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Lou Dobbs Tonight
U.S. Policy toward Moscow at a Turning Point; Federal Government Fails to Secure our Ports and Borders; Energy Plan Stalled in Congress
Aired August 14, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: I wonder whose high-pitched voice that was. Suzanne, thank you very much.
Tonight U.S. policy toward Moscow appears to be at a turning point. Tonight we examine the policy options facing the Bush administration and our next president.
Tonight a plan to help working men and women pay for high energy and gasoline prices is stalled in Congress. And that may be a very good idea. We'll have the special report.
And tonight, disturbing new evidence that the federal government is failing to secure our ports as well as our borders. Violent drug cartels now exploiting gaping holes in port security. All of that, all the day's news and much more, from an independent perspective straight ahead here tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Thursday, August 14th. Live from New York, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening everybody. The Republic of Georgia tonight saying Russia now controls a third of its territory. Earlier, the Russian foreign minister said Georgia can quote, "forget about its territorial integrity", end quote. Russia is ignoring new demands by President Bush for Moscow to respect Georgia's sovereignty.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, however, saying the United States will not use military force to end Russia's aggression. We have extensive coverage tonight and we begin with Michael Ware in the Georgia capital of Tbilisi.
You went to the front lines today. Michael, what is the latest on the Russian troop movements within Georgia?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the first thing to say is that quite frankly, for America, there simply is no military option. And that's precisely what the Russians are trying to show not just to the pro-American regime here in Georgia, but to other states here in this region.
They're trying send a strong message that Russia is back and America can't protect you. What we know is that in this offensive here in Georgia, Russia attacked on two fronts. First, securing two pro-Russian enclaves. But they were not satisfied with that. And they then advanced further into Georgia proper. Now this afternoon, we're at one of the front lines. At the furthest line of Russian advance. This is on the outskirts of the Georgian city of Gori. There I mixed with the Russian troops themselves and not only are they firmly in control, but they appeared comfortable and relaxed.
Why? Because they know that the Georgian forces, sponsored, trained and to some degree equipped by the U.S., have no response. We saw the Georgian forces lining the highway leading to the city of Gori and protecting the capital Tbilisi. They're a rag tag bunch who have rallied together as best they can after the initial Russian onslaught.
But to be frank, they are no match for the Russians and the Russians know it. Now despite promises to leave the city of Gori by the end of today, Thursday, when I left shortly before dusk the Russians were making no signs of movement. Meanwhile, on the western front, the Russians, despite previous denials, it appears certain now that they occupy the important port city of Polti (ph).
Now what we've learned is that earlier this evening, about 100 Russian armored vehicles were seen pushing south from one of the other pro-Russian enclaves towards that port city. Perhaps to reinforce the troops already there. Bottom line is the Russians are here, they're consolidating their positions even within Georgia itself beyond the enclaves. And they know and the Georgians know that there's nothing that anyone, including America, can do about it -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much. Michael Ware reporting from Tbilisi, Georgia.
President Bush today repeated his demand that Russia honor the cease-fire agreement he signed with the nation of Georgia. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivering the very same message to Moscow, but Russia tonight defies the United States. Elaine Quijano has our report from the White House -- Elaine.
ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, on a day when President Bush was originally scheduled to head to his Crawford ranch in Texas, President Bush instead traveled to Langley, Virginia to CIA headquarters for a briefing on the situation in Georgia.
The president said a number of people of course are analyzing the situation on the ground. And that they're briefing officials on the different possibilities that could develop in the area and in the broader region. Now the president of course has sent his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France where she met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy (ph).
She's now going to go head to Georgia bringing with her a cease- fire agreement negotiated by the French president to be signed by the Georgian leader. Now Secretary of State Rice is set to return to the United States this weekend. And she's expected to brief President Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas Saturday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Looking forward to hearing firsthand what she has seen, what she has heard. And my call of course is for the territorial integrity of Georgia to be respected. And for the cease-fire agreement to be honored.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUIJANO: Now one loophole on this new deal, the agreement gives Russian peacekeepers the right to stay inside South Ossetia and allows Russia to enforce quote, "additional security measures in a limited area beyond South Ossetia". Now a senior State Department official tells CNN that specific language needs to be toughened up so that Russia doesn't simply use it as an excuse to continue military occupation deep inside Georgia. Officials say that the French government is currently working on that agreement -- Lou.
DOBBS: Elaine, is there some concern within the White House tonight that the president and indeed the United States government looks weak, impotent in the president's demands that Russia respect the territorial integrity, the sovereignty of Georgia with Russian troops occupying a third of the nation. That's bizarre.
