegal aliens. Why one leading Republican decided to move immigration reform to the top of his agenda. I'll be talking with Congressman David Dreier.

And "Nature's Wrath." Dangerous weather barreling toward the eastern United States tonight. More incredible images coming up here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: In just a moment, I'll be talking with Congressman David Dreier about his plans to help reform immigration policies in this country.

But, first, these stories.

Dramatic pictures tonight out of Arkansas of damage from a tornado on the Louisiana border. The winds were so powerful they lifted a tractor trailer onto the roof of this house. Two people were killed in the storm, 20 others injured.

Different weather problems in Colorado where driving conditions in Denver are icy and dangerous tonight. Twenty-eight cars today crashed into one another. Some people, as their cars were sliding toward the already smashed cars, tried to jump out of their cars, some tried to hold them back to avoid from being part of the pileup. One woman was almost hit by another car in the accident. Twenty-eight vehicles involved in this smashup.

In Utah, amazing scenes captured by an amateur photographer of houses being swept away by rushing floodwaters. Eighteen homes in all were destroyed or condemned. Police tonight are warning people to stay away from banks of rivers, saying that spectators are slowing emergency efforts and, of course, putting their own lives at risk.

In California, authorities say rescue efforts at the La Conchita mudslide have been put on hold after geologists warned of another possible mudslide, saying that the hill from which that mud did slide down on to these houses and the people within them in some cases -- saying that that hill has shifted. The geologist said the hillside has already moved at least six feet today.

My guest tonight says immigration reform and border security are top priorities. He's introduced two new pieces of legislation, one aimed at stopping the flow of illegal aliens into this country and stopping employers from hiring them. The other proposed legislation deals with criminal aliens clogging our court system.

Joining me now is Congressman David Dreier of California. Congressman Dreier is the chairman of the House Rules Committee, a member of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security.

Congressman, good to have you with us.

REP. DAVID DREIER (R), CALIFORNIA: Well, Lou, it's always good to be with you. Happy new year. And let me thank you for your coverage that you all have been providing into the tragic circumstance with Mother Nature out here and to say that you and I still have very important and major disagreements, even though I'm going to try to get you to agree with me on this one issue, and that is the fact that we have obviously seen a tremendous flow of people across the border.

And we know why it is that they come to the United States. They come here seeking economic opportunity. And so I join with my Democratic colleague, Congressman Sylvester Reyes of Texas, who was the chairman of the Hispanic Caucus and a longtime Border Patrol agent, and the legislation calls for the establishment of a counterfeitproof Social Security card which will be necessary for people when they are applying for a new job.

And I call it the Bonner plan, because T.J. Bonner, who has been a guest, he told me, on your program, many times, is the president of the National Border Patrol Council. He believes that we can, Lou, reduce by 98 percent the number of illegal border crossings so that the Border Patrol will be able to focus on what you and I and the other most -- all Americans want them to focus on, and that is our national security.

DOBBS: So in effect, what will happen, Congressman, is that a new identification card, the Social Security card, that will not be capable of being counterfeited, will not only be identification, but it will be required for employers who hire illegal aliens or legal immigrants to check those social security cards with a national data bank.

DREIER: The short answer to your question is no. You've used the term identification twice. I got -- we made one up out of an old Vaughn's card here, and basically the card will consist of the Social Security card. Which, this is what it's been for 1937 years, for 68 years, nothing but a piece of paper. And now what we have is it will be a photo embedded card, with social security on it, an algorithm strip on the back, which simply states whether you're an American citizen exactly, if you're here under a work permit, information that the government already has.

But Lou, it has something else at the bottom. It says this is not a national identification card. I was just with my friend...

DOBBS: Well Congressman, in the interest of time, let's be as succinct as we can. You may call it not an identification card, a national identification card, for political purposes, but in point of fact, it is designed not to be counterfeited, correct?

DREIER: Correct.

DOBBS: It would identify the holder?

DREIER: It identifies the holder when they're applying for a new job, go ahead.

DOBBS: Well, I mean, it identifies them period.

DREIER: Lou...

DOBBS: Wait, Congressman, if I may. There's no reason for contravention or argument here. I'm trying to just get the facts out for all of us. The fact is this would give employers a clear channel to a data bank that would say whether that person was legal or illegal and there would be a direct connection, correct?

DREIER: That is correct.

But let me tell you why this is not a national identification card. It's not going to be utilized for getting on an airplane. You are gainfully employed. I know Dick parsons told me you're going to be there for a long period of time, you won't need one, because you're not going to be applying for a new job for a long period of time.

The fact is, any senior citizen will not have to have one of these cards. Only individuals applying for a new job will need to have this Social Security card. So, that's why it's not a national I.D. card. DOBBS: The way in which it's used is helpful for identification. Let's go to the second part of this. You're coming straight out the White House here. This isn't in their plan. Have you talked to them? Are they going to support you with this?

DREIER: Yes, I have. I have. I've -- we had a meeting with the president last -- bicameral meeting with him last week focusing on Social Security. I've talked to Karl Rove at length about this issue.

And frankly, I listened to a clip from some of my colleagues earlier. We're still in the process of putting together the president's reform proposal, he is, and the Congress will be. I will tell you that a guest worker program must go hand in hand with having this counterfeit proof Social Security card because of the economic demand that exists here. So I think we can come together, Lou. You know, I like to find areas of agreement, that's one of the reasons why I introduced this, so I can finally find an area of agreement with you. And so...

DOBBS: It's a good start, Congressman.

DREIER: Well, we've got a ways to go, but my colleague John Kyl, in the Senate is going will be introducing this next week when the Senate convenes. And I think that we can get support all the way across the board for it.

DOBBS: Well we wish you well with this. It's an important beginning. And hopefully it will find considerable support.

DREIER: And we need to pass the Free Trade are of the Americas...

DOBBS: Oh, congressman, congressman. It's like baseball. Your average can be good, but nonetheless, it is an average -- you're making it slide just a bit with me now.

DREIER: I know. It's key to this whole effort of keeping people fleeing from across the border, Lou.

DOBBS: There are a lot of keys here, you know, Congressman. We're going to talk about them in the weeks ahead when you come back and we'll discuss them further. Thank you.

DREIER: Thanks, Lou. See you.

DOBBS: A reminder now to vote on our poll tonight. The question is, "Do you believe legalizing illegal workers will take pressure off our nation's borders as President Bush suggests. Yes or No." Please cast you vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up.

Taking a look now at some of your thoughts.

Rich Kelpert of Sedona, Arizona, "We forget Social Security is not savings account, it's a safety net. What if we have another crisis like the depression? At the pace of outsourcing jobs and deficit spending, huge growing trade imbalances don't look good for retirement for anyone."

And George Polozie of Ellington, Connecticut, "We've been hearing for years now that we're going to crack down on unfair trade practices with China. How can anyone tell us that is how we are going to solve our trade imbalance problems. As for buying Chinese products, what else can one earning minimum wage in this country afford to buy? Illegal aliens drive down our buying power even more."

And Ronald in Salem, Indiana, "Mr. Dobbs, it seems our elected officials are more concerned about the results of future elections than they are about developing a workable solution to the out of control influx of illegal aliens."

As you've just heard, some people on Capitol Hill are trying to do something about it. Perhaps it's the beginning of something big.

