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Analysis of Saddam's Videotape
Aired April 04, 2003 - 12:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm going to break away briefly from the White House briefing to show our viewers once again these new pictures purportedly of the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein walking into a crowd of supporters. I want to bring in our analyst, Ken Pollack, to assess what's going on. Ken, as I look at these pictures of Saddam Hussein and these bodyguards that he has, people coming over to him, kissing him and cheering him on, it certainly looks strange. And I certainly wouldn't be surprised at all to see that this is a double. This is an impostor of Saddam Hussein, especially when you see people going up and kissing him actually on the cheek. This is supposedly a no-no as far as Saddam Hussein is concerned. He's always been extremely concerned with poisons and germs. And people barely are allowed to touch his shoulder, let alone kiss him on the cheek. What's your sense as you look at these pictures?
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: You're absolutely right, Wolf. What we've seen in the past is that any time there's one of these big crowd scenes, Saddam usually sends a double. Any time there's a big event where he's expected to be present with lots of people, it's usually a double, because obviously those are the kinds of circumstances where it's very difficult for his security to control his safety and to really guarantee his safety.
That said, this isn't a very big crowd. These could all be his absolute loyalists. We can't rule out the fact that these people aren't all Special Republican Guards, presidential guards out of uniform, family members of his inner circle. I mean, when you look at that crowd, this is not an enormous number of people. And it may very well be that this is a picked group of people and that really is Saddam. But I think you're right. My initial inclination is to assume that this is also a body double.
BLITZER: And I look at the bodyguards that he has, three or four guys there who don't seem all that concerned. If this were the real Saddam Hussein, my sense is there would be a lot more security there in the midst of this crowd, even if it's a hand-picked crowd of supporters all of whom have gone through magnetometers and been scrubbed for germs or whatever. Still I would think there would be more bodyguards around him, based on previous experiences when we've seen the Iraqi leader walk out in the midst of a crowd. I assume, also, when analysts in the U.S. government will be looking at these pictures, Ken, they'll take a look at the bodyguards and question, are these the bodyguards that are always next to Saddam Hussein or are these sort of fake bodyguards themselves?
POLLACK: Right. Actually, it's a great point, Wolf, one that I was coming to, which is the picture that I'm seeing here isn't terrific, but it does look like one of the bodyguards with Saddam Hussein is Abid Hamid Hamoud (ph), the man that we keep describing as his personal secretary, which really doesn't do justice to his role in Iraqi society. He is the head of the Marafiqin (ph), Saddam's companions, the inner most ring of bodyguards. If that is Abid (ph), that might lend a little more credence to the theory that this truly is Saddam Hussein. That said, the point that you made earlier I think is also a valid one, which is typically, when we have seen Saddam interacting with the people or seen a body double interacting with the people, there were far more armed guards around. There were presidential guards around, in addition to larger numbers of this inner circle of Murafiqin (ph), of companions. That also again suggests that it probably is a body double, although don't want to rule out the possibility that this is a hand-picked crowd and that that really is Saddam.
BLITZER: And we're seeing these pictures coming in from various sources now, Al Jazeera, Iraqi television, Abu Dhabi Television, LBC, Lebanese television. David Ensor, our national security correspondent's watching all of this with high interest as well. David, what's your take?
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, talking to U.S. officials as well, Wolf, I mean, obviously there is the question of whether it's a body double. But there's also another question, and that is when was this tape made? How long ago was this recording made? This is a tape. Officials pointing out they do see some signs of smoke in the background, but it's a little hard to make out. So it's possible this could have been done yesterday, today, but you just can't tell with the Iraqi regime how old tapes may be. There really is a strong belief among some officials that some of the tapes that have been broadcast at least since the war began, have been old tapes of Saddam Hussein.
So, this could be another old tape. That's another question. Still, I think it is worth pointing out that the tape where he spoke to the Iraqi people that was broadcast, was it an hour or two ago now, in which he referred to the incident with the villager shooting on an Apache helicopter. That is causing a bit of a change of view in the U.S. intelligence community, with officials saying that at least some of them saying that that does seem an indication that that recording was made after the attempt to kill him on March 19. So lending credence to the idea that he may still be alive.
