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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Presidential Candidates Barnstorm Across Iowa

Aired January 02, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Well thank you.
Republican and Democratic presidential candidates barnstorming across Iowa in the final hours of campaigning before the caucuses. And is Senator Hillary Clinton accusing me of being full of quote, "hot air" on the issue of illegal immigration.

We'll tell you who is really full of hot air in our illegal immigration crisis and most of them reside somewhere in Washington, D.C. We'll have all of that, all the day's news, and much more straight ahead here tonight.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Wednesday, January 2. Live from New York, here now Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening, everybody. Democratic and Republican presidential candidates tonight making a desperate last minute effort to win votes in Iowa; the caucuses begin in 24 hours.

Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama are supposedly in a dead heat in the Democratic race. In the Republican contest polls show that Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are the clear front- runners. All of the candidates are battling to win undecided voters who could determine the outcome of this battle.

We'll have extensive coverage tonight from three of the best political correspondents and analysts anywhere. We begin our coverage tonight with Jessica Yellin in Des Moines, Iowa -- Jessica.

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the Democratic candidates are outdoing each another, trying to lower expectations for tomorrow night, but at the same time they're pulling out all the stops, targeting key voters as part of the largest get out to vote or get out the caucus effort the state has ever seen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

YELLIN (voice-over): You hear it often at Barack Obama's events.

MONICA GREEN, IOWA VOTER: I have been a Republican my entire adult life until now. And I am so proud to tell you I will be changing my registration so that I can stand for change and caucus for Barack Obama on January 3rd.

(APPLAUSE)

YELLIN: Obama has been wooing independents and Republicans, promising to bring Americans together.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There are all kinds of Republicans and independents outside of Washington who have also been disaffected, who have also felt disappointment in their government, who can also be part of a coalition for change.

YELLIN: It could be working, at least according to Tuesday's "Des Moines Register" poll, which shows an unprecedented number of independents and Republicans plan to caucus with Democrats, most for Obama, but the other campaigns are betting the Obama enthusiasm is a Howard Dean like phenomenon, lots of hype, low turnout. Their get out to vote efforts are at full throttle. Senator Clinton rallied campaign workers who would go door-to-door offering rides and childcare to help Iowans get to the caucuses.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You're venturing out into the cold today.

YELLIN: She's appealing directly to older and female voters.

H. CLINTON: Put on your coats, warm up the car, call your friends, pick up a buddy. Come out to caucus tomorrow night and together we'll make history.

YELLIN: Operating with far less money than the others, John Edwards pulled a 36-hour barn storming tour of the state.

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know we have important work still left to do.

YELLIN: He's counting on a strong base of Democrats who reliably caucus come sleet or snow to show up for him in numbers.

EDWARDS: Stay with us during the day on Thursday. Get your friends and family and everybody else to the caucuses with you on Thursday night.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

YELLIN: And Lou, one other note, Senator Barack Obama in his efforts to woo independents and Republicans seems to have alienated certain Democrats. Some left-wing bloggers are now claiming that Obama has turned his back on his liberal base -- Lou.

DOBBS: Jessica, thank you very much. Jessica Yellin reporting from Des Moines.

Republican candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tonight are highlighting their experience in the battle to win votes. Huckabee is taking an unconventional approach in his campaign, appearing on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno. Romney says he is focused on the caucuses in Iowa, not Los Angeles.

Dana Bash has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For his efforts on our behalf...

DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Come from behind candidate Mike Huckabee is trying to rally Republicans to caucus like he's leading a revolution.

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If we win, it will be the most unbelievable political story in decades. You will tell your kids and grandkids, I helped make political history.

BASH: Reminding Christian conservative voters why they like him, consistency authenticity on their issues.

HUCKABEE: When I tell you that I'm going fight for human life, it's not something that a pollster just told me last week that I need to say.

BASH: Millionaire businessman Mitt Romney wants to close the deal with leadership.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've run things. I've built teams. I've been able to make differences, not just talk about differences.

BASH: And an uplifting litany of promises.

ROMNEY: I want to strengthen America. I want to strengthen our homes and our families with good health care, with great schools and great values.

