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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Huckabee and Immigration; Pakistan Turmoil; Record Ad Costs
Aired December 28, 2007 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thanks, Wolf.
Tonight, startling new details of the cause of Benazir Bhutto's death, the Pakistani government blames al Qaeda; the Bush administration struggles to stop the crisis from escalating. We'll have all that and all the day's news, much more straight ahead tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Friday, December 28. Live from New York, sitting in for Lou Dobbs, Kitty Pilgrim.
PILGRIM: Good evening, everybody.
Confusion tonight over the cause of Benazir Bhutto's death during a gun and bomb attack on her convoy; the Pakistani government says Bhutto smashed her head on the vehicle's sunroof. Her supporters say that's a pack of lies. Bhutto's political party is also disputing the government's assertion that al Qaeda was behind the attack. Nic Robertson has our report -- Nic.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, the issue of who killed Benazir Bhutto and why is becoming incredibly politically and emotionally charged right now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON (voice-over): In the chaos of the attack, clues to Benazir Bhutto's assassin, a hand visible on this videotape squeezing off three rounds immediately before the bomb blast. Pakistani government officials say they have evidence radical Islamists with ties to al Qaeda were behind the plot.
JAVED IQBAL CHEEMA, PAKISTANI INTERIOR MINISTRY: We have intelligence interception indicating that al Qaeda leader Baitullah Mehsud (ph) is behind her assassination.
ROBERTSON: Congratulations to you, were they ours? Baitullah Mehsud (ph) is said to ask. The response, yes, it was us. But Bhutto's party officials blame the government of President Pervez Musharraf.
WAJID HASAN, BHUTTO SPOKESMAN: There were key members of General Musharraf's government. She informed them that in case she is killed on her return that they be held responsible for her murder.
ROBERTSON: And each claim and counterclaim is emotionally and politically charged. Perhaps the most damning accusation came from Bhutto before her death in an e-mail to a friend; she named officials in the military-backed government she said would be responsible if she were killed. Why would Bhutto make such a claim?
She had plenty of enemies. This year she vowed to crack down on radical Islamists. In the past two weeks, bin Laden's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said Bhutto was a U.S. (INAUDIBLE) in Pakistan, an indication if she was not already an al Qaeda target, she soon would be, but for Bhutto and her party, President Musharraf's government seemed to present a greater danger.
(SOUNDS)
ROBERTSON: Following the deadly double suicide attack on her return from exile (INAUDIBLE) Bhutto said Pakistan's government was not doing enough.
BENAZIR BHUTTO, FMR. PRIME MINISTER: I have raised the issue of my security with General Musharraf, and I've asked him to provide me the security that I'm entitled to as a former prime minister. I hope that he will provide me the security because I have been a target of terrorists in the past, and I know I could be a target in the future.
ROBERTSON: Bhutto's suspicion of Pakistan's military has deep roots. Ezra Hook (ph), a U.S.-backed military dictator, hanged her father, a former prime minister from 1979. Last summer in an off- camera conversation, Bhutto told me she wanted to get Pakistan's army back to the barracks, get them out of politics and that's where supporters saw danger in Pakistan's zero sum game politics.
The political equation was simple. If she rose to power the army would lose it and fight back. What can be gleaned from the video in the moments before Bhutto's death, her assassin appears expert, steadily firing three shots at Bhutto seconds before he knew he would blow himself up.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON: How Benazir Bhutto's party handles the claims and counterclaims on how President Musharraf's government handles those same claims and counterclaims will very much affect security in the country in the coming days -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thank you, Nic.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today declared it is very important that the democratic process move forward in Pakistan. Rice today signed a book of condolences at the Pakistani embassy in Washington. Rice moved that Benazir Bhutto was a woman of courage and a champion of democracy. Rice was a leading advocate of Bhutto's return to Pakistan after eight years in exile.
Bush administration officials today said they are confident Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure. Concerns about the security of those weapons have risen since the death of Benazir Bhutto. The Pentagon is keeping a close watch on the rising chaos in Pakistan. Barbara Starr reports from the Pentagon.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As violence grows across Pakistan the U.S. military is watching closely, looking for any indications the long-term security of this vital ally is threatened. The Pentagon's top priority is to get the Pakistani army moving in the fight against al Qaeda. Billions of dollars in training and equipment has been earmarked to do just that.
But the U.S. is walking a tense line between supporting a fragile Musharraf government, pro-democracy Pakistanis in the streets and the military, one of the most respected institutions in the country. It all comes as al Qaeda is posing a greater threat inside Pakistan.
AKBAR AHMED, AUTHOR, "ISLAM UNDER SIEGE": If Pakistan collapses as a key ally of the United States -- that's what the United States considers Pakistan -- it will have an immediate impact on Afghanistan, on the war on terror.
