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Lou Dobbs This Week
New Hampshire Primary; U.S. Trade Policy
Aired January 05, 2008 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: Tonight, a high-stakes election battle in New Hampshire after a major earthquake in the presidential campaign. Independently-minded voters pushing Mike Huckabee and Senator Barack Obama to victory in Iowa. Will Huckabee and Obama maintain their momentum in a new state? And Senator Hillary Clinton apparently accusing me of being full of hot air on the issue of illegal immigration. With so much hot air, it's hard to imagine anyone discerning it on the campaign trail. We'll be talking about that and a lot more, next on LOU DOBBS TONIGHT.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS this week. News, debate, and opinion. Here now, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening, everybody. Presidential candidates tonight are intensifying their campaigns in New Hampshire after a stunning finish in the Iowa caucuses. Mike Huckabee winning the Republican contest. Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic fight. Both Huckabee and Obama easily defeating their rivals. Representing continuity with the past, Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hillary Clinton. In just a moment, we'll be previewing the primary battle shaping up in New Hampshire with two of the very best political analysts in this country.
But first, John King with a report on the startling conclusion to the Iowa caucuses.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Iowa's verdict is change.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Years from now, you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment. This was the place where America remembered what it means to hope.
KING: And more change.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: A new day is needed in American politics, just like a new day is needed in American government. And tonight, it starts here in Iowa.
KING: The first votes dramatically reshaped the race for president in both parties. New and different, winning out candidates more familiar...
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now, you know, we have always planned to run a national campaign.
KING: And with deeper pockets.
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You win the silver in one event. It doesn't mean you're not going to come back and win the gold in the final event. And that we're going to do.
KING: On now to New Hampshire. And Barack Obama senses a chance to deliver the knockout blow.
OBAMA: They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high.
KING: Democratic turnout was way up. And Obama's victory was convincing. Senator John Edwards vowed to fight on, while Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd bowed out. But the biggest question among Democrats is whether Senator Clinton has the resilience that became her husband's trademark.
CLINTON: Who will be the best president on day one? I am ready for that contest.
KING: Questions for Republicans too. Evangelicals powered the big Huckabee win in Iowa, but the former Baptist preacher faces more difficult terrain in libertarian New Hampshire. Senator John McCain is the favorite there now, and under attack by Romney. But he cannot afford to lose again. McCain says his rival is ignoring Iowa's lesson.
JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That negative campaigns don't work. They don't work there. And they don't work here in New Hampshire. They're not going to work.
KING: John King, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Joining me now for more on the primary election and the sort of earthquake conclusion to it, two members of the best political team anywhere, senior political analyst Bill Schneider, senior political analyst Gloria Borger. Good to have you both here. Great job last night.
Let me start going with you. Obama blew the doors out.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: He did. Honestly, Lou, I have never heard a speech like that after the Iowa caucus. And I think the truth of the matter is, Obama's playing a different game. Hillary Clinton -- it's such a generational shift that we're seeing. Hillary Clinton's speech, while very gracious, Hillary was talking about I've got the most support, I've got the most money, I'm inevitable, I should be president. She was still saying that.
Obama was sort of rising above it all in a very post-partisan way. And it was inspirational. So the question is do you want inspiration? Or do you really want competence because you think that inspiration will be too much of a risk?
DOBBS: Lord, may we not have to make that choice in 2008.
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It's possible to be inspiring and competent, I think.
DOBBS: Let's turn to the prospects of that on the Republican side, Huckabee also blowing the doors off.
SCHNEIDER: Exactly right. And in many ways, they're very similar, because neither Huckabee, nor Obama talks like a typical politician. That's one of the things that Republicans were attracted to Huckabee about. They said he says what he believes. Very few Republicans said that about Mitt Romney.
And in the same way, you know, as Gloria was saying, Obama doesn't sound cautious and calculating and evasive like a typical politician. They both have that in common. They don't sound like typical politicians.
DOBBS: They at least sound authentic is one way to refer to that.
BORGER: Very important.
SCHNEIDER: Yes.
DOBBS: But I have to say, to me, they both sounded authentic. And I was sort of struck by that, because I think as anyone who watches this broadcast knows, I don't have a dog in this hunt.
BORGER: Right.
DOBBS: I'm not particularly taken with any of these candidates. But I have to say that Edwards, Huckabee, Obama, and I think Clinton were compelling figures last night for different reasons, as you suggest, Gloria.
BORGER: Yes, I think this long race has done something really interesting, Lou. I think the professional candidates, if you will, haven't worn well.
DOBBS: Right.
BORGER: And the folks who sort of came out nowhere, the Obamas and the Huckabees, did very well. And that's really indicative of what we're going to see in this 2008 election. People want...
DOBBS: That's an interesting...
BORGER: ...the word "change" is so overused. But honestly, that's what they want.
