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Have Democrats Become Gun Shy?
Aired May 15, 2003 - 15:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: We've been hearing a good deal about Republicans jockeying over extending a ban on assault weapons, but some voices have been notably absent from the debate. Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, is with us.
Bill, as we heard from Kate Snow a little while ago, the Democrats are shying away. What's happened to the Democrats on this?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Judy, a lot of Democrats have become gun shy. They think the gun control issue is a nonstarter. Here's what a couple of them said at a press conference today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TOM MILLER (D), IOWA ATTORNEY GENERAL: I think Democrats are better positioned to contribute more to the country to continue to fight the tax cuts as opposed to the issue of assault weapons.
GOV. MARK WARNER (D), VIRGINIA: I don't think shifting the debate back on an issue -- you know, shifting the debate back on to a gun control issue is going to, at least in southern states and many mid western states, is going to move the Democrats forward.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCHNEIDER: Democrats got badly burned after Congress passed the assault weapons ban in 1994. It was one of the main issues that drove the Republican takeover of Congress. In fact, most Americans do support the assault weapons ban. But gun owners have intensity going for them.
They vote the issue. Most other voters don't. In the 1994 election, the vote for Congress among gun owners nationwide was 69 to 29 percent Republican. Every time Democrats sponsor a gun control measure, they rally gun owners against them.
WOODRUFF: Bill, what about for President Bush? Is it smart politics for him to support an extension of this ban on assault weapons, whether it's a technicality or not, as we just heard from our guests?
SCHNEIDER: Well, I actually think it is. There's a rule here. The smaller the constituency, the more intensity matters.
In a large and diverse constituency, extensiveness begins to weigh in. It works like this: most people favor the assault weapons ban, but the issue doesn't matter to many of them the way it does to most gun owners. However, as your constituency gets larger, you can find more people who care about gun control. Enough to counterbalance the gun owners.
Look at the House and Senate votes on the assault weapons ban in 1993 and in 1994. The House vote was extremely close. The ban passed by just two votes. It passed the Senate much more easily.
Senators represent states. They have larger, more diverse constituencies than House members. Extensive public support for gun control begins to outweigh the intense commitment of gun owners.
Now who has the largest and most diverse constituency of all? The president of the United States -- Judy.
WOODRUFF: And I wonder if they've thought through all those calculations. All right, over at the White House, Bill Schneider. Thanks very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired May 15, 2003 - 15:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: We've been hearing a good deal about Republicans jockeying over extending a ban on assault weapons, but some voices have been notably absent from the debate. Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, is with us.
Bill, as we heard from Kate Snow a little while ago, the Democrats are shying away. What's happened to the Democrats on this?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Judy, a lot of Democrats have become gun shy. They think the gun control issue is a nonstarter. Here's what a couple of them said at a press conference today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TOM MILLER (D), IOWA ATTORNEY GENERAL: I think Democrats are better positioned to contribute more to the country to continue to fight the tax cuts as opposed to the issue of assault weapons.
GOV. MARK WARNER (D), VIRGINIA: I don't think shifting the debate back on an issue -- you know, shifting the debate back on to a gun control issue is going to, at least in southern states and many mid western states, is going to move the Democrats forward.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCHNEIDER: Democrats got badly burned after Congress passed the assault weapons ban in 1994. It was one of the main issues that drove the Republican takeover of Congress. In fact, most Americans do support the assault weapons ban. But gun owners have intensity going for them.
They vote the issue. Most other voters don't. In the 1994 election, the vote for Congress among gun owners nationwide was 69 to 29 percent Republican. Every time Democrats sponsor a gun control measure, they rally gun owners against them.
WOODRUFF: Bill, what about for President Bush? Is it smart politics for him to support an extension of this ban on assault weapons, whether it's a technicality or not, as we just heard from our guests?
SCHNEIDER: Well, I actually think it is. There's a rule here. The smaller the constituency, the more intensity matters.
In a large and diverse constituency, extensiveness begins to weigh in. It works like this: most people favor the assault weapons ban, but the issue doesn't matter to many of them the way it does to most gun owners. However, as your constituency gets larger, you can find more people who care about gun control. Enough to counterbalance the gun owners.
Look at the House and Senate votes on the assault weapons ban in 1993 and in 1994. The House vote was extremely close. The ban passed by just two votes. It passed the Senate much more easily.
Senators represent states. They have larger, more diverse constituencies than House members. Extensive public support for gun control begins to outweigh the intense commitment of gun owners.
Now who has the largest and most diverse constituency of all? The president of the United States -- Judy.
WOODRUFF: And I wonder if they've thought through all those calculations. All right, over at the White House, Bill Schneider. Thanks very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