STARR: This man, General Asfah Keyani (ph), now the head of the Pakistani army is seen as central to U.S. strategy.
GEN. JAMES CARTWRIGHT, VICE CHMN., JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: We are impressed with this new chief and how he has set some goals and the vision for their military.
STARR: But Keyani (ph) was hand picked by Musharraf. He also has ties to Pakistan's intelligence services, all raising questions about his commitment to democratic reform. Reform is critical to keeping billions of dollars in U.S. aid flowing.
Congress wants assurances the Pakistani army isn't misusing the money or planning another coup if Musharraf weakens further, and the ultimate question, can the Pakistani army still assure the Pentagon it can keep Pakistan's nuclear weapons safe especially if the government falls and fundamentalists take over, not the military.
KARL INDERFURTH, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Clearly, if things unravel in Pakistan one has to think about worse case scenarios and that would be the worst case scenario, but I don't think we're there right now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: There are now really two challenges for the Pentagon, getting a fragile Pakistani military moving in the fight a against al Qaeda and making sure that the Pakistani military is supporting democracy in that troubled country -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much, Barbara Starr. Thanks, Barbara.
In the war in Iraq, insurgents killed another one of our troops. The soldier was killed by a roadside bomb north of Baghdad. Nineteen of our troops have been killed so far this month. That is the lowest monthly total of the entire war; 3,901 of our troops have been killed since this war began; 28,773 troops wounded; 12,889 of them seriously wounded.
President Bush today surprised lawmakers and killed a massive defense spending bill. The White House said a clause in the bill would allow victims of Saddam Hussein's regime to sue the new Iraqi government. Among other things the defense bill included a pay raise for our troops. Ed Henry reports from near the president's ranch in Crawford, Texas -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, the president's move basically coming after pressure from the Iraqi government. They basically threatened to pull out up to $25 billion in assets from various U.S. banks that they have. The Iraqi government saying they would have to protect those assets because of a provision in this defense bill that basically would have allowed American victims of Saddam Hussein's regime, some prisoners of war from the 1991 Persian Gulf War who say they were beaten and tortured by the dictator. They would be allowed to move forward with lawsuits, but officials from the White House to the State Department basically said today that an already difficult Iraqi government could not handle a mountain of lawsuits.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TOM CASEY, STATE DEPT. SPOKESMAN: I don't think that we would ever see it as helpful to have at a time when Iraq is trying to rebuild and overcome the terrible legacy of Saddam's misrule (ph), to have its national assets be seized or otherwise diverted for those kinds of purposes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: But Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are teeing off on the president saying that if he had these objections he should have voiced them more loudly months ago rather than waited until the end of the year when Congress had left town. Also this puts the president a bit on the defensive, because as you mentioned, there was a pay raise for the troops in this bill that the president has now vetoed as well as some more veterans health funding.
Basically, a three percent pay raise will still go through on January 1st, no matter, but a .5 percent pay hike will not go through because of this veto. The White House though is insisting that after they get all of this worked out in January when Congress comes back to full speed at the beginning of next year they will give the rest of the pay raise to the troops retroactively -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much, Ed Henry.
Still to come, a report card on whether the Bush administration is carrying out the will of the people on the issue of illegal immigration. Casey Wian will have the report -- Casey.
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, there has been some progress this year in securing our nation's borders and in enforcing immigration law, but much, much more remains to be done. We'll explain coming up -- Kitty. PILGRIM: Thanks, Casey.
Also illegal immigration is the burning issue on the campaign trail. One top candidate seems to be having trouble with the numbers on it, however.
And what's next for U.S. policy in Pakistan after the death of Benazir Bhutto? Three leading political analysts will join us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: 2007 may be remembered as the year the American people rejected amnesty for illegal aliens and demanded increased border security, but the federal government still has not done enough to control the crisis over illegal immigration; Casey Wian reports on this year's progress and what still needs to be done.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN (voice-over): Customs and border protection says it apprehended more than 876,000 illegal aliens in 2007, down 20 percent from the year before, arrest of non-Mexicans fell 37 percent. The White House says the numbers show the border patrol is doing a better job.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We apprehended fewer people, it means fewer are trying to come across and fewer trying to come across because we're deterring people from attempting illegal border crossings in the first place.
WIAN: While the border patrol added more than 2,000 agents 2007, huge gaps remain in border security. We accompanied Texas Congressman Ted Poe on a border tour showing unguarded footbridges across the Rio Grand and no border patrol agents for 24 miles.
REP. TED POE (R), TEXAS: There's no one around here watching or guarding this bridge and obviously it's used for people to come into the United States illegally.