QUIJANO: Yes, the White House certainly vigorously pushed back against the notion that somehow the U.S. has been caught flat-footed on this whole situation. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino saying that this situation in Georgia simply did not develop just overnight. That tensions had been existing there for some time.
But the fact of the matter is the United States, it was just on Friday you'll recall when President Bush was attending the Beijing Olympics as all of this was developing. There was a good deal of discussion between President Bush and former president, now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin about this very situation.
Despite President Bush's tough statement over the weekend and leading up until now, Prime Minister Putin went ahead and traveled to the border region there. Certainly does not make the United States look like they have a lot of options. Officials continue to say they are meeting and continuing to discover what other possibilities they might have to try and pressure Russia.
But it simply doesn't like as though there's any movement here in site. We'll wait to see what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has to tell President Bush over the weekend in Crawford -- Lou.
DOBBS: Elaine, thank you. Elaine Quijano from the White House.
Moscow tonight insisting its troops in Georgia are not breaking the terms of the cease-fire agreement. Russia says its troops are simply securing Georgian military instillations. Russia's ambassador to the United Nations saying Russian troops are also protecting what he calls the will of minority groups in Georgia.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VITALY CHURKIN, RUSSIAN AMB. TO UNITED NATIONS: There is a question of defact (ph) to control of territory. Of course all this comes up when the territorial integrity is coming up. And there is the question of the will of the people, of (INAUDIBLE) South Ossetia to subscribe to one or other arrangement in terms of their relationship with Georgia.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The ambassador also refusing to acknowledge Russia violated the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation. Russia is also furious with another former Soviet bloc tonight. That country is Poland. Poland today agreed to join the U.S. Missile Defense System after months of refusing to sign the deal. Russia's invasion of Georgia perhaps, perhaps helping change Warsaw's mind.
The United States has a similar defense agreement with the Czech Republic. Poland will now allow the United States to base missiles interceptors on its territory in return the United States will help Poland modernize its armed forces.
More strong words on Russia's invasion of Georgia today from Senator John McCain. Senator McCain has already called for a complete re-evaluation of the U.S. relationship with Russia. Today McCain said Russia's invasion of Georgia is a reassertion of Moscow's imperial ambitions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My friends, we have reached a crisis, the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War. This is an act of aggression. And historians and time will tell us how provoked it was. What actions the Georgian government took, et cetera, but the fact is that this aggression has far exceeded any, any provocation that might have been inflicted on South Ossetia or Abkhazia.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Senator McCain there talking in the key battleground state of Colorado. We'll have much more on this and what Senator Obama is now saying about the invasion of Georgia here later.
Turning to the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. military today saying three coalition service members have been killed. The military did not say whether those service members are American. Ten of our troops have been killed in Afghanistan so far this month; 488 of our troops have been killed in Afghanistan since the war there began; 2,329 of our troops wounded; 1,461 of them seriously.
Up next, energy policy stalled in Congress. Is that a good thing? Why can't our elected officials come up with a energy bill that would actually help American working men and women and their families.
Our nation's ports remain exposed and vulnerable. Our Department of Homeland Security refuses to do everything in its power to secure those ports. We'll have the stunning report next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A new Congressional report further confirms what we've been reporting to you here for years that our ports remain wide open to terrorists and drug traffickers. The Government Accountability Office reporting that drug cartels are now exploiting gaping holes in port security as well as border security. And the fact remains that seven years after September 11th, less than five percent of all cargo entering this country is actually inspected. Lisa Sylvester has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): U.S. Customs agents confiscated a huge stash of drugs last month at the Miami airport, 1,700 pounds of marijuana smuggled on a cargo ship from Aruba, a street value of $3 million.
HAROLD WOODWARD, CUSTOMS & BORDER PROTECTION: They focused on some containers that were brought in recently, made sure that we did a physical exam.
SYLVESTER: But according to a General Accounting Office report, many more shipments of drugs get through U.S. ports. Up to 1,000 metric tons of cocaine are believed to be smuggled into the United States every year from places like Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean countries. But the Department of Homeland Security could be doing more to keep drugs out of the United States, says the GAO.
DHS has a program called the Container Security Initiative that screens for weapons of mass destruction. The same technology could be used to search for drugs. But according to the GAO, DHS has not routinely used its program of targeting and scanning cargo containers overseas to detect elicit drugs. One homeland security analyst says it is a tool that should be utilized.
JAMES JAY CARAFANO, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Security initiative in conjunction with intelligence sharing, in conjunction with good investigations to kind of run the network to ground, that's the best way to deal with the drug smugglers.
SYLVESTER: Congressional lawmakers are criticizing DHS for not doing more to protect the homeland. Representative Duncan Hunter in a statement saying quote, "The reluctance of DHS to screen cargo containers for illegal narcotics when it already possesses the technology to do so presents an enormous challenge to our counter narcotics efforts. We must effectively utilize the resources we have."
