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Aired March 18, 2003 - 13:47   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: After the September 11 terrorist attacks, president bush was riding high in the public opinion polls, historic number, upwards of 90 percent. No president, no politician can maintain those numbers. Where does the president stand when we appear to be on the doorstep of war?
CNN senior political analyst William Schneider has taken a look at those numbers now, and he has a sense of what things were then and what things are now.

Mr. Schneider, good to see you, sir.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Miles, it's a different world entirely from what it was in the fall of 2001. Let's take a look at President Bush's political standing in October 2001. That was just after the terrorist attacks, when the United States was about to go into Afghanistan. Not only were his approval ratings in the stratosphere, he was above politics. He was getting support, you can see, from 98 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. Now, the president's still getting support from 92 percent of Republicans, but just 31 percent of Democrats. He's no longer above politics.

And of course President Bush is more isolated in the world as well. Then, the French proclaimed after September 11th, we are all Americans, and the whole world was behind the United States' effort in Afghanistan.

Now I think it's fair to say the United States is pretty much isolated in the world with just a few allies.

O'BRIEN: The stakes are so high on so many fronts, Bill. Let's talk about the political stakes. How high are the stakes for President Bush and for the Republican Party?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think this is the toughest and riskiest political decision of any kind a president has made since President Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. I'd call this Texas political poker, the ultimate high-stakes gamble, because President Bush has put everything on the line with this war. It's impossible to make any predictions about the political future. Everything is riding on it, his re-election, his legacy, his party's future, not to mention, of course, the life and death of hundred of thousands of combatants, and the future of the Middle East, America's role in the world. I think it's fair to say this is Bush's war, and I say that as a political fact, because he staked his presidency on it. It means that a triumph will be his triumph, but a failure will be his failure. It will be easy to measure success, the president has said it, Saddam Hussein ousted and we've won.

But the problem is, will there be complicating factor, terrorists reprisals, attacks against American occupying forces in Iraq. There are many, many complications that could ensue.

O'BRIEN: Bill, to call this move bold is perhaps an understatement. It's hard to recall a presidential decision that would be as bold as this. I'm sure you could come up with a few.

SCHNEIDER: Very few.

O'BRIEN: Being a leader is sometimes about being bold. It puts the president in a very difficult situation. Would you have ever predicted this scenario upon his election?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, there was a clue here that President Bush is a bold decisionmaker. It was a mild clue, not nearly as high stakes. But I watched the midterm election last year when President Bush did something very few presidents ever do, he went out and campaigned for his party in a midterm election. Most presidents hold themselves above that.

But he put his political standing on the line. If things had gone badly for the Republicans last November, he would have been hurt politically, but he decide to take a risk. He doesn't even like to take a campaign, but he traveled around the country, marathoned, took a risk, it ended up the Republicans doing very well, and his political stature was enhanced, but it was a bold gamble.

And I should add, if he ends up looking like a hero, as his father did -- his father stood astride the world like a Colossus after the first Gulf War in 1991, in what is now a first Gulf War potentially, in 1991, his first didn't seem to want to do much with the political capital. He didn't have an ambitious agenda. I think we can say that the son has a far more bold and ambitious agenda than his father did.

O'BRIEN: All right, we'll stay tuned and see how it all unfolds.

Bill Schneider, as always, thanks for your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired March 18, 2003 - 13:47   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: After the September 11 terrorist attacks, president bush was riding high in the public opinion polls, historic number, upwards of 90 percent. No president, no politician can maintain those numbers. Where does the president stand when we appear to be on the doorstep of war?
CNN senior political analyst William Schneider has taken a look at those numbers now, and he has a sense of what things were then and what things are now.

Mr. Schneider, good to see you, sir.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Miles, it's a different world entirely from what it was in the fall of 2001. Let's take a look at President Bush's political standing in October 2001. That was just after the terrorist attacks, when the United States was about to go into Afghanistan. Not only were his approval ratings in the stratosphere, he was above politics. He was getting support, you can see, from 98 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. Now, the president's still getting support from 92 percent of Republicans, but just 31 percent of Democrats. He's no longer above politics.

And of course President Bush is more isolated in the world as well. Then, the French proclaimed after September 11th, we are all Americans, and the whole world was behind the United States' effort in Afghanistan.

Now I think it's fair to say the United States is pretty much isolated in the world with just a few allies.

O'BRIEN: The stakes are so high on so many fronts, Bill. Let's talk about the political stakes. How high are the stakes for President Bush and for the Republican Party?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think this is the toughest and riskiest political decision of any kind a president has made since President Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. I'd call this Texas political poker, the ultimate high-stakes gamble, because President Bush has put everything on the line with this war. It's impossible to make any predictions about the political future. Everything is riding on it, his re-election, his legacy, his party's future, not to mention, of course, the life and death of hundred of thousands of combatants, and the future of the Middle East, America's role in the world. I think it's fair to say this is Bush's war, and I say that as a political fact, because he staked his presidency on it. It means that a triumph will be his triumph, but a failure will be his failure. It will be easy to measure success, the president has said it, Saddam Hussein ousted and we've won.

But the problem is, will there be complicating factor, terrorists reprisals, attacks against American occupying forces in Iraq. There are many, many complications that could ensue.

O'BRIEN: Bill, to call this move bold is perhaps an understatement. It's hard to recall a presidential decision that would be as bold as this. I'm sure you could come up with a few.

SCHNEIDER: Very few.

O'BRIEN: Being a leader is sometimes about being bold. It puts the president in a very difficult situation. Would you have ever predicted this scenario upon his election?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, there was a clue here that President Bush is a bold decisionmaker. It was a mild clue, not nearly as high stakes. But I watched the midterm election last year when President Bush did something very few presidents ever do, he went out and campaigned for his party in a midterm election. Most presidents hold themselves above that.

But he put his political standing on the line. If things had gone badly for the Republicans last November, he would have been hurt politically, but he decide to take a risk. He doesn't even like to take a campaign, but he traveled around the country, marathoned, took a risk, it ended up the Republicans doing very well, and his political stature was enhanced, but it was a bold gamble.

And I should add, if he ends up looking like a hero, as his father did -- his father stood astride the world like a Colossus after the first Gulf War in 1991, in what is now a first Gulf War potentially, in 1991, his first didn't seem to want to do much with the political capital. He didn't have an ambitious agenda. I think we can say that the son has a far more bold and ambitious agenda than his father did.

O'BRIEN: All right, we'll stay tuned and see how it all unfolds.

Bill Schneider, as always, thanks for your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com