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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Polls Close in Florida

Aired January 29, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Wolf.
Tonight most polling places in Florida have just closed in the high stakes primary election there. All polling places will be closed within the hour. We'll have results for you coming up. We'll be live at all the candidates' headquarters, the latest on the Democratic presidential campaign, all the day's news, and much more straight ahead here tonight.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Tuesday, January 29. Live from New York, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening, everybody. Voters in Florida are turning out in huge numbers for what is likely to be a turning point in at least the Republican presidential race. Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney spent the day fighting for last-minute votes in the primary. The winner of today's primary goes into next week's so-called Super Tuesday contest as the front-runner of the party.

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani tonight is fighting for survival in his presidential campaign bid. Giuliani staking virtually his entire campaign on Florida's primary, but opinion polls suggesting Giuliani has virtually no chance of winning. We'll have complete coverage of that, as well as the latest on the Democratic presidential campaign.

Is President Bill Clinton toning down the rhetoric? Did Senator Obama snub Senator Clinton? We begin tonight with Dana Bash in Miami covering the Republican primary -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, there are 57 delegates at stake here tonight, by far the biggest price so far in the Republican race. That's why on TV, on radio, and in negative calls to voters, the two men vying for the top spot have been fighting it out to the bitter end.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH (voice-over): At a polling station in St. Petersburg, one last chance for John McCain to convince Florida Republicans their security matters most and Mitt Romney is not their man.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The real key I think here in Florida is who can keep America safe, who is it that has got the experience and background and knowledge to take on the challenge of radial Islamic extremism. Governor Romney has no experience there.

BASH: In nearby Tampa, Romney said the struggling economy trumps all else, closing the deal as the businessman who can help warning McCain cannot.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One of the candidates out there running for president said that the economy is not his strong suit. Well, it's my strong suit.

BASH: The biting personal jabs, evidence of Florida's high stakes. The winner likely the GOP front-runner, but for voters asked to choose between one candidate for the economy and another on national security, it's not that simple.

BUNNY COLLINA, UNDECIDED REPUBLICAN: For myself it's the economics. I do believe the war is also, you know, a deep consideration.

BASH: Cue Rudy Giuliani.

RUDY GIULIANI (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm the only one that's also managed an economy and been able to take it through a crisis.

BASH: But after putting all his eggs in Florida's basket that was a bowl of Raisin Bran and deflected questions about whether a dismal finish will bring his demise.

GIULIANI: I'm not going to deal with any hypothetical questions. It would be counter-productive to do that. We're going to win today.

BASH: As for Mike Huckabee, he isn't expecting a strong Florida showing, yet used a voter handing him a (INAUDIBLE) to take a primary day swing at a rich rival.

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I wouldn't know -- which -- let's see -- do you hold this end or...

(LAUGHTER)

HUCKABEE: It will be like Mitt Romney eating fried chicken, right?

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: But the fight for momentum out of Florida really is between Mitt Romney and John McCain. And for John McCain, if he does well here, if he wins here, not only would it perhaps make him the front-runner, it also could put to rest some of the questions about whether or not he really does have appeal among conservatives in his own party. And if Mitt Romney wins here, it could reset the race for him, but also make it clear that he has by far the most delegates so far, and of course that is what you need to get the Republican nomination. Lou? DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much, Dana Bash.

As Florida voters went to the polls, Mitt Romney accused John McCain of supporting policies that are neither conservative nor Republican. Mary Snow with the Romney campaign now reports from St, Petersburg. Mary, what is the mood tonight in the Romney camp?

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Anxious, Lou. You definitely get the feeling that it is going to be a nail-biter and the only prediction being made here is that it is going to be a very close race. Mitt Romney's campaign believes if he can win here, they believe he could be the nominee. But there's a plan B. They say if he does not win, they believe that he'll have a strong enough showing here in order to go on to other states, but the Romney camp believes that the economy helped Mitt Romney's candidacy here. They said he picked up momentum, but they believe in their view that it was hurt in the past couple of days by this bitter fighting with Senator John McCain -- Lou.

DOBBS: The bitter fighting, it is becoming sort of the characteristic of both campaigns, Democratic and Republican. Anything particularly unique about the -- as you described it, the bitterness in the Republican contest between Romney and McCain?

SNOW: I'm having a bit of a hard time hearing you, Lou, but the crowds are winding up here. But in terms of that bitterness, the Romney camp believes that, yes, it could hurt him, because it took his message of the economy off track. Instead that fighting became the centerpiece in these last couple of days.