BASH: But the urgent battle now isn't on the stump. It is out on the streets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm Matt with the Mitt Romney campaign. How are you doing?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Good.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm just here to remind you about the caucuses.

BASH: And back at headquarters on the phone.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Do you know of anybody you can bring with you, friends or family?

ROMNEY: We had people out knocking on doors in bitter cold weather. There were over 12,000 calls made yesterday from my headquarters.

BASH: The great unknown will Romney's well funded establishment operation with voter list and databases win the day or will it be Huckabee's less organized, last minute sign-ups in the back of the room...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're going to call them and remind them to come and show up.

BASH: And passion from churchgoers, home-schoolers and first time caucus goers.

HUCKABEE: Load up your car, your van, rent a van, a big bus, whatever it takes, get out there and caucus and take friends and relatives and people from work and neighbors.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Now the caucuses are obviously tomorrow night, but both of those top candidates vying for the top spot here in Iowa. They're already looking beyond Iowa. Mike Huckabee, he is already out in California. He's trying to get some national exposure.

He is going to be on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno tonight. And Mitt Romney, he spent some time today focusing not on Mike Huckabee. He was focusing on the man that he's battling in New Hampshire, the very next battleground that Mitt Romney has got to contend with. He was focusing on John McCain, Lou, attacking him for not supporting President Bush's tax cuts -- Lou.

DOBBS: All right. Dana, thank you very much. Dana Bash.

And joining me from Des Moines, our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley. Candy, after those reports, I suspect that many people are wondering what in the world is going on in Iowa, a lot at stake for those candidates. Who has the most to lose there?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well I mean I think front-runners always have the most to lose, or perceived front- runners. Hillary Clinton campaign will tell you oh this has always been a fight here in Iowa, but you know and I know they have worked very hard to kind of make her an incumbent, make her look invincible, unbeatable.

She loses here and it hurts Hillary Clinton. It is not necessarily fatal. In fact, probably isn't fatal. She has a lot of money. She has a huge organization. She can go on, but nonetheless it does hurt her and it certainly helps whoever wins. You move on to the Republican side, Romney has all this money he has just poured it onto the air waives here. He has been the front runner for some time now, not just in Iowa, but also in New Hampshire, so he loses and he gets injured and it makes that battle in New Hampshire with John McCain all the more difficult.

DOBBS: Candy, let me ask you this. I mean is there any likelihood we're going to see a surprise here? Is there anything that we can divine from the tea leaves that you all are sifting almost daily that would suggest a dark horse, an underdog, a surprise winner?

CROWLEY: Well I can just tell you that we talked to Joe Biden yesterday, who was talking about a good strong fourth. So I don't think that there are a lot of people here, the candidates themselves who see that suddenly Bill Richardson or Joe Biden will become first or second in the Democratic race, but as you know, it's not just first that counts in Iowa.

If you do better than expected, and it's possible for Bill Richardson or Joe Biden to do better than expected, you know then they can go on. But I don't think any of these candidates, I mean obviously the real mystery here, what we don't know is on the Democratic side who will place first, second or third. It could be any permutation of Edwards, Obama and Clinton. And on the other side, it could be Romney, it could be Huckabee, so the mystery is higher up this time, if you will.

DOBBS: All right, Candy. Thank you very much. Candy Crowley leading our coverage from Iowa. We thank you very much.

As news organizations focused on Iowa, the Bush administration was announcing a major development in the controversy over the destruction o those CIA video tapes. The video tapes, of course showing harsh interrogations of two suspected radical Islamist terrorists. The Justice Department today announcing it will launch a criminal investigation into the destruction of those tapes to determine whether any laws were broken. Congress has already begun its on investigation of the case.

Coming up next here, much more on the battle for Iowa, also a blunt warning, we will have it out for you, and the best political team on the trail where candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, a special look at how the caucuses work. All of that and more coming right up here on LOU DOBBS TONIGHT.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Rising concerns tonight that communist China may sell American technology to rogue regimes in both Iran and Syria. This comes after an investigation by a leading arms control group, that group finding that some Chinese companies with access to key American technology also have close ties to China's military.