WIAN: Law enforcement has also made a dent in cross-border drug trafficking. Marijuana seizures are up 36 percent, cocaine up 11 percent. Officials say drug supplies are down in many U.S. cities because of cooperation with the governments of Colombia and Mexico in the fight against drug cartels.
KAREN TANDY, DEA: This stems from an unprecedented, historic alliance of our three countries.
WIAN: Away from the borders there's been progress in immigration law enforcement.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I said that I was illegal and the agent refused to arrest me.
WIAN: Including high-profile raids against businesses hiring illegal workers and the deportation of nearly a quarter million criminal illegal aliens such as activist Elvira Arellano (ph), deported despite her effort to seek sanctuary in a church. But the federal government's plan to use mismatched Social Security records to crack down on employers of illegal aliens has been blocked by the courts.
MICHAEL CHERTOFF, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: I do want to make it clear that litigation such as the effort to block the no-match rule or the effort to block building fence is precisely the reason why it's been so difficult over the last 30 years to get control of the border.
WIAN: Some states have had more success. Arizona's new law harshly penalizing businesses using illegal workers survived legal challenges and takes effect January 1st. It's caused some illegal aliens to begin returning voluntarily to their home countries. It has also sparked outrage among advocates of expanded illegal alien rights.
JEANNE BUTTERFIELD, AMERICAN IMMIGRATION ASSN.: We have 12 million undocumented people performing needed services, contributing helping to build this great nation and if employers can't continue to employ them because of these new regulations, we have a crisis of major proportions.
WIAN: A crisis that so far the nation's elected lawmakers have been unable or unwilling to solve.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: It's unlikely that any major legislation to deal with illegal immigration will pass next year. President Bush, a lame duck and Congress deadlocked over proposals to grant amnesty to illegal aliens -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Casey, 2007 might also be the year to remember the controversial trial of border patrol agents Ramos and Compean. What would 2008 hold for them, possibly?
WIAN: Well, their supporters are very hopeful that 2008 could actually bring a new trial for the two border patrol agents. They've been in jail for about a year now, mostly in solitary confinement and a federal appeals court is hearing their appeal for a new trial. That happened a few weeks ago. The arguments for that appeal and their supporters are very encouraged because of some of the things that the appellate court judges said.
They said that the government overreacted by charging these agents. They said that some of the government's arguments, that the drug dealer that Ramos and Compean shot was only a low-level drug mule and not a career drug smuggler defied common sense. So the supporters of the agents are very, very encouraged and believe that this appellate court may actually grant these two agents a new trial.
Also support from many members of Congress continues to increase. Now more than 100 members of Congress have called on President Bush to pardon the agents, but so far the president has not budged -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: He certainly has not. And let's hope that 2008 is a better year for agents Ramos and Compean.
WIAN: Absolutely.
PILGRIM: Thank you, Casey.
That brings us to tonight's poll. How would you grade the Bush administration's efforts this year to tackle our illegal immigration crisis? Pass or fail? Cast your vote at loudobbs.com and we'll bring you the results a little bit later in the broadcast.
The government of Mexico is highly critical of U.S. immigration policy, but it is taking extraordinary measures when it comes to its own immigration crisis. Mexico is taking drastic measures to control illegal immigration across its southern border.
Now Mexico will reportedly use an electronic chip to curb illegal immigration from Guatemala and Belize. The biochip implant will replace the so-called local pass currently being used to enter the country. In 2006 Mexico arrested 200,000 people trying to enter their country illegally.
Still ahead, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's bizarre reaction to the crisis in Pakistan; he links it to our illegal immigration crisis. And the presidential candidates aren't just running against each other. There is another candidate in the race for '08 and we'll have a special report.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: New indications today that the mortgage crisis is taking an escalating toll on our middle class; figures just out from the Commerce Department show that sales of new homes plunged more than 34 percent over the last year. That's the biggest yearly slide in nearly 16 years and the plunge points towards even more trouble ahead for the housing market.
Well it may seem odd, a glut of unsold homes in a population boom, the Census Bureau says our population at the start of next year will be more than 303 million. That's a rise of more than 2.8 million people in the last year or one person every 13 seconds.
Time now for some of your thoughts; Rosemary in Connecticut writes, "My husband and I watch your show all the time. It's the one place we know we can go to for the facts and the truth. Thank you for looking out for the middle class. We really need the help. I have to say that I am disappointed in all the candidates that are running for president. If my husband and I decided to vote, we will be voting as Independents, thanks to you."
Kia in Georgia, "I would like to say that I love watching your show, Lou. You give me hope that some day the middle class will be able to live the lives that we want without having to penny-pinch every day." And Mark in Idaho wrote, "Dear Lou, our family is joining the people who are now Independent. Thanks for keeping us informed about things that concern the middle class. Keep up the good work, hurry back, we miss you."
