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Analysis with Lt. Gen. Daniel Christman

Aired March 18, 2003 - 15:38   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: For more on the importance of Turkey to the U.S. military equation, we turn to CNN military analyst, retired Lieutenant General Dan Christman. Good to have you with US, General.
LT. GEN. DANIEL CHRISTMAN, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Hey, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Let's get the lay of the land here for just a moment here before we look at some specifics. Turkey right up here. Obviously it's pretty hard to get into any sort of northern invasion of Iraq without going through Turkey, unless, of course, you can deal with Syria. And there's all kinds of reasons not to do that. Give US a sense of how strategically important Turkey is.

CHRISTMAN: It's important for obvious reasons. You mentioned them right off the bat, Miles. First and most importantly, we need the air space access. I think the issue of ground troops deploying into Iraq will be something that will be in the nature of a follow-on echelon. But right now we need the air access principally to stress the Iraqi air defense system.

We don't want to give the Iraqi defenses the opportunity to focus just on a very, very narrow corridor. And so if we can get the Turkish approval that would be important to provide a multi-echelon air attack.

O'BRIEN: All right. We're going to show you a couple of views of the flights from Incirlik, which is the key base here to Iraq. It's about 800 miles, as the crow flies. The alternatives we'll tell you about in just a second.

But as we zoom in this map, take a look right here. And we'll give you a sense of Incirlik right here, obviously, and that shot into Baghdad is relatively free and unencumbered because, of course, Iraq borders Turkey and that makes it relatively easy.

Now, first, in Desert Storm there were several sorties flown out of this in this 800-mile run there. Probably not in that direction, though. Probably around that way. And that was pretty significant in '91 and has been very significant for the northern no-fly zone.

CHRISTMAN: It has, right. And it will continue to be. I think right now we would hope that the Turkish decision in the next 24 hours would continue to allow US both to use the bases there and, more importantly, those air attack corridors. The key for US now, though, is to make sure that we also have land access for the follow-on echelons from the fourth division, where the equipment is still floating in the eastern Med.

O'BRIEN: Now we're talking about out here, bobbing in the Med...

CHRISTMAN: Right.

O'BRIEN: ... is a lot of equipment related to the fourth infantry. I think the cost is about $1.5 million a day. The idea is to bring them in this way. And part of the issue here is this Kurdish region here. The Iraqi Kurds and the Turkish Kurds have no -- well, they don't have much patience for Turkey or for Iraq or for any of these other countries; they want their own nation.

CHRISTMAN: Correct.

O'BRIEN: And the idea is to have U.S. foot soldiers there to try to keep them from going at it, right?

CHRISTMAN: That's right. I think the important point here is to make sure we can go in with enough robustness in the ground forces to provide what the military calls an interposition force between the Turks and the Kurds. We do have a northern option with lighter forces. But if we do that, in my judgment, it will not be of sufficient robustness to make sure that we can do that protection.

O'BRIEN: You need some real troop count here. Now let's look at alternative flying possibility for over-flights. Let's assume Turkey says no. One of the options here is to use carriers, and there are two of them stationed in the eastern Med there that could fly. And these will be wink nod arrangements, perhaps over Jordan, skirting through Saudi Arabia, and ultimately into Iraq and Baghdad.

It's actually a shorter run. It's about 670-odd miles, but not ideal, is it?

CHRISTMAN: No. First of all, there's the clear political issue. And this is something most sensitive, and we're probably not going to hear the result of this until much later in the game. And that's, of course, over-flying Israel through Jordan into western Iraq.

The Saudis have given US permission already to fly. We know that. So that provides the additional stressor on the Iraqi air defense system that we need.

O'BRIEN: Interesting. But you still -- if you had your druthers, you'd want to put actual troops on the ground here, have over-flight capability with Turkey?

CHRISTMAN: Yes. The important point here, though, Miles, is that this is a long distance. This is 500 kilometers that will require weeks of engineering effort to make sure the roads and the bridges can sustain the heavy weight of this mechanized division.

O'BRIEN: So really we're talking about a follow-on force even if Turkey says yes?

CHRISTMAN: Absolutely, for sure. O'BRIEN: What does your gut tell you? Over-flights, are they going to give a green flight to over-flights, at the very least? Use of Incirlik, perhaps?

CHRISTMAN: Yes, absolutely.

O'BRIEN: All right. Appreciate it. General Dan Christman, retired U.S. Army, we appreciate you joining us and giving us those insights.

