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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Chaos in Iraq; U.S. Confirms North Korea's Nuclear Test
Aired October 16, 2006 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KITTY PILGRIM, HOST: Tonight, 55 Americans have been killed in Iraq so far this month. October is shaping up to be one of the deadliest months of the entire war.
And the United States now says there is no doubt that North Korea carried out a nuclear test. Two of this country's leading authorities on North Korea's nuclear threat will join us.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT, news, debate and opinion for Monday, October 16th.
Kitty Pilgrim is sitting in for Lou Dobbs, who is on assignment tonight in San Francisco.
PILGRIM: Good evening, everybody.
Insurgents in Iraq have killed another 16 of our troops. Each and every day, nearly four American troops are being killed in Iraq -- 2,770 of our troops have been killed since this war began.
One of Iraq's most prominent insurgent groups has offered a new set of conditions for peace talks. CNN has obtained exclusive access to a videotaped message from the group.
Jamie McIntyre reports from the Pentagon on new questions about U.S. strategy in Iraq.
Michael Ware reports from Baghdad on the insurgent group's conditions for negotiations.
And Bill Schneider reports from Washington on a new CNN poll showing unprecedented opposition to the war.
We turn to Jamie McIntyre first -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kitty, all the talk in Washington about changing the strategy in Iraq is sending jitters through Iraq's fledgling new government.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: With the alarming rise and the rate of U.S. casualties in Iraq, 55 dead so far this month and almost three times that many Americans seriously wounded, and with Iraqi casualties running even higher, the calls for change are getting louder from President Bush's own party.
SEN. CHUCK HAGEL (R), NEBRASKA: We clearly need a new strategy. Obviously by any measurement, we're in a lot of trouble in Iraq.
MCINTYRE: The White House says President Bush called Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who was troubled by rumors the U.S. might be losing patient with him and could impose a timeline for bringing the violence under control.
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The prime minister also wanted to make it clear, for instance, that -- that -- that talk of, you know, giving timetables or expiration dates or whatever to the government were not only undermining the government, but also inspiring terrorists, is the term he used.
MCINTYRE: The White House says President Bush reassured Maliki he has the full support of the U.S., and in return, Maliki dismissed the notion of partition of Iraq. But many experts question whether Maliki, in office for only four months, has the political clout to unite the Sunni and Shia factions.
LAWRENCE KORB, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: The situation in Iraq is getting worse because the unity government -- so-called unity government -- is really not a unity government. Prime Minister Maliki has not taken the steps that he needs to do to disband the militias or to create a sense of a unified -- unified Iraq.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: Speculation that the Iraq Study Group, an independent panel headed by former secretary of state James Baker, may recommend a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops. But sources familiar with the commission members tell CNN that so far there's no consensus on what a new strategy should be -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much.
Jamie McIntyre.
One of Iraq's most prominent insurgent groups has laid out a series of conditions to begin negotiations. The Islamic Army of Iraq said those conditions could lead to peace talks with the United States.
Michael Ware has this exclusive report from Baghdad.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We've had a very rare opportunity to gain access to the Islamic Army of Iraq insurgent organization. This is the leading insurgent group among a broad faction of the insurgency responsible for many of the attacks against U.S. forces. We effectively were able to conduct an interview with the spokesman of this group by forwarding questions and having that videotaped response come back.
Now, it's fascinating stuff. Here, he comes out and says the lead-up to the midterm elections -- reiterates the group's offer to hold negotiations or discussions with U.S. forces. He also gives us a window into the structure of his organization and the role of al Qaeda in the insurgency. He also gives a reality check on the sectarian violence, all throughout making very many savvy American cultural references from the Vietnam War, to Watergate, to President Bush's "mission accomplished" statement.
But he also talked about one of the motivating factors behind the Sunni insurgency. And that's fear of Iranian interference.
He says very clearly to CNN that a byproduct of the U.S. occupation is the entrenchment of Iranian influence here in Iraq. And he says this is one of the major motivating forces that is sustaining the insurgency.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): America and Iran have occupied Iraq. America is the disease that caused the infection, which is the Iranian occupation.
WARE: So, this is a very, very savvy address to the people of America. So in this interview, we hear this key insurgent group talking directly to the people of America, asking them to question President Bush's record on Iraq. He certainly vows that the insurgency is going nowhere, yet reiterates the chance to discuss what effectively would be cease-fire or peace talks.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: That was Michael Ware reporting from Baghdad.
Turning to the nuclear crisis with communist North Korea, there are new fears tonight that North Korea may be planning a second nuclear test. That, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prepares to visit Asia.