We'll have more of your e-mails a little bit later in the broadcast. Each you whose e-mail is read here receives a copy of Lou's new book "Independents Day: Awakening the American Spirit." It is a book that corporate America, the Democrats and the Republicans don't want you to read.
Coming up in presidential politics, a newcomer is roiling the race in Iowa. We'll tell you all about it.
And Republican Mike Huckabee's foreign policy credentials have been under intense scrutiny and now the candidate's bizarre response to the crisis in Pakistan; all of that straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Illegal immigration remains a hot issue on the campaign trail. Republican candidate Mitt Romney is attacking his rivals on that very issue and today Romney unveiled a new TV ad in New Hampshire, blasting Senator John McCain's record.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: McCain pushed to let every illegal immigrant stay here permanently, even voted to allow illegals to collect Social Security and Mitt Romney? Mitt Romney cut taxes and spending as governor. He opposes amnesty for illegals. Mitt Romney, John McCain, there is a difference.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: Now Romney currently leads McCain in the New Hampshire polls, but with less than two weeks to go before the New Hampshire primary, McCain is gaining ground. McCain dismissed the new ads as, quote, "desperate".
Mike Huckabee also raising the issue of illegal immigration today, but in a strange twist the candidate's position is drawing new questions about his foreign policy credentials and his grasp of math. Dana Bash joins us live from Pella, Iowa -- Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kitty, in a very candid moment today a senior Huckabee campaign official told me that they understand that their candidate, with him there is, quote, "no foreign policy credential" and that they have a disadvantage because like many of the other candidates that can talk about the fact that they know Benazir Bhutto, this official pretty much admitted that again he is at a disadvantage and that until they, quote, "get him briefed" they're going to try to keep this issue close to home.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) BASH (voice-over): Mike Huckabee is responding to crisis in Pakistan in an off-beat way, tying it to a red-hot campaign issue, immigration.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There were more Pakistanis who illegally crossed the border than of any other nationality except for those immediately south of our border, 660 last year. That's a lot of illegals from Pakistan.
BASH: Sounding an alarm about illegal Pakistanis in America is a surprising tactic for a candidate who preaches tolerance. He dismissed any concern he's playing to fear of foreigners.
HUCKABEE: No, not at all. I'm just saying that a lot of Americans sitting in Pella, Iowa maybe look half way around the world and say how does that affect me?
BASH: When asked by CNN for the source of his statistic, 660 illegal Pakistanis, Huckabee seemed unsure.
HUCKABEE: It's come largely from CIA numbers and -- I'll get you the exact source, but those are numbers that I got today from a briefing and I believe they are CIA and/or immigration numbers.
BASH: A senior Huckabee campaign official admitted to CNN the former Arkansas governor has, quote, "no foreign policy credential". That's why his campaign turned to immigration, a top concern for Iowa GOP voters, especially men he's been losing ground with. The pivot followed a gap, not appearing to know martial law was lifted in Pakistan two weeks ago.
HUCKABEE: What impact does it have on whether or not there's going to be martial law continued in Pakistan?
BASH: Huckabee later said he meant he worried martial law would be reinstated. Governors running for president historically have trouble proving their foreign policy chops, some more than others. Remember this?
BUSH: The new Pakistani general has just been elected is -- not elected this guy took over office.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Name him.
BUSH: General -- I can't name the general.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)
BUSH: General.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BASH: And now for the record, Mike Huckabee does know that general's name is Pervez Musharraf who, of course, is still the leader in Pakistan and on that figure, Kitty that Huckabee cited, that 660 illegal Pakistanis in the United States, his campaign tells us that they actually got it from a newspaper article written back in March of 2006.
Now, our own Homeland Security correspondent Jeanne Meserve crunched the numbers and talked to a government source who said that if you add up the number of Pakistanis apprehended at the border and also turned away, that it adds up to a number somewhere close to 660, but as you full well know, Kitty, it is hard to know how many illegals from any country are undetected in the United States.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much, Dana Bash. Thanks, Dana.
After these many long months of campaigning, you might think you know all about the candidates. There's one you haven't heard of. Bill Schneider reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Every candidate is competing against a candidate name expected. They're trying to do better than expected. The polls help set expectations. The latest Iowa republican polls show Mike Huckabee on top followed by Mitt Romney, so Huckabee's expected to win, right?
Not if you listen to him.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Considering the resources that we're up against it would be a miracle to win here.
SCHNEIDER: He's lowering expectations. They all do it for themselves. Huckabee is expected to win Iowa because it has a strong evangelical Christian vote. That's his base.