DOBBS: Mary, thank you very much, Mary Snow reporting from St. Petersburg. We'll be hearing more from her and Dana Bash throughout not only this broadcast the evening. Rudy Giuliani tonight is optimistic about his prospects in Florida, despite some opinion polls that show he's lagging far behind both Romney and McCain.

Dan Lothian following the Giuliani campaign reports now from Orlando. Dan, the Giuliani campaign, the optimism is strong this evening, as we approach the total closing of all polls in Florida, as was earlier in the day?

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Lou, they do remain optimistic. In fact, all they've been talking about all day long and into the evening is winning, winning, winning. Whenever he is pressed about the poll numbers, he points to New Hampshire and he says, look, going into New Hampshire, everyone thought that Obama was going to win. He was way ahead of Hillary Clinton there, and then look what happened. He's also hoping for that big surprise here, so he's not pulling back. He's not talking about stepping down out of this race. He really believes that he can win, and he's even talking about moving forward going to California, taking part in the Republican debate there. Lou?

DOBBS: All right, Dan, thank you very much, Dan Lothian with the Giuliani campaign. Democratic presidential candidates in Florida are taking part in what some commentators are calling a beauty contest. That's because the Democratic Party is holding a primary without the blessings of the National Democratic Party, and the Democratic National Committee says those votes simply won't count. State Democrats defied the national Democratic leadership and advanced the date of their primary.

Senator Clinton is, however, expecting to win this primary and she'll be in Florida tonight hoping to boost her national campaign with a victory celebration. Senator Barack Obama today dismissed reports he deliberately last night snubbed Senator Clinton. Obama's remarks follow pictures that Obama with his back turned toward Clinton just before President Bush's State of the Union address. Tonight Senator Obama is in Kansas where he picked up another key endorsement. Suzanne Malveaux reports now from Kansas City.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Lou, obviously the Obama camp is trying to build on the momentum from the Kennedy endorsement. There's a new ad that's been released today, all the major cities, New York as well as Los Angeles. And all of those cities obviously trying to gain the momentum and the attention of the Kennedys, but all the buzz is about what happened last night.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX (voice-over): The headline was all about the so-called snub, this picture of Senator Barack Obama turning away from Senator Clinton, as Ted Kennedy, Obama's new best friend and key endorser extended his hand. The moment captured and dissected, reflecting the atmosphere of high tension and drama in the campaign. Today Obama denied any sleight, saying he was distracted by another senator.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So in me turning away, I was turning away, because Claire asked me a question as Senator Kennedy was reaching forward.

SEN. CLAIRE MCCASKILL (D), MISSOURI: It was not a snub. I had a ringside seat. It was one of those -- it was one of those accidents that just happened, and caught on film. Frankly, you know, everybody's spoiling for a fight.

MALVEAUX: Out of Washington and on the road, his first stop, his grandfather's hometown of El Dorado, Kansas, where he picked up a key endorsement from its governor.

OBAMA: We're among friends here. We're family.

MALVEAUX: Not just a trip down memory lane, but for strategy. Kansas is one of several Republican-dominated states he's targeting to convince Democrats he can compete where others have traditionally failed.

OBAMA: We'll have to bring not just Democrats, but Independents, and some Republicans together into a working majority.

MALVEAUX: Obama dismissed Senator Clinton's strategy of recognizing Tuesday's Florida primary, where delegates won't count.

OBAMA: It's a beauty contest (INAUDIBLE) in terms of where people currently are at in Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: And Lou, Obama is going to be heading to Colorado as well as Arizona, really trying to build support beyond his base, going to new voters, Independents, Republicans, that's why you'll see hit hitting some of the states with the smaller delegates, they realize that every single delegate is really going to count when it comes to this. And clearly this is going to go on for months. That is the assumption here. Also, wanted to mention as well, Caroline Kennedy, that ad being released, a television ad, major cities across the country, obviously trying to capitalize off of the kind of Kennedy and the Camelots and all the excitement from yesterday -- Lou.

DOBBS: And any word from the Obama campaign on whether or not they would like to push for Florida's delegates to be awarded on the basis of tonight's vote?

MALVEAUX: Well, we certainly asked him about that earlier today. They say they're sticking with their position that those delegates' numbers will not count out of Florida...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

MALVEAUX: ... so they're going to stick to that position. Obviously it's one that would benefit them if Obama does not win in Florida, which is expected. Lou?

