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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Blagojevich vs. Reid; Obama's Disappointment; Israel May Declare Truce; War on the Middle Class
Aired December 30, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thanks, Suzanne.
Tonight, a dramatic showdown between Illinois Governor Blagojevich and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a confrontation over Barack Obama's former Senate seat. We'll have complete coverage.
Also tonight, indications that Israel may declare a truce after its four-day bombardment of Gaza; we'll have the very latest on that.
Also tonight the federal government spends another $6 billion to prop up the car industry, but is anyone helping our middle class? We'll have all that, all the day's news and much more from an independent perspective straight ahead here tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Tuesday, December 30th. Live from New York, sitting in for Lou Dobbs, Kitty Pilgrim.
PILGRIM: Good evening, everybody. Illinois Governor Blagojevich tonight is defying the leadership of the Democratic Party. Now the governor naming former State Attorney General Roland Burris to replace President-elect Obama in the U.S. Senate. Blagojevich making the appointment even though he's charged with trying to sell the seat to the highest bidder, Democratic leaders in the Senate are furious. President-elect Barack Obama says he's disappointed. Ed Lavandera has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The chutzpah shocks even the most passionate critics of Governor Rod Blagojevich.
GOV. ROD BLAGOJEVICH (D), ILLINOIS: To not fill the vacancy would be to deprive the people of Illinois of two United States senators and to deprive the people of Illinois of their appropriate voice and votes in the United States Senate.
LAVANDERA: Blagojevich's lawyer had said the governor would not fill Illinois' vacant Senate seat but there he is now. The scandal tainted governor standing by his pick to become the next Illinois senator, Roland Burris.
BLAGOJEVICH: Please don't allow the allegations against me to taint this good and honest man. LAVANDERA: Burris is a former Illinois attorney general who ran against Blagojevich for governor in 2002 but the two quickly became friends. Burris was a key member of the governor's transition team. Some Illinois Republicans describe Burris as a Blagojevich crony who has spent years working as a lobbyist between his wife, his firm and himself, he's donated about $15,000 to Blagojevich's campaigns. But just a few weeks ago Burris said the governor should be removed from office. He's not saying that anymore.
ROLAND BURRIS (D), FORMER ILLINOIS ATTORNEY GENERAL: I am humbled to have the opportunity and promise the citizens that I will dedicate my utmost effort as their United States senator.
LAVANDERA: The appointment sent shock waves across political circles in Illinois. Many expressing dismay, outrage and one Republican official says the governor is a very confused person.
LT. GOV. PAUL QUINN (D), ILLINOIS: It's time that he gets the message that people of Illinois will not tolerate his antics any longer.
JAY STEWART, ILLINOIS BETTER GOVT. ASSOC.: This is really to some degree theater of the absurd. This is Governor Blagojevich thumbing his nose at the rest of the world.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAVANDERA: And Kitty, at the end of the press conference another bizarre moment as the governor was walking out and was actually out of earshot of the microphones that were there he pointed at reporters and said don't lynch the appointer, which is kind of odd because just moments before Illinois Congressman Bobby Rush, an African-American, approached the podium and essentially offered his support to Burris because he would be the only African-American in the Senate, so a bizarre ending to a bizarre press conference -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: It certainly is. Thanks very much. Ed Lavandera. Thanks Ed.
Top Democrats tonight are telling CNN they will block the governor's attempt to fill Barack Obama's Senate seat and those Democrats are saying anyone appointed by the governor cannot be an effective representative of the people of Illinois. Brianna Keilar reports from Washington. Brianna, what are these Senate Democrats saying about this appointment?
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well they're saying just that, Kitty. They will stand in the way of the governor's appointment of Roland Burris. Democratic leaders in the Senate say they don't question Burris' ability but they said in a statement today that "under these circumstances anyone appointed by Blagojevich cannot be an effective representative of the people of Illinois and as we have said will not be seated by the Democratic Caucus". So Kitty, clearly the Democratic leadership in the Senate believing they have this power under the U.S. Constitution to block this appointment -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Brianna, this is causing a big partisan battle in the Senate. What's the reaction from Senate Republicans tonight?
KEILAR: Oh, it is a battle. And Senate Republicans they want a special election. This is that other route that the Illinois legislature can take. Unlike if Blagojevich steps aside in his Democratic supporter picks of course a Democrat to fill Obama's vacant seat, anyone can run in a special election, so Republicans would have a shot at getting the seat.
Republican Senator John Cornyn, he is the new or the incoming chairman of the committee that sole purpose is to increase the number of Republicans in the Senate, he said leadership in Washington in Springfield decided to play politics with this Senate seat and unfortunately the people of Illinois are now paying the price. He went on to say the next senator of Illinois should be chosen in the light of day through a special election and not in the back rooms of Washington or Springfield.
Democrats, of course, they want to keep this seat so badly in the Senate, of course a simple majority just doesn't do. You need 60 votes to steam roll the opposition. Democrats only have 57, two others including this Obama seat still undetermined. If they can get those, Kitty, they've only got to win over one Republican to get their way on a vote, so they want Blagojevich to step aside.