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: The GAO in its report recommends that the Department of Homeland Security do a review to see how feasible it would it be to expand the container security initiative to scan cargo for illicit drugs. But that request was turned down. DHS says the initiative was intentionally created to address weapons of mass destruction and that to broaden the program would be inconsistent with its mandate to secure the international supply chain from a potential risk of terrorism. In other words, Lou, they are saying that they can't do the two things at the same time -- Lou.
DOBBS: And they're what 22 agencies, just about $40 billion budget and they are incapable of providing either security for our borders, our ports, fighting an effective battle against illegal drug traffickers. I mean the failures of the Department of Homeland Security will be one I think of many legacies of this president. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Lisa Sylvester.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight: Do you believe there is any rational reason for our borders and ports to remain wide open seven years after the terrorist attacks of September 11th? We'd like to hear from you on this. Yes or no. Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results later.
Security at our airports also being questioned for the second time in two years. Dozens of illegal alien workers have been arrested at Dulles International Airport outside Washington. Most of the 42 illegal aliens worked on construction projects at that airport. Those arrested included citizens of Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru, and Mexico. They are all scheduled to be deported.
The state of California is in the grip of a severe financial crisis. The city of Los Angeles, however, spending more than $1 million of federal taxpayer money in Mexico of all places. Los Angeles residents, many of them angry over the city's plan to spend $1.6 million at an international fair in Guatelhara (ph), Mexico next year. That money is a grant from the National Endowment for the Arts, a federal program. The Los Angeles City Council insist no state or city dollars will be used to attend the international fair, so to them that makes sense.
Another example today of how the sanctuary city of Los Angeles condones illegal immigration. The Los Angeles City Council approving a new law that forces home improvement stores to build day labor centers for illegal aliens. Those stores must provide shelter, water and bathrooms. Day laborers who were in the Council chamber, cheered as that vote was taken. And the vote was unanimous. City Councilman Eric Garcetti (ph) called the decision an example for the nation. Home Depot -- they did not say which nation -- Home Depot says they shouldn't be forced to pay for the facilities and is protesting the new rules in Los Angeles.
Time now to update you on our count of the number of illegal aliens who have turned themselves in for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. A new program calling for voluntary deportation of illegal aliens. This is the tenth day of the federal government's operation scheduled departure program. Tonight we want to bring you the number of illegal aliens who have turned themselves in, and we are -- well unfortunately the number hasn't changed much. The number remains at six illegal aliens. Now there are eight days left in this program, so there's plenty of time to get that number I think into maybe all the way up to triple digits. We'll continue to update you on the progress of the program right here each night.
Still ahead, the Obama and Clinton camps say they found a way to unite at the Democratic National Convention. Three of the best political analysts will tell us what the heck they think they're doing.
And Republicans threatening to shut down the federal government unless Congress can come up with an energy bill. We'll tell you whether they should or the shouldn't and what will happen to us if they do. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A bipartisan group of senators, now they call themselves are you ready -- the "Gang of 10". Tonight that "Gang of 10" -- because they're bipartisan, it would be two gangs of five, have a plan to break the stalemate in Congress over energy policy. But there are critics and those critics say the plan of the Gang of Ten will do little if anything to give any relief to middle class families. Bill Tucker has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Members of the self proclaimed "Gang of 10" are hoping that some time back home with voters will convince their Senate colleagues they need to take action on energy. Five Republicans led by Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and five Democrats led by Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota put together an energy plan just as Congress was getting ready to go on summer recess. Yet even some supporters like the liberal think tank Center for American Progress say there's work to be done.
DAN WEISS, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: This group of senators made a very valiant start to putting together a comprehensive clean energy plan. So they get an A for effort. Unfortunately, the plan lacks a lot of measures that would quickly reduce oil and gasoline prices.
TUCKER: The plan would allow for limited offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and 50 miles off the coast of Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, if those state legislatures approve. The ban on drilling in the Alaskan Natural Wildlife Reserve would remain.
A program to recycle used nuclear fuel rods would be implemented to reduce waste storage and to encourage the development of nuclear power. The stated goal of the plan, to have 85 percent of all new vehicles on the road in 20 years to run on non-petroleum-based fuels. The cost of the program is estimated at $84 billion. It would be funded largely by the elimination of tax breaks to the oil industry. And that's where the plan loses the support of the industry.
SARA BANASZAK, AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: It's difficult to sort of open up new areas for our oil and gas exploration and production, but tax the companies that are supposed to invest in these areas. The outcome is not likely to be the positive that the American consumers need.