We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com.

Returning now to our top story, the escalating insurgency in Iraq, U.S. officials now admit the campaign to terrorize Iraqi voters ahead of the January 30 election will succeed to some degree. Those officials, however, say the elections must go ahead as scheduled in order to deny the insurgents a claim of victory. Joining me now is General David Grange. General good to have you with us.

GEN. DAVID GRANGE, U.S. ARMY (RET): Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: I want to ask you 2 things, general, right off the top. One is acknowledging that the insurgency will succeed here, the second is on the CIA estimate that we're going to see rising terrorism over the course of time between now and 2020.

Let's begin with Iraq. How can we, at this point, the United States, bring about a secure election with our top officials, our military planners our top general at the Pentagon, our State Department, saying don't expect too much?

GRANGE: Well, first of all, the insurgency will not succeed. I don't think that's correct. The insurgency will eventually be defeated. Coming up on these elections, yes, there's a race for the 30th of January, roads are not secure, some areas won't be able to vote. But the bottom line is a lot of areas will be secure, there will be an election, and they're secure to some extent almost all the polling areas to do the elections.

DOBBS: General, when I said -- you said that isn't correct -- I'm simply quoting the White House officials who are acknowledging that there will be, to some degree, a success for the insurgents in affecting the election. I would join with you in the hope that we would defeat the insurgents.

But they're getting bolder, and the attacks are stepping up. And we've got through I don't know how many iterations, general, as you well know, and as you have analyzed and we've discussed on this broadcast for just about 2 years, we've been told that the terrorist attacks would and insurgent attacks would increase leading up to the handover to the Iraqi interim government. We were told that they will would increase following the handover. Now as the discussion moves toward elections, we were told they'll increase again, and following the elections we're told they will increase.

What in the world are the American people supposed to think, general, when our Pentagon, with some of the smartest, best-trained, most experienced combat officers cannot take control of a country of 25 million people and put at risk our young men and women in uniform? And deny stability and security to the Iraqis are who are trying -- for whom we're trying to bring democracy and order?

GRANGE: Yes. That's the crux of the matter. 25 million people in this land mass in urban areas, yes, I think up-front what should have been said is this will take an awful long time. And it's not going to happen overnight. And it's not going to happen after the first of the year, or halfway through the next year. It's going to take a while.

But the progress is being made. And what really bothers me quite a bit is that a lot of times we're not hearing about some of these successes. I mean, they just removed not too long ago 3 of Zarqawi's 3 key subordinate leaders. That's not even talked about. That's a blow to the enemy insurgency.

And I think that there's some progress being made that we just don't see.

DOBBS: Well, general, I know you well enough, and we've known each other for some time, to know you're a straight-talking, straightforward fellow are there is that has served the country as well as one of the bravest and the most able. The fact is, no matter what we're doing to Zarqawi, the fact is the that insurgency is building, the attacks are more powerful, and the injury and deaths that they bring to Iraqis and to young Americans are rising. How can we say we're doing better?

GRANGE: Because I don't really think the insurgency is growing. I think they're offensive operations have increased. And until the support of people in certain areas in Iraq, until we beat them on a human intelligence game, in other words, this is street information, it's going to take a while. And that's some of the things that must be overcome.

DOBBS: That brings me, general, to the other question I wanted to direct you on the Nation Intelligence Council talking about terrorism, intensifying and reaching new heights by 2020. Coming from the CIA, the fact is we're not seeing great remarkable intelligence successes in Iraq. And we've been there some time. We have the current head and previous head of the CIA saying it's going to take 5 years to create a successful effective, covert force for the United States through the CIA. Now this estimate of 2020, in which the promise is greater terrorism.

What in the world should we be doing in the relationship between our military operations, our war on terror and our intelligence community?

Because these are just not acceptable answers, I have to believe for the American people.

GRANGE: Yes, terrorism will be on the increase. I mean, it's a tactic of choice by the underdog. By those who don't have the power to meet powerful nations armies or economic prowess, whatever the case maybe, head on. So it will increase. It's a tactic of choice. And what happened, as you know, decades ago, our intelligence capability for counter-terrorism was taken down to its knees, and it's taken a long time to rebuild. And some of these capabilities take three decades and we're basically still catching up.

DOBBS: General David Grange, as always, good to have you here.

GRANGE: Thank you, Lou. My pleasure.

DOBBS: Still ahead, a conservative Republican promises to reform two of President Bush's best-known accomplishments.

And then drug companies making friends on Capitol Hill, imagine that. Some critics say it's jeopardizing our nation's health and well-being. Our special report "Overmedicated Nation" coming up.

And giving relief to millions of survivors of the deadly Asian tsunamis. The head of the USAID, he's just returned from the region. He's our guest next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: My next guest is a conservative Republican. He's promising to reform two of the presidents most significant accomplishments. Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana wants to roll back much of the brand new Medicare prescription drug benefit and the No Child Let Behind Law. He's a member of it is House Judiciary Committee and joins us tonight from Capitol Hill. Congressman, good to have you with us.

MIKE PENCE (R), INDIANA: Thank you, Lou, great to be on.

DOBBS: A lot of people have got to be surprised, that here you are a Republican, a respected conservative member of the president's party, wanting to roll back two of his favored programs. Let's start with No Child Left Behind. What could you do?

PENCE: Well, I'll tell you, Lou, in both cases, I think I and many conservatives on Capitol Hill liked what the president proposed, but didn't necessarily feel as strongly about the final version of the bill. You know, on education, the president said we're going -- going to have testing. But when we find schools that fail for two or three consecutive years in our -- in some of our inner city areas, we're going to give those parents educational choice to go to the public or private school that their children wish to attend. But frankly, when Senator Kennedy got ahold of the bill, gone was the educational choice, and what was left behind was a massive increase in the Department of Education and national testing on the elementary school level.

DOBBS: I want to have you back, Congressman, if you could, to talk about this issue of choice in education, because for millions of American, as you know, the choice was made centuries ago, a commitment to public education. And to see Congress or anyone turn their back on public education, I don't see why we don't take control of our public schools, which have been the absolute generator of opportunity and accomplishment, and obviously education, even wealth in this country. I just hate to heard it.

PENCE: And I think, Lou, educational choice, as we've seen in Milwaukee where it's being implemented, and many parents given choice go to the public school closest to their home. Educational choice is about letting parents take control. It was what the president first wanted to do, and I would love to see us get to it.

DOBBS: I'd sign up for that part.

Let's go to another part, and that's the drug in benefit in Medicare.

PENCE: You bet.

DOBBS: That programs, significant, the biggest change in, actually, the program since its creation. Important part of an adaptation in the safety net, what's your problem with it?

PENCE: Well, the problem is, once again, President Bush came to Capitol Hill, and he wanted to create a benefit in Medicare for the 1 in 4 seniors who currently lack prescription drug coverage, and you know Congress, which is the land of the $400 hammer, Lou, decided to create a one size fits all massive new federal entitlement. What I and Congressman Zack Wamp and others would like to do is put a means test in that prescription drug entitlement before it takes effect so that we focus those resources on the seniors who really need the help.