Obviously, one thing is for sure. Saddam Hussein now wants his people to think he's alive and to think he's in charge. He's making concerted effort with both the speech and with the appearance that's now being shown on Iraqi television and that we're playing at this point. This appearance is obviously designed to have people think that it's just been recorded. That he's out on the streets trying to rally support among people in the city of Baghdad. And that may be well what he's doing -- Wolf.
BLITZER: On the other hand, it may be an impostor. It may be a body double. I'm sure that it won't take the intelligence community long to discern, to make that distinction, whether or not this is the real Saddam Hussein or someone pretending to be Saddam Hussein for public relations, for propaganda purposes.
Coming into this day now, we've seen as you point out, David, Saddam Hussein making a speech about 10 minutes on Iraqi television to the people of Iraq. Now we see these pictures of him supposedly mingling with his supporters outside. But coming into this day, the U.S. intelligence community had to assume he was still alive under the assumption that if he were dead, that probably wouldn't be -- they wouldn't be able to keep that secret for very long. Is that a fair assessment?
ENSOR: That has been the sort of working assumption of U.S. intelligence officials who are, of course, as you say, tracking this as closely as they can. But if he were to have been killed, most likely, most likely, some cracks would already be appearing in the seams of the regime and there would have been, for example, not as much of a show of fight on the part of the Iraqis down in the south as the fight -- as the war began.
So it was kind of a working assumption among most U.S. officials that Saddam Hussein was probably still alive, although they couldn't prove it and there were plenty who had doubts about it. Until today, U.S. officials have said they had intelligence suggesting he was killed on the 19th, intelligence suggesting he was injured and intelligence suggesting he was just fine, all of it equally valid.
Now we have this new piece of evidence with him referring to the incident with the villager, which does tend to tilt the balance to suggest that he is still alive, or was still alive when that recording was made, and that that recording was made after the serious attempt on his life on March 19.
BLITZER: All right, David, stand by for a moment. I want to bring our Rula Amin in. She is in Ruwaished (ph), on the border with Iraq in Jordan, a longtime observer of Saddam Hussein, having been to Baghdad numerous times. Rula, as you look at these latest videotapes, we've seen various versions on Abu Dhabi Television, Al Jazeera, LBC, Iraqi TV. Does this look like the real Saddam Hussein to you or an impostor?
RULA AMIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, you can never tell. We have seen so many different Saddam Husseins, at least we always think, oh, he's thinner, he's bigger, he looks -- his jaw looks different, his eyebrows look different. I can't tell any more who is the real Saddam Hussein. We don't know if this is the real Saddam Hussein.
However, people on the streets in Baghdad, this is still -- it sends them a very strong message. And they know themselves that this may not be him. But if it is him, it's still a strong message. He's telling them he's there, in control. And he's defiant. They know that he is the prime target for the U.S. forces for this war, and yet despite the heavy bombardment, he's there, out there on the street. And you can tell from the pictures you see that people are excited. Just the mere fact that he's there, they are excited about it. Doesn't mean they support him, but they're surprised. It seems they're stunned at the fact that he was out there in the open on a day like this when the U.S. troops are so close to Baghdad, less than half an hour's drive, and have just taken over Saddam International Airport -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Well, let me ask you that question then, Rula. Given the fact that the U.S. government has made no secret of the fact they'd like to kill Saddam Hussein, as the commander of the Iraqi military, going after his command and control capabilities. He's the commander. Since the first night of the war when they deliberately sought to kill him, do you think it's realistic to assume in broad daylight his security personnel would let him go out into a crowd like this with the sun shining over Baghdad at a time when he knows and his security personnel know the U.S. is itching to drop a bomb on him?
AMIN: Well, we don't know. One thing we do know, it's probably his own decision. He doesn't listen to his security guards. He doesn't listen to his security personnel. He is the ultimate decision maker in Iraq, regarding everything, including his safety. I can tell you that we recognized one of the guys behind him. It's Abud Lahmoud (ph). He is his personal secretary. He is someone who is always on his side. Never leaves him. In official meetings, in state visits, when he goes out in the field. Abid Lahmoud (ph) is always behind him. And we did see him in that picture -- Wolf.
BLITZER: So if you see him, you have to assume it might be the real Saddam Hussein, although there's nothing that suggests that this executive assistant, if you will, of Saddam Hussein might be out with an impostor either. As you look at the pictures, Rula, you see a lot of people there. You see a lot of them with machine guns. They're waving them in the sky. And you see very few security personnel. Is that normal for Saddam Hussein to go into a mob of a crowd like this with three or four bodyguards and that's it?