PILGRIM: Yeah, sounds like quite a tussle. Thanks very much. Brianna Keilar.
President-elect Obama tonight declared he is extremely disappointed with the governor's decision. Ed Henry reports from Honolulu near the president-elect's vacation retreat in Hawaii. So Ed, what exactly is the president-elect saying tonight?
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well good evening, Kitty. What's interesting the president-elect weighing in for the first time on this latest Blagojevich controversy and he's backing up Senate Democrats in what Brianna was just being reported on, their efforts to block this appointment.
The president-elect saying in a statement quote, "Roland Burris" is a good man and a fine public servant but the Senate Democrats made it clear weeks ago that they cannot accept an appointment made by a governor who is accused of selling this very Senate seat."
Mr. Obama goes on to say, "I agree with their decision and it is extremely disappointing that Governor Blagojevich has chosen to ignore it. I believe the best resolution would be for the governor to resign his office and allow a lawful and appropriate process of succession to take place. While Governor Blagojevich is entitled to his day in court, the people of Illinois are entitled to a functioning government and major decisions free of taint and controversy.
Some very strong words from the president-elect, now you'll remember he had previously called for the governor to resign but reiterating that call now also backing Senate Democrats in the effort to block this appointment for the replacement of what used to be Barack Obama's seat in the Senate. It's clear that this rupture in the Democratic Party is going to continue for some time even as senior Democrats try to put it behind them. They just can't do it yet -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Yeah, no ambiguity there, Ed. Thanks very much, Ed Henry.
HENRY: Absolutely.
PILGRIM: That brings us to tonight's poll. Now should embattled Illinois Governor Blagojevich be allowed to appoint someone to fill President-elect Obama's Senate seat? Give us a yes or no vote on that. Cast your vote at loudobbs.com. And we'll bring you the results a little bit later in the broadcast.
Well turning to our other big story tonight, Israel's bombardment of Gaza. It's entering its fifth straight day. The Palestinian death toll has risen to at least 375. But Hamas rockets are still hitting Israel. And tonight there is talk of a possible truce. Nic Robertson reports from Sderot in southern Israel and Nic, what's the very latest on the war and the possibility of a truce that we're hearing about?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the defense minister, Ehud Barak, is considering a two-day truce with Hamas that's been proposed by the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. This would allow -- the idea is would allow humanitarian supplies to get into Gaza but this is conditional on what Hamas does.
And Hamas today fired about 12 missiles on this town about five miles from the Gaza Strip, one falling on the house right behind me. Hamas also today firing missiles further than they fired them before from Gaza, about 28 miles north of Gaza, falling in the town of Beersheba (ph). This is the longest range missile yet fired by Hamas and an indication that they are pulling out some of the -- they're essentially pulling out the big guns in their arsenal, so while the defense minister is considering this possibility of a two-day cease- fire, we also understand the Israeli cabinet has agreed to call up another 2,500 Israeli reservists in the army in case they're needed, in case the battle with Hamas continues in Gaza -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Nic, they've already authorized, they're calling up several thousand, have they not?
ROBERTSON: Indeed. The 6,500 they've authorized already, another 2,500 now. And while we were driving down here -- driving to the south of Israel today down from Jerusalem just a couple of hours ago, we passed several tanks on the back of tank transporters moving south. We have seen more tanks moving into positions around Gaza.
If you have to read what's going on here, there may be a discussion about a cease-fire. No one in this town is holding their breath and the army is certainly positioning themselves for the possibility of a ground offensive in Gaza.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much. Nic Robertson. Thank you, Nic. Now pro-Hamas students today stormed the British Embassy compound in the Iranian capital Tehran. The students raised a Palestinian flag inside the compound and shouted anti-British and anti-Israeli slogans. They later left the compound. Iranian students have been protesting outside the Embassy since Sunday. The Iranian government strongly supports Hamas.
President Bush today talked with Palestinian Authority leaders in the West Bank about the war and the White House said Hamas must agree to a quote, "sustainable cease-fire". Elaine Quijano reports from near President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas -- Elaine.
ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well Kitty, President Bush, as you said worked the phones. He called the leaders as you noted of the Palestinian Authority, both Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as well as Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
Now the White House says both leaders agree with President Bush that in order for any cease-fire to be effective, it must be respected by Hamas and it must be long lasting.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORDON JOHNDROE, W.H. DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY: We have got to get a commitment from Hamas that they would respect any cease-fire and make it lasting and durable. And so until we can get that assurance, not the United States but until Israel can get that assurance from Hamas, then we're not going to have a cease-fire that is worth the paper it's written on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUIJANO: Now President Bush today also spoke by phone to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Egypt, of course is acting an intermediary with Hamas. I should also mention that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also conducting some telephone diplomacy as well speaking to officials and counterparts trying to push through what the United States is calling a sustainable and durable cease-fire -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: All right, thanks very much. Elaine Quijano.
