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Frank Newport Discusses Latest Gallup Poll Numbers
Aired May 27, 2003 - 15:07 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, hopes for Middle East peace have been raised before and then dashed. Are Americans optimistic about progress this time around? We're joined by Gallup Poll editor- in-chief, Frank Newport. Frank, first of all, what is the best sense that we have about public opinion on this peace process at this point?
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well Judy, let me summarize it, what we've been seeing. I've looked over a lot of polling that's been done on the Middle East, and three basic points.
First of all, Americans think it is important that Bush, the administration, the U.S. in general is involved in the Middle East. That very important number we've tracked over the years is actually down some from last year. But when you say very or somewhat important, we've got over eight out of 10 Americans saying, yes, it is important. So a little question about that.
Second, a key element of all of this, the instate of the road map, the creation of a Palestinian state. I'll show you a little more about this in a minute. I've looked at nine separate polls of Americans. All of them show -- at least a plurality say yes to the idea of a Palestinian state.
Third, not much has changed in terms of basic sympathies. We've asked this 24 times, believe it or not, over the last decade. More with the Israelis? More with the Palestinians? Your sympathies to the American public, it's always Israel.
The numbers go up and down some. But clearly, still in our latest poll just a week or so ago, it's Israel. By the way, Republicans and conservatives most likely to be sympathetic to Israel. That's an interesting story in and of itself.
Here's that Palestinian state question from last year. But I think it's very germane right now, because it said, if the violence stops in Israel, if the Palestinians stop the suicide bombings, favor or oppose a Palestinian state? And Judy, 74 to 18, not much question about it. The public is all in favor of the ultimate instate of this road map.
WOODRUFF: Well, Frank, how optimistic are people, are Americans that a peace plan can actually be accomplished?
NEWPORT: Well, we keep hearing little tremors of optimism perhaps from the administration, that Bush may actually show up there. The public's caught up on some of that. We asked a very interesting question. Will there ever be a time when there is peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and Arabs? And you can see how depressed these numbers were.
At one point, like in August 2001, just 32 percent of Americans said yes. But now we've asked it, over a majority. Judy, 51 percent say yes. So a little optimism on the part of the average American.
WOODRUFF: And Frank, last, If the president does end up having this meeting with the Israeli and the Palestinian prime ministers, is there any way to know what effect that would have on the president's standing here at home?
NEWPORT: Well, you know, you're as much an expert probably on that as I, Judy. You've followed it so much over the years, that presidential approval rating. It's on its way down now.
This is the big graph of his whole administration. Of course, the big jump up after 9/11, a jump up when the Iraqi war started. That was 70, 72 percent.
Now it's down to 66 percent on the right, so it is beginning to slope down. I think it will ultimately probably come back into the 50 percent range. But, in answer to your question, it's possible, something dramatic out of the Middle East if he's there, photo opportunities show him with the two prime ministers. We could have at least a temporary bump up.
WOODRUFF: OK. Frank Newport, the man we talk to when we're looking at these numbers. Thanks a lot, Frank.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired May 27, 2003 - 15:07 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, hopes for Middle East peace have been raised before and then dashed. Are Americans optimistic about progress this time around? We're joined by Gallup Poll editor- in-chief, Frank Newport. Frank, first of all, what is the best sense that we have about public opinion on this peace process at this point?
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well Judy, let me summarize it, what we've been seeing. I've looked over a lot of polling that's been done on the Middle East, and three basic points.
First of all, Americans think it is important that Bush, the administration, the U.S. in general is involved in the Middle East. That very important number we've tracked over the years is actually down some from last year. But when you say very or somewhat important, we've got over eight out of 10 Americans saying, yes, it is important. So a little question about that.
Second, a key element of all of this, the instate of the road map, the creation of a Palestinian state. I'll show you a little more about this in a minute. I've looked at nine separate polls of Americans. All of them show -- at least a plurality say yes to the idea of a Palestinian state.
Third, not much has changed in terms of basic sympathies. We've asked this 24 times, believe it or not, over the last decade. More with the Israelis? More with the Palestinians? Your sympathies to the American public, it's always Israel.
The numbers go up and down some. But clearly, still in our latest poll just a week or so ago, it's Israel. By the way, Republicans and conservatives most likely to be sympathetic to Israel. That's an interesting story in and of itself.
Here's that Palestinian state question from last year. But I think it's very germane right now, because it said, if the violence stops in Israel, if the Palestinians stop the suicide bombings, favor or oppose a Palestinian state? And Judy, 74 to 18, not much question about it. The public is all in favor of the ultimate instate of this road map.
WOODRUFF: Well, Frank, how optimistic are people, are Americans that a peace plan can actually be accomplished?
NEWPORT: Well, we keep hearing little tremors of optimism perhaps from the administration, that Bush may actually show up there. The public's caught up on some of that. We asked a very interesting question. Will there ever be a time when there is peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and Arabs? And you can see how depressed these numbers were.
At one point, like in August 2001, just 32 percent of Americans said yes. But now we've asked it, over a majority. Judy, 51 percent say yes. So a little optimism on the part of the average American.
WOODRUFF: And Frank, last, If the president does end up having this meeting with the Israeli and the Palestinian prime ministers, is there any way to know what effect that would have on the president's standing here at home?
NEWPORT: Well, you know, you're as much an expert probably on that as I, Judy. You've followed it so much over the years, that presidential approval rating. It's on its way down now.
This is the big graph of his whole administration. Of course, the big jump up after 9/11, a jump up when the Iraqi war started. That was 70, 72 percent.
Now it's down to 66 percent on the right, so it is beginning to slope down. I think it will ultimately probably come back into the 50 percent range. But, in answer to your question, it's possible, something dramatic out of the Middle East if he's there, photo opportunities show him with the two prime ministers. We could have at least a temporary bump up.
WOODRUFF: OK. Frank Newport, the man we talk to when we're looking at these numbers. Thanks a lot, Frank.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