AMIN: It's not normal. However, I can tell you, we did see Saddam Hussein among crowds in the last few years. Usually Iraqi TV puts pictures of him visiting villages, visiting different towns. And the crowds are around him, and It looks very staged. You can tell that it's a very staged crowd. You can see the security people. You can see the intelligence there.
In these pictures, we saw only very few people in military fatigue. We don't know how many is there who are -- how many intelligence people are there who are not dressed in military fatigue. However, you can tell from their faces, the crowds that are there, that many of them are spontaneous participants, people who have just come out from their building hearing the noises, they didn't know what was happening. And you can see the surprise on their faces. I can tell you definitely people will be surprised if they see him on the streets of Baghdad. They would be astonished. Because the assumption is we have been hearing in the last two weeks that he is now in bunkers, living in bunkers. He's in Tikrit, he has just fled Baghdad. Even rumors that he has died.
So even those people who doubt that this is the real Saddam Hussein, it still does something for them, to see him there, even if it's not him, but someone like him. It does something to them, especially on a day when people in Baghdad -- I've just spoken to someone, a friend in Baghdad -- who said he spoke to a few people and many were disappointed, actually frustrated that the Iraqi forces did not fight a fierce battle around the international airport as they have been saying that they would do for the last few days. Iraqi officials have been making very strong statements, very strong rhetoric how they're going to defeat the U.S. forces, how they are prepared, how they are going to put up a huge fight. And yet the troops were able to take the airport with almost no casualties overnight.
And so people were disappointed. Iraqis are very proud people. And they felt that what is this rhetoric all about? Now, we have to remember also that these pictures, even if they are aired on Iraqi TV, many in Baghdad will not be able to see them because there's a power outage. Since last night, there's no electricity in most of the Iraqi capital. Some areas got the electricity back a few hours ago, but many areas still don't have any electricity. They won't be able to see this on their TVs. They may be able to hear about it through Iraqi radio or other radios that they tune into to get some kind of information, more information in order to know what the happening around them -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Rula, please stand by. I want to continue to show our viewers these pictures of Saddam Hussein purportedly in a crowd of supporters in Baghdad being mobbed by these Iraqis.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 4, 2003 - 12:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm going to break away briefly from the White House briefing to show our viewers once again these new pictures purportedly of the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein walking into a crowd of supporters. I want to bring in our analyst, Ken Pollack, to assess what's going on. Ken, as I look at these pictures of Saddam Hussein and these bodyguards that he has, people coming over to him, kissing him and cheering him on, it certainly looks strange. And I certainly wouldn't be surprised at all to see that this is a double. This is an impostor of Saddam Hussein, especially when you see people going up and kissing him actually on the cheek. This is supposedly a no-no as far as Saddam Hussein is concerned. He's always been extremely concerned with poisons and germs. And people barely are allowed to touch his shoulder, let alone kiss him on the cheek. What's your sense as you look at these pictures?
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: You're absolutely right, Wolf. What we've seen in the past is that any time there's one of these big crowd scenes, Saddam usually sends a double. Any time there's a big event where he's expected to be present with lots of people, it's usually a double, because obviously those are the kinds of circumstances where it's very difficult for his security to control his safety and to really guarantee his safety.
That said, this isn't a very big crowd. These could all be his absolute loyalists. We can't rule out the fact that these people aren't all Special Republican Guards, presidential guards out of uniform, family members of his inner circle. I mean, when you look at that crowd, this is not an enormous number of people. And it may very well be that this is a picked group of people and that really is Saddam. But I think you're right. My initial inclination is to assume that this is also a body double.
BLITZER: And I look at the bodyguards that he has, three or four guys there who don't seem all that concerned. If this were the real Saddam Hussein, my sense is there would be a lot more security there in the midst of this crowd, even if it's a hand-picked crowd of supporters all of whom have gone through magnetometers and been scrubbed for germs or whatever. Still I would think there would be more bodyguards around him, based on previous experiences when we've seen the Iraqi leader walk out in the midst of a crowd. I assume, also, when analysts in the U.S. government will be looking at these pictures, Ken, they'll take a look at the bodyguards and question, are these the bodyguards that are always next to Saddam Hussein or are these sort of fake bodyguards themselves?