We will have more on the Middle East conflict ahead. A former adviser to six secretaries of state will join us to discuss it. Also new details tonight on the Santa Claus massacre in California on Christmas Eve.
Also tens of thousands of stores could close next year. We'll tell you why. And the federal government hands over even more money to Detroit. What about the middle class? Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: New evidence today of the devastating impact of the recession on middle class Americans. Consumer confidence has fallen to an all-time low. Home prices plummeted by a record amount in the past year. As Louise Schiavone reports, 2009 promises more of the same.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For the economy, the year is ending not with a bang or a whimper but with one long groan.
ROBERT MANNING, ECONOMIST: Clearly this is going to be the worst economic downturn since the 1930's. There's no question about that. And the big question is going to be how are we going to come out of this recession? Do we have a game plan?
SCHIAVONE: Consumer confidence hasn't been this low in at least 41 years according to a leading business research group and the housing market where financial erosion has become one big economic sinkhole continues to disappoint. The 20 city Standard & Poor's Case- Shiller index is now reporting 27 consecutive months of home price declines with property values on average posting a record year-to-year decline of 18 percent. And some experts say the numbers don't tell the full extent of the losses.
BILLY PROCIDA, REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL: I think there's a 10- month inventory just of foreclosures and short sales forgetting about people who have equity in their homes who may want to retire and move. They're not even thinking about moving.
SCHIAVONE: It's not how President Bush wanted to be remembered.
JOHNDROE: I don't think the numbers are surprising and you know unfortunately I think these bad numbers will likely continue into the future.
SCHIAVONE: Meanwhile, the latest lender at the U.S. Treasury's doorstep, GMAC Financial Services, a consumer finance arm of General Motors getting $5 billion from the bailout fund. That in addition to the more than 17 billion already promised to Detroit.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHIAVONE: And Kitty, economists say there's a good chance this picture will become even gloomier as the New Year begins. And given the broadly held view that the people who created the mess are incapable of cleaning it up, expectations are high for the next president but so are the challenges -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: That is exactly the truth. Thanks very much. Louise Schiavone.
Well rising concerns tonight about unemployment benefits in South Carolina. Now, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford is demanding an audit of his state's unemployment funding. Sanford says he won't request $146 million federal loan to replenish that fund until that audit is complete. South Carolina's unemployment rate is 8.4 percent. It's the third highest in the nation. Seventy-seven thousand people in the state receive unemployment benefits. The governor and state officials are still discussing ways to resolve this issue. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of this country's economy, but with Americans shopping less, 2008 was a brutal year for retailers. More than a dozen store chains filed for bankruptcy and after a dismal holiday season, retailers are bracing themselves for even more bankruptcies in 2009. Bill Tucker has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The list of retailers already in bankruptcy includes Circuit City, Sharper Image, Linens-n-Things, KB Toys. Retail and consulting firm Alex Partners (ph) says expect more to come. It predicts that a quarter of the 182 major retailers it watches are facing major financial difficulties or at risk for filing for bankruptcy in either 2009 or 2010. Wall Street ratings firms Standard & Poor's warns a weak economy means 2009 will be tough on retailers.
CHRYSTIA FREELAND, FINANCIAL TIMES: I would say the consensus forecast is that next year will be really, really pretty dire.
TUCKER: Dire, tough, challenging, all of which comes down to a fight for survival.
SCOTT KRUGMAN, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: I think the theme of 2009 is going to be belt tightening. And because of that, I think you're going to see retailers do what they can to keep their operating costs under control.
TUCKER: That means closing stores, reducing inventory with aggressive sales and firing employees. The International Council of Shopping Centers says job losses in 2008 could be close to 800,000 with no letup for 2009, at least in the first half of the year. The ICSC estimates that 148,000 retail stores will close in 2008. It is projecting another 73,000 stores will shut down in the first half of 2009.
MICHAEL NIEMIRA, INTL. COALITION OF SHOPPING CTRS.: We are saying that we are expecting that the '09 store closings will continue at a very high level, probably consistent with the pace that we're seeing in '08.
TUCKER: The American economy is driven by consumption. People buying things. When unemployment is rising, not even a 72 percent plunge in energy prices can get people spending again.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: And the weakness we saw in Christmas sales made that much obvious. That's because a lot of people are wondering if they'll have a paycheck to even pay for the gas -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Well any of us who have been in a store lately see no inventory coming in and basically shelves being emptied but not replaced. It doesn't look like the projections are very good for even healthy retailers. TUCKER: Well no and when you have two-thirds of your economy based on people spending things, people have to be making money to spend that money and more people are losing their jobs so the underlying dynamic is not healthy and it's not good.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much. Bill Tucker.
Well the car industry has also suffered massive job losses. A new report finds African-American workers are the hardest hit by the industry's crisis. The Economic Policy Institute says 20,000 black autoworkers lost their jobs over the past year. That's a decline of almost 14 percent.
