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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Battle for Independents; Obama's Counter Attack; Democracy at Risk; Foreclosures Soar; New Illegal Employer Crackdown; Broken Borders
Aired October 23, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thanks there, Wolf.
Tonight the presidential candidates face off on the critical issue of taxes and spending. Three top political analysts will tell us which if any candidate is winning the argument.
And tonight's shocking new evidence of the scale of the foreclosure crisis. Will the government finally bail out families in danger of losing their homes?
And tonight Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff says this country is winning the fight against illegal immigration but Chertoff is ignoring the fact that our borders are still wide open; all that, all the day's news and much more straight ahead tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Thursday, October 23rd. Live from New York, sitting in for Lou Dobbs, Lisa Sylvester.
SYLVESTER: Good evening everybody.
Senators McCain and Obama today intensified their efforts to win the support of independent voters. Twelve days before election day, both candidates campaigned in battleground states that could determine the outcome of this contest. And once again taxes, spending and our weakening economy were at the center of the campaign. We have extensive coverage beginning with Dana Bash in Sarasota, Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A day long Florida bus tour that John McCain's campaign dubbed you guessed it, the "Joe the Plumber" tour. But Joe wasn't here. McCain instead sat with a group that included Tom the contractor and Richard the florist. Florida voters McCain aides said are concerned about tax hikes under Barack Obama though reporters were rushed out and not permitted to hear for themselves. All day McCain continued to use the Joe metaphor to pound Obama's tax plan.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whether it's "Joe the Plumber" in Ohio or Joe over here, we shouldn't be taxing our small businesses more as Senator Obama wants to do. We need to be helping them expand their businesses and create jobs.
BASH: But back on his bus, evidence that McCain's message about fighting for the average Joe has been muddled. Local reporters repeatedly pressed McCain about Sarah Palin's ardency (ph) finance $150,000 wardrobe which McCain was reportedly was unhappy about having to explain.
She needed clothes at the time. They'll be donated a the end of this campaign, McCain told reporters. Meanwhile, it's not just Obama that McCain is fighting in these final days. Increasingly, it is also George W. Bush. In an interview with "The Washington Times," a rapid fire attack on a slew of Bush policies.
Quote, "Spending, the conduct of the war in Iraq for years, growth in the size of government larger than any time since the great society, obviously failure to both enforce and modernize financial regulatory agencies, failure to address the issue of climate change seriously. Those are just some of them he finally joked."
Taking more decisive steps like that to separate himself from the unpopular president is something McCain aides tell CNN they wish he did long ago.
(on camera): To that end McCain even tried something rather surprising. He tried to link Barack Obama to George Bush. Reacting to yet another bad news jobs report from the government, McCain said Barack Obama's only answer is to quote, "double down on the Bush legacy of out of control spending" -- Lisa?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: Dana Bash with the McCain campaign tonight. Governor Palin today ignored questions about her wardrobe expenses and stepped up her attacks on Senators Obama and Biden. Palin blasting the Democratic ticket during campaign stops in the vital swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Palin once again highlighting comments by Senator Biden in the primary campaign when he said Obama is not ready to be president. Senator Obama today launched a counteroffensive against Senator Palin and Senator Obama (sic). Obama accused McCain of putting corporations ahead of workers. Obama making that charge in the traditionally Republican state of Indiana. Candy Crowley has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It is a telling measure of this campaign that 12 days before the election the Democratic nominee is in one of the most Republican states in the country.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How's it going, Indiana?
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CROWLEY: In this state that George Bush won by 21 points, Barack Obama trails John McCain by only five. Win or lose the fact that Obama showed up in the Hoosier state at this point speaks to a candidate with both time and money on his hands. Not to mention an issue that crosses state lines.
OBAMA: The Dow plummeted again yesterday threatening job security and retirement security and economic security for millions of ordinary Americans. Indiana lost 4,500 manufacturing jobs in September alone.
CROWLEY: Even as he flies high in the national polls and most of the battleground polls, Obama lands in every state urging his crowds not to let up and he doesn't either. Today he took issue with McCain for saying that every U.S. business should get a tax cut. McCain argues companies move overseas and take jobs with them because they get better tax rates.
MCCAIN: If they go to Ireland, they're only paying 11 percent, so where are they going to go where they can create wealth and create jobs. It's simple, fundamental economics.
CROWLEY: Obama calls that a Wall Street first plan.
OBAMA: But I say let's end tax cuts for companies that ship jobs overseas and give them to companies that are investing right here in Indiana, right here in the United States of America.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: That Indiana stop is the last time you will see Barack Obama until Saturday. He has gone to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother. He will return to the campaign trail Saturday in some other surprising states, Colorado, New Mexico, some of those interior West states that have been traditionally Republican that are now looking like they might turn Democratic this fall -- Lisa?
SYLVESTER: Candy, time is running out for Senator McCain. We're down to 12 days now. But on the other hand you know we've seen McCain. He's been behind before. We've seen him come back. What does he have to do at this point?
