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Interview With Professor Rob Sobhani
Aired February 12, 2003 - 13:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Amid all the talk about Iraq these days, some observers are asking this question -- what about Iran? For those who forget, Iran was once viewed as such a huge threat that Washington armed Saddam Hussein to contain it.
Today, Iran is a charter member of President Bush's axis of evil. And just this week, we've seen new questions about its nuclear intentions, and as Iraq's neighbor, it clearly has a stake in what unfolds between Washington and Baghdad.
Let's talk about this. Our guest, Rob Sobhani, is a Middle East analyst and professor at Georgetown University in Washington. Rob, good to see you.
ROB SOBHANI, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Nice seeing you, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right. So the president mentions Iran in his State of the Union address. Secretary of State Colin Powell mentions Iran in his talk last week. Then, today, CIA Director George Tenet is grilled about Iran. Let's listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE TENET, CIA DIRECTOR: We're concerned as well. We're going to follow up on that -- all of that reporting. We have some very specific data for the classified session of that specifically where the Iranian nuclear program is today, people who are supplying it, may not be supplying it. There have been some improvements in Russian behavior in this regard, but all of this is of a piece (ph), and it comes back to my serious concern about how many countries are pursuing nuclear weapons, how many countries are developing an indigenous capability to do so...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Rob, is Iran a nuclear threat?
SOBHANI: Kyra, Iran should not be in the business of acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Iran is a country with the world's second largest reserves of natural gas. There's no reason why it should be pursuing a nuclear option. But it is pursuing a nuclear option, because, as the CIA director said, and as the president mentioned, a nuclear weapon in the hands of the government of Iran means blackmail for our friends and allies in the region.
PHILLIPS: All right. So while we -- there is so much focus on Iraq, maybe we should be focusing a little bit more on Iran, and looking at what could happen there, if a war does indeed go down with Iraq, correct?
SOBHANI: Absolutely. And here, I would probably slightly disagree with the assessment of the CIA director. The dynamic inside Iran is not between reformers and hard-liners. The dynamic inside Iran today is between the people of Iran and the government of Iran that has lost total legitimacy. That's what the United States government should focus on, this division between the people and the government.
PHILLIPS: So while Iran's ruling Ayatollahs -- there's still a threat, but how much of a threat with regard to terrorism?
SOBHANI: Kyra, there is ample evidence to suggest that since 9/11, actually, Iranian government has been able to form a consortium of terror amongst the following groups: Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and now, unfortunately, al Qaeda. And the Iranian government has actually, very publicly, endorsed gatherings of terrorist organizations in Tehran.
And by the way, these terrorist gatherings have been sponsored by the -- quote-unquote -- "moderates" in the Iranian parliament. Iran's foreign policy is still very much aligned against the United States, and that's why the dynamic inside Iran must be described as one between the government versus the people of Iran.
PHILLIPS: Well, after nearly 25 years of living under a rule of fundamentalist clerics, doesn't it look like Iranians, in many way, have had enough? We're seeing so many demonstration, so many protests.
SOBHANI: Absolutely, Kyra. When the president of the United States, George Bush, spoke to the Iranian people and said, we consider you separate from your government, it created lots of hope. After all, Iranians were the only people in the Middle East, apart maybe from Turkey, that held candlelight vigils after 9/11. Iranians, for the most part, are pro-Americans. That's why, whenever President Bush speaks, and speaks to the heart of the Iranian people...
PHILLIPS: Rob, hold that thought. Hold that thought.
(INTERRUPTED BY LIVE EVENT)
PHILLIPS: Now, back to Rob Sobhani, our Georgetown University professor. We've been talking about Iran in the middle of all this talk about a war against Iraq. How vital is Iran here, and should we be paying attention to Iran? Rob, a democratic and prosperous Iran, wouldn't you say, is crucial to -- I guess stability in the entire Gulf region, wouldn't you say?
SOBHANI: Kyra, you're absolutely correct. A democratic, secular, prosperous Iran would put an immediate end to state-sponsored terrorism. It would put an end to Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad's lifeline. It would put an end to the nuclear weapons program in Iran. It would also prove to the Muslim world that Islam as a form of governance has failed, that Islam as faith will always remain there, but Islam as a form of governance has failed. But most importantly, it will provide the whole region a sigh of relief. Iran will no longer be a threat, Iran will be a partner for peace and prosperity.
And in fact, if the United States were to invest diplomatically, politically, financially, in empowering the people of Iran to change their government, it would be the best investment that we can do after 9/11 that would pay enormous dividends, both for the United States' security, but also for the Iranian people.
PHILLIPS: And final thought, Rob. Obviously, the U.S. -- U.S. military, U.S. government is going to have to convince Iranians that a regime change in Iraq is essential, and that this is not a war about Islam or against Islam, but rather against tyranny, yes?
SOBHANI: Absolutely, and I think the president has made it very clear, the United States will not engage Iran militarily. That's wrong. That would not be productive, but a victory of American troops in Iraq will have very, very significant implications for Iran. The Iranian people will look at that as a sign of liberation, and take heart and hope from that movement.