DOBBS: Bill, they want change, but is what Gloria's saying, which I think is exact, does it also raise the specter that as we've see - as we gain greater familiarity with the Huckabees and the Obamas, that they're going to be relegated to that same sort of disdain that the electorate feels for other candidates? SCHNEIDER: That's been known to happen with inspiring candidates in the past. The bloom fades, you know. The odor begins to sound -- smell fowl. But you know, right now, there's a kind of love affair.
They're both not just, unlike typical politicians, inspiring. They're both anti-establishment figures. Obama's running against the Democratic party's establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton. And so is Huckabee. He talks about running against the Washington establishment. But they don't have a candidate yet to run against them.
BORGER: Here's the risk now, as you head into New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's campaign has said today they're going to have contrast between Hillary Clinton and Obama, which is a really nice way of saying they're going on the attack.
DOBBS: Yes, they're going to...
BORGER: And when they go on the attack, you know, they are. And is that a risky, is that a risky strategy?
SCHNEIDER: Yes.
BORGER: I think so. I think she's got five days.
DOBBS: But those are calculations for the candidates. And you know, the people right now, I think we've moved to -- and you -- you were getting us there. People don't care about the candidates per se. They care about candidates who care about them. A And we're starting to see that reflection now in the language of these candidates, particularly Huckabee, Obama, as you suggest. Certainly, Edwards, Ron Paul even.
People are starting to move to the center of this campaign. People are -- the candidates are being forced to recognize people count in this country still, despite all of the money spent by corporate America, the special interests, the socio-ethno centric interests. I'm getting - I'm starting to get excited about the sizabilities.
SCHNEIDER: My goodness, well, there's something else that Huckabee and Obama have in common, which is they try to reach across the great divide in America, the red, blue lines. Obama is an inspirational figure, who is certainly a liberal Democrat. But he talks about bringing people together. He crosses lines of race and religion and generation. And Huckabee also, he's not a mean or harsh partisan. He doesn't try to be divisive. He tries to work with others. And so, both of them sort of fulfill a longing in the electorate for someone who can be a unifier.
DOBBS: Let's quickly look at these issues, because it's startling. For the Democrats, the top issue, the war in Iraq. Just as we expected every news organization and polling organization saw that coming, the economy. At the same level, however, of concern for Democrats in Iowa, going to those caucuses, and then health care. For Republicans, the number one issue, not the war in Iraq, but illegal immigration. The economy, as with the Democrats second, terrorism and then the war in Iraq. Let me ask you both, illegal immigration not mentioned on the part of the Democrats? That's extraordinary.
SCHNEIDER: It wasn't asked.
DOBBS: Wasn't asked?
SCHNEIDER: Wasn't asked. The questionnaire was written by a consortium of all of the networks and the Associated Press.
DOBBS: Right.
SCHNEIDER: And the view, I didn't write this questionnaire, but the view, as I understand it, was illegal immigration isn't an issue being widely debated in the Democratic race. And...
DOBBS: Arrogant elite in the national news media.
BORGER: The black man and the elephant is what it sounds like, a conference call thing that was written, because it's interesting....
DOBBS: But it's really ignorance. Because this is an issue, and as you will stipulate that we've been covering here for years, but the idea that this is a number one issue for the American people. It's reflected in poll after poll. And that a consortium doing work on polling of these -- the entrance polling in the case of the caucuses in Iowa, to keep that question out, this is precisely the voter that Obama and Huckabee are appealing to, and who are going to have their way, it looks like in 2008.
BORGER: You know...
DOBBS: So we are seeing the beginning of a process. It's off to a cracker jack beginning. And thank you both, Gloria. Thank you, Bill...
SCHNEIDER: OK.
DOBBS: ...for being here. Look forward to seeing you in New Hampshire. Just a couple of days away. Thank you.
Still ahead here, Communist China accelerating its aggressive military buildup and challenge to American interests all around the globe. A challenge, by the way, being conveniently ignored by the entire Bush administration. We'll have that report.
And a bleak warning about the future of what is left of this nation's manufacturing. We'll have that special report: war on our middle class.
And Senator Clinton apparently accuses me of being full of hot air. At least that's what "Newsday" speculates on the issue of illegal immigration. Well, I'll breathe a little life into her considerations on the issue of illegal immigration here next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: This week, we reported Communist China is escalating its military and economic challenge to U.S. interests around the globe. China's aggressive military buildup, in part, is designed to challenge American military dominance in space. Christine Romans has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This picture surfacing on the Internet last month may be of a new Chinese space plane. In an op-ed in "The Wall Street Journal Asia" edition, Defense expert Richard Fisher says if legitimate, it is evident that Chinese engineers may be much farther along than previously thought in developing a military space plane. China has already put a man in space, but he says, the Chinese had have long aspired to a space plane for many reasons.