DOBBS: Thank you very much, Suzanne Malveaux with the Obama campaign.

Coming up here next, more on the Florida primary, results beginning to come in. We're live at the campaign headquarters of Mitt Romney and the other Republican candidates. We're expecting first results, soon. Also charges about right (ph) corruption and criminal behavior in the mortgage crisis that's devastating working men and their families across the country. Christine Romans will have our report -- Christine.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The FBI has opened criminal investigations into 14 companies for potential sub-prime mortgage fraud, probing insider trading and accounting fraud -- Lou.

DOBBS: Thank you, Christine. Christine will have that report upcoming.

And a Chicago church again breaking immigration laws giving another fugitive illegal alien sanctuary. We'll have that special report, tell you what the government is doing or not doing. Stay with us. We're coming right back with the latest for you from Florida.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) DOBBS: A Chicago church has once again projecting itself into the center of the national debate on illegal immigration, defying federal law, giving sanctuary to yet another fugitive illegal alien. This is the same church that gave sanctuary to illegal alien Elvira Arellano who lived there for a year with her American born son. Casey Wian has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Six months ago, criminal illegal alien Elvira Arellano was arrested and deported after publicly claiming sanctuary in Chicago's Adalberto United Methodist Church for a year. Now the same church is offering sanctuary to another fugitive illegal alien, a friend of Arellano's, Flor Crisostomo.

FLOR CRISOSTOMO, ILLEGAL ALIEN (through translator): I believe with all my heart that Mexico and the United States needs to change the system.

WIAN: Immigration and Customs enforcement says Crisostomo left her children in Mexico and illegally entered the United States to work in 2000. She was arrested in 2006, along with more than 1,100 other illegal aliens during ICE raids at 40 IFCO Systems plants that make pallets.

REP. CYNTHIA SOTO (D), ILLINOIS STATE ASSEMBLY: She's a single mom here without her children. You think that she wants to leave them behind? She's here because she wants to support her children.

WIAN: An immigration judge allowed Crisostomo to voluntarily leave the United States by January 2007. She filed an appeal, which was denied and she was ordered to surrender by Monday for deportation. Instead, she sought sanctuary in the church, a concept not recognized by U.S. law. ICE said in a statement that Ms. Crisostomo will be taken into custody at an appropriate time and place with consideration given to the safety of all involved.

EMMA LOZONO, CENTRO SIN FRONTERAS: No one should think that Flor came here for an adventure and came all the way to Chicago because she likes the climate. She came to feed her family.

WIAN: Lozono's husband, Walter Coleman (ph), is pastor of the church. An ICE spokeswoman said the couple may face consequences as well, because it's a federal crime to harbor a fugitive illegal alien.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WIAN: We asked ICE if they now plan to go after church officials and activists who harbor illegal aliens. A spokeswoman would not comment other than to say that ICE prioritizes its enforcement actions based on national security and public safety -- Lou.

DOBBS: I think one could easily make the case that ICE rather readily and convincingly could make the case that ICE simply lacks the manpower and the resources to do its job properly. It works hard at what it can and has handled -- I mean they handled the Elvira Arellano case I thought perfectly. There were no difficult scenes, you know she sort of resolved it herself, if you will. This is frankly a publicity stunt, is it not?

WIAN: Absolutely it's a publicity stunt. These supporters of illegal aliens and the illegal alien herself, they're basically daring ICE to come into this church and arrest them. They know that the public spectacle might win them some sympathy in some quarters, as you saw with that state lawmaker who is perfectly willing to accept the law-breaking of these people -- Lou.

DOBBS: Yeah and the reality is that this church has become something of a signpost for radicalism of its own. And the consequences I think should be carefully judged by ICE. As I said, I think they have done a tremendous job in handling a difficult situation, and I really believe that every American who watches this spectacle understands all the more clearly these issues and the motivations of the people involved, and so to that end, I think we have got to give the government in this case very high marks for constraint and reason.

WIAN: Absolutely.

DOBBS: Thank you very much, Casey Wian.

Since her deportation, you might be wondering, Elvira Arellano continues to push for amnesty for illegal aliens in this country. Arellano went on a hunger strike in Mexico City last November, trying to bring attention to her demand for amnesty for millions of illegal aliens in the United States. She also joined a pre-Christmas protest at the border with the United States, where she and others prayed for amnesty. Arellano told a Mexican newspaper she would attend a Mayday amnesty march in Washington, D.C. It's certainly not clear by any means how, as a departed felon, Arellano would plan to reenter the United States without arrest.

