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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Latest Exit Polls; Democrats Confident of Winning Control of House of Representatives; E-Voting Problems Seen in Many Parts of U.S.
Aired November 07, 2006 - 17:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to our special coverage of one of the tightest congressional rages in years. Certainly the most expensive.
The first polling places are just about to close. We will have the very latest for you from the first exit poll projections within the hour.
We'll also have live reports from the key races all across the country.
The latest on e-voting problems. They have materialized, as we feared, but they also may be entirely manageable.
And we'll be hearing from some of the very best political analysts anywhere.
All of that and a great deal more straight ahead here tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is a special edition of LOU DOBBS TONIGHT, "America Votes 2006," live from CNN's election headquarters in New York.
Here now, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening, everybody.
Voters tonight are casting ballots in an election that could have a tremendous influence on the future direction of the country. The results could, in fact, change the conduct of the war in Iraq and determine the fate of President Bush's second term agenda. But this election is unlikely to stop the war on our middle class, to end our illegal immigration and border security crisis, or prevent corporate America from trying to influence our government.
In a moment, we will have the live reports from Washington and expert analysis from three of the very brightest political analysts in the country.
But first, the initial exit poll results are now available just within the past hour. We can give you early estimates of who voted in this election and we can give you considerable analysis of why.
Bill Schneider is here to do exactly that.
With the very latest on these estimates, Bill Schneider.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Lou, you call them initial results. Keep in mind people are still voting around the country, and we are still taking polls of voters around the country. The West Coast, for instance, polls will be open for many hours. But we're going to show you the results among people who were interviewed so far.
What were the issues that determined how people vote? Was this a national election or a local election? We asked people which was more important to them, and the answer was, by nearly two to one, people said they were voting in this election on national issues, 62 percent. Local issues, 33 percent.
Now, does this mean the Democrats are bound to do well? Democrats were hoping that it would be a referendum on Iraq, but there were other issues, like the war on terror.
Republicans talked about taxes. How about that economy? How did the voters polled so far feel the economy is going in this country? Did they say economic conditions are excellent or good? Forty-seven percent said that. Not so good or poor, 52.
It appears that voters are not very bullish on the economy even though the Republicans and the White House were talking it up. They are divided. So it doesn't look like the economy was a determinative issue in this election.
But here's something that wasn't even close to 50-50. That is, how do people feel about Congress? And the answer was, overwhelmingly 62 percent said they disapproved of the way Congress is handling its job. Only 36 percent approved. That could be a very powerful mandate for change, at least a indicator, Lou, of broken government.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you very much.
Bill Schneider.
And bill throughout the evening here will be giving us his analysis of these exit polls and the results as the -- as they continue to flow from the polling booths all across the country.
Bill, thank you very much.
Democrats tonight are hopeful that they can win control of the House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade. They are less sure about their prospects in the battle for the Senate.
Our congressional correspondent, Dana Bash, has the report now from Washington -- Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi came to the Capitol, here to the Capitol today, and our producer, Ted Barrett, bumped into her. She was looking downright giddy. He jokingly said, "How are you, Madam Speaker?" And she replied, "I like the title," but then quickly caught herself and said, "Not yet."
Now, but in public, you certainly hear some caution from Nancy Pelosi. In private, however, we understand that she and her staff were already talking about whether or not they should move their suite of offices to the much larger ones now occupied by the current House speaker, Dennis Hastert.
Now, there was not a lot of caution at all earlier today at a briefing by the House and Senate Democratic chairman of the campaign committees, talking about the fact that they are very optimistic, bubbling with optimism, as a matter of fact, about the fact that Democratic turnout, they say, is up. And one even said that this will be an historic midterm election.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Lou, Republicans are also saying that they have a slight, maybe a five percent advantage in turnout from their side over 2004. But talk to the senior Republicans on the Hill and elsewhere, they simply are resigned, even depressed about what they are going to potentially encounter tonight.
I talked to one senior Republican aide here on the Hill earlier today who said, "I feel like I did in ninth grade, going in for a chemistry test I knew that I didn't study for." He said that "I'm going to fail and there is nothing I can do about it" -- Lou.
DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much.
Well, nonetheless, the White House tonight is putting on a show of confidence that the Republican Party will retain control of both the Senate and the House. GOP strategists predicting that a big turnout of Republican supporters would deny the Democrats victory.
Suzanne Malveaux reports now from the White House -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, we saw President Bush and the first lady earlier today in Crawford, Texas. That's where they cast their ballots. And then the president made a brief remark to all Americans, decidedly nonpartisan, saying that everybody should go out and vote and do their civic duty.
But make no question about it. Bush administration officials realize the number one issue for voters is the Iraq war, that this very well could be a referendum on the president to the Iraq war, and either losing the House or the Senate would weaken the president's ability to get things done in the next two years.
Now, some White House officials, however -- insiders say there is certainly no talk about that possibility. Not here in this building. They feel that any hint of doubt would affect voter turnout.
They say that they cannot concede. And another White House insider I spoke to who says it's going to be a bad day for the Republican Party, simply said that Karl Rove and company are very encouraged with what they are seeing, an increased voter turnout of Republicans in rural areas in key states -- Lou.
DOBBS: Suzanne, thank you.
Suzanne Malveaux from the White House.