TUCKER: Presidential candidate Barack Obama sort of supports it saying he likes the tax platform but doesn't like the offshore drilling so much. Presidential candidate John McCain says he will wait and see. He likes the idea of offshore drilling but isn't keen on the tax platform.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid calls it a good start, but doesn't publicly support it. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seems more inclined to support it now that she says she doesn't totally opposes offshore drilling, but she's not endorsing it either.
And the Republicans, well they are now threatening a shutdown of the government unless Congress takes up some sort of energy legislation, any legislation, even competing plans it seems, Lou, when they come back in September.
DOBBS: This plan is idiotic -- they -- both of them. Those two gangs of five, Republicans and Democrats, have got to understand what they're talking about is utter nonsense. It is complete and utter nonsense.
TUCKER: Well what's amazing, Lou, is like they got in a room and they said, OK, Lou, you don't like these things. Bill, I like these things. Let's just put them all together in one little package...
(CROSSTALK)
TUCKER: ... and we'll call that bipartisan.
DOBBS: You know, the idea that the Republicans would shut down government because this Congress hasn't come up with an energy policy. You know the Republicans need to just shut up. They need to shut up. The Democrats are doing them favors right now.
Republicans need to just shut up. Because the last thing these Republicans need is for these Democrats to awaken to the need to do something. This was the Democratic Congress that was going to you know replace that do-nothing Republican Congress two years ago. They're just as incompetent and foolish as the Republicans, so far. Thank you very much, Bill Tucker.
Well home foreclosures soaring in the month of July, the number of foreclosures up more than 180 percent to last year. One out of every 464 homes was receiving at least one foreclosure filing in July. The number of homes, by the way, in foreclosure exceeding 55 percent from a year ago.
Home prices plunged in the second quarter nationwide. The median price of a home fell nearly eight percent. And the government today confirming what millions of middle class families already know. Prices of basic goods rising at the fastest rate in nearly 20 years.
Let's take a look at some of your thoughts. John in Florida: "I just changed parties. I'm now an Independent. Thanks for keeping America informed of the travesty called our government."
And Manana in Massachusetts said: "Hi, Lou, I would like to thank you for your very objective comments and thorough understanding of the war in Georgia. I'm Georgian and even tiny mistakes in the interpretation of the topic hurts immensely."
And Jane in Florida: "The Catholic Church, which has continually pandered to the Hispanic Community and the 'illegals' is getting a taste of its own medicine when it is sued by Hispanic parents for expelling students for speaking Spanish. Maybe now they will come to their senses and support legislation mandating English as our official language."
We will have more of your thoughts here later.
Coming up next, Russian defiance continues in the face of U.S. calls for a cease-fire. One of the world's leading authorities on Russian foreign policy joins us.
And bracing for a showdown at the Democratic National Convention. New developments tonight in the fight for the party's nomination.
And will suspected criminals cast the deciding votes at those conventions? Some of the delegates have less than stellar records. We'll have that story and more next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion. Here again, Mr. Independent, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: The Democratic Party could well be headed for a showdown at the national convention, 11 days from now. Obama and Clinton staffers today agreeing to place Senator Clinton's name in contention at the convention. It's a decision not fully formed at least in terms of the public explanation. It's one, however, that is supposed to be uniting the party. But as our Bill Schneider now reports, the strategy could backfire.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D-NY), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I happen to believe that ...
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hillary Clinton says her supporters are looking for catharsis at the convention.
CLINTON: We do not want any Democrat either in the hall or stadium or at home walking away saying, well, I'm just not satisfied. I'm not happy.
SCHNEIDER: Clinton's name will be placed into nomination. And her delegates will have the opportunity to vote for her.
KEATING HOLLING, CNN POLLING DIRECTOR: The Obama campaign and Clinton folks put on a joint statement or this which makes it seem like they've struck some sort of a peace deal.
SCHNEIDER: will the vote make the party look united or divided.
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: If Hillary Clinton's name is called and she walks to the stage or we hear some kind of a roll call and we have Barack Obama supporters booing. That's not what the Democratic Party needs.
SCHNEIDER: If the Florida and Michigan delegations have their votes are restored, something Obama now says he favors, and if the superdelegates hold fast for Obama Clinton should get about 37 percent of the votes. That's why superdelegates were created.
HOLLING: To make sure that the pledged delegates, the regular delegates had some sort of adult supervision.
PRESTON: Clinton will have the chance to get to the stage and tell all of her supporters thank you for helping me make the cracks in the glass ceiling that's above our heads. We almost made it. Barack Obama is the nominee. Let get behind Barack Obama.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (on camera): If this is a showdown, it's a scripted showdown. Just like in the movies. And we know how it's supposed to end -- Lou?