Christine Romans has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Since the massacre at Tiananmen Square, it's been illegal to sell American military technology to China. Others so-called dual use technology requires a license from the Commerce Department to ensure legitimate commercial exports don't help China's military. The Commerce Department recently allowed five Chinese companies a fast track around the usual certification process, but a new report by Arms Control Advocate, the Wisconsin project finds two of the companies have ties to China's military.

GARY MILHOLLIN, WISCONSIN PROJECT: We're just increasing the risk that our technology is going to help either China increase its military capability or it's going to find its way into the hands of the Syrians or Iranians. ROMANS: According to the report, the program as it is being implemented gives Chinese military parent companies the ability to gain access without an export license to virtually unlimited quantities of American products in categories that have long been restricted because of their potential military use. The Commerce Department hailed the program as a balance between national security and increase trade.

MARIO MANCUSO, COMMERCE DEPARTMENT: Each of the companies, the five companies that were granted the use status, including the one you just mentioned, one unanimously approved by the U.S. government, the inner agency including the Department of State, the Department of Defense with support from the intelligence community.

ROMANS: He called the five companies trusted customers.

PETER LEITNER, DEFENSE INDUSTRY ANALYST: By assuming they're so- called trustworthy companies in China is based upon a complete ignorance at how the Chinese do business internally and how they mix the civilian and military economies so they're basically indistinguishable from each other.

ROMANS: Even as some Chinese companies are no longer required to get export licenses, the overall list of restricted exports is growing.

BILL REINSCH, NAT'L FOREIGN TRADE COUNCIL: If you ask my members, which are large multinational companies that make and export these things, they're unhappy because they think that the regulation is being tightened.

ROMANS: In fact, he would like to see more Chinese companies allowed fast track status.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS: But the Wisconsin Project wants the Commerce Department to immediately suspend this fast track for certain Chinese companies and it wants a full review before any more companies are added to the list, the concern that American technology could be used against the United States in any military conflict with China -- Lou.

DOBBS: This is precisely what we've been warning about on this broadcast for literally years here. It's one of the things that the U.S. Economic Review Commission has been working very hard and studying and bringing to the attention of the American people. Why in the world -- why is this administration so absolutely indifferent to these concerns?

ROMANS: Some observers say that it's because they're increasing the number of things that have to be export controls and that allowing a back door to appease the Chinese and multinational companies in this country who want to sell more high technology to China regardless.

DOBBS: There is in my judgment no better example of the issue of elitism and indifference to the welfare of the American people on the part of this administration on this exact issue. Because they're really saying that it doesn't matter what laws you pass, it doesn't matter what the national values and the national interests are, we're going to decide in this case, as on so many issues, whether it's illegal immigration or border security outsourcing, off-shoring production that simply we're so wise that we'll make these judgments.

And there won't be transparency and there won't be straightforwardness. This administration, people talk about George Bush's legacy, his legacy will be deceit, dishonesty, and in my judgment absolute, absolutely disregard for the national interests and for the common good. And that's not the kind of legacy one would think that even this president would want to have, any possibility that there will be a change in the approach?

ROMANS: The Commerce Department says if there's any derogatory information about any of these the companies they will be re- evaluated.

DOBBS: Well here's some derogatory information about the Commerce Department and hopefully they'll start evaluating the way they do business because they're there to serve the American people, not corporate America. Christine, thanks very much. Christine Romans.

Well a deal that could give communist China American military secrets could face tougher scrutiny for a change by the federal government. The "Financial Times" reporting that the committee on foreign investment in the United States, CFIUS, is extending its investigation into a propose buyout of 3com by Bain Capital and a Chinese corporation with ties to Beijing's military. The deal worth more than $2 billion, the committee reportedly extending the investigation by 45 days, 3com supplying technology, of course, to our Defense Department.

Time now for some of your thoughts; Jim in New Hampshire said, "Dear Lou, I've been watching your show for two years, and every day I'm more impressed with your insight, tenacity and resolve to fight for and protect the interest of the backbone of our country, the middle class. Your exposure of wasteful government programs, dangerous lapses in our national security and the ongoing tragedy in Iraq and Afghanistan gives us all a glimmer of hope that we can eventually end this insanity."

Jim in Colorado said, "I just finished reading "Independents Day" and agree totally with it. My question is if all the presidential candidates are still willing to cave in to special interest, elitist philosophy, how do we find someone who will represent us? Thanks for your hard work, keep it up and you are being joined by more of us each day."