It's a sharp contrast to a 4.4 percent decline for all manufacturing jobs. Now, African-Americans make up about 14 percent of the auto industry's entire workforce.
And the only company not asking for a government bailout is Ford Motors, is trying to push a new technology to compete with foreign carmakers. Now Ford is introducing a new high tech parking technology. Ford is offering automatic parallel parking as an option on its 2010 Lincoln MKS sedan, a new crossover utility vehicle.
The cars will be available by the middle of 2009. Now Ford is not the first car making to offer this self-parking technology. Toyota's Lexus line introduced automatic parking in 2006.
Coming up, parts of the country that are already snowed under. They're bracing for another blast of winter. We'll tell you all about that.
Also why fewer illegal aliens are trying to cross our border, we'll have a special report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Police now say the man who killed nine people on Christmas Eve while dressed as Santa Claus plotted the attack months ago. Investigators in California believe that Bruce Pardo also planned to kill his mother and his ex-wife's divorce attorney. Pardo was badly burned in the fire he set at his in-laws home after the shootings and he later killed himself. Police discovered Pardo had a getaway car, a plane ticket to the Midwest and several guns and ammunition.
Let's turn now to some dangerous weather across the country tonight. We have a supermarket roof collapse in Spokane, Washington under the weight of about 30 inches of snow. No one was reported injured. Spokane has experienced record breaking snowfall. This month nearly 60 inches of snow. More snow is expected tonight and tomorrow.
Detroit residents also bracing for snow tonight. Flood warnings remain in effect for the areas around the major rivers and streams and floods and high winds have pounded Detroit in recent days. It's been causing massive power outages. About 30,000 customers are still without power. Crews from surrounding states have been brought in to work on the outages.
New developments tonight in the number of people trying to enter this country illegally. Now the border patrol says it caught fewer illegal aliens trying to cross into the United States in 2008, fewer than during any year in more than three decades. The Bush administration credits improved border security but others say it's actually because of the economy. Casey Wian reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The border patrol says it caught 723,825 people trying to enter the United States illegally in 2008. The agency says that's the fewest apprehensions since 1976. It's also less than half the 1.8 million caught during 2000, the busiest year ever for illegal alien apprehensions. The most widely used gauge of illegal crossings.
Since then, the border patrol has more than doubled in size to 18,000 agents. Customs and Border Protection has built more than 500 miles of border fencing. More illegal aliens are being prosecuted and deportations are up 20 percent in the past year.
MICHAEL CHERTOFF, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: I myself have been to the Southern Border many, many times over the last four years. I've even welded some of the border fence. I've ridden horse patrol with the border patrol. I've stood there while people go through the ports of entry. And I have to tell you that the fine work that people who protect our borders is transforming what we are doing in terms of border security.
WIAN: Skeptics including the Border Patrol Union claim the rapid increase in staffing was accomplished by cutting corners in training and standards.
T.J. BONNER, NAT'L BORDER PATROL COUNCIL: We will be living with this for years to come now trying to catch up and weed out the people who should not have been hired and to properly train those who have not received the proper training.
WIAN: New agents are being deployed to an increasingly violent southern border where attacks against agents by drug and alien smugglers are at an all-time high, 1,100 in 2008 alone. Another concern the Department of Homeland Security will miss a congressional deadline for 670 miles of border fencing before the end of this year.
The border patrol says 90 percent has been built and it believes the remainder will be complete by the end of January and then new fence construction will stop. DHS officials concede the slumping economy is at least partially responsible for the drop in illegal alien apprehensions.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: Now there have never been reliable statistics on how many illegal crossers successfully avoid apprehension. In previous years border patrol officials have said privately that for every illegal alien they caught, between three and five others got away. Even if that ratio has now dropped to one successful illegal crosser for every person apprehended, that still means the number of illegal aliens entering the United States each year is nearly equivalent to the population of Austin, Texas, Columbus, Ohio, or San Francisco, California -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: That certainly puts it in perspective. Thanks very much. Casey Wian.
Well in Miami Customs and Border Protection officers seized more than $5 million worth of cocaine. It was hidden in a furniture container. Customs officials found 373 pounds of cocaine in the furniture. The container's ship's last port of call was Guyana. Federal agents are conducting an extensive investigation to catch the smugglers.
We do have time now for some of your thoughts and we did receive dozens of e-mails in response to last night's poll question about requiring automakers to buy American parts. So let us read you some.
Lori in North Carolina wrote to us "Yes U.S. automakers should be required to buy U.S. parts when taxpayer money is bailing them out. We the people are under the assumption that the U.S. automaker is just that -- a U.S. automaker".
And Edie in South Dakota. "I strongly feel that not only should U.S. automakers be required to but American, but that there should be a tax -- tax credits for consumers that buy American cars".
And John in New York wrote "I believe the automakers should buy American made parts with taxpayer dollars. That's the whole point, keeping my uncles and brother's working as they're also getting out of debt."
