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Middle East Expert on Iraqi Geopolitics

Aired October 16, 2002 - 14:21   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We're continuing our look deep inside Iraq all this week. And for that, we're going to continue our discussion of geography and the politics of this very, very interesting country, which is in many ways a modern country, in the fact that it was formed after World War I, but in many way, perhaps the most ancient of all civilizations are rooted there. So it's an interesting mix.
To talk a little bit about this, we turn to Dona Stewart, who is at the Middle East Center at Georgia State University.

Good to have you back with us.

DONA STEWART, GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: Let's get under the hood, if you will, and...

STEWART: Sure.

O'BRIEN: ... look at the details of Iraq, if you will. If you take a look at the image we have put together here. Starting here with North America, we rotate the globe. I don't we have to tell everybody in the audience or anybody in the audience that the basic proximity of where Iraq is. But just in case, it is in that neck of the woods right in there. I didn't draw it highly accurately there. But as we move in on it, Dona, it's about the size of Montana, with a population of about 23 million or so.

About that, yes.

O'BRIEN: We start in Basra. This is down in the south. Just to orient you a little bit, this is Kuwait here. And over here is Iran.

Tell us about the significance of Basra.

STEWART: Basra's key because it's the only port for Iraq.

O'BRIEN: OK. Down in this area, there's a series of strategic oil reserves and oil wells there. Tell us about that a little bit.

STEWART: Iraq has about 11 percent of the world's oil reserves. So this whole region here is extremely important for the oil industry in Iraq.

O'BRIEN: The predominant sect of Islam in this particular part of the country is Shia. STEWART: Right. This is Iraq's Shia population is located. It's about 65 percent of the population. One of the main concerns is the safety of the Shia population, which is why the southern no-fly zone exists.

O'BRIEN: Just to point out, Saddam Hussein is a Sunni Muslim. There was a schism back in around 600, and the Shias and the Sunnis don't get along so well. The Shias are the majority in Iraq. Nevertheless, the Sunnis rule and have ruled since Saddam Hussein came into power.

Let's go in, fly our map over to the open desert. Just to orient you here, we're talking about Saudi Arabia in the foreground. This is the open desert portion of Iraq, which we became familiar with in 1991. Many of the battles, the tank battles, were waged there. What's significant about this from a geographical standpoint?

STEWART: Well, this is the area that most people are probably familiar with, from 1991, because there were a lot of tank battles out here. We cannot expect that this will be the same type of engagement this time around. I think the planners are estimating that we'll be engaged in urban warfare environment.

O'BRIEN: Which brings us to Baghdad. Let's talk about Baghdad. Baghdad is a city of about 5 million or so in between the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers, which I probably will draw incorrectly. But it's right in this area here. This is a very fertile river basin. Literally the cradle of civilization. Some of the earliest civilizations exist. The population centers of Iraq, obviously.

STEWART: Most of us remember this from the Cradle of Civilization. This is the military, economic and political center for Iraq. It's key.

O'BRIEN: When you start talking about weapons of mass destruction, nuclear facilities, regime targets, presidential palaces, this is where they're going to be clustered around. And part of the reason for that is this no-fly zone which extends below Baghdad. I've not drawn that entirely accurately, but the point is that that southern no-fly zone almost touches the southern portion of Baghdad, doesn't it?

STEWART: Absolutely. When we look at Baghdad, one of the main concerns are these so-called presidential complexes. When the UN inspected eight of them in 1998, there were over a thousand buildings. So we're not just talking about a residential palace.

O'BRIEN: Let's move to the north a little bit to another significant spot when you think about Saddam Hussein's regime. Tikrit is his ancestral home. This is where his tribe is from. Why is this significant, why should we focus on this?

STEWART: There are also presidential complexes here. So this could be another area for Saddam to work out of. It's also strategically important for that reason. O'BRIEN: Moving to the north, we get into the Kurdish area. We talked a little bit about this in our last segment. Mosul is an area that is protected under the northern no-fly zone. It goes perhaps about like that. This area is controlled by Kurds and not really controlled by the central government in Baghdad, is it?

STEWART: That's correct.

O'BRIEN: What is significant and what is important here? Should people expect a Northern Alliance kind of a relationship here with U.S. troops in this potential conflict?

STEWART: That's a major question right now. One of the concerns is that since the U.S. did not deport the Kurds in a rebellion in 1991 that they may not be willing to do that again. However, the Kurds really would like to see a new state formation which does not have them tied to Baghdad and perhaps would include broader areas of what is the historic Kurdistan.

O'BRIEN: I have drawn here, there are some significant oil reserves there, as well, which explains a lot of why Saddam Hussein hasn't just written this part of Iraq off. For that matter, Turkey hasn't either, and the Kurds are trying to forge an independent state of this. Probably not very likely no matter which way it goes.