CROWLEY: Well, at this point there's not much you can do but keep on keeping on. They think and have said we believe that "Joe the Plumber" is sort of an icon of Main Street if you will, is having some resonance. That they're beginning to gather some of those middle class voters that are so important for any kind of victory.
But at this point it's really a strategic game. Where do you have to go to hold onto a state and where do you go to find the state? And in that latter category what McCain has done is kind of put a lot of his chips in Pennsylvania, which is a very tough state for him. So it is getting to the point where you cannot come up with an issue that's going to change people's minds within 12 days. You've got to go to those undecideds and convince them not just why they should vote for you, but in some cases why they shouldn't vote for the other guy.
SYLVESTER: Yeah and Candy, McCain focusing his efforts in Florida, trying to win that key state as well. CROWLEY: Absolutely.
SYLVESTER: All right, Thanks, Candy, for that report.
CROWLEY: Sure.
SYLVESTER: Obama's running mate, Senator Joe Biden today fired off a few more rhetorical forces on the campaign trail. Biden accusing Senator McCain of getting a little loose when he spoke to a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Biden suffered a brief memory lapse as he attacked his Republican rival.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN, (D-DE) VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ladies and gentlemen, on the most recent debate -- the most in about -- just about every day since John McCain has felt the need to declare and you heard it in the debate, John McClain -- John McClain -- excuse me -- John McCain, John McCain -- I don't recognize him anymore.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SYLVESTER: Biden called that a bad joke on his part but some might think it's another example of what Senator Obama calls Biden's rhetorical flourishes.
Democratic Congressman Jack Murtha is struggling to win re- election in his Pennsylvania district, according to a new poll. This after Murtha called some of his constituents racist. Murtha later apologized for that remark, but then said the area was "red neck territory" until a few years ago. The latest Susquehanna poll for "The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review" gives Murtha a lead of only five percent over his Republican challenger retired Army Officer William Russell. Murtha, an 18-term congressman, was leading by 27 points as recently as early October.
One of the most critical swing states in this election is Ohio. The state has been at the center of a bitter partisan fight about voter registration fraud. There are also serious concerns about the reliability and security of e-voting machines. Mary Snow reports from Columbus, Ohio.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ohio is hoping its early voting will prevent a repeat of this. Lines that lasted for more than five hours in places like Franklin County which includes Columbus. Engineering Professor Ted Allen was hired by the county to look at what went wrong.
TED ALLEN, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: We estimate that between 20 and 30,000 people were deterred from voting.
SNOW: Twenty to 30,000 people who couldn't vote and that's just in one county. Allen says lines were longest in urban areas and as a result African-Americans on average had to wait half an hour longer than everyone else to vote. One big problem? Not enough machines. The state has doubled the number from 2004.
STAN WAYNE, FRANKLIN COUNTY, BOARD OF ELECTIONS: The first thing the voter would do would be to be vote on this page.
SNOW: Touch screen machines like these will be used in Franklin County for the first time in a presidential election. Ohio's Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner who inherited the machines was so skeptical of them she ordered backup paper ballots at polling places.
JENNIFER BRUNNER (D), OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: We have very poorly engineered systems that I know that there are some on the horizon that would be an improvement but we're waiting on a very slow federal certification and testing process.
SNOW: There's more emphasis on better training for poll workers.
KAREN PRINCE, FRANKLIN COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS: If David's address or one he provides me with does not match, what I have in here, that's not going to work.
SNOW: We did a walk through of the early voting process using a paper ballot. State and local ballot measures make it lengthy.
MICHAEL STINZIANO, DIR., FRANKLIN COUNTY BD. OF ELECTIONS: In the time wait study we did, it takes about seven to nine minutes for the average person.
SNOW (on camera): OK.
STINZIANO: Obviously we've seen anywhere from maybe three minutes to an hour.
SNOW (voice-over): Crunching the numbers into simulations Ted Allen says long ballots coupled with high turnout could be problematic.
ALLEN: Amazingly, it takes so much longer to vote with the new machines we're predicting that there might be lines and depending on the turnout it might actually be worse than 2004.
SNOW: Worse than 2004?
ALLEN: Possibly.
SNOW (voice-over): In some precincts here voters are being asked to weigh in on as many as 24 races and ballot initiatives. Election officials are trying to encourage people to look at sample ballots on the Web and they're also hoping that early voting will reduce the lines on November 4th. Still, there's expected to be record turnout.
Mary Snow, CNN, Columbus, Ohio.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: And as we reported, Senator McCain and Governor Palin today campaigned in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. All three are very important states in this election. And the latest polls indicate there's everything to fight for. Bill Schneider joins us now with the latest polling numbers. Bill, tell us a little bit about those polls.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, CNN did a poll of polls, which is an average of all the polls that are out there in those three states. Now in Florida the CNN poll of polls shows Obama with 48 percent, McCain with 45, a three-point lead, but seven percent of the voters in our poll of polls are undecided.
