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A Look at Bush's Poll Numbers Going Into the State of the Union Address

Aired January 28, 2003 - 14:41   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: A big speech and a possible war. All eyes are on President Bush. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll, checks the state of popular opinion.
Frank, where does the president stand with the American people as he prepares for tonight's speech?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, Kyra, to be specific, job approval rating equaled 60 percent. That's the number that Bush goes into the speech with tonight. There's been a lot made out of the fact that his approval rating is now lower than it has been.

It fact, it was up at about 80 percent last year when he made his State of the Union address. But still, that 60 percent is above average for all presidents. It is also higher than his father was back in 1992 when he made a crucial State of the Union address himself.

Now, subcomponent-wise, which is what I am showing you here, he doesn't do as well, that is the current President Bush. His approval on the economy is now at 46 percent. That's that bottom line. That's down. In fact, that's the lowest we've measured in his whole administration. His approval on world and international affairs, that is the top line, is at 50 percent.

Both of those 10, 14 points lower than his overall approval rating. All of this sets the stage, the need for, looks like to us, the president to really get into the specifics about how he's going to deal with both of these. And, of course, that's the plan tonight.

PHILLIPS: All right. What does the public think is more important, the economy or Iraq?

NEWPORT: Well, those are the two big issues that we keep hearing about that the president will address. When we put the issue to the public, it reminds me of Bill Clinton's campaign back in 1992. It's the economy, stupid. Look on the right hand side.

Despite all of the attention on Iraq that we're seeing right now, when we ask the public what's more important, 52 percent say the economy, 37 Iraq. Probably that is why the president's is going to be spending a lot of time on his domestic concerns tonight.

Economic ratings, down, down, down. In fact, we are now having the lowest rating on our Gallup measure on the current economy than we've seen, believe it or not, since the fall of 1993. Just 20 percent there, you see on the right, rate the economy positively, excellent, or good. And look here -- 31 percent rate it poor. Those aren't great numbers. We'll see what happens to them after the president talks to the economy issue tonight -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, what about inspectors in Iraq? What does the public think? More time, less time? It's over?

NEWPORT: Well all of our polling, I think, shows that the American public right now wants to let the inspectors have more time. That's really one issue where the president is at somewhat variance from American public opinion.

Here's a question that's emblematic, I think, of a lot different questions asked in this area over the weekend. Fifty-six percent of Americans said yes to giving the inspectors more time. Obviously this is going to be what the president's going to have to address tonight.

Has he done a good job explaining his position as he goes into the speech? Well it breaks even. You can see 49 percent over the weekend said yes, 48 percent said no. This is a key.

Kyra, we'll see. That number on the left the administration's hoping will go up after the speech tonight. We'll come back and measure it and see how effective he was in explaining his position.

PHILLIPS: All right, Frank Newport, thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Union Address>


Aired January 28, 2003 - 14:41   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: A big speech and a possible war. All eyes are on President Bush. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll, checks the state of popular opinion.
Frank, where does the president stand with the American people as he prepares for tonight's speech?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, Kyra, to be specific, job approval rating equaled 60 percent. That's the number that Bush goes into the speech with tonight. There's been a lot made out of the fact that his approval rating is now lower than it has been.

It fact, it was up at about 80 percent last year when he made his State of the Union address. But still, that 60 percent is above average for all presidents. It is also higher than his father was back in 1992 when he made a crucial State of the Union address himself.

Now, subcomponent-wise, which is what I am showing you here, he doesn't do as well, that is the current President Bush. His approval on the economy is now at 46 percent. That's that bottom line. That's down. In fact, that's the lowest we've measured in his whole administration. His approval on world and international affairs, that is the top line, is at 50 percent.

Both of those 10, 14 points lower than his overall approval rating. All of this sets the stage, the need for, looks like to us, the president to really get into the specifics about how he's going to deal with both of these. And, of course, that's the plan tonight.

PHILLIPS: All right. What does the public think is more important, the economy or Iraq?

NEWPORT: Well, those are the two big issues that we keep hearing about that the president will address. When we put the issue to the public, it reminds me of Bill Clinton's campaign back in 1992. It's the economy, stupid. Look on the right hand side.

Despite all of the attention on Iraq that we're seeing right now, when we ask the public what's more important, 52 percent say the economy, 37 Iraq. Probably that is why the president's is going to be spending a lot of time on his domestic concerns tonight.

Economic ratings, down, down, down. In fact, we are now having the lowest rating on our Gallup measure on the current economy than we've seen, believe it or not, since the fall of 1993. Just 20 percent there, you see on the right, rate the economy positively, excellent, or good. And look here -- 31 percent rate it poor. Those aren't great numbers. We'll see what happens to them after the president talks to the economy issue tonight -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, what about inspectors in Iraq? What does the public think? More time, less time? It's over?

NEWPORT: Well all of our polling, I think, shows that the American public right now wants to let the inspectors have more time. That's really one issue where the president is at somewhat variance from American public opinion.

Here's a question that's emblematic, I think, of a lot different questions asked in this area over the weekend. Fifty-six percent of Americans said yes to giving the inspectors more time. Obviously this is going to be what the president's going to have to address tonight.

Has he done a good job explaining his position as he goes into the speech? Well it breaks even. You can see 49 percent over the weekend said yes, 48 percent said no. This is a key.

Kyra, we'll see. That number on the left the administration's hoping will go up after the speech tonight. We'll come back and measure it and see how effective he was in explaining his position.

PHILLIPS: All right, Frank Newport, thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Union Address>