DOBBS: We do indeed. A couple of questions if I may, Bill. The number of pledged delegates for Obama and Clinton, they're not separated by much.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. The number of pledged delegates are not separated by much because the number of voters is not separated by very much. Now they are pledged delegates. But here's a little secret.
DOBBS: That was actually my point. And that being the case, it becomes a clear, one of the clear results of this in that convention will be that this is a brokered nomination whether the brokering place in advance of the convention or not. That can't be to the advantage of the Democratic Party.
SCHNEIDER: Well, the superdelegates are clearly holding fast for Obama. They're going to make him the nominee. A lot of people would say nobody elected them. They are not pledged to support anybody. They can vote any way they please. They're clearly going to vote for Obama.
DOBBS: All right. Bill, thank you very much, Bill Schneider.
Well, some elected officials plan to take part in their party's convention despite being indicted or even under investigation for felonies. Among them, Detroit's Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. He's a Democratic superdelegate supporting Senator Obama. Kilpatrick is charged with conspiracy, perjury, obstruction of justice and misconduct in office. The mayor been planning to attend that convention.
But an Obama spokesman says Kilpatrick is not wanted there. A judge today lifted a travel ban on him but later, a second judge reimposed the ban. Imagine if you are Mayor Kilpatrick about right now. At least five Democratic lawmakers are under investigation for corruption. All of them are superdelegates. One of them, Congressman William Jefferson has already been indicted. Jefferson is planning to be at the convention.
The Republican Party does not convey superdelegate status on its congressmen and senators. Seven Republicans lawmakers are under investigation on corruption charges so that may have been a very good idea on the part of the Republican Party. Two congressmen, Congressman Rick Renzi and Senator Ted Stevens, have been indicted.
Well, newly released FAA control tower tapes tonight contradict the FAA's initial account of the incident involving Senator Obama's aircraft last month. The senator on his way from North Carolina to Chicago when the plane developed mechanical problems. The plane went on to make a landing in St. Louis, that time, the FAA said that the pilot had not declared an emergency. That safety was never a factor. But audio tapes obtained by ABC News show that an emergency was declared 41 seconds after the pilot discovered a problem with some of the plane's controls.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: At this time, we would like to declare this an emergency and also have CFR standing by in St. Louis.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Medix (ph) 8683, I will show that and would you do you have a preference on run ways, Runway 30 Right or Runway 30 Left?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Which one is the longest?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Medix 8683, Runway 30 left.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK, we would like 30 left. Just for informational purposes, we have Senator Obama onboard the airplane and his campaign.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Medix 8683, roger that.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
DOBBS: The FAA finally acknowledged that its initial statements about no emergency being declared and safety not being an issue were wrong. They did not make that admission, we should point out, until they were contacted today by ABC News.
Joining me now for more on what we can expect at the Democratic and Republican convention, let's not leave anyone out, three of the best political analysts in the country.
CNN contributor, "New York Daily News" columnist Errol Louis, Errol also host of the morning show on WWRL in New York City.
CNN contributor, syndicated columnist Miguel Perez, and in our Washington, DC bureau, Beth Frerking who is senior editor at politico.com. Good to have you with us, Beth.
BETH FRERKING, POLITICO.COM: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: What are the Democrats thinking here? And do you think they are thinking well?
FRERKING: Well, I think that what you're getting here is the Obama campaign making sure that those supporters of Hillary Clinton, the die hard supporters, a lot of angry people at the end of the nominating process are going to be on board for him, working for him, voting for him. Gets out there and getting friends and family to vote for him.
I still run into these folks. I ran into one this weekend at a B and B in the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And she said she only recently got over Hillary not getting the nomination. She's going to vote for him now. But I think that exactly who they're playing to in letting her name go on that first ballot.
DOBBS: Is there any risk here, Errol, in your judgment?
ERROL LOUIS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: A great deal. This is the old Democratic circular firing squad. Assembling, handing out the am in addition. They're trying to tell us it's really just blanks. Oh, really? A lot of people may not have gotten the message. What they've really done is created division and disunity as the major story for all 10,000 reporters going into that convention. They've already lost control of their main message.
DOBBS: Here we are as we approach the convention, 11 days way. The Democratic party is rife with dissension over gender, over race. And the director of its own convention ...
LOUIS: Don't forget class!
DOBBS: Class. You're absolutely right. What in the world is going on? Miguel?
MIGUEL PEREZ, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I'm not falling for all of this. I think it might be a showdown, but an orchestrated showdown. This convention is choreographed. It will be choreographed.
DOBBS: I love conspiracy theories.