Apart, of course, from the outcome of this election, the biggest question tonight is whether or not your vote will actually count. Election officials all across the country have been reporting problems with e-voting machines.
Kitty Pilgrim has the latest for us -- Kitty.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, voter activists have been monitoring it all day, and Common Cause say 15 percent of their hotline calls were about mechanical problems with electronic voting machines. Voter Action says they are drowning in reports and Verified Voting says the system was clearly very complex for volunteers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM (voice-over): In Denver lines were hours long. The electronic poll books with voter registrations were not ready.
In Indiana, paper ballots had to be used in more than 100 precincts because the touch screens on electronic voting machines were not working.
DORIS ANNE SADLER, MARION COUNTY, INDIANA CLERK: Two hundred and twenty-two locations that we had to send technicians to, to get the machine up and running.
PILGRIM: In New Jersey, the Sequoia machines had printer or mechanical problems. Polling locations issued paper ballots and had voting machines replaced.
Broward County, Florida, a 90-minute delay because of activation mess-ups.
STEVE GONOT, DEERFIELD BEACH, FLORIDA: A number of people that were sent away and told to come back, I hope that they have the perseverance and come back and get their votes cast.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: These, of course, are observable problems with the machines. Now, none of this actually shows how the votes are tallied at the end of the day. And we might see some additional problems as that process continues -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.
Kitty Pilgrim.
Joining me now, I'm joined by three political analysts who have credentials beyond compare. We're joined by Ed Rollins. He's the Republican strategist, former White House political director. Errol Lewis, columnist for "New York Daily News". And Robert Zimmerman, Democratic strategist and fund-raiser.
Let me turn to you first, Errol.
These early exit polls suggesting there is a relatively strong turnout and a strong reaction in some cases on issues that weren't anticipated. Particularly corruption.
ERROL LOUIS, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Well, that's right. The earlier segment that talked about where everybody said their concerns were was sort of the reverse of what we have been hearing for weeks. And I think what that means is that, when people are listening to these ads that tens of millions of dollars are being invested in, when people are watching all of these news reports, they are taking their own message from it. And in many individual races, corruption was the main issue.
DOBBS: Ed, we've heard the White House very confident. Suzanne Malveaux reporting that the president, Laura Bush very confident. We are hearing that Nancy Pelosi is almost giddy in anticipation of the results here.
What do you make of it?
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I think there has been a tremendous turnout today. And I think both sides have turned out their own vote. But the critical thing is, are the Independents turning out?
If the Independents are turning out, we're going to lose Republicans big time because they're going to break against us 2-1. And I feel that they probably are, and I think they are the ones that are most concerned probably about the corruption.
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It's a very important point Ed is bringing up. In 2004, the Republicans ran Bush's re- election by trying to build the Republican base and focusing only on their base at the expense of the Independents.
Democrats have targeted Independents very aggressively. And, in fact, they are expanding their base by gaining more of that Independent vote.
DOBBS: OK.
We'll be back with these gentlemen throughout the broadcast here.
We appreciate it.
Coming up next, we'll have more from our political panel, and Bill Schneider will also be here. He'll have the latest exit poll information for us and his analysis. We will also have live reports from key Senate and House races all across the country, a great deal more. It's the beginning of a very exciting night.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Welcome back to our special election night coverage.
Political scandal, voter frustration drawing voters to the polls. Within the hour, we will see the first results in this election, where the party controlling the Senate could change or not.
Ed Henry reports from Virginia tonight, where there has been record voter turnout for the Senate race. Charges of racism and immorality being charged and countercharged in that race.
Bob Franken reporting tonight from Ohio, where frustrated voters are looking for a senator who will fight for American workers.
And Jonathan Freed reporting tonight from Missouri, one of the tightest Senate races in the nation.
We begin with Ed Henry in Richmond, Virginia -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, I'm here at the campaign headquarters of Republican senator George Allen. As you know, he had dreams just a few months ago of running for president in 2008. Now his back is against the wall on a collision course with Democratic challenger Jim Webb.
A very tight race. As you mentioned, turnout very high.
The absentee ballots alone, there were 44,000 last time there was a midterm election in 2002. This time we're told 131,000 absentee ballots were requested this time around.
The Allen team is hoping that that high turnout is because conservatives are turning out to vote for him and to vote for a state- level ban on same-sex marriage. The Democrat, Jim Webb, hoping it's just the opposite, that people are turning out on Iraq, an issue that Webb has been demanding a new course for the war. And also, turning against Allen, who had a lot of miscues, such as that infamous "Macaca" moment.
The polls will be closing at 7:00, but we may not have an early answer. This is a race that could go late into the night.
One thing is certain. While we don't know what's happening in the Senate race just yet, it's clear that Senator Allen's hopes of running for president are really on hold now clearly -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much.
Ed Henry. Ohio, a state tarred by political scandal and economy challenged on all fronts. In Cuyahoga County, polling locations, the Ohio Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit to keep those polls open late to ensure ballot security and to make certain that ballots are accurately counted. The Ohio Democrats citing numerous problem with those e- voting machines early in the day.
Bob Franken is in Columbus, Ohio, and joins us now -- Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There have been a series of problems over the last several elections in Cuyahoga County, which is Cleveland. But let's put this in another context.