Suzanne Malveaux reports from the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice over): With confirmation that North Korea did indeed conduct a nuclear test, and is possibly ready to carry out another, a measured warning from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: It goes to say that that would further deepen the isolation of North Korea. And I hope they would not take such a provocative act.
MALVEAUX: On the eve of Rice's trip to northeast Asia, the Bush administration faces a critical test: whether it can convince members of the U.N. Security Council, which approved tough sanctions against North Korea, to follow through. China is already balking at interdicting cargo entering or leaving North Korea for fear that it will escalate tensions.
WANG GUANGYA, CHINESE AMB. TO U.N.: Inspections, yes. But inspection is different from interception and interdiction. I think in that area, different countries would do it in different ways.
MALVEAUX: Rice tried to downplay those differences, as well as suggestions that China and others may be getting cold feet.
RICE: I am not concerned that the Chinese are going to turn their backs on their obligations. I don't think they would have voted for a resolution that they did not intend to carry through on.
MALVEAUX: But carrying through may be tough for some allies who each have their own interests at stake. China, which shares an 880- mile border with North Korea, insisted that as part of the U.N. resolution, any inspections of North Korean cargo would be voluntary for each state. South Korea also fears an embargo could lead to a military confrontation with its northern neighbor.
RICE: We have no desire to ratchet up conflict either, but we'll have some discussions on precisely how this will be carried out.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: And of course, Kitty, that really is the big challenge here, just how they're going to follow up and define those sanctions to carry them out that is satisfactory to all of those members of the U.N. Security Council. And the bigger question, even then so, whether or not those sanctions are ultimately going to accomplish what the United States and its allies want to do, and that is to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much.
Suzanne Malveaux.
Well, as Suzanne just reported, communist China appears reluctant to enforce tough sanctions against North Korea. In some areas, Chinese officials appear to have stepped up inspections, but in other areas, there were no additional border checks today. But Chinese troops are building a new fence along parts of the frontier. And the goal apparently is to stop North Korean defectors from entering China.
A new CNN polls show's the public's view of the North Korean crisis is being heavily influenced by their views on Iraq. Now, the poll says support for the war in Iraq has plummeted to an all-time low.
Bill Schneider reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice over): Leading Republicans now acknowledge that the situation in Iraq is bad.
SEN. JOHN WARNER (R), VIRGINIA: It seems to me that the situation is simply drifting sidewise.
HAGEL: We clearly need a new strategy. Obviously by any measurement, we're in a lot of trouble in Iraq. SCHNEIDER: Nearly two-thirds of Americans now say they oppose the war in a new CNN poll conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation. That includes a majority of men and an overwhelming 70 percent of women.
Pessimism about Iraq is contributing to a continuing deterioration in President Bush's support. Sixty-one percent now disapprove of Bush's job as president, his worst rating ever.
The president's rating on Iraq is even lower. Sixty-four percent disapprove.
But Mr. Bush's ratings on North Korea are not so bad. Forty- seven to 41 percent approve.
The president's approach to North Korea has been less bellicose.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So my administration decided to take a new approach. We brought together other nations in the region in an effort to resolve the situation through multilateral diplomacy.
SCHNEIDER: Sixty percent of Americans believe the situation with North Korea can be resolved using diplomacy and economic sanctions. More than 70 percent believed that three years ago.
Suppose diplomacy and sanctions fail. Would the public favor taking military action against North Korea? Three years ago Americans were divided. Now a majority opposes military action.
Why? Iraq. More than 70 percent of Americans believe the war in Iraq is making it harder for the United States to deal with North Korea.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: We've also been hearing a debate over whether the Bush administration's policies or the Clinton administration's policies are more to blame for the problems with North Korea. Now 53 percent of Americans say they blame the Bush administration a great deal or a moderate amount. Forty-three percent blame the Clinton administration -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much.
Bill Schneider.
Still to come, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez makes a final push to frustrate U.S. interests and win a seat on the U.N. Security Council.
We'll have the latest on that.
Plus, the rising threat to our national security through marriage fraud by illegal aliens.
And the government says our population is about to reach 300 million, but how accurate are the government's figures?
We'll have a special report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: An important new congressional report will be released tomorrow on the rise in drug violence on the U.S. border with Mexico. This report will be released by the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Investigations.
It makes clear that violence on the U.S. border with Mexico has never been worse, as Mexican drug cartels fight for dominance. It says Mexican drug gang violence is now seriously affecting the violent crime rate in this country. In fact, the FBI is reporting a 2.3 percent increase in violent crime in this country. Murders, robberies and violent assaults are all on the rise.
Attorney General Gonzales today said we begin new initiatives to battle violent crime.
Also, in "Broken Borders" tonight, federal agents are launching new crackdowns on sham illegal alien marriage rackets. And the Census Bureau is proving it had no idea how many illegal aliens now live in this nation.