RICHARD FISHER, INTL. ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGY CTR.: For the conduct of active military missions, such as attacking targets on earth or in space, and for the conduct of passive missions, such as launching small satellites or even launching missiles that would attack enemy satellites.
ROMANS: Chinese military ambitions in space have become clear over the past year and a half. China has blinded a U.S. reconnaissance satellite with a ground based laser. It destroyed one of its own weather satellites with anti satellite missile, a critical milestone, experts say, since most American military communications rely on satellites. The bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently warned of these ominous projections of power.
CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, U.S.-CHINA COMMISSION: If they can wipe out one of our satellites, which they have demonstrated that they could do, they could down the communications that are essential to our ability to fight a war.
ROMANS: But the view in Washington is that trade with China is a force for democracy in the world's largest and richest Communist nation. Chinese officials have consistently said they favor peace and stability.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Compelling new evidence that Communist China may sell American technology to rogue regimes in both Iran and Syria. Gordon Chang is one of the world's leading authorities on China and its military build-up. He's also the author "The Coming Collapse of China." Gordon believes the rush to approve deals with Communist China on the part of this administration is straightforwardly an indication that commercial interests are overwhelming foreign policy and national security interests on the part of the Bush administration. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GORDON CHANG, AUTHOR, "COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA": You see all of these attempts to preapprove Chinese companies to import U.S. technology without approvals. This is just incredible, because these Chinese companies take the technology and they transfer it to the Chinese military. And then, of course, the Chinese military then turns around and sends it to places like North Korea, Iran, and Syria. So this is just terrible policy on our part.
DOBBS: Terrible policy, but a continuation and an acceleration of what the Bush administration had put in place. And before it, the Clinton administration in point of fact. The idea that six months ago further controls were removed, allowing dual use technology to be moved from the United States to Communist China. What in the world is going on?
CHANG: This is ludicrous. You know, we can't prevent the Chinese from stealing U.S. technology in the U.S. You know, now how are we going to prevent the Chinese when our technology is already in Chinese hands in China.
You know, the Bush administration is not protecting the United States, because it is failing to exercise common sense.
DOBBS: In my judgment, it's constitutional responsibility, which is to protect the national interests and provide for the safety of the American people. But this administration is in disregard of a number of tenets - of responsibility in part of leadership.
What in the world should we see this administration do? What is -- is there an answer that is straightforward that could be effective in terms of U.S.-China policy?
CHANG: Well, I think the first thing we have to do is hold China to account. You know, everyone says we need to integrate China into the international community. But as we do that, China is permitted to do all sorts of bad things. And then Washington doesn't say anything, from trade to defense to every single relationship.
DOBBS: You mentioned the party, in neither House of Congress, nor the part of the White House. Why, in your judgment, are none of the political presidential candidates seeking their party's nomination, whether Democrat or Republican, addressing these issues?
CHANG: Well, you know, you're right. This has been a bipartisan failure. Bush administration, Clinton administration, and administrations before that. And I think largely because they see, sort of this economic relationship with China as preempting everything else, including the security concerns of our country.
DOBBS: Gordon Chang, good to have you with us. Thank you.
CHANG: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: Coming up next here, a disturbing new report that shows this nation's factory workers face a bleak future. And it may simply be too late in the minds of many experts to turn things around. I don't believe that. Let's find out. We'll have that report.
Senator Clinton apparently takes a swipe at me. At least, that's what "Newsday" says. She says I'm full of hot air on the issue of illegal immigration. Well, I'm not the one having to recast my views every month. We'll have more on that and more next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TIME STAMP: 1820:47
DOBBS: Illegal immigration, as we've reported here extensively, is a growing and important issue for voters in Iowa and nearly every other state in this union. And the presidential candidates have finally begun to respond. Some are proposing their own plans to zeal with the illegal immigration crisis. But other presidential hopefuls apparently don't welcome a mention of the issue, let alone a debate.
As Louise Schiavone reports, Senator Clinton says my concerns about the issue of illegal immigration are just as she put it, "all that hot air."
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOUISE GIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Illegal immigration, despite all the talk and all the promises, it's the unfinished work of this Congress and this president.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's in the nation's interest to get a (INAUDIBLE) bill done. I believe we can get it done. I'll see you at the bill signing.
SCHIAVONE: There never was a final bill or a signing, leaving states and localities to do what Washington could not.
MARK KRIKORIAN, CENTER FOR IMMIG. STUDIES: The activity to regain control over the immigration system really needs to come both at the federal level and at the late state and local level.
SCHIAVONE: As last year ended, close to 300 immigration related measures became law in 46 states. The issue is alive.
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People here illegally are going to have to get in line with everybody else with no special pathway for to become a citizen.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We need to make it clear that we will say no to amnesty and no to sanctuary cities.