If Romney beats back Huckabee in Iowa, it will be an even bigger victory because he would have also done better than expected.
Polls show a close race between three democrats in Iowa. A clear-cut victory by any of them means they would have done better than expected.
JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What that means in practical terms is someone will come out of here with momentum.
SCHNEIDER: Edwards is trying to lower expectations that he has to win Iowa because he's invested so much time there.
EDWARDS: I don't think you can say for any of the three of us that you have to win.
SCHNEIDER: His campaign is telling reporters that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have more staff members in Iowa. You should expect them to win, but the tight polls mean that if her competitors expect to stop Clinton, they may have to do it in Iowa. That's where she's weakest. And other democrats, they just want to do better than expected.
SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ladies and gentlemen, if you get me out of here in one, two or three, I warn you, I'm your next president.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Bill Clinton lost the New Hampshire primary in 1992, but because he did better than expected by coming in second he labeled himself the comeback kid. Linden Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968, but because as an incumbent at the peak of the Vietnam War he did worse than expected. He just soon got out of the race.
PILGRIM: Expectations, Hillary Clinton and Romney were both expected to win in Iowa. Now it's narrowed, their advantages are narrowing. If they don't win, will they really be hurt?
SCHNEIDER: Well, if they don't win they'd be wounded and they'd have to come back and both of them would have to win New Hampshire which is a state where they've always been strong and they've been ahead in the polls so far. The democratic polls are getting close. But both of them are relying on New Hampshire as a must-win state.
PILGRIM: These two are so closely tied in the expectation game.
Let's also talk about Huckabee and Pakistan and immigration and the mishmash. That was just a bad campaign day, wasn't it?
SCHNEIDER: It was a bad campaign day. Mike Huckabee is a populist. That's the whole nature of his campaign. He has a populist understanding of Pakistan which is to say not very much. Now does that -- the political establishment is snickering at his mistakes and his misjudgments about Pakistan and the number of illegal aliens coming in and the so-called border which no one knows where it is, but I'm not sure it bothers his base very much because they probably have the same understanding.
PILGRIM: They probably might think that that's refreshing.
SCHNEIDER: Yes, they do. He's a man of the people.
PILGRIM: A man of the people. Thanks very much, Bill Schneider.
Still ahead, the presidential candidates are putting on a media blitz in the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses. Will those ads sway the voters?
What's next in Pakistan after the deaths of Benazir Bhutto and how qualified are the presidential candidates to handle the crisis in Pakistan? Three of the best political analysts in the country join me. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: The media blitz is on. With the nominating caucuses and primary so close together, candidates are breaking their spending records for their ad campaigns. Susan Malveaux reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Just days away from the Iowa caucuses, voters here are being bombarded. Media intelligence consulting company is tracking the traffic and found 1,093 political ads aired in a single day on broadcast TV stations in Iowa alone, the equivalent of more than nine solid hours of commercials in a 24-hour period.
EVAN TRACEY, CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYST: Every time you turn on your television, get in a car or open your mailbox you are seeing a political ad of some sort.
MALVEAUX: Analyst, Evan Tracey, started TNS over ten years. He studied whether campaign ads make a difference.
TRACEY: They do. You're hearing basically three themes. Change, immigration and I'm not George Bush. It's very hard for anything unique to cut through to voters, but if your messages aren't up there you have no chance of getting through.
MALVEAUX: Getting through is what candidate are banking on and now along with independent groups, they are spending nearly $1 million a day for network TV advertising and they've broken all records in pouring $83 million in the race for the White House so far.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She changed the lives of 6 million kids.
MALVEAUX: Tracey says some of the biggest spenders are democratic Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and republican candidate Mitt Romney, who are each shelling out at least $400,000 a day to run ads in their early voting state, but Tracey adds, big bucks for advertising doesn't automatically mean a big payoff in the end.
TRACEY: If you look at someone like Mike Huckabee who spent very little compared to everyone in the race, he's doing extremely well in the polls. If you look at somebody like Mitt Romney, however, his place in the polls is directly attributable to his advertising. So each campaign is different. Each campaign has been using television differently in this race.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: So what makes advertising so important to these candidates? This fact from back in 2004, among the democrats, Iowa caucus goers, 20 percent of them reported they made up their minds within the last three days before the caucus. So there is still time to sway voters. Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, Des Moines, Iowa.
PILGRIM: Well for more on the political scene in Iowa, joining me now in our D.C. bureau, Diana West, columnist for the Washington Times and Diana is the author of "The Death of the Grown Up." And here in New York, Michael Goodwin, columnist for the New York Daily news and we'll be joined by Jonathan Martin, senior political reporter from Politico.com from Iowa in just a few moments.