Casey Wian reports on the U.S. government's marriage fraud crackdown. And Christine Romans reports on dangers of this nation's newest population boom.
We begin with Casey in Los Angeles -- Casey.
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, Immigration and Customs Enforcement tonight is preparing to expand a nationwide task force cracking down on marriage fraud by illegal aliens.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE, "GREEN CARD": I now pronounce you man and wife.
WIAN (voice over): It was cute and charming in the 1990 movie "Green Card".
BEBE NEUWIRTH, "GREEN CARD": You're together?
ANDIE MACDOWELL, "GREEN CARD": Sort of.
WIAN: An American woman agrees to marry an unknown foreigner so he can obtain a green card. But today immigration-related marriage fraud is a sophisticated rising threat to national security.
Take Operation Newlywed Game, for example. Immigration and Customs Enforcement says the Santa Ana, California, investigation uncovered a marriage fraud scheme that charged Chinese and Vietnamese nationals up to $60,000 to arrange fake marriages. Last month, one of the ringleaders pleaded guilty to performing more than 70 sham marriages.
ICE says investigated nearly 3,600 marriage and other document fraud cases in 2005, a 54 percent jump over the previous year. It obtained nearly 1,000 convictions. Those are up 77 percent.
STEVE CAMAROTA, CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES: Specifically in the marriage area, it's an attractive avenue for fraud because there isn't an existing relationship. You don't have to show that you're related to someone. And it's on the fast track to get your green card. You marry an American, you get your green card quick, you're on a fast crack actually for citizenship as well.
WIAN: Camarota says fraud is difficult to detect because federal immigration authorities are overwhelmed by hundreds of thousands of legitimate visa applications. However, ICE is now beginning to devote more resources to uncovering immigration fraud. The agency has now set up marriage and document fraud task forces in 10 U.S. cities and plans to expand the operation to more than a dozen others soon.
While most illegal aliens coming to the United States sneak across the Mexican border, most marriage fraud cases involve immigrants from Asia, Europe, and Africa, and are more likely to be national security threats.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: The House and Senate have each passed different versions of a bill that would increase criminal penalties for marriage and other immigration fraud from five years now to 15 to 20 years. But Congress has failed to act and actually put those provisions into law -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much.
Casey Wian.
A new poll says the illegal alien crisis could affect the outcome in 14 tight congressional races next month. It says there is intense voter concern about illegal immigration in 10 close House races and four close Senate races.
Now, in this poll, more than half of likely voters say immigration is a top concern this November. Only eight percent said the issue is not important.
Almost half of those polled favor an enforcement-only approach to the illegal alien crisis. Now, this poll was conducted by the Center for Immigration Studies.
The Census Bureau says sometime this month the population of the United States will officially hit 300 million people. And some say the country reached this milestone years ago. It's proof of how little is known about who is in this country, especially those here illegally.
Christine Romans reports. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): It took this country more than 100 years to reach a population of 100 million. Lyndon Johnson was president for the 200 million mark. Today this country adds a new resident every 11 seconds. Only China and India have more people.
ROY BECK, NUMBERSUSA: As the polls have shown, since most Americans oppose the government forcing higher population growth, then the last thing you want to do is be adding to their congestion, adding to their population with people who do not have even the right to be here.
ROMANS: The Census Bureau says 300 million is America's population, but it's possible that milestone was hit several years ago because of the flood of illegal immigration over the past decades. The government doesn't know how many illegal aliens there are. The Department of Homeland Security estimates 11.5 million. But a report last year by Bear Stearns estimates 20 million illegal aliens.
If you believe the government statistics, we're on track for 400 million people by 2043. And by the end of the century, 600 million.
DAVID PIMENTEL, CORNELL UNIVERSITY: I think a lot of people do not appreciate the population issue. And let me push one other number. The United States population is increasing at a rate 2.5 times higher per capita than the Chinese population. And we can't continue to grow this way.
ROMANS: An agriculture professor, he's concerned about unfettered population growth taxing water supplies land resources.
Environmentalists are alarmed as well.
VICKY MARKHAM, CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENT: One characteristic that comes out -- comes up time and again is sprawl. And that's the very spread out kind of development that many of us see around us. This sprawl is the most predominant form of land use change in the whole United States.
ROMANS: At this pace, Americans will be forced to cut back on their lifestyles to share the resources.
(on camera): It's why many are not celebrating 300 million quite the way they celebrated 200 million, imagining for the first time in our history a country less well off in a generation.