And we'll have more of your e-mails a little bit later in the broadcast. Each of you whose e-mail is read here will receive a copy of Lou's new book, "Independents Day: Awakening the American Spirit". It's now available in paperback.
And coming up, Governor Blagojevich defies Democratic Party leaders and chooses a new U.S. senator. Now three top political analysts will give us their assessment of that. And what are the prospects of a truce in Israel's all-out war against Hamas? A former adviser to six secretaries of state will join us next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT, news, debate and opinion, an Independent view. Here again, Kitty Pilgrim.
PILGRIM: Israel tonight is considering the possibility of a temporary truce in its war against Hamas. Now, Israeli warplanes have killed at least 375 Palestinians in the past four days, most of them Hamas officials and policemen. Those attacks are now entering a fifth day. Paula Hancocks reports from the Israeli/Gaza border.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If this is only stage one as Israel's prime minister promises, what's next? Israeli air strikes pounding Gaza for a fourth day targeting Hamas buildings and Hamas military leaders.
In between the air strikes, Gazans rush to bury their dead. The U.N. says civilians are still being killed in attacks that Israel insists are not targeted at them. Israeli officials blaming the civilian casualties on Hamas.
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, FMR ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: They are planting their rocket launchers and their rocket caches inside people's homes, in schools and universities precisely in order to use them as human shields.
HANCOCKS: Leading to the question, with will the air strikes be enough to achieve Israel's purpose -- a Gaza without rockets or with Israel put boots on the ground as the defense minister has threatened to do.
(on camera): The physical preparations for a possible ground offensive into Gaza are clear to see. We're on the Israeli/Gaza border and you can see tanks, armored personal carriers and also bulldozers all lined up pointing in the direction of Gaza.
Now, the soldiers here at this point are cleaning their equipment and waiting for an order.
(voice-over): An order which Israel says it's not afraid to give. And up until now, its objectives have not been met. Not only has it failed to stop rocket attacks from Gaza, but Hamas is hitting further from the border than ever before, 30 kilometers or over 20 miles in Israel near the southern city, Beersheba and Kiryat Malakhi, halfway between Gaza and Jerusalem.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): To the people of Israel we want to tell you that your leaders are playing with your blood so they can win more votes in the election boxes and they're giving you that illusion that they will stop our rockets if you support what your army is committing in Gaza.
HANCOCKS: Inflaming the conflict is easy. Calming it is not.
Paula Hancocks, CNN, on the Israeli/Gaza border.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Joining me now for more on the prospects of a lasting cease-fire, one of the country's most distinguished authorities on the Middle East. We're joined by Aaron David Miller, public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He's also a former adviser to six secretaries of state. And Aaron is also the author of a highly acclaimed book "The Much too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace."
And thanks very much for joining us.
AARON DAVID MILLER, WOODROW WILSON INT'L CTR FOR SCHOLARS: It's a pleasure.
PILGRIM: Today we've been hearing about an increase of forces on the ground, we've also been hearing rumors of a two-day truce, we've also been seeing this death toll mount, an all-out war. What part of that do you believe? Do you think -- what's your assessment of the situation?
MILLER: Well, clearly getting into wars is a lot easier than getting out of them. And wars some to an end when one side achieves all of its objectives or both sides conclude that they can't achieve their objectives. The first is impossible. It's clear that the Israelis won't able to destroy or topple Hamas and don't want to reoccupy the Gaza strip. At the same time Hamas will not be able to inflict the kind of damage on Israel that they want.
I suspect this will go on for a while longer. The Israelis will probably move into limited ground incursions and the objective here, their objective, is to destroy as many of the rocket infrastructure as possible and kill as many Hamas operatives. Hamas' objective is to replicate the political victory that Hezbollah achieved in the summer of 2006.
To be able to say, when this is over, we can launch rockets at Israeli cities and we stood up to the most powerful military in the Middle East. At the end of the day, I'm afraid, that this violence, this confrontation, is not going to produce the kind of political opening that would hopefully try to resolve it.
PILGRIM: Yeah. Who actually -- well, let me ask you, President Bush talk to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian authority, they also -- Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak. What can the United States do, who can they talk to and what kind of influence can they have in this kind of a situation?
MILLER: Very little. Right now, the influence and the momentum belongs to the parties on the ground and that is usually the way it is with these fast moving dynamic situations. I think it will be up to the next administration, President-elect Obama, to set into motion if he can, a strategy to manage if not try to diffuse what he is about to inherit which is a 100-year headache.
PILGRIM: Yeah. What -- obviously the Obama administration is focused on this. Secretary of State Clinton, if she is confirmed. What should they be doing? What should they be saying or should they bide their time at this point?
MILLER: I'd buy the talking point that it's only one president at a time. On January 21, President Obama is going to find himself in an investment trap on this particular issue, with the 100-year headache. He can't fix this and he can't run away from it, which means, sadly, he's going have to try to manage it. And he wasn't elected to do this. He was elected to be the president of fixing America's broken house, not the war president and not the peace president, but he's going to have to get involved. And his secretary of state, this will be the first test, not only of her competency and her authority, but Obama's smarts, toughness and fairness because it's going to take all three to pull something out.