The Cleveland area is the Democratic stronghold. And so the Democratic Party would like to maximize the turnout there. It has been low, as it traditionally is during the day. The large bulk of the voters there come in after the working hours.
There is a little bit less than an hour and a half. So within the hour, that lawsuit was filed by the Ohio Democratic Party in federal court in northern Ohio.
The Democratic candidate, Sherrod Brown, is looking for every vote he can. He is higher in the polls. That was what the prediction that was made. So he made his vote today in an area just west of Cleveland.
His Republican counterpart in this race, the incumbent senator, Mike DeWine, voted also in the Dayton area. Both have headed to their campaign headquarters now to check out the results.
In a state that has experienced a tremendous intensity and interest because of the variety of scandals and corruption charges and, of course, the interest in the Iraq war, but right now the focus is once again where it should not be in the minds of many, in the Cleveland area and the problems they're having with the voting machines -- Lou.
FRANKEN: Thank you.
Bob Franken reporting from Columbus.
In Missouri, the battle there between Senate incumbent Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill has been one of the nation's tightest races.
Jonathan Freed is in St. Louis tonight and joins us now -- Jonathan.
JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, it has been one of the tightest races, and because of that everybody has been focusing on the turnout here. The big question, would it be as big as predicted? And so far what we are hearing from reports coming in to us from around the state is that, yes, that is the case. That turnout today so far is higher than has been -- has been normal for midterm elections. Both campaigns are trying to spin it their way when we talked to them today, Lou. They are saying that their base is coming out strongly. And, in fact, both candidates say that they had to wait in line at their own polling places today when it came time to vote.
Again, when a race is as tight as this one, every person that you can get to the polls counts. And that stem cell debate that's also going on here is bringing even more people to the polls. So everybody hanging on, waiting to see how one side affects the other and one campaign here affects the other -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much.
Jonathan Freed from St. Louis.
And we will be, obviously, covering the Missouri race very, very carefully. And one suspects throughout the evening here.
Errol, let me turn to you and ask you, we are hearing a lot about heavy turnout from our reporters. And we are getting reports of it across the country.
Who is the beneficiary of that overall on balance, or can you make that judgment?
LOUIS: Well, you can, but to do so you would have to throw in an important factor that hasn't been talked about a lot, which is that there are a lot of governor seats that are up today. There are nine vacant seats that are being vacated by Republicans. One by Democrats.
So you can sort of see that there is going to be a lot more emphasis going in the Democrat direction. We have challengers trying to sort of snatch seats.
A lot of time and effort has been focussed on them. And in a place like Ohio, where there's a bitterly contested race for governor, it's going to spill over into all the other races.
And to the extent that it has been a question about national parties trying to push their agenda, I think you start to see all kinds of new effects, new people coming out who maybe don't care so much about what's going on in Iraq but care a great deal what's going to happen in their state House.
DOBBS: Do you agree?
ROLLINS: I think this is pretty much about the war. This -- I think this campaign has been nationalized.
Traditionally, there's a 30 percent drop-off from presidential elections, which is a record high. Election 2004 -- the highest in '68. I think this will be a record high, and I think it's all about -- I think it's about a nationalized election, and I do think a lot of it is the war and corruption, the way Congress has dealt.
DOBBS: That sounds the way Ed puts it as if the Democrats will be the beneficiary of the -- of the strategy. Rahm Emanuel has to be given a lot of credit for the strategy that he employed -- right?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, I think it was clearly the strategy of the Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, senators Schumer and Reed to nationalize this election and to make a referendum on George Bush. And he certainly played into their hands.
If you...
DOBBS: We want to turn -- because obviously whatever happens tonight will define the balance of power for the remainder of President George W. Bush's presidency.
Let's turn to CNN's senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield.
Jeff, your thoughts.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Well, Lou, you heard about three endangered Republican Senate seats. If Republicans have hopes of retaining the Senate, I want to show you two states very quickly.
One of them is Rhode Island. This should have been a put-away for the Democrats. It's one of the bluest states.
Lincoln Chafee, the incumbent Republican, is the most independent, or least loyal -- depending on your politics -- Republican there is. Broke with the Bush administration on tax cuts, on the war in Iraq. Wrote in the name of George Bush's father in 2004. The one thing he hasn't done is leave his party.
Sheldon Whitehouse was seen to be a favorite. In recent weeks there's been -- in recent days there's been a sense that maybe voters are coming back and admiring Chafee for his independence. Obviously, we'll see how that plays out tonight.
The other race where Republicans have hopes is a Democratic seat -- open Democratic seat in Maryland. One of the bluest of the blue states.
Ben Cardin, the Democrat, a congressman, won a narrow primary against Kweisi Mfume, a former congressman, an African-American. And Cardin is being pushed very hard by Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele.
The theory is, if Steele can pick up 20 percent, 25, 30 percent of the black vote, they can take that seat away from Democrats and deny Democrats control of the Senate. As we have pointed out, we'll let you know as soon as we know.
DOBBS: Exactly. Jeff, thanks very much.
Jeff Greenfield.
Just ahead, we are receiving obviously new exit poll information. We will be bringing you the very latest on that as we receive it. And analysis, of course. And from Wal-Mart to Wachovia, the big spenders in this election come straight from corporate America. We'll have a special report on the best government money can buy and much more as America votes 2006.
We will have live reports from the key House races across the country, and our election coverage will continue here on CNN throughout the night.
Beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Paula Zahn and I will be bringing you the projected winners from all across the country.
Then at 12:00 midnight Eastern, a special edition of "LARRY KING LIVE".
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Our coverage tonight wouldn't be complete without mentioning the biggest driving force in this election: special interests and corporate America. With an estimated $2.6 billion being spent over the course of this campaign and election, this election is expected to be the most expensive midterm race in history.
Lisa Sylvester has our report -- Lisa.
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, to knock out an incumbent and win a House seat now costs a minimum of $1 million. To take over a Senate position, starting cost, $7 million. And guess who is paying for these elections? Big corporate money.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SHEILA KRUMHOLZ, CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS: Business interests provide 75 percent of the money that is given to candidates and parties at the federal level on average. And that's true again this cycle.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SYLVESTER: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $20 million this year just on federal races, $10 million, in fact, in just the final days on calls and mailings. The Business Interests political action committee spent another $3 million. And Wal-Mart tops the list of companies that have donated the most, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. More than $1 million on the federal level and another $1 million for state races.
Of course, big corporate donors are paying, but they also want to see a return on their investment. A few million now translating to friends in high places later, and this year the share of big business money going to Democrats has increased. But they are still running behind Republicans -- Lou.
DOBBS: All right. And it is the story no one wants to report, it seems, across the national media.
Lisa Sylvester, thank you very much.
Of course this broadcast is an exception to that.
Robert Zimmerman, what in the world are we doing when we have reached a point we're spending $2.6 billion on these campaigns? Corporate America funding both political parties. How can we -- this is obscene.
ZIMMERMAN: It is obscene, and it threatens our democracy as profoundly as the e-voting systems threaten our democracy. And until we move in the direction of public financing of campaigns, we are never going to rid the corruption that corporate financing of congressional races always leads to.
DOBBS: Ed Rollins, do you concur or not?
ROLLINS: I'm not for public financing, but I certainly concur. There's a couple of congressional races that will be $5 million to $7 million in this cycle, which used to be a Senate or gubernatorial race in a big state.
It's just -- it's out of hand, it's way too much money. You don't need that kind of money to be spent on these races. And it's overkill.
DOBBS: Errol?
LOUIS: You don't want to minimize the effect of this, but keep in mind the unions have been players in this game, too. The Service Employees International Union -- they're mostly hospital workers, janitors and the like -- they spend about $35 million, according to their e-mails. Contacting their members, pushing people to the polls and so forth.
I think -- and you see that play out in the Democratic plank. If the Democrats should win, one of the things they promise is to change the rules to make it easier for unions to get into the workplace.
DOBBS: Well, let's ask Robert Zimmerman how they sort that out. They get the union money and they get all that corporate money. Is it going to be evenly divvied up here? I mean, how does that work?
ZIMMERMAN: It's not about that. It's about changing the way you finance our congressional campaigns and our presidential campaigns.
(CROSSTALK)
ROLLINS: This race will be -- it will be -- more money will be spent on this midterm election for probably 30 or 40 targeted races than the presidential race in 2004.
LOUIS: And nobody has run a campaign based.
DOBBS: In 2004. ROLLINS: 2004.
LOUIS: Nobody has run a campaign based on getting money out of -- out of elections.
(CROSSTALK)
ZIMMERMAN: ... public financing in 2000. And Lou, you were a strong leader of that -- around that issue as well. And that was important, to make people aware of it.
DOBBS: I mean, we have to come up with an intelligent way in which to conduct these races so that candidates at least are running on issues, on a platform, and an agenda that is focused on the interest of the common good and the national interest. Not on special interests or corporate America, or organized labor.
We will continue in just a moment.
Coming up next, explosive new exit poll information has just come in. Has the president and the Republican Party made a miscalculation in this election?
Bill Schneider will tell us what those exit polls are suggesting.
Also, live reports on some pivotal House races. And reports of frustration caused by those new e-voting machines. They have been pouring in all day. How big is the problem? How well are the jurisdictions around the country managing the problems?
We will have the latest for you.
And also, be sure to stay with CNN for our primetime election coverage. Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Paula Zahn and I reporting live from New York beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern here tonight.
And there will be special election coverage on "LARRY KING LIVE" tonight from Los Angeles beginning at midnight Eastern.
And I'll be right back.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Exit information -- exit poll information is pouring in and over the last few minutes, new information from those exit polls.
Bill Schneider has the very latest for us -- Bill.
SCHNEIDER: Lou, the economy was supposed to be the issue that paid off for the White House. Republicans were running hard on the good economy. The stock market is booming, gas prices are dropping.
But guess what? When we asked voters, was the economy a very important issue in the way you voted, among those interviewed, at least so far around the country, those who said economy extremely important, were voting by over 20 points for the Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives. It looks like the economy turned out to be a Democratic, not a Republican, issue.
Terrorism. What about people who said terrorism was extremely important? A very important issue for Republicans in '02 and '04. How did it do this time?
Well, the majority of voters who cited terrorism did vote Republican. But notice how close it is: 53 percent voted Republican, 45 percent Democrats. Democrats are becoming more competitive on the terrorism issue.
And finally, an issue of great concern to viewers of this program: illegal immigration. People who said that was a very important issue, how did they vote?