Christine Romans, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: The country's energy infrastructure may not be ready for the population boom. A report out today by the North American Reliability Council says energy companies are not building enough power plants and power lines to meet demand in the future. The report says demand is expected to increase by 19 percent over the next 10 years, while capacity is expected to increase by less than half of that.
Well, that does bring us to the subject of tonight's poll. Do you believe that the population explosion in the United States is hurting the standard of living for America's beleaguered middle class? Yes or no?
Cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll bring you the results a little bit later in the broadcast.
Still ahead, who will the United Nations side with, Hugo Chavez's Venezuela or the United States? We're live at the U.N. with the very latest on a battle for a seat on the powerful U.N. Security Council.
Plus, the war on the middle class, think you won't be affected? Think again.
And the latest damage assessment from the huge earthquake that rocked Hawaii. We'll have a live report from Hawaii.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: High drama at the United Nations tonight. Guatemala and Venezuela squared off over a vacant seat at the U.N. Security Council. Guatemala was supported by the United States. Venezuela has the support of anti-American countries all across the world.
Richard Roth has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RICHARD ROTH, CNN SR. U.N. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The General Assembly turned into a giant horse race parlor as Venezuela battled Guatemala for a seat on the prestigious U.N. Security Council.
HERALDO MUNOZ, CHILEAN AMB. TO U.N.: I think if I knew I'd be buying a lottery game ticket right away...
ROTH: The oil-rich giant Venezuela ran against the smaller Guatemala, but for months it seemed to be competing against the United States. Washington backed Guatemala, accusing Venezuela of spreading its oil wealth to win votes. Critics of Caracas warned if Venezuela got on the Security Council it would be a major distraction inside the chamber and an obstacle to U.S. goals.
In the early rounds of secret ballots, Guatemala held a sizable lead over Venezuela, but not more than the two-thirds required for election. U.S. Ambassador Bolton worked the room for votes, as did Venezuela.
FERNANDO ARIAS, VENEZUELAN AMB. TO U.N. (through translator): We're not competing with our brother nations. We're competing with the dominant world power. ROTH: To sweeten their chances, Venezuela passed out small bags of chocolate. Guatemala responded with reminder notes and indigenous fabric.
As the day wore on, the trend unraveled, as Venezuela started taking votes from Guatemala.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Guatemala, 103; Venezuela, 83.
(APPLAUSE)
JOHN BOLTON, U.S. AMB. TO U.N.: I suppose we'll go through a number of more rounds. And, you know, all I can say is, in the year 2000, I spent 31 days in Florida.
ROTH: But Chad wasn't in this runoff. The voting took place in the same General Assembly hall where the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, announced his now legendary denunciation of the U.S. and President Bush.
PRES. HUGO CHAVEZ, VENEZUELA (through translator): Yesterday, the devil came here, right here. And it smells of sulfur still today.
ROTH: But Venezuela began to potentially smell defeat as it faded a bit in later rounds but remained locked in a stalemate with Guatemala.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROTH: In the end, after 10 rounds of balloting, the voting was very similar to round one at 10:00 a.m., with Venezuela behind by 33 votes. Both countries say they're going to stay in. Guatemala's never been on the Security Council -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Richard, what will happen if it stays at a stalemate?
ROTH: It could go on for days. In 1979, it went for three months between Cuba and Colombia, but diplomats don't think that will happen. Another country could enter, maybe Chile, maybe the Dominican Republic. That's a possibility, but that wouldn't happen probably for a few more days.
PILGRIM: All right. Thanks very much.
Richard Roth.
Well, it's time now for some of your thoughts.
And Frank in Arkansas wrote us, "When the president says the economy is doing good, whose economy is he talking about, China's? His? His friends? The top one percent of money makers in the U.S.? It sure isn't the majority of the population of the country."
And Charles in North Carolina writes, "The middle class doesn't have to worry about suffering much longer, soon they won't exist."
E-mail us at loudobbs.com, and we'll have more of your thoughts a little bit later in the broadcast.
And each of you whose e-mail is read here will receive a copy Lou's new book, "War On the Middle Class".
Coming up, the war on the middle class. Everyone is suffering no matter what you do for a living.
Plus, author Michael Lind says America's pursuit of international dominance will ultimately lead to its downfall. He'll join us to explain.
And the aftermath of a powerful earthquake in Hawaii. We'll have a live report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Dozens of aftershocks are keeping people on edge in Hawaii. That's after a powerful 6.7 earthquake hit the island yesterday. Now the quake struck off the west coast of the Big Island. Hawaii's governor has declared the whole state a disaster area. There were some injuries but no fatalities were reported. Many structures were significantly damaged. Federal and state officials fanned out today to assess the safety of public buildings and roads and bridges.