Now, the overwhelming majority of those undecided voters are likely to be white voters because very few African-American voters are undecided. So the rule is if Obama's lead over McCain is smaller than the number of undecided voters, he can't feel entirely comfortable. In Florida, he's got a three-point lead with seven percent undecided.
One other interesting point about Florida, Obama's 48 percent is only one point better than John Kerry did in -- four years ago, but McCain's 45 percent is seven points worse than George Bush did four years ago. Now, Ohio, our second state. The poll of polls shows Obama with 50, one point better than John Kerry did.
It shows McCain with 43. That's eight points worse than George Bush did. What does that suggest? A real loss of support for Republicans but Obama is only doing slightly better if any better at all than John Kerry which is why there's so many unsure votes. Those unsure voters don't want to vote for the Republican ticket, but they're not yet sure about Obama.
SYLVESTER: Yeah, as you well know, you know Governor Palin has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania trying to win votes there. What can you tell us about the numbers? Is the race narrowing and who is up at this point?
SCHNEIDER: A lot of people are wondering what McCain and Palin are doing in Pennsylvania. It voted for John Kerry. It voted for Al Gore. It's a pretty Democratic state. McCain is making a big show there because Obama did so poorly there. He lost by 10 points to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
But right now the poll of polls shows a 10-point lead for Obama in Pennsylvania. Obama at 51 percent. That is exactly the same vote that John Kerry got four years ago, but McCain is showing 41 percent which is seven points worse than Bush did, so once again, McCain's performance is substantially worse than Bush's. Obama's only slightly better than John Kerry.
SYLVESTER: Yeah, and as we said for Senator McCain and his camp, time is certainly running out. Twelve days left, not a whole lot of time left.
SCHNEIDER: That's exactly right. And those unsure votes you know they're -- they've probably decided not to vote Republican, but they haven't yet made the commitment to vote Democratic for Barack Obama. Pennsylvania, by the way, is a margin of 10 points with eight percent undecided, so I think Obama can feel more comfortable about his lead there. SYLVESTER: OK. Thank you very much, Bill Schneider, for that report and that assessment.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
SYLVESTER: Still to come, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff vows to overcome legal objections to a critical measure in the fight against illegal immigration. Will Chertoff succeed? Can he defeat the pro amnesty business lobby?
And startling new numbers on home foreclosures, but help could be on the way for homeowners finally. We'll have a special report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: New evidence tonight that the housing crisis is far from over. The foreclosure rate soared a staggering 71 percent in the last year. In the last month alone more than 81,000 people lost their homes to foreclosure, but as Bill Tucker reports, there may finally be help on the way for some homeowners.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The sentiment of the Senate Banking Committee was clear. What's good for Wall Street is good for Main Street. The head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the FDIC, told the committee she agrees.
SHEILA BAIR, CHAIR, FDIC: The FDIC is working closely and creatively with Treasury on ways to use the recent financial rescue law to create a clear frame work and economic incentives for systematically modifying loans. The aim is for loan services to offer homeowners more affordable and sustainable mortgages.
TUCKER: The FDIC has seized new authority granted in the emergency economic stabilization act allowing it to provide loan guarantees to banks that renegotiate mortgages on the brink of foreclosure. Bair's message was echoed by the Treasury official who is in charge of the $700 billion rescue plan. Neel Kashkari told the committee members that a plan to revise mortgages should be announced soon.
NEEL KASHKARI, BAILOUT CZAR: We are passionate about doing everything we can to avoid preventable foreclosures.
TUCKER: The urgency of the housing crisis was underscored by a new report which revealed the foreclosure rate rose 71 percent in the third quarter of this year over last year to 765,558 homes. The report from RealtyTrac, which markets foreclosed homes, shows California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Ohio are the states hardest hit with California accounting for one quarter of all foreclosures last quarter. The pain is far from done. The report also noted that 266,000 received notices of foreclosure filings last month.
(END VIDEOTAPE) TUCKER: Now through the first week of September there have been 2,315,750 homes lost to foreclosure this year, according to RealtyTrac and Lisa, in the last 22 months, 4.5 million homes have been lost by homeowners due to foreclosure.
SYLVESTER: Yeah, those numbers are staggering. At least it seems like somebody in Washington though is paying attention to this issue from the perspective of the homeowners, but when, when can we expect some help?
TUCKER: Well that was the problem and it was interesting listening to this hearing today. They seemed very enamored by the fact that Ms. Bair noticed she had the authority that was in this legislation. She got no argument from Treasury on it and she indicated they're working on a plan. They did not ask her nor did they press her for a timetable, so you got the sense that one is imminent because she sees that authority and she's going to move ahead with it and she was pretty impressive in the hearing today I have to say.
SYLVESTER: Yeah, we'll keep an eye on that. Thank you very much, Bill Tucker, for that great report.