Thank you and yes, more and more people are signing up as independents. By the way, every single candidate running for their party's presidential nomination is starting to take notice.

Alan in Wisconsin said, "Lou, may you and your staff have a very Happy New Year. And go Independents."

Yes and happy New Year to all of you. We'll have more of your thoughts here later in the broadcast. Each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a copy of my new book, "Independents Day: Awakening the American Spirit". It's the book that corporate America, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party certainly don't want you to read.

Coming up next, the Iowa caucuses just 24 hours away; we'll have more from the campaign trail. That means cold icy windy Iowa. And rising pressure on Senator Hillary Clinton; should she have just skipped Iowa? We'll hear from Carl Bernstein and our distinguished panel political analysts.

And a disturbing new report showing this nation's factory workers facing a bleak future and it may be too late to turn things around in the minds at least of some. We'll examine that in our report coming up next.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Let me say Happy New Year one more time before we get to more developments already in this young year.

Today another setback for our middle class as the price of a barrel of crude oil hit $100 for the first time ever. Supply concerns driving the increase, communist China, other nations dramatically increasing their demand for oil as global competition for commodities increases.

The high cost of crude oil of course is not the only threat to this nation's working men and women and their families. American workers continue to lose ground, real wages are dropping, factory production is down. As Bill Tucker now reports, there are new concerns, and rising concerns tonight on whether American manufacturing can ever, ever recover.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): U.S. manufacturing appears to be in trouble. There was a sudden unexpected downturn in production last month. The news comes only two weeks after President Bush warned of some economic trouble on the horizon.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I fully understand the pinch some of your folks are going feel. And having said that, this economy is pretty good, definitely some storm clouds and concerns. But the underpinning is good.

TUCKER: But from 1997 through 2006, manufacturing output in this country fell. At the same time, imports from foreign manufacturers rose more than 58 percent and factory employment declined, falling from January of 1997 to 14 million in December of 2006. Sectors that lost ground included telecom hardware, aircraft engines, semiconductors, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals.

ALAN TONELSON, U.S. BUSINESS & INDUSTRY COUNCIL: The question of whether we can pull out of this nosedive is really the $64,000 question because the faster our manufacturing base shrinks the less capacity we have to generate the output.

TUCKER: Dave Frengel represents a broad alliance of companies lobbying for reforms in trade policy.

DAVE FRENGEL, PENN. UNITED TECHNOLOGIES: They're losing, not because they're not doing the micro economics right, not because they're doing innovation and you know lean manufacturing, but because they've been cheated, because they're competing against subsidized imports.

TUCKER: Workers feel the pinch too, not only in a lack of job security but in their paychecks, a fact that even ardent free trade economist Paul Krugman recently conceded in "The New York Times".

Quote, "It's hard to avoid the conclusion that growing U.S. trade with third world countries reduces the real wages of many and perhaps most workers in this country. Those who are worried about trade have a point."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCKER: And those in the manufacturing sector worry that as output declines and the shift to foreign manufacturers continues, America will lose its next edge, which is the innovative edge because as one manufacturer put it, Lou, you can't innovate if you don't have something to innovate.

DOBBS: Yeah and Paul Krugman, a well respected economist ideology, a liberal, but acknowledging that you know the reflexive nonsense of a free trade at any price, those days are over. It's to me stunning to see those numbers, the reaction on the part of the Commerce Department, this administration, to continue, do they simply say -- I mean to hear George Bush say the underpinnings of the economy are great. There are storm clouds on the horizon. And I understand the pinch that some people are in, but everything is fine. I mean what in the world are people to make of a statement like that by the president of the United States?

TUCKER: Well you know, Lou, you coined the phrase faith-based trade policies. That's a lot of what this is. People believe fair trade is good. They ignore the evidence. They ignore empirical facts that are put in front of them and say no, no, no, it's OK because it has to be OK.

DOBBS: The fact is today we're looking gold at a 28-year high. We're looking at a new record for the euro against the dollar at an all-time low against the euro, falling against most other major currencies, nearly all of them.