Chris Lawrence is reporting from Hawaii tonight -- Chris.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, we're in Qui Hi (ph), which is north of Kona on the northwest corner of the Big Island. And most people here are telling us they feel like, with the magnitude of this quake, 6.7 magnitude, and least one very significant aftershock, things could have been a whole lot worse. We did see parts of the road, where it literally buckled and has just fallen away, huge boulders that have fallen down the mountain onto the main road.
But the crews made pretty quick work in breaking apart the boulders, getting them off the main road. There are still some bridges that are down. The earthquake damaged them structurally. The structural integrity was compromised, so they will be down for a while. We visited a school that was pretty heavily damaged by the earthquake, and saw at least one woman's home that survived the quaking and the tremors, but a power line snapped nearby, put it right into her house, set an electrical fire and burned her home to the ground. That's happens a lot with earthquakes, you see a lot of gas and electrical fires, sometimes even more dangerous than the actual shaking itself.
But overall, no one seriously hurt, no one killed. And with a quake of that magnitude, a lot of people here are feeling pretty lucky to get out of it with what they got -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Chris, how concerned are they about aftershocks? What are you hearing?
LAWRENCE: It's always a concern. And aftershocks can come even up to a couple of days later. So they're not out of the woods, yet. But so far people here, maybe that Hawaii spirit, nobody seems very depressed. Everybody seems upbeat and feels like they're going to clean up what they have to clean up and just keep moving on.
PILGRIM: All right.
Thanks very much, Chris Lawrence.
At least seven tornadoes touched down today in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. But there were no reports of injuries. Tornado watches in states along the Gulf Coast are expected to be dropped shortly.
Meanwhile, up to ten inches of rain hammered the Houston- Galveston area overnight, forcing road and school closings. Houston police say three people drowned in flash flooding. Two, when their SUV was swamped by eight feet of water on Interstate 45. A third was found in another submerged vehicle.
Now the lawless Mexican state of Oaxaca. It's being rocked by new violence. Gunmen shot two protesters at a roadblock there this weekend. One was killed. Oaxaca has been paralyzed by violent demonstrations for months. Protesters are demanding that the local government officials resign. The Mexican Senate could recommend as soon as this week to remove these officials from power. The U.S. government is still warning Americans to stay away from Oaxaca.
Civil rights attorney Lynne Stewart was sentenced today to 28 months in prison for helping terrorists around the world. Stewart was convicted of shuttling messages to terrorists through a client, a radical Egyptian cleric. Her sentencing was delayed for more than a year while she battled breast cancer. She says the disease is now in remission.
If you went to college and have a good job and think you're safe from financial disaster, do think again. The war on the middle class is taking a new toll on working professionals.
Lisa Sylvester reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER (voice-over): Andy Loomis is a Washington, D.C. graduate student. His wife is a consultant. They have a four year- old daughter, Olivia and another child on the way.
ANDY LOOMIS, WASHINGTON RESIDENT: You know, I'm well educated. My wife's well educated, and we're in a fairly good situation. But yet costs are high and it's tough making it by every month. And I think that's very common.
SYLVESTER: The variable interest rate on their home equity loan is taking a bigger bite out of their monthly check. It's up $250 a month. Factor in rising graduate school costs and health care expenses, and they're on the front lines of the war on the middle class.
More and more professionals and their families are finding it hard to keep up in this so-called economic recovery.
BETSY LEONDAR-WRIGHT, AUTHOR, "CLASS MATTERS": A lot of professional middle class families that thought that they were set because of their education and the high level of job that they have, they're finding it very hard, especially if they have private college tuitions to pay, they're finding it very hard to make ends meet.
SYLVESTER: Professional job growth has been sluggish at best. The economy added only 12,000 business service jobs in September, down from an average of 32,000. Many middle income families are feeling the pinch with the housing market cooling, expenses rising and salaries flattening.
BOB GREENSTEIN, CENTER FOR BUDGET & POLICY PRIORITIES: The person right in the middle of the income scale has lost ground. That person's income has fallen, once you adjust for rising prices, by $2,000 since 2001.
SYLVESTER: Professionals, including consultants and accountants, now share a common worry with blue collar manufacturing workers: the wholesale shipping of jobs to cheaper overseas labor markets.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER (on camera): Many middle class professionals are making up the difference between higher costs and flat income by borrowing. Credit card debt has increased to $1.8 trillion in 2005, from $70 billion in 1980 -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Very frightening trend.
Thanks very much, Lisa Sylvester.
Please join us this Wednesday for a LOU DOBBS TONIGHT special report, "War on the Middle Class". Lou will be reporting live from Kansas City, Missouri. That's this Wednesday, 7:00 p.m Eastern, here on CNN. And Lou's important new book, "War on the Middle Class" is currently available in bookstores and also online.