Thank you very much, Dona Stewart, with Georgia State University. We appreciate you being with us, helping us understand Iraq 101, continuing our primer on this country which is the focus of so much attention.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 16, 2002 - 14:21   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We're continuing our look deep inside Iraq all this week. And for that, we're going to continue our discussion of geography and the politics of this very, very interesting country, which is in many ways a modern country, in the fact that it was formed after World War I, but in many way, perhaps the most ancient of all civilizations are rooted there. So it's an interesting mix.
To talk a little bit about this, we turn to Dona Stewart, who is at the Middle East Center at Georgia State University.

Good to have you back with us.

DONA STEWART, GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: Let's get under the hood, if you will, and...

STEWART: Sure.

O'BRIEN: ... look at the details of Iraq, if you will. If you take a look at the image we have put together here. Starting here with North America, we rotate the globe. I don't we have to tell everybody in the audience or anybody in the audience that the basic proximity of where Iraq is. But just in case, it is in that neck of the woods right in there. I didn't draw it highly accurately there. But as we move in on it, Dona, it's about the size of Montana, with a population of about 23 million or so.

About that, yes.

O'BRIEN: We start in Basra. This is down in the south. Just to orient you a little bit, this is Kuwait here. And over here is Iran.

Tell us about the significance of Basra.

STEWART: Basra's key because it's the only port for Iraq.

O'BRIEN: OK. Down in this area, there's a series of strategic oil reserves and oil wells there. Tell us about that a little bit.

STEWART: Iraq has about 11 percent of the world's oil reserves. So this whole region here is extremely important for the oil industry in Iraq.

O'BRIEN: The predominant sect of Islam in this particular part of the country is Shia. STEWART: Right. This is Iraq's Shia population is located. It's about 65 percent of the population. One of the main concerns is the safety of the Shia population, which is why the southern no-fly zone exists.

O'BRIEN: Just to point out, Saddam Hussein is a Sunni Muslim. There was a schism back in around 600, and the Shias and the Sunnis don't get along so well. The Shias are the majority in Iraq. Nevertheless, the Sunnis rule and have ruled since Saddam Hussein came into power.

Let's go in, fly our map over to the open desert. Just to orient you here, we're talking about Saudi Arabia in the foreground. This is the open desert portion of Iraq, which we became familiar with in 1991. Many of the battles, the tank battles, were waged there. What's significant about this from a geographical standpoint?

STEWART: Well, this is the area that most people are probably familiar with, from 1991, because there were a lot of tank battles out here. We cannot expect that this will be the same type of engagement this time around. I think the planners are estimating that we'll be engaged in urban warfare environment.

O'BRIEN: Which brings us to Baghdad. Let's talk about Baghdad. Baghdad is a city of about 5 million or so in between the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers, which I probably will draw incorrectly. But it's right in this area here. This is a very fertile river basin. Literally the cradle of civilization. Some of the earliest civilizations exist. The population centers of Iraq, obviously.

STEWART: Most of us remember this from the Cradle of Civilization. This is the military, economic and political center for Iraq. It's key.

O'BRIEN: When you start talking about weapons of mass destruction, nuclear facilities, regime targets, presidential palaces, this is where they're going to be clustered around. And part of the reason for that is this no-fly zone which extends below Baghdad. I've not drawn that entirely accurately, but the point is that that southern no-fly zone almost touches the southern portion of Baghdad, doesn't it?

STEWART: Absolutely. When we look at Baghdad, one of the main concerns are these so-called presidential complexes. When the UN inspected eight of them in 1998, there were over a thousand buildings. So we're not just talking about a residential palace.

O'BRIEN: Let's move to the north a little bit to another significant spot when you think about Saddam Hussein's regime. Tikrit is his ancestral home. This is where his tribe is from. Why is this significant, why should we focus on this?

STEWART: There are also presidential complexes here. So this could be another area for Saddam to work out of. It's also strategically important for that reason. O'BRIEN: Moving to the north, we get into the Kurdish area. We talked a little bit about this in our last segment. Mosul is an area that is protected under the northern no-fly zone. It goes perhaps about like that. This area is controlled by Kurds and not really controlled by the central government in Baghdad, is it?

STEWART: That's correct.

O'BRIEN: What is significant and what is important here? Should people expect a Northern Alliance kind of a relationship here with U.S. troops in this potential conflict?

STEWART: That's a major question right now. One of the concerns is that since the U.S. did not deport the Kurds in a rebellion in 1991 that they may not be willing to do that again. However, the Kurds really would like to see a new state formation which does not have them tied to Baghdad and perhaps would include broader areas of what is the historic Kurdistan.

O'BRIEN: I have drawn here, there are some significant oil reserves there, as well, which explains a lot of why Saddam Hussein hasn't just written this part of Iraq off. For that matter, Turkey hasn't either, and the Kurds are trying to forge an independent state of this. Probably not very likely no matter which way it goes.

Thank you very much, Dona Stewart, with Georgia State University. We appreciate you being with us, helping us understand Iraq 101, continuing our primer on this country which is the focus of so much attention.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com