We're looking at crude oil. It -- sitting right at $100 a barrel. This -- and we've got candidates in Iowa, presidential candidates seeking their party's nomination talking about nonsense and blathering instead of dealing with the real issues that are going to shape this country for decades to come. I can't for the life of me figure out what is taking people so long to come to terms with the reality that is literally crushing the prospects for prosperity, and for the middle class dream in this country.

TUCKER: Middle class -- medium-sized manufacturers will tell you they've known this reality all along. Dave Frengel says we know this is a fact. Coalition for Prosper America says it's a fact. It's bad out there. But, you have the international manufacturers who are saying, no, everything is fine. It's OK.

(CROSSTALK)

DOBBS: Oh believe me, I know that. The National Association of Manufacturing absolutely concentrating a Web site to me because they don't like my criticism of their -- of what I consider to be absolutely Neolithic policies. It's their way or it is anything but the American way. And it's a tragedy that we've reached this state. And these candidates have got to begin to deal with that reality. But that means of course upsetting a lot of their contributors, those who donate to them, of course the orthodox is they've signed onto. Bill Tucker, thank you very much.

We're going try to find some better news for everybody here tonight, I promise, but first, a dubious milestone. And I'm saying to the producers right now find some good news. We need it. It's a new year, a dubious milestone for free trade advocates.

The last trade barriers between the United States and Mexico under NAFTA expired yesterday. President Bill Clinton signed NAFTA; of course it was implemented 14 years ago. Since then, NAFTA hasn't lived up to the promises of its supporters, either north or south of the border, and the greatest disappoint of course for those in Mexico and in this country who have just simply lost their jobs.

Coming up next, as the presidential campaign intensifies, there's already speculation about which of these candidates will survive the early primary decisions. We'll be talking about that with three of the country's best political analysts.

Also, Senator Clinton apparently takes a swipe at me. She says that I'm full of hot air on the issue of illegal immigration. Well I'll have a few thoughts and perhaps breathe a little life into her thoughts on illegal immigration.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg says he doesn't agree with me on anything? Mr. Mayor, I respectfully contend that you are incorrect, at least in one instance. We'll have all of that, a great deal more coming up next.

Stay with us. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: More presidential candidates are responding, beginning to respond to voter frustration over the issue of illegal immigration. They're presenting their own plans to fix our broken borders but not all of the presidential hopefuls are welcoming a debate about the tide of illegal aliens coming across our brooders. As Louise Schiavone reports now, Senator Hillary Clinton says my concerns on the issue of illegal immigration are just all that hot air as she put it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Illegal immigration, despite all the talk and all the promises, it's the unfinished work of this congress and this president.

PRES. GEORGE W. BUSH, UNITED STATES: It's in the nation's interest to get a comprehensive bill done. I believe we can get it done.

SCHIAVONE: There never was a final bill or a signing leaving states and localities to do what Washington could not.

MARK KRIKORIAN, CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES: The activity to regain control of the immigration situation needs to come from federal and state and local levels.

SCHIAVONE: Last year, nearly 300 measures became law in 46 states. Iowa voters prepare to the nation's first to judge the candidate, the issue is alive.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People here illegally are going have to get in line with everybody else.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We will say no to sanctuary cities.

SCHIAVONE: It's ranked second as a concern among republicans only behind the economy in the latest CNN Opinion Research Corporation poll in Iowa. Although polls indicate it's less important to democrats, candidates have had plenty to say about it.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're not going be able to solve it if we're just shouting about it like Lou Dobbs and folks on television.

SCHIAVONE: This week, Senator Hillary Clinton leveled this apparent swipe at CNN's Lou Dobbs.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There are even some commentators who are doing well for themselves by making this a hot issue but ask yourself, does all that hot air solve anything?

SCHIAVONE: That so called hot air did generate enough heat to help crush what both sides considered to be a flawed immigration bill not just last year but two years in a row. It helped derail a highly controversial effort in New York to give driver's licenses to illegals.

(END VIDEOTAPE) SCHIAVONE: As you know well, voters is this year are looking for leaders not unlike the commentators that have shaken off Washington's paralysis. Voters know the problems borne of illegal immigration. Lou?