It turned out to be certainly a bad day for a group of suspected illegal aliens who were making their way through Phoenix today after being smuggled across the border. The minivan in which the 11 illegal aliens were riding rear-ended two vehicles on Interstate 10 in Phoenix and one of the vehicles hit the one it hit in fact directly in front of it carried officers of the Federal Protective Services, an arm of the Department of Homeland Security.

An Immigration and Customs spokesman tells us the FPS officers who were checking for injuries became suspicious when 11 people were in the van and his -- he called for assistance. Maricopa County officers and ICE agents responded. The 11 suspected illegal aliens taken into custody. They're being held and processed for removal from the United States. Talk about bad luck.

Next, we'll bring you initial results from today's Florida primary. That's coming up here in just a few minutes.

The FBI has opened a criminal investigation into 14 companies who have a role in our mortgage crisis. We'll have the latest for you. And the criticism may have hit home, was it a kinder and gentler President Bill Clinton on the campaign trail today or was it very good politics or both? We'll have the story and more. Stay with us. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: We are starting to get some results and as the polls are closing now in Florid, we're going to show you some early results that are less -- it represents less than one percent of the vote, but it may in fact be indicating to all of us what we have in store for us throughout the evening.

Right now, again with less than one percent of the votes in, Senator John McCain with 29 percent of the vote and former Governor Mitt Romney with 28 percent and talk about separation, the fact is that Rudy Giuliani is holding with 18 percent and Mike Huckabee also with 18 percent, again very early numbers, but it could be interesting and instructive about what we have in store for us throughout this evening.

And over on the Democratic side, where no delegates are at stake, but which -- you know, it looks pretty interesting at least in terms of the early results here, 58 percent of the vote again with less than one percent for Senator Clinton, and 21 percent for Senator Obama. So that is shaping up as sort of an interesting race. And it certainly explains why some of these other folks are calling that a beauty contest and Senator Clinton is preparing to celebrate a victory in Florida tonight. And we will keep you up to date on that. Wolf Blitzer and our entire election team is standing by to bring us the very latest throughout the rest of this broadcast and certainly throughout the rest of this evening.

The FBI today opened a criminal investigation into companies involved in our sub-prime mortgage crisis, the Federal Bureau of Investigation now looking into more than a dozen companies accused of accounting fraud and other possible wrongdoing. Christine Romans has now our report. Christine?

ROMANS: Lou, some 14 companies in the crosshairs tonight of an FBI investigation into mortgage fraud, an investigation that includes insider trading and accounting fraud, suggesting companies profited from the mess that has already led to more than two million foreclosures in this country.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS (voice-over): As foreclosure spread across the country, mortgage fraud complaints are skyrocketing, a result one FBI official says of quote, "good old-fashioned greed". The bureau is conducting criminal investigations into 14 companies and fielding more complaints than ever before. Suspicious activity complaints have soared from 3,000 four years ago to 48,000 last year and already this year on track for 60,000 complaints. FBI investigations into mortgage fraud are up 50 percent over the past year, the FBI only investigates fraud involving half a million dollars or more. JIM CARR, NAT'L COMM. REINVESTMENT COAL.: This foreclosure crisis really isn't a crisis of individuals taking advantage of the lenders, but really an industry that was so poorly regulated that it really allowed greed to just get completely out of hand.

ROMANS: The FBI says California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Ohio are among the mortgage fraud hot spots, but the problem is spreading nationwide.

ANDREW JAKABOVICS, CTR. FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: Let's not forget the average American homeowner who is really getting caught in the squeeze here, that they potentially who are caught in these fraudulent schemes have potentially no recourse if these companies have gone out of business or basically don't have enough capital on hand.

ROMANS: The FBI is not naming the companies under investigation, but this investigation suggests fraud pervaded the sub-prime crisis.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS: Either when a loan was written or later when homeowners fell victim to so-called foreclosure rescue scams and now, by companies themselves profiting potentially through accounting fraud and even insider trading, Lou, as some of these company executives knew that the sub prime loans that they held were almost worthless and so were trading on information, the FBI is investigating whether that happened.

DOBBS: Well the FBI has got a large, large project in front of it, because the scope of the criminality here is extraordinary by any historical standard that we've experienced. But it's good they have begun the process.

ROMANS: Indeed.

DOBBS: Christine, thank you, Christine Romans.