PHILLIPS: Rob Sobhani, professor at Georgetown, always appreciate your insight -- thanks, Rob.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 12, 2003 - 13:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Amid all the talk about Iraq these days, some observers are asking this question -- what about Iran? For those who forget, Iran was once viewed as such a huge threat that Washington armed Saddam Hussein to contain it.
Today, Iran is a charter member of President Bush's axis of evil. And just this week, we've seen new questions about its nuclear intentions, and as Iraq's neighbor, it clearly has a stake in what unfolds between Washington and Baghdad.
Let's talk about this. Our guest, Rob Sobhani, is a Middle East analyst and professor at Georgetown University in Washington. Rob, good to see you.
ROB SOBHANI, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Nice seeing you, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right. So the president mentions Iran in his State of the Union address. Secretary of State Colin Powell mentions Iran in his talk last week. Then, today, CIA Director George Tenet is grilled about Iran. Let's listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE TENET, CIA DIRECTOR: We're concerned as well. We're going to follow up on that -- all of that reporting. We have some very specific data for the classified session of that specifically where the Iranian nuclear program is today, people who are supplying it, may not be supplying it. There have been some improvements in Russian behavior in this regard, but all of this is of a piece (ph), and it comes back to my serious concern about how many countries are pursuing nuclear weapons, how many countries are developing an indigenous capability to do so...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Rob, is Iran a nuclear threat?
SOBHANI: Kyra, Iran should not be in the business of acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Iran is a country with the world's second largest reserves of natural gas. There's no reason why it should be pursuing a nuclear option. But it is pursuing a nuclear option, because, as the CIA director said, and as the president mentioned, a nuclear weapon in the hands of the government of Iran means blackmail for our friends and allies in the region.
PHILLIPS: All right. So while we -- there is so much focus on Iraq, maybe we should be focusing a little bit more on Iran, and looking at what could happen there, if a war does indeed go down with Iraq, correct?
SOBHANI: Absolutely. And here, I would probably slightly disagree with the assessment of the CIA director. The dynamic inside Iran is not between reformers and hard-liners. The dynamic inside Iran today is between the people of Iran and the government of Iran that has lost total legitimacy. That's what the United States government should focus on, this division between the people and the government.
PHILLIPS: So while Iran's ruling Ayatollahs -- there's still a threat, but how much of a threat with regard to terrorism?
SOBHANI: Kyra, there is ample evidence to suggest that since 9/11, actually, Iranian government has been able to form a consortium of terror amongst the following groups: Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and now, unfortunately, al Qaeda. And the Iranian government has actually, very publicly, endorsed gatherings of terrorist organizations in Tehran.
And by the way, these terrorist gatherings have been sponsored by the -- quote-unquote -- "moderates" in the Iranian parliament. Iran's foreign policy is still very much aligned against the United States, and that's why the dynamic inside Iran must be described as one between the government versus the people of Iran.
PHILLIPS: Well, after nearly 25 years of living under a rule of fundamentalist clerics, doesn't it look like Iranians, in many way, have had enough? We're seeing so many demonstration, so many protests.
SOBHANI: Absolutely, Kyra. When the president of the United States, George Bush, spoke to the Iranian people and said, we consider you separate from your government, it created lots of hope. After all, Iranians were the only people in the Middle East, apart maybe from Turkey, that held candlelight vigils after 9/11. Iranians, for the most part, are pro-Americans. That's why, whenever President Bush speaks, and speaks to the heart of the Iranian people...
PHILLIPS: Rob, hold that thought. Hold that thought.
(INTERRUPTED BY LIVE EVENT)
PHILLIPS: Now, back to Rob Sobhani, our Georgetown University professor. We've been talking about Iran in the middle of all this talk about a war against Iraq. How vital is Iran here, and should we be paying attention to Iran? Rob, a democratic and prosperous Iran, wouldn't you say, is crucial to -- I guess stability in the entire Gulf region, wouldn't you say?
SOBHANI: Kyra, you're absolutely correct. A democratic, secular, prosperous Iran would put an immediate end to state-sponsored terrorism. It would put an end to Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad's lifeline. It would put an end to the nuclear weapons program in Iran. It would also prove to the Muslim world that Islam as a form of governance has failed, that Islam as faith will always remain there, but Islam as a form of governance has failed. But most importantly, it will provide the whole region a sigh of relief. Iran will no longer be a threat, Iran will be a partner for peace and prosperity.
And in fact, if the United States were to invest diplomatically, politically, financially, in empowering the people of Iran to change their government, it would be the best investment that we can do after 9/11 that would pay enormous dividends, both for the United States' security, but also for the Iranian people.
PHILLIPS: And final thought, Rob. Obviously, the U.S. -- U.S. military, U.S. government is going to have to convince Iranians that a regime change in Iraq is essential, and that this is not a war about Islam or against Islam, but rather against tyranny, yes?
SOBHANI: Absolutely, and I think the president has made it very clear, the United States will not engage Iran militarily. That's wrong. That would not be productive, but a victory of American troops in Iraq will have very, very significant implications for Iran. The Iranian people will look at that as a sign of liberation, and take heart and hope from that movement.
PHILLIPS: Rob Sobhani, professor at Georgetown, always appreciate your insight -- thanks, Rob.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