DOBBS: It's fascinating to see Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama otherwise intelligent and generally respectful people decide to take me on this issue. The motivation I can't imagine because both people in point of fact have modified their views considerably over time.

SCHIAVONE: They evidently believe according to the polls that the issue of illegal immigration really doesn't matter to the democratic base. As you say, it's an interesting assumption that people in general don't care about the economic costs, the crowded classrooms and hospital rooms.

DOBBS: I think that what both candidates will discover on this issue is that the left wing of the liberals in the Democratic Party in the primary process support illegal immigration just as the right wing of the conservative element of the Republican Party supports illegal immigration for entirely different reasons. By the way, the candidates that pander to both extremes, are, as far as I am concerned, abject fools. They will pay a price for it in the general election when they have to answer to the great center of the country. Louise, thank you very much; Louise Schiavone reporting from Washington.

Senator Clinton, I'm just so hurt. We can talk about that later.

That brings us to the subject of our poll. Our question is, do you believe presidential candidate who support open borders, illegal alien amnesty, the outsourcing of middle class American jobs to cheap overseas labor markets are full of "hot air"? We would like to hear from you. Yes or no, cast your vote at loudobbs.com.

As promised, we do have some good news to share with you tonight. I want to thank Kevin Berk, our entire production staff. This broadcast reports regularly on states taking matters in under hand when the federal government fails. Tonight, we can tell you that 31 states have enacted new laws headlined by fighting illegal immigration. Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma have laws going into effect to punish employers that hire illegal aliens, those employers the chief reason that we have illegal immigration and a crisis in it in this nation. So far the state with the strongest law is the state of Arizona and reports that no employers have been charged yet in Arizona. For a full list of all of the laws, go to our website, LouDobbs.com.

When it comes to the presidential campaign, many consider Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York to be a possible candidate. I was a little troubled by the way to hear that the mayor was saying something I didn't quite understand. He told "Wired" magazine, "Somebody asked me about Lou Dobbs who I don't agree with on anything." Asking about the presidential race and my potential candidacy, Bloomberg also had some advice for me. He said, "Should he run? If he wants to." We'll put aside the issue of whether the two of us will run. In my opinion, I believe we both believe that giving driver's licenses to illegal aliens is wrong. We also agree that the current two-party system is not working to serve the American people. I suspect that's the reason he's an independent. We both believe that independent voters should play a decisive roll in national, state and local politics, certainly this year.

Up next, I'll be talking with our contributor Carl Bernstein who says maybe Senator Clinton should have skipped Iowa all together.

And Rudy Giuliani all but ignored Iowa. Will his strategy pay off for him in other states? We'll find out. We'll continue in just one moment. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Presidential hopeful Senator Clinton leading the national polls in the run for the white house. There's a danger that the stumble tomorrow would have a broader impact on her presidential aspirations. Carl Bernstein, he's the CNN contributor who authored the book, "A Woman in Charge, the Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton." Carl, glad to have you here.

CARL BERNSTEIN, AUTHOR, "A WOMAN IN CHARGE": Good to be here.

DOBBS: She should have skipped Iowa?

BERNSTEIN: It's a good discussion have.

DOBBS: You think she should have skipped Iowa?

BERNSTEIN: I think the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire is vastly exaggerated. I think we should have a real primary system that gives much less attention to the two states. It could derail her candidacy. At the same time, it could send her on the way to the white house. We don't know yet.

DOBBS: It's interesting. We have a number of polls, including a CNN Opinion Research poll, we have polls showing widely different results.

BERNSTEIN: They're a snapshot. It's the night before the vote. It's a caucus, not an election. It's obviously going be somewhat close. She cannot get a commanding percentage of the vote from what we're expected. She's not going to be able to get 40 percent.

DOBBS: Does the margin count here?

BERNSTEIN: Again, I think that all the conventional wisdom about this election is nonsense. It's the last hurrah of reporters that think Iowa is the be all and end all of the political process. What really counts is whether Obama or Hillary Clinton is going to capture the imagination of the voters and the surprise so far is that Obama is capturing the imagination in this particular place of so many voters. That's what's interesting. DOBBS: Interesting to me, I talk to folks, not a one of them, I'm going to say this, with the possible exception of Ron Paul, none of them have captured the imagination of folks around the country.