SCHIAVONE: It's ranked second as a concern among Republicans, only behind the economy in the latest CNN Opinion/Research Corporation poll in Iowa. And although polls indicate it's less important to Democrats, candidates have had plenty to say about it. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're not going to be able to solve the problem if we're just shouting about it, you know, like Lou Dobbs and folks on television.
SCHIAVONE: This week, Senator Hillary Clinton leveled this apparent swipe at CNN's Lou Dobbs.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There are even some commentators who are doing extremely well for themselves by making this a very hot issue. But ask yourself, does all that hot air solve anything?
SCHIAVONE: That so-called hot air did generate enough heat to help crush what both sides considered to be a flawed immigration bill, not just last year but two years in a row. And it helped derail a highly controversial effort in the state of New York to give drivers licenses to illegals.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHIAVONE: Lou, voters this year are looking for leaders who are not unlike the commentators and local officials who have shaken off Washington's paralysis. Voters, after all, know all too well the economic, social and security problems borne of illegal immigration. Lou?
DOBBS: Louise, thank you very much. You know, it's hard for me to understand why Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, for that matter, why they decided to take me on on this issue. But be that as it may, I hope that they'll find our views here at least illuminating over time. Thank you. Louise Schiavone from Washington.
Time now for some of your thoughts. Sandi in Connecticut said, "Keep up the good work. You speak for the American middle class not the politicians. What a sad bunch of candidates for president."
And Benita in Pennsylvania, "Finally, this country has someone telling the truth! Between the government telling me I'm too rich for any type of aid and my paycheck saying I'm too poor to be middle class, I welcome ANYONE who is willing to address what America's not doing for its own people! Thank you, Lou."
And Richard in Arizona, "Dear Lou, you are the greatest. No other American has shown the intelligence, persistence, and soulfulness to inform and influence the American voter as to the real issues of our time. My wife and I have now registered as Independents, as have so many other former Democrats and Republicans. We watch your show faithfully."
And you and your wife are two of my favorite people right now. Thank you for those very kind words. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs.com. Each of you whose e-e-mail is read here receives a copy of my new book "Independents Day." It is the book that corporate America, the Democratic party, the Republican party, they certainly don't want you reading it. Coming up here next, gasoline prices are rising. Real wages are declining. Well paying manufacturing jobs are all but disappearing. And they may never come back in the views some of authorities. We'll have a special report.
And President Bush now preparing for a major peace mission in the Middle East. Will that visit jumpstart peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians? What will it do, if anything? We'll have the report.
And independent voters will determine the outcome of the next presidential election battle in New Hampshire. Joining me, some of the best political minds in the country. They'll give us their assessment of what's coming up in New Hampshire. We'll be right back. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TIME STAMP: 1827:53
DOBBS: The war on the middle class intensifies in this country. Our workers continue to lose ground. Real wages are declining and factory production is declining as well.
Bill Tucker now reports that there are new concerns and rising concerns about whether American manufacturing will ever fully recover from the misguided policies of the past decade.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): U.S. manufacturing appears to be in trouble. There was a sudden unexpected downturn in production last month. The news comes only two weeks after President Bush warned of some economic trouble on the horizon.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I fully understand the pinch some of you folks are going to feel. And having said that, this economy's pretty good. Definitely some storm clouds and concerns, but the underpinning is good.
TUCKER: But from 1997 through 2006, manufacturing output in this country fell. At the same time, imports from foreign manufacturers rose more than 58%. And factory employment declined, falling from 17 million in January of 1997 to 14 million in December of 2006. Sectors that lost ground included telecom hardware, aircraft engines, semiconductors, medical equipment, and pharmaceuticals.
ALAN TONELSON, U.S. BUSINESS & INDUSTRY COUNCIL: The question of whether we can pull out of this nose dive is really the $64,000 question, because the faster our manufacturing base shrinks, the less capacity we have to generate the output.
TUCKER: Dave Frengel represents a broad alliance of companies lobbying for reforms in trade policy.
DAVE FRENGEL, PENN UNITED TECHNOLOGIES: They're losing not because they're not doing the microeconomics right. Not because they're not doing the innovation and, you know, lean manufacturing. But because they've been cheated, because they're competing against subsidized imports.
TUCKER: Workers feel the pinch, too, not only in the lack of job security, but in their paychecks. A fact that even ardent free trade economist Paul Krugman recently conceded in "The New York Times."
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAUL KRUGMAN, ECONOMIST: "It's hard to avoid the conclusion that growing U.S. trade with third world countries reduces the real wages of many and perhaps most workers in this country. Those who are worried about trade have a point."
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: The U.S. Business and Industry Council, which did the analysis is concerned that as output declines and the shift to foreign manufacturers continues, America will lose its innovative edge. Because as they put it, if you can't innovate if you don't have anything to innovate.