The answer is they split: 51 percent Republican, 46 percent Democratic. A very close split on the illegal immigration issue. Neither party is particularly preferred.
DOBBS: OK. On a host of issues apparently, Bill Schneider. Thank you very much.
One name is having a major impact in two House races tonight. In Florida's 14th District, Mark Foley's name is on the ballot. The current GOP candidate is not. And in western New York, a senior Republican is tainted by the Foley scandal.
John Zarrella is in Florida on the race for Mark Foley's vacated House seat. Mary Snow is in western New York, where fallout from the Foley scandal has been dogging Congressman Tom Reynolds' campaign.
We begin with John Zarrella in Jupiter, Florida -- John.
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, we are at the Jupiter Beach Resort, where Tim Foley (ph), the Democratic candidate in the 16th Congressional District, is hoping to be here a little later to celebrate a victory.
It won't be easy. It's going to be hard fought. The Republican candidate, Joe Negron, handpicked by the party to replace Mr. Foley, has made strong strides in the last weeks, catching up, closing the gap.
And Tim Foley said all along that he expected that. This, after all, has been -- Tim Mahoney has said all along this has been a Republican seat for a quarter of a century. He didn't expect anything less than a tight race. And that's apparently what we've got here tonight. Neck and neck as the polls close here in 25 minutes.
Now, when people went to the polls here in Palm Beach County, what they saw on ballot was Mark Foley's name right there at the top. Republicans say they believe that the electorate -- the voters are smart enough to know that a vote for Foley is actually a vote for Negron.
In fact, the Republicans kind of made a joke out of it, saying, punch Foley for Negron, hoping that of course the Republicans will figure it out and will go to the polls and vote for Joe Negron.
But again, Lou, this is going to be close, very close. And again, the polls closing here in about 25 minutes -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, thank you very much. John Zarrella. He'll be with us throughout the evening here.
Tonight, the fallout from the Mark Foley scandal still surrounds the House Republican leadership, Congressman Tom Reynolds admitting that he had been told about Foley's inappropriate e-mails long before they were made public. He subsequently apologized to his constituents for not doing more, but that may not have been enough.
Mary Snow now live at the Erie County Republican headquarters in Buffalo, New York -- Mary.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Lou, some voters we spoke with said they are not ready yet to be so forgiving. This is a very tight race. And some here are bracing for what could be a very long night.
Here in Erie County, the biggest in this district, also home to both candidates. Voter turnout, according to the Board of Elections, is said to be moderate to heavy, and that is encouraging to both camps.
However, voters we spoke with today say the Reynolds handling of the Foley matter was a big part in their decision making. Even supporters of Reynolds who say they voted for him expressed that they were troubled by how he handled it.
Reynolds in the past three days has launched an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive in his district. This, against his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, an independent businessman who pumped over $2 million of his own money into this campaign. Just recently, he pledged not to take a salary if he is elected, saying he would take a token $1 salary each year.
Now, these two candidates ran against each other two years ago, and Davis lost by 12 points. But tonight both camps are hesitant to make any kind of predictions -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much. Mary Snow from Buffalo, New York.
Joining us once again, our senior political analyst, Jeff Greenfield with more for us on the battle for control of the House -- Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK, Lou, a quick primer. This is the old house, as Rosemary Clooney once sang. 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, one independent who votes with the Democrats. You need a shift of 15 seats.
Here is what's driving the Republicans to a certain sense of pessimism. In state after state, many House Republicans are in danger. New York and Pennsylvania with their gubernatorial candidates in pre-election polls have run far behind. As many as eight or nine Republicans could lose their House seats there.
In Ohio, where the Republican party's been mired in scandal, four or five House Republicans in danger. But they're also in trouble in seats in Indiana, in Kentucky, two in Florida.
And even out West -- which in presidential years the interior west has voted solidly red -- you see Republican incumbents in trouble in Arizona, in Colorado, in Idaho.
President Bush was campaigning in Kansas for Congressman and former four-minute-miler Jim Ryun. That seat should have been utterly safe. And across the country, at best, Republicans can point to three or four Democratic incumbents they might be able to beat.
That, in a nutshell, is why so many people believe that the House is going to turn Democratic before the night is over -- Lou.
GREENFIELD: Jeff, thank you very much. Jeff Greenfield.
Returning to our panel here, is it your sense that we can make -- draw some pretty strong conclusions from the fact the president, as Jeff Greenfield said, had to campaign in places like Kansas, which you would think would be a relatively safe state, given history.
ZIMMERMAN: I think there are two issues here at work. One, you're seeing a wide, diverse collection of Democrats running around the country, competitive in Idaho, Colorado, Nevada, in different regions. And they're running as mainstream Democrats. They're running -- and showing much greater diversity than the past.
The other point, though, is -- that's so critical is that when George Bush shows up in a competitive state like in Florida, the Republican candidate for governor disappears.
DOBBS: Right -- Ed.
ROLLINS: We thought we were election-proof because of reapportionment. And obviously, this election is proving we're not. Tom Reynolds, a very fine man, the head of a Congressional committee, was a very prominent speaker -- candidate for Speaker, to replace Denny Hastert. And obviously, he's fighting for his life.
DOBBS: Errol, the idea that Tom Reynolds is in trouble, Jack Davis taking him on in Buffalo on the issues, basic economic issues, irrespective of what some of these exit polls are saying, and doing so well.