BERNSTEIN: I don't think that's true. I think --

DOBBS: I guarantee you that's true. I don't know if it's broadly reflective of truth.

BERNSTEIN: I think the Obama candidacy is very surprising.

DOBBS: What if he loses tomorrow?

BERNSTEIN: Let's back up. If three people come out bunched together, I don't think the results don't mean that much. They go to New Hampshire and then come to February 5th where 20 states have a lot of votes at stake. The really interesting thing is that the Clinton campaign has turned into a campaign for restoration. In a new forward to my book.

DOBBS: January 8th?

BERNSTEIN: January 8th the paperback comes out. It's the Clintons to the White House rather than a Hillary Clinton campaign.

DOBBS: You have Bill Clinton defending her and strongly supporting her.

BERNSTEIN: Of course he is.

DOBBS: Let me finish.

BERNSTEIN: Sorry.

DOBBS: You get one of those. That was it. At the same time, she says he won't be a part of a national security discussion in the white house.

BERNSTEIN: That's nonsense. The national security discussion that takes place that's important is between her and him that it's important. The niceties of this.

DOBBS: Wouldn't that be a disappointment in the restoration process? There are peculiar dynamics in that relationship, it seems to me.

BERNSTEIN: You would have to ask them about that. I think the real relationship is the country and the national Clintonian ride that we're on. A lot of people want the Clintons back in the white house. Her appeal is a good one. They beat the republicans twice. No other president since Roosevelt has been able to do that. Others in the country believe that the Clintons are pure evil personified. She's more interesting and that her acolytes or opponents or enemies would have you believe.

DOBBS: How about the folks that say three decades of Clintons or Bushes is enough to give any of us a belly ache?

BERNSTEIN: It's a very interesting argument. I think one of the reasons that she is having such trouble in this campaign is that there's an undercurrent of that as it becomes evident that Bill Clinton has come out save her campaign.

DOBBS: Quickly, Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, McCain, what is looking strongest in your opinion?

BERNSTEIN: The idea of Huckabee being a credible national candidate it seems to me is laughable. Once you get beyond those two states, he can't be the nominee of the Republican Party.

DOBBS: Why not?

BERNSTEIN: I don't think he's electable. He couldn't get many democratic votes. I don't think he can get a coalition of republican democrats that could win.

DOBBS: You think the Romney, Giuliani and McCain could?

BERNSTEIN: Not necessarily. I think they're in difficult shape. I have said for many months that the real underlying story so far is the faltering of Hillary Clinton's campaign and Mike Bloomberg and the fact he is probably going to run unless he sees that Obama has gotten the nomination and he would be a spoiler. Things are in place. He has a group of people that want to draft him, including Robb and Gary Hart. There's a lot of things going on under the surface here. We're going to have an interesting few weeks.

DOBBS: You want to go with me to Oklahoma?

BERNSTEIN: Sure.

DOBBS: Carl, thanks for being here. Good luck with the book.

BERNSTEIN: It's a biography. That's the thing to remember.

DOBBS: We're going make a note of that.

Up next, we're live in Iowa with the best political coverage. It's down to the wire there. The candidates with some last minute campaigning before the caucuses. John Edwards, the senator's bus has broken down during his marathon for the middle class tour. That's getting up close and personal with the middle class experience. We'll be talking to three of the best political analysts in the country. Stay with us. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Coming up, as we continue our coverage of the Iowa caucuses, Wolf Blitzer. Wolf with a preview. Wolf?

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Lou.

The countdown is now on to the crucial first contest of the '08 race. The Iowa caucuses now only 24 hours away. We have the best political team on television on the campaign trail with the presidential candidates. You're going find out how Iowa's unusual system really works. We'll show you the latest new poll numbers and a whole lot more. Please join me right at the top of the hour for our special, our countdown to the Iowa caucuses. Lou?

DOBBS: We'll be joining you. Three of the best political analysts in the country are here in New York with me, Michael Goodwin, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist, New York Daily News, democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf and Roger Simon, chief political columnist, politico.com, great to have you with us. I want to get to you right away. Get you warmed up. Are there any surprises as you can tell? Do you see a surprise coming anywhere?