And last month, we lost another 31,000 jobs in manufacturing. And Lou, the economy overall only created 18,000 jobs in the entire country, pushing the unemployment rate to its highest rate in two year, 5%.
DOBBS: Yes, there are simply no good signs for the American worker and his or her family. And the idea that we are pursuing these policies, continue to pursue policies that empirically, factually, based on every form of available data demonstrate these policies have to change in both the Democrats, the Republicans. And these presidential candidates are simply ignoring this issue. And so is the national media not demanding that they deal with these issues.
TUCKER: They don't want to look at the facts, Lou.
DOBBS: Right.
TUCKER: You've coined the phrase "faith-based trade policy". They believe it should be right. Ergo, it must be right. And they don't want to look at the data right in front of them.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you very much. Bill Tucker.
Well, despite job losses that Bill just reported, and an unemployment rate that has risen now to 5%, President Bush said, "this economy is on a solid foundation." But the president did acknowledge there are concerns and that the government must be diligent as he put it.
President Bush met with his top economic advisers and is reportedly considering a program to stimulate this economy. That plan could be announced sometime this month. President Bush is also focusing on the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. The president, traveling to the Middle East Tuesday, that in an effort to advance a peace plan. The White House wants the Israelis and Palestinians to reach an agreement before the end of this year.
Ed Henry has our report from the White House. Ed?
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, White House officials are eager to get any kind of movement on a peace deal in order to try and help to beef up Mr. Bush's legacy, but the president may be on a collision course with the reality on the ground.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice-over): President Bush's only previous trip to Israel came ten years ago as governor of Texas. So it's year eight of his presidency for his first Mideast tour.
P.J. CROWLEY, CENTER FOR AMER. PROGRESS: He walked away from the peace process. He put it at arm's length, and has largely kept it there for seven years.
HENRY: Now the president is racing against the clock, trying to get a peace deal before he leaves office, building on this handshake at the Annapolis summit.
STEPHEN HADLEY, W.H. NATL. SECURITY ADVISER: An opportunity for the president to discuss with the Israelis and Palestinians their efforts towards a negotiated peace and achievement of the president's vision of two Democratic states, Israel and Palestine.
HENRY: But getting a breakthrough will be difficult, given the spiraling violence, as well as the unpopularity of Mr. Bush, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
AARON MILLER, WOODROW WILSON CENTER: The reality is, the leaders are weak, the gaps are large, and the time is short.
HENRY: When he took office in 2001, Mr. Bush's aides were scornful of Bill Clinton's attempt to achieve peace at Camp David in the waning days of his presidency, charging he tried to do too much too fast. But former Clinton officials insist Mr. Bush has paid a price for a go slow approach.
CROWLEY: Even with the Camp David failure, there was still a lot of material on the table that Bush administration could have pursued had it chosen to give the Middle East peace process a priority in 2001. The president took a different tact.
HENRY: Bush aides say the president's incremental approach is now bearing fruit because he can work with Abbas, unlike the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who they saw as an obstacle.
HADLEY: The president has been working fairly consistently over seven years to put in place the building blocks of what now offers an opportunity for peace.
HENRY: With his time in office dwindling, Mr. Bush is now taking his own stab at high stakes diplomacy. But it may be too little too late.
MILLER: I think the chances of achieving meaningful progress on this trip are pretty slim.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: Another challenge for the president will be keeping this trip focused on Israeli-Palestinian peace. Other issues like Iran, Pakistan, Iraq and soaring oil prices may serve as reminders that the Mideast is extremely unstable right now and Mr. Bush's efforts to bring freedom and democracy to the region are struggling. Lou?
DOBBS: Ed Henry, thank you. Ed Henry reporting from the White House.
Up next here, what are the positions of Huckabee and Obama on the war in Iraq? One of the most important issues facing the next president. And presidential candidates preparing for the New Hampshire primary. Three of the sharpest political minds in the country join me next. Stay with us. We're coming right back to discuss what could be a decisive election battle Tuesday.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Most presidential candidates have recently shifted their focus from the war in Iraq. But the war remains one of the top issues for most voters in this campaign.
Jamie McIntyre reports now on the contrasting positions of the winners in Iowa. Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When it comes to Iraq, there is a clear difference between the newly emerged frontrunners. A vote for Senator Barack Obama would be a vote for a phased withdrawal, a gradual pullout of a brigade or two a month over 16 months.
OBAMA: And I'll be a president who finally brings an end to this war in Iraq and brings our troops home.
MCINTYRE: On the other hand, a vote for Mike Huckabee, the Republican Iowa caucus winner, would be a vote for General Petraeus' strategy of cautiously reducing troop levels only as security improves.
On his official website, Huckabee spells it out. "Withdrawal would have serious strategic consequences for us and horrific humanitarian consequences for the Iraqis." Huckabee and Obama also were on opposite sides of the surge. Huckabee supported the strategy from the start. HUCKABEE: The Republicans want to win the war in Iraq. The Democrats just want to get out. That's the big difference on Iraq.
