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Public Opinion Analysis With Frank Newport

Aired March 04, 2003 - 14:56   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we don't have to tell you what's on the minds of most Americans. They're worried about war. They're worried about the economy. What's the latest take on public opinion specifically? Gallup editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, joining us live with the latest.
Frank, good to have you with us. What's the latest on support for war out there?

FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, you know, Miles, we've had more polling on this subject, I think, in America now than we've had on any other topic since the presidential election.

I can summarize it by saying support is there for the concept. That hasn't varied across 25 different askings of this question over the last decade. It just doesn't move a lot.

Fifty-nine percent, our latest number, for the basic idea. That's not to say that Americans don't want U.N. support. They clearly do. You've seen those questions. But the fundamental concept is Americans support the idea and we know there will be a rally effect if and when there is military action. Support will go up higher, at least in the short term.

But as you mentioned, there's other news on the minds of Americans, economy. Our economic ratings are as low as they have been now in 10 years and I think that's hurting George W. Bush's approval rating. Just by way of reference, he had a 76 approval rating back May; 41 percent rated the excellent or good. Now his approval ratings of 57, drop of 20 points. But look how the economic ratings have dropped down to 18 on that measure.

Clearly, it's more than just international affairs as far as our data are concerned. The economy is a big problem for the Bush administration, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Let's talk about how that is all playing politically. You know, it's the economy, stupid, was the motto of the Clinton campaign.

NEWPORT: Well, it's likely to be the motto of Democrats again next year as well, particularly if the Iraq situation moves out of the way. This is fascinating to watch. This is a question, rate the economy, is it good or poor? Nothing about Bush, just rate the economy. Look how optimistic Republicans are, Miles, 54 percent. Look at Democrats, only 18 percent are willing to rate the economy as good. Again, they just look at the world totally different over there on the right-hand side of this graph. And that's, of course ,what the Democrats are going to be emphasizing no doubt as we move into next year.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's talk about "The West Wing" for a moment and we're talking about the one in Hollywood sound stage, Martin Sheen factor. Hollywood, celebrities and their impact on public opinion. I'm sure this will be interesting.

NEWPORT: Well, it's always fascinating. In fact, I think we have the first approval rating on President Bartlett. Actually, on Martin Sheen.

Americans deny it makes a big differences to them, what all these politicians likes Martin Sheen and Mike Farrell and the others are doing -- just 11 percent, for example, say that these celebrities' position would make them, that is Americans, more likely to support the position.

But there is a politicization here. Look at the ratings for Martin Sheen by party. If you're a Republican, only 45 percent favorable rating for actor Sheen. If you're an independent, it goes up. If you're a Democrat, all the way up to 67 percent. So, like it or not -- and we're not sure that's hurting his ratings, but if the ratings for "West Wing" are down, I bet it's because a lot of Republicans have decided not to watch.

O'BRIEN: All right, Frank Newport with Gallup, we appreciate it, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 4, 2003 - 14:56   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we don't have to tell you what's on the minds of most Americans. They're worried about war. They're worried about the economy. What's the latest take on public opinion specifically? Gallup editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, joining us live with the latest.
Frank, good to have you with us. What's the latest on support for war out there?

FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, you know, Miles, we've had more polling on this subject, I think, in America now than we've had on any other topic since the presidential election.

I can summarize it by saying support is there for the concept. That hasn't varied across 25 different askings of this question over the last decade. It just doesn't move a lot.

Fifty-nine percent, our latest number, for the basic idea. That's not to say that Americans don't want U.N. support. They clearly do. You've seen those questions. But the fundamental concept is Americans support the idea and we know there will be a rally effect if and when there is military action. Support will go up higher, at least in the short term.

But as you mentioned, there's other news on the minds of Americans, economy. Our economic ratings are as low as they have been now in 10 years and I think that's hurting George W. Bush's approval rating. Just by way of reference, he had a 76 approval rating back May; 41 percent rated the excellent or good. Now his approval ratings of 57, drop of 20 points. But look how the economic ratings have dropped down to 18 on that measure.

Clearly, it's more than just international affairs as far as our data are concerned. The economy is a big problem for the Bush administration, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Let's talk about how that is all playing politically. You know, it's the economy, stupid, was the motto of the Clinton campaign.

NEWPORT: Well, it's likely to be the motto of Democrats again next year as well, particularly if the Iraq situation moves out of the way. This is fascinating to watch. This is a question, rate the economy, is it good or poor? Nothing about Bush, just rate the economy. Look how optimistic Republicans are, Miles, 54 percent. Look at Democrats, only 18 percent are willing to rate the economy as good. Again, they just look at the world totally different over there on the right-hand side of this graph. And that's, of course ,what the Democrats are going to be emphasizing no doubt as we move into next year.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's talk about "The West Wing" for a moment and we're talking about the one in Hollywood sound stage, Martin Sheen factor. Hollywood, celebrities and their impact on public opinion. I'm sure this will be interesting.

NEWPORT: Well, it's always fascinating. In fact, I think we have the first approval rating on President Bartlett. Actually, on Martin Sheen.

Americans deny it makes a big differences to them, what all these politicians likes Martin Sheen and Mike Farrell and the others are doing -- just 11 percent, for example, say that these celebrities' position would make them, that is Americans, more likely to support the position.

But there is a politicization here. Look at the ratings for Martin Sheen by party. If you're a Republican, only 45 percent favorable rating for actor Sheen. If you're an independent, it goes up. If you're a Democrat, all the way up to 67 percent. So, like it or not -- and we're not sure that's hurting his ratings, but if the ratings for "West Wing" are down, I bet it's because a lot of Republicans have decided not to watch.

O'BRIEN: All right, Frank Newport with Gallup, we appreciate it, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com