POLLACK: Right. Actually, it's a great point, Wolf, one that I was coming to, which is the picture that I'm seeing here isn't terrific, but it does look like one of the bodyguards with Saddam Hussein is Abid Hamid Hamoud (ph), the man that we keep describing as his personal secretary, which really doesn't do justice to his role in Iraqi society. He is the head of the Marafiqin (ph), Saddam's companions, the inner most ring of bodyguards. If that is Abid (ph), that might lend a little more credence to the theory that this truly is Saddam Hussein. That said, the point that you made earlier I think is also a valid one, which is typically, when we have seen Saddam interacting with the people or seen a body double interacting with the people, there were far more armed guards around. There were presidential guards around, in addition to larger numbers of this inner circle of Murafiqin (ph), of companions. That also again suggests that it probably is a body double, although don't want to rule out the possibility that this is a hand-picked crowd and that that really is Saddam.
BLITZER: And we're seeing these pictures coming in from various sources now, Al Jazeera, Iraqi television, Abu Dhabi Television, LBC, Lebanese television. David Ensor, our national security correspondent's watching all of this with high interest as well. David, what's your take?
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, talking to U.S. officials as well, Wolf, I mean, obviously there is the question of whether it's a body double. But there's also another question, and that is when was this tape made? How long ago was this recording made? This is a tape. Officials pointing out they do see some signs of smoke in the background, but it's a little hard to make out. So it's possible this could have been done yesterday, today, but you just can't tell with the Iraqi regime how old tapes may be. There really is a strong belief among some officials that some of the tapes that have been broadcast at least since the war began, have been old tapes of Saddam Hussein.
So, this could be another old tape. That's another question. Still, I think it is worth pointing out that the tape where he spoke to the Iraqi people that was broadcast, was it an hour or two ago now, in which he referred to the incident with the villager shooting on an Apache helicopter. That is causing a bit of a change of view in the U.S. intelligence community, with officials saying that at least some of them saying that that does seem an indication that that recording was made after the attempt to kill him on March 19. So lending credence to the idea that he may still be alive.
Obviously, one thing is for sure. Saddam Hussein now wants his people to think he's alive and to think he's in charge. He's making concerted effort with both the speech and with the appearance that's now being shown on Iraqi television and that we're playing at this point. This appearance is obviously designed to have people think that it's just been recorded. That he's out on the streets trying to rally support among people in the city of Baghdad. And that may be well what he's doing -- Wolf.
BLITZER: On the other hand, it may be an impostor. It may be a body double. I'm sure that it won't take the intelligence community long to discern, to make that distinction, whether or not this is the real Saddam Hussein or someone pretending to be Saddam Hussein for public relations, for propaganda purposes.
Coming into this day now, we've seen as you point out, David, Saddam Hussein making a speech about 10 minutes on Iraqi television to the people of Iraq. Now we see these pictures of him supposedly mingling with his supporters outside. But coming into this day, the U.S. intelligence community had to assume he was still alive under the assumption that if he were dead, that probably wouldn't be -- they wouldn't be able to keep that secret for very long. Is that a fair assessment?
ENSOR: That has been the sort of working assumption of U.S. intelligence officials who are, of course, as you say, tracking this as closely as they can. But if he were to have been killed, most likely, most likely, some cracks would already be appearing in the seams of the regime and there would have been, for example, not as much of a show of fight on the part of the Iraqis down in the south as the fight -- as the war began.
So it was kind of a working assumption among most U.S. officials that Saddam Hussein was probably still alive, although they couldn't prove it and there were plenty who had doubts about it. Until today, U.S. officials have said they had intelligence suggesting he was killed on the 19th, intelligence suggesting he was injured and intelligence suggesting he was just fine, all of it equally valid.
Now we have this new piece of evidence with him referring to the incident with the villager, which does tend to tilt the balance to suggest that he is still alive, or was still alive when that recording was made, and that that recording was made after the serious attempt on his life on March 19.
BLITZER: All right, David, stand by for a moment. I want to bring our Rula Amin in. She is in Ruwaished (ph), on the border with Iraq in Jordan, a longtime observer of Saddam Hussein, having been to Baghdad numerous times. Rula, as you look at these latest videotapes, we've seen various versions on Abu Dhabi Television, Al Jazeera, LBC, Iraqi TV. Does this look like the real Saddam Hussein to you or an impostor?