PEREZ: The Obama and the Clinton people, we're going hype this up, we in the media are going to hype this. Could there be major controversy. And they're going to come out of the convention, they're all going to sing "Kumbaya" together and we're all going to fall for this trap and we're all going to say, oh, they're united. LOUIS: So you're saying we shouldn't expect the Clintons to maybe think about pulling a fast one?
PEREZ: No, the Clintons are very ambitious. They want to come back in four years or eight years from now, but they're not stupid.
FRERKING: That's right. I have to say I agree with Miguel on that, Lou. I think that this is very choreographed. I think they know exactly what they're doing. I think what you will see is Hillary Clinton, if there is any dissension beyond that ballot vote, she's going to put the hammer down and she's going to say to people, I want you in line, and I want you to vote for the nominee. And the nominee is Senator Obama.
DOBBS: One question. Why hasn't she done it yet?
FRERKING: Well, I think she wanted exactly what she's getting now. And that is a roll call vote. You saw the tape and her talking to her supporters. There's a loft people out there that want that catharsis. I really think that's it.
DOBBS: Does everyone on this roundtable truly believe that the Clintons have zero, zero possibility of wresting this nomination from Barack Obama.
LOUIS: I think it's considerably higher than that. To hear Bill Schneider say there's an estimate of maybe 37 percent of the delegates are going to go their way. If I'm an advisor to Hillary Clinton and a die-hard, loyal supporting, I'm thinking, OK, we're at 37 percent, where do we get the other 13, 14 percent?
DOBBS: You don't think some of her strategists would be thinking like that, surely?
PEREZ: It's over and it has been for quite a while.
DOBBS: Because there's so little at stake here. After all, folks have spent just $1 billion on the process.
We're going to take break. I want to ask this esteemed group of insightful political analysts to tell us exactly who is coming out ahead in -- as between Senator Obama and Senator McCain on the issue of the Russian invasion of Georgia. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: We're back with Errol Louis, Miguel Perez, Beth Frerking. Beth, let me ask you, does it seem to you that it's a bad time for Senator Obama to have chosen to go on vacation and leave the stage to John McCain on the issue of the Russian invasion of Georgia?
FRERKING: Certainly. I think he's probably wishing the timing had been different. This is a sweet spot for John McCain. He's looked extremely authoritative, he's looked very relaxed and confident whenever he's spoken about this. And I think that's obviously to his advantage. On the other hand, I think probably Obama is, by saying less, that's probably more for him. This is an issue that he's not as experienced as John McCain on this.
DOBBS: Do you agree, Errol?
LOUIS: Look, I think there's some problems for John McCain. I certainly don't buy into the hype that he's saying the right things. His top foreign policy adviser, until 90 days ago, was a paid client of the Georgian government. And that client is now calling in his favor, Saakashvili making statements what we need is action from John McCain, not just words.
He's expected him to pull his fat out of the fire. The mixture of public and private aims is not particularly attractive. Admittedly, Obama thought he was going to cede the stage not to this international crisis but to the Olympics and Michael Phelps. And as a celebrity he knows when the stay out of the spotlight.
DOBBS: That's all well and good. Why doesn't he have somebody on that campaign smart enough to say, senator, this is for real. You need the get out of the hole you have dug on the island of Oahu and get over in front of those cameras and start acting like the leader you want to be presumably. He has done nothing to time shift or alter his plans when the crisis is ...
LOUIS: I don't know if he or any of the elected leadership of the Senate or anybody wants to step into George Bush's shoes now and try to figure out this gigantic mess.
DOBBS: Why? For crying out loud, Barack Obama has an entourage in tail into the Middle East and Europe. You're telling me now suddenly he doesn't want to appear presumptuous.
LOUIS: Look, helping George Bush out of a problem of his own making with his Soviet expert, Condoleezza Rice is not a Democrat's job. Somebody else is going to have to help him figure this out.
PEREZ: Where do I begin? Condoleezza Rice? Obama, I think, has a problem. Because McCain is obviously much more knowledgeable about international politics than he is and he gets to demonstrate this now. Every time something happens anywhere outside of the world, McCain steps up, and says I was there, I know the area, the turf, the people. Obama cannot say that.
FRERKING: I would like to add in on that. I agree with Miguel on that. Basically, and Lou, I think you're right. This is one of those times he needs to get off of the beach. He needs to come forward and talk about it. Doesn't mean he needs to say what McCain is saying. And I do think there are some issues as Errol was saying, in terms of the client, the lobbying.
Regardless, he does, I believe, need to say, this is what I think. Whether it's a message about diplomacy, whatever the message is, to kind of stand up and be counted. And who knows when they see that happen tomorrow. And tomorrow, obviously going to continue and the situation has not sort of stood down as some people predicted it might.