PILGRIM: Yeah, the American president doesn't always know what they're going to get as a challenge and I point to President Bush during 9/11. You really don't know what's coming up. Do you think that President-elect Obama is up for the job even though he had a domestic focus during his campaign? What advice would you give him? You had so much experience in this field.
MILLER: I guess, and it would be unsolicited advice. Above all, understand that you've got to see the world the way it is, not the way you want it to be. And the odds of a conflict ending agreement between the Israelis and that Palestinians, right now, are slim to none. He's going to have to manage it. He's going to have to empower his secretary of state to be active.
He's going to have to work with the Egyptians to try to broker another informal set of accommodations between Israel and Hamas. He's going to have to launch an economic initiative, not just on the West Bank, but to deal with humanitarian crisis and the economic infrastructure crisis left in the wake of this confrontation.
And he's ultimately going have to find himself, probably, or the secretary of state, in the middle of quiet -- hopefully quiet -- discussions between Israelis and Palestinians about the big issues - Jerusalem, borders, refugees and security. The real opportunity, I think, exists not on the Israeli/Palestinian track, but in the prospects and possibilities of an Israeli/Syrian agreement and this, to me, is perhaps the most intriguing new feature of this situation. It will involve dealing with the Iranians, a new relationship with the Syrians. But it seems to me within a couple years, if he's tough, smart and fair, an Israeli/Syrian peace treaty is not out of the question and that would be an enormous accomplishment.
PILGRIM: You know, for a person who refers to a 100-year headache that sounds very hopeful. Do you think a solution is possible within the duration of this next administration?
MILLER: Not on the Israeli/Palestinian track. Jerusalem, borders, refugees and security, the issues are too tough, the leaders are too weak and the situation on the ground is simply too out of control.
You know, America is kind of like Gulliver. We have all the right intentions, but we're wander around in a land that we believe is filled with diplomatic opportunities and we're being tied into knots by small powers who will always have a greater stake in the outcome of the struggle than we ever could. And in order to deal with this, again I'll come back to what I said earlier, this president, perhaps more than any other, has to see the world the way it is, not just the way he wants it to be. Unlike the last, who allow its ideology and its conviction to create a Middle East that could not possibly be produced, this one has to be a lot smarter, tougher, and when it comes to Arab/Israeli peace, a lot fairer.
PILGRIM: Aaron David Miller, thank you very much for being on the program and giving us your sage advice. Thank you very much.
MILLER: It's a pleasure, Kitty.
PILGRIM: Up next, more on how this crisis could affect President-elect Obama's agenda and also Democrat Al Franken leads the Minnesota Senate race by a slight margin and will a winner be declared before the Senate convenes next week? We'll tell you about that. And Senate Democrats vow to block the Illinois governor's pick for Obama's former Senate seat. And we'll discuss all of those stories with three of the best political analysts in the country. Stay with us.
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PILGRIM: Joining me are three of the best political analysts in the country. They are all CNN contributors. We're joined by former White House political director and Republican strategist, Ed Rollins. "New York Daily News" columnist and the host of the "Morning Show" on WWRL, Errol Louis. And Democratic strategist, Hank Sheinkopf.
And gentlemen, thank you. Always a pleasure. Let's talk about Blagojevich because this has really been quite an entertaining and disturbing little wrinkle this afternoon. The governor insisting on nominating his one-time opponent Roland Burris. Let's just listen to what he had to say to start this discussion.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV ROD BLAGOJEVICH, ILLINOIS: Roland Burris is no stranger to the people of our state. He has had a long and distinguished career serving the people of Illinois. He will be a great United States senator. And now I'd like to ask everyone to do one last thing. Please don't allow the allegations against me to taint this good and honest man.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: Hank, assessments of this move?
HANK SHEINKOPF, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Very smart politically. Going to be tough for people to try to say well, you can't do that, governor, because that's his power and I defy Harry Reid, frankly, or anyone else with a brain, or to defy him to stand up and say you won't seat this guy when you consider the dynamics of the state of Nevada and the changing electorate there which has become increasingly more African-American. ERROL LOUIS, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: Yeah, he's really set it up. Blagojevich has as a civil rights kind of an issue. You know? To deny him his seat. And let's keep in mind, getting that seat, even in a week before the rest of the new senators come in, gives him seniority over something like six new senators. It actually matters. It's very important. And for them to threaten to not seat this man, who is really in no way involved in any of the scandal, it would not only be unfair, but it would start a bit of a ruckus.
PILGRIM: Is it a credible threat that can be acted on?
LOUIS: Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. But, you know, this is an example I think of all of the people trying to pursue the Illinois governor overstepping. You know, you have all of this whole cast of characters in Illinois and they've all have fallen over themselves to try and knock him out of the box and try and besmirch him, and I think it's beginning to backfire.