But for now let's take a look at the numbers. We'll crunch the numbers on Iowa and it is really a statistical dead heat as Suzanne Malveaux reported. The last-minute ad push is more critical than ever. We have Clinton at 29 percent, Obama at 26 percent and Edwards at 25 percent.
Now, Michael, are you sensing anything in the last bit of -- flurry of activity that's giving you any clue or is it an absolute coin toss at this point?
MICHAEL GOODWIN, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: It has been a coin toss I think for about two weeks now and it looks as though it's not moving and at this point what you probably need say couple of things. Somebody can make a mistake which would reverberate, of course, the another guy or you have the turnout issue and the weather could determine a lot of that, but it will be a ground game. Who can get the caucus goers to come out? Each of them have strength and each have potential weaknesses, but it is so close right now that it will come down to the final push.
PILGRIM: Uncontrollable factors. In fact, the emergence of international news this week certainly did make all the candidates scramble and some did better than others. Diana?
DIANA WEST, WASHINGTON TIMES: Well it's true. I think one more point about the three-way tie almost that we see now is the very interesting report that Hillary Clinton is no longer taking questions at the end of her speeches. This has been the habit of her and the other candidates to have a little Q&A after a talk. Now her campaign theme music blares on at the end of her speeches and she's whisked away.
And of course with the Benazir Bhutto assassination, she's been taking questions on that at least from the press and there we see her trying to play up her experience which, when you start looking back on it, seems to come down to an official luncheon and maybe some chats along the years. I'm not sure that she can really parlay that into a big credential, but she is trying.
PILGRIM: She did take a very big initiative in demanding an independent international investigation into the death of Bhutto and just stepping forward and putting herself in the spotlight on this issue.
We are now joined by Jonathan Martin who does join us from Iowa, a very cold Iowa and we're glad to see Jonathan. We're talking about the very tight, statistical dead heat in Iowa with the democrats. Are you sensing that there will be last-minute swing one way or the other? What are you hearing on the ground there? Because you are definitely on the ground there.
JONATHAN MARTIN, POLITICO.COM: Folks you talk to here say that Obama has a lot of buzz around his campaign, but there is no question that the events that happened yesterday in Pakistan have had an impact on this campaign. Certainly, Clinton, as you guys mentioned, is trying to take advantage of that today. The question though I think is this, when folks go to the caucuses on January 3rd, is this international news still relevant? Is it still being talked about and still on the front pages? If your answer is yes, it could help Clinton. If it's not, I think Obama probably then takes back his sort of surge.
PILGRIM: Go ahead, Michael.
GOODWIN: I'm not sure if that's right. I know that's what most people say about Clinton, but I think Diana as said about the nature of her experience is not so compelling on these things and I think Obama's whole campaign has been about a different approach to foreign policy. So if you're already supporting Obama, I don't think the Bhutto situation will pull you away.
PILGRIM: The New York times, too, a very strong spotlight on the actual nature of her participation in the previous administrations.
I wanted to ask, the January 8th New Hampshire primary has Obama slightly ahead at 32 percent, then Clinton of 30 and Edwards, but, Jonathan, are you sensing that they're basically fighting two battles at once here because of the short time in between or is it really just a one-time push for Iowa and then we'll deal with New Hampshire when it comes up?
MARTIN: No, there are two separate campaigns here going on certainly. Folks in New Hampshire are quick to tell you that they don't take their instructions from the folks here in Iowa and they will vote as they wish. That said, there's no question, though, that because of this shortened timeframe now, the immense news coming out of Iowa, if Obama was to win, especially if Clinton was to come in third place, that would impact, at least to some small degree, what goes on in New Hampshire especially if Obama wins Iowa.
A lot of the folks who are independent in New Hampshire who could vote in either party's context, would probably be inclined to get behind Obama who at that point would be leading this across news pagers across the country.
PILGRIM: Diana, is there time for enough momentum to build up in a week, do you think?
WEST: Well I think there's always time with these things, but I think that independent voter dynamic is going to be very interesting because as Jonathan says, if Obama comes up with a victory in Iowa, the independent vote will very likely go more democratic. If Obama comes in second or so, that independent vote could really go home to John McCain on the republican side. So it really -- so much depends on Iowa even if the folks on New Hampshire don't take their marching orders. It could really affect things.
PILGRIM: We've seen Mitt Romney coming out very strongly against Huckabee and McCain just suddenly and some are saying these are absolutely critical in this tight race.
GOODWIN: It would seem that overall what Romney is basically doing is kind of drawing the line in the sand in New Hampshire. He can lose Iowa if he must, but he can't lose New Hampshire and he certainly can't lose them both and having been the governor in Massachusetts, having a bigger lead in New Hampshire all along, having a different constituency there, if he can't win New Hampshire, I think Romney is in deep, deep trouble.