The implications to you?
LOUIS: Absolutely. Upstate New York is a disaster economically. It's been one of the main focuses of all the other state-wide races that are going in.
And, even though it may not show up in the polls in this nationalized climate, the reality is western New York, Buffalo has been in trouble for a long, long time. There has been tens of thousands of layoffs, mostly upstate New York this year alone.
DOBBS: And that race between Reynolds and Davis is one of those that has moved back and forth. The most recent polls, I believe, showing just about a four-point advantage back again with Reynolds. But it is one of the tight ones that we're going to be watching here throughout the evening.
ROLLINS: And Davis isn't a very good candidate. The best thing that's happened for Reynolds is Davis is not a very good candidate. He may pull out.
ZIMMERMAN: Just make a quick point. I think what really hurt Reynolds was not just that he knew about the Foley scandal, but after he knew about it, he encouraged Foley to run again.
DOBBS: Just ahead, we'll have the first rejections on election results here in just a few moments. And I'll be back with our distinguished panel of strategists, journalists, editorial board members, and folks who really know.
And I'll be talking with an e-voting activist who can update us on what state leaders are saying about e-voting nationwide.
And this campaign season has been convulsed by controversy and scandal from Foley to Kerry to Haggard. We'll take a look back. Just a little ways back.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: We have just received this word from Ohio. Our correspondent Bob Franken reporting that a federal district court judge there is right now writing an order to insist that the polls in 16 precincts in Cuyahoga County, where there have been large numbers of e-voting machine problems, that those polls remain open until at least 10:00 p.m. tonight.
Again, 16 precincts in the Cuyahoga County -- that is the Cleveland area in Ohio, where -- which has been beset by problems -- but 16 precincts will be, by federal order, keeping their polls open until 10:00 tonight.
New reports keep coming in about problems not all over the country but certainly in those states on the East Coast in which we have got considerable focus.
With the very latest for us, I'm joined by Warren Stewart. He is a -- Vote Trust USA, it's a group that is fielding tonight and today a barrage of complaints. Warren, this decision in Cuyahoga County by the federal judge directly related to those e-voting troubles that we have all been fearing.
WARREN STEWART, VOTETRUSTUSA: Exactly. We have been having reports all day long from states across the country, where machines have failed to boot up at the beginning of the day, or have stopped working for one reason or the other.
It's resulted in long lines.
We have reports like that from, well, of course, Ohio, Indiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, New Jersey. I could go on and on.
DOBBS: Right.
STEWART: So we have had those sort of problems, and we anticipate more of those.
We also had problems reported of vote switching on machines, where either on the screen, on the touch screen where the voter is actually voting, they vote for one candidate and it shows up for the other one, or on the review screen, they are seeing a candidate that they didn't vote for.
And that is happening in a lot of counties in Florida, and also in Texas. And we have seen that in Kentucky as well.
So those are all big concerns, but I think in some ways, the worst is yet to come, because at the end of the day, when they are merging all these totals together in the central tabulators, I think we are going to have a lot of -- it's going to be a long night.
DOBBS: A long night. It is -- but at this point, are you encouraged at all that we have not had more problems reported in?
STEWART: Oh, good heavens, no. I would say there's -- I mean, there have been so many calls to the various hotlines that have been set up. And news reports as well. And we have to assume that that's just a fraction of the actual instances that are taking place.
DOBBS: Warren, I was trying to look for some good news at all in those early reports on these breakdowns in e-voting machines in particular. Warren Stewart, of Vote Trust USA, you will be with us throughout the evening. We appreciate it.
Now let's turn back to the panel. Errol, Warren is saying that he sees greater problems ahead. How much of an implication do you think this will likely have on this election?
LOUIS: Oh, it will certainly delay the final outcome. And if the outcome for the control of the House is at all close, we could be looking at this for days, hopefully not weeks.
One of the things that goes on here is that there was a push to put in all of these new machines without any real sort of standards. I mean, the testing, the recent "Hacking Democracy," the documentary that pointed out all of these problems.
I mean, the punch line at the end was that $20 million was going to be spent in Ohio on technologies that that show proved was not reliable. And here we are in Ohio wondering about the vote.
DOBBS: Well...
ROLLINS: The other thing that is going to be -- if these are close elections, and I assume there are going to be, there is a tremendous number of absentee ballots that still have to be counted. And that could go on for days.
And I think anything that creates an image that people's votes may not be counted or counted fairly is going to put a darkness over this election.
DOBBS: Very quickly, Robert.
ZIMMERMAN: Let's call it what it is: A political scandal. The e-voting system, the way absentee ballots are being mishandled, being rejected for lack of postage, and for that matter, the way voter I.D. cards are being used -- and in fact, in some cases being misused to block people from voting.
DOBBS: OK. Robert Zimmerman, thank you very much.
This midterm campaign has been like no other. Mudslinging, celebrity pitches, personal attacks, moral misbehavior, scandal and a lot more. Christine Romans reports on all of that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It began with what is now known as the macaca moment, and quickly devolved.
SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (R), VIRGINIA: Let's give a welcome to macaca here. Welcome to America.
ROMANS: From a racially insensitive remark to lurid instant messages. Congressman Mark Foley coming on to teenage boys, coming out of the closet, and rushing right into rehab.