DOBBS: You know, Congressman, I couldn't agree with you more about the importance of means testing, I think that -- but that's something Congress has obviously resisted. Congress, when I say that, both parties have resisted, because it seems absolutely irrational that citizens of this country have benefited and succeeded and have the personal means to provide for themselves would take advantage of the program, which ultimately denies that service for others. So you and I are doing pretty good here tonight. Let me ask you another question, if I may.

PENCE: Please.

DOBBS: And that's Social Security. Because what you're suggesting to me in these areas, it seems doesn't take much of an extension to think that you, Congressman, are not behind Social Security reform as the president's proposing right now.

PENCE: I and some House conservatives have said no to the president in the past. But on his vision for creating for younger Americans, the opportunity personal savings accounts, conservatives in the Congress are anxious to say yes. The president has a vision that will give not only younger Americans choice and a better return on their retirement, but Lou, it will save Social Security for the 21st century.

DOBBS: Well, the 21st century is getting at hand, but still almost 100 years away. I just don't understand the fascination on this administration, maybe you can help. We have an unfunded liability, about $1.5 trillion for the Social Security system, and he wants to reform that and a few people in his party, but we have an unfunded liability for Medicare and Medicaid double that, $25 trillion. Why in the world are we focusing on something that's funded for 40 more years absolutely, and something that's going bankrupt before our eyes with huge, huge implications.

PENCE: Well, truthfully, you know, my and other members' efforts to try to rein in that Medicare prescription drug entitlement are directly connected to trying to reform Social Security in a way that will bend the growth curve in the future. It's about putting our fiscal house in order, Lou, and conservatives are committed to help this president do just that.

DOBBS: Well, I've got to say, Congressman, that's a tall order, because the past so far has been rocky, to say the least, as we watched the deficits explode and the size of government enlarge every year.

Congressman, come back soon, we'll talk more. Thank you.

PENCE: Thank you, Lou. Great to be on.

DOBBS: In our series of special reports, we're focusing the -- on this "Overmedicated Nation." We've looked this week at how your health and life may not always be the top priority for drug agencies nor the regulatory agencies who are responsible for the public safety. Tonight we focus on officials, elected to represent your interests on Capitol Hill, but too often their focus is on the drug companies themselves.

Lisa Sylvester reports from Washington.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The drug industry and related interests shelled out more than $140 million lobbying Washington in 2003 alone. The industry also gave generous campaign contributions, more than $14 million in the last election.

FRANK CLEMENTE, PUBLIC CITIZEN'S CONGRESS WATCH: I liken it to an octopus. It has its tentacles everywhere. It spends the most amount of money lobbying, has the most number of lobbyists, eight lobbyists for every senator.

SYLVESTER: Critics say Congress has become too cozy with the drug companies. On the major issues affecting the industry, from drug reimportation from Canada to price controls, to the Medicare bill, the industry won out. REP. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: The public is more and more aware that their Congress is betraying them, that their Congress is selling them out to the drug industry, that Congress way too often on health care issues responds to the highest bidder.

SYLVESTER: Another criticism, the revolving door. Congressman Billy Tauzin, who helped craft the Medicare bill, now heads the group the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America. Tom Scully, former head of the Medicare program, is now a lobbyist working on Medicare issues. Former Congressman Bob Walker is now a lobbyist, whose clients include Wyeth Pharmaceuticals. He argues there is nothing wrong with the revolving door.

BOB WALKER, WALKER & WALKER PUBLIC POLICY ASSOC.: I happen to think it's a positive thing to have members of Congress who have worked for the American people in their role as Congress to come out into the representational community and carry those same standards and those same values into the work that they do in the private sector, because I think that does assure that the public interest is protected.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: Former members of Congress hired by special interests groups have to sit out for a year and cannot do any direct lobbying. But Billy Tauzin, for example, in the next year can still direct his staff and tell them who to lobby, and then in addition, Tauzin as a former member of the House, has floor privileges for life, meaning he can walk onto the House floor during a vote on an issue and still wield a great deal of influence -- Lou.

DOBBS: Lisa, thank you very much. An extraordinarily fascinating system we have created for ourselves in this country. Thank you.

It's been two and a half weeks since the tsunamis hit Southern Asia tonight. Why much-needed aid still has not reached many areas. The head of the U.S. Agency for International Development will be our guest here next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The United States, 80 other countries contributing to the extensive relief aid in Southern Asia. Andrew Natsios is the administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development. He's just returned from the region, joins us tonight from Washington. And good to have you with us.

With that extensive relief effort, what is your sense of how well it's going? We've pledged in this country $350 million. Is that money, that support moving into immediate relief for the people affected in the region?

ANDREW NATSIOS, USAID ADMINISTRATOR: Well, we've already committed $90 million of that 350 of actual programs on the ground, in giving grants to charities and organizations, in buying relief commodities. And we've moved about $20 million of that in U.S. food into the areas where people were most affected. But it will accelerate. We're trying to use some of that money to begin the rehabilitation process. For example, when Secretary Powell and I were in Sri Lanka, the secretary announced an AID program of $10 million to begin to rehouse people.

DOBBS: Let me ask you this, is it palpable, is it obvious, the impact this aid is having in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the hardest-hit regions?

NATSIOS: Well, I can only tell by our reception by people, and I have to say it was so warm and so enthusiastic. We have 150 AID staff working on this in the four countries most affected, and they're reporting very close coordination, very close relationships with local government officials, with the national governments of these countries. These are all democracies.

DOBBS: We're getting reports from Indonesia, of course, that the Indonesian government wants the United States out, the military out by March, that security is being provided for some of the aid workers because of the tensions that exist there. How significant is it, in your opinion?

NATSIOS: Well, one, our ambassador, Lynn Pascoe, who Secretary Powell and Jeb Bush visited with when they were there -- he's a very able guy -- went in to see the vice president and said, is that true? And he said, no, it's not true. We were giving you the date when we hope the entire military phase of this will be over. But it's not a deadline, it is simply we're hoping we can move to rehabilitation and reconstruction. So they said there is no deadline.

DOBBS: And you're satisfied that the United States is, although you've stepped aside for the United Nations, is satisfied that our role is sufficiently prominent, giving the fact that this is a super- power with worldwide responsibilities?

NATSIOS: Well, we've actually had complaints that we're too visible. The U.S. military and AID are the most prominent players on the ground. And we understand that. We're trying to help people out here. I think that people...

DOBBS: Well, we are visible in so many ways, as you know, Andrew.

NATSIOS: We do.

DOBBS: It's nice to see you visible there in the right way, and for the best of reasons. That often isn't a choice in public policy and international relations.

We thank you, Andrew Natsios, for being here.

NATSIOS: Thank you.

DOBBS: Still ahead, the results of our poll tonight, a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll -- and I would suggest, hope, think that our elected representatives on Capitol Hill might be taking a peek at this poll, in which 96 percent of you responded to say you believe legalizing illegal workers will not take pressure off our nation's borders, as the president has suggested.

Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us here tomorrow. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired January 13, 2005 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOU DOBBS, HOST (voice-over): Tonight, escalating violence in Iraq. Insurgents stepping up their attacks against election workers and politicians. Is the White House now trying to lower expectations in Iraq?

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have constantly have got to review our plans and never lose our will.