DOBBS: Errol, you are going to get the last word here.
LOUIS: I would repeat that. I would just repeat that. It's not the job of the democrats to figure out a problem that the Republican administration created and ignored. All kinds of warning signs that were clear for years that something like this was in the offing.
DOBBS: You think he's going convince the voters of that?
LOUIS: I haven't heard people saying, where is Obama? He'll save us. I don't think that's where people are on this particular crisis. People are trying to figure out the geography, figure out why we're in there and figure out what all this saber-rattling means and whether the cold war has started again.
DOBBS: I was wrong. Miguel gets the last word.
PEREZ: Naive what we see in Obama. McCain is not naive. Naive is what we see from George Bush, I looked into the man's eyes and I saw his soul. That is the perception that we get from Obama on this issue. McCain is a totally different person.
DOBBS: McCain is the one who said he saw a K and a G and a B in there. Beth you get the last word. I've been mistaken twice.
FRERKING: I just think the smartest thing for all of them to do is wait and watch. Talk about the concerns of them and the American people that were watching. I think the last thing we need is saber rattling given that we have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. And I think the smartest thing to do is be counted, be seen, but be very deliberate and considered in their remarks.
DOBBS: Beth Frerking, thank you very much. Errol Louis, thank you.
FRERKING: Thank you.
DOBBS: Miguel Perez, thank you.
Coming up at the top of the hour, THE ELECTION CENTER, Campbell Brown. Campbell, what are you working on?
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: We have a lot of politics, Lou, to talk about tonight. Hillary Clinton's name will be placed in nomination at the Democratic convention. We're going talk about that. See why some people, get this, actually believe that Barack Obama is the antichrist. We'll explain what's going on there.
Plus everybody in the newsroom was talking about this today. China is saying that the gold medal winning women's gymnasts are all at least 16 years old. Oh yes? Well, have you seen them.
Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta weighs in on that. It's all starting in just a few minutes -- Lou?
DOBBS: I love that. The idea that they're cheating with the younger athletes against the older athlete -- athletes. And now Obama is the antichrist. We just thought he was having a little problem here getting out on the stage.
This is going to a whole other level, Campbell.
BROWN: It gets better and better, Lou.
DOBBS: All right. Thanks very much, Campbell.
BROWN: We'll see you in a bit.
DOBBS: Please join me on the radio Monday through Friday for the "Lou Dobbs Show". Monday my guests will include Congressman Elton Gallegly. He says the way to eliminate the California state deficit is to end illegal immigration. Go to loudobbsradio.com for you local listings for the show on the radio.
DOBBS: Up next, Russia's invasion of Georgia. We'll be examining the geopolitical crisis with one of the world's leading authorities on Russian foreign policy.
And later, we'll be telling about the military implications for the United States. Our allies and the former Soviet Bloc nations. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Georgia's government tonight says Russian troops control at least a third of the nation. Russia still ignores demands by President Bush that Russia respect Georgia's sovereignty. Professor Michael McFaul is one of the world's leading authorities on Russia. Professor of political science at Stanford University and he joins me here tonight. Thank you for being with us, professor.
MICHAEL MCFAUL, STANFORD UNIVERSITY: Thanks for having me.
DOBBS: This situation, is it absolutely an impossible one for the United States to resolve or significantly influence?
MCFAUL: Well, impossible is too strong a word, and most certainly, we could have done a better job of helping to avoid it beforehand. But what do we do now? The key thing now is we have to get the Russian troops back to their pre-invasion places. You have to remember there were peacekeepers, Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, in Abkhazia. Now there are Russian regular soldiers that have penetrated as you just said and there's a big disagreement whether they want to go back to those original places where they were.
DOBBS: Our Michael Ware reporting from gory saying that the Russians appear to be consolidating their positions in western Georgia and seem to be making absolutely no move withdrawal to their pre- invasion positions, which would have been obviously on the Russian side of the border with the peacekeepers, the Russian keepers in South Ossetia. There is no at least obvious incentive for the Russians to withdraw in any way with control of ports, western Georgia and a corridor that takes them through to the Caspian Sea.
MCFAUL: You're absolutely right. And the diplomatic efforts that are underway, Secretary Rice now being very involved with the French and now on her way to Georgia, they're just affirming the facts on the ground that the Russians created. And they're playing hardball here. They do not want to go back, they want to create a new situation. If you listen to the Russian officials the way they talk about it, they talk about it as if this is their Kosovo, this is their Serbia. So they've now bombed Georgia, they've now weakened Georgia and eventually over time, they want to free South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian control.
DOBBS: And obviously, again, the principal threat are to those former Soviet Bloc nations which include certainly the Ukraine, Azerbaijan, the oil producing, the rich energy nations. What are the prospects for the Ukraine, for the Balkans, Azerbaijan?