Well that brings us to the subject of tonight's poll. Do you believe it's about time the government helped homeowners just like it helped Wall Street banks? Yes or no? Cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll bring you the results later in the broadcast.
And as we've been reporting, the McCain campaign is warning voters that Senator Obama's economic plan amounts to little more than socialism. And with the massive federal bailout, the country could already be tilting towards the left. In fact, Americans need look no further than their own back yard to see what so-called 21st century socialism looks like.
In addition to communist stronghold Cuba, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has seized assets and set price controls. In Nicaragua Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega has befriended Chavez and sharply curtailed democratic freedoms. In Bolivia, President Evo Morales has seized control of energy companies and aims to redistribute land wealth to peasants and in Ecuador, President Rafael Correa, another Chavez protege, just rolled out a new socialist constitution which tightens his grip over the economy, possibly heading in the same radical direction Paraguay, Honduras and Guatemala, where leftist governments have recently come to power.
Up next Senators McCain and Obama in a battle for Independent voters in the final 12 days of the campaign. Who has the edge? Three of the sharpest political thinkers in the country will join us.
And special interest groups going to great lengths to make sure our immigration laws are not enforced. We'll have a special report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: The federal government today declared it will insure that a valuable program to stop illegal aliens from working in this country can go forward. The Department of Homeland Security proposed changes to the no match rule. That rule requires employers to take action when employee's Social Security numbers don't match federal records. The ACLU sued to block the program and today's changes were aimed at satisfying legal concerns. Jeanne Meserve has our report.
JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): How do you fight illegal immigration? If you are Michael Chertoff, former prosecutor and judge, one tool is the law. He wants to use the law against employers who hire illegal workers with fake Social Security numbers.
MICHAEL CHERTOFF, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: An employer cannot simply put his or her head in the sand but must take steps to make sure that they are brought into compliance with the law. Essentially this is kind of an anti-ostrich regulation.
MESERVE: More than a year ago Chertoff proposed sending letters to employers warning that they could face criminal charges if they did not resolve discrepancies between workers names and Social Security numbers. An unlikely coalition of business, labor, and immigration groups got an injunction to stop the letters.
Now, Chertoff says he has made modifications and will ask the court to lift it. But opponents say the government is turning a blind eye to reality that the Social Security data base is so flawed that as many as 165,000 lawful workers with mismatched Social Security numbers could lose their jobs. They also say it could cost businesses more than a billion dollars to try to resolve discrepancies. Chertoff sums up their position this way.
CHERTOFF: There are many businesses that rely on illegal migration in order to carry out their activities. And it would hurt them if they had to comply with the law. In my experience making money is not a sufficient justification for violating the law.
MESERVE (on camera): Given the tone, substance and stakes in this disagreement, you can expect the legal wrangling to continue -- Lisa?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: Thanks Jeanne -- Jeanne Meserve reporting. Secretary Chertoff today also said his agency made progress securing our nation's borders during the past year. Chertoff said increased enforcement efforts have stalled illegal immigration and may have even reduced it. This crisis is far from over as Casey Wian reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Apprehensions of illegal aliens by the Border Patrol are down 17 percent this year and 40 percent since 2005, according to the Department of Homeland Security. It's one piece of evidence that improved border security measures are deterring illegal border crossers. CHERTOFF: We have put our country on a path moving in the right direction with respect to illegal migration and we've reversed the trend of increasing illegal immigration into our country which I think is something that would not have been thought possible just a few years ago.
WIAN: Chertoff says there are now 17,628 U.S. Border Patrol agents, up from about 9,000 when President Bush took office and ahead of the president's hiring goal set two years ago. Other accomplishments include a record number of deportations, 350,000 in 2008 and the apprehension of 34,000 illegal alien fugitives this year double the number in 2006.
Arrests during work site raids have jumped 28 percent in 2008. Chertoff cited a recent Pew Hispanic Center study, which found the flow of illegal aliens into the United States began declining for the first time in recent memory last year. And evidence that remittances money sent home to Latin America are down.
CHERTOFF: I think we've actually upheld our end of the bargain. The American people didn't trust government, the federal government to withstand the pressures of various interest groups and to enforce the law. I think we have withstood that pressure.
WIAN: But huge challenges remain. Chertoff acknowledged his department will not complete the 670 miles of border fencing mandated by Congress by the end of this year nor even by the time the next president takes office. And he cited rampant violence by drug and alien smugglers on both sides of the southern border as an unfortunately consequence of improvements in border security.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: Many skeptics say the only reason illegal immigration has declined is because the U.S. economy has slowed, eliminating the job magnet. Chertoff rejects that, saying the U.S. economy continues to attract legal immigrants and in fact he says legal immigrants entering the United States now outnumber illegal aliens -- Lisa.
SYLVESTER: So, Casey, Secretary Chertoff, he's essentially giving his agency a big pat on the back, but at the same time you know essentially saying, look, although we promised this fence, 670 miles of fencing, now they make the announcement hey we're not going to get that done as if that sort of covers it all up, even though critics have said for months now that the fence will not be built on time. It sounds like they are finally acknowledging that point.