DOBBS: Twenty-twenty vision: the CIA has a forecast that terrorist violence will escalate to unprecedented heights by 2020. We'll tell you why tonight.

ELLEN LAIPSON, FORMER VICE CHAIR, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL: There will be some kind of a loose network of terrorist groups.

DOBBS: Immigration revolt: a rising number of Republicans now oppose President Bush's plans to allow millions of illegal aliens to work in this country legally, Congressman David Dreier among them. He says real immigration reform is essential. He's our guest.

And conservative resistance, a leading Republican congressman is trying to dismantle two of the president's most trumpeted domestic reforms. I'll ask Congressman Mike Pence why he's challenging the president.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Thursday, January 13. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion, is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

Tonight the White House appears to be making a concerted effort to lower expectations about the Iraqi elections to be held at the end of this month. Senior administration officials have admitted that the escalating insurgent campaign to terrorize Iraqi voters will succeed to some degree, but those officials say the elections must be held as scheduled to prevent the insurgents from claiming a victory.

White House correspondent Dana Bash reports -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, as we reported here last night, the U.S. stopped searching for WMD in Iraq. But as you well know, the idea that they would be found really was pretty much dropped some time ago, and the U.S. began to increasingly justify the war as a way to promote democracy in the Middle East. And the focus for the past two months has been on the Iraqi elections.

Now those elections are, of course, 17 days away. And the security situation is so bad, the insurgency is so strong, that the administration is stepping up its efforts to employ what really is an age-old political strategy, which is to lower expectations for those elections.

In briefings here at the White House, at the Pentagon, State Department, increasingly from senior officials, we hear the elections, of course, should not be delayed, but that they will not be perfect and that there will be some pockets where people won't and can't vote. And that there will be some real problems with Sunni intimidation.

Part of this is what officials are calling an education effort on the process, reminding reporters and, of course, Americans that this is just one of three elections this year to get a government in place.

But most importantly, what the administration, according to one senior official, wants to drive home is that this is historic no matter what. And just the affect that we're talking about an election in Iraq, means, according to this official, that they won.

The bottom line here, Lou, is that politically, the president is at a very low place, considering where President Clinton and President Reagan were going into the next -- their second terms. And they know that they've got to keep expectations low on a very important issue, one that has defined his election, so that he doesn't get hurt politically if things don't go so well in this election in Iraq in just 17 days, Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much, Dana.

A top American general today declared that his troops will, in his words, stomp on the insurgents if terrorists try to disrupt the elections. The 1st Infantry Division's commander says his troops will be in full support of Iraqi forces guarding polling places.

The U.S. military is doing everything possible to ensure the Iraqis themselves protect voters and election workers.

Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Iraq's 125,000 security forces will face their biggest challenge ever on January 30: keeping the country calm enough for just one day so that Iraqis feel safe enough to go to the polls. If it all goes well, the one thing you won't see, U.S. troops anywhere near a ballot box.

The 150,000 troops in Iraq will be on duty, but the U.S. military strategy: keep the troops behind the scenes and let Iraqis guard more than 5,000 polling places.

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: This is an Iraqi election, and the Iraqi -- the Iraqi people need to see their security forces protecting those sites.

STARR: Top commanders are extraordinarily cautious.

LT. GEN. THOMAS METZ, U.S. GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: I can't guarantee that every person in Iraq that wants to vote goes to a polling booth and can do that safely.

STARR: U.S. military commanders know they may indeed have to back up Iraqi units that still have an uncertain track record in fighting the insurgents. The U.S. military role remains helping Iraqis plan election security, continuing to conduct missions against insurgents, providing near-by election day firepower if Iraqis request help.

LARRY DIAMOND, HOOVER INSTITUTION: It will be somewhat awkward for American soldiers and Marines to be right in the polling booth. Many Iraqis will feel that that will be intimidating and unacceptable.

STARR: The U.S. has beefed up troops in the four key provinces of the Sunni triangle, including parts of Baghdad that are most likely to see violence. This is 42 percent of Iraq's population. Any voting by Sunni minorities here would be critical.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: And, Lou, one plan now is to consolidate the number of polling places in Iraq so there are less targets to protect against on election day -- Lou.

DOBBS: And Barbara, plans to add to the estimated 35,000 American troops that will be in Baghdad to provide security during the elections?

STARR: Well, U.S. commanders are not saying exactly what their beef-up plans are now -- between now and election day, some 17 days from now. But what they are saying is all 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq will be on duty, will be ready if trouble breaks out. They will be able to move in quickly by ground and air, by helicopter.

But they really want to see the Iraqi forces take the lead visible role on election day, Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you, Barbara.

In Iraq, insurgents today killed a representative of the country's most powerful cleric, that cleric a strong supporter of the Iraqi elections. Gunmen ambushed the cleric's representative in a town east of Baghdad. His son and four bodyguards were also killed in the attack.

And in Baghdad itself, as many as 10 insurgents opened fire on a minibus outside a hotel, killing all six Iraqis in the vehicle. The insurgents also kidnapped a Turkish businessman.

Palestinian terrorists tonight killed four Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint in northern Gaza. Two Palestinians were also killed. Two suicide bombers exploded a truck packed with explosives. At least two Palestinian gunmen then stormed Israeli positions.

After the attack, an Israeli helicopter gunship fired two missiles at Palestinian refugee camp in Gaza. Witnesses say five people were killed in that attack.

In a new report tonight, the CIA forecasts that terrorist campaigns could escalate to unprecedented heights by the year 2020. The CIA also said there would be no end to radical Islamist terrorism over the next 15 years.

Another key challenge will be the rising power of states armed with nuclear weapons.

Our national security correspondent, David Ensor, reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The headline from the U.S. intelligence community's report about the world in 2020, the rise of Asia, and especially China.

"The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players," says the report, "will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries."

JOHN GANNON, FORMER CHAIR, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL: We're moving from, you know, a century of United States domination to on where it's going to have to share the stage with some very powerful actors, and China being the principle one.

ENSOR: The key to who thrives and who suffers, says the report, could be how well each nation's people use new technologies: nanotechnologies, genetically modified organisms and the like.

The report warns in 2020, the world will still be grappling with terrorism, though maybe not al Qaeda.

LAIPSON: There will be some kind of a loose network of terrorist groups that are -- that are very spread geographically.

ENSOR: The greatest new terrorist danger in 2020, the report says, could be bioterror attacks that could kill millions.

GANNON: It is relatively easy, again, for the terrorist group to get access to capabilities to build bioweapons.

ENSOR: The report contains imaginary scenarios, including one with this text message exchange between two arms dealers, working together despite their different motivations.

"Yes, I know you're committed," says one. "I'm in it for the money. Didn't matter too much who pays just as long as they do."

"I want my people and faith to be respected," says the other. "The bomb's important."

While the report says globalization should mean greater prosperity in 2020, worldwide and in the U.S., it warns that two developments could prevent that: a global pandemic or epidemic of major disease or what it calls a cycle of fear, caused by multiple large-scale terrorist attacks that could lead governments to clamp down on personal liberties, travel and trade to a degree unimaginable today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ENSOR: The authors at the National Intelligence Council were careful not to predict the future of Iraq. At a briefing at the CIA, they said Iraq is just too political a topic and there are just too many variables at play -- Lou.