CHRISTMAN: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired March 18, 2003 - 15:38   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: For more on the importance of Turkey to the U.S. military equation, we turn to CNN military analyst, retired Lieutenant General Dan Christman. Good to have you with US, General.
LT. GEN. DANIEL CHRISTMAN, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Hey, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Let's get the lay of the land here for just a moment here before we look at some specifics. Turkey right up here. Obviously it's pretty hard to get into any sort of northern invasion of Iraq without going through Turkey, unless, of course, you can deal with Syria. And there's all kinds of reasons not to do that. Give US a sense of how strategically important Turkey is.

CHRISTMAN: It's important for obvious reasons. You mentioned them right off the bat, Miles. First and most importantly, we need the air space access. I think the issue of ground troops deploying into Iraq will be something that will be in the nature of a follow-on echelon. But right now we need the air access principally to stress the Iraqi air defense system.

We don't want to give the Iraqi defenses the opportunity to focus just on a very, very narrow corridor. And so if we can get the Turkish approval that would be important to provide a multi-echelon air attack.

O'BRIEN: All right. We're going to show you a couple of views of the flights from Incirlik, which is the key base here to Iraq. It's about 800 miles, as the crow flies. The alternatives we'll tell you about in just a second.

But as we zoom in this map, take a look right here. And we'll give you a sense of Incirlik right here, obviously, and that shot into Baghdad is relatively free and unencumbered because, of course, Iraq borders Turkey and that makes it relatively easy.

Now, first, in Desert Storm there were several sorties flown out of this in this 800-mile run there. Probably not in that direction, though. Probably around that way. And that was pretty significant in '91 and has been very significant for the northern no-fly zone.

CHRISTMAN: It has, right. And it will continue to be. I think right now we would hope that the Turkish decision in the next 24 hours would continue to allow US both to use the bases there and, more importantly, those air attack corridors. The key for US now, though, is to make sure that we also have land access for the follow-on echelons from the fourth division, where the equipment is still floating in the eastern Med.

O'BRIEN: Now we're talking about out here, bobbing in the Med...

CHRISTMAN: Right.

O'BRIEN: ... is a lot of equipment related to the fourth infantry. I think the cost is about $1.5 million a day. The idea is to bring them in this way. And part of the issue here is this Kurdish region here. The Iraqi Kurds and the Turkish Kurds have no -- well, they don't have much patience for Turkey or for Iraq or for any of these other countries; they want their own nation.

CHRISTMAN: Correct.

O'BRIEN: And the idea is to have U.S. foot soldiers there to try to keep them from going at it, right?

CHRISTMAN: That's right. I think the important point here is to make sure we can go in with enough robustness in the ground forces to provide what the military calls an interposition force between the Turks and the Kurds. We do have a northern option with lighter forces. But if we do that, in my judgment, it will not be of sufficient robustness to make sure that we can do that protection.

O'BRIEN: You need some real troop count here. Now let's look at alternative flying possibility for over-flights. Let's assume Turkey says no. One of the options here is to use carriers, and there are two of them stationed in the eastern Med there that could fly. And these will be wink nod arrangements, perhaps over Jordan, skirting through Saudi Arabia, and ultimately into Iraq and Baghdad.

It's actually a shorter run. It's about 670-odd miles, but not ideal, is it?

CHRISTMAN: No. First of all, there's the clear political issue. And this is something most sensitive, and we're probably not going to hear the result of this until much later in the game. And that's, of course, over-flying Israel through Jordan into western Iraq.

The Saudis have given US permission already to fly. We know that. So that provides the additional stressor on the Iraqi air defense system that we need.

O'BRIEN: Interesting. But you still -- if you had your druthers, you'd want to put actual troops on the ground here, have over-flight capability with Turkey?

CHRISTMAN: Yes. The important point here, though, Miles, is that this is a long distance. This is 500 kilometers that will require weeks of engineering effort to make sure the roads and the bridges can sustain the heavy weight of this mechanized division.

O'BRIEN: So really we're talking about a follow-on force even if Turkey says yes?

CHRISTMAN: Absolutely, for sure. O'BRIEN: What does your gut tell you? Over-flights, are they going to give a green flight to over-flights, at the very least? Use of Incirlik, perhaps?

CHRISTMAN: Yes, absolutely.

O'BRIEN: All right. Appreciate it. General Dan Christman, retired U.S. Army, we appreciate you joining us and giving us those insights.

CHRISTMAN: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com