MCINTYRE: While Obama denounced the surge strategy on the Senate floor as soon as it was announced.
OBAMA: Too many lives have been lost. Too many billions of dollars have been spent for us to trust the president on another tired and failed policy.
MCINTYRE: There is another clear split between the two Iowa winners. Barack Obama opposed the initial invasion of Iraq in 2002, while Mike Huckabee was generally supportive.
(on camera): Pundits seem to agree that message out of the Iowa caucuses is that Americans wanted change. And when it comes to Iraq, Barack Obama seems to offer more change than Mike Huckabee. But the question is, with Iraq finally showing signs of stability, after five years of brutal fighting, how much change is actually needed?
Jamie McIntyre, CNN, the Pentagon.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: As the candidates debate the war, when they do, our troops, are of course, are fighting and dying in Iraq. 23 of our troops killed in Iraq in December. That is the second lowest monthly total of fatalities in this entire world. One the nation's most decorated former military commanders General David Grange said the surge strategy is only one reason for the decline in our casualties.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, I think it is working. And it's working, not only because of the surge, but the cooperation between the military and the other government agencies involved in this effort, focused on the grassroots level, which is starting to take effect in these different areas in Iraq.
DOBBS: Now the Pentagon recently announced violence in Iraq has fallen by 60%. The commanders on the ground, including Commander General David Petraeus say the security improvements are, as they put it, tenuous. Your thoughts?
GRANGE: Well, absolutely. And there's a good opportunity ahead, especially in an election year that our adversaries are preparing some type of a Tet offensive or trying to rally to get some more attention, the flash and burn to change opinions.
And right now, with things going well, there's not a lot of talk about Iraq. And in fact, our adversaries are losing traction.
DOBBS: There is one candidate who has been steadfast in his support of the president, the surge strategy. And that, of course, is Senator John McCain. Let me ask you, as one who is still, although retired from the military, still well connected and, of course, involved with the military, our military in Iraq as well.
Is it sort of frustrating to you to see that the national media and the political candidates, frankly, in both political parties, have not made as much as one might have assumed of what has been a period of success over the last 90 to 120 days in Iraq?
GRANGE: It does. And the reason being is that, well, there's several factors here. One is that many of the American people are not focused on the war either because they're not involved with any feelings for the war. In other words, we're not -- there's no sacrifices being done, except for a few.
The other is that those that ride a platform that says that we're failing in Iraq, the strategy is not working, why would you say anything right now anyway? Because the strategy is in fact working.
DOBBS: Right.
GRANGE: The good news, Lou, is that the GI, because he supports the Constitution, has an oath to the Constitution, a Democratic process, can live with that because that's their mission.
DOBBS: And in putting up with politics is something all of us have come to learn to endure. And we will have many more months of it. General David Grange, thanks for being with us.
GRANGE: My pleasure.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Coming up next, will New Hampshire prove to be as lucky for Hillary Clinton as it was for Bill Clinton? We'll be talking about that and a lot more with the best political minds in the country here next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now, two of the best political analysts in the country. In New York here, I'm joined by Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, and broadcast regular as we say. Hank, good to have you here. In our D.C. bureau, "Washington Times" columnist Diana West. Diana, as always, thank you for being here.
And she is the author of the very important book "The Death of the Grown-up" which we can't recommend too highly. And then in Manchester, New Hampshire, Jonathan Martin of politico.com, w ho we commend and recommend at the same time for his astute analysis last night in - last week in Iowa and this week in New Hampshire. Jonathan, good to have you with us.
Hank, in your -- you called this, the outcome of this race in Iowa.
HANK SHEINKOPF, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, sir.
DOBBS: What do you take away from it? SHEINKOPF: The word is not new. The word is fresh. Religion is important. Not unimportant. People are feeling a sense of unease. They're doing that which is unusual. And someone had better start talking more vision or they're going to be out of this race.
DOBBS: Including Obama and Huckabee, the winners?
SHEINKOPF: Including anybody. Americans are looking for something to hold on to. That's the pretty clear picture here. They want almost a personal relationship and they want some vision. That's why Obama got away with it. That's why Huckabee got away with it. Vision not that different. Populism, repackaged in different forms. They're afraid. They want something to hold on to. And they got it.
DOBBS: Diana, your thoughts?
DIANA WEST, WASHINGTON TIMES: Well, it sounds like what Hank is saying, is where's the beef? And I guess that's what we find out in these next contests. It will be very interesting, particularly looking at the Republican side, to move on to states where the evangelical vote will not count as heavily. We had 60% of Republicans voting where evangelicals identified themselves as evangelicals. And among non evangelicals, we see that Huckabee did not do well. He only won 14 percent of that non evangelical vote. So we don't quite know how this is all going to shake out.
