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Power Shifts in Middle East Complicate War
Aired November 04, 2002 - 14:53 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's take a look now at politics abroad, in particular some significant shifts of power for some key U.S. allies. A government with some conservative Islamist roots is taking hold in Turkey, and Israeli's prime minister is managing to keep his foothold while riding one crisis after another.
For more on all of this and why Americans should care, let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.
Bill, let's start with Israel. We're talking about Sharon there. He survived a couple of near misses today. How long do you think he can last?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: They have to have elections by next November in Israel. He did get a vote of confidence today when they tried to bring his government down.
Now, it could last probably three or four months, maybe into the spring, without another election. This is a big problem for the United States because the Sharon government will survive as a much narrower coalition. Instead of including the Labor Party and being a coalition of all the major parties in Israel, it is going to be a right wing coalition. What difference does that make? Conservatives, the right wing in Israel, does not support a two-state policy including a Palestinian state; the United States does support that policy. President Bush endorsed it one year ago at the United Nations. A lot of people on the right in Israel believe Yasser Arafat should be sent into exile; the United States opposes that policy. So there are some important points of conflict between the new Israeli government -- still Ariel Sharon -- but right wing (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the United States.
SAVIDGE: This is coming at a time when the U.S. would hope things would be relatively stable there because the U.S. wants to deal with Iraq.
SCHNEIDER: Exactly. We want a stable government of Israeli, we want Israel to be essentially pacified. One of the important things is Israel was very cautious in the Gulf War 11 years ago and did not participate in the war, even though it was under attack. We hope that we can protect Israel if we go to war with Iraq again and the Israelis will not respond rapidly and will not join the attack on Iraq if there is a war, because that could make it an all Middle East, all Arab war, in which they see the enemy not just as the United States, but as Zionism. It's going to be harder to do that, harder to hold back the Israelis if they are dominated by a right wing coalition. SAVIDGE: Quickly, talking about Turkey and the possibility of war with Iraq, there has been a change of leadership there. What is the impact for the United States?
SCHNEIDER: This government has roots in the Islamist movement, which means it is likely to be less sympathetic to using Turkey to stage air attacks on Iraq. It is a neighboring country to Iraq. It is a crucial ally to the United States, but we don't know the sympathies of this new government, a government with strong Islamist roots that may be far less sympathetic to the United States. In the Middle East, Turkey is a crucial, critical ally for the United States if we are to take military action against Iraq. Now, it's political priorities are unknown.
SAVIDGE: Bill Schneider, a political expert not only in the U.S., but around the world. Thank you very much for joining us.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 4, 2002 - 14:53 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's take a look now at politics abroad, in particular some significant shifts of power for some key U.S. allies. A government with some conservative Islamist roots is taking hold in Turkey, and Israeli's prime minister is managing to keep his foothold while riding one crisis after another.
For more on all of this and why Americans should care, let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.
Bill, let's start with Israel. We're talking about Sharon there. He survived a couple of near misses today. How long do you think he can last?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: They have to have elections by next November in Israel. He did get a vote of confidence today when they tried to bring his government down.
Now, it could last probably three or four months, maybe into the spring, without another election. This is a big problem for the United States because the Sharon government will survive as a much narrower coalition. Instead of including the Labor Party and being a coalition of all the major parties in Israel, it is going to be a right wing coalition. What difference does that make? Conservatives, the right wing in Israel, does not support a two-state policy including a Palestinian state; the United States does support that policy. President Bush endorsed it one year ago at the United Nations. A lot of people on the right in Israel believe Yasser Arafat should be sent into exile; the United States opposes that policy. So there are some important points of conflict between the new Israeli government -- still Ariel Sharon -- but right wing (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the United States.
SAVIDGE: This is coming at a time when the U.S. would hope things would be relatively stable there because the U.S. wants to deal with Iraq.
SCHNEIDER: Exactly. We want a stable government of Israeli, we want Israel to be essentially pacified. One of the important things is Israel was very cautious in the Gulf War 11 years ago and did not participate in the war, even though it was under attack. We hope that we can protect Israel if we go to war with Iraq again and the Israelis will not respond rapidly and will not join the attack on Iraq if there is a war, because that could make it an all Middle East, all Arab war, in which they see the enemy not just as the United States, but as Zionism. It's going to be harder to do that, harder to hold back the Israelis if they are dominated by a right wing coalition. SAVIDGE: Quickly, talking about Turkey and the possibility of war with Iraq, there has been a change of leadership there. What is the impact for the United States?
SCHNEIDER: This government has roots in the Islamist movement, which means it is likely to be less sympathetic to using Turkey to stage air attacks on Iraq. It is a neighboring country to Iraq. It is a crucial ally to the United States, but we don't know the sympathies of this new government, a government with strong Islamist roots that may be far less sympathetic to the United States. In the Middle East, Turkey is a crucial, critical ally for the United States if we are to take military action against Iraq. Now, it's political priorities are unknown.
SAVIDGE: Bill Schneider, a political expert not only in the U.S., but around the world. Thank you very much for joining us.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