New developments tonight in Washington's ethics crisis. The FBI today raided the home of the daughter of Pennsylvania Congressman Curt Weldon. The FBI is investigating whether he improperly helped his daughter and her business partner win lobbying and consulting deals. Well, the Republican is in a tight bid for re-election. He has called the investigation politically motivated.
Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid said today that he is amending his report to the Senate Ethics Committee. In a Las Vegas deal three years ago, Reid sold land to a Nevada company, earning one million dollars. At first, Reid characterized the deal as a private land sale. An inaccurate reporting of the deal could violate Senate ethics rules. The senator says the recent stories are attempts by Republicans to impact the election.
The House Ethics Committee demanded a Congressman's aide about complaints he made to Speaker Hastert's office about Mark Foley. Now the aide to Louisiana Republican Rodney Alexander said he told the Speaker's office last fall of an e-mail from Foley to a former page from Louisiana.
When we return, China begins inspecting North Korean trucks as a part of U.N. sanctions. Our panel of experts on North Korea gives us their take on those sanctions and Secretary Rice's upcoming trip to the region.
And one author believes America's extended international reach may cause its downfall. Michael Lind from New America Foundation will be here. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Today the director of National Intelligence finally confirmed that North Korea did carry out a nuclear weapons test. The United Nations has responded to the test with a package of sanctions against North Korea.
Well, joining me now, two of the world's leading authorities on the North Korean nuclear threat. Gordon Chang is author of "Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World", and Frank Gaffney is the president of the Center for Security Policy.
And thanks for being with us, gentlemen.
PILGRIM: Let me start with you, Gordon. Proximity has its peril
The United Nations Security Council came together in a unanimous vote over the weekend. But it is not -- North Korea is not the only thing on the plate at the U.N. In fact, we're in fairly difficult times, aren't we?
GORDON CHANG, AUTHOR, "NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN:: I don't think it's just about North Korea and it's not just about Iran. You hear analysts talk about, we're fighting World War III, World War IV, I even heard someone say World War V. You know, people say, well, it's 1914 and 1938. And Henry Kissinger on the show said, at no point in history has there been so much change occurring at the same time. So this is a point of great consequence for us.
PILGRIM: Frank, would you agree this is a really crisis moment?
FRANK GAFFNEY, PRES., CTR. FOR SECURITY POLICY: Well, I have avoided this numerology problem by calling it "The War for the Free World". It's one of a number that we've confronted over the years, animated in part by Islamo-Fascist ideologues, but also some of these other states that we're talking about, Iran backing them, and of course, moving, if they could, towards a world in which they dominate under a caliphate kind of rule. North Korea angling for advantage in its region, China helping both, Russia helping both. Hugo Chavez, who appeared previously in the piece, working his will in our own hemisphere. This is indeed a dangerous world, and we keep losing sight of this larger complexion of it as our peril. PILGRIM: You know, let me call to attention something that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. She's leaving for Asia tomorrow to rally the support of our friends and allies, a very critical exercise. And she said that the international community's response to North Korea will send a signal to the Iranian government.
Let's listen to what she had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: The Iranian government is watching and i can now see that the international community will respond to threats from nuclear proliferation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: Gordon, do you think that this kind of a strong response will send a message to everyone else in the world?
CHANG: Certainly. Well, you know, right now the Iranians have been looking at the world's reaction to Kim Jong-Il's increasingly provocative behavior. And so, you know, if we don't have a good response, if our response is less than firm, the Iranians are going to see that as a big green light. And that also means Algeria, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, that whole area is going to go nuclear. So clearly, this is going to be something that everybody in the Middle East is looking at.
PILGRIM: But is the response sufficient, Frank?
GAFFNEY: No, it's not. I'm afraid that we have, in fact, signaled a green light, not we, but the Communist Chinese, who have basically sandbagged this process, insisted on three separate sets of changes till they got enough loopholes built into the resolution in the Security Council to make it more or less something that you could, well, drive a truck through.
And what we're now seeing is they're not enforcing it. Yes, there's some inspections going on. But I have the feeling they're not terribly rigorous. And in the end, Kitty, the point is the Communist Chinese government is propping up the North Korean regime, as is the South Korean government. If it weren't for their help, we would not be confronting this particular problem, I believe.
PILGRIM: Gordon, we have been putting a lot of pressure on the Chinese, some say not enough. Are there other allies we should be being stronger with?
CHANG: Yes. Many people say that Condoleezza Rice's most important stop will be Beijing. But I think that it will be Seoul, because the Chinese are pursuing policies that undermine ours largely because they think that they can get away with it. And they think they can get away with it because the South Koreans have adopted similar policies.
