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People Nonchalant About Hurricane Threat

Aired August 08, 2002 - 14:45   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: And the entire hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, with those peak times as you just heard. Well, turns out this hurricane season won't be as bad as first predicted. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has revised its forecast, and that is good news for folks along the Atlantic coast, especially in Florida.
And CNN's Miami bureau chief John Zarrella is live with more, and I imagine this is good news, but at the same time, John, I am sure people are like, Oh, yes, seeing is believing.

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF: Well, and that is the problem, too, Fredricka, because when you get these forecasts out that NOAA issued today, and Dr. Bill Gray (ph) issued yesterday, which are saying that there will be less storms this year, the revised forecast by NOAA issued today is seven to ten tropical storms, four to six of those developing into hurricanes, and one to three of those being major hurricanes, that's storms with winds in excess of 115 miles an hour.

That one to three is kind of a cop out, too, because if you have one major storm, that is not a lot, but if you have three, that really is a lot of major hurricanes, and 80 percent of the damage done by hurricanes in general is caused by major hurricanes, which comprise 20 percent of the total number of hurricanes that form, if that makes any sense.

Now, the reason for this downturn -- El Nino. It looks as if the forecasters are saying that there is going to be a little bit stronger of an El Nino that has developed in the Pacific, that is that warm weather in the Pacific, than they had originally expected. First predicting a very light, mild, El Nino. Now they believe, based on what you are seeing there, the reds and the oranges in this graph in the Pacific there indicate a strong -- a strengthening El Nino, and that image was taken just a few days ago.

Now, the last couple of years, there were lots and lots of storms in the Atlantic. There were 14 or 15 in year 2000 and 2001, but not a single storm hit the United States.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: The last time we had a hurricane hit the United States was Irene in 1999. We've gone two years now without having a hurricane strike the mainland of the United States. That happened back in 1930 and '31, and then again in 1981 and '82. We have never gone, since we have been keeping good records, three years in a row without having a hurricane hit, so the message, again, is to be prepared.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZARRELLA: Now, what is important to remember is, ten years ago, August 24, Hurricane Andrew hit the United States. That was an El Nino year, only six storms hit the U.S. that year. Andrew, of course, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Twenty-five billion dollars in damage. So, again, it only takes one. You don't have to have a lot of hurricanes out there, and in fact, one of the downfalls of what we're seeing right now, Fredricka, is that what we're hearing right now from some recent studies done by Florida State University is that people are no more ready and willing to evacuate now, ten years after Andrew, in the face of another major hurricane approaching than they were back when Andrew hit, a study that has just been released by FSU professors. So, a little bit of a mixed blessing here. The numbers may not be as high, but again, it only takes one -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: That's right. But that is pretty discouraging too, because it looks as though people have a false sense of security, they feel like, Oh, a hurricane just came and went, we were OK, so the next one -- the next warning, they just don't want to leave.

ZARRELLA: Absolutely. That is absolutely correct, and that happens a lot. If you did not experience the core of a major hurricane, you may think you went through a major -- a big hurricane. We stood right here in 1992, where I am standing now, to cover Hurricane Andrew, and it hit 25 miles south, and believe me, we thought we were in a bad storm, but it was nothing like what we saw just a few hours later down in south Dade County -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. John Zarrella, thank you very much from Miami.

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