DOBBS: David, thank you very much. David Ensor reporting from Washington.

At the FBI tonight, an astonishing blunder that could cost taxpayers more than $150 million. A top FBI official today admitted that there is, in his words, a good possibility that a huge software project to share information will not work. That system has been in development for the past four years.

The FBI insists the setback will have no major effect on the FBI's counterterrorism efforts.

A revolt is underway in Congress over immigration reform. Why some of the president's strongest supporters are now bracing for a fight with the White House over the issue of illegal aliens in this country.

And the high cost of so-called free trade. How our trade policies with China are leaving some of our most vital industries simply devastated.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: As we reported, President Bush is boldly predicting that his plan to give millions of illegal aliens in this country legal status will win in Congress. The controversial plan, however, is running into rising strong resistance from members of the president's own party.

Casey Wian reports from Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Bush this week reaffirmed his desire to give legal status to millions of illegal aliens in this country, a likely signal his year-old immigration reform proposal could be presented to Congress soon. He says the nation's immigration system has broken down and that, by legalizing work, we take a lot of pressure off our borders.

But to legalize the work the president's talking about requires forgiving people who have broken the law, often multiple times. A growing number of lawmakers in the president's own party say they'll fight that idea.

REP. ELTON GALLEGLY (R), CALIFORNIA: The president claims that it is not amnesty, but I believe if you reward someone for an illegal act by giving them legal status and allowing them to stay in the country and have a job, that is amnesty.

The election cycle is over. Those of us that aggressively supported President Bush's reelection, many of us, are now saying we still support you, Mr. President, but, on this issue, we're lightyears apart.

WIAN: So many that Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo says at least 180 Republican lawmakers now oppose the president's guest worker program.

REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: I'm not going to tell you that we're going to be able to win this. I can only guarantee you there's going to be one hell of a battle. The American people don't want open borders. They don't want amnesty. It's a message that is beginning to get through to the Congress. We've just got to get it through the president.

WIAN: The message has apparently reached some leading Democrats. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who opposed a state ballot initiative limiting welfare benefits for illegal aliens, is now talking tough on border security.

GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO (D), ARIZONA: It is time for the national government to step in, devote the resources and do its job of protecting the border. It is time for real immigration reform.

WIAN: Real reform, many lawmakers, believe could be as simple as enforcing existing immigration laws.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WIAN: Yesterday, San Diego-area Congressman Duncan Hunter hosted a group of congressional staffers on the tour of the border, part of his effort to convince even more lawmakers to oppose amnesty for illegal aliens -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Casey Wian from Los Angeles.

We'll have much more on this issue in the moments ahead here Congressman David Dreier will be here to talk about our nation's border crisis and tell us how two new bills that he's introduced will help stop illegal aliens from crossing the border. That's still ahead here. That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. The question: Do you believe legalizing illegal workers will take pressure off our nation's borders, as President Bush suggests? Yes or no. Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up.

Turning to the high cost of so-called free trade, Americans who live and work in the Northwest today warned a government commission that our free-trade policies with China are devastating the region.

Katharine Barrett reports from Seattle.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KATHARINE BARRETT, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just outside the U.S.-China commission's hearing room, a floating punctuation point. A Chinese cargo ship cruises into the Port of Seattle, the closest West Coast shipping point to Asia.

REP. JIM MCDERMOTT (D), WASHINGTON: You are in probably the most trade-dependent city in the United States in that one out of three people are involved in foreign trade, either producing the goods or in the shipping or the handling of coming and going goods.

BARRETT: But a swell of voices in this trade-tide region complains some of those jobs are being traded away to competition from China.

RICK BENDER, WASHINGTON STATE LABOR COUNCIL: Lower prices at Wal-Mart are not compensating for the aerospace machinists and engineering jobs that are gone forever, or for the threat posed toward agricultural and food processing jobs that form the backbone of the economy of eastern Washington.

BARRETT: Northwest apple sales abroad have been bruised by China's surging exports.

CHRISTIAN SCHLECT, NORTHWEST HORTICULTURAL COUNCIL: A number of orchardists have gone out of business. So it has had an impact, but there are other factors besides China at play, too, other competing products and other countries that import in the United States beyond China. So it isn't all China, but there is a very big impact by China.

BARRETT: Boeing has sold hundreds of planes to China and outsourced some parts production there, but the plane maker's executives were no-shows here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm not sure the Boeing Company hasn't lost its way. It's afraid to come here and testify before this commission, afraid the Chinese will push them around.

BARRETT: Boeing's workers had plenty to say.

C. RICHARD D'AMATO, U.S.-CHINA TRADE COMMISSION: There is no policy in this country. The export policy is export our jobs. That's what we've seen. We can't compete with wages, pennies on the dollar. BARRETT: Even this area's hopes for high-tech jobs have withered. Microsoft's local hiring is nearly flat, even as that company adds positions in Asia.

MARCUS COURTNEY, WASHTECH: Well, China is helping contribute to an economic jobs crisis for high-tech workers, not only here in the Northwest, but throughout the country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BARRETT: Now, of course, West Coast ports and shippers love the trade trends, and large corporations can build or hire anywhere, but, suddenly, some in the Northwest are wondering just what happens to those who are left on these shores -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you very much.

Katharine Barrett from Seattle.

Harvard University has a new administrative position that has little to do with education. Harvard, renowned for its academic diligence and excellence, has hired someone to help those students have more fun. The fun czar, as the school's newspaper, The Crimson, calls it, will organize parties and help Harvard students unwind.

The first person hired for the position is a recent Harvard grad. As an undergraduate, by the way, he started a Web site aimed at protecting students' rights to party.

Still ahead here, "Striking Out Steroids." How Major League Baseball says it's going to stop its players from using illegal drugs.

And "Conservative Resistance." Why some Republicans say President Bush needs to be held to the conservative values he supports. One of them is my guest next here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Major League Baseball tonight has voted to crack down on steroid use. Commissioner Bud Selig today announced a new agreement with the players' union calling for more frequent drug testing and tougher penalties for players who use banned substances.

Michelle Bonner reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHELLE BONNER, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After enduring months of public criticism for a weak drug-testing program, Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig seemed relieved.

BUD SELIG, MLB COMMISSIONER: I have been saying for some time that my goal for this industry is zero-tolerance regarding steroids. The agreement we will describe today is an important step towards achieving that goal. We are acting today to help restore the confidence of our fans in our great game. BONNER: The new policy calls for random and year-round testing, stiffer penalties, ranging from a 10-day suspension for a first offense to a one-year suspension for a fourth offense, and an expanded list of banned substances.

Senator John McCain has been an outspoken critic of the baseball's drug policy.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I think it's significant progress, and it certainly travels quite a ways from the almost non- enforceable regimen that existed before, but I think most of us would like to see it a little tougher.

ROB MANFIELD, LABOR RELATIONS VICE PRESIDENT, MLB: I do believe that, you know, other professional sports is the accurate measure against which we should be judged, that this is as good as any policy in any professional sport.

BONNER: The NFL suspends its players for one year after a third offense. Dr. Gary Wadler, an expert in the field of drug use in sports, believes the penalties should match that of Olympic athletes where a first offense usually brings a two-year ban and a second offense brings a lifetime ban.