DOBBS: Well, we don't know how it's going to shake out, but we do know where the next contest will be. And that is where Jonathan Martin of politico.com is. And the evangelical vote likely not to be so important there. But the Independent vote will be determinant, right?
JONATHAN MARTIN, POLITICO.COM: That's exactly right, Lou. The fact is, Obama riding a huge wave into the state where Independents, Democrats, and Republicans can all vote in whatever primary they want. And for a candidate like Obama who draws a lot of support from both Independents and Republicans, that's going to be a huge, huge asset on Tuesday.
And also keep in mind, there's not much time between the two contests. And so, the Iowa balance will probably keep going into the weekend. And then, you know, you're voting on Tuesday.
DOBBS: Voting on Tuesday. And it looks like this is going to be a battle. If we can believe the most recent polls, a battle between Romney and McCain, not Huckabee. How can this be, Hank?
SHEINKOPF: The evangelical issue has something to do with it. But I would posit the following. Those polls were probably done much before the -- last night's activities or some the day of, number one.
Number two, we have this delusional idea that somehow we're not victims or participants in the 24 hour news cycle. What people see in Iowa is what they see in New Hampshire. If they liked Huckabee, they're going to do what they think is appropriate. Remember, on the Democratic side, a man from the South, evangelical, lay minister, 1976, named Jimmy Carter, somehow he got there talking some populus rhetoric, calling for controls on government. Very Republican in his -- and today's Republican rhetoric came out of that Democratic mouth. So anything can happen here, Lou.
DOBBS: We're (INAUDIBLE) shift. You go ahead, Diana.
WEST: Well, I think a lot of it will also reveal the state of modern-day conservatism, because you know, talking about, you know, Huckabee in terms of traditional conservatism. He does not score on such issues as economics or even in our terminology now in terms of immigration. And on foreign policy, too, he's quite Carter-esque. So a lot of this will really show us the state of the Republican party and conservatism in general.
DOBBS: You know, I know you're fascinated by conservatism. And as one who just, you know, I -- in full disclosure, you know, I have - I revile ideological extremes in this country, whether liberal or conservative.
Why do we care whether this person has ideological position, so long as they have a patriotic position, a concern about the national interests and about the welfare of the American people? Isn't that far more important? And shouldn't it be, Diana West?
WEST: Well, I think that ideas are very important. And I don't know whether they can be written off in terms of evil ideological lock step beliefs, if that's kind of where you're going with that.
DOBBS: No, what I meant is where - is what I said...
WEST: A concern...
DOBBS: What I said is...
WEST: I mean I think all...
DOBBS: ...ideological extremes have very little to do with the common good of the national interest.
WEST: Well, I don't know about that. I mean, it depends what you call ideological extremes. I think that...
DOBBS: I would call conservatives...
WEST: (INAUDIBLE) low...
DOBBS: ...and liberals ideologically extreme. They're at the far end of the political spectrum.
WEST: No, I don't know.
DOBBS: We govern this nation historically from the center. And every time we move either left or right in terms of political policy, we tend to foul up big time.
WEST: Well, if you - if conservatives are people who like low taxes, I'm not sure you can call that an ideological extreme. I think all the candidates are concerned for the welfare of America. So we can make decisions on whom we like, based on what their ideas are. And so I think, you know, Huckabee, in terms of the kind of people who vote in Republican primaries, is somebody who does not fit those very...
DOBBS: Yes.
WEST: ...normal notions.
DOBBS: Let me ask you this question, Jonathan. And then I want to get to you on the same issue. OK, you are a conservative. You love that, Diana. Let me ask you this. Which one of these candidates running for the presidency in the Republican party in your judgment is a conservative?
WEST: I would say that Romney and...
DOBBS: (INAUDIBLE).
WEST: Oh, I'm sorry, I thought you were talking to me, Lou.
DOBBS: Oh, I am, Diana. And then I want to go to Jonathan.
WEST: Oh, I would say that Hunter, I would say Thompson, I would say Romney probably have positions that do tailor to that more traditional notion. I think Huckabee is someone...
DOBBS: Do you agree with that, Jon?
MARTIN: Oh, sure. I mean, I think that, you know, all of these candidates have conservative aspects, you know, of their beliefs. The question is, and this has really defined the GOP primary so far, is that some of them are less conservative on certain issues than others. And there is no sort of ideal, you know, consistent across the board conservative who is seen as electable. That's been, you know, dogging this primary since day one, back in the start of last year.
DOBBS: Your thoughts, Hank?
SHEINKOPF: Romney is no conservative in the traditional sense. Note his record as governor of Massachusetts, number one.
Number two, with respect to conservatism, I admire all the members of this panel greatly. It's changing and it's changing radically and it's changing quickly. Does McCain fit that profile? Absolutely not.