DAVID ROTH, ATTORNEY FOR MARK FOLEY: He has never had sexual contact with a minor. Between the ages of 13 and 15, he was molested by a clergyman. Mark Foley wants you to know that he's a gay man.
ROMANS: Next comes a celebrity slugfest over stem cell research.
MICHAEL J. FOX, ACTOR: What you do in Missouri matters to millions of Americans. Americans like me.
RUSH LIMBAUGH, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: This is really shameless of Michael J. Fox. Either he didn't take his medication, or he is acting. One of the two.
ROMANS: And then along comes what Senator John Kerry describes as a joke gone bad. Telling students if you don't study ...
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: You get stuck in Iraq.
ROMANS: An apparent indictment of the intelligence of U.S. troops. Democrats cringed, and the White House demanded an apology.
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is an absolute insult.
ROMANS: Kerry called him a stuffed suit, and Rush Limbaugh doughy.
KERRY: I apologize to no one for my criticism of the president and of his broken policy.
ROMANS: A day later, Kerry did apologize. For a moment there, watching these two going at it almost felt like 2004.
But then came Pastor Ted, an evangelical adviser to the White House, clumsily answering allegations he frequented a gay prostitute and used drugs.
TED HAGGARD: I called him to buy some meth, but I threw it away. I went there for a massage.
ROMANS: Finally admitting in a letter to his congregation...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The fact is, I am guilty of sexual immorality. I am a deceiver and a liar.
ROMANS: An American evangelical leader disgraced.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Christine Romans with this -- the sorry side of this whole election and campaign.
I want to turn for final thoughts to our panel here tonight. Errol Louis.
LOUIS: The outcome of this will be the first step towards the 2008 presidential elections. That's where all of the energy is going to go the day after this is finished, possibly as early as tomorrow morning.
ROLLINS: I hope it's clean. I hope whoever wins, wins it, and there's not any long-term disputes here.
ZIMMERMAN: This election ultimately is about a very dramatic change in the direction of the country, and it also reflects a dramatic change in the Democratic Party because of the number of states Democrats are competitive in.
DOBBS: Now, the idea that this is the beginning of 2008 is not exactly living in the moment, Errol. You want to... LOUIS: Well -- here in New York, where we have a certain senator, whose last name you may recognize -- Clinton -- who has spent more than anybody else running for her office today, there's some thought that this is step one towards 2008.
ROLLINS: She's the closest thing to an incumbent. There is no incumbent -- or no vice president. She is the closest thing to it.
DOBBS: And is she your party's first choice?
ZIMMERMAN: We have a number of very strong candidates for the Democratic nomination. If she chooses to run, she will be among them.
DOBBS: A little sorting out. No matter what...
(CROSSTALK)
ROLLINS: There's a couple of other New Yorkers that may have an interest in it, too. I don't consider the governor one of them, but...
DOBBS: A lot of sorting out for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party...
ROLLINS: Yes, absolutely.
DOBBS: ... on that one.
We will be focusing on this election throughout the night here. CNN's America Votes 2006 election coverage continues here in just a moment. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Welcome to our coverage, "America Votes 2006." We are going to be going to our -- we will have the results here in about seven minutes and 47 seconds, according to our countdown clock. We are going to have complete reports of every race in the country, analysis by the very best folks in the business.
And we are going to start out with one of the very best folks, Wolf Blitzer.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Lou, thank you very much. And in just a few minutes, the polls will close in four states and we will begin to find out what you have decided today. Do Democrats win back part or all of the United States Congress? Whose political stars will rise? Whose will fall? How much did Iraq or the war on terror or the economy or scandal drive this election? These are some of the questions we will be answering tonight.
Let's bring it over to our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. There are four specific questions that you are looking at, at the start of what could be a long night.
GREENFIELD: You bet you. And this is what they are. The first question, a flood or a trickle? Indiana and Kentucky have five endangered House Republicans. There are two Democrats in Georgia who have been targeted by the Republicans for possible defeat. If the Republicans can hold many or most of those seats, maybe this is not a flood. If they lose most or all of them, they are in real trouble.
The second question, an Ohio disaster. Ohio closes at 7:30. It's a state where the Republicans have been mired in scandal. The Republican candidate for governor is running far behind. There are four, perhaps even five House Republican seats that could be lost. And between that, Indiana, and Kentucky, the Democrats will be two- thirds of where they need to get to get control of the House.
Here's the third question -- as Virginia goes, so goes the Senate. Virginia has that race between George Allen, once considered a shoo-in and Jim Webb. If the Democrats hope to retake the Senate with the six seats net they need, they have to take Virginia.
And the fourth question we will have to wait until the end of the night to wait to answer. What about presidential coattails? Bush campaigned in Georgia for the two Republicans challenging the Democrats. He went into other districts in this region. If, in fact, the president has political clout, we should see this in those states.
And one more quick mention about Ohio. This is where the voter turnout machine of the Republicans delivered Ohio, and therefore, a second term to George Bush. It is an Ohio turnout versus a mood in Ohio that seems to run against Republicans -- Wolf.
BLITZER: An early indicator as we continue to watch what's going on. This is only just beginning. I want to bring in Anderson Cooper.