PILGRIM: We'll look at the republican poll numbers after we take a quick break with Diana West, Michael Goodwin and Jonathan Martin. We'll be right back. Stay with us.
First, we'd like to remind you to vote in tonight's poll. How would you grade the Bush administration's efforts this year to tackle the immigration crisis. Fail or pass? Cast your vote at LouDobbs.com and we'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: We're back with our panel, Jonathan Martin, Diana West and Michael Goodwin. We just went through the democratic candidates.
Let's go through the republicans and we'll start with Iowa and we're seeing a big lead for Huckabee there and let's take a look at the numbers; Huckabee, 37, Romney, 23, Thompson, 11, McCain, 11 and Giuliani 6 percent. Can the former Arkansas governor keep his momentum there? Let's turn to Jonathan who's actually got the street cred because he's standing there freezing in Iowa.
MARTIN: Well speaking of street cred, the folks that I talk to here on the street say that the race is much tighter than that. The Romney folks are feeling a little bit more confident than they would if they were down by that big of a margin. I think it's somewhere in the single numbers now.
But there's no question that Huckabee does enjoy a groundswell of support especially among evangelical voters. They're a very hearty bunch and they don't really care what Romney is saying about their candidate. They just plain like the guy.
But that said, there is still a number of folks out here who are sort of more traditional GOP activists. They have not yet made up their minds firmly who to support and that's exactly who Romney is targeting right now with the negative ads aimed toward Huckabee.
PILGRIM: Diana, thoughts on this?
WEST: Yes. Well, I think that's where we're going to see this -- we may see a little Romney swing particularly after some of his comments coming up about Pakistan and the Bhutto assassination, tying it into our own borders. I mean this is the kind of gaff that can make people very uneasy about the candidate. We saw it years ago with Gerald Ford and his comments about Eastern Europe not being under the Soviet Union's Egis. This really destroyed his support, eroded his support so we could see that with Huckabee and it could really change.
I saw a curious comment coming out of the Huckabee campaign today which was that they fully expect him to finish in the top three which may be just nice awe shucks modesty, but also could be maybe preparing us for perhaps not a victory.
PILGRIM: Whoever heard of awe shucks modesty in a campaign? We can actually play the sound byte of Huckabee and what he said about Pakistan for the benefit of our viewers. Do we have that?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm making the observation that we have more Pakistani illegals coming across our border than of all other nationalities, except those immediately south of the border and in light of what's happening in Pakistan it ought to give us pause as to why are so many illegals coming across these borders?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: This was kind of a mishmash of analysis there.
GOODWIN: Saturday Night Live, I think, is looking for him. It's a very strange concept. I mean I've never heard anything like it and obviously the numbers are not supported, his claims are not supported by the facts. So it's an odd thing. He can actually learn a lot just by reading the newspapers.
PILGRIM: You know that said, John McCain's statement about Pakistan was a little bit garbled also and I'd like to play that for our viewers. Some candidates are not doing well on this issue.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been to Waziristan. I knew Benazir Bhutto. I know Musharraf very well, and if I were president of the United States, I would be on the phone right now and I would be meeting with the National Security Council and I would be seeing ways that we can help restore order or maintain order, or restore order whichever is the case in Pakistan.
PILGRIM: This doesn't seem like a real clear policy statement, does it, Michael?
GOODWIN: No. What does strike me about that and of course, all the others, is everyone's talking about democracy in Pakistan and in fact, democracy in Pakistan may not be such a great idea for us when you consider a recent poll there found that Osama Bin Laden was more popular than Pervez Musharraf, the president. So I'm not sure we want Osama Bin Laden and al Qaeda running Pakistan with its nuclear weapons.
PILGRIM: Jonathan, how is this topic playing in Iowa? Is it really on the front burner?
MARTIN: It's not exactly and that's a great question. I'm glad you asked. All the folks that I talked to last night and this morning here in Iowa were more interested especially at republican events, about the immigration issue or about the horse race here or about whatever they happen to be passionate about.
Questions about this affair did not come up in the two places where I was at and when Senator McCain took questions from the crowd, nobody asked about the Pakistani situation. It was again, immigration and those kind of matters.
So, again, you know, I'm not sure that this has totally penetrated the consciousness of voters here and I'm not sure especially a week from now, if it will still be relevant to them.
PILGRIM: Diana, can you weigh in on this?
WEST: Yeah. Sure. It will be relevant if the candidates can make a clear case. This is a place where the candidates have a role to play in shaping our policy and they really should make it clear why the Iowa voters should find it very important to our future.