New reports tonight confirm what many middle-class Americans already know. American homeowners are deeply in trouble. Home ownership dropped by record numbers last year. The proportion of households that own homes fell to 67 percent, down more than a percentage point from a previous year, and foreclosures soared last year, up more than 75 percent. More than 400,000 families lost their homes last year; two million are at risk this year. In California alone, 66,000 people lost their homes to foreclosure.

The House of Representatives today passed that $146 billion economic stimulus package. The legislation was strong bipartisan support approved less than a day after the president called for quick action. Most taxpayers will be receiving rebates of 600 to $1200 once the Senate approves it and the president signs it.

Well, the bill is headed to the Senate where they are expected to refine the legislation, as they would put it, one proposal adding billions of dollars for senior citizens and the unemployed. The Senate plan would also cut the amount of those rebates and allow the nation's richest taxpayers, people such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, to collect the rebates as well. The House Legislation barred such rebates for the rich.

Up next, President Bill Clinton tries to present a kinder, gentler image on the campaign trail. We'll have that report, and Senator Hillary Clinton, she is headed to Florida. She will be there to attend a victory celebration in the Democratic primary, a primary the party's national leadership says won't count. We'll see.

And we'll have the very latest for you on the Republican primary. You're looking at Romney headquarters right now in St. Petersburg. We are looking at with less than one percent of the vote counted, and the results are starting to build. And we'll have an update when we come back, but showing right now Romney and McCain locked in a tight, tight battle in Florida, as expected. We'll be back with the best political team anywhere and a lot more. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: McCain and Romney locked in what is a tight battle in Florida tonight. Less than one percent of the votes still in but with those early numbers, we're going to Wolf Blitzer in our Election Center. He's got the latest results for us. Bring us up to date, Wolf.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: We're a little bit less than half an hour when all the polls, Lou, in Florida close, but most of the polls in the state are closed. Rights now with about one percent of the precincts in Florida for the republican reporting, John McCain and Mitt Romney, they're tied with 30 percent each. Look at the battle underway for third place between Rudy Giuliani with 18 percent, Mike Huckabee 16 percent.

Here are the hard numbers coming in as of right now. Remember it's only 1 percent of the precincts. 32,600 or so for McCain; 32,400 for Romney, Giuliani with 18, 800; Huckabee, 16,700; Ron Paul 3,500, very, very early but it looks like a fight is on the way if those numbers are indicative.

On the democratic side, this is not a fight for delegates, because the Florida delegates have been stripped of their delegates by the party because they moved up their primary. Right now as expected Hillary Clinton is way ahead with 53 percent to Barack Obama's 27 percent. John Edwards, 16 percent, this with three percent of the precincts reporting. She's got nearly 50,000 votes to almost 25,000 for Obama; 15,000 for John Edwards Mike Gravel, the former Alaska senator with 300 votes but Hillary Clinton with three percent way ahead.

We're going to stay on top of all of these numbers. Once the polls throughout the entire state close at the top of the hour, we'll certainly have more to report. That's it for now. We'll be on top of this story for you.

DOBBS: I know you will. Wolf, I have to believe that Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee is getting agitated because they're looking at Hillary Clinton. They know she's going to have a big celebration there tonight with this lead which seems insurmountable with one percent of the vote holds up. This is great fun.

BLITZER: She's coming in to Florida to celebrate, even though she wasn't allowed to campaign there. The other candidates couldn't campaign, they could fund raise in Florida, and they did, but they didn't campaign. But we're going to see how the Florida voters feel about all of this over the course of the next several days or weeks.

DOBBS: They snuck a couple of ads in, but that really wasn't campaigning, was it?

BLITZER: A little bit.

DOBBS: Wolf, thanks. We'll be looking forward to your report as soon as we have some new numbers and throughout the evening here on CNN.

That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. The question is, do you believe it's appropriate that both the republican and democrat parties have disenfranchised their voters in Michigan and Florida. The democrats say, to hell with both in both states, to hell with the delegates and not permitting them any kind of representation. Do you like that idea? Cast your vote at LouDobbs.com. We'll have the results later in the broadcast.

Up next, did Barack Obama give Hillary Clinton a cold shoulder? Did he snub her at last night's State of the Union Address?