WIAN: They are finally acknowledging that point. That's what we've been expecting for a long time. It seemed like there was no way they were going to get that done by the deadline at the end of this year. You mentioned a pat on the back. It was clear that Secretary Chertoff was saying that this Homeland Security Department has done about all they believe they can do and that it's going to be up to the next administration to complete the job of border security -- Lisa.
SYLVESTER: And we will certainly see if that happens, although I know a number of people won't be holding their breath on that one, Casey.
WIAN: That's right.
SYLVESTER: Thanks very much, Casey, for that report.
And time now for some of your thoughts.
Roger in North Carolina: "Lou, I see that the Obama campaign is spending about $2 million on his victory bash in Chicago. Yet, the Obama campaign is crying foul because the McCain campaign spent $150,000 for Governor Palin's wardrobe? Sounds fair to me."
Eddie in Washington: "Lou, the left-wing ACLU needs to get a life. An American organization that puts the rights of illegal aliens above the rights of American citizens? Only in America!!!"
Patty in Arizona - "Hi Lou, I love Sarah Palin's new description of Obama as the wealth spreader." And we will have more of your e- mail later in the broadcast.
Now each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a copy of Lou's new book, "Independence Day, Awakening the American Spirit" now available in paperback.
Coming up, the very latest on senator McCain's Joe the plumber tour across Florida. We'll have a live report. And senators McCain and Obama sharpen their attacks on one another 12 days before Election Day. But is it too late for either candidate to influence voters? Three top political analysts will join us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: Joining me now are three of the best political analysts in the country. Democratic Strategist and CNN contributor, Hank Sheinkopf. CNN contributor and "New York Daily News" columnist, Errol Lewis. Errol is also the host of the morning show on WWRL in New York and from "The Wall Street Journal" John Fine. John is also author of "Stealing Elections, How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy" and we will hear from our panel in just a moment first we want to go to Ed Henry. He is with the McCain campaign in New Smyrna Beach in Florida in the important battleground state. Ed, what's the latest with the McCain campaign?
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lisa, John McCain has just left this state to go to Colorado. Another battleground. He spent the entire day here in the sunshine state really literally crisscrossing the state. This is pivotal. It's hard to really craft a winning scenario for John McCain mathematically without him carrying these 27 electoral votes here.
And issue number one here is the economy. They've been hit particularly hard by the foreclosure crisis. They've they also have a lot of senior citizens here obviously who are worried about their nest eggs evaporating specifically as they watch the gyrations on Wall Street. So John McCain launched what he called a Joe the plumber bus tour today. He didn't have Joe the plumber himself here. Instead he had all kinds of other guys like Tom the contractor, Tim the sports pub owner. The point is that McCain camp says that Joe the plumber is no longer just a man. He's a metaphor essentially for John McCain to say that he feels the middle class' pain and Barack Obama does not.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: You know, whether it's Joe the plumber in Ohio or Joe over here, thank you, Joe. Joe, thank you. There's Joe all over here.
Small business owners I met with this morning here in Florida. We shouldn't be taxing our small businesses more as Senator Obama wants to do. We need to be helping them expand their businesses and create jobs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now Barack Obama insists that any Joe, whether it's Joe the plumber or any other average Joe would actually get a tax cut under his plan if they make less than $250,000 a year. You are going to see this back and forth a lot over the next 12 days. The final days 12 days of this campaign.
This tax issue is something that John McCain really hopes can ride him to victory. A comeback victory is what he's hoping for based on pushing Obama on the tax issue, Lisa.
SYLVESTER: OK, Ed Henry thanks for that report. Thanks for that wrap-up. OK you just heard Ed Henry
John, first question to you. Ed says that Florida is a must win for John McCain. Do you agree?
JOHN FUND, WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER: It's very hard to construct an electoral map without Florida staying republican as it did in 2000 by that much and in 2004 by a little bit more.
SYLVESTER: And Hank, do you agree that same scenario?
HANK SHEINKOPF: It is critical for John McCain if he's to win, to win Florida. Is he going to win? People looking at the map entirely wrong when they look at Florida. Look at where the votes are. Where African Americans are in the center of the state. Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Pensacola, that strip.
They are going to turn out in record numbers. It's going to change things dramatically in South Florida. Not as republican as it once was so there's definite change going on and John McCain probably will not be the beneficiary of it.
SYLVESTER: We have polling numbers that we want to share with our viewers. It's poll of polls and it shows that Obama is leading by 48 percent. McCain 45 percent. And the number of unsure voters are 7 percent.
Errol, is there some give there? ERROL LEWIS, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS REPORT: Well he's certainly got a shot. There are highly motivated voters to go along with the black voters that Hanks talking about up there in that Bible belt. Up in Duvall County, up around Tallahassee. That's Bible belt. It's really the Deep South. They're very motivated. They turn out in huge numbers. If they really get their act together, if what's left of Karl Rove's turnout operation is still in motion, they could make it very competitive there for sure.