DR. GARY WADLER, AUTHOR, "DRUGS AND THE ATHLETE": This is definitely not enough. I don't think people should be self- congratulatory that this is a quantum leap in the right direction. I suspect that's what's going to happen.

BONNER: The players are expected to ratify the agreement before the start of the regular season.

Michelle Bonner, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Next, cracking down on illegal aliens. Why one leading Republican decided to move immigration reform to the top of his agenda. I'll be talking with Congressman David Dreier.

And "Nature's Wrath." Dangerous weather barreling toward the eastern United States tonight. More incredible images coming up here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: In just a moment, I'll be talking with Congressman David Dreier about his plans to help reform immigration policies in this country.

But, first, these stories.

Dramatic pictures tonight out of Arkansas of damage from a tornado on the Louisiana border. The winds were so powerful they lifted a tractor trailer onto the roof of this house. Two people were killed in the storm, 20 others injured.

Different weather problems in Colorado where driving conditions in Denver are icy and dangerous tonight. Twenty-eight cars today crashed into one another. Some people, as their cars were sliding toward the already smashed cars, tried to jump out of their cars, some tried to hold them back to avoid from being part of the pileup. One woman was almost hit by another car in the accident. Twenty-eight vehicles involved in this smashup.

In Utah, amazing scenes captured by an amateur photographer of houses being swept away by rushing floodwaters. Eighteen homes in all were destroyed or condemned. Police tonight are warning people to stay away from banks of rivers, saying that spectators are slowing emergency efforts and, of course, putting their own lives at risk.

In California, authorities say rescue efforts at the La Conchita mudslide have been put on hold after geologists warned of another possible mudslide, saying that the hill from which that mud did slide down on to these houses and the people within them in some cases -- saying that that hill has shifted. The geologist said the hillside has already moved at least six feet today.

My guest tonight says immigration reform and border security are top priorities. He's introduced two new pieces of legislation, one aimed at stopping the flow of illegal aliens into this country and stopping employers from hiring them. The other proposed legislation deals with criminal aliens clogging our court system.

Joining me now is Congressman David Dreier of California. Congressman Dreier is the chairman of the House Rules Committee, a member of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security.

Congressman, good to have you with us.

REP. DAVID DREIER (R), CALIFORNIA: Well, Lou, it's always good to be with you. Happy new year. And let me thank you for your coverage that you all have been providing into the tragic circumstance with Mother Nature out here and to say that you and I still have very important and major disagreements, even though I'm going to try to get you to agree with me on this one issue, and that is the fact that we have obviously seen a tremendous flow of people across the border.

And we know why it is that they come to the United States. They come here seeking economic opportunity. And so I join with my Democratic colleague, Congressman Sylvester Reyes of Texas, who was the chairman of the Hispanic Caucus and a longtime Border Patrol agent, and the legislation calls for the establishment of a counterfeitproof Social Security card which will be necessary for people when they are applying for a new job.

And I call it the Bonner plan, because T.J. Bonner, who has been a guest, he told me, on your program, many times, is the president of the National Border Patrol Council. He believes that we can, Lou, reduce by 98 percent the number of illegal border crossings so that the Border Patrol will be able to focus on what you and I and the other most -- all Americans want them to focus on, and that is our national security.

DOBBS: So in effect, what will happen, Congressman, is that a new identification card, the Social Security card, that will not be capable of being counterfeited, will not only be identification, but it will be required for employers who hire illegal aliens or legal immigrants to check those social security cards with a national data bank.

DREIER: The short answer to your question is no. You've used the term identification twice. I got -- we made one up out of an old Vaughn's card here, and basically the card will consist of the Social Security card. Which, this is what it's been for 1937 years, for 68 years, nothing but a piece of paper. And now what we have is it will be a photo embedded card, with social security on it, an algorithm strip on the back, which simply states whether you're an American citizen exactly, if you're here under a work permit, information that the government already has.

But Lou, it has something else at the bottom. It says this is not a national identification card. I was just with my friend...

DOBBS: Well Congressman, in the interest of time, let's be as succinct as we can. You may call it not an identification card, a national identification card, for political purposes, but in point of fact, it is designed not to be counterfeited, correct?

DREIER: Correct.

DOBBS: It would identify the holder?

DREIER: It identifies the holder when they're applying for a new job, go ahead.

DOBBS: Well, I mean, it identifies them period.

DREIER: Lou...

DOBBS: Wait, Congressman, if I may. There's no reason for contravention or argument here. I'm trying to just get the facts out for all of us. The fact is this would give employers a clear channel to a data bank that would say whether that person was legal or illegal and there would be a direct connection, correct?

DREIER: That is correct.

But let me tell you why this is not a national identification card. It's not going to be utilized for getting on an airplane. You are gainfully employed. I know Dick parsons told me you're going to be there for a long period of time, you won't need one, because you're not going to be applying for a new job for a long period of time.

The fact is, any senior citizen will not have to have one of these cards. Only individuals applying for a new job will need to have this Social Security card. So, that's why it's not a national I.D. card. DOBBS: The way in which it's used is helpful for identification. Let's go to the second part of this. You're coming straight out the White House here. This isn't in their plan. Have you talked to them? Are they going to support you with this?

DREIER: Yes, I have. I have. I've -- we had a meeting with the president last -- bicameral meeting with him last week focusing on Social Security. I've talked to Karl Rove at length about this issue.

And frankly, I listened to a clip from some of my colleagues earlier. We're still in the process of putting together the president's reform proposal, he is, and the Congress will be. I will tell you that a guest worker program must go hand in hand with having this counterfeit proof Social Security card because of the economic demand that exists here. So I think we can come together, Lou. You know, I like to find areas of agreement, that's one of the reasons why I introduced this, so I can finally find an area of agreement with you. And so...

DOBBS: It's a good start, Congressman.

DREIER: Well, we've got a ways to go, but my colleague John Kyl, in the Senate is going will be introducing this next week when the Senate convenes. And I think that we can get support all the way across the board for it.

DOBBS: Well we wish you well with this. It's an important beginning. And hopefully it will find considerable support.

DREIER: And we need to pass the Free Trade are of the Americas...

DOBBS: Oh, congressman, congressman. It's like baseball. Your average can be good, but nonetheless, it is an average -- you're making it slide just a bit with me now.

DREIER: I know. It's key to this whole effort of keeping people fleeing from across the border, Lou.

DOBBS: There are a lot of keys here, you know, Congressman. We're going to talk about them in the weeks ahead when you come back and we'll discuss them further. Thank you.

DREIER: Thanks, Lou. See you.

DOBBS: A reminder now to vote on our poll tonight. The question is, "Do you believe legalizing illegal workers will take pressure off our nation's borders as President Bush suggests. Yes or No." Please cast you vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up.

Taking a look now at some of your thoughts.

Rich Kelpert of Sedona, Arizona, "We forget Social Security is not savings account, it's a safety net. What if we have another crisis like the depression? At the pace of outsourcing jobs and deficit spending, huge growing trade imbalances don't look good for retirement for anyone."

And George Polozie of Ellington, Connecticut, "We've been hearing for years now that we're going to crack down on unfair trade practices with China. How can anyone tell us that is how we are going to solve our trade imbalance problems. As for buying Chinese products, what else can one earning minimum wage in this country afford to buy? Illegal aliens drive down our buying power even more."