PILGRIM: Well you know, I find striking on a day when the news was that dramatic and that dominant that it is not resonating in a political meeting in the evening and that in itself is significant, isn't it, Jonathan?
MARTIN: No, I think so. I think it underscores the sort of nature of the Iowa caucuses. The folks here are political activists. They're interested in the sort of red meat issues that drive the two parties and that's what's going on motivate them to vote next week and it's on those issues that they're probably coming out based upon them.
PILGRIM: All right. Thank you very much. Diana West, Michael Goodwin, Jonathan Martin, thank you very much.
Still ahead, we'll have the results of tonight's poll, more of your thoughts. We'll also have heroes. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Now Heroes. It's our weekly tribute to our men and women in uniform. Tonight, we introduce you to Air Force Technical Sergeant Scott Innis. He served three combat tours in Afghanistan and was awarded Silver Star for bravery. Katherine Barrett has his story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KATHERINE BARRETT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Air Force Special Tactics Airmen proudly call themselves quiet professionals, top secret missions and emotions under wraps.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: By his heroic actions and unselfless dedication to duty, Sergeant Innis has reflected great credit upon himself and the United States air force.
BARRETT: A technical sergeant and combat controller, Scott Innis is honored with a Silver Star and Bronze Star with valor for keeping cool in a 24-hour firefight. He appears decidedly uneasy in the limelight.
TECH. SGT. SCOTT INNIS, U.S. AIR FORCE: I like the fact that my unit is being recognized for this through me and the team itself is being recognized, but I take no credit of that on my own at all.
BARRETT: Special tactics airmen are all about staying urn the radar, one reason why we can't show some of these brave faces.
INNIS: It's the best unknown job in special operations out of all the services. We get to do everything the Seals, the Marines, the Army Special Forces do as far as getting to work, jumping, diving, demolitions. We do it all.
BARRETT: Innis put it all to the test in Afghanistan March 28, 2006. Alone, exposed, unarmored on a small plywood control tower.
INNIS: We had about two sandbags of protection around the base of it and it was just a flat, like a piece of plywood with sandbags. I got on top of that and there was a convoy coming up and it was under attack so I had to coordinate the fires. I called in aircraft and broke the enemy's back that was firing on the convoy enabling them to come inside our wire. As soon as that ended, I took off my body armor, put it down and I went down to the tower and that's when the fire started from all directions. So I had to go back and run up that tower and get as flat as I could on top of it spilling in there and just started calling in air strikes and doing my job.
LT. COL. JEFFREY STRAHAN, U.S. AIR FORCE: He's a quiet professional. One of the guys I turn to handle the tough missions.
BARRETT: It's a mission Sergeant Innis would not trade.
INNIS: I love my job. I wake up every day looking forward to going to work. Guys I'm working with are fantastic. I get to play army my whole life. So it's a lot of fun.
BARRETT: Katherine Barrett for CNN at McCord Air Force Base, Tacoma, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Now the results of tonight's poll. 99 percent of you would give the Bush administration a failing grade on its effort to tackle our illegal immigration crisis. 1 percent of you are a little more sympathetic. Time now for some of your thoughts.
Norm in Germany wrote, "I watch your excellent show on satellite TV in Germany. Keep up the great work. I too am an independent. Thanks for your continued support for our troops."
Arthur in Florida, "Dear Lou, thank you for providing the knowledge to make us understand what is really going on in America. Your efforts have turned this whole country around and now many of us are prepared to start taking back our country by voting out the politicians that have always followed their own agenda and refused to do the will of the people. Again, Lou, thank you for all you do."
Ruth in Arizona, "Lou, I've been a registered democrat since I was 18, and now I'm 72. Today I was reborn. I am now registered independent. I hope I live long enough to see an independent president in the White House and thank you for enlightening me."
Richard in Michigan wrote, "Lou, I would like to thank you and your crew at CNN for your professional and informative journalism on issues that affect the average American. This morning I read in the Detroit Free Press that Michigan will no longer issue drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants. I feel this is due mostly to your coverage on this issue, making us aware and outraged at some of our government's policies. Keep up the good work!"
Dan in North Carolina, "Lou Dobbs should be the 'Man of the year'; he is the only one trying to help the poor and the middle class. Thank you Lou Dobbs."
We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts at LouDobbs.com and if we read your email here, we will send you a copy of Lou's new book, "Independents Day, Awakening the American Spirit." It's a book that corporate America, the democrats and the republicans don't want you to read.
Thanks for beign with us. Please join us tomorrow. For all of us here, thanks for watching.
Good night from New York.
And now, a CNN special investigation, "PAKISTAN TERROR CENTRAL."
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