SYLVESTER: Yes, John, I want to talk about because this whole issue of the polling numbers. You know, one of the interesting things a lot of people are saying how reliable, are questioning how reliable are these polls in the first place.
When you look at national polls, there's such a spread. There's an APGFK poll that shows Obama is up by 1 percent nationally. Then you've got an ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows him up by 11 percent. So why such the disparity in these polling numbers?
FUND: I'm really glad you are giving us the opportunity to give the consumer's guide to polls. The first question you should ask about a poll is, how large is the sample? If it's 500 in a statewide basis, you're going to have a larger margin of error. It may be useless if it's 4.5 percent margin of error. You know, who knows who's ahead?
Also, was it registered voters? Is it a high turnout model as Hank thinks it might be? Is it a low turnout model? Really, who turns out is as important as who you call. If you get registered voters, remember only about 70 percent of those normally turn out. So you're not getting a full picture. Depends who you ask.
SYLVESTER: Yes, Hank your thoughts?
SHEINKOPF: I think John is very, very right about that. Very correct. Most of these polling models are based on high (inaudible) and people who have phones and people you can reach by phone and people who will stay on the phone with you and who have high history of voting over time.
The voters we're going to see turn out this time may very well be people who have not turned out with that kind of intensity, who we might not think are high (inaudible) and who think there's a lot at stake. There's a generational shift going on. We've discounted all of us in the pundit corps have discounted two frequently younger voters. They are going to be coming out in numbers. And we've discounted African American turnout.
It's going to be record breaking. There will be nothing like this in history and it's going to change what happens in Florida every place else.
SYLVESTER: Yes, Errol, if I'm with Obama's campaign though you know, you hear and people see these numbers that he's up by 10 percent so Democratic voters might say, "Oh, you know, I don't have to turn up on Election Day, he's got it in the bag." Is that a worry for Obama? LOUIS: Oh for sure. And they keep saying New Hampshire, New Hampshire. Way back in January when they were supposed to win New Hampshire and they didn't.
I talked with some senior Obama turnout people and I've asked them, well there must be some tussling going on over what happens after November 4th. They said, we literally refuse to talk about it. It's they're superstitious about it, they are keeping their heads down; they're just working like no tomorrow.
FUND: Just remember in 1996 Bob Dole was down 14 points against Bill Clinton and he ended up losing by 8. That's a big difference between 14 and 8. It still meant Dole a loss but it meant that the polls did not fully capture some last minute momentum and how the undecideds broke.
SYLVESTER: Yes, in fact, let's take a look, we've gotten also some polling numbers for Ohio and I want to take a look and ask you, John about this.
In Ohio, we have our poll of polls that shows that Obama is up 50 percent to 43 percent for McCain, 7 percent unsure. But if you take a look at CNN's own poll, it shows that Obama is only up by 4 percent, which is just above the margin of error there.
FUND: Look, I'll make a prediction, whatever Obama's final number is in a state, taking an average of all the polls in a state, is probably going to be close to what his final number is.
In the primaries against Hillary Clinton, whatever Obama had in the final primary numbers is what he ended up getting. I don't know there are a variety of reasons because he's an untested candidate. Perhaps, partly because he's African American but the bottom line is he has to clear over 50 to be sure that he's going to win a state.
SYLVESTER: Errol, your thoughts?
LOUIS: That sounds about right actually. You know one of the metrics that doesn't get captured by polling is the huge disadvantage that McCain has when it comes to the number of ads.
I mean we were talking about Florida. When you consider that for a week recently in Miami I think they ran something like 1,000 ads from the Obama camp and it was not answered at all on the McCain side.
FUND: Isn't it interesting, Lisa, that we've always had complaints about how much money there is in politics until the last few months. Suddenly I don't hear these complaints anymore. I wonder why?
SYLVESTER: And the Obama campaign is certainly outspending the McCain campaign.
FUND: Well they used to love public financing until they realized they were an ATM machine.
SYLVESTER: Yes, Hank, what do you think of that?
SHEINKOPF: Someone said on Lou Dobbs program a long time ago which is how do you get past the expenditure of ten to one against you? Not so easy and that's what's going to happen here. McCain is going to be mercilessly outspent. He's running a campaign that has been off message constantly, not reinforceable, he's got problems with a running mate. How he gets out of this is anybody's guess. It's not going to be with Joe the plumber because ultimately when people see McCain the see George the president they don't see Joe the plumber and that's the problem he faces.
SYLVESTER: OK we're going to take a break right here and we're going to have more from our panel in just a moment.