PILGRIM: Ed, your thoughts?
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Rightly or wrongly, the governor has the power to basically appoint this man. You cannot question his qualification. He's been the attorney general, he's been the state controller, he's been elected four times statewide, he's run numerous other times. I think I'd let it go if I was Harry Reid.
I think, it's two years left of the sentence -- I shouldn't say sentence -- Freudian slip -- two years left of the, hopefully more the sentence we'll able to talk about later -- two years left of the term, then anybody who wants to run can run in 2010. He's 73, my sense is, he's a horse holder as opposed to someone who's going to be there long-term. And I think to have a fight over the qualifications or who did what, where, I think would be very destructive.
PILGRIM: All of this talk about a special election. Do you think it could happen?
ROLLINS: It can happen. I mean, certainly the legislature could have made it happen, but you can't take away the powers of an incumbent governor. I mean, you can't do it after the fact and I think it would be a very foolish process. They could have done it two weeks ago, they didn't have the guts to do it, so I think they got to live with it at this point in time.
SHEINKOPF: I think both the men are correct. It's the law in Illinois, says the governor makes the appointment. The legislature didn't act, as Ed noted. The ruckus that Errol sites, and first brought up, could occur. Why bother? Let it alone, let Burris be seated and go forward.
ROLLINS: And there's no other African-American in the Senate.
PILGRIM: We did hear President-elect Barack Obama speak about it today, though. What are your thoughts about that?
SHEINKOPF: He ought to be the president-elect and keep his nose out of this one. Why? No good can come of it. Let it happen.
ROLLINS: I agree with that. I was surprised he stepped into it.
PILGRIM: All right, let's move on to the other issue that's very much dominating the headlines and that's Israel. And we have had a fierce fight going on. We've had mixed -- I'm sure you heard the last interview that we had -- mixed reports about what exactly is going on about a possible truce (INAUDIBLE). What's your estimate of what's happening now in terms of the American response?
SHEINKOPF: America doesn't have much to do with this conflict. This is facts on the ground, a response by the Israelis to extraordinary numbers of rockets at civilians and deaths by civilians. The attempt has been to knock out the enemy. The Americans have absolutely nothing to say about it. This is an Israeli decision and frankly the new Obama administration isn't in power yet, one president at a time.
PILGRIM: But it will be something he'll have to deal with -- Errol.
LOUIS: Oh sure, and he is stepping into a mess. I think the most intriguing part of all of this is very much as your guest said that all of the powers there have an interest in this happening. You know, the Israeli politicians, they have an election in February, they want to appear strong, they want to make up for military defeat they suffered in 2006.
You have Hamas, which is a rejectionist group that wants to show that it's fighting; it's standing up against Israel. It's going to get money for this, it's going to get prestige, it's going to get power. They have a vested interest in playing this thing out. And everybody knows, every single person, I think, looking at this knows that. The only place they're going to end up at, at best, is a cease- fire. And so, we're going to end up right where we started.
PILGRIM: Yeah. Ed, I'm going to defer your comment until after the break. We're going to take a quick break and we'll be back with our panel in just a moment. Coming up at the top of the hour, we have Campbell Brown, NO BIAS, NO BULL. And Tom Foreman is sitting in for Campbell.
Tom, what are you working on?
TOM FOREMAN, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi Kitty. Well, it could be a game changer in the scandal over Barack Obama's old Senate seat. The governor of Illinois names a replacement in spite of all of the warnings he's faced. Now that he has, race could play a factor. We're going to tell you who's saying what tonight and they are saying a lot.
In Gaza, Hamas refuses to back down. Israel considers a truce after days of deadly air strikes.
And with the new year in our sights, what better time to pull out the NO BIAS, NO BULL crystal ball. We'll doing all of the readings in a busy night of news here, Kitty, at the top of the hour.
PILGRIM: We look forward to it, Tom foreman.
A reminder now, to join Lou Dobbs on the radio, Monday through Friday for the LOU DOBBS SHOW. Go to loudobbsradio.com to find the local listings for the LOU DOBBS SHOW on the radio. We'll be right back with much more from our political panel, right after this. Stay with us.
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PILGRIM: We are now back with our panel, Ed Rollins, Errol Louis, and Hank Sheinkopf. Gentlemen, we have President-elect Obama, who is going to inherit this issue, and some say that with should engage Hamas. Now, and have actual discussions with Hamas. President-elect Obama had talked about engaging Iran in his campaign, what do you think about that as a strategy for Obama? Or do you think it's just sort of romantic theorizing?
ROLLINS: Well, I think it's romantic theorizing. They're terrorists, even though they were elected by the people, there, they're not seeking democracy. The whole thing is such a tragedy, but as President Obama said several weeks ago that he would not react very well if someone was shooting rockets at his daughter's home.
And I think to a certain extent many people are condemning the Israelis, and I think, wrongly, they didn't start this, they're trying to protect their border and they're not shooting rockets and haven't been for that period of time, into the Palestinian homes.