RULA AMIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, you can never tell. We have seen so many different Saddam Husseins, at least we always think, oh, he's thinner, he's bigger, he looks -- his jaw looks different, his eyebrows look different. I can't tell any more who is the real Saddam Hussein. We don't know if this is the real Saddam Hussein.
However, people on the streets in Baghdad, this is still -- it sends them a very strong message. And they know themselves that this may not be him. But if it is him, it's still a strong message. He's telling them he's there, in control. And he's defiant. They know that he is the prime target for the U.S. forces for this war, and yet despite the heavy bombardment, he's there, out there on the street. And you can tell from the pictures you see that people are excited. Just the mere fact that he's there, they are excited about it. Doesn't mean they support him, but they're surprised. It seems they're stunned at the fact that he was out there in the open on a day like this when the U.S. troops are so close to Baghdad, less than half an hour's drive, and have just taken over Saddam International Airport -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Well, let me ask you that question then, Rula. Given the fact that the U.S. government has made no secret of the fact they'd like to kill Saddam Hussein, as the commander of the Iraqi military, going after his command and control capabilities. He's the commander. Since the first night of the war when they deliberately sought to kill him, do you think it's realistic to assume in broad daylight his security personnel would let him go out into a crowd like this with the sun shining over Baghdad at a time when he knows and his security personnel know the U.S. is itching to drop a bomb on him?
AMIN: Well, we don't know. One thing we do know, it's probably his own decision. He doesn't listen to his security guards. He doesn't listen to his security personnel. He is the ultimate decision maker in Iraq, regarding everything, including his safety. I can tell you that we recognized one of the guys behind him. It's Abud Lahmoud (ph). He is his personal secretary. He is someone who is always on his side. Never leaves him. In official meetings, in state visits, when he goes out in the field. Abid Lahmoud (ph) is always behind him. And we did see him in that picture -- Wolf.
BLITZER: So if you see him, you have to assume it might be the real Saddam Hussein, although there's nothing that suggests that this executive assistant, if you will, of Saddam Hussein might be out with an impostor either. As you look at the pictures, Rula, you see a lot of people there. You see a lot of them with machine guns. They're waving them in the sky. And you see very few security personnel. Is that normal for Saddam Hussein to go into a mob of a crowd like this with three or four bodyguards and that's it?
AMIN: It's not normal. However, I can tell you, we did see Saddam Hussein among crowds in the last few years. Usually Iraqi TV puts pictures of him visiting villages, visiting different towns. And the crowds are around him, and It looks very staged. You can tell that it's a very staged crowd. You can see the security people. You can see the intelligence there.
In these pictures, we saw only very few people in military fatigue. We don't know how many is there who are -- how many intelligence people are there who are not dressed in military fatigue. However, you can tell from their faces, the crowds that are there, that many of them are spontaneous participants, people who have just come out from their building hearing the noises, they didn't know what was happening. And you can see the surprise on their faces. I can tell you definitely people will be surprised if they see him on the streets of Baghdad. They would be astonished. Because the assumption is we have been hearing in the last two weeks that he is now in bunkers, living in bunkers. He's in Tikrit, he has just fled Baghdad. Even rumors that he has died.
So even those people who doubt that this is the real Saddam Hussein, it still does something for them, to see him there, even if it's not him, but someone like him. It does something to them, especially on a day when people in Baghdad -- I've just spoken to someone, a friend in Baghdad -- who said he spoke to a few people and many were disappointed, actually frustrated that the Iraqi forces did not fight a fierce battle around the international airport as they have been saying that they would do for the last few days. Iraqi officials have been making very strong statements, very strong rhetoric how they're going to defeat the U.S. forces, how they are prepared, how they are going to put up a huge fight. And yet the troops were able to take the airport with almost no casualties overnight.
And so people were disappointed. Iraqis are very proud people. And they felt that what is this rhetoric all about? Now, we have to remember also that these pictures, even if they are aired on Iraqi TV, many in Baghdad will not be able to see them because there's a power outage. Since last night, there's no electricity in most of the Iraqi capital. Some areas got the electricity back a few hours ago, but many areas still don't have any electricity. They won't be able to see this on their TVs. They may be able to hear about it through Iraqi radio or other radios that they tune into to get some kind of information, more information in order to know what the happening around them -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Rula, please stand by. I want to continue to show our viewers these pictures of Saddam Hussein purportedly in a crowd of supporters in Baghdad being mobbed by these Iraqis.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