But first if you notice any trouble at your polling place on Election Day, we want to hear about it. Please call CNN's voter hotline, 1-877-462-6608. And you can find that number on our website at LouDobbs.com. Stay with us for more.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: I'm back now with Hank Sheinkopf, Errol Louis and John Fund. Now earlier today Senator McCain was accusing Senator Obama saying essentially that Senator Obama would be willing to say anything to get elected. Let's take a listen to what McCain said earlier.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: He's more concerned about using taxes to spread the wealth than creating a tax plan that creates jobs and grows our economy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SYLVESTER: All right, John, is this the right message? I mean he only has 12 days to turn around and then change some voters' minds here. So, is this the right message? Hammer and focus on the economy?
FUND: If it's part of larger theme that Barack Obama despite how cool he is and despite how measured his words that he's really just another liberal that can have some resonance.
Just remember, "Newsweek" magazine just did a cover story if Barack Obama wins how will he govern what is still a center right country? And I think this still is a center right country. And if John McCain can pound home the fact that he represents something like traditional conservatism although he has weaknesses in his base, and Barack Obama represents traditional liberalism, he can make a difference.
SYLVESTER: Yes, Hank it just seems that the economy is an issue that Barack Obama has essentially dominated at this point. So what does he do? He just keeps hammering and focusing on the economy and hopes that there's no slip in the next 12 days?
SHEINKOPF: When the boxer opens the wound, he keeps going until the wound makes it impossible for the opponent to function. What happened here is that the wound is the economy, John McCain represents George Bush and America wants change. It's as simple as that. And McCain can't come up with an economic plan that seems to resonate under any circumstances.
SYLVESTER: Hank, do you think that this is done or would you say this election is done at this point?
SHEINKOPF: I would suggest that John McCain should not be holding an extraordinary victory party and some might want to save their money and buy houses rather than contribute to the campaign.
SYLVESTER: Well, let me ask Errol. Is it possible that we wake up and we open our newspapers and we watch CNN and we find out that McCain has won the election because of some of these issues that we've brought up in terms of the polling numbers, that polling numbers may be way off?
LOUIS: Anything is possible not only because of the polling numbers but because the theme that we heard saying that Barack Obama only cares about himself and that he's just an ambitious politician. I have to disagree a little bit here with John. That's really aimed at Independents. They don't partisanship. They don't like ideology. If after a two-year campaign they still haven't made up their minds - oh hold on I didn't interrupt you-- they don't want to see a careerist politician.
And that in face is why Barack Obama has moved away from those big rallies. He's only come back to them recently. He spent months doing those little town halls and not the big excited rallies because they found out that independents don't like that. They don't want to see all this political ambition in their face. So they pulled back a little bit.
Now he's got 12 days to try and make the case. He's going to try and make the case with very little money. He's got a very tough road to hoe.
SYLVESTER: So wait you didn't answer my question. Is it possible that we'll wake up the day after the election and found out McCain has won the election. Because a lot of people are saying, you know, McCain is done and I want to know, is it possible still that McCain will pull out a victory?
LOUIS: I can't paint you the scenario very easily. He manages somehow to hang onto almost all of George Bush's states and flips one major one like Pennsylvania. That is the McCain strategy. It is in fact possible to pull it off.
FUND: Lisa, here's an argument for independents in the last few days. It was used, by the way, very effectively by republicans in 1996 to hold the congress. To independents, he says you don't like one- party government. You've never liked it. It doesn't work under republicans, it doesn't work under democrats. If you give Barack Obama the presidency, the democrats are going to hold congress; they'll run everything. Do you really want that? That may be an argument for some independents to consider.
SYLVESTER: Yes, but he's running out of time. I mean if he's going make this argument, then he has to make that argument loud and clear now.
FUND: Well, the Republicans in North Carolina and in several other senate races today started running commercials with precisely that argument so it started today.
SYLVESTER: OK.
SHEINKOPF: Well, the argument they're running is really big government and the Barack Obama from their perspective represents big government and McCain represents small government.
FUND: ... and they try to control the entire government without any checks and balances...
SHEINKOPF: ... nonsensical nonsense. The real reality is parties are not as important as they once were and the facts are that people are concerned about the economy; they trust one party to do something about it and not the other the other (inaudible).
FUND: But all the polls show independents like divided government. They asked them. Do you want to divide power? They say yes.
SHEINKOPF: They also like working.
FUND: Well I agree...
SHEINKOPF: ... they like eating, they like working and that's why..
(CROSSTALK)
SYLVESTER: OK Errol Louis, you are going to get the final word, you're sitting in the middle. You get to talk, what is it?
LOUIS? I think both gentlemen are right. I mean, that has been the argument all along. Is this a change election, is this an experience election? Well it turned out to be an economics and I think arguing that the marginal tax rate on people that make more than a quarter of a million dollars is some reason not to vote for a candidate, it's just not going to resonate all the way down the income scale. It hasn't, it never has, I don't think it's going to happen this time.
SYLVESTER: OK, we've got 12 days to find out. Thank you very much Hank, Errol and John. Thanks for your insight; we appreciate your analysis.