And third, what we do know about Republican voters in primaries, is they are disproportionately churchgoers, although they may not be self-identified evangelicals. That is a very different issue.
DOBBS: And the fact is that in New Hampshire, Independents are going to determine the outcome, as they may - as I certainly will in a number of - in many states across the country. Hank, do you think that we will see the same level of appeal that Independents on the part of Obama in New Hampshire that we saw in Iowa?
SHEINKOPF: He is fresh. The others are tired. As Larry Kemp wrote about someone else, may he rest in peace. And he's fresh enough to get the Independents to pay quick attention, because they liked him in Iowa.
DOBBS: And Diana, on the Republican side, who is freshest? Who's strongest?
WEST: I'm not sure who's freshest. But on the Independent notion, I think if Obama draws a number of Independents, I think that that may ultimately hurt McCain because he does rely on the Independent vote to score a victory there, I believe.
DOBBS: To the benefit of Romney?
WEST: Possibly, at this moment, yes, absolutely, in fact.
DOBBS: Jonathan Martin, you get to sum it all up. What can we expect out of New Hampshire come Tuesday?
MARTIN: On the Republican side, you're going to see a dog fight between John McCain and Mitt Romney, two fellows who don't think too much of the other. Their campaigns go about the same way. I think you're going to see one of them take a severe hit, if they don't win here in New Hampshire.
On the Democratic side, Obama's got big Mo on his side. He's got a lot of Independents and Republicans here, who are just going to be itching to come out for him on Tuesday.
DOBBS: OK, Jonathan just mentioned big Mo. I was hoping somebody would. Now that we've established where big Mo is or is likely to be, we're going to come back and we're going to find out which issues will likely determine the outcome in New Hampshire. We'll be back in just a moment. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: We're back with Hank Sheinkopf, Diana West, and Jonathan Martin. Let me turn first if I may to you, Diana. In New Hampshire, the issues, illegal immigration in Iowa, will that be as interesting and -- to New Hampshire voters as it was to Iowa voters?
WEST: Yes, I think it will. I think the issue that has gone a bit off the table is the war in Iraq. That does not seem to be scoring quite as highly. But I think immigration, certainly, on the GOP side will be very important.
And on the Democratic side, we're going to be looking, of course, at the economy. And it's interesting to me to see where Hillary will end up with this, because she's not scoring as well on these issues versus Obama, as we see, obviously, in Iowa.
DOBBS: And we found out that in terms of immigration, it's an important issue in Iowa, that the polls -- the polling consortium, the news organizations took illegal immigration off the list of poll questions for Democratic voters. Left it there for Republican voters.
Jonathan, I mean, what in the world is going on with the coverage of this election, where the issues that are, poll -- national poll after national poll, shows the issues are important.
MARTIN: Yes. Right.
DOBBS: And we've got people playing silly games here.
MARTIN: Well from my experience, Lou, reporting for the past year in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's no question about it. Immigration is a very, very hot issue. In Iowa, especially, you would go to Democrat or Republican town hall meetings. It would come up there either party. Here in New Hampshire, perhaps not as hot, but still certainly an issue, especially among Republicans, you know, Topic A among them.
But also here, Lou, taxes, a perennial issue in New Hampshire, very tax adverse in the state.
DOBBS: New Hampshire and taxes, it is wonderful. The economy, as we're watching this economy be challenged on a number of fronts, whether it's a declining dollar or the credit market crisis. The people are telling me, the Republicans, the Democrats alike aren't uniformly concerned about this economy, then I need to have my head examined because it just didn't make any sense. Jonathan, what do you think?
MARTIN: Well, look, there's no question that the economy is a concern. It's probably - it's sort of a lurking issue out there that folks aren't talking about enough. And I think in Iowa, that was part of the reason for Huckabee's success. Yes, evangelicals, but there were also folks who came out for him based upon his populous rhetoric. And I think you're going to see some of his same support here in New Hampshire.
DOBBS: Hank, you get the last word here. The issues that'll be determinant in your judgment in New Hampshire, Democrat and Republican?
SHEINKOPF: Immigration is an economic issue. And the economy will be the argument. As we've said on this program, that the war would fade, the economy would be the issue. That's where it's going. My money, John McCain and Romney, like we've been told here by the expert, will go head to head and kill each other. But will the Republicans come back to McCain is the question.
DOBBS: And a very lot of questions to be answered...
SHEINKOPF: We don't know that.
DOBBS: ...in New Hampshire. It's going to be as always fascinating. Thank you very much, Diana West. Jonathan Martin, thank you very much. Politico.com. Diana West, of course, the author of "Death of the Grown-up" and "Washington Times" columnist. Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. Good to have you all with us. And we thank you for being with us.
Joining us here tomorrow, for all of us, thanks for watching. Good night from New York.
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