And as the results come in from Florida, we'll be telling which issues are concerning voters the most in Florida. We'll hear what three of the top radio hosts in the country have to say about the primaries and this campaign to date. All of that and a great deal more still ahead. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Votes are coming in. We're getting 3 percent, 4 percent -- just about 4 percent of the precincts reporting in. And it is as tight as it can be, John McCain 33 percent, Romney 31 percent, and we'll have an update for you. We're going to Wolf Blitzer in the Election Center as we start to see any greater number of votes tallied up here.

Joining me, three of my favorite radio talk show hosts; in Washington, D.C., Joe Madison, WOL Radio, XM Radio. Great to have you with us, Joe.

JOE MADISON, WOL RADIO: Thank you very much.

DOBBS: In Chicago, Steve Cochran, WGN in Chicago, he's on the air, allowing us to join him. Steve, great to be with you.

STEVE COCHRAN, WGN RADIO CHICAGO: It's good for both of us.

DOBBS: Absolutely.

And here in New York, Mark Simon, WABC Radio. Mark, good to have you with us.

Let's turn to this poll tonight. Joe Madison, the democrats don't get to count it, they don't get any delegates down in Florida? What in the world?

MADISON: Autocratic and just setting themselves up for a fight. I was talking to Donna Brazile, trying to get her to education me after what do you do after Super Tuesday, after Wisconsin? You'll have to talk to Donna. I couldn't follow it. I did not --

DOBBS: One thing you can bet, Donna has the answer.

MADISON: I know she does, but, you know what? It's autocratic, it was stupid, and they've set themselves up for a big fight in Denver, I think.

DOBBS: Steve Cochran, do you believe for a moment that the democrats and republicans -- folks from Michigan and Florida will still there in that national convention and say, it's fine, just ignore us, two of the most important states in the country?

COCHRAN: Absolutely not because I know a lot of pushy people in Florida and Michigan, and they're not going to put up with it. But the system is broken. It's what Joe was talking about. You have a small number of states on the verge of knocking off possibly Mayor Giuliani, and a small number making a big decision. Can anybody explain the delegate thing? You have to know a secret handshake. You've got to know a password. It's an insane system and it needs to be fixed.

DOBBS: And these parties are acting like they're government organizations instead of partisan entities. Mark ...

MARK SIMONE, WABC RADIO: The reason you have these primaries, otherwise you would have these mole-filled back rooms at conventions, and the thinking is they would choose horrible cronies, but of course they chose some of the great presidents.

DOBBS: Those smoke-filled rooms did pretty well. You bring up a good point here, Mark. Since 1968, depending on who you want to talk to, I'm not sure we can point with pride to great presidents that have, you know, sort of graced the white house and leadership of the nation. What do you think, Joe?

MADISON: You know, they've had their moments, but the reality, if you're going back to the Roosevelt -- I meaning, I think Bush made a serious mistake yesterday in not giving us the future, you know, unemployment, more money spent to build the infrastructure in Iraq than at home, not including seniors in this. You know, you bring up Florida, Giuliani might as well now retire with the other New Yorkers in Florida, because he is through. So --

DOBBS: Did Joe Madison just take a shot at New Yorkers here? MADISON: I said "other New Yorkers." No although I'm for New England in the Super Bowl. That's my Super Bowl analogy. What a failed strategy. How dare you not be part of the playoffs and then show up in the Florida Super Bowl of politics and think you're going to win? You just blew it.

COCHRAN: I think that will be the story tonight if in fact he is done. He had a lot of awfully smart people who should have known better. This really has become a collection of who gets the most headlines, who creates the most buzz. You can't run around Florida and expect while others are collecting the headlines not to pay a price for that, but you have a million votes out there, at least, of absentee ballots in early voters. It will be interesting to see where they fall.

MADISON: And speaking of headlines, I mean whoever is running Obama's campaign, they know how to bundle the headlines, man, to come out of South Carolina, then to get the Kennedy's to support you, bundle that at American University at a big rally. I mean, he trumped the president's State of the Union speech yesterday.

COCHRAN: Yeah, he's hot.

SIMONE: Talking about these state of the union speeches, it's like analyzing the Golden Globe Awards. Who cares? It's irrelevant. I've gone back and looked at State of the Union speeches for 40 years, it's the same speech every year, and it never happens.

DOBBS: I thought it was interesting that -- that the shortest speech, in addition to George W. Bush's was his father's. Go ahead, Steve.

COCHRAN: I was just going to say for Mark, and apparently Lou you have done this as well, I think you both need to get out more, maybe see a movie, maybe get out and experience other things. It's a big world out there, fellows.