ROGER SIMON, POLITICO.COM: If there's a surprise, it may be for third place. It looks like it's got be some order of finish between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. On the democratic side, she's it's hard to call it. It looks like you could make a credible scenario for Hillary Clinton, for Barack Obama or John Edwards, maybe John Edwards not as strong a scenario. If he comes in third, it really may be all over for him not as much as the other two.

DOBBS: Let me turn to the republicans. Michael Goodwin, Huckabee, Romney, is there -- do you see a great margin between the two?

MICHAEL GOODWIN, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: I don't. There seems to be movement toward Romney away from Huckabee but that may change over night. All the polls show a large number of undecideds. I think it's going to be very close between those two. Third place will be an issue. A strong showing by McCain would be terrific for McCain in New Hampshire where he's pulled even with Romney. Republicans have a different field because you have different winners in different states. That's going to complicate anyone getting the real momentum from these early states.

DOBBS: You heard Roger Simon's analysis. Do you see it as Roger laid it out?

HANK SHEINKOPF, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I do. I'm completely Iowaed out. I mean the idea that you could have 160,000 people telling this extraordinary country what to do all day long and then a bunch of people in your business Lou following them and trying to get them ...

DOBBS: We will be following them slavishly like the dogs we are, trying to bring up whatever we can to feast on in terms of political minutiae. Roger Simon, who has more than just a little experience at this, give us a sense, if you can, a role of the independent. In Iowa, independents outnumber democrats and republicans. What part do they play in this?

SIMON: It coup a huge part they play here. We concentrate a lot on the independents in New Hampshire. But they're a powerful force in Iowa, too. They can pick whatever primary they want. You fill out a ballot and go home. On the democratic side, it could take two or three hours. It tends to persuade people on a cold night, when the Orange Bowl is on, go vote maybe on the republican side.

DOBBS: That kind of structure in these caucuses, people say it's not fair, it's tough. I'm not disagreeing. But the reality is, it's an early indication. Maybe the nation is giving Iowa too much attention. But iota is giving the candidates a lot on of attention.

SHEINKOPF: I'm an admirer of Iowans of the amount of interference they've been through. Hillary Clinton has to come in close and tight. If she doesn't win in New Hampshire, she has a problem. John Edwards, doesn't score here, he's probably gone. On the republican wins, if Huckabee wins this thing, McCain looks better. People will move back to the center.

DOBBS: That's an intriguing idea.

GOODWIN: I think the Iowa process is fine as long as we keep it in perspective. It's a momentum play.

DOBBS: It's the beginning.

GOODWIN: It's not about the delegates. Even New Hampshire is not really about the delegates. All of January is about momentum. It's February when the delegate counts really start to mount. I think as long as we remember that, you don't have to win it all because you win Iowa, we're in good shape in understanding what's going on.

DOBBS: Roger, as you watch this in freezing, I can't tell you how much we appreciate you doing this, as you look at what's happening in that state, do you sense anything different than you have any other year in eye woo? We know it's the first campaign where it's wide open in 80 years. Is there a distinct difference you can assess?

SIMON: Absolutely. The feeling is palpable. There's never been anything like this. They only started in 1972, but maybe in the history of American politics. Such a close race between the three candidates on the democratic side and you can't call it on the republican side. The amount of money and time, the huge number of staffers and enormous number of volunteers working the phones and going door to door in Iowa is unprecedented. It's a frenzy. It's for real.

DOBBS: Roger Simon, Politico.com thank for braving the elements. Michael Goodwin as always the New York Daily News and Hank Sheinkopf, we thank you very much for sharing your insight. We look forward to seeing you sometime tomorrow. Thank you very much.

Still ahead, the results of our poll. You don't want to miss it. Stay with us. We're coming right back.

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DOBBS: Now the results of our poll. 95% of you say that presidential candidates that support open borders, illegal alien amnesty are full of hot air.

Time for some of your thoughts. Stay tuned. "Thank you for fighting for our rights. Pointing out the corruption is a breath of fresh air. We're now independents." Thank you. And all independents, we love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts. Each of you whose e-mail is read here gets a copy of my book, the book that corporate America and the democrat and republican parties don't want you to read. Our coverage continues right now with Wolf Blitzer.

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