MCFAUL: Well, they're very worried as you can well imagine. Just as there was a cyberwarfare against Georgia brought down all the Georgian government Web sites, same thing happened in Azerbaijan.
Ukrainians are extremely worried. You have to remember when Putin visited, and he wasn't really invited but just showed up at the NATO summit in Bucharest in April and he said privately, Ukraine does not exist as a country, something to that effect. In other words, warning NATO, you can't bring in this country because we have claims to some of that territory. So it's very troubling. And it's really a threat to the Western World. Are we going to do something to try to hold this back, and we don't have a lot of leverage. Let's be very honest about that. We've got very few levers we can pull in this particular crisis at least anyway.
DOBBS: And with this crisis, as it unfolds, neither NATO, the European Union or individually the United Kingdom, Germany or France appears to have the will to stand against the initiatives being taken by Russia. That looks to be a very dangerous, dangerous inertia that is gripping the entire region from Western Europe through Central Asia.
MCFAUL: I think you're absolutely right. And I think if you look in retrospect, it was that reluctance before which has helped to create this situation in two respects. First of all, it's absolutely clear to me, I've been following this for a long time and I've written this for years that we needed a negotiated settlement. We needed a senior diplomat to come in and negotiate, and we needed real international peacekeepers, not the Russians in these two places. And.
DOBBS: The so-called frozen conflicts.
MCFAUL: The so-called frozen conflicts.
DOBBS: Which is an absurd piece of nomenclature, one could imagine ...
MCFAUL: And we're paying the consequences for not having stepped up and doing those things ahead of him.
DOBBS: Well, thank you very much, Professor Michael McFaul. Thank you for being with us.
MCFAUL: Thank you for having me.
DOBBS: We'll have more on Russia's invasion of Georgia. We'll be talking with David Grange about the military implications for Europe, for the United States and Russia, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The Russian invasion of Georgia appearing to catch the United States by surprise to say the least, Russian troops quickly pushing back outnumbered, outgunned Georgian Army units. But that invasion also revealing some weakness in Russian military tactics. Joining me now, LOU DOBBS TONIGHT military analyst General David Grange.
Good to have you with us. Where did this -- how could this happen? Let me start with the intelligence issue. How can they move 350 Russian tanks across a border in a confined space in the Caucasus and not be detected by U.S. intelligence.
GENERAL DAVID GRANGE, (RET) CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I think we did know about it, Lou. With the information warfare that was discussed in the earlier segment, I think with the staging of that much armored force, we also have advisors in that country with our technical abilities overhead, I think we did know that something was getting ready to happen.
DOBBS: And with knowing that something was going to happen, let's move to what did happen. Are you surprised at the effectiveness, the efficiency, the mobility of those Russian armored units and certainly the airborne units of the Russian Army?
GRANGE: Well, I've commanded Russian airborne units in Bosnia and they are very good soldiers. But one thing: Russian units must do deliberate planning ahead of time to be able to -- to execute a plan that is phased to that detail. And second and third order effects that come from each piece and make a decisions. They don't do that -- in a no notice situation. They plan well out in advance and that was a deliberate planned operation.
DOBBS: Their weakness seems the inverse of the Americans, not planning sufficiently in advance.
(LAUGHTER)
GRANGE: That's true, but they do have a problem with adapting. I was a little disappointed in looking at some of the Russian troops that were out of uniform, undisciplined -- that embarassed me having commanded some of them before to be honest with you. But, yes, they show strength, but they also showed weakness.
DOBBS: And, to what degree do you think that -- we have learned anything -- to what degree has the Pentagon learned anything about watching the Russian military move so effectively, so efficiently, so quickly? GRANGE: Well, the strategic end all the way down to the tactical level -- but strategically, I mean, I'm not sure why we push NATO membership so hard. I mean -- we talk about the Kosovo thing, and yes, it was a payback for Kosovo. I believe that, that's correct. But what about what happened in Cuba with Russia -- in our backyard? Georgia is in their backyard. I mean, you almost expect them that strategically -- they have to do something.
DOBBS: Perhaps -- there is an ominous statement by Vladimir Putin, suggesting that Russia needs to renew it's relationship with Cuba -- reinvigorate it.
Thank you very much -- General David Grange.
Tonight's poll results: 98 percent of you responding that you believe there is no rational reason for our borders and ports to remain wide open seven years after September 11th.
We thank you for being with us tonight. Please join us here tomorrow. For all of us, thank you for watching. Good night from New York. The ELECTION CENTER with Campbell Brown begins right now -- Campbell?
BROWN: Thanks, Lou.