DOBBS: We're going to do our best to grapple with it, Joe Madison, Steve Cochran, thank you guys.

A reminder now please vote in our poll tonight. The question is do you believe it's appropriate that both the parties have disenfranchised primary voters in both the states of Michigan and Florida. Yes or no. Cast your vote at LouDobbs.com. We'll have the results here later.

Up next, polls in Florida closing in 15 minutes. Most are now. We'll have for you what's on the minds of voters in that state. With now 7 percent of the vote in, it is an extremely close race. We'll be looking at the importance of this primary with our panel of political analysts. Stay with us. We're coming right back. We'll have those results next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: In Florida now, 9 percent of the vote is in, and McCain with 34 percent of the vote and Romney right behind with 30 percent. It looks like we're going to have a very interesting battle over this evening.

I'm joined now by four of my favorite folks, political analysts and military analysts certainly here in New York, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist, "New York Daily News," Michael Goodwin. Syndicated columnist, Miguel Perez, good to have you with us, and one of the country's most distinguished military commanders and LOU DOBBS TONIGHT military analyst, General David Grange. Good to have you here. And in Tennessee, I just want to say ...

PROF. CAROL SWAIN, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: I'm forgotten.

DOBBS: Professor Carol Swain. I'm used to counting to three, partner. I'm overtaxing my intellect. Professor Carol Swain of Vanderbilt University, professor of law for political science, and the author of "Debating Immigration." It is great to have you here.

SWAIN: Thank you.

DOBBS: I'm going to make amends by starting with you first.

SWAIN: Out of sight, out of mind.

DOBBS: I hope it has nothing to do with my age, either, Carol. We have a very tight race. Do you think the voters in Florida and Michigan should be disenfranchised?

SWAIN: No, of course not, we know how much attention the democrats have spent discussing the disenfranchised voters in Washington, D.C., and that's one of the core issues that they talk about voters and their right to vote and the democratic process, so you wouldn't expect them to be the party that would disenfranchise anyone.

DOBBS: And Rudy Giuliani has said, Professor Swain, that the winner of Florida wins the nomination, do you agree?

SWAIN: No, not necessarily so.

DOBBS: All right. How about you, Michael?

MICHAEL GOODWIN, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: I think she's right, that it may not be determined for the republicans, because a close second by either McCain or Romney coming out of here keeps them both alive.

DOBBS: And as we look at they exit polls, one of the things to me that's absolutely fascinating, and I suppose expected, but also troubling, is the fact that the economy has supplanted the war in Iraq and its conduct as the number one issue for both parties. General Grange, what's your reaction?

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: The thing about the war in regards to the economic conditions of the country, is that it affects the economic conditions. War is expensive. So you have to tie it together. I think it's important that the candidates talk about the war in relation to the other requirements, like a good economy, a healthy economy and other issues.

DOBBS: It appears right now, Miguel, that John Edwards again is going to run third, with a significant victory for Senator Clinton in Florida. The import of that to the Edwards campaign, is it wise? Do you think it's to be expected, he will continue to be the third man in this race?

MIGUEL PEREZ, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Obviously he's hoping for a brokered convention, there's a good chance the way things appear right now that we might have one, and he wants to be the king-maker. He will have a good percentage of the delegates to be able to say, okay, it will be Hillary or Obama. So that's what he's running for now. I don't know if he's looking to be the next republican under one of those two, but he does have that power, he could have that power.

DOBBS: It looks as if Obama has said he doesn't want to be Hillary Clinton's vice president, giving her the cold shoulder at the state of the union address last night.

Go ahead, Carol.

SWAIN: Go ahead. I'm sorry.

DOBBS: That's all right. Go ahead.

SWAIN: I was going to say, I think the strongest ticket for the democrats would be Edwards/Obama, and for the republicans McCain/Huckabee, Huckabee/McCain, but they should all just pair up.

DOBBS: Well, with that we're going to come right back, professor with our panel. We'll be back in just a moment. We'll have the latest on today's high stakes republican primary.

John King is in the Election Center now, as we watch the results come in, John, what are we all looking for?

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the emphasis first on what we do know so far. They are very early results. Let's show you up on the board here. 10 percent of the vote counted in Florida, most of the polls closing at 7:00. With 10 percent counted, a very close race so far. Senator McCain leading in the early results but again, very early on in the night. Don't put too much stock in that.