So if Condoleezza Rice and Seoul can resolidify out relationship, then the Chinese are the Chinese are going to alone. And when the Chinese are alone, when they don't have company, they have always been accommodating because they value their relationship with us more than their relationship with the North Koreans.
PILGRIM: There have been tensions with the South Koreans and the U.S. alliance. Are they unsurmountable, or is there something that we can do to help them along here?
CHANG: Well, you know, right now there is a growing new right movement in the South Korean electorate, which is almost evenly divided anyway. The conservatives have won almost every election and bi-election for the last 18 months. There's a new presidential election next year.
So even now, you can see President Roh Moo-hyun, who has policies that are different from ours, is starting to come back because he can see the tide in South Korea. And then certainly after the new president is elected, I think that they'll stand with the United States.
PILGRIM: And Frank, we also have a new president in Japan. Will that help?
GAFFNEY: New prime minister.
I think he will. In fact, I would argue with Gordon that Tokyo is probably the most important of these stops because Tokyo has gotten it clearly that there's a problem here with a North Korea that is not being checked either by the U.N. Security Council or by Communist China or by, I'm afraid, our South Korean allies.
And what we're needing to do now, I think, is really bring pressure to bear upon these various countries who are doing business with the North Koreans, making it unmistakable they have a choice: do business with us or do business with them, work with us or prop up this regime. And they're clearly intent on propping it up at the moment, and that is not good for us, it is not good for our friends in any of these capitals.
And I don't think it's good for the world because one of the things we have to be worried about is this North Korean nuclear program is almost certainly for sale. And Gordon correctly talked about some of the other parts of the regions of the world that we worry about, where there's an appetite for nuclear weapons. I wouldn't be surprised if people don't come with cash in hand to North Korea to get them.
PILGRIM: Let's listen to what Ambassador John Bolton said about the pressure that we're going to put on North Korea and how it's really up to North Korea to determine how intense that pressure becomes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN BOLTON, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: If you look at paragraph 15 of the operative section of the resolution, it says that, in light of North Korean compliance with the terms of the resolution, the sanctions could be increased, modified, suspended or lifted, so that we've left open all of the possibilities, depending on how North Korea itself behaves. That's why the ball is really in North Korea's court to see what direction we go in here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: Now there's some discussion of stopping North Korean ships, keeping a cordon on North Korean trade by ship. How far do you think it will go?
CHANG: I think it will eventually get to that because this is so consequential for us. As Frank points, you know, we're talking about sale of weapons. Kim Jong-Il's diplomats told ours in April 2003 that his country reserved the right to sell nuclear weapons. So this is not just a theoretical concern on the part of people in the United States. This is real.
PILGRIM: Frank, last word, and we have to do it quickly. I'm sorry.
GAFFNEY: Kitty, I'm a great admirer of John Bolton's. I hope he's right that we will see ratcheting up of this. I personally am convinced that the U.N. Security Council is not the answer. We need to act with the coalition of the willing, not militarily, but through the kinds of techniques Ronald Reagan used to bring down the Soviet Union. They are political warfare, they are counting up the cash flow, and taking sensible defensive measures of our own.
PILGRIM: All right. Thanks very much for being with us, Gordon Chang and Frank Gaffney, thank you.
A reminder now to vote in tonight's poll. Do you believe that the population explosion in the United States is hurting the standard of living for America's beleaguered middle class? Yes or no. Cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll bring you the results in just a few minutes.
And just ahead, a new book takes aim at U.S. foreign policy. Author Michael Lind said it could be the cause of America's downfall. And he'll join us when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Coming up here shortly on CNN, "THE SITUATION ROOM" with Wolf Blitzer -- Wolf.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Kitty. Coming up, I'll be speaking with the author of a controversial new book. David Kuo is a former White House insider, who says among other things, some members of the Bush administration are using Christian conservatives while mocking them behind their backs.
Also, new developments in the war of words between likely presidential contenders John McCain and Hillary Clinton. McCain speaking out to CNN tonight. We'll have the latest. Plus, an extraordinary offer from insurgents in Iraq. Our Michael Ware in Baghdad has the exclusive video. All that, Kitty, coming up in "THE SITUATION ROOM."
PILGRIM: Thanks, Wolf.
Now, a provocative new book says the United States foreign policy has been a dangerous failure for more than a decade. It says this country's desire for international dominance is a direct threat to the future of this nation and its democracy.
The book is called "The American Way of Strategy." The author is Michael Lind and he joins me tonight. Thanks for being with us.
MICHAEL LIND, AUTHOR: Good to be here.
PILGRIM: It's a tough read, I have to say, because of the way you tell it, we're doing it completely wrong.