He has got the best political team on television with him -- Anderson.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, we want to talk to some of our reporters both here in the studio and also in the field to find out exactly what their thoughts are, what they are going to be looking at over the next 15, 20 minutes or so as some of these polls are closing.
John King.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The earliest thing for me is the Republican incumbents in Kentucky and Indiana. If Republicans are losing in places like that they are in for a very long night. They should be able to hold the seats in a good year. We know this is not a good year. Five or six of them in Kentucky and Indiana, that's a good early sign of how the night's going to go for the Republicans.
COOPER: Candy Crowley.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I think I'll look for something, you know, that takes us forward and that is how did Democrats do in the rural vote? How do they do in some of these southern states? The south has been blocked off to Democrats in the presidential campaigns for a very long time. Are they going to make some inroads into those very red states in and are those inroads -- do they show signs of any kind of permanence?
COOPER: Also joining us tonight from "Newsweek" magazine, Marcus Mabry. Good to have you here. What will you be looking for in?
MARCUS MABRY, "NEWSWEEK": Good to be here, Anderson, thanks.
I am going to be looking to see what happens with the women's vote. I'm going to be looking to see how many women turn out, how women support Republicans. You may have noticed some of the places -- some polls in the last few days in this campaign have shown a tightening with the Republicans still behind the Democrats as far as who voters are likely to vote for tonight.
But what we have seen is some other polls have a larger gap. The ones that show the Republicans catching up to the Democrats, those polls inevitably have to do with women turning towards Republican candidates at the last moment. The question is, we'll see from who women vote for tonight whether or not Democrats can close the deal or not.
COOPER: We are about four minutes away from polls closing. I want to talk to some of the best political minds of the country who we assembled here tonight.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: James Carville, what are you looking for?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: You know, it comes in fast and furious. And, I mean, I'm just going to be watching CNN. I'll be watching the monitor on the bottom and I'll be calling campaign managers and political professionals around the country to see what they are seeing.
I'm going to be talking to people at the Republican National Committee, people at the Democratic DCC to see if I can do some actual reporting as to what they are seeing on the ground.
COOPER: Paul Begala, what races are you watching very closely?
PAUL BEGALA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I have a stake in Pennsylvania. I have one campaign I'm working for as a consultant, and that's my friend Bob Casey who's running against Rick Santorum in a marquis Senate race.
But I'm also intrigued at the Bush coattail effects that Jeff Greenfield was talking about before. Does he have coattails or is he like an anchor? You know, the most stunning thing of the last week of the election was the Republican candidate for Florida, Charlie Crist, ducked President Bush even though Bush went to do the event for Charlie. But he cut and run from the president. That tells you that, you know, Republicans are worried about Bush.
COOPER: Paul Begala working in the cut and run mention. J.C. Watts, what are you watching in.
J.C. WATTS (R), FORMER CONGRESSMAN: Maryland. Michael Steele, I think, and Republicans have a real chance there. And then as you all have said, I think, Indiana, Kentucky, the polls close early there. We will get some kind of feel for how this thing might trend over the next two or three hours.
COOPER: About three minutes, the polls closing -- Bill Bennett.
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Right, Paul, an advocate to the very end. The polls are still open, and Paul is...
COOPER: I like how you guys coordinated with your red ties.
BENNETT: You bet. We know. Indiana, Kentucky early on. It's the trickle then there's a flood, but those two states will tell us a lot, those congressional races. I'm watching Maryland. That's my home state, rooting hard for Michael Steele.
COOPER: A fascinating race, we're going to have a lot of races to talk to. Let's go back to Wolf Blitzer -- actually, let's go to Lou Dobbs right now -- Lou.
DOBBS: Not all the campaigning going on outside this studio. We are going to be turning to our correspondents covering a very tight race, first of all. From Columbus, we're going to go to Bob Franken. Ed Henry will be reporting from Richmond, Virginia. Dana Bash on Capitol Hill to give us some sense.
Let's turn first to Bob Franken at Mike DeWine's headquarters, the Republican incumbent senator in that tight race with Sherrod Brown.
FRANKEN: A slight complication in Ohio. A federal judge is about to rule that 16 voting places in Cuyahoga County, that's Cleveland, stay open an extra hour-and-a-half which will make in that 9:00 Eastern. Both sides are reporting heavy turnout which is what the prediction had been in a state that has very high feelings in the state that unless there is an upset is going to be bad news for Republicans -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Bob Franken.
Let's turn to Ed Henry who is at Senator George Allen's headquarters in that race was James Webb.
HENRY: That's right. I'm in Richmond and we are hearing from both camps turnout was very, very high, almost in presidential election year levels, not what they normally see in midterm elections.
What the Republican incumbent, George Allen, is hoping is that that is mostly on the gay marriage issue that's on the state ballot here, Lou.
DOBBS: And turning to you quickly, Dana Bash, at Democratic headquarters in Washington, D.C.
BASH: Well, let me tell you, Lou, that really all I have to do is show you where I am to show you the difference between the feeling and the atmospherics in Democratic world versus Republican world. This is a place where Democrats think they are going to have a party here at a hotel just near Capitol -- just near the Capitol, on Capitol Hill.
The Republicans are having nothing like this. They are sort of spread out in their home districts with some friends watching returns privately. Democrats are going to be very public here because they think they are going to have a celebration later.
DOBBS: Thank you. Wolf, back to you.
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