And Ronald in Salem, Indiana, "Mr. Dobbs, it seems our elected officials are more concerned about the results of future elections than they are about developing a workable solution to the out of control influx of illegal aliens."

As you've just heard, some people on Capitol Hill are trying to do something about it. Perhaps it's the beginning of something big.

We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com.

Returning now to our top story, the escalating insurgency in Iraq, U.S. officials now admit the campaign to terrorize Iraqi voters ahead of the January 30 election will succeed to some degree. Those officials, however, say the elections must go ahead as scheduled in order to deny the insurgents a claim of victory. Joining me now is General David Grange. General good to have you with us.

GEN. DAVID GRANGE, U.S. ARMY (RET): Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: I want to ask you 2 things, general, right off the top. One is acknowledging that the insurgency will succeed here, the second is on the CIA estimate that we're going to see rising terrorism over the course of time between now and 2020.

Let's begin with Iraq. How can we, at this point, the United States, bring about a secure election with our top officials, our military planners our top general at the Pentagon, our State Department, saying don't expect too much?

GRANGE: Well, first of all, the insurgency will not succeed. I don't think that's correct. The insurgency will eventually be defeated. Coming up on these elections, yes, there's a race for the 30th of January, roads are not secure, some areas won't be able to vote. But the bottom line is a lot of areas will be secure, there will be an election, and they're secure to some extent almost all the polling areas to do the elections.

DOBBS: General, when I said -- you said that isn't correct -- I'm simply quoting the White House officials who are acknowledging that there will be, to some degree, a success for the insurgents in affecting the election. I would join with you in the hope that we would defeat the insurgents.

But they're getting bolder, and the attacks are stepping up. And we've got through I don't know how many iterations, general, as you well know, and as you have analyzed and we've discussed on this broadcast for just about 2 years, we've been told that the terrorist attacks would and insurgent attacks would increase leading up to the handover to the Iraqi interim government. We were told that they will would increase following the handover. Now as the discussion moves toward elections, we were told they'll increase again, and following the elections we're told they will increase.

What in the world are the American people supposed to think, general, when our Pentagon, with some of the smartest, best-trained, most experienced combat officers cannot take control of a country of 25 million people and put at risk our young men and women in uniform? And deny stability and security to the Iraqis are who are trying -- for whom we're trying to bring democracy and order?

GRANGE: Yes. That's the crux of the matter. 25 million people in this land mass in urban areas, yes, I think up-front what should have been said is this will take an awful long time. And it's not going to happen overnight. And it's not going to happen after the first of the year, or halfway through the next year. It's going to take a while.

But the progress is being made. And what really bothers me quite a bit is that a lot of times we're not hearing about some of these successes. I mean, they just removed not too long ago 3 of Zarqawi's 3 key subordinate leaders. That's not even talked about. That's a blow to the enemy insurgency.

And I think that there's some progress being made that we just don't see.

DOBBS: Well, general, I know you well enough, and we've known each other for some time, to know you're a straight-talking, straightforward fellow are there is that has served the country as well as one of the bravest and the most able. The fact is, no matter what we're doing to Zarqawi, the fact is the that insurgency is building, the attacks are more powerful, and the injury and deaths that they bring to Iraqis and to young Americans are rising. How can we say we're doing better?

GRANGE: Because I don't really think the insurgency is growing. I think they're offensive operations have increased. And until the support of people in certain areas in Iraq, until we beat them on a human intelligence game, in other words, this is street information, it's going to take a while. And that's some of the things that must be overcome.

DOBBS: That brings me, general, to the other question I wanted to direct you on the Nation Intelligence Council talking about terrorism, intensifying and reaching new heights by 2020. Coming from the CIA, the fact is we're not seeing great remarkable intelligence successes in Iraq. And we've been there some time. We have the current head and previous head of the CIA saying it's going to take 5 years to create a successful effective, covert force for the United States through the CIA. Now this estimate of 2020, in which the promise is greater terrorism.

What in the world should we be doing in the relationship between our military operations, our war on terror and our intelligence community?

Because these are just not acceptable answers, I have to believe for the American people.

GRANGE: Yes, terrorism will be on the increase. I mean, it's a tactic of choice by the underdog. By those who don't have the power to meet powerful nations armies or economic prowess, whatever the case maybe, head on. So it will increase. It's a tactic of choice. And what happened, as you know, decades ago, our intelligence capability for counter-terrorism was taken down to its knees, and it's taken a long time to rebuild. And some of these capabilities take three decades and we're basically still catching up.

DOBBS: General David Grange, as always, good to have you here.

GRANGE: Thank you, Lou. My pleasure.

DOBBS: Still ahead, a conservative Republican promises to reform two of President Bush's best-known accomplishments.

And then drug companies making friends on Capitol Hill, imagine that. Some critics say it's jeopardizing our nation's health and well-being. Our special report "Overmedicated Nation" coming up.

And giving relief to millions of survivors of the deadly Asian tsunamis. The head of the USAID, he's just returned from the region. He's our guest next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: My next guest is a conservative Republican. He's promising to reform two of the presidents most significant accomplishments. Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana wants to roll back much of the brand new Medicare prescription drug benefit and the No Child Let Behind Law. He's a member of it is House Judiciary Committee and joins us tonight from Capitol Hill. Congressman, good to have you with us.

MIKE PENCE (R), INDIANA: Thank you, Lou, great to be on.

DOBBS: A lot of people have got to be surprised, that here you are a Republican, a respected conservative member of the president's party, wanting to roll back two of his favored programs. Let's start with No Child Left Behind. What could you do?

PENCE: Well, I'll tell you, Lou, in both cases, I think I and many conservatives on Capitol Hill liked what the president proposed, but didn't necessarily feel as strongly about the final version of the bill. You know, on education, the president said we're going -- going to have testing. But when we find schools that fail for two or three consecutive years in our -- in some of our inner city areas, we're going to give those parents educational choice to go to the public or private school that their children wish to attend. But frankly, when Senator Kennedy got ahold of the bill, gone was the educational choice, and what was left behind was a massive increase in the Department of Education and national testing on the elementary school level.

DOBBS: I want to have you back, Congressman, if you could, to talk about this issue of choice in education, because for millions of American, as you know, the choice was made centuries ago, a commitment to public education. And to see Congress or anyone turn their back on public education, I don't see why we don't take control of our public schools, which have been the absolute generator of opportunity and accomplishment, and obviously education, even wealth in this country. I just hate to heard it.

PENCE: And I think, Lou, educational choice, as we've seen in Milwaukee where it's being implemented, and many parents given choice go to the public school closest to their home. Educational choice is about letting parents take control. It was what the president first wanted to do, and I would love to see us get to it.

DOBBS: I'd sign up for that part.

Let's go to another part, and that's the drug in benefit in Medicare.

PENCE: You bet.

DOBBS: That programs, significant, the biggest change in, actually, the program since its creation. Important part of an adaptation in the safety net, what's your problem with it?

PENCE: Well, the problem is, once again, President Bush came to Capitol Hill, and he wanted to create a benefit in Medicare for the 1 in 4 seniors who currently lack prescription drug coverage, and you know Congress, which is the land of the $400 hammer, Lou, decided to create a one size fits all massive new federal entitlement. What I and Congressman Zack Wamp and others would like to do is put a means test in that prescription drug entitlement before it takes effect so that we focus those resources on the seniors who really need the help.