You know, one of the great themes of this show is the middle class, and one of the great premises of your book is that a lot of military spending is actually damaging to prosperity and the middle class.
Let me quote from your book for a second. Americans beginning with the 18th century founders have believed that a democratic republic is most likely to flourish where the majority of people belong to a prosperous middle class.
How is our foreign policy damaging our middle class?
LIND: Well, Kitty, our goal in the two world wars and the Cold War was to create an international environment that was safe enough that we did not have to create a garrison state, a fortress America, in which the government for defense expenditures took up so much of the economy that it saps the resources available for healthy civilian middle class.
PILGRIM: Well, how do defense expenditures in World War II compare to the defense expenditures now?
LIND: Well, the defense expenditures in World War II were half of GDP. Right now, since the Bush administration, we have raised our defense expenditures as a share of GDP to the average during the Cold War, apart from the spikes in the Korean War and the Vietnam War. This is a period when despite the al Qaeda threat and the jihadist threat, we face no imminent great power threats, and nevertheless we're spending money at Cold War levels, largely for a conventional military that is irrelevant when it comes to fighting terrorism.
PILGRIM: Your other premise is very interesting to this broadcast, and it's on illegal immigration. And let me read that. And it's about the disruptive elements in a state. "An anarchic state cannot govern its own territory and exports chaos to other countries. American security costs would be high in a world disrupted by terrorism, crime, policy, piracy, uncontrolled immigration, cross- border epidemics and pollution, and other consequences of anarchy."
Don't we all really have a lot of these conditions already?
LIND: Well, as I say in "The American Way of Strategy," traditionally we face two kinds of dangers beyond our borders. One is empire, in the form of imperial and Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. In the early 21st century, the major threat beyond our borders comes from anarchy, from failed states, from uncontrolled transnational flows, whether of criminals or terrorists...
PILGRIM: Immigration.
LIND: ... or of economic immigrants. Unfortunately, it's impossible to create a force field that will keep out jihadists and/or criminals and admit economic migrants.
The first and most fundamental duty of the U.S. government is to protect its territory. And we did that in the Cold War by protecting us from invasion and from assault by missiles. Today, we have to protect it from infiltration of individuals, and that's a very challenging task, as you've documented on this program.
PILGRIM: Let me just -- we have just a minute left, but I wanted to bring this out because it's very key. It's about President Bush's 2005 inaugural address, and it says -- "The declaration of a global crusade for democracy on behalf of the United States, rhetorical or serious, represents a radical and unwise departure from the historic American way of strategy."
So you're basically saying that 2005 inaugural address just took a turn for the worse. Why do you believe that?
LIND: Woodrow Wilson said, "we must make the world safe for democracy." We did not say we must make the world democratic. Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and other presidents understood that you wanted to create the conditions in which liberal civilian democracies could flourish, the most important of which is international peace. But also within societies, the rule of law and a strong middle class.
The U.S. can help create the conditions for a democratic world, but we cannot create a world of democracies. That has to come one country at a time, bit by bit, largely as a result of efforts within those countries that we can encourage but we can't impose.
PILGRIM: Michael Lind, a very interesting book. "The American Way of Strategy." Thanks for being with us.
LIND: Thank you.
PILGRIM: And join us this Wednesday for a LOU DOBBS TONIGHT special report, "War on the Middle Class." Lou will be reporting live from Kansas City, Missouri. That's this Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. Eastern, here on CNN.
And Lou's new book, "War on the Middle Class," is currently available in bookstores and online.
Well, still ahead, the results of tonight's poll and some more of your thoughts. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Now the results of tonight's poll: 90 percent of you say the population explosion in the United States is hurting the standard of living for America's beleaguered middle class.
Time now for more of your thoughts.
Mark in Texas: "In asking if our borders are secure, do you mean they're securely closed or securely open? The Bush administration and Congress have certainly done all they can to keep our nation's ports and borders securely open, for anyone from anywhere to walk right in."
And John in New York writes: "Port security is one big joke. What we need is less profile, less photo ops, and more substance."
And Cherise in Texas writes: "I think that any politician caught taking bribes and engaged in illegal activity ought to get a minimum of 10 years in jail, as well as a minimum of $250,000 fine -- no pardons, no parole. It's time to close K Street."
And Andy in Indiana writes: "When are the people in this country going to get upset about what is happening to us? Every day, big business and politicians deliver us another blow and we just take it. Of the people, for the people and by the people, not by buy the people."
Do send us your thoughts at loudobbs.com. And each of you whose email is read here will receive a copy of Lou's book, "War on the Middle Class."
Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us tomorrow. For all of us here, good night from New York. "THE SITUATION ROOM" starts right now with Wolf Blitzer -- Wolf.
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