What are we looking for? Senator McCain, Lou if he is to win, needs to do well down here. As you can see, this is why, Miami-Dade County area, still no results in at all. McCain has to do well here, do very well over in the Tampa Bay area where you have a high percentage of military veterans, and also up here in the Pensacola area. This is where John McCain learned to fly in the navy. He's counting on the military veterans in that area. Those areas in blue, key to John McCain.

If you're Mitt Romney, you need to win down here in southwest Florida. You see he's already running ahead in the early returns in Naples. He's down right now in Sarasota. That would be a troubling sign for the Romney campaign if that continues, but again it is very, very early on and the key conservative battleground, for Mitt Romney, you see he's winning around Jacksonville, but the people live here in the central of Jacksonville, that is critical. And right here in Orlando this is a key area for Mitt Romney. He needs to run up some numbers, Orange County here, just below Orange County, this is a key county to watch, perhaps the impact of the Mel Martinez endorsement This is your non-Latino/Cuban vote right here. It's very early on, most of the populous areas down here in the Miami area, over here in the Tampa and Orlando as well have yet to report, so a long night we expect ahead. And we'll watch these key areas as all goes on. Lou?

DOBBS: John, thank you very much. John King will be following the results very carefully with analysis.

Up next, we'll be back with more from our panel. Stay with us. We'll have the results of that poll. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: We're back with Michael Goodwin, Michael Perez, General Grange, and Carol Swain. Miguel, you've been thinking about what you watched in that State of the Union Address.

PEREZ: I was keeping count of all the standing ovations, people sitting down, pretending to look interesting. It was amazing how divided this Congress is. That's why they're not able to do anything. It was clear from that speech how the republicans were giving the president standing ovations several times and the democrats were trying to, you know, twiddling with the booklet they were handling, trying to look busy, but it was very obvious they don't agree on anything.

DOBBS: Your reactions?

GRANGE: I think there should be a unity of purpose when you're working in a government position and representing the American people, there are some things that people should get together on for the better of this nation.

DOBBS: You mean like race, gender? All of the issues bubbling to the surface here? In some cases doing more than just bubbling to the surface.

GOODWIN: I they we all hope that's what this election will bring, an end to the divisions and partisanship in Washington and really traditionally that's ...

SWAIN: And how would that happened?

GOODWIN: That's what elections are supposed to do. They're supposed to end a fresh start and people from both sides come together.

DOBBS: Professor Swain?

SWAIN: It just seems to me I don't have a whole lot of hope that will happen with any of the candidates, because it's so ingrained, the types of behaviors that you can predict from democrats and from republicans. It will take something to just really shake up the system I believe before we go beyond that. People have lost sense of a national interest and reason to come together.

DOBBS: Miguel, watching the Hispanic vote issues and the Latino vote with the imprimatur of Senator Kennedy now, the impact for Obama?

PEREZ: I think it will have an impact especially in California and out west with the Hispanic vote. Let's remember that the overwhelming majority of Latinos have early on jumped on Senator Clinton's bandwagon. Some of them are beginning to regret it, because Latino voters, a lot of them, are for Obama. The leadership wants one thing, and a lot of Latinos are supporting Obama. Now you have Kennedy jumping in and he -- the Kennedy's have always had a tremendous following in the Hispanic community, and I think it will help Obama.

DOBBS: Miguel -- I'm sorry. Michael, Miguel says it will have an impact, do you agree?

GOODWIN: I do. I think the Kennedy is endorsement is important for a couple reasons. First the notion of the establishment getting Obama train now makes it more than just a youth movement and more than an insurgency. It makes it real, something big. It was important enough to say Clintons wanted it and fought against it. That's how important the Clintons saw it.

DOBBS: We're looking at live pictures of Senator Obama at a campaign rally in Kansas City. Professor Swain, you just heard Miguel and Michael. Your thoughts?

SWAIN: I think that Senator Kennedy's endorsement may help him with some voters, but it will hurt him in red states. I also believe that if Senator Obama doesn't get the nomination, that there will be a low turnout probably among blacks, young people, Hispanics, that it won't be good for the party.

DOBBS: And David Grange, we're going to give you the last word.

GRANGE: I would just like to see some candidate represent the United States of America, where we go to new heights, get to another stage of success. It's just very disappointing.

DOBBS: Thank you very much, gentlemen. I think we all agree with you.

The results of our poll tonight, 80 percent of you responding it's not appropriate that both the republican and democratic parties have disenfranchised voters in both Michigan and Florida.

Thanks for being with us tonight. CNN's special election coverage continues right now.

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