DOBBS: You know, Congressman, I couldn't agree with you more about the importance of means testing, I think that -- but that's something Congress has obviously resisted. Congress, when I say that, both parties have resisted, because it seems absolutely irrational that citizens of this country have benefited and succeeded and have the personal means to provide for themselves would take advantage of the program, which ultimately denies that service for others. So you and I are doing pretty good here tonight. Let me ask you another question, if I may.

PENCE: Please.

DOBBS: And that's Social Security. Because what you're suggesting to me in these areas, it seems doesn't take much of an extension to think that you, Congressman, are not behind Social Security reform as the president's proposing right now.

PENCE: I and some House conservatives have said no to the president in the past. But on his vision for creating for younger Americans, the opportunity personal savings accounts, conservatives in the Congress are anxious to say yes. The president has a vision that will give not only younger Americans choice and a better return on their retirement, but Lou, it will save Social Security for the 21st century.

DOBBS: Well, the 21st century is getting at hand, but still almost 100 years away. I just don't understand the fascination on this administration, maybe you can help. We have an unfunded liability, about $1.5 trillion for the Social Security system, and he wants to reform that and a few people in his party, but we have an unfunded liability for Medicare and Medicaid double that, $25 trillion. Why in the world are we focusing on something that's funded for 40 more years absolutely, and something that's going bankrupt before our eyes with huge, huge implications.

PENCE: Well, truthfully, you know, my and other members' efforts to try to rein in that Medicare prescription drug entitlement are directly connected to trying to reform Social Security in a way that will bend the growth curve in the future. It's about putting our fiscal house in order, Lou, and conservatives are committed to help this president do just that.

DOBBS: Well, I've got to say, Congressman, that's a tall order, because the past so far has been rocky, to say the least, as we watched the deficits explode and the size of government enlarge every year.

Congressman, come back soon, we'll talk more. Thank you.

PENCE: Thank you, Lou. Great to be on.

DOBBS: In our series of special reports, we're focusing the -- on this "Overmedicated Nation." We've looked this week at how your health and life may not always be the top priority for drug agencies nor the regulatory agencies who are responsible for the public safety. Tonight we focus on officials, elected to represent your interests on Capitol Hill, but too often their focus is on the drug companies themselves.

Lisa Sylvester reports from Washington.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The drug industry and related interests shelled out more than $140 million lobbying Washington in 2003 alone. The industry also gave generous campaign contributions, more than $14 million in the last election.

FRANK CLEMENTE, PUBLIC CITIZEN'S CONGRESS WATCH: I liken it to an octopus. It has its tentacles everywhere. It spends the most amount of money lobbying, has the most number of lobbyists, eight lobbyists for every senator.

SYLVESTER: Critics say Congress has become too cozy with the drug companies. On the major issues affecting the industry, from drug reimportation from Canada to price controls, to the Medicare bill, the industry won out. REP. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: The public is more and more aware that their Congress is betraying them, that their Congress is selling them out to the drug industry, that Congress way too often on health care issues responds to the highest bidder.

SYLVESTER: Another criticism, the revolving door. Congressman Billy Tauzin, who helped craft the Medicare bill, now heads the group the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America. Tom Scully, former head of the Medicare program, is now a lobbyist working on Medicare issues. Former Congressman Bob Walker is now a lobbyist, whose clients include Wyeth Pharmaceuticals. He argues there is nothing wrong with the revolving door.

BOB WALKER, WALKER & WALKER PUBLIC POLICY ASSOC.: I happen to think it's a positive thing to have members of Congress who have worked for the American people in their role as Congress to come out into the representational community and carry those same standards and those same values into the work that they do in the private sector, because I think that does assure that the public interest is protected.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: Former members of Congress hired by special interests groups have to sit out for a year and cannot do any direct lobbying. But Billy Tauzin, for example, in the next year can still direct his staff and tell them who to lobby, and then in addition, Tauzin as a former member of the House, has floor privileges for life, meaning he can walk onto the House floor during a vote on an issue and still wield a great deal of influence -- Lou.

DOBBS: Lisa, thank you very much. An extraordinarily fascinating system we have created for ourselves in this country. Thank you.

It's been two and a half weeks since the tsunamis hit Southern Asia tonight. Why much-needed aid still has not reached many areas. The head of the U.S. Agency for International Development will be our guest here next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The United States, 80 other countries contributing to the extensive relief aid in Southern Asia. Andrew Natsios is the administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development. He's just returned from the region, joins us tonight from Washington. And good to have you with us.

With that extensive relief effort, what is your sense of how well it's going? We've pledged in this country $350 million. Is that money, that support moving into immediate relief for the people affected in the region?

ANDREW NATSIOS, USAID ADMINISTRATOR: Well, we've already committed $90 million of that 350 of actual programs on the ground, in giving grants to charities and organizations, in buying relief commodities. And we've moved about $20 million of that in U.S. food into the areas where people were most affected. But it will accelerate. We're trying to use some of that money to begin the rehabilitation process. For example, when Secretary Powell and I were in Sri Lanka, the secretary announced an AID program of $10 million to begin to rehouse people.

DOBBS: Let me ask you this, is it palpable, is it obvious, the impact this aid is having in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the hardest-hit regions?

NATSIOS: Well, I can only tell by our reception by people, and I have to say it was so warm and so enthusiastic. We have 150 AID staff working on this in the four countries most affected, and they're reporting very close coordination, very close relationships with local government officials, with the national governments of these countries. These are all democracies.

DOBBS: We're getting reports from Indonesia, of course, that the Indonesian government wants the United States out, the military out by March, that security is being provided for some of the aid workers because of the tensions that exist there. How significant is it, in your opinion?

NATSIOS: Well, one, our ambassador, Lynn Pascoe, who Secretary Powell and Jeb Bush visited with when they were there -- he's a very able guy -- went in to see the vice president and said, is that true? And he said, no, it's not true. We were giving you the date when we hope the entire military phase of this will be over. But it's not a deadline, it is simply we're hoping we can move to rehabilitation and reconstruction. So they said there is no deadline.

DOBBS: And you're satisfied that the United States is, although you've stepped aside for the United Nations, is satisfied that our role is sufficiently prominent, giving the fact that this is a super- power with worldwide responsibilities?

NATSIOS: Well, we've actually had complaints that we're too visible. The U.S. military and AID are the most prominent players on the ground. And we understand that. We're trying to help people out here. I think that people...

DOBBS: Well, we are visible in so many ways, as you know, Andrew.

NATSIOS: We do.

DOBBS: It's nice to see you visible there in the right way, and for the best of reasons. That often isn't a choice in public policy and international relations.

We thank you, Andrew Natsios, for being here.

NATSIOS: Thank you.

DOBBS: Still ahead, the results of our poll tonight, a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The results of tonight's poll -- and I would suggest, hope, think that our elected representatives on Capitol Hill might be taking a peek at this poll, in which 96 percent of you responded to say you believe legalizing illegal workers will not take pressure off our nation's borders, as the president has suggested.

Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us here tomorrow. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

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