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Interview With Gallup's Frank Newport

Aired February 25, 2003 - 14:56   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: You've heard the discussions, you've seen the demonstrations. What do people think, especially here in the United States, about a possible war with Iraq? For that, we are now going to talk to Frank Newport, the editor-in-chief of Gallup polls.
Frank, what do people think about U.S. military involvement in Iraq?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Well, they think a lot. This has been one of the most polled topics that we've seen since the election of 2000, Anderson. Lots of polls all the time asking Americans about this critical issue. Let me summarize it. I think I have got a couple of strong points for you. First of all, all the polls show a basic majority level of support for the idea of military action in Iraq.

Here's the CNN USA Today Gallup tracking measure that we ask about every week or two. You see it's been up to -- down and up, 63 percent right after Colin Powell's speech. Now it's down to 59 percent, but that is still pretty high: 6 out of 10 Americans support the basic concept.

They will come off of that if you suggest waiting for the U.N., which a lot of Americans wish America would do, but basically the support is there. I wanted to show you, however, that a lot of the questions may not matter as much. If and when war begins, we expect support may increase by as much as 25 points overnight. Why do I say that? This is what happened back in 1991. We were seeing similar levels of support for military action against Iraq at 55 percent right before military action began. Notice how it jumped up 25 points right after military action. That's a rally effect, Anderson. We would anticipate the same thing if a war breaks out this year.

COOPER: No doubt a lot of people thinking it's very important to support the troops once the action begins. Frank, let's talk a little bit about gasoline prices. A lot of people, we have been hearing from experts saying that the threat of war is driving up gas prices. Does the public buy that argument?

NEWPORT: No, in a word. The public is very suspicious, they are cynical. We said, are the increases in prices due to the oil companies kind of cynically manipulating prices, or due to real market conditions like you mentioned, Iraq, Venezuela. Two to one, 66 to 31, Americans say it's just the oil companies trying to make profits.

As a result of that, Americans aren't as worried about oil prices as we might imagine. We said is it permanent or temporary. We asked that a couple years ago. In '91, Americans thought they were permanent, but now only 36 percent of Americans say this rapid increase we have been seeing is permanent. A lot of Americans say it is just temporary. What goes up, they say, will come back down again -- Anderson.

COOPER: Well, if they're not as concerned about gas prices, what about the economy?

NEWPORT: Oh, it's terrible. I mean -- we've been hearing all day long about the Conference Board's latest numbers. Our Gallup number is tracking exactly the same thing. It doesn't take a rocket scientist, a brain surgeon to be able to see that the numbers are so low there, that bottom line down to just 18 percent of Americans willing to rate the economy positively right now. And Anderson, that's the lowest, as we've been hearing, in our Gallup measures since way back when Bill Clinton was a young man in November of 1993.

COOPER: Wow, interesting stuff. Frank Newport, appreciate you joining us, editor-in-chief of Gallup polls.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 25, 2003 - 14:56   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: You've heard the discussions, you've seen the demonstrations. What do people think, especially here in the United States, about a possible war with Iraq? For that, we are now going to talk to Frank Newport, the editor-in-chief of Gallup polls.
Frank, what do people think about U.S. military involvement in Iraq?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Well, they think a lot. This has been one of the most polled topics that we've seen since the election of 2000, Anderson. Lots of polls all the time asking Americans about this critical issue. Let me summarize it. I think I have got a couple of strong points for you. First of all, all the polls show a basic majority level of support for the idea of military action in Iraq.

Here's the CNN USA Today Gallup tracking measure that we ask about every week or two. You see it's been up to -- down and up, 63 percent right after Colin Powell's speech. Now it's down to 59 percent, but that is still pretty high: 6 out of 10 Americans support the basic concept.

They will come off of that if you suggest waiting for the U.N., which a lot of Americans wish America would do, but basically the support is there. I wanted to show you, however, that a lot of the questions may not matter as much. If and when war begins, we expect support may increase by as much as 25 points overnight. Why do I say that? This is what happened back in 1991. We were seeing similar levels of support for military action against Iraq at 55 percent right before military action began. Notice how it jumped up 25 points right after military action. That's a rally effect, Anderson. We would anticipate the same thing if a war breaks out this year.

COOPER: No doubt a lot of people thinking it's very important to support the troops once the action begins. Frank, let's talk a little bit about gasoline prices. A lot of people, we have been hearing from experts saying that the threat of war is driving up gas prices. Does the public buy that argument?

NEWPORT: No, in a word. The public is very suspicious, they are cynical. We said, are the increases in prices due to the oil companies kind of cynically manipulating prices, or due to real market conditions like you mentioned, Iraq, Venezuela. Two to one, 66 to 31, Americans say it's just the oil companies trying to make profits.

As a result of that, Americans aren't as worried about oil prices as we might imagine. We said is it permanent or temporary. We asked that a couple years ago. In '91, Americans thought they were permanent, but now only 36 percent of Americans say this rapid increase we have been seeing is permanent. A lot of Americans say it is just temporary. What goes up, they say, will come back down again -- Anderson.

COOPER: Well, if they're not as concerned about gas prices, what about the economy?

NEWPORT: Oh, it's terrible. I mean -- we've been hearing all day long about the Conference Board's latest numbers. Our Gallup number is tracking exactly the same thing. It doesn't take a rocket scientist, a brain surgeon to be able to see that the numbers are so low there, that bottom line down to just 18 percent of Americans willing to rate the economy positively right now. And Anderson, that's the lowest, as we've been hearing, in our Gallup measures since way back when Bill Clinton was a young man in November of 1993.

COOPER: Wow, interesting stuff. Frank Newport, appreciate you joining us, editor-in-chief of Gallup polls.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com