I think this thing has to be stopped and I think the regional people have got to step in, the Egyptians and more. There's very little we can do at this point in time and I'm not sure engaging with Hamas, that are terrorists, is going to be a valid pursuit.
PILGRIM: That's a fair comment. You know, I'd like to ask you, Ed, you know, President-elect Obama has been fairly silent on this, he says "one president at a time," obviously, but you know, he and John McCain were really frequently weighed in on a lot of international issues, Russia, when Russia attacked Georgia, in the campaign. Is this the moment for silence?
ROLLINS: Well, I think it's the time. I think it's the moment for silence. I mean, I think it's still -- it's one thing to talk about it in the campaign of what I would do, in 20 some-odd days he's going to have to do it. And I think to a certain extent, you know, let the Bush team get through it as best as they can and then on the 21st it's his and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's responsibility and will be for the next four years or beyond.
PILGRIM: Before we continue, I'd actually like to actually put forward a comment that was made by the deputy press secretary at the White House, Gordon Johndroe, let's listen to that for a moment.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GORDON JOHNDROE, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECY: This is a conflict with two sides, and both of -- both these sides, I think, know how to end this. Hamas stops firing rockets and Israel will not see a need to protect its people from rocket attack.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PILGRIM: Now, you know, many in the Arab world are calling for a more even-handed approach. That certainly wouldn't suggest -- that does suggest a propensity to see the Israeli side of the issue. What do you think of that discussion? Should we take a more even-handed approach?
SHEINKOPF: What is more even-handed mean? Would that the same people protested against what they think is an excessive Israeli response, would that they had the same amount of anger while Israeli children and Israeli homes were being destroyed in (INAUDIBLE) and in the north by Hezbollah? Nobody said a word, but suddenly it's a problem.
They stop firing rockets, the Israelis will stop doing what they're doing? Most normal people, except for those who wear suicide belts around their bodies would not want to engage in such kind of war. Why? The Israelis have much to lose, too.
PILGRIM: Right. That's right. You know, I would also like to also bring up an article that was actually put forward by our CNN contributor, Michael Goodwin. He was writing in the "Daily News," and he was talking about Obama and how he has to stand firm on Israel. And let's read it.
"...the next president must be prepared to say clearly and without caveat that America has a special relationship with Israel and that its security is not negotiable." That speaks to the point that you just made. We have the Arab League meeting, we have President Sarkozy potentially going into the region, soon. Errol, what do you think about this sort of standing firm on our position? Is that...
LOUIS: If I remember the campaign right, in almost exactly those words, we heard that more than once from Barack Obama. I don't think that that baseline position is going to change in any way, shape, or form. I think, thought, that it does have to expand to include more. I mean, the White House spokesman, although, actually -- statement was absolutely correct, but there's this question of who controls the borders, what's going to happen with the economy there, what's going to be the ultimate fate of these refugee camps.
And you can defer those questions, but to act as if they have nothing to do with this situation I think is just not realistic. And again, we have to look at the situation as it is. If Obama, I think is wise, what he'll do is immediately start trying to create some kind of dialogue through Egypt, though Syria, through some of the other powers, through Saudi Arabia and try to sort of encircle Hamas with Arab powers that it has to respect, it has to listen to. A direct negotiation with the United States, I don't see that happening any time soon. PILGRIM: How fast will he have to do this -- Ed.
ROLLINS: You know, my sense is he has so much on his plate, it depends on the escalation. Three weeks from now, it might be quieted down somewhat. If there's a full-scale war there, then obviously it's front and center and I would expect his foreign policy team, which is a first-rate team, will step in while he focuses on other things.
PILGRIM: Yeah. Thanks very much, Errol Louis, Hank Sheinkopf, and Ed Rollins. Thank you.
Still ahead, the results of tonight's poll. We have some more of your thoughts. Stay with us, we'll be right back.
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PILGRIM: Tonight, we have our poll results and 73 percent of you think that embattled Illinois governor, Rob Blagojevich, should not be allowed to appoint someone to fill President-elect Obama's Senate seat.
We have time for some more of your thoughts and we have an e-mail from Jeannie in North Carolina: "How in the world can the people in Congress, who are supposed to represent 'we the people,' fail to include that the U.S. automakers be retired to use U.S.-made parts."
And we heard from Ed in Georgia: "Congress should be required to take a geography course. They are unable to locate the USA."
And a -- have Layman in Missouri wrote to us: "Lou, I keep voting, but the crooks keep getting into Congress anyway."
And Warren, in Louisiana: "Lou, I don't know what the fuss is all about over the sale over the Illinois Senate seat. We have always known they were for sale otherwise we wouldn't have had all the lobbyists."
We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts, go to loudobbs.com. And thanks for being with us tonight. Please join us tomorrow. For all of us here, thanks for watching, good night from New York.
Campbell Brown, NO BIAS, NO BULL, starts right now with Tom Foreman sitting in for Campbell.