Well, coming up at the top of the hour, Campbell Brown, no bias, no bull. Well, Campbell, what are you working on? CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey there Lisa, well tonight we're going to talk about some new challenges within the Republican Party. The discussion of Sarah Palin's $150,000 wardrobe bill is stepping all over John McCain's message about being the candidate of Joe the plumber.
Also, new reports that republicans are despairing about the election and the finger pointing and blame game already under way with a vengeance.
Also tonight we introduce the no bias no bull Rove's gallery. Members of congress who have strayed so far from the straight and narrow path that voters just might throw them out head first. See who is our first inductee. We're going to see you in a minute.
SYLVESTER: OK, thanks Campbell for that. We'll check in with you a little later.
Well up next the war on radical Islamist's terrorism after a quarter century of attacks we'll discuss that and more with one of country's most respected military analysts, General David Grange.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: Radical Islamic terrorists began their war against the United States' military a quarter century ago today.
A suicide bomber exploded a truck bomb inside the marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon. 241 of our marines were killed. 25 years later, that war is still going on.
Joining me now is CNN Military Analyst General David Grange. Now that attack was widely recognized as the beginning of the radical Islamic terrorism's war against the United States. Last 25 years, how far have we come?
GENERAL DAVID GRANGE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, first of all, we should have done something immediately after that. I don't think withdrawing the marines was the right answer but that's water under the bridge.
We haven't gone too far in 25 years reference doing something about the power of the Hezbollah. They've grown strong over the years. We've done a little bit but not enough. And here's an organization that produces terrorism, it's an army, it's a political entity and it's also a non-profit organization. A very complex, powerful enemy today and I believe it'll be more powerful than Al Qaeda for us in the future.
SYLVESTER: Yes, how do we essentially defeat this enemy? I mean, this enemy had been around for 25 years. What exactly can we do? Hezbollah has been around for that long.
GRANGE: Well, first of all there are known terrorists that are on our watch list that have killed Americans and we first of all should get them. Take them out or capture them. There's still some out there that can be done.
The other is to make sure we curtail their efforts and influence in certain places of the world. They're in the western hemisphere; they're throughout the world. And particularly, they're working in some degree in Iraq. And so, wherever we can, we need to stop their actions.
SYLVESTER: And turning to Iraq, General Grange, the United States and Iraq they're nearing a security pact that could lead to the withdraw of U.S. Troops by 2011. How likely is it that the Iraqi forces and civilians will be able to stand up and be ready by 2011 to take over security measures?
GRANGE: Well, first of all, there's Iraqi units ready now. They've got some very tough, capable organizations. Some are not. The key thing is not just the ability to shoot, to move, to communicate, to fight. It's also to teach a military how to serve a democratic society. And this is a big culture shift for this kind of army in this part of the world and that's one of the biggest problems is to get the leadership on board to lead.
SYLVESTER: All right. David grange, thank you very much for that insight. It is always a pleasure to have you on our show. Thank you very much.
GRANGE: My pleasure.
SYLVESTER: Be sure to stay with CNN and MTV this weekend for a series of specials on the issues facing young veterans.
Beyonce and Kid Rock are among the performers on "The Night For Vets" a special concert on MTV Friday night at 8:00 pm Eastern.
Anderson Cooper hosts "Back from the Battle" on CNN this weekend. "Back from the Battle" features young veterans telling their own stories that airs this Saturday and Sunday at 8:00 pm right here on CNN.
Up next, the results of our poll and more of your thoughts.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SYLVESTER: Tonight's poll results, 76 percent of you believe it's about time that the government help homeowners just like it helped Wall Street banks.
And time now for more of your thoughts.
Mark in New Jersey; Lou, your show is the only show I watch on CNN. I'm surprised you're able to get away with calling it like it is. I don't agree with you all the time but at least you have the guts to tell the truth. Thanks.
Rebecca in Arizona,; regarding your story on the ACLU and the border patrol, a United States citizen needs to file a lawsuit against the ACLU for wasting of millions of taxpayer dollars to fight their useless and wildly ludicrous lawsuits. As always, Lou, thanks for keeping us informed no matter how angry it makes us.
Jennifer in California; you and your show are a breath of fresh air on CNN. Thank you, Mr. Dobbs for giving us the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I'm a conservative democrat and I just love your show.
Napoleon in Michigan; Lou, I've been pushed and shoved into a tailspin with all of this media bias. Thanks for keeping it straight. Too bad there are not more like you.
Barry in California; Lou I just want to say, thank God we've got you. You are doing a great job on radio and TV.
Well, we certainly love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts at LouDobbs.com and please join Lou on the radio Monday through Friday for the Lou Dobbs show. Go to LouDobbsradio.com to find local listings for the Lou Dobbs show on the radio.
Thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us tomorrow for all of us here, thanks for watching. Good night from New York. Campbell Brown "No Bias, No Bull" starts right now. Campbell.
